politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction
Boris Johnson says "the pound soared" after May's Lancaster House speech. Value of pound on day of speech (Jan 17 2017): $1.24. Value of pound on day after: $1.23.
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Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
Boulton appears to have forgotten the EU came into being in the 1990s.
Suspect most takes on the speech will reflect the position of the respondent rather than the speech itself. Could be wrong, of course.0 -
His aim is true.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
Off-topic and fpt:
For anyone who wants rocket fun, Blue Origin might be doing a suborbital hop of their rocket at 16.00. It's an in-flight abort test, which might mean it ends up being rather spectacular.
You can watch it here:
https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtube
On the last such test, they expected the rocket to blow up. It didn't, and landed for reuse. It'll be interesting to see if the same happens again.0 -
What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.0
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I don't really get that?TheScreamingEagles said:I said it best.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/10195856758495354880 -
Didn’t see it. I doubt many are interested in the maunderings of yesterday’s man.0
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True, but doesn't really matter. I don't see any good reason why the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s couldn't be implemented now, if the situation permitted it. Indeed, I think some member states have made those kind of reforms, haven't they?Morris_Dancer said:Boulton appears to have forgotten the EU came into being in the 1990s.
...0 -
It is Freudian slip that you see many in the media make. They talk about Europe interchangeably with EU, and EU equals EEC....Philip_Thompson said:What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
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The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is the amended Treaty of Rome so there's continuity going back to the formation of the EEC. Boulton's point stands.Philip_Thompson said:What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
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@david_herdson - see my reply on the previous thread.0
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Liverpool bid £67m plus Karius for Alisson, Roma forced them to raise their bid to £67m without Karius.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
Well a 33 year old also recently sold for 100 million euro....when 20 years ago, a player of such age would be luckily to demand any transfer fee.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
Today it was an actual* dead sheep. The performance by Boris today was nothing like Howe in November 1990.david_herdson said:
I don't really get that?TheScreamingEagles said:I said it best.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1019585675849535488
*Not literally.0 -
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Howe's speech still has relevance today:TheScreamingEagles said:The performance by Boris today was nothing like Howe in November 1990.
It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.
The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.0 -
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
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He has gone quite barking. Brexit does that to people.Scott_P said:0 -
Right. I read it first as implying that Howe's was also a dead sheep, which I assumed you meant ironically but then such a statement would apply to all resignation speeches, hence my confusion.TheScreamingEagles said:
Today it was an actual* dead sheep. The performance by Boris today was nothing like Howe in November 1990.david_herdson said:
I don't really get that?TheScreamingEagles said:I said it best.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1019585675849535488
*Not literally.-1 -
How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"0
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Even by the media's standards Adam Boulton really is a prize tit.
Boris's comment on supply side reforms in the 1980s came directly after reference to EU laws "on the environment and social affairs and much else besides". Whether we were in the EU in the 1980s is not the point - the point is that its environmental legislation has advanced much since and we were not in the social chapter until late 90s.
Astonishing that someone could have spent their career covering politics and not get this basic nuance.0 -
Beginning of a purge?
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/10195654080456294400 -
May confident performance in front of the Liason Ctte - possibly cheered up by a very damp squib of a speech from Boris.0
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Shilton was probably the single reason Forest won the League and two European Cups......Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
Mr. Foremain, can't recall who said it, but I'd be somewhat surprised if it were Prometheus.
Sounds like something that could've related to Heracles after he was driven insane and ended up killing his wife and children.0 -
Keepers should cost more because they can have a longer career.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
They will sell far fewer shirts though I suppose...0 -
Boris Johnson IS a damp squib. He is a lazy failure, an opportunist egotist and an embarrassment to his country. And no, he doesn't speak highly of me!CarlottaVance said:May confident performance in front of the Liason Ctte - possibly cheered up by a very damp squib of a speech from Boris.
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Are you sure....The academic studies I have seen don't say that at all..e.g.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf0 -
I think his point limps, and that's being generous.williamglenn said:
The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is the amended Treaty of Rome so there's continuity going back to the formation of the EEC. Boulton's point stands.Philip_Thompson said:What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
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@JamesCrisp6 - EU diplomat pulls no punches after Boris speech:
"George Orwell, a far superior journalist to Boris, once wrote it was the same in all wars. The soldiers do the fighting, the journalists do the shouting and no true patriot gets near a front line trench.
"Boris plays the patriot but he won't have to be in trenches or face the consequences of his flippant dismissal of the very real concerns over the Irish border."0 -
He might have a high IQ, but he has proven time and time again that his Emotional Intelligence is really lacking. His Ego doesn't help him in that regard, he genuinely believes he could be one of histories 'Great Men' that could achieve great things.Nigel_Foremain said:How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
He shafted the last Great leader his party had because of his Ego.0 -
You can almost read the thoughts of those on the benches behind Boris. Left to right "when is this going to end", "I think that might be another factual error", "this is so embarrassing", "That tw*t almost became PM"0
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Team Sky had their shredded wheat this morning.0
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The point Johnson is making is so convoluted and of doubtful merit that it's hard to follow. But it is a different point. He thinks that the EU's environmental and social standards make impossible reforms of the sort that Thatcher implemented in the eighties. It doesn't necessarily mean that Thatcher was able to carry out reforms thanks to lower standards, and in any case Johnson is in favour of high standards. Follow me so far? The Thatcher reforms are a reference for hypothetical Johnsonian Brexit buccaneering reforms that he doesn't explain even in the broadest terms..Philip_Thompson said:What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
Johnson's speech is on his Facebook page.0 -
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure....The academic studies I have seen don't say that at all..e.g.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.0 -
He said should be not is. With Alisson Liverpool might be Champions League Winners right now.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure....The academic studies I have seen don't say that at all..e.g.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf0 -
I'm not sure even Boris would do that to advance his career, but he might just put Granny in the small ads if he thought it would helpMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Foremain, can't recall who said it, but I'd be somewhat surprised if it were Prometheus.
Sounds like something that could've related to Heracles after he was driven insane and ended up killing his wife and children.0 -
It isn't true. Goalkeepers have been traditionally undervalued, but the data driven analysis shows that they aren't as important as creative midfielders and strikers.Foxy said:
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure....The academic studies I have seen don't say that at all..e.g.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
That paper I linked also shows that the big 5 significantly (comparable to their worth) have been overpaying for their goalkeepers compared to the rest of the league.0 -
Didn't watch it and sounds like this was another bullet dodged - no doubt HYUFD will be back soon to tell us what a great PM he would make.0
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Me? Are you kidding? Hey, I was with you all the time! That was beautiful! Did you see the way the Leavers fell into our trap? Ha ha!TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll destroy the reputations of so many leavers permanently, like the appeasers of the 1930s.0 -
TSE = Goebbels!TheScreamingEagles said:
Make the plebs suffer for voting for economic ruin. That's democracy folk.
"I feel no sympathy. I repeat, I feel no sympathy! The German people chose their fate. That may surprise some people. Don't fool yourself. We didn't force the German people. They gave us the mandate. And now their little throats are being cut."
- Joseph Goebbels, 1945.0 -
Cool, but no explosion.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic and fpt:
For anyone who wants rocket fun, Blue Origin might be doing a suborbital hop of their rocket at 16.00. It's an in-flight abort test, which might mean it ends up being rather spectacular.
You can watch it here:
https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtube
On the last such test, they expected the rocket to blow up. It didn't, and landed for reuse. It'll be interesting to see if the same happens again.0 -
Yep and the battle between Froome and Thomas is still to come.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky had their shredded wheat this morning.
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Froome will be needing as many puffs as possible on that inhaler!!!! So far he hasn't looked as strong as previous tours, where as Thomas is always there.ralphmalph said:
Yep and the battle between Froome and Thomas is still to come.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky had their shredded wheat this morning.
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Longfellow.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foremain, can't recall who said it, but I'd be somewhat surprised if it were Prometheus.
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williamglenn said:
Only deductive reasoning, which is not the same as wishful thinking:david_herdson said:And do you have any evidence for your assertion, because it looks to me like wishful thinking?
- Are the effects of No Deal fully understood by the public at this point?
DH - No.
- Will the effects of No Deal become better understood as we get closer to the time?
DH - No. There'll be contradictory claims and assertions and people will go on believing what they want to believe.
- Will this have a positive or negative effect on people's willingness to countenance No Deal?
DH - No.
- Will people who give up on No Deal all swing behind Chequers or will a meaningful number of them (as Boris has said privately) decide that remaining would be better than leaving with that kind of deal?
DH - The effect will be minor.
Also, on the YouGov poll, bear in mind that it is GB only and NI has swung even more against Brexit so you need to make a polling adjustment to project what these figures mean for a second referendum.
DH - That's a fair point, though the overall effect will be small (though on the YouGov figures, potentially enough to tip the knife-edge Leave to being a knife-edge Remain)0 -
Thomas goes....0
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and it is off.FrancisUrquhart said:
Froome will be needing as many puffs as possible on that inhaler!!!! So far he hasn't looked as strong as previous tours, where as Thomas is always there.ralphmalph said:
Yep and the battle between Froome and Thomas is still to come.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky had their shredded wheat this morning.
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Mr. B, well, at least Mrs Prometheus was happily married.0
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Confident??????????????CarlottaVance said:May confident performance in front of the Liason Ctte - possibly cheered up by a very damp squib of a speech from Boris.
Were you hiding behind the sofa when she was being questioned by Yvette Cooper on mutual (or not) tariff collection?0 -
After a week of crap tour de france stages, this is proper cycling!0
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Would be genius were he a striker.AlastairMeeks said:
His aim is true.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.0 -
I have to disagree with you on those. If we get to the end of the year with the prospect of No Deal still on the table, it will cease to be an abstract debate of claim and counter-claim.david_herdson said:DH - No. There'll be contradictory claims and assertions and people will go on believing what they want to believe.
DH - No.
DH - The effect will be minor.0 -
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Why is Boris moaning about the Chequers agreement? It doesn't exist any more after his master Rees-Mogg destroyed it yesterday. Boris, do keep up!0
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yes, it is Londfellow's poem "The Masque of Pandora" where Prometheus is said to have said it.Nigelb said:
Longfellow.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foremain, can't recall who said it, but I'd be somewhat surprised if it were Prometheus.
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Think whatever happens re leadership ERG etc Boris has morphed into yesterdays man0
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It is an interesting paper, but it is about price. Scoring a goal does cost 15 times that of saving one, but they are equivalent in determining the outcome. I note these are 2012 season figures.FrancisUrquhart said:
It isn't true. Goalkeepers have been traditionally undervalued, but the data driven analysis shows that they aren't as important as creative midfielders and strikers.Foxy said:
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure....The academic studies I have seen don't say that at all..e.g.Foxy said:
Good signing. Goalkeepers are as important to a team as a 20+ goal striker, so they should be the same price.TheScreamingEagles said:Alisson for £67 million.
World's gone mad.
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
That paper I linked also shows that the big 5 significantly (comparable to their worth) have been overpaying for their goalkeepers compared to the rest of the league.
Big 5 teams generally have more expensive defenders too, so their goalies get fewer opportinities for heroic saves. Bottom end teams often have very busy goalkeepers for similar reasons.
Price also doesnt nessecarily reflect current value, so for example Leicester ppaid £1.2 million for Kasper Schmeichel and Pope was also a bargain at current value.
Football economics is a route to madness, but in that crazy context Allisson is a decent buy. May not sell so many shirts to the boys though!0 -
On Boulton's tweet - didn't the EU have far fewer competences back then?0
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Incredible from Thomas.FrancisUrquhart said:After a week of crap tour de france stages, this is proper cycling!
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Thomas must have had a massive bowl of shredded wheat !!!!!0
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If you removed Boris's mop of hair at the back do you think you would see Jacob Rees-Mogg's face grinning like Lord Voldemort?0
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Massively pleased for Thomas after having to play second fiddle for so long to support Froome victories.0
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What a ride!0
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I don`t think much of Boris Johnson, Mr Dancer, but I think that is going a bit far.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foremain, can't recall who said it, but I'd be somewhat surprised if it were Prometheus.
Sounds like something that could've related to Heracles after he was driven insane and ended up killing his wife and children.
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It did, but you really would be dancing on pin-heads to use that as a justification for what Boris said. As ever he was talking complete crap.RobD said:On Boulton's tweet - didn't the EU have far fewer competences back then?
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Fantastic race.0
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Not for John McDonnell voting with the Tories to leave the single market though.Morris_Dancer said:Beginning of a purge?
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/10195654080456294400 -
Ah, but...'Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain'. Go Boris.Nigel_Foremain said:How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
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Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.0
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Absolutely not it is an excellent point.Nigel_Foremain said:
It did, but you really would be dancing on pin-heads to use that as a justification for what Boris said. As ever he was talking complete crap.RobD said:On Boulton's tweet - didn't the EU have far fewer competences back then?
Thatcher in the 80s overturned a lot of what was then established laws and policies in order to transform the economy. A lot of shibboleths were tackled. The EEC lacked competencies on those areas and Parliament was sovereign so Parliament could make the reforms.
A future Thatcher wanting to tackle current shibboleths in the same way won't be able to within Parliament if the EU has those competences.0 -
Boris has:Nigel_Foremain said:Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/16/overwhelmingly-likely-putin-ordered-spy-attack-says-boris-johnson0 -
You missed a comma.John_M said:
Ah, but...'Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain'. Go Boris.Nigel_Foremain said:How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
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deleted. Foxy has made the same point better.0
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Well chosen words.ralphmalph said:
Incredible from Thomas.FrancisUrquhart said:After a week of crap tour de france stages, this is proper cycling!
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I am not sure whether Boris would be much of an asset to the Kremlin, unwitting or otherwise. More of the idiot and less of the usefulMarqueeMark said:
Boris has:Nigel_Foremain said:Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/16/overwhelmingly-likely-putin-ordered-spy-attack-says-boris-johnson0 -
What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..0
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Will they be like the public information films which told us to hide under the table in the event of a nuclear attack?williamglenn said:0 -
Boris? *puffs cigarette* I haven't heard that name in a long while...0
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To be fair to Boris much of his statement and talk of 'permanent limbo' would have resonated with Tory members and voters and Leavers. However I still think May stays for now to hopefully get at least a transition deal from the EU but if that has not produced a FTA by December 2020 and the date the transition period is due to end then there will be problems0
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What To Put In Your Fall-out Room, and that sort of thing.williamglenn said:0 -
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?Penddu said:What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
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Boris is now May's most likely successor, certainly if they want a leader with even a modicum of charisma and who can stop the mass defections of Tory Leavers to UKIP post Chequers Deal.felix said:Didn't watch it and sounds like this was another bullet dodged - no doubt HYUFD will be back soon to tell us what a great PM he would make.
Otherwise it may well be PM Corbyn0 -
The Tories have been in a state of permanent euro-limbo since 1990.
At some point the UK body politic will have to deal with a couple of key observations:
1) The EU will evolve into a full federal European state
2) The UK is now even more powerless to stop it than it was before
UK foreign policy has been in total denial about this geopolitical fact since the 1950s.0 -
The US is not "far bigger" than the EU. The EU and US GDPs are roughly the same size.Philip_Thompson said:
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?Penddu said:What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
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Let it. We have no reason to be a part of it or stop it though.grabcocque said:The Tories have been in a state of permanent euro-limbo since 1990.
At some point the UK body politic will have to deal with a couple of key observations:
1) The EU will evolve into a full federal European state
2) The UK is now even more powerless to stop it than it was before
UK foreign policy has been in total denial about this geopolitical fact since the 1950s.
We can be Canada to their USA.0 -
PM has now devoted the first 22 minutes of the show to Cliff Richard and itself. I know it is important, but is this REALLY the most important story of the day?
The public are simply not being served by these news priorities.0 -
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The US is roughly 10% bigger than the EU including us and roughly 33% bigger than the EU27.grabcocque said:
The US is not "far bigger" than the EU. The EU and US GDPs are roughly the same size.Philip_Thompson said:
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?Penddu said:What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
If the figures were the other way around we would have Eurofanatics boasting that the EU is the world's largest economy. Oh wait that lie is already widespread.0 -
We are part of it. That's part of the denial.Philip_Thompson said:
Let it. We have no reason to be a part of it or stop it though.grabcocque said:The Tories have been in a state of permanent euro-limbo since 1990.
At some point the UK body politic will have to deal with a couple of key observations:
1) The EU will evolve into a full federal European state
2) The UK is now even more powerless to stop it than it was before
UK foreign policy has been in total denial about this geopolitical fact since the 1950s.
We can be Canada to their USA.0 -
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We won't be once we have left.williamglenn said:
We are part of it. That's part of the denial.Philip_Thompson said:
Let it. We have no reason to be a part of it or stop it though.grabcocque said:The Tories have been in a state of permanent euro-limbo since 1990.
At some point the UK body politic will have to deal with a couple of key observations:
1) The EU will evolve into a full federal European state
2) The UK is now even more powerless to stop it than it was before
UK foreign policy has been in total denial about this geopolitical fact since the 1950s.
We can be Canada to their USA.0
