politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Populus poll of 2014 sees LAB lead up 5 percent
This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error.
Comments
-
Lab/Con are about right. UKIP is overly weighted down...0
-
FPT: Imagine if Labour were actually any GOOD !
What trouble would the Conservatives be in now... Probably as a good reason as any for the rise of UKIP0 -
FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me0 -
FPT antifrank said:
The guilty plea in Plebgate is big news. Whether or not it's correct, it will be interpreted as vindication for Andrew Mitchell.
Agree – And it doesn’t look good for the three police officers accused of deceiving MPs over ‘Plebgate’ who now face a new investigation by the police watchdog.0 -
A firearms officer shoots a man who pulls a gun on him in Tottenham. The only witnesses are some young white men who are sympathetic to the Duggan cause.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me
Put yourself in the position of that officer - would you rather you filmed the incident or not ?!0 -
If I were a police officer, often being spat at, and being accused of being a 'pig', I think I would prefer to have an always on camera. Too often, things are taken out of context - with a camera, the context is always available.0
-
Agree with Mike and Pulpstar - the Populus weightings are likely to be unrealistic for UKIP.
As Mike says, nothing much is happening to voting intention as we roll towards May 2015. I did notice a 5-point jump in today's double-edged rating for the Tories as being a party willing to say unpopular things - presumably this is a response to Osborne. But VI seems quite settled and people interpret this sort of thing in accordance with VI rather than vice versa - Tories think good, our man is brave and honest and he wants to slash someone else's benefits further, Labour voters think ugh, Osborne admits he wants to screw us all some more.
Things that might still shift VI substantially, apart from black swans:
Budget 2014 (budgets don't usually have a lasting effect though)
Labour special conference (might be seen as boring internal matter or have small + or - effect)
Trial verdicts (more likely to be seen in context of individuals IMO)
Autumn statement (meh)
Euro-election (important for narrative about UKIP - arguably the most significant coming event)
Scottish referendum (obviously very important if Yes, perhaps a bit meh if No)
Autumn conferences (don't usually shift much)
Budget 2015 and election campaign (ditto)
And that's about it, isn't it? I'm exaggerating the no-change factors a bit, probably, but we tend to overstate the probability of radical shifts.0 -
Whats that I can smell? Toast burning down at the MET?0
-
This poll is the reversion to mean, as the last poll had a mere 2% Labour lead.0
-
Switch over to BBC Parliament channel, and behind Lord Oakeshott, there's a Lord who is the spitting image of OGH.
Who is this man?
Has Mike been ennobled and no one told us?0 -
I'm backing there to be 4 Cardiff goals or more at 10/1 with William Hill
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/cardiff-city-v-west-ham/total-home-goals0 -
The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).0
-
This argument reminds me of the one over ID cards where "if you've got nothing to hide why would you be against them"Pulpstar said:
A firearms officer shoots a man who pulls a gun on him in Tottenham. The only witnesses are some young white men who are sympathetic to the Duggan cause.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
Put yourself in the position of that officer - would you rather you filmed the incident or not ?!
Basically I think we should be able to trust the police to do their job, and should take their word as the truth...
Obviously that would have led to miscarriages of justices over the years, but I say make the police better not film everything to check they're not bent
@rcs_1000
Really I think the police should be assumed to be upstanding, honest and doing what they think is right
Same as teachers...
Yes, there have been bad examples of both, but the undermining of trust in them is bad for discipline in schools and on the streets0 -
Umunna's nonsense on EU "workers " & "jobseekers" being ripped on the DP0
-
@NickPalmer, the one thing that could be a black swan, could be an actual VI shift, for no reason.
Let's say, we get a few polls showing the Tories ahead, which is possible with say Ipsos-Mori because of their turn out filter, and possibly with ICM.
That could change the debate, and see Labour panicking.
I think the other trigger could be the leader ratings, Nick Clegg is only 4 points behind Ed Miliband in the Gold standard of leader ratings.
Imagine if Ed starts to trail to Nick Clegg.0 -
I think you're forgetting the impact of policy as well. LDs and Cons will want to come up with some eye catching policies to differentiate themselves from the coalition. UKIP will also need to come up with a much more plausible manifesto this time.NickPalmer said:Agree with Mike and Pulpstar - the Populus weightings are likely to be unrealistic for UKIP.
As Mike says, nothing much is happening to voting intention as we roll towards May 2015. I did notice a 5-point jump in today's double-edged rating for the Tories as being a party willing to say unpopular things - presumably this is a response to Osborne. But VI seems quite settled and people interpret this sort of thing in accordance with VI rather than vice versa - Tories think good, our man is brave and honest and he wants to slash someone else's benefits further, Labour voters think ugh, Osborne admits he wants to screw us all some more.
Things that might still shift VI substantially, apart from black swans:
Budget 2014 (budgets don't usually have a lasting effect though)
Labour special conference (might be seen as boring internal matter or have small + or - effect)
Trial verdicts (more likely to be seen in context of individuals IMO)
Autumn statement (meh)
Euro-election (important for narrative about UKIP - arguably the most significant coming event)
Scottish referendum (obviously very important if Yes, perhaps a bit meh if No)
Autumn conferences (don't usually shift much)
Budget 2015 and election campaign (ditto)
And that's about it, isn't it? I'm exaggerating the no-change factors a bit, probably, but we tend to overstate the probability of radical shifts.
Labour will also have a big choice when it comes to economic policy going forward between:
Spend more than the Coalition - popular with the left but gives the coalition a lot of ammunition
Match the Coalition's spending plans - more economic credibility but will upset the left0 -
This is the big news of the day (I suspect there's going to be trouble for Dave from his own side if he doesn't bring back Mitchell)
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Hogan-Howe apologises to Andrew Mitchell for first time, though he's not actually contacted Mitchell yet, just told the press that he will
0 -
I'll keep my mouth shut on this...TheScreamingEagles said:I'm backing there to be 4 Cardiff goals or more at 10/1 with William Hill
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/cardiff-city-v-west-ham/total-home-goals0 -
Awww don't, say it's not going to happen.isam said:
I'll keep my mouth shut on this...TheScreamingEagles said:I'm backing there to be 4 Cardiff goals or more at 10/1 with William Hill
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/cardiff-city-v-west-ham/total-home-goals
(We've all been there)0 -
I too wish this was the case but it simply isn't. If an officer is to go before 12 good men and true their word might not be enough. Better to have some evidence on their side.isam said:
Basically I think we should be able to trust the police to do their job, and should take their word as the truth...
0 -
The Tories are their core vote of about 1/3 of the electorate.
UKIP are at their core vote of about 1/10 - but rising.
The LibDems are at their 'not so lefty' core vote of about 1/10. The lefties aren't coming back.
Labour are at their core vote of about 1/3 PLUS a bunch of borrowed votes from disaffected lefties. The core vote is solid but not so much the rest of their current polling.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the 2015 GE will see the UKIP number gain slightly - my prediction is 12%.
Labour will weaken a bit as the choice looms and Ed N Ed are more in the news - I'm going for 35%
The LibDems will flatline or recover slightly - I'm going for 11%
And The Blues will recover a bit as another 18months of attacks and good news bites - I'm going for 35%. Yes I think it will be neck and neck for the two main parties.
Which will leave us in 2015 with - a mess. But Miliband as a weak PM.0 -
@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority0
-
Match the plans. The left aren't going to be voting Conservative any time soon. Dropping the 'bedroom tax' will probably keep em onside.Garethofthevale said:
I think you're forgetting the impact of policy as well. LDs and Cons will want to come up with some eye catching policies to differentiate themselves from the coalition. UKIP will also need to come up with a much more plausible manifesto this time.NickPalmer said:Agree with Mike and Pulpstar - the Populus weightings are likely to be unrealistic for UKIP.
As Mike says, nothing much is happening to voting intention as we roll towards May 2015. I did notice a 5-point jump in today's double-edged rating for the Tories as being a party willing to say unpopular things - presumably this is a response to Osborne. But VI seems quite settled and people interpret this sort of thing in accordance with VI rather than vice versa - Tories think good, our man is brave and honest and he wants to slash someone else's benefits further, Labour voters think ugh, Osborne admits he wants to screw us all some more.
Things that might still shift VI substantially, apart from black swans:
Budget 2014 (budgets don't usually have a lasting effect though)
Labour special conference (might be seen as boring internal matter or have small + or - effect)
Trial verdicts (more likely to be seen in context of individuals IMO)
Autumn statement (meh)
Euro-election (important for narrative about UKIP - arguably the most significant coming event)
Scottish referendum (obviously very important if Yes, perhaps a bit meh if No)
Autumn conferences (don't usually shift much)
Budget 2015 and election campaign (ditto)
And that's about it, isn't it? I'm exaggerating the no-change factors a bit, probably, but we tend to overstate the probability of radical shifts.
Labour will also have a big choice when it comes to economic policy going forward between:
Spend more than the Coalition - popular with the left but gives the coalition a lot of ammunition
Match the Coalition's spending plans - more economic credibility but will upset the left0 -
I'm not sure Cameron can do anything until the officer's libel case is resolved one way or the other.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the big news of the day (I suspect there's going to be trouble for Dave from his own side if he doesn't bring back Mitchell)
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Hogan-Howe apologises to Andrew Mitchell for first time, though he's not actually contacted Mitchell yet, just told the press that he will
I feel really sorry for Mitchell over this.0 -
Unless Labour piles up huge majorities in seats they already hold, which I think is a possibility. Betting on Labour getting over 35% but less than 326 seats might be worth considering.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
0 -
What proportion of the core Labour vote do you think is WWC?Patrick said:The Tories are their core vote of about 1/3 of the electorate.
UKIP are at their core vote of about 1/10 - but rising.
The LibDems are at their 'not so lefty' core vote of about 1/10. The lefties aren't coming back.
Labour are at their core vote of about 1/3 PLUS a bunch of borrowed votes from disaffected lefties. The core vote is solid but not so much the rest of their current polling.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the 2015 GE will see the UKIP number gain slightly - my prediction is 12%.
Labour will weaken a bit as the choice looms and Ed N Ed are more in the news - I'm going for 35%
The LibDems will flatline or recover slightly - I'm going for 11%
And The Blues will recover a bit as another 18months of attacks and good news bites - I'm going for 35%. Yes I think it will be neck and neck for the two main parties.
Which will leave us in 2015 with - a mess. But Miliband as a weak PM.0 -
I think the polls are currently nonsense but not in an easy way to fix. As the country balkanizes the voting will get very clumpy and national level sampling will get harder.0
-
Put it another way, what would the figures look like if Labour wasn't being bolstered by the left-LD switchers, who've not moved because of anything that Labour's done?Pulpstar said:FPT: Imagine if Labour were actually any GOOD !
What trouble would the Conservatives be in now... Probably as a good reason as any for the rise of UKIP0 -
Probably Willie Goodhart...TheScreamingEagles said:Switch over to BBC Parliament channel, and behind Lord Oakeshott, there's a Lord who is the spitting image of OGH.
Who is this man?
0 -
Those are all events (and by and large, I'd agree with your assesment of them). There are, however, ongoing perception things that could shift VI, of which the economy is surely the most important (and, perhaps, contains most uncertainty too).NickPalmer said:Agree with Mike and Pulpstar - the Populus weightings are likely to be unrealistic for UKIP.
As Mike says, nothing much is happening to voting intention as we roll towards May 2015. I did notice a 5-point jump in today's double-edged rating for the Tories as being a party willing to say unpopular things - presumably this is a response to Osborne. But VI seems quite settled and people interpret this sort of thing in accordance with VI rather than vice versa - Tories think good, our man is brave and honest and he wants to slash someone else's benefits further, Labour voters think ugh, Osborne admits he wants to screw us all some more.
Things that might still shift VI substantially, apart from black swans:
Budget 2014 (budgets don't usually have a lasting effect though)
Labour special conference (might be seen as boring internal matter or have small + or - effect)
Trial verdicts (more likely to be seen in context of individuals IMO)
Autumn statement (meh)
Euro-election (important for narrative about UKIP - arguably the most significant coming event)
Scottish referendum (obviously very important if Yes, perhaps a bit meh if No)
Autumn conferences (don't usually shift much)
Budget 2015 and election campaign (ditto)
And that's about it, isn't it? I'm exaggerating the no-change factors a bit, probably, but we tend to overstate the probability of radical shifts.0 -
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat0 -
I'd have thought that Mitchell is now nailed on as the UK's next EU Commissioner.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the big news of the day (I suspect there's going to be trouble for Dave from his own side if he doesn't bring back Mitchell)
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Hogan-Howe apologises to Andrew Mitchell for first time, though he's not actually contacted Mitchell yet, just told the press that he will0 -
Cheers.RodCrosby said:
Probably Willie Goodhart...TheScreamingEagles said:Switch over to BBC Parliament channel, and behind Lord Oakeshott, there's a Lord who is the spitting image of OGH.
Who is this man?0 -
The people who want it want it for the opposite reasons but personally i think the police would be the main gainers all tolled. Live-streaming it would be even better as people could compare actual reality to the BBC version. That'd be a laugh.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me
0 -
I think Dave is desperate to avoid having a by-election, even in safe seats.david_herdson said:
I'd have thought that Mitchell is now nailed on as the UK's next EU Commissioner.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the big news of the day (I suspect there's going to be trouble for Dave from his own side if he doesn't bring back Mitchell)
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Hogan-Howe apologises to Andrew Mitchell for first time, though he's not actually contacted Mitchell yet, just told the press that he will
UKIP don't have to win in Sutton Coldfield to scare the bejesus out of the Tory party just get a big swing.0 -
This is an interview I want to see
Ian Paisley: Dublin provoked bombs and Bloody Sunday was legal protest
Ex-DUP leader makes startling statements about 1974 loyalist car-bombs, election-rigging and father being on IRA hitlist
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/10/ian-paisley-bloody-sunday-legal-protest-dublin-bombs0 -
I believe almost exactly the opposite. I believe we should never 'trust' the police or any of the authorities for the sake of it. We should always have an eye to the damage that can be done by a few bad apples.isam said:
This argument reminds me of the one over ID cards where "if you've got nothing to hide why would you be against them"Pulpstar said:
A firearms officer shoots a man who pulls a gun on him in Tottenham. The only witnesses are some young white men who are sympathetic to the Duggan cause.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
Put yourself in the position of that officer - would you rather you filmed the incident or not ?!
Basically I think we should be able to trust the police to do their job, and should take their word as the truth...
Obviously that would have led to miscarriages of justices over the years, but I say make the police better not film everything to check they're not bent
@rcs_1000
Really I think the police should be assumed to be upstanding, honest and doing what they think is right
Same as teachers...
Yes, there have been bad examples of both, but the undermining of trust in them is bad for discipline in schools and on the streets
The police have proved themselves time and again to be prone to corruption and willing to lie to protect themselves or improve their clean up rates. This means we should always be looking for ways to tighten our watch over them.
The argument is not the same as that of ID cards. The police are their as our servants (hence the name public servant) and as such they should be answerable to the public.
The government and police are not the masters, we are.0 -
I'd put all the core votes a good deal lower:Patrick said:The Tories are their core vote of about 1/3 of the electorate.
UKIP are at their core vote of about 1/10 - but rising.
The LibDems are at their 'not so lefty' core vote of about 1/10. The lefties aren't coming back.
Labour are at their core vote of about 1/3 PLUS a bunch of borrowed votes from disaffected lefties. The core vote is solid but not so much the rest of their current polling.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the 2015 GE will see the UKIP number gain slightly - my prediction is 12%.
Labour will weaken a bit as the choice looms and Ed N Ed are more in the news - I'm going for 35%
The LibDems will flatline or recover slightly - I'm going for 11%
And The Blues will recover a bit as another 18months of attacks and good news bites - I'm going for 35%. Yes I think it will be neck and neck for the two main parties.
Which will leave us in 2015 with - a mess. But Miliband as a weak PM.
Con: c.20% - see 1994-5 and 1997-9, then add in further potential losses now to UKIP
Lab: c.22% - see 2008/9.
LD: 5% - See 1950s, 1988-9, Scotland now.
It would take a perfect storm of conditions to get the shares down to those sorts of levels but I'd reckon on the rock-solid base being no higher.0 -
Agree. My own seat model (which predicts history excellently) today shows a Labour majority of just under 80. So very similar to Baxter. But based on what I say below re polls moves between now and the day, I think Labour will just fail to get a majority whilst being the largest party.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
0 -
But we have never seen any inclination from Labour voters in safe seats to vote to excess. Taking Bootle as a stereotypical example - Turnout in '97 was 67%, in 2010 58% (in '01 and '05 47% and 49%) - so from 2010 there is maybe another 10% turnout to come, but half of it has already been factored into the 2010 result.AndyJS said:
Unless Labour piles up huge majorities in seats they already hold, which I think is a possibility. Betting on Labour getting over 35% but less than 326 seats might be worth considering.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
0 -
I agree with you on thatMrJones said:
The people who want it want it for the opposite reasons but personally i think the police would be the main gainers all tolled. Live-streaming it would be even better as people could compare actual reality to the BBC version. That'd be a laugh.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me
I reckon if we suggested filming suspected criminals constantly, without any trial or reason other than we think they might be up to no good, the Human Rights lawyers would be tripping over themselves to say it "wasn't fair"0 -
Refreshingly sensible.Patrick said:
Agree. My own seat model (which predicts history excellently) today shows a Labour majority of just under 80. So very similar to Baxter. But based on what I say below re polls moves between now and the day, I think Labour will just fail to get a majority whilst being the largest party.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
0 -
Labour's core is ~ 27%. I reckon they hit the core bottom in England/Wales at GE2010, but the Brown loving Scots meant they were above it in Scotland.0
-
Actually I think Sutton Coldfield would be a good seat in which to have a by-election from the Tories' point of view because UKIP would probably do less well than expected by people who don't know the seat particularly well. It's too wealthy for significant movement from Tory to UKIP.0
-
Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
0 -
I see your point and yes the principle behind it is hypocritical but practically speaking given how big the gap is between the reality and the official version of reality the polis would end up ahead on points i.e. more eye-opening and complaint protection than scandal on balance. Could be wrong.isam said:
I agree with you on thatMrJones said:
The people who want it want it for the opposite reasons but personally i think the police would be the main gainers all tolled. Live-streaming it would be even better as people could compare actual reality to the BBC version. That'd be a laugh.isam said:FPT
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me
I reckon if we suggested filming suspected criminals constantly, without any trial or reason other than we think they might be up to no good, the Human Rights lawyers would be tripping over themselves to say it "wasn't fair"
0 -
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat0 -
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
0 -
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat0 -
Charlie Connelly @charlieconnelly 1m
If West Ham played the England cricket team the entire world of sport would fold up into itself and disappear like the end of Poltergeist.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
0 -
It would be more that the Tories hadn't made much progress in 2014, which would be disturbing, given the expected improvement in the economy in 2014.Tykejohnno said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?0 -
Conservatives won't be 8 pts behind at the end of this year.Tykejohnno said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
Will be closer.0 -
Temper temperMarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
If you'd like to find a recent example of UKIP being over estimated in a poll compared to the physical result I'd be interested to see it-1 -
My back of the envelope for Sutton by-election at the moment (assuming no scandel causing it): Con 45%, Lab 25%, UKIP 20%, Lib 5%, Other 5%.AndyJS said:Actually I think Sutton Coldfield would be a good seat in which to have a by-election from the Tories' point of view because UKIP would probably do less well than expected by people who don't know the seat particularly well. It's too wealthy for significant movement from Tory to UKIP.
Not either Working Class enough for UKIP, or Retired.
0 -
Agree,Mr Eagles,are you worried so far with the early polls of 2014 ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be more that the Tories hadn't made much progress in 2014, which would be disturbing, given the expected improvement in the economy in 2014.Tykejohnno said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
0 -
It happened to some extent in 1987.Lennon said:
But we have never seen any inclination from Labour voters in safe seats to vote to excess. Taking Bootle as a stereotypical example - Turnout in '97 was 67%, in 2010 58% (in '01 and '05 47% and 49%) - so from 2010 there is maybe another 10% turnout to come, but half of it has already been factored into the 2010 result.AndyJS said:
Unless Labour piles up huge majorities in seats they already hold, which I think is a possibility. Betting on Labour getting over 35% but less than 326 seats might be worth considering.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
Labour increased their share from 28% to 32% but only increased their number of seats by 20. The main reason was huge swings in seats they already held in places like Scotland, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, etc.0 -
Election fears to cool interest in London Property
Savills, the estate agents, are predicting a slowdown of interest in London prime residential property in the run up to the 2015 General Election.
Uncertainty over the outcome of the election, with the risk of a Miliband victory lessening the attraction of London as a destination for inbound investment, is likely to cause a fall in the volume of purchases this year.
A further concern is the impending introduction of Osborne's new capital gains on residential property owned by overseas nationals which is due to take effect from April 2015.
Price rises for super-prime London property started to abate in the middle of 2013 and are currently static in real terms at best. Savills report that such properties average 2,338 pounds a square foot, the same as in 2011 and 2012. The slowest value gains are being recorded in Knightsbridge and Belgravia, which rose 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.
The impact of foreign investment on central London property in 2013 has been much discussed on PB. The Savills report reveals that foreign investors bought £5.2 billion of super-prime homes ['super-prime' defined as having a value > £5 million] in the U.K. More than 160 homes sold for more than £10 million, a quarter more than in 2012, with 500 properties sold for more than £5 million, a 25% increase on the year before.
With stamp duty rates much higher for prime property, the foreign investment boom in London has been the major cause of land tax receipts by the exchequer rising 28% above OBR's original March forecast in the first 7 months of the 2013-14 fiscal year, leading to a revised OBR full year forecast £8.9 bn over £6.9 bn in 2012-13..
While few on PB will weep tears for the adverse winds holding back these foreign purchasers, the Savills report does carry an early warning of how international confidence in the UK may be affected by UK politics and how the prospects for inbound investment may be dependent on the 2015 election outcome.0 -
Not quite so bleakPulpstar said:
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%0 -
UKIP were arguably overestimated in the ComRes May 2013 local elections poll.
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%
0 -
Not really, I'm expecting the polls to be sub-optimal for the Tories for the first half of the year, as people get their christmas credit card bills/pay that debt off which have a detrimental effect on economic confidence, and push down VI, plus I suspect UKIP will surge up to and May and comfortably outpoll the Tories in the Euros.Tykejohnno said:
Agree,Mr Eagles,are you worried so far with the early polls of 2014 ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be more that the Tories hadn't made much progress in 2014, which would be disturbing, given the expected improvement in the economy in 2014.Tykejohnno said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
If Dave and the Tory party can hold their nerve and not panic, after the Euros we'll have a fighting chance.
Look at where we were a year ago, The Tories polling in the high 20s, Labour in the 40s, now it's the Tories in the low-mid 30s and Labour in the 36-40% range, which means the Lab lead has shrunk by half.
So there's a small improvement.0 -
I think Patrick's core figures may not be far out for GEs - in midterms when in Government we all drift lower but it's not that the core voters have deserted, just that some are only available for GEs. I disagree with Patrick that the "borrowed" leftish vote is not solid - as Mike and I have said and lots of polling evidence bears out, it's actually more solid than the Labour core, because they are switching for a specific reason ("We don't want another coalition with the Tories") rather than habit.david_herdson said:
I'd put all the core votes a good deal lower:
Con: c.20% - see 1994-5 and 1997-9, then add in further potential losses now to UKIP
Lab: c.22% - see 2008/9.
LD: 5% - See 1950s, 1988-9, Scotland now.
It would take a perfect storm of conditions to get the shares down to those sorts of levels but I'd reckon on the rock-solid base being no higher.
The only point on which we disagree is the impact of the economy. The general view is that people shift their votes with economic news, but there has been a marked shift in opinion about the economy since last spring, and it's had virtually no effect on voting intention. (If things turned sour I don't think it would make much difference either.)
0 -
There have been no polls that are based on VI turnouts of 18 to 30%isam said:
Temper temperMarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
If you'd like to find a recent example of UKIP being over estimated in a poll compared to the physical result I'd be interested to see it0 -
So much of the CON electoral challenge is down to first past the post. By far the biggest benficiary of the current system is Labour.Hugh said:
If 2010 LDs go "back" to Lib Dem tactically, it could reduce Labour's overall vote share whilst increasing their chances of a majority.Patrick said:The Tories are their core vote of about 1/3 of the electorate.
UKIP are at their core vote of about 1/10 - but rising.
The LibDems are at their 'not so lefty' core vote of about 1/10. The lefties aren't coming back.
Labour are at their core vote of about 1/3 PLUS a bunch of borrowed votes from disaffected lefties. The core vote is solid but not so much the rest of their current polling.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the 2015 GE will see the UKIP number gain slightly - my prediction is 12%.
Labour will weaken a bit as the choice looms and Ed N Ed are more in the news - I'm going for 35%
The LibDems will flatline or recover slightly - I'm going for 11%
And The Blues will recover a bit as another 18months of attacks and good news bites - I'm going for 35%. Yes I think it will be neck and neck for the two main parties.
Which will leave us in 2015 with - a mess. But Miliband as a weak PM.
Pleasingly, it might be the quirks of FPTP that end up booting Cameron out of Downing St.
0 -
@AveryLP,I look forward to you economic data post,did you mention this today ;-)
UK industrial output and construction data miss forecasts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-256815590 -
See Mike's thread on the Scottish election 2011 from yesterday. Events may intervene in between to make me firm up an opinion as to what will happen but at the moment, I wouldn't like to commit to a prediction a fortnight out.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
0 -
What about Opinion polls relating to by election since 2012 and last Mays locals?MarkSenior said:
There have been no polls that are based on VI turnouts of 18 to 30%isam said:
Temper temperMarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
If you'd like to find a recent example of UKIP being over estimated in a poll compared to the physical result I'd be interested to see it0 -
Hmmm "arguably" being the operative wordMikeSmithson said:UKIP were arguably overestimated in the ComRes May 2013 local elections poll.
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%0 -
That was a poll that didn't prompt for UKIP.MikeSmithson said:UKIP were arguably overestimated in the ComRes May 2013 local elections poll.
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%0 -
It's all irrelevant whilst Gove remains in the Cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, I'm expecting the polls to be sub-optimal for the Tories for the first half of the year, as people get their christmas credit card bills/pay that debt off which have a detrimental effect on economic confidence, and push down VI, plus I suspect UKIP will surge up to and May and comfortably outpoll the Tories in the Euros.Tykejohnno said:
Agree,Mr Eagles,are you worried so far with the early polls of 2014 ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be more that the Tories hadn't made much progress in 2014, which would be disturbing, given the expected improvement in the economy in 2014.Tykejohnno said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If we're 5 points or more behind at the end of the year with ICM.Tykejohnno said:Can someone on PB tell me when should the conservatives start to think they have lost the 2015 GE,now,6 months,late 2014 ,start of 2015 - when ?
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
If Dave and the Tory party can hold their nerve and not panic, after the Euros we'll have a fighting chance.
Look at where we were a year ago, The Tories polling in the high 20s, Labour in the 40s, now it's the Tories in the low-mid 30s and Labour in the 36-40% range, which means the Lab lead has shrunk by half.
So there's a small improvement.
0 -
I think the reason the economy's not had much impact on VI so far is that people aren't feeling it themselves (hence the living standards debate), so assume that either the stats are out or that it's other people (and specifically people not like them) who are benefitting.NickPalmer said:
I think Patrick's core figures may not be far out for GEs - in midterms when in Government we all drift lower but it's not that the core voters have deserted, just that some are only available for GEs. I disagree with Patrick that the "borrowed" leftish vote is not solid - as Mike and I have said and lots of polling evidence bears out, it's actually more solid than the Labour core, because they are switching for a specific reason ("We don't want another coalition with the Tories") rather than habit.david_herdson said:
I'd put all the core votes a good deal lower:
Con: c.20% - see 1994-5 and 1997-9, then add in further potential losses now to UKIP
Lab: c.22% - see 2008/9.
LD: 5% - See 1950s, 1988-9, Scotland now.
It would take a perfect storm of conditions to get the shares down to those sorts of levels but I'd reckon on the rock-solid base being no higher.
The only point on which we disagree is the impact of the economy. The general view is that people shift their votes with economic news, but there has been a marked shift in opinion about the economy since last spring, and it's had virtually no effect on voting intention. (If things turned sour I don't think it would make much difference either.)0 -
I'm not sure that that is correctTheScreamingEagles said:
That was a poll that didn't prompt for UKIP.MikeSmithson said:UKIP were arguably overestimated in the ComRes May 2013 local elections poll.
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%
0 -
Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10928586.UPDATED__Wells__very_close__to_Huddersfield_Town_move/
Bloody hell no,not huddersfeld,the deal better be good one for Bradford.0 -
Yup. It does appear that the rates of growth achieved between July and October have begun to fall off in the last two months of this calendar year. This should not distract us from the fact that annual growth rates for the final quarter remain strong:Tykejohnno said:@AveryLP,I look forward to you economic data post,did you mention this today ;-)
UK industrial output and construction data miss forecasts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25681559
Production output rose by 2.5% between November 2012 and November 2013. This increase reflects rises in manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining & quarrying and the water supply, sewerage & waste management sectors.
If you want to be silly and cherry pick the good news - and I always enjoy being silly - then the Brummie Metal Bashers so fondly spoken of by Mr. Brooke are the true heroes of the hour:
The basic iron & steel industry provided the largest contribution to growth in the manufacture of basic metals & metal products between November 2012 and November 2013, recording its highest growth, 34.3% [Yes, 34.3%!], since records began in January 1998.
Similarly, the disappointing month on previous month figures in construction are not being seen by the ONS as indicative of a reversal of the longer term growth trend:
Despite the month on month fall in November the longer term picture is one of growth with construction output estimated to have risen by 2.2% when comparing November 2013 with November 2012, the sixth consecutive month on a year ago increase. The 2.2% year on year increase in all work was due to a 3.2% increase in new work and a more modest 0.6% increase in repair and maintenance.
With PMIs and other confidence surveys upbeat, the overall picture is one of short term peak growth rates slowing. The best comment I have seen in the economic press on the current position is by James Ashley, an economist at RBC Capital Markets:
"[This is] something of a reality check for those getting a little carried away by the strength of the U.K. recovery. The recovery remains broadly on track -– but today’s data are a reminder that we have not yet reached the sunlit uplands that would pave the way towards thoughts of policy tightening.”
No need to panic yet, Tyke!
0 -
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour
0 -
Some of my post are missing a letter to a word,it's not me this time ;-) it's my key board ;-)0
-
"In the local election next Thursday do you intend to vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?"MikeSmithson said:
I'm not sure that that is correctTheScreamingEagles said:
That was a poll that didn't prompt for UKIP.MikeSmithson said:UKIP were arguably overestimated in the ComRes May 2013 local elections poll.
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/73720 -
It is embarrassing to see the pro immigration people tying themselves in knots, realising no doubt that they were wrong all along, but too tied to a dogma to admit it. I actually feel sorry for them.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
There was a suggestion on the last thread that he may have flubbed the line and meant to say something less meaningful, but I just watched the video and I think he's a tit. He can't even do a stupid pander properly.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
Plebgate:
They were just saying on Radio 5 that Keith Wallis has offered to resign from the Met now he has pleaded guilty, but the Met say he can't resign as he's suspended. They want to put him through their disciplinary process first.
Will he still be getting paid whilst that process goes on?
On one hand, he shouldn't get any money. On the other, in other cases suspended officers might well be found not guilty, and they deserve to be paid whilst being investigated.
A difficult one.0 -
Well I don't feel sorry for them ;-) just wait for more of this from left and right after the European elections.isam said:
It is embarrassing to see the pro immigration people tying themselves in knots, realising no doubt that they were wrong all along, but too tied to a dogma to admit it. I actually feel sorry for them.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour
0 -
Mr Senior you spent much of the last parliament convincing us that the best predictor of LD performance at a GE was their performance at local elections.MarkSenior said:
Not quite so bleakPulpstar said:
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
0 -
One only hopes he is elected next labour leader,that should be fun ;-)edmundintokyo said:
There was a suggestion on the last thread that he may have flubbed the line and meant to say something less meaningful, but I just watched the video and I think he's a tit. He can't even do a stupid pander properly.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour
0 -
And I was correct which is why I am expecting Lib Dems to get 16-17% in 2015 .anotherDave said:
Mr Senior you spent much of the last parliament convincing us that the best predictor of LD performance at a GE was their performance at local elections.MarkSenior said:
Not quite so bleakPulpstar said:
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
0 -
Seems unlikely, he doesn't seem to be very good at politics.Tykejohnno said:
One only hopes he is elected next labour leader,that should be fun ;-)edmundintokyo said:
There was a suggestion on the last thread that he may have flubbed the line and meant to say something less meaningful, but I just watched the video and I think he's a tit. He can't even do a stupid pander properly.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
When levels of immigration concern run in the 70/80%, even the most pro-immigration supporter must realise they're utterly on the wrong side of opinion.isam said:
It is embarrassing to see the pro immigration people tying themselves in knots, realising no doubt that they were wrong all along, but too tied to a dogma to admit it. I actually feel sorry for them.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
?MarkSenior said:
And I was correct which is why I am expecting Lib Dems to get 16-17% in 2015 .anotherDave said:
Mr Senior you spent much of the last parliament convincing us that the best predictor of LD performance at a GE was their performance at local elections.MarkSenior said:
Not quite so bleakPulpstar said:
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
The LD local election results show a 10 point drop on the last parliament, so you must surely be expecting ~13% in 2015?
0 -
Didn't stop dave ;-)edmundintokyo said:
Seems unlikely, he doesn't seem to be very good at politics.Tykejohnno said:
One only hopes he is elected next labour leader,that should be fun ;-)edmundintokyo said:
There was a suggestion on the last thread that he may have flubbed the line and meant to say something less meaningful, but I just watched the video and I think he's a tit. He can't even do a stupid pander properly.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour
0 -
Considering he has now pleaded guilty, it ought to be possible to complete a disciplinary process in no more than a couple of weeks. The plea alone should be enough to secure his dismissal.JosiasJessop said:Plebgate:
They were just saying on Radio 5 that Keith Wallis has offered to resign from the Met now he has pleaded guilty, but the Met say he can't resign as he's suspended. They want to put him through their disciplinary process first.
Will he still be getting paid whilst that process goes on?
On one hand, he shouldn't get any money. On the other, in other cases suspended officers might well be found not guilty, and they deserve to be paid whilst being investigated.
A difficult one.0 -
Dave was pretty good in his day. He'd have done better up against Blair in a good economy. His problem was the world changed under his feet, and he was better suited to the old one than the new one.Tykejohnno said:
Didn't stop dave ;-)edmundintokyo said:
Seems unlikely, he doesn't seem to be very good at politics.Tykejohnno said:
One only hopes he is elected next labour leader,that should be fun ;-)edmundintokyo said:
There was a suggestion on the last thread that he may have flubbed the line and meant to say something less meaningful, but I just watched the video and I think he's a tit. He can't even do a stupid pander properly.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder what the pro EU immigration labour pb think of this ? they must be fuming with our chuka - lolTheWatcher said:Ho hum.
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour0 -
Nope , because in previous parliaments we were in opposition and now we are in government so there will be an element of swing back which we cannot quantify as there is no previous precedent except possibly 1979 .anotherDave said:
?MarkSenior said:
And I was correct which is why I am expecting Lib Dems to get 16-17% in 2015 .anotherDave said:
Mr Senior you spent much of the last parliament convincing us that the best predictor of LD performance at a GE was their performance at local elections.MarkSenior said:
Not quite so bleakPulpstar said:
Looking bleak for the Lib Dems then...MarkSenior said:
It is utterly crass of you to compare national VI polls with percentages polled in by elections . Just go back and look at the national VI polls at the time of say the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester by elections in 2004 , the national polls had the Lib Dems at nothing like the levels polled in the by elections . Which figures were more applicable to the 2005 GE , it was the national VI polls and not the by election results .isam said:
On the last thread I showed what yougov & opinium were making UKIP (National) on the days of the last few by elections compared with the actual results (constituency)AndyJS said:The fact that the pollsters may be having trouble accurately assessing UKIP support certainly makes politics interesting again. Things were getting a little boring because the polling firms had got so good at assessing the popularity of the three established main parties, (after many decades of trial and error, of course).
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
The LD local election results show a 10 point drop on the last parliament, so you must surely be expecting ~13% in 2015?
0 -
@MarkSenior The main thing those by-elections show is that Labour voters didn't really want to turn out mid term, Iraq probably being a major factor.
But when push came to shove at the GE out they trudged, giving Tony Blair his 3rd majority.0 -
"I think the reason the economy's not had much impact on VI so far is that people aren't feeling it themselves"
Mr. Herdson is probably correct (as usual). However, I might suggest that in rural and semi-rural England at least the state of the economy might not have the pull on likely Conservative voters as it once did.
There are other issues that are claiming the voters attention and where they are jolly angry at the Conservatives. From a recent, admittedly unscientific, survey carried out during a recent meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Association reasons given why members would not be voting Conservatives in May or in 2015 were: planning, immigration, Europe, Cameron is a two faced lying canute, energy (bills and policy), defence, overseas aid, planning and, oh, planning. Nobody mentioned the state of the economy or taxes.
Wildly unscientific I know, but I gently suggest that if Cameron and Co think that if the economy grows then they will win back their lost support, let alone new voters, they may be disappointed.0 -
I think this is a key point. As Mike has previously posted, the reason the current system favours Labour is because of three factorsAndyJS said:
Unless Labour piles up huge majorities in seats they already hold, which I think is a possibility. Betting on Labour getting over 35% but less than 326 seats might be worth considering.MikeSmithson said:@Patrick And 35%-35% means EdM gets to Downing Street possibly with a majority
1) Lower turnout in Labour strongholds
2) The boundary changes not happening
3) Labour's vote being more efficiently distributed
Now 1 and 2 aren't going to change but 3 might:
The reasons for the Labour vote being more efficient are tactical anti-Tory voting and the fact that the LDs took a lot of votes from Labour in the north without winning many seats
In the north, we know from the local elections that we should expect big LD-Lab swings in seats such as Liverpool Wavertree, Hull N, Newcastle N etc but Lab already has all these seats
Meanwhile in LD-Tory fights in the South, Lab has been massively squeezed. While many will stick with the LDs it is hard to see Labour not picking up at least a few wasted votes
These should make the Labour vote less efficient
Meanwhile the Tories will be worried about UKIP and will run big vote UKIP get Labour campaigns in the marginals. However, this won't happen in safe seats and I would expect UKIP to gain more votes in safe Tory seats without winning many.
This will make the Con vote more efficient.
Overall my theory is that LD-Lab switchers won't help Labour as much as they think0 -
As a Bristol City fan I can tell you, we're pretty pleased about this!Tykejohnno said:http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10928586.UPDATED__Wells__very_close__to_Huddersfield_Town_move/
Bloody hell no,not huddersfeld,the deal better be good one for Bradford.0 -
On Plebgate; there's still no answer to the question on everyone's lips, the only important question: why did Dave sit on the CCTV evidence for three months?0
-
HurstLlama
Was the planning discontent that there is too much being granted and we're despoiling the countryside or that there is not enough and it's too hard to do anything / I want an extension?0 -
But Cameron and Co (including the Lib Dems) message at the 2015 election will be, Don't let Labour ruin it again.HurstLlama said:"I think the reason the economy's not had much impact on VI so far is that people aren't feeling it themselves"
Mr. Herdson is probably correct (as usual). However, I might suggest that in rural and semi-rural England at least the state of the economy might not have the pull on likely Conservative voters as it once did.
There are other issues that are claiming the voters attention and where they are jolly angry at the Conservatives. From a recent, admittedly unscientific, survey carried out during a recent meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Association reasons given why members would not be voting Conservatives in May or in 2015 were: planning, immigration, Europe, Cameron is a two faced lying canute, energy (bills and policy), defence, overseas aid, planning and, oh, planning. Nobody mentioned the state of the economy or taxes.
Wildly unscientific I know, but I gently suggest that if Cameron and Co think that if the economy grows then they will win back their lost support, let alone new voters, they may be disappointed.
Given the broad trend of support for the coalition/Tories on general economic matters, it may be a successful strategy for them.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
