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Disappointing result from Pitsea SE from my point of view but looks like Labour had good GOTV tonight
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10099224113519452160 -
What a convoluted question. If they had asked do you want a second referendum on Brexit I bet the result would have been different.williamglenn said:
"When the negotiations are complete, to what extent would you support or oppose holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal?"kle4 said:
Did their question on a referendum on the final deal clarify if that would include a 'reject deal and remain' option?williamglenn said:
I've come around on thinking we need a referendum on the deal, but what the question would be is unclear.
I am, however, quite surprised that soft and hard brexit are so close, and even how close no deal being good is to bad.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/GMB-Final-Tables.pdf
We get very different results from pollsters on the issue depending on the wording.
And of course what would be the question on the ballot paper? Deal or no deal or deal or remain or something else?0 -
They should say whoever hosts the EU parliament also gets the migration centre, that should help cut down on MEPs travel costsAndyJS said:"EU admits no African country has agreed to host migration centre"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/21/eu-admits-no-african-country-has-agreed-to-host-migration-centre0 -
Every Brexit amendment has passed so farBenpointer said:
You spotted the 'if' in your answer did you?HYUFD said:
Nope, all UK law comes from Westminster as Parliamentary Sovereignty is the basis of the entire UK constitution and Westminster can do whatever it likes so if Westminster passes a law to create a hard border and customs border with the Republic of Ireland tomorrow as that is the only way to ensure the Brexit it has already legislated for it can do precisely thatwilliamglenn said:
It's enshrined in UK law that we cannot create a customs border with Ireland as a result of Brexit, so good luck with that.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its two largest export markets, post Brexit UK and Trump's USA to slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
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Given the extra tariffs Trump is already slapping on the EU with more likely to come to be frank almost any deal with the USA will doBenpointer said:
Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.HYUFD said:
Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at allFoxy said:
WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
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Lib Dem gain from UKIP in West Somerset.0
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How did UKIP win the seat last time around if those percentages are correct?HYUFD said:
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Very close in Pitsea SE though it was just 16% turnout so kicking myself a bit now I did not go over to help this evening but my car was having its MOT todayHYUFD said:Disappointing result from Pitsea SE from my point of view but looks like Labour had good GOTV tonight
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1009922411351945216
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10099250754900336650 -
What a shocking thought but I think you're right. If it wasn't for Corbyn we wouldn't have Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
They've been hoist by their own petard since GE2015Sean_F said:
Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.kle4 said:
Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?williamglenn said:Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.
It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.
Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.0 -
So that's what taking back control has come to then: 'almost any deal with the USA will do'?HYUFD said:
Given the extra tariffs Trump is already slapping on the EU with more likely to come to be frank almost any deal with the USA will doBenpointer said:
Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.HYUFD said:
Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at allFoxy said:
WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
You just don't get it do you? Trump is not going to do a deal with us.0 -
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It is a fallacy to say that all Labour voters in North and Yorkshire are Brexiters. OK, they may not be 75% Remainers, but more than 50% will still be. The Opposition there [ mostly Tories and ex-UKIP ] are Brexiters and many do not vote Labour anymore.
The idea that tens of Labour seats are vulnerable is b___s___! Yes, very marginal seats could be.0 -
Trump has made clear he WILL do a deal with us and wants it done 'very quickly' after BrexitBenpointer said:
So that's what taking back control has come to then: 'almost any deal with the USA will do'?HYUFD said:
Given the extra tariffs Trump is already slapping on the EU with more likely to come to be frank almost any deal with the USA will doBenpointer said:
Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.HYUFD said:
Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at allFoxy said:
WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
You just don't get it do you? Trump is not going to do a deal with us.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4678472/Trump-promises-powerful-post-Brexit-deal.html
Given the EU are starting to make clear they have no interest in doing a deal with us despite our being their biggest export destination a deal with the USA will do nicely, especially if we avoid the new tariffs Trump is slapping on goods from the EU0 -
It's a two-member ward but each party only stood one candidate (I believe in deference to the incumbent independent, to avoid splitting their own vote).rcs1000 said:
Roger Thomas C 576 26.2%
Adrian Behan UKIP 487 22.2%
Andy Lewis Lab 422 19.2%
Ian Melhuish Ind 405 18.4%
Venetia Moore Grn 306 13.9%
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2015/322/#ward111670 -
And it is only 8 very marginal Labour seats the Tories need for a majority!surby said:It is a fallacy to say that all Labour voters in North and Yorkshire are Brexiters. OK, they may not be 75% Remainers, but more than 50% will still be. The Opposition there [ mostly Tories and ex-UKIP ] are Brexiters and many do not vote Labour anymore.
The idea that tens of Labour seats are vulnerable is b___s___! Yes, very marginal seats could be.
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Bad luck for the Tories in Pitsea SE, they fall short by 8 votes.0
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This delusion will go the same way as 'they need us more than we need them'.HYUFD said:
Trump has made clear he WILL do a deal with us and wants it done 'very quickly' after BrexitBenpointer said:
So that's what taking back control has come to then: 'almost any deal with the USA will do'?HYUFD said:
Given the extra tariffs Trump is already slapping on the EU with more likely to come to be frank almost any deal with the USA will doBenpointer said:
Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.HYUFD said:
Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at allFoxy said:
WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
You just don't get it do you? Trump is not going to do a deal with us.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4678472/Trump-promises-powerful-post-Brexit-deal.html
Given the EU are starting to make clear they have no interest in doing a deal with us despite our being their biggest export destination a deal with the USA will do nicely, especially if we avoid the new tariffs Trump is slapping on goods from the EU0 -
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Without the 2015 Conservative majority we don't get Corbyn as Labour leader.Roger said:
What a shocking thought but I think you're right. If it wasn't for Corbyn we wouldn't have Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
They've been hoist by their own petard since GE2015Sean_F said:
Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.kle4 said:
Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?williamglenn said:Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.
It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.
Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.
Without the SNP surge we don't get a 2015 Conservative majority.
And we can track things back further to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2007
47 SNP MSPs vs 46 SLAB MSPs
It was that close.0 -
That's a 90% white ward in Basildon electing a black candidate, which it probably wouldn't have done only a few years ago.HYUFD said:0 -
I am feeling extremely guilty now, I was there at the weekend but did not go tonight, just needed 9 more houses knocked up. Never mind, the Tory candidate Yetunde was excellent and I am sure will win a seat eventuallyAndyJS said:Bad luck for the Tories in Pitsea SE, they fall short by 8 votes.
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As previously noted both Labour and the Conservatives put up candidates of West African heritage in Basildon.HYUFD said:
I am feeling extremely guilty now, I was there at the weekend but did not go tonight, just needed 9 more houses knocked up. Never mind, the Tory candidate Yetunde was excellent and I am sure will win a seat eventuallyAndyJS said:Bad luck for the Tories in Pitsea SE, they fall short by 8 votes.
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Damning stuff from Airbus.0
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We voted to regain sovereignty and control immigration, not declare war on the EU, we wanted a trade deal with the EU, if they prefer tariffs then so be itBenpointer said:
This delusion will go the same way as 'they need us more than we need them'.HYUFD said:
Trump has made clear he WILL do a deal with us and wants it done 'very quickly' after BrexitBenpointer said:
So that's what taking back control has come to then: 'almost any deal with the USA will do'?HYUFD said:
Given the extra tariffs Trump is already slapping on the EU with more likely to come to be frank almost any deal with the USA will doBenpointer said:
Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.HYUFD said:
Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at allFoxy said:
WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.HYUFD said:
If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be itNigelb said:
EU preparing for a no deal departure, with Selmayr put in charge:TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
You just don't get it do you? Trump is not going to do a deal with us.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4678472/Trump-promises-powerful-post-Brexit-deal.html
Given the EU are starting to make clear they have no interest in doing a deal with us despite our being their biggest export destination a deal with the USA will do nicely, especially if we avoid the new tariffs Trump is slapping on goods from the EU
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Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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I believe you are rightAndyJS said:0 -
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): Remember back to your early teachings. "All who gain power are afraid to lose it." Even the LEAVERS.Benpointer said:
TSE: The LEAVERS use their power for good.
Darth Gideon: Good is a point of view, Anakin, er, I mean TSE. The LEAVERS and the REMAINERS are similar in almost every way, including their quest for greater power.
TSE: The REMAINERS rely on their passion for their strength. They think inward, only about themselves.
Darth Gideon: And the LEAVERS don't?
TSE: The LEAVERS are selfless... they only care about others.
Darth Gideon: [looking a little frustrated] Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Smithson "the Wise"?
TSE: No.
Darth Gideon: I thought not. It's not a story the LibDems would tell you. It's a Blogging legend. Darth Smithson was a Daft Lord of the Sith who lived many years ago. He was so powerful and so wise that he could use the Force to influence the midichlorians to create... AV threads. He had such a knowledge of the Daft Side that he could even keep the ones he cared about from dying from boredom on Thursday Nights.
TSE: He could do that? He could actually save people from boring themselves to death?
Darth Gideon: The Daft Side of the Force is a pathway to many policy platforms some consider to be unelectable.
TSE: What happened to him?
Darth Gideon: He became so powerful... the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his apprentice everything he knew, and then one night, his apprentice wiped his servers' hard drives while he slept. It's ironic that he could save others from obscurity, but not himself.
TSE: Is it possible to learn this power?
Darth Gideon: Not from a LibDem...
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Yes and I expect both will be in the Council in due courseslade said:
As previously noted both Labour and the Conservatives put up candidates of West African heritage in Basildon.HYUFD said:
I am feeling extremely guilty now, I was there at the weekend but did not go tonight, just needed 9 more houses knocked up. Never mind, the Tory candidate Yetunde was excellent and I am sure will win a seat eventuallyAndyJS said:Bad luck for the Tories in Pitsea SE, they fall short by 8 votes.
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Astonishing result in South Northamtonshire - Lib Dem gain in a seat the Conservatives have won unopposed since 2001.0
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Thurrock has become a very popular destination for African people in the last 10 years and some of them are probably moving to neighbouring areas like Basildon.HYUFD said:
I believe you are rightAndyJS said:0 -
Yes, my manager is of Nigerian heritage and lives in Thurrock and presents an African music radio showAndyJS said:
Thurrock has become a very popular destination for African people in the last 10 years and some of them are probably moving to neighbouring areas like Basildon.HYUFD said:
I believe you are rightAndyJS said:0 -
The Andrea Leadsom effect.slade said:Astonishing result in South Northamtonshire - Lib Dem gain in a seat the Conservatives have won unopposed since 2001.
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They will simply execute their contingency plans. If you expect business to rescue Brexit you’re in for a rude awakening.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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Was the only seat the Tories got 40k in I thinkwilliamglenn said:
The Andrea Leadsom effect.slade said:Astonishing result in South Northamtonshire - Lib Dem gain in a seat the Conservatives have won unopposed since 2001.
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I don't expect business to 'rescue' Brexit, 17 million people voted for Brexit to regain sovereignty and control immigration not to be 'rescued' by big business and of course most of the businesses in this country are small businesses which are more sympathetic to Brexit than large corporations like Airbuswilliamglenn said:
They will simply execute their contingency plans. If you expect business to rescue Brexit you’re in for a rude awakening.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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what has happened to priti patels complaint to EC about remain overspendingkle4 said:
And as we know from GEs, if a side breached spending rules, it invalidates everything entirely.David_Evershed said:BBC reporting Leave campaign guilty
The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.
An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.
"The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.
"The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."
One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.
Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.
"If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."
That said, if rules are broken there should be punishment.0 -
Yes, small businesses that sell to Airbus or sell to employees of Airbus.HYUFD said:
I don't expect business to 'rescue' Brexit, 17 million people voted for Brexit to regain sovereignty and control immigration not to be 'rescued' by big business and of course most of the businesses in this country are small businesses which are more sympathetic to Brexit than large corporations like Airbuswilliamglenn said:
They will simply execute their contingency plans. If you expect business to rescue Brexit you’re in for a rude awakening.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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The flaw in the thinking is you can vote remain think Brexit is/was a bad idea and still think it should happen in some form because of the referendum.
I'm not sure a majority of members or labour voters think we should ignore the result of the referendum.
I think Brexit was a bad idea and I voted remain but I don't think Labour should oppose Brexit.
Also the problem with the great David Miliband is, he is not so great, if he couldn't even win a Labour leadership election then he wasn't going to win a general election. The Tories would have still swept the Lib Dems seats and I don't see what David would do to stop the SNP rise to power. I don't see him improving on his brother.
Fast forward to the referendum and David as opposition leader (if he took over from Ed say) it would have gone differently although I'm not sure if it would have worked out better, possibly even worse.
You would have had him up with Cameron campaigning to remain in, which I think would have gone really well for the Leave campaign, up against the same tired old types leaders we've had for the last 20+ years Leave would have looked even more like time for a change. Also I think he would have campaigned in a much more the EU is 10/10 way rather than Corbyn's 7/10, which if you have doubts about the EU is less convincing.
The only thing David does differently IMO is suffer worse defeats, in both elections and the referendum. He's the political equivalent of a young footballer who has a purple patch of form and fans still talk about him being a talent years later when he has long since been revealed to be distinctly average.0 -
The vast majority of small businesses in this country do not sell to Airbus nor to employees of AirbusJonathanD said:
Yes, small businesses that sell to Airbus or sell to employees of Airbus.HYUFD said:
I don't expect business to 'rescue' Brexit, 17 million people voted for Brexit to regain sovereignty and control immigration not to be 'rescued' by big business and of course most of the businesses in this country are small businesses which are more sympathetic to Brexit than large corporations like Airbuswilliamglenn said:
They will simply execute their contingency plans. If you expect business to rescue Brexit you’re in for a rude awakening.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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And where is Airbus HQ? Toulouse, Franceralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.0 -
No deal Airbus is bust ion 2 weeks.williamglenn said:
They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.0 -
I don't think that's what it says.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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I was maybe a little bit strong, but it is a message to both sides be sensible.rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's what it says.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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They say the transition is too short. Perhaps the EU could offer a 'sensible' extension for another 3 years as a vassal state?ralphmalph said:
I was maybe a little bit strong, but it is a message to both sides be sensible.rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's what it says.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
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I think it's a message to both; it explicitly talks about the economic consequences in the UK, but it also implies that it's own business will suffer from interruption to its supply chain.rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's what it says.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
No deal hurts everyone, I'd have presumed they'd spent the last 2 years making contingency plans0 -
That number came from your arse drawer, I think.ralphmalph said:
No deal Airbus is bust ion 2 weeks.williamglenn said:
They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.0 -
Given the absolutely fuckuppery of the last two years, why would you assume that?asjohnstone said:I'd have presumed they'd spent the last 2 years making contingency plans
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They can not. As opposed to cars the safety regs are much more complicated and also the products are much more complex. A fuels system for cars versus a fuels system for a plane with 4 jets.asjohnstone said:
I think it's a message to both; it explicitly talks about the economic consequences in the UK, but it also implies that it's own business will suffer from interruption to its supply chain.rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's what it says.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
No deal hurts everyone, I'd have presumed they'd spent the last 2 years making contingency plans
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Have a think ask intelligent questions, I will answer if you questions are intelligent.viewcode said:
That number came from your arse drawer, I think.ralphmalph said:
No deal Airbus is bust ion 2 weeks.williamglenn said:
They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.0 -
I wasn't asking a question, I was making a statement.ralphmalph said:
Have a think ask intelligent questions, I will answer if you questions are intelligent.viewcode said:
That number came from your arse drawer, I think.ralphmalph said:
No deal Airbus is bust ion 2 weeks.williamglenn said:
They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.0 -
Just to close the thread the papers are reporting what the Airbus employee said in his speech.
No deal means
"Because almost all the wings for the company’s airliners are made in the UK, this could cause production at Airbus plants around the world to be halted. "
Bankrupt.0 -
You don't have the ability to close threads. Why do you think you did?ralphmalph said:...Just to close the thread...
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Airbus would not go bankrupt if it couldn't get wings. To put in context, it has €8bn of cash on hand, plus another €2bn of marketable securities, and its customers owe it €5bn.ralphmalph said:Just to close the thread the papers are reporting what the Airbus employee said in his speech.
No deal means
"Because almost all the wings for the company’s airliners are made in the UK, this could cause production at Airbus plants around the world to be halted. "
Bankrupt.
It would be a major financial blow, though, and it would need to put its other factories on short work schedules, probably have to raise financing at a expensive rate, and then attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year. It would probably also see some customer cancellations as planes would not be able to be delivered as quickly as planned. (Although as Airbus has close to a TEN YEAR backlog on the A320 family, and Boeing is SEVEN years for the 737 series, I doubt there would be many people who would cancel an order expected in three years to go to the back of the queue with Boeing.)
Edit to add: Airbus also has a thriving airplane maintenance business that would continue to be a cashcow for the company, which would cushion the blow somewhat.0 -
The tailplanes are made in Spain. The construction techniques and skillsets are the same for wings as tailplanes, since tailplanes are just smaller wings (or wings are bigger tailplanes, if you see what I mean). So there are no conceptual problems, altho there are logistic problems a'plenty.rcs1000 said:...attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year...
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I guess they could probably get another factory running at 50% capacity in a year, and at 100% in two. They'd have some pissed off customers, and probably lose €10bn or so in foregone profit, but they wouldn't go bust.viewcode said:
The tailplanes are made in Spain. The construction techniques and skillsets are the same for wings as tailplanes, since tailplanes are just smaller wings (or wings are bigger tailplanes, if you see what I mean). So there are no conceptual problems, altho there are logistic problems a'plenty.rcs1000 said:...attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year...
Of course, this would have a knock on effect on a number of other businesses: there's Airbus's supply chain in the UK and the EU, and of course, Rolls Royce would be affected as Airbus is about 60% of their commercial jet sales, against 40% for Boeing.0 -
Rolls-Royce have enough problems with the Trent 1000 at the moment, and God knows what'll happen if General Electric's GE9X takes off (metaphorically).rcs1000 said:
I guess they could probably get another factory running at 50% capacity in a year, and at 100% in two. They'd have some pissed off customers, and probably lose €10bn or so in foregone profit, but they wouldn't go bust.viewcode said:
The tailplanes are made in Spain. The construction techniques and skillsets are the same for wings as tailplanes, since tailplanes are just smaller wings (or wings are bigger tailplanes, if you see what I mean). So there are no conceptual problems, altho there are logistic problems a'plenty.rcs1000 said:...attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year...
Of course, this would have a knock on effect on a number of other businesses: there's Airbus's supply chain in the UK and the EU, and of course, Rolls Royce would be affected as Airbus is about 60% of their commercial jet sales, against 40% for Boeing.0 -
I'd assume Airbus has a smarter management team than HMGviewcode said:
Given the absolutely fuckuppery of the last two years, why would you assume that?asjohnstone said:I'd have presumed they'd spent the last 2 years making contingency plans
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IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.0
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I'm unsure how the MPs section went but it was the Union section that won it for Ed. From listening to Stephen Bush after the event a few MPs voting for David would have made the difference. I don't think he would have done brilliantly in the other elections or referendum because he couldn't even win the contest that should have been easy for him. What chance would he have in much tougher challenges?AndyJS said:IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.
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It's a different audience, what appeals to Labour membership doesn't always scale out to the wider publicTheJezziah said:
I'm unsure how the MPs section went but it was the Union section that won it for Ed. From listening to Stephen Bush after the event a few MPs voting for David would have made the difference. I don't think he would have done brilliantly in the other elections or referendum because he couldn't even win the contest that should have been easy for him. What chance would he have in much tougher challenges?AndyJS said:IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.
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O/T
The number of non-Hispanic whites in the United States has declined for the first time in the history of the country according to new data:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/06/21/white-population-aging-rapidly-in-us-dying-faster-than-babies-are-born-data-show.html0 -
He wasn't beaten because of some particulars in policy that would have sold well to the wider public but went down badly with the Labour electorate, he failed to win the leadership election because he just isn't that brilliant.asjohnstone said:
It's a different audience, what appeals to Labour membership doesn't always scale out to the wider publicTheJezziah said:
I'm unsure how the MPs section went but it was the Union section that won it for Ed. From listening to Stephen Bush after the event a few MPs voting for David would have made the difference. I don't think he would have done brilliantly in the other elections or referendum because he couldn't even win the contest that should have been easy for him. What chance would he have in much tougher challenges?AndyJS said:IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.
How someone who can't even win the Labour leadership somehow turns around either the 2015 election or the EU referendum or even more of a stretch both I don't know but I can't help but feel it is wishful thinking.
A politician capable of doing the things David Miliband would have done according to some would have won that leadership race, it wasn't some incredibly tough contest with the voters all opposed to him ideologically it was an open door he couldn't walk through.
This doesn't make him terrible, but a winner, which is what he would be if as said he single handedly changed these hypothetical results with him as Labour leader, would have won.0 -
It’s worth remembering that David Miliband did actually win the membership vote and would have been leader under the system that saw Corbyn win.TheJezziah said:
He wasn't beaten because of some particulars in policy that would have sold well to the wider public but went down badly with the Labour electorate, he failed to win the leadership election because he just isn't that brilliant.asjohnstone said:
It's a different audience, what appeals to Labour membership doesn't always scale out to the wider publicTheJezziah said:
I'm unsure how the MPs section went but it was the Union section that won it for Ed. From listening to Stephen Bush after the event a few MPs voting for David would have made the difference. I don't think he would have done brilliantly in the other elections or referendum because he couldn't even win the contest that should have been easy for him. What chance would he have in much tougher challenges?AndyJS said:IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.
How someone who can't even win the Labour leadership somehow turns around either the 2015 election or the EU referendum or even more of a stretch both I don't know but I can't help but feel it is wishful thinking.
A politician capable of doing the things David Miliband would have done according to some would have won that leadership race, it wasn't some incredibly tough contest with the voters all opposed to him ideologically it was an open door he couldn't walk through.
This doesn't make him terrible, but a winner, which is what he would be if as said he single handedly changed these hypothetical results with him as Labour leader, would have won.
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Extraordinary, isn’t it? The Airbus announcement is the inevitable consequence of a No Deal Brexit, or any Brexit that does not ensure existing supply chains remain viable. And what applies to Airbus applies to countless other manufacturing businesses as well. This has been very clear from the moment Mrs May drew her red lines.williamglenn said:
They say it threatens Airbus' future in the UK, not Airbus' future full stop.ralphmalph said:
Airbus says they go bust with no deal. This is not a message to the UK govt it is a message to the EU.williamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
The level of denial from various people in response to this story is palpable.
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As Andy mentioned it a few hours (or a few posts ago) I'd like to think most people would remember at this point...
It still doesn't quite explain how this hypothetical election and/or referendum winning machine failed with the one real contest he did actually face and in more favourable circumstances then the hypothetical ones it is said he would have done better in. I feel it has much more basis in wishful thinking rather than rational analysis.0 -
Random thought - the Guardian article on Airbus mentions them stockpiling stuff in case they get disruption at Brexit. I wonder how much of this is going on: Plausibly you get a load of extra economic activity in the run-up to Brexit as people bring production forward in case of a car crash. Then even if May does BINO and nothing changes in practice, everything slows down when Brexit comes while people work off the stockpiles they created for the zombie apocalypse that never came.0
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Yep - Airbus and others will have big risk management operations in place that will have been planning for the worse case for a while now.edmundintokyo said:Random thought - the Guardian article on Airbus mentions them stockpiling stuff in case they get disruption at Brexit. I wonder how much of this is going on: Plausibly you get a load of extra economic activity in the run-up to Brexit as people bring production forward in case of a car crash. Then even if May does BINO and nothing changes in practice, everything slows down when Brexit comes while people work off the stockpiles they created for the zombie apocalypse that never came.
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In any event, that wasn’t what Airbus were saying at all. Rather that a no deal Brexit would cause significant, and very expensive production delays - and that the long term future of production in the UK would be up for question.rcs1000 said:
Airbus would not go bankrupt if it couldn't get wings. To put in context, it has €8bn of cash on hand, plus another €2bn of marketable securities, and its customers owe it €5bn.ralphmalph said:Just to close the thread the papers are reporting what the Airbus employee said in his speech.
No deal means
"Because almost all the wings for the company’s airliners are made in the UK, this could cause production at Airbus plants around the world to be halted. "
Bankrupt.
It would be a major financial blow, though, and it would need to put its other factories on short work schedules, probably have to raise financing at a expensive rate, and then attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year. It would probably also see some customer cancellations as planes would not be able to be delivered as quickly as planned. (Although as Airbus has close to a TEN YEAR backlog on the A320 family, and Boeing is SEVEN years for the 737 series, I doubt there would be many people who would cancel an order expected in three years to go to the back of the queue with Boeing.)
Edit to add: Airbus also has a thriving airplane maintenance business that would continue to be a cashcow for the company, which would cushion the blow somewhat.
The idea that they would simply stop building wings here is just silly. What would undoubtedly happen would be immediate planning for second sourcing, and long term planning for shifting production elsewhere. The next generation of wings would probably not be built here.
Were we to lose the business, we would not get it back.
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David Miliband is Labour's Michael Portillo, he would not have beaten Cameron in 2015 even had he beaten Ed Miliband just as Portillo would not have beaten Blair in 2005 even had he beaten IDS.TheJezziah said:
He wasn't beaten because of some particulars in policy that would have sold well to the wider public but went down badly with the Labour electorate, he failed to win the leadership election because he just isn't that brilliant.asjohnstone said:
It's a different audience, what appeals to Labour membership doesn't always scale out to the wider publicTheJezziah said:
I'm unsure how the MPs section went but it was the Union section that won it for Ed. From listening to Stephen Bush after the event a few MPs voting for David would have made the difference. I don't think he would have done brilliantly in the other elections or referendum because he couldn't even win the contest that should have been easy for him. What chance would he have in much tougher challenges?AndyJS said:IIRC David Miliband won the most votes from members in 2010. He only lost because of the other segments of the then electoral college.
How someone who can't even win the Labour leadership somehow turns around either the 2015 election or the EU referendum or even more of a stretch both I don't know but I can't help but feel it is wishful thinking.
A politician capable of doing the things David Miliband would have done according to some would have won that leadership race, it wasn't some incredibly tough contest with the voters all opposed to him ideologically it was an open door he couldn't walk through.
This doesn't make him terrible, but a winner, which is what he would be if as said he single handedly changed these hypothetical results with him as Labour leader, would have won.
However Portillo may have identified the shape of the next Tory PM 9 years later in his doomed 2001 leadership bid ie more socially liberal and in tune with the modern world, just as David Miliband may have identified the next Labour PM as being more economically centrist and internationalist if Corbyn loses again.
Perhaps Chuka Umunna is David Cameron to David Miliband's Michael Portillo?0 -
HYUFD said:
The problem is most of those Labour voters are concentrated in heavily Remain, safe Labour inner city and university town seats. As Corbyn proved in Lewisham East last week he can afford to see the Labour vote down 17% in such seats in favour of the more pro soft Brexit and pro EEA LDs and still hold the seat.
However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
With a decision that big I think they should have, and for all we know they did. But blaming the EU is pretty pathetic. We are the ones who want to leave the single market and the customs union, and even now aren't clear exactly what we want. And don't think Airbus are the only company making this kind of decision. A small company I work with in London has just decided to open a Paris office. It's only 6 jobs, and may not lead to any job losses in the UK operation - though my guess is it will. But it certainly has displaced job creation and investment from the UK to the continent.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
I think the adverse consequences of Brexit are going to be big and long term and won't be quickly reversed even if we rejoin fairly quickly.0 -
You can be 100% certain that the planning has already begun. As you say, the factories would not close overnight. They would be wound-down and investments would cease. It would be a process - and one that would be repeated in other businesses that rely on EU-wide supply chains. The question is, how are the jobs replaced? We saw what happened with deindustrialisation in the 80s and 90s, and the affect that had on countless communities across the country, and we know how devastating and long term the problems this kind of thing causes. So, what's the plan to mitigate it?Nigelb said:
In any event, that wasn’t what Airbus were saying at all. Rather that a no deal Brexit would cause significant, and very expensive production delays - and that the long term future of production in the UK would be up for question.rcs1000 said:
Airbus would not go bankrupt if it couldn't get wings. To put in context, it has €8bn of cash on hand, plus another €2bn of marketable securities, and its customers owe it €5bn.ralphmalph said:Just to close the thread the papers are reporting what the Airbus employee said in his speech.
No deal means
"Because almost all the wings for the company’s airliners are made in the UK, this could cause production at Airbus plants around the world to be halted. "
Bankrupt.
It would be a major financial blow, though, and it would need to put its other factories on short work schedules, probably have to raise financing at a expensive rate, and then attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year. It would probably also see some customer cancellations as planes would not be able to be delivered as quickly as planned. (Although as Airbus has close to a TEN YEAR backlog on the A320 family, and Boeing is SEVEN years for the 737 series, I doubt there would be many people who would cancel an order expected in three years to go to the back of the queue with Boeing.)
Edit to add: Airbus also has a thriving airplane maintenance business that would continue to be a cashcow for the company, which would cushion the blow somewhat.
The idea that they would simply stop building wings here is just silly. What would undoubtedly happen would be immediate planning for second sourcing, and long term planning for shifting production elsewhere. The next generation of wings would probably not be built here.
Were we to lose the business, we would not get it back.
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No way could you get a factory up and running at 50% capacity in a year, these facilities are f'ing enormous - roads, bridges and tunnels to accommodate the parts' movement need to be built.not to mention access to airfields etc. Look at LHR third runway thats the sort of project you are talking about..... Plenty of countries want them and I can see the Spanish pushing very hard for this, with a new govt on a job creation ticket they will be lobbying hard already....UK aerospace will be in for some turbulence if you dont mind the punrcs1000 said:
I guess they could probably get another factory running at 50% capacity in a year, and at 100% in two. They'd have some pissed off customers, and probably lose €10bn or so in foregone profit, but they wouldn't go bust.viewcode said:
The tailplanes are made in Spain. The construction techniques and skillsets are the same for wings as tailplanes, since tailplanes are just smaller wings (or wings are bigger tailplanes, if you see what I mean). So there are no conceptual problems, altho there are logistic problems a'plenty.rcs1000 said:...attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year...
Of course, this would have a knock on effect on a number of other businesses: there's Airbus's supply chain in the UK and the EU, and of course, Rolls Royce would be affected as Airbus is about 60% of their commercial jet sales, against 40% for Boeing.0 -
David Miliband in electoral terms is Theresa May not Tony Blair. Claims he would have won under the new system make to my mind questionable assumptions about how registered supporters would have voted. It's perhaps telling the section he lost is the section least closely associated with Labour.TheJezziah said:As Andy mentioned it a few hours (or a few posts ago) I'd like to think most people would remember at this point...
It still doesn't quite explain how this hypothetical election and/or referendum winning machine failed with the one real contest he did actually face and in more favourable circumstances then the hypothetical ones it is said he would have done better in. I feel it has much more basis in wishful thinking rather than rational analysis.
For all his talent as an administrator he simply hasn't got the charisma or the imagination to lead a party, never mind a government. That, ultimately, is why he couldn't topple Brown and why he couldn't beat his brother. Corbyn has the former, not the latter. Ed had the latter, not the former. Put the three together and you would have an invincible leader as well as flying pigs.0 -
Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.
It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.0 -
Yep - that's another side of Brexit: jobs that would have been created in the UK, investments that would have been made, taxes that would have been paid, will now be created, made and paid in countries that remain in the single market and customs union.Recidivist said:HYUFD said:The problem is most of those Labour voters are concentrated in heavily Remain, safe Labour inner city and university town seats. As Corbyn proved in Lewisham East last week he can afford to see the Labour vote down 17% in such seats in favour of the more pro soft Brexit and pro EEA LDs and still hold the seat.
However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
With a decision that big I think they should have, and for all we know they did. But blaming the EU is pretty pathetic. We are the ones who want to leave the single market and the customs union, and even now aren't clear exactly what we want. And don't think Airbus are the only company making this kind of decision. A small company I work with in London has just decided to open a Paris office. It's only 6 jobs, and may not lead to any job losses in the UK operation - though my guess is it will. But it certainly has displaced job creation and investment from the UK to the continent.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
I think the adverse consequences of Brexit are going to be big and long term and won't be quickly reversed even if we rejoin fairly quickly.
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All for the sake of a token reduction in FoM, which is all the deal will give us.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that's another side of Brexit: jobs that would have been created in the UK, investments that would have been made, taxes that would have been paid, will now be created, made and paid in countries that remain in the single market and customs union.Recidivist said:HYUFD said:The problem is most of those Labour voters are concentrated in heavily Remain, safe Labour inner city and university town seats. As Corbyn proved in Lewisham East last week he can afford to see the Labour vote down 17% in such seats in favour of the more pro soft Brexit and pro EEA LDs and still hold the seat.
However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
With a decision that big I think they should have, and for all we know they did. But blaming the EU is pretty pathetic. We are the ones who want to leave the single market and the customs union, and even now aren't clear exactly what we want. And don't think Airbus are the only company making this kind of decision. A small company I work with in London has just decided to open a Paris office. It's only 6 jobs, and may not lead to any job losses in the UK operation - though my guess is it will. But it certainly has displaced job creation and investment from the UK to the continent.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
I think the adverse consequences of Brexit are going to be big and long term and won't be quickly reversed even if we rejoin fairly quickly.0 -
To China and the USA may be a way of increasing local content so as to bypass tarriff barriers.Casino_Royale said:Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.
It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.
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But blue passports...not_on_fire said:
All for the sake of a token reduction in FoM, which is all the deal will give us.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that's another side of Brexit: jobs that would have been created in the UK, investments that would have been made, taxes that would have been paid, will now be created, made and paid in countries that remain in the single market and customs union.Recidivist said:HYUFD said:The problem is most of those Labour voters are concentrated in heavily Remain, safe Labour inner city and university town seats. As Corbyn proved in Lewisham East last week he can afford to see the Labour vote down 17% in such seats in favour of the more pro soft Brexit and pro EEA LDs and still hold the seat.
However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
With a decision that big I think they should have, and for all we know they did. But blaming the EU is pretty pathetic. We are the ones who want to leave the single market and the customs union, and even now aren't clear exactly what we want. And don't think Airbus are the only company making this kind of decision. A small company I work with in London has just decided to open a Paris office. It's only 6 jobs, and may not lead to any job losses in the UK operation - though my guess is it will. But it certainly has displaced job creation and investment from the UK to the continent.HYUFD said:
Perhaps Airbus should talk to Barnier and Varadkar thenwilliamglenn said:Damning stuff from Airbus.
I think the adverse consequences of Brexit are going to be big and long term and won't be quickly reversed even if we rejoin fairly quickly.
Interesting that yesterday Javid announced a unilateral recognition of EU citizens in the UK, while the status of UK citizens in the EU. We were told a year ago that policy of Labour's was foolish.0 -
I see you're still pedalling "deindustrialisation in the 80s and 90s".SouthamObserver said:
You can be 100% certain that the planning has already begun. As you say, the factories would not close overnight. They would be wound-down and investments would cease. It would be a process - and one that would be repeated in other businesses that rely on EU-wide supply chains. The question is, how are the jobs replaced? We saw what happened with deindustrialisation in the 80s and 90s, and the affect that had on countless communities across the country, and we know how devastating and long term the problems this kind of thing causes. So, what's the plan to mitigate it?Nigelb said:
In any event, that wasn’t what Airbus were saying at all. Rather that a no deal Brexit would cause significant, and very expensive production delays - and that the long term future of production in the UK would be up for question.rcs1000 said:
Airbus would not go bankrupt if it couldn't get wings. To put in context, it has €8bn of cash on hand, plus another €2bn of marketable securities, and its customers owe it €5bn.ralphmalph said:Just to close the thread the papers are reporting what the Airbus employee said in his speech.
No deal means
"Because almost all the wings for the company’s airliners are made in the UK, this could cause production at Airbus plants around the world to be halted. "
Bankrupt.
It would be a major financial blow, though, and it would need to put its other factories on short work schedules, probably have to raise financing at a expensive rate, and then attempt to get another certified wing factory up and running inside of a year. It would probably also see some customer cancellations as planes would not be able to be delivered as quickly as planned. (Although as Airbus has close to a TEN YEAR backlog on the A320 family, and Boeing is SEVEN years for the 737 series, I doubt there would be many people who would cancel an order expected in three years to go to the back of the queue with Boeing.)
Edit to add: Airbus also has a thriving airplane maintenance business that would continue to be a cashcow for the company, which would cushion the blow somewhat.
The idea that they would simply stop building wings here is just silly. What would undoubtedly happen would be immediate planning for second sourcing, and long term planning for shifting production elsewhere. The next generation of wings would probably not be built here.
Were we to lose the business, we would not get it back.
You'd have a modicum of credibility if you acknowledged the actual deindustrialisation of 1997 to 2010.0
This discussion has been closed.