politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold
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That's correct. And in the 1970s, the Italian government did a "one off" tax on all bank accounts in the country above a certain level of 2%.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Archer, during the financial crisis (or just after) I believe Cypriot banks took funds from accounts. Could be wrong, but I think that's what happened.
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I think it'd be 100x easier, and 100x better for consumers.Philip_Thompson said:
How is it any different to GDPR?Jonathan said:
Adding the button is easy. You're right. A two minute job. Hooking that up to make changes into backend systems like SAP, covering all use cases, is never cheap - even for seemingly trivial things.Sandpit said:
They already have a user portal, adding a “cancel subscription” button, with an “are you sure” button after it is no effort at all. They’re deliberately being arseholes in making it as difficult as possible to cancel an arrangement.
The Telegraph last year covered a number of stories about people trying to cancel Sky, that included people closing bank accounts, solicitors’ letters and small claims court cases. People got little or no response until journalists got involved.
Companies tend to like to bear that sort of integration cost for the things that make you money, not the things that cost you money.0 -
The 2017 Corbyn Coalition returning to NOTA......AndyJS said:UKIP plus Greens on 8% compared to 3.6% at GE2017.
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Indeed. last time I checked (a few months ago), there were only eight ferries per week sailing from RoI to the continent, one route of which goes to Spain. By contrast, there are up to six per day from Dublin to Holyhead alone, plus the services to Liverpool, Fishguard, Pembroke etc.Alanbrooke said:
the issue isn't North South in any case. The BBC lunchtime had an analysis of Irelands trade the bulk of which leaves Dublin for Holyhead or Liverpool 60% goes to the UK and 40% on to the channel ports and tunnel. If there is no deal Ireland is totally fucked.williamglenn said:
Read this sentence again. If there is a deal, it cannot be a deal which requires any kind of border.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. It can happen if the either UK or the EU decide they want it. Again the clauses you quote only prevent the act being used to justify a hard border, It does not in any way prevent a hard border if the Government of either side decide they want one.williamglenn said:
It can happen only if there is no deal and another legal basis can be found for it.
create or facilitate border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after exit day which feature physical infrastructure, including border posts, or checks and controls, that did not exist before exit day and are not in accordance with an agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU.
And, of course, those lorries from Ireland would have to go through the EU/UK border *twice*.0 -
Nowhere near the 21% lead that they had just before the last election.RobD said:Is that a gradual Tory Surge (TM) I am seeing in the blue column?
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In Scotland? Must have missed that one... understandable, as I would have probably fainted on the sight of itlogical_song said:
Nowhere near the 21% lead that they had just before the last election.RobD said:Is that a gradual Tory Surge (TM) I am seeing in the blue column?
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Companies have no idea how they're going to do business, British people all over the EU don't know whether they're going to need visas or what will happen to their pensions, and the whole thing is stuck waiting for the 21 people who are supposed to be in charge of the country most affected to get around to having a meeting. No hurry or anything, it's hot weather and the footy's on.TGOHF said:
What like agreeing to not having a border that neither side wants nor will ever build ? Lol.edmundintokyo said:
FFS, this is the most urgent issue the UK has had to deal with since WW2OblitusSumMe said:
Right, I've got it now.williamglenn said:
She wants to go nowhere at a faster pace.OblitusSumMe said:
Didn't May just ask to accelerate the talks?Scott_P said:
The - hopefully - decisive Cabinet meeting at Chequers isn't scheduled until the end of next week. Attempting to speed up negotiations before then is a bit pointless, so a bit cheeky for the EU to ask. They must have known the UK wouldn't have been ready.
But I suppose they wanted to make that obvious because it's absurd for May to ask to accelerate the talks when she isn't ready to do so. If she had the Chequers Cabinet meeting before the EU summit then she could have invited the EU for next week (or this weekend) as a concrete sign of intent.
It's all Kabuki - tune out and enjoy the sun.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯0 -
UKIP only stood in 378 seats, and the Greens in 460. Had they contested all 632 GB ones, they'd probably have had a combined 5.5% or so. Add in a bit of Eurosceptic disillusionment against the Tories (and no immediate cost to a mid-term protest), and a bit of lefty discontent versus Corbyn and the Lib Dems, and a UKIP+Green score of 8 doesn't seem unreasonable.AndyJS said:UKIP plus Greens on 8% compared to 3.6% at GE2017.
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My son is eight, and until recently he spent his time complaining that everything was unfair and the world was against him.williamglenn said:
Donald Trump sounds like my son used to.0 -
if 28.6% > 26% over a 12 month period counts as a surge..RobD said:Is that a gradual Tory Surge (TM) I am seeing in the blue column?
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Come now, the surge is always defined from trough to peak....Theuniondivvie said:
if 28.6% > 26% over a 12 month period counts as a surge..RobD said:Is that a gradual Tory Surge (TM) I am seeing in the blue column?
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This is a decent ranking, but I think it needs debating here...
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/jun/29/all-abbas-uk-singles-ranked0 -
I suspect you are banking on the wrong side as usual.TOPPING said:
Neither side wants and no one will ever build, but one side can threaten it and the other will cave instantly.TGOHF said:
What like agreeing to not having a border that neither side wants nor will ever build ? Lol.edmundintokyo said:
FFS, this is the most urgent issue the UK has had to deal with since WW2OblitusSumMe said:
Right, I've got it now.williamglenn said:
She wants to go nowhere at a faster pace.OblitusSumMe said:
Didn't May just ask to accelerate the talks?Scott_P said:
The - hopefully - decisive Cabinet meeting at Chequers isn't scheduled until the end of next week. Attempting to speed up negotiations before then is a bit pointless, so a bit cheeky for the EU to ask. They must have known the UK wouldn't have been ready.
But I suppose they wanted to make that obvious because it's absurd for May to ask to accelerate the talks when she isn't ready to do so. If she had the Chequers Cabinet meeting before the EU summit then she could have invited the EU for next week (or this weekend) as a concrete sign of intent.
It's all Kabuki - tune out and enjoy the sun.
I'll leave you to figure out which side is which.0 -
It's striking that 30% are satisfied with the Government's performance, 31% think Corbyn is doing well, 35% admire May. There are probably not many of us who agree with all three of these assessments, but between them it means that over 60% of the public feel pretty good about how their party is getting on.david_herdson said:
Feel-good factor post-Panama, mid-heatwave.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems like the Tories have some how managed to squeezed out a consistent small lead now. God knows how.HYUFD said:Mori
Tories 41%
Labour 38%
LDs 7%
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/10126621333713428500 -
Are those well/admire scores exclusive to supporters? Can imagine some Tories thinking Corbyn is doing well.NickPalmer said:
It's striking that 30% are satisfied with the Government's performance, 31% think Corbyn is doing well, 35% admire May. There are probably not many of us who agree with all three of these assessments, but between them it means that over 60% of the public feel pretty good about how their party is getting on.david_herdson said:
Feel-good factor post-Panama, mid-heatwave.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems like the Tories have some how managed to squeezed out a consistent small lead now. God knows how.HYUFD said:Mori
Tories 41%
Labour 38%
LDs 7%
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/10126621333713428500 -
twatRichard_Tyndall said:
I suspect you are banking on the wrong side as usual.TOPPING said:
Neither side wants and no one will ever build, but one side can threaten it and the other will cave instantly.TGOHF said:
What like agreeing to not having a border that neither side wants nor will ever build ? Lol.edmundintokyo said:
FFS, this is the most urgent issue the UK has had to deal with since WW2OblitusSumMe said:
Right, I've got it now.williamglenn said:
She wants to go nowhere at a faster pace.OblitusSumMe said:
Didn't May just ask to accelerate the talks?Scott_P said:
The - hopefully - decisive Cabinet meeting at Chequers isn't scheduled until the end of next week. Attempting to speed up negotiations before then is a bit pointless, so a bit cheeky for the EU to ask. They must have known the UK wouldn't have been ready.
But I suppose they wanted to make that obvious because it's absurd for May to ask to accelerate the talks when she isn't ready to do so. If she had the Chequers Cabinet meeting before the EU summit then she could have invited the EU for next week (or this weekend) as a concrete sign of intent.
It's all Kabuki - tune out and enjoy the sun.
I'll leave you to figure out which side is which.0 -
The tipping point for SNP to make several gains at Westminster is about SNP 40%, SCon 26%, SLab 24%. To seriously reduce the SCon seats, the swing neeeds to be considerable and I believe SCon have squeezed as much of the SLab/committed Unionist support as they are likely to get.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
What strikes me is the relative stability of the parties' numbers currently. Interested to hear the Scottish PB posters' views on this.0
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That's true. It's maybe interesting nonetheless that both parties were declining in the polls until recently.david_herdson said:
UKIP only stood in 378 seats, and the Greens in 460. Had they contested all 632 GB ones, they'd probably have had a combined 5.5% or so. Add in a bit of Eurosceptic disillusionment against the Tories (and no immediate cost to a mid-term protest), and a bit of lefty discontent versus Corbyn and the Lib Dems, and a UKIP+Green score of 8 doesn't seem unreasonable.AndyJS said:UKIP plus Greens on 8% compared to 3.6% at GE2017.
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But how will her Lesbian status impact - given the absence of a father in such pictures?TheScreamingEagles said:
I was doing some research and I was trying to work out why Blair got a boost in late 1999 and the summer of 2000.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, really?
I don't dislike Davidson, but I don't see why having kids means you have to like someone more. Not disputing that a poll boost might follow the media coverage, though.
[Also, I'm not sure 'craven' makes sense in that context].
It coincided with the announcement and the birth of Leo Blair.
There’s going to be a lot of pictures of her with a newborn baby, the media love that stuff.0 -
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-446017980 -
I doubt much. The Scots are a tolerant bunch, unless you're English... jk, of coursejustin124 said:
But how will her Lesbian status impact - given the absence of a father in such pictures?TheScreamingEagles said:
I was doing some research and I was trying to work out why Blair got a boost in late 1999 and the summer of 2000.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, really?
I don't dislike Davidson, but I don't see why having kids means you have to like someone more. Not disputing that a poll boost might follow the media coverage, though.
[Also, I'm not sure 'craven' makes sense in that context].
It coincided with the announcement and the birth of Leo Blair.
There’s going to be a lot of pictures of her with a newborn baby, the media love that stuff. 0 -
I think it's important to make sure that England is out of the World Cup before the discussions take place.edmundintokyo said:
FFS, this is the most urgent issue the UK has had to deal with since WW2 and they're ludicrously behind, why do they need to wait until the end of next week to have a cabinet meeting?OblitusSumMe said:
Right, I've got it now.williamglenn said:
She wants to go nowhere at a faster pace.OblitusSumMe said:
Didn't May just ask to accelerate the talks?Scott_P said:
The - hopefully - decisive Cabinet meeting at Chequers isn't scheduled until the end of next week. Attempting to speed up negotiations before then is a bit pointless, so a bit cheeky for the EU to ask. They must have known the UK wouldn't have been ready.
But I suppose they wanted to make that obvious because it's absurd for May to ask to accelerate the talks when she isn't ready to do so. If she had the Chequers Cabinet meeting before the EU summit then she could have invited the EU for next week (or this weekend) as a concrete sign of intent.0 -
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
What opportunities have you had to deny the SNP or Plaid your vote?justin124 said:
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
It was the induced ecstasy of all those Millennium Dome visitors surely.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was doing some research and I was trying to work out why Blair got a boost in late 1999 and the summer of 2000.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, really?
I don't dislike Davidson, but I don't see why having kids means you have to like someone more. Not disputing that a poll boost might follow the media coverage, though.
[Also, I'm not sure 'craven' makes sense in that context].
It coincided with the announcement and the birth of Leo Blair.
There’s going to be a lot of pictures of her with a newborn baby, the media love that stuff.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: P2 underway.0 -
The Standard's loss - £9.98m - comes after a recorded profit of £2.2m in the previous year, representing a £12m swing into the red.AndyJS said:"Evening Standard to record £10m loss"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44537728
Long term economic plan....0 -
The Tories may be able to pick up a few more seats in Scotland next time such as Ayrshire Central, Perth, Lanark, Edinburgh South West.justin124 said:
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
I’m going to be in real trouble if England go all the way. I just realised that the final is on my wife’s birthday.rcs1000 said:
I think it's important to make sure that England is out of the World Cup before the discussions take place.edmundintokyo said:
FFS, this is the most urgent issue the UK has had to deal with since WW2 and they're ludicrously behind, why do they need to wait until the end of next week to have a cabinet meeting?OblitusSumMe said:
Right, I've got it now.williamglenn said:
She wants to go nowhere at a faster pace.OblitusSumMe said:
Didn't May just ask to accelerate the talks?Scott_P said:
The - hopefully - decisive Cabinet meeting at Chequers isn't scheduled until the end of next week. Attempting to speed up negotiations before then is a bit pointless, so a bit cheeky for the EU to ask. They must have known the UK wouldn't have been ready.
But I suppose they wanted to make that obvious because it's absurd for May to ask to accelerate the talks when she isn't ready to do so. If she had the Chequers Cabinet meeting before the EU summit then she could have invited the EU for next week (or this weekend) as a concrete sign of intent.0 -
A greater impact will be if religious bigots try to make an issue out of her sexuality. And I bet it will garner her sympathy, not the condemnation they want.justin124 said:
But how will her Lesbian status impact - given the absence of a father in such pictures?TheScreamingEagles said:
I was doing some research and I was trying to work out why Blair got a boost in late 1999 and the summer of 2000.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, really?
I don't dislike Davidson, but I don't see why having kids means you have to like someone more. Not disputing that a poll boost might follow the media coverage, though.
[Also, I'm not sure 'craven' makes sense in that context].
It coincided with the announcement and the birth of Leo Blair.
There’s going to be a lot of pictures of her with a newborn baby, the media love that stuff.
Thank f the world has moved on from the ancient, anachronistic views.0 -
Mr. Jessop, one would hope that won't happen.0
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You know the Republic of Ireland is staying in the EU, right?Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-446017980 -
So what on Earth changed at the Standard, did they get a new editor or something?FrancisUrquhart said:
The Standard's loss - £9.98m - comes after a recorded profit of £2.2m in the previous year, representing a £12m swing into the red.AndyJS said:"Evening Standard to record £10m loss"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44537728
Long term economic plan....0 -
That unfunny cartoonist must be bloody expensive.Sandpit said:
So what on Earth changed at the Standard, did they get a new editor or something?FrancisUrquhart said:
The Standard's loss - £9.98m - comes after a recorded profit of £2.2m in the previous year, representing a £12m swing into the red.AndyJS said:"Evening Standard to record £10m loss"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44537728
Long term economic plan....0 -
Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44601798
Seems excessive for a border force...Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44601798
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better than you in all likelihoodedmundintokyo said:
You know the Republic of Ireland is staying in the EU, right?Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44601798
I also know that all the Brexit disaster hype stories atm aren't being reflected in the Irish media. If the UK goes down, Ireland goes with it, so why aren't they making any doomsday plans ?0 -
In most of those seats I would expect Labour to be the main challenger to the SNP - Perth being the exception.AndyJS said:
The Tories may be able to pick up a few more seats in Scotland next time such as Ayrshire Central, Perth, Lanark, Edinburgh South West.justin124 said:
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
Edinburgh SW ( where I live) has seen a significant influx of students in recent years. I'd be surprised if there was a significant swing to SCon ( tactical voting apart).AndyJS said:
The Tories may be able to pick up a few more seats in Scotland next time such as Ayrshire Central, Perth, Lanark, Edinburgh South West.justin124 said:
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
The EU is sticking up for them on the border, and they'll be an English-speaking base in the EU while their largest-competitor English-speaking base in the EU leaves the EU, so it's not obvious why you'd be expecting doomsday.Alanbrooke said:
better than you in all likelihoodedmundintokyo said:
You know the Republic of Ireland is staying in the EU, right?Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44601798
I also know that all the Brexit disaster hype stories atm aren't being reflected in the Irish media. If the UK goes down, Ireland goes with it, so why aren't they making any doomsday plans ?0 -
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Isn't that a bit like asking, is that big yellow thing in the sky making it absolutely blistering hot?Scott_P said:twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1012699773483139072
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don't be ridiculous, Barnier has just offered us a hostage and Ireland will get shafted at the last minute when Merkel needs something for Germany.edmundintokyo said:
The EU is sticking up for them on the border, and they'll be an English-speaking base in the EU while their largest-competitor English-speaking base in the EU leaves the EU, so it's not obvious why you'd be expecting doomsday.Alanbrooke said:
better than you in all likelihoodedmundintokyo said:
You know the Republic of Ireland is staying in the EU, right?Alanbrooke said:
another Brexit disaster
RoI and NI to create 240,000 jobs over next 5 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44601798
I also know that all the Brexit disaster hype stories atm aren't being reflected in the Irish media. If the UK goes down, Ireland goes with it, so why aren't they making any doomsday plans ?
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It was also Alastair Darling's seat. I would expect Labour to recover lost ground there.sarissa said:
Edinburgh SW ( where I live) has seen a significant influx of students in recent years. I'd be surprised if there was a significant swing to SCon ( tactical voting apart).AndyJS said:
The Tories may be able to pick up a few more seats in Scotland next time such as Ayrshire Central, Perth, Lanark, Edinburgh South West.justin124 said:
I strongly disagree with that. I would always vote Tory rather than SNP or Plaid.SandyRentool said:I would be perfectly happy for the SNP to gain all of Labour's Scottish seats if they gained twice as many from the Tories at the same time.
I suppose it is easy for me to say this as I'm not a SLAB MP defending his/her seat!0 -
Going to need some more evidence to back up this ridiculous claim. For starters, it’s still hot at night.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't that a bit like asking, is that big yellow thing in the sky making it absolutely blistering hot?Scott_P said:twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1012699773483139072
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New thread.0
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I believe a bloke called Piers Corbyn can help you out.RobD said:
Going to need some more evidence to back up this ridiculous claim. For starters, it’s still hot at night.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't that a bit like asking, is that big yellow thing in the sky making it absolutely blistering hot?Scott_P said:twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1012699773483139072
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That's my line.TheScreamingEagles said:
The SNP gained Labour's lazy voters.Pulpstar said:The big picture looks like very little change in Scotland for me. Clearly many 2015GE SNP voters just stayed at home in GE17 but the GE17 ones look like they're here to stay from the above.
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The SNP 2010 General Election campaign was utter shit.david_herdson said:"It was, as we are all aware, the upheaval in politics north of the border in the aftermath of the 2014 independence referendum that changed everything"
I'm not sure I agree with that. In some ways, the referendum just jolted Westminster VI into line with Scotland's voting for other bodies. These are the SNP/Lab shares (plus others, where SNP/Lab was third) for the major elections in Scotland from 2005GE onwards (for Scottish Parliament elections (SP), I've used the regional vote; for local elections, I've used first preferences):
2005 GE Lab 39.5 SNP 17.7 (LD 22.6)
2007 LE Lab 28.1 SNP 27.9
2007 SP Lab 29.2 SNP 31.0
2009 EP Lab 20.8 SNP 29.1
2010 GE Lab 42.0 SNP 19.9
2011 SP Lab 26.3 SNP 44.0
2012 LE Lab 31.4 SNP 32.3
2014 EP Lab 25.9 SNP 29.0
2015 GE Lab 24.3 SNP 50.0
2016 SP Lab 19.1 SNP 41.7 (Con 22.9)
2017 LE Lab 20.2 SNP 32.3 (Con 25.3)
2017 GE Lab 27.1 SNP 36.9 (Con 28.6)
So while there was a spike to an unprecedented level for the SNP after the referendum, and while it certainly shifted Westminster voting in a way it had never gone before, it didn't 'change everything'. In particular, the 2011 Holyrood election gave a good foretaste of the 2015 Westminster vote, and looking at the 2005-14 results, it's really the Westminster votes which stand out as exceptional, both with Labour doing so well and the SNP so badly (the contrast between 2009 and 2010 is particularly striking and a measure of how brittle Labour's vote had become).0 -
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Not sure I would have SOS in my top 20. But the Day before you came is my favourite.Nigelb said:This is a decent ranking, but I think it needs debating here...
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/jun/29/all-abbas-uk-singles-ranked0 -
To go non-pc, why should she have a turkey baster in the picture? As Elton John and many other people have shown, two loving parents, whether they are same sex, foster or normal male/female relationship, married or not, or now in a civil partnership, are recommended, but, 1 is more than likely to be acceptable as well.justin124 said:
But how will her Lesbian status impact - given the absence of a father in such pictures?TheScreamingEagles said:
I was doing some research and I was trying to work out why Blair got a boost in late 1999 and the summer of 2000.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, really?
I don't dislike Davidson, but I don't see why having kids means you have to like someone more. Not disputing that a poll boost might follow the media coverage, though.
[Also, I'm not sure 'craven' makes sense in that context].
It coincided with the announcement and the birth of Leo Blair.
There’s going to be a lot of pictures of her with a newborn baby, the media love that stuff.0
