politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year ago BoJo was hot favourite for PM: Now those concerned

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

100,000 turnout is not bad.
Much better than Brexiters could manage, given most of them are morbidly obese.

LOL. The voice of bitter defeat. I am enjoying your pain.

Of course you are.
You’re a depraved non-entity. Sadism is all you have.

Well that and the result he wanted in the biggest vote we have ever had.

Lies and stupidity are often very popular, as we see from history and indeed from light entertainment formats.

Perhaps we should ban democracy and X Factor phone votes?

Another person who doesn’t understand democracy.

To put claims of 100,000 at the march there's approximately a million people from EU countries who live in London:

' Of the 8.88 million people living in London at the time of the most recent UK estimates, 3.32 million (37%) were born outside of the United Kingdom. Of these, approximately a third were born within European Union countries, while the other two thirds were born outside of the European Union. '

http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/london-population/

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

Have the police or anybody not involved in organizing the march, given an estimate of the number of people? Not that is matters that much, I'm just curios.

I do not doubt for a moment that Brexit has coursed serious distress to some people, (my Facebook feed will attest to that) and if I could find ways of given reassurance, condolence or even workable compromise I would.

I don't think there is as wide spreed upset as it may at first appear: Anti Brexiters, are undoubtedly very highly motivated, indaviduales, and i try to respect that. They also include many prominent positions in society: The arch Bishop of Canntabrey, Governor of the Bank of England, Heads of international businesses, celebrates, not to mention politicians, Journalists (and commentators on PB!)

I would suggest that, there tern out to this protest shoes that it is not even close to the wide spread opposition to government policy demonstrated in the 'Stop the War' march, or the anti fox hunting ban march. May be the spirit of marching is not what it was 15 years ago? I don't know but with Facebook I would have thought that this would be easier to organise now.

JosiasJessop said:

Gardenwalker said:

100,000 turnout is not bad.
Much better than Brexiters could manage, given most of them are morbidly obese.

That wasn't a rally.

*This* is a rally:
https://www.rferl.org/a/turkey-presidential-campaign-ince-izmir/29313583.html

(The other day, a rally against Erdogan before the upcoming election. Organisers say 2.5 million people; that seems unlikely, but it's a lot. The next few weeks in Turkey are going to be very interesting - and very worrying)

Erdogan looks to be physically struggling a bit too. At some point events will surely overtake him.

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

My business is consolidating operations in Amsterdam. There will be no PR release, it is just happening.

This is also happening with several clients.

Not with a bang, but with a whimper. The tide of mediocrity comes in slowly.

Thanks DavidL, and all the gang.

On a ferry to Amsterdam from Newcastle as we speak. Daughter finished her Erasmus year in Groningen and needs her stuff brought home.

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

I see John Redwood is implicitly joining in the calls to nationalise Airbus.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1010108010193211393?s=21

Most Tories must be praying that the old Marxist Jezza doesn't fall under a bus. What an even vaguely pro-business Labour leader could do to them now is truly frightening.

In our topsy turvy world we may well have Business backing Jezza and John at the next election!

Vince and Jo maybe, even Brexit will not see business back Marxists like Corbyn and McDonnell

Labour would have to come up with something pretty bad for it to be worse for business than Brexit.

At least Brexit might offer the chance for reduced regulations for business, Corbynism just means higher taxes and more strikes

Regulations are necessary for business to run. In my experience EU regulations are no worse than, and generally rather clearer than regulations outside the EU. Higher taxes and more strikes are undesirable, but Brexit is worse. And my guess is that the cost of bringing a load of regulatory work back to the UK from the EU will exceed the cost of EU membership, so taxes will be going up anyway.

The Tories raised £25 million at the last general election, £1.5 million was their biggest donation from JCB.

Labour raised £9.5 million over £1 million of which came from the Unite Union. The LDs raised £4 million and the largest individual donation of £300 000 to the LDs from an entrepreneur exceeded the largest individual donation of £60 000 that Labour got. Large corporations and businesspeople won't touch Corbyn Labour with a barge pole whereas they were queuing up to open their chequebooks to Blair and Brown and New Labour. At the 2005 general election New Labour had over £13 million of donations

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/24/uk-political-parties-received-record-40m-of-donations-before-election

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2006/jul/18/labour.uk1

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

100,000 turnout is not bad.
Much better than Brexiters could manage, given most of them are morbidly obese.

LOL. The voice of bitter defeat. I am enjoying your pain.

Of course you are.
You’re a depraved non-entity. Sadism is all you have.

And Brexit. I have Brexit. And so do you! LOL.

Mexico won the football gold at the 2012 Olympics.

How many of that squad in the present team ?

OldKingCole said:

AnneJGP said:

AndyJS said:

houndtang said:

BBC Parliament should be compulsory viewing for Remainers demanding another referendum.

Similarly with Ireland. IMHO, the best way forward for those two communities would be to find a way of living together in mutual tolerance & respect. If a large majority of NI and RoI wanted to come together, that would be a cause of rejoicing, surely, not a reason for mourning the break-up of the UK.

Good evening, everybody.

That hasn’t happened for over a century, since Partition, which was precisely because the immigrant community, or to be more accurate, it’s descendants refused to consider living in a society they considered anethema.
I suppose that just possible, now that RoI isn’t quite the theocracy it was under De Valera, that the next generation of Protestants might be prepared to consider some form of federation.

And yes I know De Valera’s long dead, but Irish memories, on both sides, tend to be long.

Ignoring Brexit for a moment I do hope that at some point in the not too distant future there is a majority in favour of reunification. As you say Eire is transformed politically and socially from what it was a few decades ago and I would hope that the Irish Government would be able to come up with the sorts of guarantees that would reassure most of the Protestant population they had nothing to fear.

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

I see John Redwood is implicitly joining in the calls to nationalise Airbus.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1010108010193211393?s=21

Most Tories must be praying that the old Marxist Jezza doesn't fall under a bus. What an even vaguely pro-business Labour leader could do to them now is truly frightening.

In our topsy turvy world we may well have Business backing Jezza and John at the next election!

Vince and Jo maybe, even Brexit will not see business back Marxists like Corbyn and McDonnell

Labour would have to come up with something pretty bad for it to be worse for business than Brexit.

At least Brexit might offer the chance for reduced regulations for business, Corbynism just means higher taxes and more strikes

Agreed! I which that the the government, the brexit negotiators or better still the Prime Minister were steadily announcing which bits of EU regulations will go the day we leave, but instead Her first/early statements that I remember where that all EU regulations would be transferred in to UK law so there would be no change, with the small caveat that we may get rid of some latter.

I do think it is worth noting that the UK regulatory althoratys (and government) would typically interpret and in force the rules in the most draconian way possible, especially compared to nations like the Netherlands.

I think there is/was a clash of cultures, in the UK less rules but tightly unforced, Europe rules for lots of things but only in-force where required. the UK in the EU meant we got the worst of both woulds!!! and its silly to blames the EU for this.

If we leave but only get rid of a token amount of the regulations the we risk being in the same disadvantageous position for a protracted period of time. (that could get a lot worse is Corben becomes PM)

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

True but pre-Brexit under Osborne the OBR was overestimating the public finances. Under Brown the public finances were consistently and often dramatically overestimated.

When was the last time our economy was consistently underestimated?

Not sure. Have the establishment lost a referendum before?

Gardenwalker said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

100,000 turnout is not bad.
Much better than Brexiters could manage, given most of them are morbidly obese.

LOL. The voice of bitter defeat. I am enjoying your pain.

Of course you are.
You’re a depraved non-entity. Sadism is all you have.

Well that and the result he wanted in the biggest vote we have ever had.

Lies and stupidity are often very popular, as we see from history and indeed from light entertainment formats.

Perhaps we should ban democracy and X Factor phone votes?

Another person who doesn’t understand democracy.

I seem to be getting a constant stream of object lessons in "not understanding democracy" -from Remainers who want another roll of the Referendum dice.

Stark_Dawning said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

Sadly, 'the underlying strength of our economy' can be proved a mirage or vanish into dust. Never put too much faith in it politically. Gordon and his cheerleaders where similarly vainglorious all those years ago.

The economic record is no less staggering. Enthusiasts are beginning to talk of a British miracle, as the UK notches up low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates, accompanied by high growth - all the envy of the G7 industrialised nations. While previous Labour governments were ousted amid economic disarray, this one has weathered the last five years better than most of Europe and even the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/may/01/uk.fiveyearsoflabour

True but our outperformance at that time was based on debt, both public (on and off the books) and private. Now it is based on us having strength in services and IT which are growing much more rapidly than goods. Things could still go wrong, there is a lot of problems needing dealt with, but I am optimistic.

BigRich said:

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

I see John Redwood is implicitly joining in the calls to nationalise Airbus.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1010108010193211393?s=21

Most Tories must be praying that the old Marxist Jezza doesn't fall under a bus. What an even vaguely pro-business Labour leader could do to them now is truly frightening.

In our topsy turvy world we may well have Business backing Jezza and John at the next election!

Vince and Jo maybe, even Brexit will not see business back Marxists like Corbyn and McDonnell

Labour would have to come up with something pretty bad for it to be worse for business than Brexit.

At least Brexit might offer the chance for reduced regulations for business, Corbynism just means higher taxes and more strikes

Agreed! I which that the the government, the brexit negotiators or better still the Prime Minister were steadily announcing which bits of EU regulations will go the day we leave, but instead Her first/early statements that I remember where that all EU regulations would be transferred in to UK law so there would be no change, with the small caveat that we may get rid of some latter.

I do think it is worth noting that the UK regulatory althoratys (and government) would typically interpret and in force the rules in the most draconian way possible, especially compared to nations like the Netherlands.

I think there is/was a clash of cultures, in the UK less rules but tightly unforced, Europe rules for lots of things but only in-force where required. the UK in the EU meant we got the worst of both woulds!!! and its silly to blames the EU for this.

If we leave but only get rid of a token amount of the regulations the we risk being in the same disadvantageous position for a protracted period of time. (that could get a lot worse is Corben becomes PM)

I do wonder if European governments were aware of how much more stringently regulations can be applied in this country and pushed for harder rules knowing they would be enforced less in their own countries.

BigRich said:

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

I see John Redwood is implicitly joining in the calls to nationalise Airbus.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1010108010193211393?s=21

Most Tories must be praying that the old Marxist Jezza doesn't fall under a bus. What an even vaguely pro-business Labour leader could do to them now is truly frightening.

In our topsy turvy world we may well have Business backing Jezza and John at the next election!

Vince and Jo maybe, even Brexit will not see business back Marxists like Corbyn and McDonnell

Labour would have to come up with something pretty bad for it to be worse for business than Brexit.

At least Brexit might offer the chance for reduced regulations for business, Corbynism just means higher taxes and more strikes

Agreed! I which that the the government, the brexit negotiators or better still the Prime Minister were steadily announcing which bits of EU regulations will go the day we leave, but instead Her first/early statements that I remember where that all EU regulations would be transferred in to UK law so there would be no change, with the small caveat that we may get rid of some latter.

I do think it is worth noting that the UK regulatory althoratys (and government) would typically interpret and in force the rules in the most draconian way possible, especially compared to nations like the Netherlands.

I think there is/was a clash of cultures, in the UK less rules but tightly unforced, Europe rules for lots of things but only in-force where required. the UK in the EU meant we got the worst of both woulds!!! and its silly to blames the EU for this.

If we leave but only get rid of a token amount of the regulations the we risk being in the same disadvantageous position for a protracted period of time. (that could get a lot worse is Corben becomes PM)

Good points though I think its sensible to blame the UK's membership of the EU for it. Our Common Law legal system is very different to their Napoleonic one and trying to mash the two together hasn't worked.

Its sensible to maintain the same rules from day 1 but retain the option to very it from day 2 onwards.

Interesting view from Vernon Bogdanor on the Parliament channel.

He pointed out that it was up to a parliament with a Remain majority to implement Leave, because electoral sovereignty over-rules parliamentary sovereignty.

But then we all knew that, didn't we?

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

True but pre-Brexit under Osborne the OBR was overestimating the public finances. Under Brown the public finances were consistently and often dramatically overestimated.

When was the last time our economy was consistently underestimated?

When was the last time that everyone involved in compiling the statistics was utterly opposed to the direction the government was taking, and determined to see every dataset in the most negative light possible?

I can't say that in 2015 the civil service was that opposed?

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

True but pre-Brexit under Osborne the OBR was overestimating the public finances. Under Brown the public finances were consistently and often dramatically overestimated.

When was the last time our economy was consistently underestimated?

If I remember right, the last time that GDP growth and government tax revenue exceeded predictions was in 97, 98 and I think 99. At the time Brown had just become canceler, but had promised to stick to the conservative planes, and not introduce anything new, and he largely kept that promise to start with.

At the moment the government is obsessing about Brexit and stuck without of mayoralty in HofC and therefore doing less than normal in terms of new Law regulations, NEW spending taxis.

In both cases relative regulatory stability, meant privet secter planes can come to florition as planed and 'the would works', things get better! everybody winns!

Less government meddling = People do better!

Controversial, I know, but this is PB

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

Hardly surprising when the forecasts now come from the economic establishment convinced to the marrow of their bones that Brexit would cause an immediate downturn, rather than a CoE who just wants more room to play with.

another_richard said:

Mexico won the football gold at the 2012 Olympics.

How many of that squad in the present team ?

To answer my own question there seems to be about seven players from the Mexico 2012 squad in the 2018 squad.

maaarsh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

Hardly surprising when the forecasts now come from the economic establishment convinced to the marrow of their bones that Brexit would cause an immediate downturn, rather than a CoE who just wants more room to play with.

Goes to show that the establishment are wrong though. Who could have forecast that?

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

Sadly, 'the underlying strength of our economy' can be proved a mirage or vanish into dust. Never put too much faith in it politically. Gordon and his cheerleaders where similarly vainglorious all those years ago.

The economic record is no less staggering. Enthusiasts are beginning to talk of a British miracle, as the UK notches up low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates, accompanied by high growth - all the envy of the G7 industrialised nations. While previous Labour governments were ousted amid economic disarray, this one has weathered the last five years better than most of Europe and even the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/may/01/uk.fiveyearsoflabour

If Labour had continued on the path it took in their first term they wouldn't have been too bad. Sadly from 2002 the spending taps were turned onto max and never turned off.

+1.

If it weren’t for an annual £50bn of tax credits, we’d be running a surplus now and be £500bn better off.

TheJezziah said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

wow. just wow. this is the cult in action:

ttps://twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1010545006497722368

It’s finally dawning on the cult that Jeremy Corbyn can think of many better places to be today, than be at an anti-Brexit march in London.

The cult will convince themselves some nonsense that it was a scheduling issue and his trip to Jordan was books months ago yadda yadda yadda. AS surprising as boris having a meeting abroad when the Heathrow vote comes around.

I don't imagine he deliberately planned it for the same day (though he could have) but people motivated enough to go out marching for the day (or a few hours anyway) would probably mostly know that Corbyn was not going to be there.

It's seems very unlikely they were singing it because they were genuinely surprised he wasn't there...

There are a few options:
*) He deliberately planned the trip to avoid the rally.
*) He was incompetent and did not realise they were on the same day.
*) He did realise, and judged the Palestinians are more important than his own countrymen.

Take your pick.

maaarsh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

maaarsh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

Hardly surprising when the forecasts now come from the economic establishment convinced to the marrow of their bones that Brexit would cause an immediate downturn, rather than a CoE who just wants more room to play with.

Goes to show that the establishment are wrong though. Who could have forecast that?

We're just lucky to have a BoE Governor with the foresight and courage to save our economy with a mighty 0.25% rate cut. The sigh of relief that morning as he averted disaster will stay with me forever.

... or it could be that the signal helped trigger the large drop in sterling which saved the economy.

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

I think people will go a decade without acknowledging underperformance connected with Brexit. A situation like Italy is likely IMO. The country sort of works but it's tiring for young people who scrabble for insecure and inconvenient jobs. Not great.

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

In fairness we didn’t have the OBR seeking to reclaim the description of the dismal science for most of your adult life. But yes, the underlying strength of our economy is being consistently underestimated

Sadly, 'the underlying strength of our economy' can be proved a mirage or vanish into dust. Never put too much faith in it politically. Gordon and his cheerleaders where similarly vainglorious all those years ago.

The economic record is no less staggering. Enthusiasts are beginning to talk of a British miracle, as the UK notches up low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates, accompanied by high growth - all the envy of the G7 industrialised nations. While previous Labour governments were ousted amid economic disarray, this one has weathered the last five years better than most of Europe and even the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/may/01/uk.fiveyearsoflabour

If Labour had continued on the path it took in their first term they wouldn't have been too bad. Sadly from 2002 the spending taps were turned onto max and never turned off.

I largely agree with that, But if I recall speeding started going up in slightly in 99 and more in 2000 just before the 01 election and then increasing more after the election so that we went form a budgetary surplussed to a £40 Billion deficit in 2005 (when there was another election)

Now I oppose Keynesian economics and 'Stimulus' spending, but the revers boosting government borrowing is just as bad if not worse!!!

Which is largely why I don't support the '£20 billion' extra for the NHS.
(Unless it is accompanied by a cut to other speeding elsewhere by government, may be not locking people in prison for selling pot for starter)

rottenborough said:

wow. just wow. this is the cult in action:

https://twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1010545006497722368

Corbyn is on the pro-Brexit counter march?

TheJezziah said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheJezziah said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

wow. just wow. this is the cult in action:

ttps://twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1010545006497722368

It’s finally dawning on the cult that Jeremy Corbyn can think of many better places to be today, than be at an anti-Brexit march in London.

The cult will convince themselves some nonsense that it was a scheduling issue and his trip to Jordan was books months ago yadda yadda yadda. AS surprising as boris having a meeting abroad when the Heathrow vote comes around.

I don't imagine he deliberately planned it for the same day (though he could have) but people motivated enough to go out marching for the day (or a few hours anyway) would probably mostly know that Corbyn was not going to be there.

It's seems very unlikely they were singing it because they were genuinely surprised he wasn't there...

There are a few options:
*) He deliberately planned the trip to avoid the rally.
*) He was incompetent and did not realise they were on the same day.
*) He did realise, and judged the Palestinians are more important than his own countrymen.

Take your pick.

I don't think he planned on going on the march regardless of whether he was doing something or not, so he was free to do other things. Even things like taking time out for the evil Palestinians....

Indeed so. What most of the Faithful still don’t get is that he actively chooses to be somewhere else today. They think he should be front and centre of opposing Brexit, and don’t understand why he doesn’t care about the same things they do.

logical_song said:

maaarsh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

maaarsh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

For the first time in about 20+ years the public finances are consistently coming in better than officially forecast, I can't recall that happening year after year in my adult lifetime.

Hardly surprising when the forecasts now come from the economic establishment convinced to the marrow of their bones that Brexit would cause an immediate downturn, rather than a CoE who just wants more room to play with.

Goes to show that the establishment are wrong though. Who could have forecast that?

We're just lucky to have a BoE Governor with the foresight and courage to save our economy with a mighty 0.25% rate cut. The sigh of relief that morning as he averted disaster will stay with me forever.

... or it could be that the signal helped trigger the large drop in sterling which saved the economy.

There was a 30% fall in sterling in 2008/9 together with a 5% cut in interest rates and a massive increase in government borrowing but that didn't stop the biggest recession since the 1930s.

A recession that the Treasury didn't predict in March 2008.

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The way that British politics is going, business is indeed f**ked. With the anti-business extreme Brexiteers on the one side (who prudently are investing elsewhere to avoid the consequences of their advocated actions) and the anti-capitalist Corbynites on the other side, long term economic underperformance looks almost inevitable.

So if the U.K. outperforms the EZ over the next 5 or 10 years will you admit that you were wrong? Or will the argument be that we would have outperformed them even more?

I think our growth exceeding theirs is more likely than not. But then I think that would have been the case if we had voted to remain too.

I think people will go a decade without acknowledging underperformance connected with Brexit. A situation like Italy is likely IMO. The country sort of works but it's tiring for young people who scrabble for insecure and inconvenient jobs. Not great.

If the government decided to regulate the economy like the Danish and Swedes with very few rules we will have an economy like the Danes and Swedes, if the government tryes to run the economy like the Greeks with big interventions, lots of rules and lots of things owned by the government we will have an economy like Greeks, both of these economy are in the EU but have very diffident outcomes become most of the governing comes from the national level not the EU level. Leaving the EU, on its own will have only the tineast of impact ether way. I supported/support leaving become we could (in theory) totally open up to foren trade and deregulation like Singapore, (or Litchinstine) and be as rich as Singapore, sadly I think there is a diminishing hope that Teresa May will do that.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Still, at least they didn’t fall in behind xenophobic lies in order to win a referendum.

You mean like the xenophobic lies about a jungle of foreigners in Kent if we voted to Leave?

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

F1: rain arrived too late for qualifying, but hit the F2 race afterwards. Ah well.

Got a small number of betting thoughts but the markets aren't up yet. Will wait a bit, but might post the article tomorrow instead if it takes too long.

Barnesian said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

You're sad

Nah. Like most normal people I’ve been out enjoying myself today.

In my case, enjoying a fortnum & masons picnic hamper and a bottle of wine at Royal Ascot, along with 70,000 other people.

TheJezziah said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheJezziah said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheJezziah said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

wow. just wow. this is the cult in action:

ttps://twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1010545006497722368

It’s finally dawning on the cult that Jeremy Corbyn can think of many better places to be today, than be at an anti-Brexit march in London.

The cult will convince themselves some nonsense that it was a scheduling issue and his trip to Jordan was books months ago yadda yadda yadda. AS surprising as boris having a meeting abroad when the Heathrow vote comes around.

I don't imagine he deliberately planned it for the same day (though he could have) but people motivated enough to go out marching for the day (or a few hours anyway) would probably mostly know that Corbyn was not going to be there.

It's seems very unlikely they were singing it because they were genuinely surprised he wasn't there...

There are a few options:
*) He deliberately planned the trip to avoid the rally.
*) He was incompetent and did not realise they were on the same day.
*) He did realise, and judged the Palestinians are more important than his own countrymen.

Take your pick.

I don't think he planned on going on the march regardless of whether he was doing something or not, so he was free to do other things. Even things like taking time out for the evil Palestinians....

Now, now. I've never said (and would not say) that the Palestinians are evil. Nice bit of projection there.

And why don't *you* think he planned to go on the march?

Because he doesn't support a people's vote.

Putting aside the question of whether we would win it or lose and end up with an even harder/worse Brexit...

We have to respect the vote in some way, if the Conservatives spend years messing it up and public opinion changes quite a bit then he may go for or be pressured into the idea. For all the complaints about him being Stalinist votes have gone against him (less often than for) he's pushed democracy in the party and would respect pressure from members which there would be in the circumstances that public opinion shifted.

Because he wants too leave, because (amongst other reasons) the EU gets in the way of changes he would like to bring in. Yet many (most?) of his supporters were remainers.

In this, he is being a typical charlatan politician.

Still, I'm looking forward to him meeting with the Israeli government soon ...

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Remember all those lectures dished out to Remainers after the referendum about how they were all elitist and didn’t understand the people of this country? Think of those while enjoying your hamper at Ascot and calling fellow citizens a disgrace for having a different opinion.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

Actually, I'm unsure that follows. It's perfectly possible to like/love a place, but not like the direction that place has taken politically or socially. For instance, if an extremist government took power in the UK, I doubt I would *love* the country any less, and probably wouldn't move except if things got really bad.

I don't know why Alastair has a place in Hungary, or his attachment to the place (and it's really no business of ours). But he *might* despair of what's happening there as much as we do, but still feel an attachment to the place.

(Or not. I don't want to speak for Alastair, but I'm just pointing out your comment doesn't necessarily follow.)

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

Actually, I'm unsure that follows. It's perfectly possible to like/love a place, but not like the direction that place has taken politically or socially. For instance, if an extremist government took power in the UK, I doubt I would *love* the country any less, and probably wouldn't move except if things got really bad.

I don't know why Alastair has a place in Hungary, or his attachment to the place (and it's really no business of ours). But he *might* despair of what's happening there as much as we do, but still feel an attachment to the place.

(Or not. I don't want to speak for Alastair, but I'm just pointing out your comment doesn't necessarily follow.)

I wasn't being serious. Just having a dig at Alastair and his obsession with blaming Brexit on xenophobia and demanding that everyone else agree with him. It is more than a little sad.

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

And has just banned “Billy Elliot” for being “gay propaganda”....

Billy Elliot is filth, like The Teletubbies.

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

And has just banned “Billy Elliot” for being “gay propaganda”....

The wife heard something on the radio about the Hay Festival having an offshoot festival in Hungary. It went very well, and the Hungarians were happily planning for holding it again. Until they asked "but next year, can we have it without all the Jews and the homosexuals?"

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: rain arrived too late for qualifying, but hit the F2 race afterwards. Ah well.

Got a small number of betting thoughts but the markets aren't up yet. Will wait a bit, but might post the article tomorrow instead if it takes too long.

The F2 race drizzle was very interesting, shook up the field completely as drivers went off, some incorrectly stopped for wet tyres etc. There’s a thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow around the 4pm (local) start time, we could well end up with a Singapore 2017 scenario.

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Please don't use personal insults towards people who you disagree with.

I may support BREXIT, but I also respect peoples right to protest, which is all they are doing.

You and I may disagree with the Remain supporters on here, but they are not Sad, or Naive or Losers. They are people who see things differently to us, and tha'ts fine we both what this to be a free country.

I hope that hope that one day this division will be behind us and they change their mind and see that BREXIT has been a big success, (I hope) perhaps you agree with that. But insulted are a counter productive means of perspiration I know, think of Hillary Basket of deplorables comment.

Mr. Sandpit, cheers for that forecast. The race is near Marseilles, right?

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Remember all those lectures dished out to Remainers after the referendum about how they were all elitist and didn’t understand the people of this country? Think of those while enjoying your hamper at Ascot and calling fellow citizens a disgrace for having a different opinion.

Nah. I didn’t think of Brexit once whilst enjoying my hamper.

And, for what it’s worth, the average punter at Royal Ascot was far more representative of the general population than you’ll ever know.

BigRich said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Please don't use personal insults towards people who you disagree with.

I may support BREXIT, but I also respect peoples right to protest, which is all they are doing.

You and I may disagree with the Remain supporters on here, but they are not Sad, or Naive or Losers. They are people who see things differently to us, and tha'ts fine we both what this to be a free country.

I hope that hope that one day this division will be behind us and they change their mind and see that BREXIT has been a big success, (I hope) perhaps you agree with that. But insulted are a counter productive means of perspiration I know, think of Hillary Basket of deplorables comment.

They can protest all they like. And I am free to call them sad naive losers. It’s fun.

If they want to end the division they can start by stopping trying to frustrate the result, and start helping to shape an inclusive one instead.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, cheers for that forecast. The race is near Marseilles, right?

Yes, about 30km E of Marseilles, on the edge of a mountainous region. Rather like Spa, it can sometimes have its own weather system.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Nope, just marching for an inclusive internationalist future for Britain. Good luck to them. Femi is convincing me that we really do need a Peoples Vote on the deal.

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

Actually, I'm unsure that follows. It's perfectly possible to like/love a place, but not like the direction that place has taken politically or socially. For instance, if an extremist government took power in the UK, I doubt I would *love* the country any less, and probably wouldn't move except if things got really bad.

I don't know why Alastair has a place in Hungary, or his attachment to the place (and it's really no business of ours). But he *might* despair of what's happening there as much as we do, but still feel an attachment to the place.

(Or not. I don't want to speak for Alastair, but I'm just pointing out your comment doesn't necessarily follow.)

It is certainly true, it was when I was living as an expat in NZ, and thinking about staying for ever*, that I decided that despite a mean spirited government with destructive policies, I cared enough to return and campaign for a better Britain. For a while under New Labour we had it.

*still not sure I made the right decision.

Like you ever needed “Femi” to convince you to make a decision you’d already made.

Pathetic.

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

What a bunch of sad naive losers on the pro-EU march in London.

Willing to march for a foreign anti-democratic unaccountable and dismissive bureaucracy, rather than to enhance the democracy and freedom of themselves and their own country.

Disgraceful.

Nope, just marching for an inclusive internationalist future for Britain. Good luck to them. Femi is convincing me that we really do need a Peoples Vote on the deal.

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks was happy to have these xenophobic lies on his side. Beware the jungle of migrants if leave wins. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12146463/David-Cameron-says-Brexit-would-bring-a-migrant-Jungle-to-Kent-what-are-the-facts.html

I have often think the man doth protest too much. Remember he was happy to spend much of his time, when not in the UK, living in a country that has turned out to be filled with those he would describe as racists and xenophobes who have elected a Government that is considered extremist by the rest of the EU.

Actually, I'm unsure that follows. It's perfectly possible to like/love a place, but not like the direction that place has taken politically or socially. For instance, if an extremist government took power in the UK, I doubt I would *love* the country any less, and probably wouldn't move except if things got really bad.

I don't know why Alastair has a place in Hungary, or his attachment to the place (and it's really no business of ours). But he *might* despair of what's happening there as much as we do, but still feel an attachment to the place.

(Or not. I don't want to speak for Alastair, but I'm just pointing out your comment doesn't necessarily follow.)

It is certainly true, it was when I was living as an expat in NZ, and thinking about staying for ever*, that I decided that despite a mean spirited government with destructive policies, I cared enough to return and campaign for a better Britain. For a while under New Labour we had it.

*still not sure I made the right decision.

Like you ever needed “Femi” to convince you to make a decision you’d already made.

Pathetic.

Nope. I have opposed a second vote consistently for the last 2 years on PB.

I challenge you to cite me saying anything different.