politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction
Boris Johnson says "the pound soared" after May's Lancaster House speech. Value of pound on day of speech (Jan 17 2017): $1.24. Value of pound on day after: $1.23.
For anyone who wants rocket fun, Blue Origin might be doing a suborbital hop of their rocket at 16.00. It's an in-flight abort test, which might mean it ends up being rather spectacular.
Boulton appears to have forgotten the EU came into being in the 1990s.
...
True, but doesn't really matter. I don't see any good reason why the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s couldn't be implemented now, if the situation permitted it. Indeed, I think some member states have made those kind of reforms, haven't they?
What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is the amended Treaty of Rome so there's continuity going back to the formation of the EEC. Boulton's point stands.
The performance by Boris today was nothing like Howe in November 1990.
Howe's speech still has relevance today:
It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.
The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.
Today it was an actual* dead sheep. The performance by Boris today was nothing like Howe in November 1990.
*Not literally.
Right. I read it first as implying that Howe's was also a dead sheep, which I assumed you meant ironically but then such a statement would apply to all resignation speeches, hence my confusion.
How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
Even by the media's standards Adam Boulton really is a prize tit.
Boris's comment on supply side reforms in the 1980s came directly after reference to EU laws "on the environment and social affairs and much else besides". Whether we were in the EU in the 1980s is not the point - the point is that its environmental legislation has advanced much since and we were not in the social chapter until late 90s.
Astonishing that someone could have spent their career covering politics and not get this basic nuance.
May confident performance in front of the Liason Ctte - possibly cheered up by a very damp squib of a speech from Boris.
Boris Johnson IS a damp squib. He is a lazy failure, an opportunist egotist and an embarrassment to his country. And no, he doesn't speak highly of me!
What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is the amended Treaty of Rome so there's continuity going back to the formation of the EEC. Boulton's point stands.
I think his point limps, and that's being generous.
@JamesCrisp6 - EU diplomat pulls no punches after Boris speech:
"George Orwell, a far superior journalist to Boris, once wrote it was the same in all wars. The soldiers do the fighting, the journalists do the shouting and no true patriot gets near a front line trench.
"Boris plays the patriot but he won't have to be in trenches or face the consequences of his flippant dismissal of the very real concerns over the Irish border."
How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
He might have a high IQ, but he has proven time and time again that his Emotional Intelligence is really lacking. His Ego doesn't help him in that regard, he genuinely believes he could be one of histories 'Great Men' that could achieve great things.
He shafted the last Great leader his party had because of his Ego.
You can almost read the thoughts of those on the benches behind Boris. Left to right "when is this going to end", "I think that might be another factual error", "this is so embarrassing", "That tw*t almost became PM"
What's Boulton smoking? The UK was not in the EU in the 80s as the EU did not exist then.
The point Johnson is making is so convoluted and of doubtful merit that it's hard to follow. But it is a different point. He thinks that the EU's environmental and social standards make impossible reforms of the sort that Thatcher implemented in the eighties. It doesn't necessarily mean that Thatcher was able to carry out reforms thanks to lower standards, and in any case Johnson is in favour of high standards. Follow me so far? The Thatcher reforms are a reference for hypothetical Johnsonian Brexit buccaneering reforms that he doesn't explain even in the broadest terms..
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
It isn't true. Goalkeepers have been traditionally undervalued, but the data driven analysis shows that they aren't as important as creative midfielders and strikers.
That paper I linked also shows that the big 5 significantly (comparable to their worth) have been overpaying for their goalkeepers compared to the rest of the league.
Make the plebs suffer for voting for economic ruin. That's democracy folk.
TSE = Goebbels!
"I feel no sympathy. I repeat, I feel no sympathy! The German people chose their fate. That may surprise some people. Don't fool yourself. We didn't force the German people. They gave us the mandate. And now their little throats are being cut."
For anyone who wants rocket fun, Blue Origin might be doing a suborbital hop of their rocket at 16.00. It's an in-flight abort test, which might mean it ends up being rather spectacular.
Yep and the battle between Froome and Thomas is still to come.
Froome will be needing as many puffs as possible on that inhaler!!!! So far he hasn't looked as strong as previous tours, where as Thomas is always there.
And do you have any evidence for your assertion, because it looks to me like wishful thinking?
Only deductive reasoning, which is not the same as wishful thinking:
- Are the effects of No Deal fully understood by the public at this point?
DH - No.
- Will the effects of No Deal become better understood as we get closer to the time?
DH - No. There'll be contradictory claims and assertions and people will go on believing what they want to believe.
- Will this have a positive or negative effect on people's willingness to countenance No Deal?
DH - No.
- Will people who give up on No Deal all swing behind Chequers or will a meaningful number of them (as Boris has said privately) decide that remaining would be better than leaving with that kind of deal?
DH - The effect will be minor.
Also, on the YouGov poll, bear in mind that it is GB only and NI has swung even more against Brexit so you need to make a polling adjustment to project what these figures mean for a second referendum.
DH - That's a fair point, though the overall effect will be small (though on the YouGov figures, potentially enough to tip the knife-edge Leave to being a knife-edge Remain)
Yep and the battle between Froome and Thomas is still to come.
Froome will be needing as many puffs as possible on that inhaler!!!! So far he hasn't looked as strong as previous tours, where as Thomas is always there.
DH - No. There'll be contradictory claims and assertions and people will go on believing what they want to believe.
DH - No.
DH - The effect will be minor.
I have to disagree with you on those. If we get to the end of the year with the prospect of No Deal still on the table, it will cease to be an abstract debate of claim and counter-claim.
Though with 10 outfield players, and only one goalie, that needs to be adjusted for opportunity. Most goalies make several saves per match, few strikers average several goals per match.
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
It isn't true. Goalkeepers have been traditionally undervalued, but the data driven analysis shows that they aren't as important as creative midfielders and strikers.
That paper I linked also shows that the big 5 significantly (comparable to their worth) have been overpaying for their goalkeepers compared to the rest of the league.
It is an interesting paper, but it is about price. Scoring a goal does cost 15 times that of saving one, but they are equivalent in determining the outcome. I note these are 2012 season figures.
Big 5 teams generally have more expensive defenders too, so their goalies get fewer opportinities for heroic saves. Bottom end teams often have very busy goalkeepers for similar reasons.
Price also doesnt nessecarily reflect current value, so for example Leicester ppaid £1.2 million for Kasper Schmeichel and Pope was also a bargain at current value.
Football economics is a route to madness, but in that crazy context Allisson is a decent buy. May not sell so many shirts to the boys though!
How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
Ah, but...'Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain'. Go Boris.
Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.
On Boulton's tweet - didn't the EU have far fewer competences back then?
It did, but you really would be dancing on pin-heads to use that as a justification for what Boris said. As ever he was talking complete crap.
Absolutely not it is an excellent point.
Thatcher in the 80s overturned a lot of what was then established laws and policies in order to transform the economy. A lot of shibboleths were tackled. The EEC lacked competencies on those areas and Parliament was sovereign so Parliament could make the reforms.
A future Thatcher wanting to tackle current shibboleths in the same way won't be able to within Parliament if the EU has those competences.
Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.
How can such a well educated intelligent man make such an arse of himself? Prometheus might have said "Those whom the gods would destroy they first give disproportionate egos and stupid haircuts"
Ah, but...'Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain'. Go Boris.
Those in favour of Brexit are strange bedfellows; McDonnell, Corbyn, Farage, Trump. None of these people have been backward in attacking western leaders. The strange thing is, none of them is on the record as saying anything nasty about that other loather of the EU, that nice Mr Putin.
To be fair to Boris much of his statement and talk of 'permanent limbo' would have resonated with Tory members and voters and Leavers. However I still think May stays for now to hopefully get at least a transition deal from the EU but if that has not produced a FTA by December 2020 and the date the transition period is due to end then there will be problems
What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?
Didn't watch it and sounds like this was another bullet dodged - no doubt HYUFD will be back soon to tell us what a great PM he would make.
Boris is now May's most likely successor, certainly if they want a leader with even a modicum of charisma and who can stop the mass defections of Tory Leavers to UKIP post Chequers Deal.
What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?
The US is not "far bigger" than the EU. The EU and US GDPs are roughly the same size.
PM has now devoted the first 22 minutes of the show to Cliff Richard and itself. I know it is important, but is this REALLY the most important story of the day? The public are simply not being served by these news priorities.
What is the fascination with a US trade deal? Crap food and crap cars..? Sounds like going back to Britain in the 60s..
The US is the world's biggest market. Far bigger than the entire EU combined let alone the EU27 alone. Why would you not want a deal with the world's biggest market?
The US is not "far bigger" than the EU. The EU and US GDPs are roughly the same size.
The US is roughly 10% bigger than the EU including us and roughly 33% bigger than the EU27.
If the figures were the other way around we would have Eurofanatics boasting that the EU is the world's largest economy. Oh wait that lie is already widespread.
Comments
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1019585675849535488
World's gone mad.
Suspect most takes on the speech will reflect the position of the respondent rather than the speech itself. Could be wrong, of course.
For anyone who wants rocket fun, Blue Origin might be doing a suborbital hop of their rocket at 16.00. It's an in-flight abort test, which might mean it ends up being rather spectacular.
You can watch it here:
https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtube
On the last such test, they expected the rocket to blow up. It didn't, and landed for reuse. It'll be interesting to see if the same happens again.
*Not literally.
It was the late Lord Stockton, formerly Harold Macmillan, who first put the central point clearly. As long ago as 1962, he argued that we had to place and keep ourselves within the EC. He saw it as essential then, as it is today, not to cut ourselves off from the realities of power; not to retreat into a ghetto of sentimentality about our past and so diminish our own control over our own destiny in the future.
The pity is that the Macmillan view had not been perceived more clearly a decade before in the 1950s. It would have spared us so many of the struggles of the last 20 years had we been in the Community from the outset; had we been ready, in the much too simple phrase, to "surrender some sovereignty" at a much earlier stage. If we had been in from the start, as almost everybody now acknowledges, we should have had more, not less, influence over the Europe in which we live today. We should never forget the lesson of that isolation, of being on the outside looking in, for the conduct of today's affairs.
Boris's comment on supply side reforms in the 1980s came directly after reference to EU laws "on the environment and social affairs and much else besides". Whether we were in the EU in the 1980s is not the point - the point is that its environmental legislation has advanced much since and we were not in the social chapter until late 90s.
Astonishing that someone could have spent their career covering politics and not get this basic nuance.
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1019565408045629440
Sounds like something that could've related to Heracles after he was driven insane and ended up killing his wife and children.
They will sell far fewer shirts though I suppose...
"The estimate makes scoring a goal worth about 15 times saving a goal"
https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/AlsaeedChesnutt-paper.pdf
"George Orwell, a far superior journalist to Boris, once wrote it was the same in all wars. The soldiers do the fighting, the journalists do the shouting and no true patriot gets near a front line trench.
"Boris plays the patriot but he won't have to be in trenches or face the consequences of his flippant dismissal of the very real concerns over the Irish border."
He shafted the last Great leader his party had because of his Ego.
Johnson's speech is on his Facebook page.
I am not suggesting that any football player is worth that much, but I do see an equivalent between such a goalie and a top attacking player.
That paper I linked also shows that the big 5 significantly (comparable to their worth) have been overpaying for their goalkeepers compared to the rest of the league.
"I feel no sympathy. I repeat, I feel no sympathy! The German people chose their fate. That may surprise some people. Don't fool yourself. We didn't force the German people. They gave us the mandate. And now their little throats are being cut."
- Joseph Goebbels, 1945.
Were you hiding behind the sofa when she was being questioned by Yvette Cooper on mutual (or not) tariff collection?
Big 5 teams generally have more expensive defenders too, so their goalies get fewer opportinities for heroic saves. Bottom end teams often have very busy goalkeepers for similar reasons.
Price also doesnt nessecarily reflect current value, so for example Leicester ppaid £1.2 million for Kasper Schmeichel and Pope was also a bargain at current value.
Football economics is a route to madness, but in that crazy context Allisson is a decent buy. May not sell so many shirts to the boys though!
Thatcher in the 80s overturned a lot of what was then established laws and policies in order to transform the economy. A lot of shibboleths were tackled. The EEC lacked competencies on those areas and Parliament was sovereign so Parliament could make the reforms.
A future Thatcher wanting to tackle current shibboleths in the same way won't be able to within Parliament if the EU has those competences.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/16/overwhelmingly-likely-putin-ordered-spy-attack-says-boris-johnson
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019594403525136384
Otherwise it may well be PM Corbyn
At some point the UK body politic will have to deal with a couple of key observations:
1) The EU will evolve into a full federal European state
2) The UK is now even more powerless to stop it than it was before
UK foreign policy has been in total denial about this geopolitical fact since the 1950s.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1019601504481763329?s=20
We can be Canada to their USA.
The public are simply not being served by these news priorities.
If the figures were the other way around we would have Eurofanatics boasting that the EU is the world's largest economy. Oh wait that lie is already widespread.