politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For all the machinations of the past few days the betting is s

rpjs said:

FPT:


Yup, because your supply chains were built up over time with your customs procedures built in. Plus you are a net exporter of food, are you not? Brexit Britain is very much not a net exporter of food, and may find that suddenly disrupting its supply chains with previously non-existent customs procedures to be an experience not necessarily to its advantage.

This is such a canard. If the new procedures will lengthen the process of getting food in the country, have a transition period. We are bright enough to think about transition periods in relation to a new arrangement with the EU, so why on earth would we not be bright enough to have transitional arrangements (which could be unilateral if it is to be a no-deal Brexit) to ensure that there is not abrupt disruption of the supply chain?

If it is a no deal Brexit, we will have full control of the customs procedures in place for imports, including the right to waive procedures entirely until infrastructure is in place to cope.

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

More importantly, how was the match?

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

as a paid up member of the celtic fringe I wish England every success tonight

AlastairMeeks said:

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

no need to worry Essex boy, as long as we have remainers there'll be no shortage of sour grapes

I assume you'll be celebrating with sparkling vinegar tonight ?

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Why hypocritical?

As a consumer you are making a choice

It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself

I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.

daodao said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.

I.e. used by the true villains (the Brexiteers) as an excuse for their failure?

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, I’ve always expected this Parliament to see out its term. The more chaotic it is, the less it is under any one group’s control to bring it to an end.

To me 2021 looks underpriced.
I don't see why TM or a future Tory leader would particularly want to cling on for the final year, the Brexit transition will likely be done by then and polling may have improved by then.

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

More importantly, how was the match?

Weird!

France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.

Yes, France's Kante, Pogba and defence generally did a wonderful job of neutralising Belgium, whose attacking midfield is far better than ours. However, this might be where we are helped by England's reliance on scoring from set pieces rather than open play. Still, we mustn't get ahead of ourselves: there's still Croatia to beat first.

Insofar as you can tell from watching on telly, there do seem to have been more fans from Central and South America and fewer from Europe than you'd expect.

Foxy said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Why hypocritical?

As a consumer you are making a choice

It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself

I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of data privacy and mega-internet companies, I think when you're up against a system - there is something to be said for just focusing on the most egregious offender, or the offender that symbolises the problem best.

Perhaps you should delete all your apps, cut yourself off from technology and live as a digital outcast in a cabin in the woods. But short of that, I think focusing on one company is a reasonable start, which will worry their industry peers, raise the issue with lawmakers and hopefully lead to wider change.

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

More importantly, how was the match?

Weird!

France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.

Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.

not_on_fire said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

She will if Labour supports the deal

Yes. But what is their price?
Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.

Good morning, everyone.

Yeah, I reckon a 2022 election very likely as well.

Bloody Belgians.

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

More importantly, how was the match?

Weird!

France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.

Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.

Lukaku was completely Isolated, and Hazard the only real threat. Belgium looked better with him on the wing.

Lots of poor finishing by the frogs,

SouthamObserver said:

And how do you have a full term Parliament if there is a No Deal?

If everything's on fire then the government isn't going to want to call an election.

Gardenwalker said:

not_on_fire said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

She will if Labour supports the deal

Yes. But what is their price?
Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.

But it's not Labour, per se, that she needs to support it. We all know Corbyn won't, for a number of reasons.

She needs three groups on board:

1) A large majority of her backbenchers - which she has;

2) The Labour remainers - a large majority of the PLP, who dislike Corbyn and don't want him in power because they know how big a disaster he would be for the country and for their party. I think this is why Barwell took the very unusual step of briefing Opposition MPs on the proposals. She seems to be trying to reach over the head of Corbyn;

3) The EU. To be blunt they are the ones who will take most persuading and that may be where (as I said the other day) these resignations have helped. Even Barnier now seems to have twigged that May can't just cave in to anything he demands and he has sounded a lot more amiable in the last 48 hours.

Could it work? Well, it requires many stars to align but in the mess we're in with no deal and chaos here and on the continent a real risk we don't have an awful lot to lose.

Dura_Ace said:

not_on_fire said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

She will if Labour supports the deal

If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.

Corbyn yes but many of his mps no

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

More importantly, how was the match?

Weird!

France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.

Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.

Lukaku was completely Isolated, and Hazard the only real threat. Belgium looked better with him on the wing.

Lots of poor finishing by the frogs,

Surprised Chadli stayed on, he offered very little tbh. And Dembele was really surprisingly poor I thought. Mertens had an impact when he came on.

Foxy said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Why hypocritical?

As a consumer you are making a choice

It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself

I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.

That just makes you selectively promiscuous, not hypocritical surely?

Foxy said:

daodao said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.

Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?

Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

The_Mule_ said:

Foxy said:

daodao said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.

Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?

Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>

Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.

edmundintokyo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

not_on_fire said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

She will if Labour supports the deal

Yes. But what is their price?
Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.

But it's not Labour, per se, that she needs to support it. We all know Corbyn won't, for a number of reasons.

She needs three groups on board:

1) A large majority of her backbenchers - which she has;

2) The Labour remainers - a large majority of the PLP, who dislike Corbyn and don't want him in power because they know how big a disaster he would be for the country and for their party. I think this is why Barwell took the very unusual step of briefing Opposition MPs on the proposals. She seems to be trying to reach over the head of Corbyn;

3) The EU. To be blunt they are the ones who will take most persuading and that may be where (as I said the other day) these resignations have helped. Even Barnier now seems to have twigged that May can't just cave in to anything he demands and he has sounded a lot more amiable in the last 48 hours.

Could it work? Well, it requires many stars to align but in the mess we're in with no deal and chaos here and on the continent a real risk we don't have an awful lot to lose.

Agree - the Brexiteers will have made the EU much more aware that they risk a real no deal situation and this in itself will focus minds.

Good to ses Airbus and business yesterday welcoming the moves and in turn businesses EU wide will have seen the way things are heading and will be ramping up pressure on the governments to do a deal to protect their own jobs. TM is to meet all the EU leaders individually and negotiate directly with them.

This last few days have been tumultuous but also have increased the chance of a deal (Barnier said yesterday they were 80% there) and of course there are only two options now, deal or no deal, remain is off the table

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.

DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.

Meanwhile back with the sauer krauts

Germans demand US stop messing with NATO but cant actually fulfil their own commitments and don't want to increase military spending

eitherhttps://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus179140150/Nato-Gipfel-Angela-Merkel-kann-in-Bruessel-nicht-liefern.html

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article179144290/Umfrage-Deutsche-sind-klar-gegen-Erhoehung-von-Militaerausgaben.html


should make for an interesting summit

ydoethur said:

Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

It won't be Labour who blocked it, it will have been the ERG faction of the tories. Labour don't owe May any favours, pity or mercy and it's not up to them to deliver the government's program in the HoC.

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.

True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.

DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.

If I had a pound for every time someone on here said Boris' credibility is shot....
[not that I disagree with you]

The_Mule_ said:

ydoethur said:

The_Mule_ said:

Foxy said:

daodao said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.

Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?

Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>

Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.

They signed an armistice with lots of conditions - conditions only they themselves had to for fill - no hard border and a Rhine backstop for the army.

Versailles means Versailles

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.

Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is

edmundintokyo said:

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.

True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".

Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.

Okaaay...

First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.

I meant the political process...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.

Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is

Our starting point should be that Remain lost last time. The polls don't show much change, so I'd make leave the favourites this time round. I think there's a decent chance that referendum 2 would lead to hard Brexit or even no deal.

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.

True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".

Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.

Re your last sentence - Do you want people rioting on the streets

"The gulf between the easy, prosperous, productive Brexit that its voters are impatiently expecting, and the grim, complicated cost of disentangling economies that have been intertwined for decades has poisoned and paralyzed British politics.

The Conservatives’ leaders cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party. And instead of apologizing for misleading voters, Mr. Johnson and the other Brexiteers have doubled down, taking refuge in optimistic slogans and vapid promises, refusing to believe the increasingly agitated evidence from hospitals, airlines, farmers, supermarkets and factories that a hard Brexit will damage them all.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.

Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.

True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".

Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.

Re your last senrtence - Do you want people rioting on the streets

The country can't be held to ransom by people who would riot on the streets.

The Brexit deal versus Remain is the right and responsible choice to put in a referendum. Two defined options, neither of which will cause the sky to fall in, and we can have a sober and fact-based debate to decide what our future course will be.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.

Okaaay...

First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.

How would a No Deal referendum be passed by Parliament?

It already has been, in effect.

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.

Even if it does it wont win. There's a reason Brexiteers are terrified of a 2nd referendum.

They have been found out by enough people to tip the balance next time. It'll still be close, but the other way.

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

not_on_fire said:

Gardenwalker said:

Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

She will if Labour supports the deal

If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.

Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

That would be - courageous.

A smarter move would be to vote this through and let the government tear itself to pieces over something else over the next year. Wellington fell because of Catholic Emanciption, but it was another vote on a minor subject that he actually lost.

Corbyn is not smart, as he is not principled or honest. But many of the PLP are and I think they will be wary of precipitating an election over blocking this.

No they will go for the election. That is their raison d’etre.

The details of what nuance of Brexit they did or didn’t help to bring about will be lost on 99.9% of voters.

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/

The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc

Why hypocritical?

As a consumer you are making a choice

It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself

Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.

Agreed

There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least

Yes, they treated employees who dared question things exceptionally poorly.

I'd also note the way they compartmentalised the company, so people working on the same project could not tell others on the project that they were doing. That's a recipe for disaster, and whilst it may sometimes be necessary because of externalities, was not in that case.

But the worst was the semi-police state they created within the company. A massive security operation around technology that essentially did not exist, but impressed outsiders looking on.

On the legal side, David Boies and Boies Schilller come out very poorly. The sort of people who give lawyers a bad name ...

Sounds like an Allegory for the May government.

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.

DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.

Nick Watt on Newsnight said the latest thinking is that Boris will by-pass parliament and take his case to the country by going back into campaign mode.

Bus tour?

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.

https://twitter.com/anthonyzach/status/1016760787812192257

I would have thought Remain's best chance is somewhere in the fallout of the events that would follow the Brexit extremists' bringing down of the PM right now.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.

Okaaay...

First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.

How would a No Deal referendum be passed by Parliament?

It already has been, in effect.

I agree that it is the default, but that is not the mooted Second Referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rkrkrk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

Remain, or leave with no deal?

I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.

If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.

Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is

Our starting point should be that Remain lost last time. The polls don't show much change, so I'd make leave the favourites this time round. I think there's a decent chance that referendum 2 would lead to hard Brexit or even no deal.

I think a hard Brexit and no deal are the same but yes, we could actually see a vote to leave, no matter how bad it is for us economically, just as a rebellion against the political class

We might also see a Remain vote driven by desire to kick a Government of Leavers. Referendums tend to get that reaction.

rottenborough said:

Even if it does it wont win. There's a reason Brexiteers are terrified of a 2nd referendum.

They have been found out by enough people to tip the balance next time. It'll still be close, but the other way.

As we head to the endgame there will be essentially three possible options:

- Revoke Article 50
- Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement
- No Deal

Over the next three months, my assumption is that those trashing Chequers and arguing for No Deal will drive public opinion not towards the third option but towards the first.