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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time
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First!0
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Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......
Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?0 -
There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.MikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/10196964534454067240 -
I thought for a moment you meant the party leaders, and I was going to say I didn't think either Corbyn or Cable would be flattered by your description of them...especially as technically neither of them are public schoolboys.Roger said:A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......
Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?0 -
The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?0
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Is there not some HoC sanction for such deception?Roger said:A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......
Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?0 -
Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.williamglenn said:
There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.MikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/10196964534454067240 -
But he is the cousin of ZARBRoyalBlue said:
Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.
ZARB knows all
BOW DOWN TO ZARB0 -
Even the most staunch Leavers have impure thoughts about second referendums from time to time.RoyalBlue said:
Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.williamglenn said:
There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.MikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1019696453445406724
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How many seats did CON gain from LAB which had voted REMAIN in 2017 ?MikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
I do agree with you that insofar as votes in a General Election are concerned, Brexit has much less traction for Labour voters than Tories. We forget that in many northern Labour seats, a sizable number of WWC voters always voted Tory or later UKIP.0 -
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A Momentum is gathering steam. No pun intended.Scott_P said:0 -
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My concern with a second referendum is that it validates the utter dysfunction of Parliament and May's idiotic strategy.
I want May and her omnishambolic cabinet to own their 55-car-pile-up-on-the-M25 of a negotiation, and a second referendum gives them a get-out-of-jail-free card.
NO.0 -
No chance of that backfiring is there....Scott_P said:0 -
In the run up to the euRef Corbyn campaigned consistently on a "Remain but Reform" platform. Unfortunately, there was a virtual media blackout on his activities at the time and it took some time to actually find any reports, until I found one at the end of a particularly anti Corbyn article in the normally pro Labour Mirror. There seemed to be more on his holiday taken (3 day weekend away) about a month before the vote (although I did wonder what holidays were taken over that period by that hard-working PM Cameron. LOL! ).HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.0
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Brexit will surely have to be delayed. No responsible government should stick with this 'aggressive timeline' when so much time has been used up just bickering. There's no shame in it. The government kept delaying the roll-out of IDS's universal credit, did it not? Brexit is far more important, so they can be flexible.0
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May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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We haven't had a responsible Government since the referendumStark_Dawning said:Brexit will surely have to be delayed. No responsible government should stick with this 'aggressive timeline'
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Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.0 -
If that is her plan - by accident or design - it is some plan !williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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It's good to know that Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf is alive and well and still causing harmless merriment over appalling tragedies.0
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George Osborne’s always good for a unattributed quote, I see.Scott_P said:0 -
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.0 -
Remember that May will get what she wants in the end; the challenge as always is to work out what on Earth it might be that she wants.surby said:
If that is her plan - by accident or design - it is some plan !williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
It's quite possible that May will in the end be forced to offer another referendum but this is because she has no other way out of the dilemma into which she has boxed herself. The idea that it is all part of grand strategy is a little far fetched IMO!williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.HYUFD said:
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
Here it is:
https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/0 -
Fascinating article by Chuka in the Evening Standard tonight in which he is absolutely contemptuous about Corbyn and his failure to support staying in the single market and back a 'people's vote' on the final deal. He is as scathing about the Labour leadership as he is about the government and Tory Brexiteers and Labour Leave rebelsgrabcocque said:The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/we-must-be-brave-enough-to-give-the-people-a-final-say-on-any-brexit-deal-a3891246.html?amp0 -
Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platformwilliamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platformwilliamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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......Sarah Montague questioning Simon Jacques BBC business editor about the possibility of a no-deal during the lunchtime news He said big business and small think this is "absolutely catastrophic" and he explains why.
Whether the news will spread to the nail bars of Hartlepool I don't know but it sounded terrifying. (From 22 mins onward)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9v6yr0 -
The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.Scott_P said:0 -
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You're going to eat Remainers?Philip_Thompson said:The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.
Seems harsh, but once the food riots start, I guess...0 -
Not exactly the most rebellious of MPs.Scott_P said:0 -
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Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labourjustin124 said:
Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?0
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That still ends those negotiations well before the 2022 general electionwilliamglenn said:
Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platformwilliamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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Having signed the backstop, if he wants to pursue a hard Brexit it will mean betraying the DUP, so you might find the election comes much sooner...HYUFD said:
That still ends those negotiations well before the 2022 general electionwilliamglenn said:
Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platformwilliamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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Disregarding the rights and wrongs of a second referendum, calling it a 'Peopl's Vote' is daft. How is this one any more of a "people's" vote than last time?Scott_P said:0 -
Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarioussurby said:
You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.HYUFD said:
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
Here it is:
https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/0 -
We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
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I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.Scott_P said:0 -
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But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.HYUFD said:
Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labourjustin124 said:
Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
Exactly. What are the arguments that a new "Remain" campaign would use to convince Leave voters? As of now, it seems like they would just repeat the same stuff from last time, louder, with a subtext of "you were bloody idiots last time, now put it right".rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
Honestly, in a way, I have more respect for people who advocate politicians just ignoring the referendum result.... atleast they would actually get to where they want in the end, as incredibly patronising as they are towards Brexit voters. Whereas the "People's Vote" lot are just as patronising but also too stupid/naive to realise that their route wouldn't work and would just be a waste of everyone's time.0 -
This.grabcocque said:The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?
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It's OK, Hungary is a bit niche for most.....AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Best of five, and so on until the stupid proles do their betters’ bidding...rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
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With all the news channels now leading with Tories not only being incompetent but also cheats I'm starting to feel sorry for them.Scott_P said:
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Unusual for me to say this, but I fully agree with Justin. In fact, the key to Corbyn's success in 2017 was that he fought it on domestic issues - tuition fees, education, the NHS, public spending, end of life care, and he fought it cunningly and well based on appealing to voters in Labour seats and a few swing seats.justin124 said:
But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.HYUFD said:
Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labourjustin124 said:
Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
He did of course tell straightforward and implausible lies on all of those, but May was too busy talking about a hard Brexit to notice that actually, people did like the idea of massive amounts of money dropping into their pockets for nothing in return.0 -
Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
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I doubt Corbyn has changed his shirt in 35 years....HYUFD said:
Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarioussurby said:
You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.HYUFD said:
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
Here it is:
https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/0 -
Benpointer said:
We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
Problems will be found. The BBC was biased. Russia interfered. Etc etcCarlottaVance said:
Best of five, and so on until the stupid proles do their betters’ bidding...rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
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I, for one, will go down with the HMS UK ship, come what may.AlastairMeeks said:
It's nice to see people consoling themselves with the thought of a second referendum though. Bless.0 -
If knowledge of the subject were a requirement for posting, he'd have a lot more spare time.surby said:
You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.HYUFD said:
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
Here it is:
https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/0 -
No, that would have been they're dogging him as his career disappears down the bunny hole...Danny565 said:
Edit - I know nobody will believe me, but the double entendre in the last two words was unintentional!0 -
May's dismissal of it sounded shrill and defensive, i.e. it's not happening under my leadership but as soon as I've done my public duty to the country, I'll step down and you can have one.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
By definition, if she's playing a long game, it won't be obvious until it's checkmate. I have my doubts but William G seems to think this is happening.0 -
Yes he could be blackballed from every bar restaurant and bridge club in the placeBenpointer said:
Is there not some HoC sanction for such deception?Roger said:A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......
Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?0 -
If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:
a) May's eventual deal and
b) no deal.
The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.
Almost.0 -
It would not be an escape hatch it would guarantee a Corbyn win through Tory to UKIP defectionsWhisperingOracle said:
Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
0 -
They voted for Brexit and UKIP to cut immigration then for Corbyn to cut austerity as he promised to respect their LEAVE vote and leave the single marketjustin124 said:
But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.HYUFD said:
Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labourjustin124 said:
Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single marketMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March0 -
There's more protein on them than babies.Scott_P said:
You're going to eat Remainers?Philip_Thompson said:The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.
Seems harsh, but once the food riots start, I guess...0 -
Yes. Perfect for her. She stays in charge, then can hand it all over.rural_voter said:
May's dismissal of it sounded shrill and defensive, i.e. it's not happening under my leadership but as soon as I've done my public duty to the country, I'll step down and you can have one.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
By definition, if she's playing a long game, it won't be obvious until it's checkmate. I have my doubts but William G seems to think this is happening.0 -
8. If it ain't hurting, it ain't working.Scott_P said:
First Cuckoo of the post-Brexit spring, I'll vouch.0 -
The ERG are successfully working to reduce the chances of a deal, and are consolidating their influence over the Tory parlamentary party. That means the probably more likely options are status quo ante, or no deal.MarqueeMark said:If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:
a) May's eventual deal and
b) no deal.
The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.
Almost.0 -
Well actually he's smartened up considerably. I think perhaps there's a metaphor there, in waiting, for his political views too.MarqueeMark said:
I doubt Corbyn has changed his shirt in 35 years....HYUFD said:
Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarioussurby said:
You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.HYUFD said:
It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbynsurby said:Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.
If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.
The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
Here it is:
https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/
His increased attention to laundry clearly wasn't his own work. With the appropriate degree of heavy ironing we'll make a Tory of him yet.0 -
Correct. And this is what remainers are aiming for, they hope to use the ERG to destroy any hope of a deal and then effectively have a rerun of the 2016 referendum and get a different result. And that strategy looks sound at the moment.WhisperingOracle said:
The ERG are successfully working to reduce the chances of a deal, and are consolidating their influence over the Tory parlamentary party. That means the probably more likely options are status quo ante, or no deal.MarqueeMark said:If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:
a) May's eventual deal and
b) no deal.
The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.
Almost.0 -
We don’t have a Syriza government.MarqueeMark said:If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:
a) May's eventual deal and
b) no deal.
The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.
Almost.0 -
I agree with @rkrkrk on this whole ‘people’s vote’ idea - I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see Leave win again. That would kill off Remain for a generation. If you want us back in the EU after Brexit, that’s not exactly ideal.0
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We have a Theresa government.williamglenn said:
We don’t have a Syriza government.MarqueeMark said:If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:
a) May's eventual deal and
b) no deal.
The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.
Almost.0 -
Justin is spot on. May wanted a Brexit election, but Jezza fought on other turf, on generational inequality and austerity. Last year's election was for a population bored of Brexit, which is a large part of why the Lib Dems flopped, along with Tories and UKIP.ydoethur said:
Unusual for me to say this, but I fully agree with Justin. In fact, the key to Corbyn's success in 2017 was that he fought it on domestic issues - tuition fees, education, the NHS, public spending, end of life care, and he fought it cunningly and well based on appealing to voters in Labour seats and a few swing seats.justin124 said:
But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.HYUFD said:
Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labourjustin124 said:
Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.HYUFD said:
NMikeSmithson said:
That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.HYUFD said:Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.
Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
He did of course tell straightforward and implausible lies on all of those, but May was too busy talking about a hard Brexit to notice that actually, people did like the idea of massive amounts of money dropping into their pockets for nothing in return.
I suspect that this was accident rather than design, but Jezza is simply not that bothered about Brexit as an issue.0 -
It's not a terrible strategy but it has two massive wildcards: May's erratic behaviour and a febrile electorate clearly willing to watch the world burn.anothernick said:
Correct. And this is what remainers are aiming for, they hope to use the ERG to destroy any hope of a deal and then effectively have a rerun of the 2016 referendum and get a different result. And that strategy looks sound at the moment.0 -
If there were a fresh referendum, I might well abstain. Remaining in the EU while the country is split essentially in two would be unhealthy on both sides. Only if the matter would be decisively settled would it be worth having a new vote.0
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Risking no deal/hard Brexit for a (40%, 30%???) shot at reversing the result is a bad idea.Benpointer said:
We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
0 -
Apartheid in Israel. Who would have guessed? You can understand why Jeremy might find it easier to walk through the eye of a needle than comment on Netanyahu's Likud government and stay on the right side of the IRHA's definition of antisemitism0
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I don't see why people are so eager to let Parliament off the hook.AlastairMeeks said:If there were a fresh referendum, I might well abstain. Remaining in the EU while the country is split essentially in two would be unhealthy on both sides. Only if the matter would be decisively settled would it be worth having a new vote.
This Parliament was elected, just over a year ago, and over 2/3rds of the seats went to parties that promised:
* To leave the European Union
* To negotiate a deal that ensured friction-free trade with the European Union
There is NO EXCUSE for a Parliament where 2/3rds of the members were elected on the same platform to be so inexcusably dysfunctional.
And it's not our job as the electorate to bail them out. We elected you, now DO THE JOB YOU WERE ELECTED TO DO.
And if you fail, we will exact our vengeance at the next election.0 -
May has to be willing to jettison 75% of Conservative voters and members to frustrate Brexit.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.williamglenn said:
May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.AlastairMeeks said:The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
That's quite a gamble.0 -
No deal might be the fastest resolution of the disaster. Leavers would have no hiding place and xenophobic isolation would be brought into disrepute. It would cause a lot of pain and misery, but fortunately that would be disproportionately felt by the groups that voted for Brexit.rkrkrk said:
Risking no deal/hard Brexit for a (40%, 30%???) shot at reversing the result is a bad idea.Benpointer said:
We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.rkrkrk said:Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
That said, it would probably also lead to a hard left government in the short term, so “fastest” has to be understood to be a matter of decades rather than months.0
