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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Populus poll of 2014 sees LAB lead up 5 percent
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Populus poll of 2014 sees LAB lead up 5 percent
This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error.
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What trouble would the Conservatives be in now... Probably as a good reason as any for the rise of UKIP
@RichardTyndall
isam said:
One thing I instinctively disagreed with Paul Nuttall on last night was this request for policeman to wear cameras to check they don't shoot unarmed people...
Isn't this like setting the field for bad bowling at the start of a test match? Surely the Police interview process should weed out the type of person who cant be trusted with a gun?
Richard said...
Sorry but I have to disagree with you. One could have said exactly the same thing about police interviewing suspects after arrest which used to be done without recording and which was very liable to corruption and 'adjustment ' or 'clarification'.
When someone has that amount of power and cannot be absolutely trusted (as the police certainly cannot by now) it is necessary to make use of whatever technology is available to keep them on the straight and narrow.
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Believe me I am no particular fan of the police, having been thrown to the floor, handcuffed so tightly it left scars for months and put in a cell for the night for literally doing nothing, when I was 21.
They let me call my Dad at 4am and he came to pick me up, but when they overheard me telling him I had been banged up for no reason, they turned him away and didn't let me out till 530am!
So I have no doubt they can be corrupt
Maybe I am being too idealistic, but my point is that he kind of person that cant be trusted not to shoot someone, not to falsify confessions etc etc shouldnt be in the police force in the first place
I guess I am too naïve and what you're saying is we should assume they are all bent unless video evidence proves otherwise?
Seems a bit Big Brother to me
The guilty plea in Plebgate is big news. Whether or not it's correct, it will be interpreted as vindication for Andrew Mitchell.
Agree – And it doesn’t look good for the three police officers accused of deceiving MPs over ‘Plebgate’ who now face a new investigation by the police watchdog.
Put yourself in the position of that officer - would you rather you filmed the incident or not ?!
As Mike says, nothing much is happening to voting intention as we roll towards May 2015. I did notice a 5-point jump in today's double-edged rating for the Tories as being a party willing to say unpopular things - presumably this is a response to Osborne. But VI seems quite settled and people interpret this sort of thing in accordance with VI rather than vice versa - Tories think good, our man is brave and honest and he wants to slash someone else's benefits further, Labour voters think ugh, Osborne admits he wants to screw us all some more.
Things that might still shift VI substantially, apart from black swans:
Budget 2014 (budgets don't usually have a lasting effect though)
Labour special conference (might be seen as boring internal matter or have small + or - effect)
Trial verdicts (more likely to be seen in context of individuals IMO)
Autumn statement (meh)
Euro-election (important for narrative about UKIP - arguably the most significant coming event)
Scottish referendum (obviously very important if Yes, perhaps a bit meh if No)
Autumn conferences (don't usually shift much)
Budget 2015 and election campaign (ditto)
And that's about it, isn't it? I'm exaggerating the no-change factors a bit, probably, but we tend to overstate the probability of radical shifts.
Who is this man?
Has Mike been ennobled and no one told us?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/cardiff-city-v-west-ham/total-home-goals
Basically I think we should be able to trust the police to do their job, and should take their word as the truth...
Obviously that would have led to miscarriages of justices over the years, but I say make the police better not film everything to check they're not bent
@rcs_1000
Really I think the police should be assumed to be upstanding, honest and doing what they think is right
Same as teachers...
Yes, there have been bad examples of both, but the undermining of trust in them is bad for discipline in schools and on the streets
Let's say, we get a few polls showing the Tories ahead, which is possible with say Ipsos-Mori because of their turn out filter, and possibly with ICM.
That could change the debate, and see Labour panicking.
I think the other trigger could be the leader ratings, Nick Clegg is only 4 points behind Ed Miliband in the Gold standard of leader ratings.
Imagine if Ed starts to trail to Nick Clegg.
Labour will also have a big choice when it comes to economic policy going forward between:
Spend more than the Coalition - popular with the left but gives the coalition a lot of ammunition
Match the Coalition's spending plans - more economic credibility but will upset the left
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Hogan-Howe apologises to Andrew Mitchell for first time, though he's not actually contacted Mitchell yet, just told the press that he will
(We've all been there)
UKIP are at their core vote of about 1/10 - but rising.
The LibDems are at their 'not so lefty' core vote of about 1/10. The lefties aren't coming back.
Labour are at their core vote of about 1/3 PLUS a bunch of borrowed votes from disaffected lefties. The core vote is solid but not so much the rest of their current polling.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the 2015 GE will see the UKIP number gain slightly - my prediction is 12%.
Labour will weaken a bit as the choice looms and Ed N Ed are more in the news - I'm going for 35%
The LibDems will flatline or recover slightly - I'm going for 11%
And The Blues will recover a bit as another 18months of attacks and good news bites - I'm going for 35%. Yes I think it will be neck and neck for the two main parties.
Which will leave us in 2015 with - a mess. But Miliband as a weak PM.
I feel really sorry for Mitchell over this.
Only once were they anywhere near, the rest of the time miles under..
And this was from Eastleigh, Corby, Middlesbrough, South Shields.. varying types of seat
UKIP don't have to win in Sutton Coldfield to scare the bejesus out of the Tory party just get a big swing.
Ian Paisley: Dublin provoked bombs and Bloody Sunday was legal protest
Ex-DUP leader makes startling statements about 1974 loyalist car-bombs, election-rigging and father being on IRA hitlist
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/10/ian-paisley-bloody-sunday-legal-protest-dublin-bombs
The police have proved themselves time and again to be prone to corruption and willing to lie to protect themselves or improve their clean up rates. This means we should always be looking for ways to tighten our watch over them.
The argument is not the same as that of ID cards. The police are their as our servants (hence the name public servant) and as such they should be answerable to the public.
The government and police are not the masters, we are.
Con: c.20% - see 1994-5 and 1997-9, then add in further potential losses now to UKIP
Lab: c.22% - see 2008/9.
LD: 5% - See 1950s, 1988-9, Scotland now.
It would take a perfect storm of conditions to get the shares down to those sorts of levels but I'd reckon on the rock-solid base being no higher.
I reckon if we suggested filming suspected criminals constantly, without any trial or reason other than we think they might be up to no good, the Human Rights lawyers would be tripping over themselves to say it "wasn't fair"
If West Ham played the England cricket team the entire world of sport would fold up into itself and disappear like the end of Poltergeist.
You would think the GE lost only 5 points behind at end of year,I would be more worried if it was 8 to 10 points behind,fighting chance with 5 ?
Will be closer.
If you'd like to find a recent example of UKIP being over estimated in a poll compared to the physical result I'd be interested to see it
Not either Working Class enough for UKIP, or Retired.
Labour increased their share from 28% to 32% but only increased their number of seats by 20. The main reason was huge swings in seats they already held in places like Scotland, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, etc.
Savills, the estate agents, are predicting a slowdown of interest in London prime residential property in the run up to the 2015 General Election.
Uncertainty over the outcome of the election, with the risk of a Miliband victory lessening the attraction of London as a destination for inbound investment, is likely to cause a fall in the volume of purchases this year.
A further concern is the impending introduction of Osborne's new capital gains on residential property owned by overseas nationals which is due to take effect from April 2015.
Price rises for super-prime London property started to abate in the middle of 2013 and are currently static in real terms at best. Savills report that such properties average 2,338 pounds a square foot, the same as in 2011 and 2012. The slowest value gains are being recorded in Knightsbridge and Belgravia, which rose 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.
The impact of foreign investment on central London property in 2013 has been much discussed on PB. The Savills report reveals that foreign investors bought £5.2 billion of super-prime homes ['super-prime' defined as having a value > £5 million] in the U.K. More than 160 homes sold for more than £10 million, a quarter more than in 2012, with 500 properties sold for more than £5 million, a 25% increase on the year before.
With stamp duty rates much higher for prime property, the foreign investment boom in London has been the major cause of land tax receipts by the exchequer rising 28% above OBR's original March forecast in the first 7 months of the 2013-14 fiscal year, leading to a revised OBR full year forecast £8.9 bn over £6.9 bn in 2012-13..
While few on PB will weep tears for the adverse winds holding back these foreign purchasers, the Savills report does carry an early warning of how international confidence in the UK may be affected by UK politics and how the prospects for inbound investment may be dependent on the 2015 election outcome.
LD VI Jan 2000 12-17% GE 2001 19%
LD VI Jan 2004 18-19% GE 2005 22%
LD VI Jan 2009 14-15% GE 2009 23%
The final tally on all votes cast had them on 19.9%. ComRes on 22%
In seats that they contested the figure was 24.3%
If Dave and the Tory party can hold their nerve and not panic, after the Euros we'll have a fighting chance.
Look at where we were a year ago, The Tories polling in the high 20s, Labour in the 40s, now it's the Tories in the low-mid 30s and Labour in the 36-40% range, which means the Lab lead has shrunk by half.
So there's a small improvement.
The only point on which we disagree is the impact of the economy. The general view is that people shift their votes with economic news, but there has been a marked shift in opinion about the economy since last spring, and it's had virtually no effect on voting intention. (If things turned sour I don't think it would make much difference either.)
UK industrial output and construction data miss forecasts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25681559
'A change to one of the founding principles of the EU – freedom of movement – should be introduced to prevent EU citizens travelling to Britain in search of a job, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has said.'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/10/stop-eu-citizens-travelling-uk-work-labour
Bloody hell no,not huddersfeld,the deal better be good one for Bradford.
Production output rose by 2.5% between November 2012 and November 2013. This increase reflects rises in manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining & quarrying and the water supply, sewerage & waste management sectors.
If you want to be silly and cherry pick the good news - and I always enjoy being silly - then the Brummie Metal Bashers so fondly spoken of by Mr. Brooke are the true heroes of the hour:
The basic iron & steel industry provided the largest contribution to growth in the manufacture of basic metals & metal products between November 2012 and November 2013, recording its highest growth, 34.3% [Yes, 34.3%!], since records began in January 1998.
Similarly, the disappointing month on previous month figures in construction are not being seen by the ONS as indicative of a reversal of the longer term growth trend:
Despite the month on month fall in November the longer term picture is one of growth with construction output estimated to have risen by 2.2% when comparing November 2013 with November 2012, the sixth consecutive month on a year ago increase. The 2.2% year on year increase in all work was due to a 3.2% increase in new work and a more modest 0.6% increase in repair and maintenance.
With PMIs and other confidence surveys upbeat, the overall picture is one of short term peak growth rates slowing. The best comment I have seen in the economic press on the current position is by James Ashley, an economist at RBC Capital Markets:
"[This is] something of a reality check for those getting a little carried away by the strength of the U.K. recovery. The recovery remains broadly on track -– but today’s data are a reminder that we have not yet reached the sunlit uplands that would pave the way towards thoughts of policy tightening.”
No need to panic yet, Tyke!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7372
They were just saying on Radio 5 that Keith Wallis has offered to resign from the Met now he has pleaded guilty, but the Met say he can't resign as he's suspended. They want to put him through their disciplinary process first.
Will he still be getting paid whilst that process goes on?
On one hand, he shouldn't get any money. On the other, in other cases suspended officers might well be found not guilty, and they deserve to be paid whilst being investigated.
A difficult one.
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
The LD local election results show a 10 point drop on the last parliament, so you must surely be expecting ~13% in 2015?
But when push came to shove at the GE out they trudged, giving Tony Blair his 3rd majority.
Mr. Herdson is probably correct (as usual). However, I might suggest that in rural and semi-rural England at least the state of the economy might not have the pull on likely Conservative voters as it once did.
There are other issues that are claiming the voters attention and where they are jolly angry at the Conservatives. From a recent, admittedly unscientific, survey carried out during a recent meeting of the Hurstpierpoint and District Gentlemen's Temperance Association reasons given why members would not be voting Conservatives in May or in 2015 were: planning, immigration, Europe, Cameron is a two faced lying canute, energy (bills and policy), defence, overseas aid, planning and, oh, planning. Nobody mentioned the state of the economy or taxes.
Wildly unscientific I know, but I gently suggest that if Cameron and Co think that if the economy grows then they will win back their lost support, let alone new voters, they may be disappointed.
1) Lower turnout in Labour strongholds
2) The boundary changes not happening
3) Labour's vote being more efficiently distributed
Now 1 and 2 aren't going to change but 3 might:
The reasons for the Labour vote being more efficient are tactical anti-Tory voting and the fact that the LDs took a lot of votes from Labour in the north without winning many seats
In the north, we know from the local elections that we should expect big LD-Lab swings in seats such as Liverpool Wavertree, Hull N, Newcastle N etc but Lab already has all these seats
Meanwhile in LD-Tory fights in the South, Lab has been massively squeezed. While many will stick with the LDs it is hard to see Labour not picking up at least a few wasted votes
These should make the Labour vote less efficient
Meanwhile the Tories will be worried about UKIP and will run big vote UKIP get Labour campaigns in the marginals. However, this won't happen in safe seats and I would expect UKIP to gain more votes in safe Tory seats without winning many.
This will make the Con vote more efficient.
Overall my theory is that LD-Lab switchers won't help Labour as much as they think
Was the planning discontent that there is too much being granted and we're despoiling the countryside or that there is not enough and it's too hard to do anything / I want an extension?
Given the broad trend of support for the coalition/Tories on general economic matters, it may be a successful strategy for them.