The reason Brexit is in such an unholy mess and this argument is not going away is that it pretty much impossible to achieve without incurring economic damage.
In itself, Brexit is easy. It's the Brexit with an economy that's hard.
Reality, when it bites. Bites hard.
It has nothing to do with elites or campaigns on Twitter. It's much more fundamental.
Yes. And this is an existential problem for the Tories as a party of supposed economic pragmatism, that may destroy them.
Think Black Wednesday's (also coming out of a European mechanism and with only short term disruption) impact on Tory economic credibility and multiply by ten
Black Wednesday was a good thing.
What destroyed Tory credibility was trying and failing to prevent it. So if a hard Brexit is coming and will be like Black Wednesday then the lesson surely is to embrace it. Welcome it. Own it.
No deal might be the fastest resolution of the disaster. Leavers would have no hiding place and xenophobic isolation would be brought into disrepute. It would cause a lot of pain and misery, but fortunately that would be disproportionately felt by the groups that voted for Brexit.
That said, it would probably also lead to a hard left government in the short term, so “fastest” has to be understood to be a matter of decades rather than months.
It can't be stressed enough that the way the Brexit omnishambles is progressing must be pretty close to being Corbyn's dream outcome.
And it's all down to the self-indulgent career-driven political pygmies at the top of today's Tory Party - Cameron, Johnson and May in particular. History will bracket them with the appeasers of the 1930s, people who ignored hard realities to gain cheap approbation from the party and in doing so came close to destroying the peaceful, tolerant country that is the UK.
Brexit is not something that was inflicted upon an unwilling population by a remote elite. Look at the Nat Cen numbers. Eurosceptic views went from 40% in 1992 to 69% by 2017. That isn't just old people, nostalgic for the Empire. It was a very big change in public opinion. The Conservatives turned eurosceptic for the same reason they dropped Section 28 and introduced gay marriage; the public's views changed.
Yes. And appeasement was very popular, as witness the cheering crowds that greeted Chamberlain when he returned from Munich. But they soon realised they had been conned, Chamberlain had been naive to take Hitler at his word and talk of peace in our time was a cruel deception.
The same applies to Brexit - certainly it was popular but as we appproach the cliff edge people will realise they have been conned and talk of a brave new global Britain was just as cruel a deception as appeasement. And then there will be a search for scapegoats, and leading Brexiteers will be at the top of the list.
Hang on. The last referendum has been THE defining corrosive political event of my lifetime. A second is dealing with the nightmare that already exists.
You mean people having their say for the first time in decades has been corrosive to the liberal elites because they don't want to implement the result they were given by the people.
Telling 17m people that their vote doesn't matter would be the end of democracy. Westminster must find a way to implement the result or it will die.
First post but had to give my two cents.
This is totally correct. But the argument that Chequers is not brexit is a powerful one which means a hard brexit with no deal is far more likely than anybody expects.** This brexit WILL cause economic (and possibly social) turmoil for at least 1-2 years. This will result in the disintegration of the ‘Conservative’ party as a force for a generation and labour will come to power for the foreseeable future. Now with Corbyn as leader (and impossible to replace) and a left wing manifesto, it’s likely that MPs would break away in huge numbers to form a centrist alternative. This would herald the beginning of continental coalition politics, and frankly we should have caught up to our European friends with this years ago. The conservatives will likely do the same, but the hard brexit faction would merge with UKIP and become a far right footnote in the history books.
This route is probably the only way the country becomes governable again. The two party system is clearly on death row.
** whatever you hear in the headlines, business is not prepared for this. I work in finance and apart from the odd water cooler joke about moving to Geneva (either hard brexit or Corbyn), nobody is contingency planning in a serious capacity.
Ironically, the Europeans are moving away from Centrism.
I think one illuminating point is that in the past people have talked about a second vote or a general election.
Just imagine the latter, a General Election. How on Earth could that work today? The parties couldn't put together a manifesto supported by their own MPs. And if they did it would be a fudge and with no distance between the parties. A General Election would not be a meaningful vote.
So we need to face up to the fact that the familiar party system is dead. The big questions are whether that is temporary or a permanent change and what individual MPs will do.
The reason Brexit is in such an unholy mess and this argument is not going away is that it pretty much impossible to achieve without incurring economic damage.
In itself, Brexit is easy. It's the Brexit with an economy that's hard.
Reality, when it bites. Bites hard.
It has nothing to do with elites or campaigns on Twitter. It's much more fundamental.
Yes. And this is an existential problem for the Tories as a party of supposed economic pragmatism, that may destroy them.
Think Black Wednesday's (also coming out of a European mechanism and with only short term disruption) impact on Tory economic credibility and multiply by ten
Black Wednesday was a good thing.
What destroyed Tory credibility was trying and failing to prevent it. So if a hard Brexit is coming and will be like Black Wednesday then the lesson surely is to embrace it. Welcome it. Own it.
A Hard Brexit would be absolutely nothing like Black Wednesday. The impact of Black Wednesday was mainly psychological and it gave people an event to pin on the Conservatives and associate any other economic pain with that, whether or not it was really related.
I think one illuminating point is that in the past people have talked about a second vote or a general election.
Just imagine the latter, a General Election. How on Earth could that work today? The parties couldn't put together a manifesto supported by their own MPs. And if they did it would be a fudge and with no distance between the parties. A General Election would not be a meaningful vote.
So we need to face up to the fact that the familiar party system is dead. The big questions are whether that is temporary or a permanent change and what individual MPs will do.
The Tories managed it last time, as did Labour. MPs' positions haven't changed in the interim.
I am going to the north of Scotland tomorrow to family for ten days and I could come home to a Country without a government
My party should hang its head in shame as it destructs with ideologs at each end
But labour are no better, no idea on Brexit, a leader who would be a disaster for NATO and our defences, before I start on his economics, and shameful anti - semitic behaviour.
What have we done to deserve this disaster and loss of respect abroad.
I absolutely have no time for ERG extreme Brexit, indeed I am coming round to a second referendum where we vote conclusively to stay in and preserve the Union
And before HYUFD tells me I am not a proper conservative I have values that my party always stood for, not only low taxes but avid pro business and influence in the World. Look at the pound collapse over the last few days just as voters are going abroad on holiday. They are going to be very angry at how much more their holidays are costing
He will tell me to clear off to the Lib Dems but I will not be threatened by the right who have got us into this mess and will stay and fight against their dangerous course for our Country.
He will tell me Corbyn will get in as UKIP leave us. Well my answer to that is good riddance and I also reject his constant mantra that the conservatives can only win with UKIP
We have done so before and will again
Great post Big_G, actually quite moving.
This is an existential crisis for the UK with no easy way out.
If we adopt hard Brexit there will be a period of economic pain and hardship that will imo very likely lead to the break-up of the Union.
If we revert to Remain without a decisive 2nd vote in favour 17m people will feel disenfranchised and disenchantment with the EU and Westminster will only grow.
A Chequers style soft-Brexit has a fair chance of pleasing no one.
I think one illuminating point is that in the past people have talked about a second vote or a general election.
Just imagine the latter, a General Election. How on Earth could that work today? The parties couldn't put together a manifesto supported by their own MPs. And if they did it would be a fudge and with no distance between the parties. A General Election would not be a meaningful vote.
So we need to face up to the fact that the familiar party system is dead. The big questions are whether that is temporary or a permanent change and what individual MPs will do.
The Tories managed it last time, as did Labour. MPs' positions haven't changed in the interim.
Managed what? Was it a meaningful vote on Brexit last time? Did it clear the air? No. That's part of the reason we're in the current mess. It was all fudge. Which 12 months ago they could get away with. But now? Really? No.
The Telegraph readership has collapsed because it has lost any semblance of being a serious publication. It's getting close to Express levels of silliness.
I think one illuminating point is that in the past people have talked about a second vote or a general election.
Just imagine the latter, a General Election. How on Earth could that work today? The parties couldn't put together a manifesto supported by their own MPs. And if they did it would be a fudge and with no distance between the parties. A General Election would not be a meaningful vote.
So we need to face up to the fact that the familiar party system is dead. The big questions are whether that is temporary or a permanent change and what individual MPs will do.
The Tories managed it last time, as did Labour. MPs' positions haven't changed in the interim.
Managed what? Was it a meaningful vote on Brexit last time? Did it clear the air? No. That's part of the reason we're in the current mess. It was all fudge. Which 12 months ago they could get away with. But now? Really? No.
I was mainly commenting on your assertion that the two party system is dead. And the last election showed, another general election would probably be focused on issues like housing or the NHS, rather than Europe.
A vote on the Deal is rational, sensible, pragmatic, and democratic.
And it will be deal or no deal.
How sweet. The village idiot thinks that a referendum would leave Parliament without a Remain option.
First you need the government to back a second referendum with or without the opposition - and unlike in 2016 there is no manifesto commitment to rely on. And then the Lords would need to sign up. And they would all need to agree how it would work.
And before all that process starts someone would need to decide what the question or options would be. While Greening's idea of a three option AV style vote is a nice idea it would involve using a voting system we rejected in the second most recent UK wide referendum to potentially overturn a position we agreed on in the most recent UK wide referendum. How very democratic! So why after ignoring two referendums should we respect the third?
The decision on leaving has been made - as Noel Edmonds used to say it's deal or no deal. And if there is another vote I cannot see the Tories agreeing to a remain option.
It's all theoretical anyway as I doubt May or Corbyn will agree to one - the last one almost resulted in Corbyn being ousted as most of his shadow cabinet quit and as we know May hates campaigning.
So I expect we will agree a last minute deal and go into transition. And May can then retire to Sonning.
Hang on. The last referendum has been THE defining corrosive political event of my lifetime. A second is dealing with the nightmare that already exists.
You mean people having their say for the first time in decades has been corrosive to the liberal elites because they don't want to implement the result they were given by the people.
Telling 17m people that their vote doesn't matter would be the end of democracy. Westminster must find a way to implement the result or it will die.
First post but had to give my two cents.
This is totally correct. But the argument that Chequers is not brexit is a powerful one which means a hard brexit with no deal is far more likely than anybody expects.** This brexit WILL cause economic (and possibly social) turmoil for at least 1-2 years. This will result in the disintegration of the ‘Conservative’ party as a force for a generation and labour will come to power for the foreseeable future. Now with Corbyn as leader (and impossible to replace) and a left wing manifesto, it’s likely that MPs would break away in huge numbers to form a centrist alternative. This would herald the beginning of continental coalition politics, and frankly we should have caught up to our European friends with this years ago. The conservatives will likely do the same, but the hard brexit faction would merge with UKIP and become a far right footnote in the history books.
This route is probably the only way the country becomes governable again. The two party system is clearly on death row.
** whatever you hear in the headlines, business is not prepared for this. I work in finance and apart from the odd water cooler joke about moving to Geneva (either hard brexit or Corbyn), nobody is contingency planning in a serious capacity.
The Telegraph readership has collapsed because it has lost any semblance of being a serious publication. It's getting close to Express levels of silliness.
It seems almost a dream to remember the informed and intelligent Telegraph of the 90s.
What have we done to deserve this disaster and loss of respect abroad.
There were multiple bad decisions by Major, then Blair, then Cameron that got us in to this mess.
Their mistakes are dwarfed by the catastrophic populist claptrap peddled by an ideological right drunk on nostalgia.
Cameron´s mistake was to think these forces could be faced down.
Cameron's mistake was not to try to face these forces down. Instead he pandered to them, withdrawing the Tories from the EPP, giving credence to the possibility of leaving by refusing to rule it out, criticising the EU at every turn and allowing a climate of scepticism to become endemic in the Tory Party. Instead of confronting the ultras with the realities of the situation he pretended to be undecided between remain and leave before obtaining his "deal" and hobbled his own referendum campaign by refusing to allow direct criticism of leading leavers in the interest of (don't laugh) party unity. He more than anyone else is responsible for the disastrous mess in which his country and his party now find themselves.
At what point was he going to turn around and face these forces down? He was up against not only the sceptics in his own party, but most of the then powerful print media. He ultimately took the stance he did because he realised that he had no choice.
No one was enthusiastic about the EU, not even him, which culimanated in the crap remain campaign which couldn't come up with a single positive reason to vote to stay in the EU that wasn't patronising or trivial.
Brexit feels like the democratic expression of something that was boiling below the surface for years.
A vote on the Deal would have the added advantage (in my view) of putting Corbyn in a spot.
Yes, the mistake he's likely to make is to hold out too long in the hope of forcing a General Election when the deal is voted down. He risks being outflanked by May.
No deal might be the fastest resolution of the disaster. Leavers would have no hiding place and xenophobic isolation would be brought into disrepute. It would cause a lot of pain and misery, but fortunately that would be disproportionately felt by the groups that voted for Brexit.
That said, it would probably also lead to a hard left government in the short term, so “fastest” has to be understood to be a matter of decades rather than months.
It can't be stressed enough that the way the Brexit omnishambles is progressing must be pretty close to being Corbyn's dream outcome.
And it's all down to the self-indulgent career-driven political pygmies at the top of today's Tory Party - Cameron, Johnson and May in particular. History will bracket them with the appeasers of the 1930s, people who ignored hard realities to gain cheap approbation from the party and in doing so came close to destroying the peaceful, tolerant country that is the UK.
Brexit is not something that was inflicted upon an unwilling population by a remote elite. Look at the Nat Cen numbers. Eurosceptic views went from 40% in 1992 to 69% by 2017. That isn't just old people, nostalgic for the Empire. It was a very big change in public opinion. The Conservatives turned eurosceptic for the same reason they dropped Section 28 and introduced gay marriage; the public's views changed.
Three things happened and coincided - a hugely influential and 25 year-long campaign against Europe in the press came to maturity at exactly the moment of the 2015 refugee crisis and Eurozone crisis.
Maybe if the Conservatives had spent 25 years arguing that the EU was great, things might have been different, but I think in reality they'd have been reduced to a fringe party, left behind by shifts inpublic opinion, like the pre war Liberals.
Maybe if all the UK parties had accepted the EU as an opportunity rather than as a side line embarrassment to their greatness, and that of Westminster, then things might have been different. Quite a few EU governments absorbed their MEP's into their decision making, while ours ignored them.
The reason Brexit is in such an unholy mess and this argument is not going away is that it pretty much impossible to achieve without incurring economic damage.
In itself, Brexit is easy. It's the Brexit with an economy that's hard.
Reality, when it bites. Bites hard.
It has nothing to do with elites or campaigns on Twitter. It's much more fundamental.
Yes. And this is an existential problem for the Tories as a party of supposed economic pragmatism, that may destroy them.
Think Black Wednesday's (also coming out of a European mechanism and with only short term disruption) impact on Tory economic credibility and multiply by ten
Black Wednesday was a good thing.
What destroyed Tory credibility was trying and failing to prevent it. So if a hard Brexit is coming and will be like Black Wednesday then the lesson surely is to embrace it. Welcome it. Own it.
What have we done to deserve this disaster and loss of respect abroad.
There were multiple bad decisions by Major, then Blair, then Cameron that got us in to this mess.
Their mistakes are dwarfed by the catastrophic populist claptrap peddled by an ideological right drunk on nostalgia.
Cameron´s mistake was to think these forces could be faced down.
Cameron's mistake was not to try to face these forces down. Instead he pandered to them, withdrawing the Tories from the EPP, giving credence to the possibility of leaving by refusing to rule it out, criticising the EU at every turn and allowing a climate of scepticism to become endemic in the Tory Party. Instead of confronting the ultras with the realities of the situation he pretended to be undecided between remain and leave before obtaining his "deal" and hobbled his own referendum campaign by refusing to allow direct criticism of leading leavers in the interest of (don't laugh) party unity. He more than anyone else is responsible for the disastrous mess in which his country and his party now find themselves.
At what point was he going to turn around and face these forces down? He was up against not only the sceptics in his own party, but most of the then powerful print media. He ultimately took the stance he did because he realised that he had no choice.
No one was enthusiastic about the EU, not even him, which culimanated in the crap remain campaign which couldn't come up with a single positive reason to vote to stay in the EU that wasn't patronising or trivial.
Brexit feels like the democratic expression of something that was boiling below the surface for years.
Unlike many Remainers, I think a referendum was necessary and right. Indeed, we ought to have had one after Maastricht and Lisbon.
What I fault Cameron on is complacency about the vote itself: allowing a simple majority on an unknowable proposition (“Brexit”) was constitutional vandalism.
Hang on. The last referendum has been THE defining corrosive political event of my lifetime. A second is dealing with the nightmare that already exists.
You mean people having their say for the first time in decades has been corrosive to the liberal elites because they don't want to implement the result they were given by the people.
Telling 17m people that their vote doesn't matter would be the end of democracy. Westminster must find a way to implement the result or it will die.
First post but had to give my two cents.
This is totally correct. But the argument that Chequers is not brexit is a powerful one which means a hard brexit with no deal is far more likely than anybody expects.** This brexit WILL cause economic (and possibly social) turmoil for at least 1-2 years. This will result in the disintegration of the ‘Conservative’ party as a force for a generation and labour will come to power for the foreseeable future. Now with Corbyn as leader (and impossible to replace) and a left wing manifesto, it’s likely that MPs would break away in huge numbers to form a centrist alternative. This would herald the beginning of continental coalition politics, and frankly we should have caught up to our European friends with this years ago. The conservatives will likely do the same, but the hard brexit faction would merge with UKIP and become a far right footnote in the history books.
This route is probably the only way the country becomes governable again. The two party system is clearly on death row.
** whatever you hear in the headlines, business is not prepared for this. I work in finance and apart from the odd water cooler joke about moving to Geneva (either hard brexit or Corbyn), nobody is contingency planning in a serious capacity.
Ironically, the Europeans are moving away from Centrism.
My assumption (ie guess) is that Europeans will witness and in many cases feel a Brexit which will turn them away from euroscepticism.
Hang on. The last referendum has been THE defining corrosive political event of my lifetime. A second is dealing with the nightmare that already exists.
You mean people having their say for the first time in decades has been corrosive to the liberal elites because they don't want to implement the result they were given by the people.
Telling 17m people that their vote doesn't matter would be the end of democracy. Westminster must find a way to implement the result or it will die.
First post but had to give my two cents.
This is totally correct. But the argument that Chequers is not brexit is a powerful one which means a hard brexit with no deal is far more likely than anybody expects.** This brexit WILL cause economic (and possibly social) turmoil for at least 1-2 years. This will result in the disintegration of the ‘Conservative’ party as a force for a generation and labour will come to power for the foreseeable future. Now with Corbyn as leader (and impossible to replace) and a left wing manifesto, it’s likely that MPs would break away in huge numbers to form a centrist alternative. This would herald the beginning of continental coalition politics, and frankly we should have caught up to our European friends with this years ago. The conservatives will likely do the same, but the hard brexit faction would merge with UKIP and become a far right footnote in the history books.
This route is probably the only way the country becomes governable again. The two party system is clearly on death row.
** whatever you hear in the headlines, business is not prepared for this. I work in finance and apart from the odd water cooler joke about moving to Geneva (either hard brexit or Corbyn), nobody is contingency planning in a serious capacity.
It's very hard to have more than two parties under FPTP unless they have strong regional bases of support.
As the two-party system exerts an ever weaker ideological grip so the cynical attachment to FPTP by the main party leaderships will grow all the stronger. Vote for us to stop the other lot is the strongest argument both sides have and with FPTP it will keep the two-party system alive.
I am going to the north of Scotland tomorrow to family for ten days and I could come home to a Country without a government
My party should hang its head in shame as it destructs with ideologs at each end
But labour are no better, no idea on Brexit, a leader who would be a disaster for NATO and our defences, before I start on his economics, and shameful anti - semitic behaviour.
What have we done to deserve this disaster and loss of respect abroad.
I absolutely have no time for ERG extreme Brexit, indeed I am coming round to a second referendum where we vote conclusively to stay in and preserve the Union
And before HYUFD tells me I am not a proper conservative I have values that my party always stood for, not only low taxes but avid pro business and influence in the World. Look at the pound collapse over the last few days just as voters are going abroad on holiday. They are going to be very angry at how much more their holidays are costing
He will tell me to clear off to the Lib Dems but I will not be threatened by the right who have got us into this mess and will stay and fight against their dangerous course for our Country.
He will tell me Corbyn will get in as UKIP leave us. Well my answer to that is good riddance and I also reject his constant mantra that the conservatives can only win with UKIP
We have done so before and will again
Great post Big_G, actually quite moving.
This is an existential crisis for the UK with no easy way out.
If we adopt hard Brexit there will be a period of economic pain and hardship that will imo very likely lead to the break-up of the Union.
If we revert to Remain without a decisive 2nd vote in favour 17m people will feel disenfranchised and disenchantment with the EU and Westminster will only grow.
A Chequers style soft-Brexit has a fair chance of pleasing no one.
The problem has pretty consistently become that there isn't the space for both Remain/Leave politics and party politics, given the 2-main-party-FPTP system we have (and particularly the parliamentary arithmetic we have now). We really needed to find a way to suspend party politics long enough to focus on Brexit alone.
I know it was neeeever going to happen (precisely because of party politics) but given the GE2017 result there should have been a government of national unity after that as a sort of placeholder, long enough for the legislation to be decided purely on the strength of MP's views on Brexit without competing positions from the parties to muddy the waters. Once the final Brexit position was decided and delivered then party politics could have kicked back into gearand a new GEheld.
Yep, no idea how it would have worked in reality and absolutely a complete fantasy but in the real world, hard to look at what's actually happening and go "no no, this has definitely worked out much better".
Apartheid in Israel. Who would have guessed? You can understand why Jeremy might find it easier to walk through the eye of a needle than comment on Netanyahu's Likud government and stay on the right side of the IRHA's definition of antisemitism
Well I will risk it. This new law is an utter disgrace. I am all for Israel being a homeland for Jews but to downgrade the 20% of the population who are not Jews, to treat them as less worthy of being citizens in their home, to downgrade Arabic is utterly wrong. Both wrong and stupid. What an utterly foolish and immoral thing for Israel to do.
And no I am not being anti-semitic in saying this and, yes, the IRHA’s definition does not prohibit this criticism.
I am going to the north of Scotland tomorrow to family for ten days and I could come home to a Country without a government
My party should hang its head in shame as it destructs with ideologs at each end
But labour are no better, no idea on Brexit, a leader who would be a disaster for NATO and our defences, before I start on his economics, and shameful anti - semitic behaviour.
What have we done to deserve this disaster and loss of respect abroad.
I absolutely have no time for ERG extreme Brexit, indeed I am coming round to a second referendum where we vote conclusively to stay in and preserve the Union
And before HYUFD tells me I am not a proper conservative I have values that my party always stood for, not only low taxes but avid pro business and influence in the World. Look at the pound collapse over the last few days just as voters are going abroad on holiday. They are going to be very angry at how much more their holidays are costing
He will tell me to clear off to the Lib Dems but I will not be threatened by the right who have got us into this mess and will stay and fight against their dangerous course for our Country.
He will tell me Corbyn will get in as UKIP leave us. Well my answer to that is good riddance and I also reject his constant mantra that the conservatives can only win with UKIP
We have done so before and will again
Great post Big_G, actually quite moving.
This is an existential crisis for the UK with no easy way out.
If we adopt hard Brexit there will be a period of economic pain and hardship that will imo very likely lead to the break-up of the Union.
If we revert to Remain without a decisive 2nd vote in favour 17m people will feel disenfranchised and disenchantment with the EU and Westminster will only grow.
A Chequers style soft-Brexit has a fair chance of pleasing no one.
It's a fine mess all round.
YouGov last week had immigration control the top concern of Scots over Brexit and 31% thinking May's Chequers Deal too soft and only 20% too hard
Apartheid in Israel. Who would have guessed? You can understand why Jeremy might find it easier to walk through the eye of a needle than comment on Netanyahu's Likud government and stay on the right side of the IRHA's definition of antisemitism
Well I will risk it. This new law is an utter disgrace. I am all for Israel being a homeland for Jews but to downgrade the 20% of the population who are not Jews, to treat them as less worthy of being citizens in their home, to downgrade Arabic is utterly wrong. Both wrong and stupid. What an utterly foolish and immoral thing for Israel to do.
And no I am not being anti-semitic in saying this and, yes, the IRHA’s definition does not prohibit this criticism.
I don't think you needed the final paragraph. The Israeli government has made a terrible mistake.
Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.
The rest of the quote is even better:
Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”
Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”
Comments
The same applies to Brexit - certainly it was popular but as we appproach the cliff edge people will realise they have been conned and talk of a brave new global Britain was just as cruel a deception as appeasement. And then there will be a search for scapegoats, and leading Brexiteers will be at the top of the list.
Must be down to that Amber Rudd. Cuh....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44884113
Just imagine the latter, a General Election. How on Earth could that work today? The parties couldn't put together a manifesto supported by their own MPs. And if they did it would be a fudge and with no distance between the parties. A General Election would not be a meaningful vote.
So we need to face up to the fact that the familiar party system is dead. The big questions are whether that is temporary or a permanent change and what individual MPs will do.
This is an existential crisis for the UK with no easy way out.
If we adopt hard Brexit there will be a period of economic pain and hardship that will imo very likely lead to the break-up of the Union.
If we revert to Remain without a decisive 2nd vote in favour 17m people will feel disenfranchised and disenchantment with the EU and Westminster will only grow.
A Chequers style soft-Brexit has a fair chance of pleasing no one.
It's a fine mess all round.
And before all that process starts someone would need to decide what the question or options would be. While Greening's idea of a three option AV style vote is a nice idea it would involve using a voting system we rejected in the second most recent UK wide referendum to potentially overturn a position we agreed on in the most recent UK wide referendum. How very democratic! So why after ignoring two referendums should we respect the third?
The decision on leaving has been made - as Noel Edmonds used to say it's deal or no deal. And if there is another vote I cannot see the Tories agreeing to a remain option.
It's all theoretical anyway as I doubt May or Corbyn will agree to one - the last one almost resulted in Corbyn being ousted as most of his shadow cabinet quit and as we know May hates campaigning.
So I expect we will agree a last minute deal and go into transition. And May can then retire to Sonning.
No one was enthusiastic about the EU, not even him, which culimanated in the crap remain campaign which couldn't come up with a single positive reason to vote to stay in the EU that wasn't patronising or trivial.
Brexit feels like the democratic expression of something that was boiling below the surface for years.
What I fault Cameron on is complacency about the vote itself: allowing a simple majority on an unknowable proposition (“Brexit”) was constitutional vandalism.
My assumption (ie guess) is that Europeans will witness and in many cases feel a Brexit which will turn them away from euroscepticism.
As the two-party system exerts an ever weaker ideological grip so the cynical attachment to FPTP by the main party leaderships will grow all the stronger. Vote for us to stop the other lot is the strongest argument both sides have and with FPTP it will keep the two-party system alive.
I know it was neeeever going to happen (precisely because of party politics) but given the GE2017 result there should have been a government of national unity after that as a sort of placeholder, long enough for the legislation to be decided purely on the strength of MP's views on Brexit without competing positions from the parties to muddy the waters. Once the final Brexit position was decided and delivered then party politics could have kicked back into gearand a new GEheld.
Yep, no idea how it would have worked in reality and absolutely a complete fantasy but in the real world, hard to look at what's actually happening and go "no no, this has definitely worked out much better".
And no I am not being anti-semitic in saying this and, yes, the IRHA’s definition does not prohibit this criticism.
Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”
Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”