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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For all the machinations of the past few days the betting is still on this Parliament running its full course
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If it is a no deal Brexit, we will have full control of the customs procedures in place for imports, including the right to waive procedures entirely until infrastructure is in place to cope.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779
Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
More importantly, how was the match?
Interesting video, but aren't you underestimating the potential fall in London house prices? Markets usually overshoot before reverting to trend.
Also, surely it is low interest rates that are the cause?. The returns on other forms of savings have become viable only because real interest rates are so poor, and mortgages so affordable.
Possibly covered in thread, but I missed it due to bring at the football match.
As a consumer you are making a choice
It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
I assume you'll be celebrating with sparkling vinegar tonight ?
France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.
It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!
Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.
I don't see why TM or a future Tory leader would particularly want to cling on for the final year, the Brexit transition will likely be done by then and polling may have improved by then.
So he and Boris have chosen their own dead end, a resignation that leads nowhere. It is fascinating that having rebelled against Mrs May’s proposal, the hard Brexiteers don’t now propose to get rid of her. It’s because they appreciate that getting rid of her won’t help them reach their goal.
But Mr Davis has gone one step further. He has laid the logic out in a chain. He realises that there is no pathway to their goal. So he has simply given up.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/david-davis-and-boris-johnson-both-hit-a-brexit-dead-end-cgdcxqnt7
How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.
The FSB clearly did a very good job of telling the more troublesome element of Russian football “fans” to keep their heads down for a few weeks, a friend of mine just got back after following England around the group and said there was no trouble anywhere.
Good luck with getting tickets for the final, whether or not we make it there it will one hell of an experience, especially to be there with your boy.
Insofar as you can tell from watching on telly, there do seem to have been more fans from Central and South America and fewer from Europe than you'd expect.
What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
Perhaps you should delete all your apps, cut yourself off from technology and live as a digital outcast in a cabin in the woods. But short of that, I think focusing on one company is a reasonable start, which will worry their industry peers, raise the issue with lawmakers and hopefully lead to wider change.
Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.
Yeah, I reckon a 2022 election very likely as well.
Bloody Belgians.
The irony is of course that because Germany wasn't invaded it left many Germans thinking they had been sold out rather than beaten, and led to, er, the leaders being overthrown 15 years later.
Lots of poor finishing by the frogs,
It is to be hoped MP's vote in the National interest and not plunge us into a suicidal hard Brexit
She needs three groups on board:
1) A large majority of her backbenchers - which she has;
2) The Labour remainers - a large majority of the PLP, who dislike Corbyn and don't want him in power because they know how big a disaster he would be for the country and for their party. I think this is why Barwell took the very unusual step of briefing Opposition MPs on the proposals. She seems to be trying to reach over the head of Corbyn;
3) The EU. To be blunt they are the ones who will take most persuading and that may be where (as I said the other day) these resignations have helped. Even Barnier now seems to have twigged that May can't just cave in to anything he demands and he has sounded a lot more amiable in the last 48 hours.
Could it work? Well, it requires many stars to align but in the mess we're in with no deal and chaos here and on the continent a real risk we don't have an awful lot to lose.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, this goes right back to David Cameron calling the referendum and then Theresa May triggering Article 50 without bothering to establish what Brexit might actually look like. The whole Brexit process, even as defined by its most ardent supporters, has looked like one of those decades-old project management cartoons where the penultimate frame calls for a miracle. We see the same in the government's ever-shifting position, and even in the lack of immediate response to the Chequers paper because there was nothing to judge it against. The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.
It was a tight tactical game, and will be tough to score from open play against those French.
That would be - courageous.
A smarter move would be to vote this through and let the government tear itself to pieces over something else over the next year. Wellington fell because of Catholic Emanciption, but it was another vote on a minor subject that he actually lost.
Corbyn is not smart, as he is not principled or honest. But many of the PLP are and I think they will be wary of precipitating an election over blocking this.
There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least
Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)
In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.
So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.
The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.
Good to ses Airbus and business yesterday welcoming the moves and in turn businesses EU wide will have seen the way things are heading and will be ramping up pressure on the governments to do a deal to protect their own jobs. TM is to meet all the EU leaders individually and negotiate directly with them.
This last few days have been tumultuous but also have increased the chance of a deal (Barnier said yesterday they were 80% there) and of course there are only two options now, deal or no deal, remain is off the table
Remain, or leave with no deal?
Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.
The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
Germans demand US stop messing with NATO but cant actually fulfil their own commitments and don't want to increase military spending
eitherhttps://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus179140150/Nato-Gipfel-Angela-Merkel-kann-in-Bruessel-nicht-liefern.html
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article179144290/Umfrage-Deutsche-sind-klar-gegen-Erhoehung-von-Militaerausgaben.html
should make for an interesting summit
Edit the tweet made the same point. I didn't read it properly.
[not that I disagree with you]
I am not sure their voters will quite see it that way.
Or to put it another way, they will see Labour siding with the ERG to deliver a hard Brexit.
Now that might suit Corbyn but I think there might be awkward conversations about it elsewhere with sane MPs and candidates.
I also do think there will be a number of Labour MPs sufficiently alarmed at this situation to wave through a deal. There are two groups who will support it:
1) Pragamatists. Their calculation will be otherwise the government splits, falls, they come in and the first thing they have to deal with is economic meltdown caused by no-deal for which they will get the blame.
2) Principled. They will vote because they believe if we can't stay in the EU we must stay as close as possible.
Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is
First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.
I'd also note the way they compartmentalised the company, so people working on the same project could not tell others on the project that they were doing. That's a recipe for disaster, and whilst it may sometimes be necessary because of externalities, was not in that case.
But the worst was the semi-police state they created within the company. A massive security operation around technology that essentially did not exist, but impressed outsiders looking on.
On the legal side, David Boies and Boies Schilller come out very poorly. The sort of people who give lawyers a bad name ...
The Conservatives’ leaders cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party. And instead of apologizing for misleading voters, Mr. Johnson and the other Brexiteers have doubled down, taking refuge in optimistic slogans and vapid promises, refusing to believe the increasingly agitated evidence from hospitals, airlines, farmers, supermarkets and factories that a hard Brexit will damage them all.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html
So we are leaving and the question is on what terms. That would be what a second referendum would be about, and why it would be as pointless and potentially damaging as trying to explain the mechanics of good teaching to an OFSTED inspector.
The Brexit deal versus Remain is the right and responsible choice to put in a referendum. Two defined options, neither of which will cause the sky to fall in, and we can have a sober and fact-based debate to decide what our future course will be.
They have been found out by enough people to tip the balance next time. It'll still be close, but the other way.
The details of what nuance of Brexit they did or didn’t help to bring about will be lost on 99.9% of voters.
She also wants to eclipse David Cameron. If she goes for a referendum as I described, it would be the final act of a long process of cleaning up the political mess he left.
Bus tour?
- Revoke Article 50
- Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement
- No Deal
Over the next three months, my assumption is that those trashing Chequers and arguing for No Deal will drive public opinion not towards the third option but towards the first.