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The new Gove created GCSEs have effectively awarded the top grade 9 to only half those who used to get an A* and there is now an A* at A Level too. I expect the started first will soon be along shortly and the government is already talking about more rigid grade boundaries for degreesjustin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
He’s heard that Mueller is involved...williamglenn said:Not sure what Trump is trying to say here.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1010486772541816834
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Müller0 -
I'm sure you are right. iirc the article said such data was not being collected before 1990.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
As a 1985 graduate, there were a tiny handful of 1st in my course that year. Can't remember exactly how many out of a cohort of 50, but something like 3 or 4.
And generally, around the campus, the only students thought likely to get a first worked like maniacs, lived like monks and were never seen doing much else.0 -
Circular reasoning. Once we are outside the EU, by your reasoning, WTO rules will be appropriate.williamglenn said:
They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
So WTO terms are good enough?williamglenn said:
All of them. It's called the WTO.Philip_Thompson said:
So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?williamglenn said:
They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall tradePhilip_Thompson said:
Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?williamglenn said:
The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.Philip_Thompson said:
So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.FF43 said:
The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.Philip_Thompson said:
No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.FF43 said:
Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.
Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22
Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?
Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.0 -
The establishment GOP clearly loathes Trump (think Osborne's contempt for May and Brexit×10), the Bushes refused to vote for him as most likely did Romney and McCain and former Speaker Boehner has said at the moment there is no Republican Party just a Trump Party. Unfortunately for them most Trump voters will not muster up much enthusiasm in November to vote for McConnell or Ryan's Congressional Party in the way they will turnout for Trump in 2020Nigelb said:
Unusual for retiring Congressmen to be making the same argument, though...HYUFD said:
Of the last 10 midterms in a President's first term, the President's party has lost seats in 9 of them and control of at least one chamber of Congress in 4 of them so he is really just going with the tide which will be anti GOP in November anyway and Trump or no Trump that would likely still be the caseNigelb said:Another Republican says vote Democrat in the midterms:
http://thehill.com/homenews/393728-george-will-argues-for-voting-against-the-gop-in-midterms
On its own, of little significance, but it’s just possible the ‘vote against Trump’s enablers’ call will get som traction.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-wasnt-trump-enough-in-the-age-of-trump-so-i-lost/2018/06/22/56949d5a-7653-11e8-9780-b1dd6a09b549_story.html
The Republican Party is going through an identity crisis. We need to decide who we are. I
I have all the merit badges and hard-fought votes to demonstrate my allegiance to those ideals. But voters in this election did not value this as much as they did fidelity to our president. In fact, on election night, my opponent proclaimed in her victory speech that “we are the party of Donald J. Trump.”...0 -
I recall that in 1975 there was utter astonishment at my Russell Group university when someone was awarded a First in History . It had not happened in the previous ten years!rottenborough said:
I'm sure you are right. iirc the article said such data was not being collected before 1990.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
As a 1985 graduate, there were a tiny handful of 1st in my course that year. Can't remember exactly how many out of a cohort of 50, but something like 3 or 4.
And generally, around the campus, the only students thought likely to get a first worked like maniacs, lived like monks and were never seen doing much else.0 -
Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.Richard_Tyndall said:
Circular reasoning. Once we are outside the EU, by your reasoning, WTO rules will be appropriate.williamglenn said:
They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
So WTO terms are good enough?williamglenn said:
All of them. It's called the WTO.Philip_Thompson said:
So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?williamglenn said:
They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall tradePhilip_Thompson said:
Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?williamglenn said:
The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.Philip_Thompson said:
So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.FF43 said:
The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.Philip_Thompson said:
No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.FF43 said:
Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.
Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22
Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?
Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.0 -
Further on uni grades.
Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.
He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.
To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.
He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.
What days they were!!!0 -
F1: written almost all the pre-qualifying stuff (which has a surprising quantity of news), but waiting for the markets to wake up. Unlikely I'll be betting, but I'll see if any numbers look wrong.0
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It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Well even in those days it was pretty difficult to fail an Arts or Social Science degree course - though quite a few Thirds and Pass degrees were awarded.rottenborough said:Further on uni grades.
Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.
He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.
To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.
He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.
What days they were!!!0 -
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:
They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
So WTO terms are good enough?williamglenn said:
All of them. It's called the WTO.Philip_Thompson said:
So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?williamglenn said:
They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall tradePhilip_Thompson said:
Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?williamglenn said:
The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.Philip_Thompson said:
So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.FF43 said:
The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.Philip_Thompson said:
No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.FF43 said:
Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.
Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22
Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?
Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.0 -
Small bets at long odds I think. Williams to make Q3, Alonso for pole, that sort of thing...Morris_Dancer said:F1: written almost all the pre-qualifying stuff (which has a surprising quantity of news), but waiting for the markets to wake up. Unlikely I'll be betting, but I'll see if any numbers look wrong.
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AndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
You had to pass an entrance exam and interview though, before getting those offers.
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Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Great stuff from Belgium0
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What pain?williamglenn said:Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?0 -
Yes most of the 2.1s and below become the business leaders, celebrities, Cabinet members and City lawyers and bankers of tomorrow, the 1sts are more likely to become academicsrottenborough said:Further on uni grades.
Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.
He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.
To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.
He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.
What days they were!!!0 -
You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.Philip_Thompson said:
What pain?williamglenn said:Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?0 -
To be fair, it’s not terrible at all (with the exception of the unnecessary chicane on the main straight). The cars/tyres are the problem this year - as Canada showed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, it does seem remarkable that with so many configurations they managed to pick a bad one.
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Indeed - but A level grades awarded pre-1989 under the system of Relative Marking cannot seriously be compared with those given under the Absolute Marking system which replaced it. A friend of mine got into Oxford in 1973 to study Modern Languages having obtained A Level grades of 2 Bs and a D - though in those days he had to pass the Entrance Exam.AndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.
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And also, what you have to trade is more important. We can overcome any adverse effects of Brexit by becoming more productive, more creative and and just generally better at getting things done. Sadly the cheerleaders for Brexit don't inspire me with confidence that they are going to be any good at doing any of those things.williamglenn said:
They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall tradePhilip_Thompson said:
Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?williamglenn said:
The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.Philip_Thompson said:
So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.FF43 said:
The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.Philip_Thompson said:
No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.FF43 said:
Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.
Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22
Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?
Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.0 -
No you're being obtuse.williamglenn said:
You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.Philip_Thompson said:
What pain?williamglenn said:Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?
Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.0 -
The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.HYUFD said:
Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.
Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?0 -
The recent trend towards their customers paying more for the experience, has led those same customers to have greater expectations of what comes out the other end of their courses?AndyJS said:
The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.HYUFD said:
Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Indeed and Hinds is pushing universities to curb grade inflation as the government has done for GCSEs and A LevelsAndyJS said:
The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.HYUFD said:
Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-445483220 -
David Miliband was the son of a very prominent Politics Professor.AndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
In my part of the country three As were obligatory to get into Oxbridge.0 -
Betting Post
F1: pre-qualifying ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/france-pre-qualifying-2018.html0 -
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
There is no London independence party like Sinn Fein or the SNP and certainly not one with seats in the London Assembly though no doubt some hard Brexiteers would be fine getting rid of London tooBenpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
There is also probably a pretty strong argument to justify graduates from several decades back seeking to have their own degrees regraded to reflect the massive inflation that has occured. People who emerged with 2.2s back in the 60s and 70s could be very confident of a good 2.1 today!AndyJS said:
The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.HYUFD said:
Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Anyway, got to be off. Qualifying starts at 3pm.0
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Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
But if a student passed the Entrance Exam and interview he/she only needed to get 2 Es to be admitted!another_richard said:
David Miliband was the son of a very prominent Politics Professor.AndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/1010047133100199936
In my part of the country three As were obligatory to get into Oxbridge.0 -
I think they understand it very well indeed.AndyJS said:
The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.HYUFD said:
Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those tooAndyJS said:
It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.justin124 said:
A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.rottenborough said:On grade inflation:
https://twitter.com/DrLeeJones/status/10100471331001999360 -
Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.
Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?
0 -
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.HYUFD said:
Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Today's Tesco Strawberry score is an increase to ten:
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Cambridgeshire
Herefordshire
Kent
But the most interesting thing was the appearance of cherries from Kent.
So that's British strawberries, raspberries, blackberries, blueberries and now cherries available.
Are there any other types of fruit I should look out for ?0 -
I didn't claim we can't do better than WTO terms with non-European nations, but Brexit certainly doesn't break down any barriers with them.Philip_Thompson said:
No you're being obtuse.williamglenn said:
You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.Philip_Thompson said:
What pain?williamglenn said:Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?
Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.
If you imagined a utopia with no trade barriers globally whatsoever, it would look like a global version of the EU.0 -
Done my betting on this one already.Sandpit said:
Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.
Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?
Backed Hamilton earlier in the week as a punt on the new engines, and layed the bet after FP2. I’ll be a contented spectator.
0 -
O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.0
-
There might be support to kick out Scouseland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Though the fact Unionist parties won 63% of the vote in the general election after Brexit in Scotland and the DUP has won both post Brexit elections in NI does not guarantee that in the same way the SNP winning over 50% of the vote in Scotland in 2017 post Brexit and Sinn Fein winning most NI Assembly seats and most MPs in 2017 would have doneBenpointer said:
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.HYUFD said:
Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
0 -
That’s a good call. He’s odds-on for pole and to win still (1.7 and 1.8 respectively), which if it’s going to be raining for the next two days is definitely too long.Nigelb said:
Done my betting on this one already.Sandpit said:
Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.
Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.
Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?
Backed Hamilton earlier in the week as a punt on the new engines, and layed the bet after FP2. I’ll be a contented spectator.0 -
Belgium giving a lesson in how to convert chances.0
-
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
0 -
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.0 -
The idea that the public finances would be a £17bn deficit only this year in the counter-factual seems implausible on the face of it.Andy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.0 -
No it would be more like a global version of the TPP. It wouldn't have a global Parliament setting global social laws.williamglenn said:
I didn't claim we can't do better than WTO terms with non-European nations, but Brexit certainly doesn't break down any barriers with them.Philip_Thompson said:
No you're being obtuse.williamglenn said:
You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.Philip_Thompson said:
What pain?williamglenn said:Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?
Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.
If you imagined a utopia with no trade barriers globally whatsoever, it would look like a global version of the EU.0 -
Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.0
-
Benpointer said:
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.0 -
Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?Benpointer said:
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.HYUFD said:
Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
+1Pulpstar said:Benpointer said:
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.0 -
Possibly. It has certainly added additional pressures. On the plus side, if it does not, therefore, lead to the UK's breakup, then having gone through those pressures may make the union stronger, since if this didn't break it what will. In much the same way if Remain had won, I do not doubt that acceptance of further EU integration would have become easier. And if we ever rejoin (assuming they let us) I would argue we would need to be in all the way, Euro and everything, since if you're in, you're in.Benpointer said:
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
However, in both scenarios there would need to be due care taken to strengthen said unions taking account of the pressures the near leaving exacerbated, which is by no means a certainty.
I would say Northern Ireland seems more immediately dangerous in terms of a break away - there are are lot of seemingly intractable issues, SF have been trying to reinvent themselves to be more cuddly over the past 10 years, and the EU will be exerting immense pressure to help Ireland in a settlement with the UK which might lead, intentionally or not, to a situation which leads to a breakaway sooner than expected.
Scotland remains, though, the more likely in the medium to long term. The SNP remain strong, the outcome of the negotiations seem like they could throw up many issues which have the potential to convert people, and while unionist parties did well in the last elections things have been so up and down there nothing is guaranteed.
Good old Wales though.0 -
Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.DavidL said:Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.
0 -
4-1 now. This is the team England squeezed past with an injury time winner. I agree their defence could be better but they are scary going forward.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.DavidL said:Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.
0 -
I heard Major speak at a private dinner at the time. He clearly had a lot of affection for “Helmut” who wanted to “anchor East Germany in western Europe” and none at all for “Mitterrand” “who “just wants a seat on the Bundesbank”0
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Which was the opposite of what was predicted to happen upon a Leave vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?Benpointer said:
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.HYUFD said:
Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.0 -
Well they are missing a world class defender in Kompany at the moment. Tbh probably best they win today, they'll rest Kompany in the final match and probably Lukaku also. The worst result for England from this match would have been a win for TunisiaDavidL said:
4-1 now. This is the team England squeezed past with an injury time winner. I agree their defence could be better but they are scary going forward.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.DavidL said:Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.
0 -
Like the big fall in unemployment/surge in employment.another_richard said:
Which was the opposite of what was predicted to happen upon a Leave vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?Benpointer said:
My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.HYUFD said:
Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tellPhilip_Thompson said:
He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?HYUFD said:
Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and WalesMarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.williamglenn said:They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.
Like the big fall in our deficit?
It's almost as if the fearful predictions were wrong.0 -
Indeed.Pulpstar said:Benpointer said:
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"0 -
New thread. And I am first.0
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Why ? It's reasonable to update your assumptions and hypotheses as more information becomes known, surely. In any case, John Springford is talking about costs that have already occurred against the counterfactuals, not costs he projects to occur. 2.1% GDP cost since Brexit is in the consensus. IIRC Mark Carney had a similar figure. This other expert challenges Springford's figures and claims a cost of only 1%, but he's at the optimistic end of opinion.Pulpstar said:
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
My personal prediction is that people will put up with a long period of underperformance without noticing it. An Italy situation beckons for the UK.
https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/10104677608649318400 -
And this is why I think the pragmatic, sensible, British compromise should be to leave the EU, but to negotiate membership of the Single Market and Customs Union. We would be out of the political federal state structures of the EU and back in the modern version of the Common Market we voted to stay in.David Herdson said:...the increasingly stark choice of membership of a club it didn’t really want to be part of, or leaving a club it didn’t really want to be outside.
0 -
Hang on - is the analysis really that it is ALREADY costing us £440m/week to the public finances?Andy_Cooke said:
Indeed.Pulpstar said:Benpointer said:
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"
0 -
It is that we're 2.1% of GDP below where we should have been (and where a "virtual UK", composed of a blend of other countries, which tracked our pre-Brexit growth pattern closely) has ended up - with a 0.5% of GDP standard deviation. This leads to lower tax take, to the tune of about £440 million per week (or, in my preferred 2sd error margins), between £230 million and £650 million per week.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Hang on - is the analysis really that it is ALREADY costing us £440m/week to the public finances?Andy_Cooke said:
Indeed.Pulpstar said:Benpointer said:
You put a hex on them!Pulpstar said:
Tunisia are playing wellBenpointer said:O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more soAndy_Cooke said:
I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.RobD said:
I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...Pulpstar said:
That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.RobD said:
Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?AlastairMeeks said:
Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"0 -
If Maastricht is the root of antiEU sentiment, then why don't we join the EEA? We already had the four freedoms in place pre Maastricht. I think the article really misses the point. What has done for the EU is the expansion to the East and free movement. That together with the press blaming everything on immigrants creates a perfect storm of ignorance, and the UK is procrastinating over how to commit economic suicide.0
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The Ant-Brexit March was impressive. It was the largest one since the referendum. Not much sign that the issue is settled.0
This discussion has been closed.