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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU was wrong

Just 19% of Labour voters in today’s YouGov poll think that the decision to leave the EU was right with 72% saying wrong. I think this is the widest split there’s been.

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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited June 2018
    Oops - right not wrong

    I do agree it is weird it hasn't - and probably won't - become an issue for the leadership. Yes, opposition's aren't going to be judged as harshly as government as is only right and fair, but even so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Sorry too busy laughing at the argies....
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Yes, the figure in the PB heading is the wrong way round, Mike. Isn`t it?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    kle4 said:

    Oops - right not wrong

    I do agree it is weird it hasn't - and probably won't - become an issue for the leadership. Yes, opposition's aren't going to be judged as harshly as government as is only right and fair, but even so.

    You're right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    PeterC said:

    Foxy said:

    I see that Juncker and Barnier were in Dublin today. The speech is linked to here in full. Doesn't sound to me as if the EU will be stitching up Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1009787587022778369?s=19

    I am sure you are right that the EU26 do not intend to stich up ROI. But by pushing the UK into a NO DEAL corner they will achieve precisely that.
    Dublin gets to worry about lorry queues at Holyhead AND Dover. Just as well they don’t sell lots of food to the UK and EU....
    I don't want to conflate several current issues, however, Boris Johnson said he would go down into a ditch to stop a third runway at Heathrow.
    Did he say what size of ditch?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Sorry too busy laughing at the argies....

    My goodness, the Croatians were good.

    One lucky goal, and two very good ones.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    Foxy said:

    I see that Juncker and Barnier were in Dublin today. The speech is linked to here in full. Doesn't sound to me as if the EU will be stitching up Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1009787587022778369?s=19

    I am sure you are right that the EU26 do not intend to stich up ROI. But by pushing the UK into a NO DEAL corner they will achieve precisely that.
    Dublin gets to worry about lorry queues at Holyhead AND Dover. Just as well they don’t sell lots of food to the UK and EU....
    I don't want to conflate several current issues, however, Boris Johnson said he would go down into a ditch to stop a third runway at Heathrow.
    Did he say what size of ditch?
    I suppose he would argue that his statement was made in his capacity as London Mayor, but still...

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    PClipp said:

    Yes, the figure in the PB heading is the wrong way round, Mike. Isn`t it?

    CORRECTED
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Toms said:

    kle4 said:

    Oops - right not wrong

    I do agree it is weird it hasn't - and probably won't - become an issue for the leadership. Yes, opposition's aren't going to be judged as harshly as government as is only right and fair, but even so.

    You're right.
    About 35% of the time I am, yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Quality from Croatia there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edited June 2018
    Honestly, I reckon if Corbyn had been even slightly less ambivalent about Brexit one way or the other Theresa May would have a majority right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Australia making Argentina look competitive. Another massacre. Buttler just taking the piss latterly.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    Foxy said:

    I see that Juncker and Barnier were in Dublin today. The speech is linked to here in full. Doesn't sound to me as if the EU will be stitching up Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1009787587022778369?s=19

    I am sure you are right that the EU26 do not intend to stich up ROI. But by pushing the UK into a NO DEAL corner they will achieve precisely that.
    Dublin gets to worry about lorry queues at Holyhead AND Dover. Just as well they don’t sell lots of food to the UK and EU....
    I don't want to conflate several current issues, however, Boris Johnson said he would go down into a ditch to stop a third runway at Heathrow.
    Did he say what size of ditch?
    Perhaps he couldn’t find one wide enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018
    The problem is most of those Labour voters are concentrated in heavily Remain, safe Labour inner city and university town seats. As Corbyn proved in Lewisham East last week he can afford to see the Labour vote down 17% in such seats in favour of the more pro soft Brexit and pro EEA LDs and still hold the seat.

    However of the top 10 Labour marginal seats targeted by the Tories 8 voted Leave and of the top 10 Tory marginal seats targeted by Labour 8 also voted Leave and it is in those key marginal seats the next general election will be decided under FPTP

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue...

    Perhaps, while they think it wrong, they just don’t care all that much ?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
    Those "headbangers" being the Tories that think the EU is going to give us a super souper special deal like as recently proposed in the single market for goods and outside for services.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,506
    Nigelb said:

    The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue...

    Perhaps, while they think it wrong, they just don’t care all that much ?

    I think you're right. After all, Mike spent ten years telling us that people don't care much about Europe ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018
    Interestingly heavily Remain London has now overtaken the Leave backing North as Labour's safest region in the UK (no doubt the lack of home owners in London compared to the North has also had an impact).

    Labour lead the Tories by 22%, 53% to 30% in London but only lead the Tories by 12%, 50% to 38% in the North.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qzm7srmkvi/TimesResults_180612_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    The Tories lead Labour in the South, the Midlands/Wales and Scotland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,506
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry too busy laughing at the argies....

    My goodness, the Croatians were good.

    One lucky goal, and two very good ones.
    A feature of this World Cup: almost everyone has struggled against almost everyone. Almost no games have been won by more than a single goal. And then Croatia go and put 3 past Argentina. OK, not the best Argetina side ever, but still a side with one of the top two footballers in the world in it. Well played Croatia.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
    Those "headbangers" being the Tories that think the EU is going to give us a super souper special deal like as recently proposed in the single market for goods and outside for services.
    Well I actually meant the headbangers who want to take us over the cliff, but whichever. There are hardly any realists in today's Tory party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Blue on Blue

    Spread Shit Phil attacks BJ
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
    And quite possibly "miscalculated" that a large part of his GE election vote may have been a protest vote convinced that there was no chance of him actually winning.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
    Those "headbangers" being the Tories that think the EU is going to give us a super souper special deal like as recently proposed in the single market for goods and outside for services.
    Well I actually meant the headbangers who want to take us over the cliff, but whichever. There are hardly any realists in today's Tory party.
    No Tory wants to take us over the cliff. The headbangers in your words, just think the only/best deal is third country with an FTA and always have done.
    The problem is the idiots that thought we could have our cake fifty times over. i.e the Tory remainers, the EU will be nice to us we can have a financial services deal, a single market deal a customs deal, a cake deal with millions and millions on top have poisoned the well, which now means the cliff is a reality, albeit a 5% one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Blue on Blue

    Spread Shit Phil attacks BJ

    Very good. How long did it take you to come up with that one?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    Foxy said:

    I see that Juncker and Barnier were in Dublin today. The speech is linked to here in full. Doesn't sound to me as if the EU will be stitching up Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1009787587022778369?s=19

    I am sure you are right that the EU26 do not intend to stich up ROI. But by pushing the UK into a NO DEAL corner they will achieve precisely that.
    Dublin gets to worry about lorry queues at Holyhead AND Dover. Just as well they don’t sell lots of food to the UK and EU....
    I don't want to conflate several current issues, however, Boris Johnson said he would go down into a ditch to stop a third runway at Heathrow.
    Did he say what size of ditch?
    I suppose he would argue that his statement was made in his capacity as London Mayor, but still...

    He was also promoting Boris Island as the new London airport.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
    He won't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    edited June 2018
    alex. said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
    And quite possibly "miscalculated" that a large part of his GE election vote may have been a protest vote convinced that there was no chance of him actually winning.
    Considering that today's Yougov was Con 42, Lab 40, it seems that theory is debunked. A year long affiliation with a party is not an isolated protest vote.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Big announcement by Phil on green finance
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
    He won't.
    That is what Toxic Theresa thought last year. And she is more popular than her minions.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Good speech by PH
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
    He won't.
    Why couldn't he? They might be disappointed, but if that was a reason to switch it's still a reason to punish the Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
    He won't.
    That is what Toxic Theresa thought last year. And she is more popular than her minions.
    And more popular than Corbyn
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    And just think what the nuumbers would have been if lots of Remainers hadn't already split. Corbyn's a clown and his chances of ever winning an election are zero.

    According to that piece earlier, Corbyn gained 20% of Tory Remainers. If he can hold them while either regaining or neutralising Labour Leavers that churned the other way, Job Done.
    He won't.
    That is what Toxic Theresa thought last year. And she is more popular than her minions.
    No she didn't, as Corbyn hadn't gained them at that point!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
    Those "headbangers" being the Tories that think the EU is going to give us a super souper special deal like as recently proposed in the single market for goods and outside for services.
    Well I actually meant the headbangers who want to take us over the cliff, but whichever. There are hardly any realists in today's Tory party.
    Few people want to go over the cliff.

    But, it may be the case that no deal can be reached.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
    They've been hoist by their own petard since GE2015.

    It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.

    Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    edited June 2018
    FPT
    tlg86 said:

    To summarise some of the OBR borrowing predictions of the last year and a half:

    FY 2016/17
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn

    Do you have comparable figures for pre 2016-17?
    The first OBR prediction was in June 2010.

    http://obr.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf

    FY 2010/11
    OBR prediction £149bn
    Actual out-turn £136bn

    FY 2011/12
    OBR prediction £116bn
    Actual out-turn £117bn

    FY 2012/13
    OBR prediction £89bn
    Actual out-turn £121bn

    FY 2013/14
    OBR prediction £60bn
    Actual out-turn £98bn

    FY 2014/15
    OBR prediction £37bn
    Actual out-turn £90bn

    FY 2015/16
    OBR prediction £20bn
    Actual out-turn £72bn

    Over the six years the initial OBR prediction was £164bn too low.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Am I the only person who is so utterly fed-up with hearing about Heathrow that they no longer care if they expand it, close it or do nothing at all as long as they stop talking about it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
    They've been hoist by their own petard since GE2015.

    It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.

    Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.
    If Corbyn were a strong Remainer, Leave would have lost.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    FPT - softening Brexit is both Eire's and the EU's mutual interest.

    Eire, because most of its trade with the rest of Europe goes through the UK and it needs the easiest possible customs and regulatory processes for its goods transiting through it.

    The EU, because it wants the UK as close to its orbit as possible, whilst conceding as little as possible, pour encourager les autres. Northern Ireland really is a sideshow, and it's being leveraged - somewhat shamelessly - because of its political potency.

    The EU is putting on a show about all how this is all about the EU being on the side of plucky little Ireland, because it's in its interests to do so and to contrast the "influence" Eire has now with the lack of influence the UK will have once it leaves. But it is only a show. The interests are coincident, not driven from the bottom up.

    Eire will experience the firm smack of federalism as soon as Brexit's over, and the EU gets round to interrogating and challenging its corporation tax rates again, whereupon it will easily be outvoted or pressured into concessions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Corbyn has always favoured Brexit, and calculates that Continuity Remainers have nowhere else to go that could hurt Labour.
    They've been hoist by their own petard since GE2015.

    It was the election of both Corbyn that year, and a Conservative Majority Government, that made Brexit possible.

    Without the former, it wouldn't have happened. This is the sort of "black swan" event that you'd probably have got 500/1 on in 2013.
    Indeed which is why it will be hard Brexit, or close to it, guaranteed for the best part of the next decade. Whoever wins out of the Tory leader at the next general election or Corbyn neither will take us back into the single market let alone the EU or leave free movement in place.


    Until a pro EEA figure like Umunna either succeeds Corbyn as Labour leader or leads a new UK 'En Marche' style party, perhaps merged with the LDs, continuity Remainers are screwed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    As long as Tory policy is being driven by the headbangers and they continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit there will be no pressure on Labour to shift its position.

    And Tory policy will continue to be driven by the headbangers and they will continue to make a complete balls up of Brexit.
    Those "headbangers" being the Tories that think the EU is going to give us a super souper special deal like as recently proposed in the single market for goods and outside for services.
    Well I actually meant the headbangers who want to take us over the cliff, but whichever. There are hardly any realists in today's Tory party.
    Few people want to go over the cliff.

    But, it may be the case that no deal can be reached.
    At least there is legal certainty over Brexit following the passage of the EU Withdrawal Act.

    Of course, there are many details to be confirmed, and infrastructure to be established, but it's a start for an orderly departure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    To summarise some of the OBR borrowing predictions of the last year and a half:

    FY 2016/17
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn

    Do you have comparable figures for pre 2016-17?
    The first OBR prediction was in June 2010.

    http://obr.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf

    FY 2010/11
    OBR prediction £149bn
    Actual out-turn £136bn

    FY 2011/12
    OBR prediction £116bn
    Actual out-turn £117bn

    FY 2012/13
    OBR prediction £89bn
    Actual out-turn £121bn

    FY 2013/14
    OBR prediction £60bn
    Actual out-turn £98bn

    FY 2014/15
    OBR prediction £37bn
    Actual out-turn £90bn

    FY 2015/16
    OBR prediction £20bn
    Actual out-turn £72bn

    Over the six years the initial OBR prediction was £164bn too low.
    Your comparison in the prior thread was comparing the March of that year, March and November of the prior year etc with the turnout. Not comparing 5 years prior. I don't believe the OBR was predicting £20bn in Mar 2016. Or Nov 2015.

    Do you have a like for like comparison?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    To summarise some of the OBR borrowing predictions of the last year and a half:

    FY 2016/17
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn

    Do you have comparable figures for pre 2016-17?
    The first OBR prediction was in June 2010.

    http://obr.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf

    FY 2010/11
    OBR prediction £149bn
    Actual out-turn £136bn

    FY 2011/12
    OBR prediction £116bn
    Actual out-turn £117bn

    FY 2012/13
    OBR prediction £89bn
    Actual out-turn £121bn

    FY 2013/14
    OBR prediction £60bn
    Actual out-turn £98bn

    FY 2014/15
    OBR prediction £37bn
    Actual out-turn £90bn

    FY 2015/16
    OBR prediction £20bn
    Actual out-turn £72bn

    Over the six years the initial OBR prediction was £164bn too low.
    Predicting is hard.

    I don't expect the OBR to be any better at forecasting the future than any "magic" investment fund manager.

    But, I do expect the MSM to treat their forecasts with a pinch of salt, not as gospel.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    BBC reporting Leave campaign guilty

    The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.

    An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.

    "The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.

    "The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."

    One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.

    Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.

    "If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    edited June 2018

    Am I the only person who is so utterly fed-up with hearing about Heathrow that they no longer care if they expand it, close it or do nothing at all as long as they stop talking about it.

    I think that is a forlorn hope. As far as I am concerned just get it built and add a fourth runway
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Cookie said:

    Nigelb said:

    The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue...

    Perhaps, while they think it wrong, they just don’t care all that much ?

    I think you're right. After all, Mike spent ten years telling us that people don't care much about Europe ;-)
    "Don't give a Monkey's" was I believe the phrase he used.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    BBC reporting Leave campaign guilty

    The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.

    An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.

    "The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.

    "The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."

    One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.

    Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.

    "If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."

    And as we know from GEs, if a side breached spending rules, it invalidates everything entirely.

    That said, if rules are broken there should be punishment.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Am I the only person who is so utterly fed-up with hearing about Heathrow that they no longer care if they expand it, close it or do nothing at all as long as they stop talking about it.

    Yo are not alone.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    My own pet theory as to why the polls are not moving significantly in any direction is this:

    Everything that has happened since the Brexit vote has hardened opinions on both sides of the argument. People have got used to not changing their minds on the biggest issue of the day and are now pretty "comfortable" not changing their minds on any other issues either.

    I don't really buy into the argument that it's because half the country hate the Conservatives and the other half are terrified of Corbyn coming to power. I think we've simply elevated stubbornness to a form of fine art. Brexit has made us all think that we're totally correct in all of the opinions that we hold.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    kle4 said:

    BBC reporting Leave campaign guilty

    The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.

    An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.

    "The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.

    "The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."

    One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.

    Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.

    "If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."

    And as we know from GEs, if a side breached spending rules, it invalidates everything entirely.

    That said, if rules are broken there should be punishment.

    The remain campaign spent far more than the leave campaign - even ignoring the £10m head start it got with the Govt leaflet to every household.

    I agree that fines may be in order - but they aren't really any basis on which to question the actual result. Still it's nice of the bureaucrats at the Electoral Commission sitting in their cosy London offices to be fining our vets!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    kle4 said:

    BBC reporting Leave campaign guilty

    The draft Electoral Commission's report concludes that Vote Leave and another smaller campaign group did break the rules, the BBC understands, and is expected to recommend at least one fine.

    An Electoral Commission spokesperson said: "In accordance with its Enforcement Policy, the Electoral Commission has written to Vote Leave, Mr Darren Grimes and Veterans for Britain to advise each campaigner of the outcome of the investigation announced on 20 November 2017.

    "The campaigners have 28 days to make representations before final decisions are taken.

    "The commission will announce the outcome of the investigation and publish an investigation report once this final decision has been taken."

    One source said that the draft report was "bizarre" and had "gone way off track" by focusing on the original information that has already been pored over, rather than additional evidence.

    Lawyer Tamsin Allen, who acts for Mr Sanni, Mr Wylie and a third whistleblower, said "The legal opinion and evidence submitted to the EC demonstrated the grounds for suspecting that Vote Leave and BeLeave conducted an unlawful spending scheme.

    "If the Electoral Commission has indeed found those in the scheme guilty of electoral offences, this is vindication for the whistleblowers, but a serious blow for the public and for the integrity of the referendum vote."

    And as we know from GEs, if a side breached spending rules, it invalidates everything entirely.

    That said, if rules are broken there should be punishment.

    It certainly means we are in for another tedious round of demands from the usual suspects for the referendum result to be annulled.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631

    My own pet theory as to why the polls are not moving significantly in any direction is this:

    Everything that has happened since the Brexit vote has hardened opinions on both sides of the argument. People have got used to not changing their minds on the biggest issue of the day and are now pretty "comfortable" not changing their minds on any other issues either.

    I don't really buy into the argument that it's because half the country hate the Conservatives and the other half are terrified of Corbyn coming to power. I think we've simply elevated stubbornness to a form of fine art. Brexit has made us all think that we're totally correct in all of the opinions that we hold.

    For some that is true as evidenced on this forum but I have a reasonably open mind as long as the vote is respected and we leave, and this after I voted remain.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    My own pet theory as to why the polls are not moving significantly in any direction is this:

    Everything that has happened since the Brexit vote has hardened opinions on both sides of the argument. People have got used to not changing their minds on the biggest issue of the day and are now pretty "comfortable" not changing their minds on any other issues either.

    I don't really buy into the argument that it's because half the country hate the Conservatives and the other half are terrified of Corbyn coming to power. I think we've simply elevated stubbornness to a form of fine art. Brexit has made us all think that we're totally correct in all of the opinions that we hold.

    My theory is that it's not stubbornness so much as stasis and a taboo about changing your view unless in an election cycle. Lot's of people who speak to who would tell pollsters they haven't changed their minds have actually moved quite substantially below the surface. There's also an element of "careless talk costs lives" where some people think they need to be seen to get behind Brexit even if they wish it would go away.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    "In hindsight, do you think you were right or wrong to vote Labour?" - ComGov

    :lol:
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Obviously because they thought that Labour was anti-Tory and also in favour of remaining. You have to give it to Corbyn, the way he managed to be all things to all men, and hardly anybody called him out. But he cannot keep up his tricks for ever - not even Mrs May can do that. And sooner or later they will both come crashing down. The sooner the better.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438



    My theory is that it's not stubbornness so much as stasis and a taboo about changing your view unless in an election cycle. Lot's of people who speak to who would tell pollsters they haven't changed their minds have actually moved quite substantially below the surface. There's also an element of "careless talk costs lives" where some people think they need to be seen to get behind Brexit even if they wish it would go away.

    If there are changes going on below the surface then how soon do you expect them to show up above the surface? It wouldn't surprise me if we were to go another whole year with the Conservatives and Labour both dancing close to the 40% point.

    Changing your mind has never been seen as taboo before - usually a year into a parliament the polls would be significantly different to the previous election result in some way or other.

    For the moment I'm going to stick with my stubbornness theory - due me being, you know, a bit stubborn! ;)

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    edited June 2018


    Your comparison in the prior thread was comparing the March of that year, March and November of the prior year etc with the turnout. Not comparing 5 years prior. I don't believe the OBR was predicting £20bn in Mar 2016. Or Nov 2015.

    Do you have a like for like comparison?

    Hope this helps - the borrowing predictions were steadily increasing throughout 2015 and 2016 reaching a peak in November 2016 since when the OBR has been reducing them but not quickly enough to match the actual out-turn.

    FY 2016/17
    Mar 2015 prediction £39.4bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £43.1bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £55.5bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Mar 2015 prediction £11.5bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £24.3bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £24.8bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £38.8bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Mar 2015 prediction £5.2bn surplus
    Jul 2015 prediction £6.4bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £4.6bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £21.4bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    PClipp said:

    kle4 said:

    Team Corbyn seem to have moved from ambivalence to actively attacking Remain activists. It’s not sustainable.

    Why not? Will not the Tories 'own' Brexit? As angry as some Remain voters might be, why would they move away from Labour en masse now if they haven't before, or why stay home?
    Obviously because they thought that Labour was anti-Tory and also in favour of remaining. You have to give it to Corbyn, the way he managed to be all things to all men, and hardly anybody called him out. But he cannot keep up his tricks for ever - not even Mrs May can do that. And sooner or later they will both come crashing down. The sooner the better.
    Both May and Corbyn are offering a Brexit broadly similar to that promoted by the Leave campaign during the referendum. But it is May who will eventually have to admit that it was all a fantasy and cannot be delivered.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Broken, sleazy Labour and LibDems on the slide!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Survation's final 2 EU referendum polls were Remain 45% Leave 42% and Remain 45% Leave 44%, their general election polls are better than their referendum polls it seems

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018
    Given Survation's final GE17 poll had just a 1% Tory lead that suggests a 1% swing to the Tories since the GE
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    The EMA including the latest two polls tonight leave the Tories down four seats, 12 short of a majority.

    They lose Richmond Park and St Ives to the Libdems, Southampton Itchen to Labour and Stirling to the SNP.

    Not much change on GE2017.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Theresa May's dawdling has consequences.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1009915341328220160
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    edited June 2018


    Your comparison in the prior thread was comparing the March of that year, March and November of the prior year etc with the turnout. Not comparing 5 years prior. I don't believe the OBR was predicting £20bn in Mar 2016. Or Nov 2015.

    Do you have a like for like comparison?

    Hope this helps - the borrowing predictions were steadily increasing throughout 2015 and 2016 reaching a peak in November 2016 since when the OBR has been reducing them but not quickly enough to match the actual out-turn.

    FY 2016/17
    Mar 2015 prediction £39.4bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £43.1bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £55.5bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Mar 2015 prediction £11.5bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £24.3bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £24.8bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £38.8bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Mar 2015 prediction £5.2bn surplus
    Jul 2015 prediction £6.4bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £4.6bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £21.4bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn
    Thanks for that breakdown, it's interesting to see the difference from November 2016 to actuals and the current forecast. Already I can count a £43bn Brexit surplus vs OBR forecasts from November 2016. A nice dividend for the NHS I guess!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The man who should be leading the Labour Party on Newsnight at the moment, David Miliband.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    AndyJS said:

    The man who should be leading the Labour Party on Newsnight at the moment, David Miliband.

    David Miliband couldn't even beat his own geeky brother let alone Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Nigelb said:
    The EU is planning to deploy its trillion pound budget!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    What a load of total absolute fake news.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its two largest export markets, post Brexit UK and Trump's USA to slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    It's enshrined in UK law that we cannot create a customs border with Ireland as a result of Brexit, so good luck with that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited June 2018
    Did their question on a referendum on the final deal clarify if that would include a 'reject deal and remain' option?

    I've come around on thinking we need a referendum on the deal, but what the question would be is unclear.

    I am, however, quite surprised that soft and hard brexit are so close, and even how close no deal being good is to bad.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    MaxPB said:


    Your comparison in the prior thread was comparing the March of that year, March and November of the prior year etc with the turnout. Not comparing 5 years prior. I don't believe the OBR was predicting £20bn in Mar 2016. Or Nov 2015.

    Do you have a like for like comparison?

    Hope this helps - the borrowing predictions were steadily increasing throughout 2015 and 2016 reaching a peak in November 2016 since when the OBR has been reducing them but not quickly enough to match the actual out-turn.

    FY 2016/17
    Mar 2015 prediction £39.4bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £43.1bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £55.5bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £68.2bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £51.7bn
    Actual out-turn £45.7bn

    FY 2017/18
    Mar 2015 prediction £11.5bn
    Jul 2015 prediction £24.3bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £24.8bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £38.8bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £59.0bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £58.3bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £49.9bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £45.2bn
    Actual out-turn £39.5bn

    FY 2018/19
    Mar 2015 prediction £5.2bn surplus
    Jul 2015 prediction £6.4bn
    Nov 2015 prediction £4.6bn
    Mar 2016 prediction £21.4bn
    Nov 2016 prediction £46.5bn
    Mar 2017 prediction £40.8bn
    Nov 2017 prediction £39.5bn
    Mar 2018 prediction £37.1bn
    Thanks for that breakdown, it's interesting to see the difference from November 2016 to actuals and the current forecast. Already I can count a £43bn Brexit surplus vs OBR forecasts from November 2016. A nice dividend for the NHS I guess!
    I make it a £51.4bn reduction from the November 2016 to the actual out-turns for 2016/17, 2017/18 and the most recent prediction for 2018/19.

    By comparison between March 2015 and March 2016 the predicted borrowing for the three years increased by £70bn.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The man who should be leading the Labour Party on Newsnight at the moment, David Miliband.

    David Miliband couldn't even beat his own geeky brother let alone Corbyn
    But he might have beaten the Tories in an election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited June 2018
    AndyJS said:
    Arguing among themselves over an option which the other side have not indicated they are ever going to accept anyway? Who do they think they are, the British Cabinet?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.
    There is no such thing as WTO tariffs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.
    Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The man who should be leading the Labour Party on Newsnight at the moment, David Miliband.

    David Miliband couldn't even beat his own geeky brother let alone Corbyn
    But he might have beaten the Tories in an election.
    No he wouldn't, for starters fewer Labour Leave voters would have voted for him especially as he is pro free movement
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,011
    So far tonight we have a Con hold in Fenland, a Lab hold in Basildon, and a Lib Dem hold in Watford.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    slade said:

    So far tonight we have a Con hold in Fenland, a Lab hold in Basildon, and a Lib Dem hold in Watford.

    Holds? Boring, I'm going to bed in protest!

    Night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its two largest export markets, post Brexit UK and Trump's USA to slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    It's enshrined in UK law that we cannot create a customs border with Ireland as a result of Brexit, so good luck with that.
    Nope, all UK law comes from Westminster as Parliamentary Sovereignty is the basis of the entire UK constitution and Westminster can do whatever it likes so if Westminster passes a law to create a hard border and customs border with the Republic of Ireland tomorrow as that is the only way to ensure the Brexit it has already legislated for it can do precisely that.


    If Varadkar wants tariffs and refuses to compromise, he will get tariffs
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Broken, sleazy Labour and LibDems on the slide!
    I fancy 'another party'. Sounds fun!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    kle4 said:

    Did their question on a referendum on the final deal clarify if that would include a 'reject deal and remain' option?

    I've come around on thinking we need a referendum on the deal, but what the question would be is unclear.

    I am, however, quite surprised that soft and hard brexit are so close, and even how close no deal being good is to bad.
    "When the negotiations are complete, to what extent would you support or oppose holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal?"

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/GMB-Final-Tables.pdf
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    53 (!) NDAs for House of Commons - despite previous claims of none (Newsnight).

    No detail as yet (apart from an average cost of c.£45k), but no doubt that will come in time...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its two largest export markets, post Brexit UK and Trump's USA to slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    It's enshrined in UK law that we cannot create a customs border with Ireland as a result of Brexit, so good luck with that.
    Nope, all UK law comes from Westminster as Parliamentary Sovereignty is the basis of the entire UK constitution and Westminster can do whatever it likes so if Westminster passes a law to create a hard border and customs border with the Republic of Ireland tomorrow as that is the only way to ensure the Brexit it has already legislated for it can do precisely that
    You spotted the 'if' in your answer did you?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    If the EU wants its largest future export market, post Brexit UK, to join its largest current export market, Trump's USA and slap heavy tariffs on its goods then so be it
    WTO tarrifs presumably, and we would be obliged to put all other countries on the same rate.
    Fine, we can do a deal with Trump as he said after Brexit if the EU refuse to compromise at all
    Have you not been paying even the slightest bit of attention?! The only deal Trump would do is one that completely screws us over in America's favour.
This discussion has been closed.