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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU was wrong
Just 19% of Labour voters in today’s YouGov poll think that the decision to leave the EU was right with 72% saying wrong. I think this is the widest split there’s been.
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I do agree it is weird it hasn't - and probably won't - become an issue for the leadership. Yes, opposition's aren't going to be judged as harshly as government as is only right and fair, but even so.
One lucky goal, and two very good ones.
However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Perhaps, while they think it wrong, they just don’t care all that much ?
And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
Labour lead the Tories by 22%, 53% to 30% in London but only lead the Tories by 12%, 50% to 38% in the North.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qzm7srmkvi/TimesResults_180612_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
The Tories lead Labour in the South, the Midlands/Wales and Scotland.
Spread Shit Phil attacks BJ
The problem is the idiots that thought we could have our cake fifty times over. i.e the Tory remainers, the EU will be nice to us we can have a financial services deal, a single market deal a customs deal, a cake deal with millions and millions on top have poisoned the well, which now means the cliff is a reality, albeit a 5% one.
But, it may be the case that no deal can be reached.
It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.
Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.
http://obr.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
FY 2010/11
OBR prediction £149bn
Actual out-turn £136bn
FY 2011/12
OBR prediction £116bn
Actual out-turn £117bn
FY 2012/13
OBR prediction £89bn
Actual out-turn £121bn
FY 2013/14
OBR prediction £60bn
Actual out-turn £98bn
FY 2014/15
OBR prediction £37bn
Actual out-turn £90bn
FY 2015/16
OBR prediction £20bn
Actual out-turn £72bn
Over the six years the initial OBR prediction was £164bn too low.
Eire, because most of its trade with the rest of Europe goes through the UK and it needs the easiest possible customs and regulatory processes for its goods transiting through it.
The EU, because it wants the UK as close to its orbit as possible, whilst conceding as little as possible, pour encourager les autres. Northern Ireland really is a sideshow, and it's being leveraged - somewhat shamelessly - because of its political potency.
The EU is putting on a show about all how this is all about the EU being on the side of plucky little Ireland, because it's in its interests to do so and to contrast the "influence" Eire has now with the lack of influence the UK will have once it leaves. But it is only a show. The interests are coincident, not driven from the bottom up.
Eire will experience the firm smack of federalism as soon as Brexit's over, and the EU gets round to interrogating and challenging its corporation tax rates again, whereupon it will easily be outvoted or pressured into concessions.
Until a pro EEA figure like Umunna either succeeds Corbyn as Labour leader or leads a new UK 'En Marche' style party, perhaps merged with the LDs, continuity Remainers are screwed
Of course, there are many details to be confirmed, and infrastructure to be established, but it's a start for an orderly departure.
Do you have a like for like comparison?
I don't expect the OBR to be any better at forecasting the future than any "magic" investment fund manager.
But, I do expect the MSM to treat their forecasts with a pinch of salt, not as gospel.
The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.
An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.
"The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.
"The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."
One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.
Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.
"If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."
That said, if rules are broken there should be punishment.
Everything that has happened since the Brexit vote has hardened opinions on both sides of the argument. People have got used to not changing their minds on the biggest issue of the day and are now pretty "comfortable" not changing their minds on any other issues either.
I don't really buy into the argument that it's because half the country hate the Conservatives and the other half are terrified of Corbyn coming to power. I think we've simply elevated stubbornness to a form of fine art. Brexit has made us all think that we're totally correct in all of the opinions that we hold.
I agree that fines may be in order - but they aren't really any basis on which to question the actual result. Still it's nice of the bureaucrats at the Electoral Commission sitting in their cosy London offices to be fining our vets!
Changing your mind has never been seen as taboo before - usually a year into a parliament the polls would be significantly different to the previous election result in some way or other.
For the moment I'm going to stick with my stubbornness theory - due me being, you know, a bit stubborn!
FY 2016/17
Mar 2015 prediction £39.4bn
Jul 2015 prediction £43.1bn
Nov 2015 prediction £49.9bn
Mar 2016 prediction £55.5bn
Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
Actual out-turn £45.7bn
FY 2017/18
Mar 2015 prediction £11.5bn
Jul 2015 prediction £24.3bn
Nov 2015 prediction £24.8bn
Mar 2016 prediction £38.8bn
Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
Actual out-turn £39.5bn
FY 2018/19
Mar 2015 prediction £5.2bn surplus
Jul 2015 prediction £6.4bn
Nov 2015 prediction £4.6bn
Mar 2016 prediction £21.4bn
Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
They lose Richmond Park and St Ives to the Libdems, Southampton Itchen to Labour and Stirling to the SNP.
Not much change on GE2017.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/eu-is-getting-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-says-jean-claude-juncker
What a load of total absolute fake news.
I've come around on thinking we need a referendum on the deal, but what the question would be is unclear.
I am, however, quite surprised that soft and hard brexit are so close, and even how close no deal being good is to bad.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/21/eu-admits-no-african-country-has-agreed-to-host-migration-centre
By comparison between March 2015 and March 2016 the predicted borrowing for the three years increased by £70bn.
Night all.
If Varadkar wants tariffs and refuses to compromise, he will get tariffs
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/GMB-Final-Tables.pdf
No detail as yet (apart from an average cost of c.£45k), but no doubt that will come in time...