politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit
Over the past year I’ve had a pretty good record with my political bets which have come to fruition. I was on the Democrats in the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections and, of course, backed the LDs to beat the Tories in last week’s by-election. I lost on the Arizona special election and my long-shot for the Tory leadership, Damian Green, fell by the wayside earlier in the year.
Comments
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No.0
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Primus inter pares.0
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Almost tempting not to comment and leave you solum inter pares...TheScreamingEagles said:Primus inter pares.
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You're betting on a 2018 May exit ?TheScreamingEagles said:No.
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I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=210 -
Since yesterday.Pulpstar said:
You're betting on a 2018 May exit ?TheScreamingEagles said:No.
I’ll drop you a message later on this morning.0 -
TM appears sort of safe but the Parliamentary votes are going to be divisive, Brenda from Bristol will not be impressed but I wonder whether an election of sorts is in the offing?0
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There are a couple of new Lords due to be elected in the next month.
First up is the replacement for Earl Baldwin of Bewdley following his retirement. This is a crossbencher election so the electorate is the remaining 31 crossbencher hereditary peers.
The candidates list with their short cvs:
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Arrangements-by-election-15-06-18.pdf
The press has already picked up that the Queen's nephew, Earl Snowdon, is on the list; but he is the only one with a blank cv.
My favourite is a 24 year old, Lord Glenconner just out of university; though I doubt he would win.
Election takes place 4 July.
The conservatives are next following the retirement of Lord Glentoran with the election on 14 July. A list of candidates should be available in a fortnight.0 -
FPT about predicting UK's largest trading partner in 20 years (not that that's a particularly important criteria):
UK trade with EU is currently roughly 6.5x that of China. If we assume the Chinese economy grows at 7%, it will be almost 4 times larger in 20 years time.
So, I think it's very possible/likely that the EU remains the UK's largest trading partner for the next 20 years.0 -
But cannabis only has value in proportion to its strength; it's not like wine where you in theory have people sipping their 8% abv pinot whatever and saying Ooh this isn't as aggressive as the Chilean 14% stuff but I really like its citrusy afternotes. Good cannabis drives out bad, and people will continue to buy the real thing, illegally, rather than accept the tradeoff that what you get in Boots is about as psychoactive as Woodpecker cider but hey, it's legal.OldKingCole said:
One of the main issues at the moment is that because the use, sale, growing, keeping etc etc is illegal the only ‘control’ is the capitalist one of ‘what the market says’. And the market says that making stronger and stronger...... ie plants with more active ingredient ....... is more profitable, so that’s what’s available.Casino_Royale said:Colour me sceptical on legalising recreational use of cannabis.
Yes, I know the war on it has been lost. Yes, I know it can have some medicinal applications. But it also has some serious mental health side effects for a minority of younger users, I’ve seen it turn friends of mine into absolute paranoid maniacs and I don’t want all our parks, and public areas stinking of ganja, which is a more sickly sweet and pervasive smell even compared to tobacco.
So, I remain to be convinced. Personally, I can’t stand the stuff and think both banning and legalising it has negative social effects, just a different mix on each side.
Secondly, there’s an analogy with driving a motor vehicle. The assumption is that if a policeman stops one, then it’s almost a certainly that an offence has been, wittingly or unwittingly, committed. So the police are not, in that context, seen as ‘friends’. Making cannabis products, even weak ones, legal would mean that people with the remnants of a legal packet of cannabis products would not regard the police as ‘enemies.0 -
The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.0 -
The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
An election conducted under AV to boot.Verulamius said:There are a couple of new Lords due to be elected in the next month.
First up is the replacement for Earl Baldwin of Bewdley following his retirement. This is a crossbencher election so the electorate is the remaining 31 crossbencher hereditary peers.
The candidates list with their short cvs:
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Arrangements-by-election-15-06-18.pdf
The press has already picked up that the Queen's nephew, Earl Snowdon, is on the list; but he is the only one with a blank cv.
My favourite is a 24 year old, Lord Glenconner just out of university; though I doubt he would win.
Election takes place 4 July.
The conservatives are next following the retirement of Lord Glentoran with the election on 14 July. A list of candidates should be available in a fortnight.0 -
Our trade with China is growing faster than Chinese GDP growth, additionally relative trade growth with the EU is negative and has been falling for some time.rkrkrk said:FPT about predicting UK's largest trading partner in 20 years (not that that's a particularly important criteria):
UK trade with EU is currently roughly 6.5x that of China. If we assume the Chinese economy grows at 7%, it will be almost 4 times larger in 20 years time.
So, I think it's very possible/likely that the EU remains the UK's largest trading partner for the next 20 years.0 -
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.0 -
No he's not. He's noting the possibility of one - which some of us have been noting for some time.williamglenn said:Peston predicting an election in 2018.
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2077746485883419
In any case, I wouldn't take any analysis (as opposed to reporting) from Peston seriously: he doesn't understand politics beyond personalities.0 -
FPTIshmael_Z said:
But cannabis only has value in proportion to its strength; it's not like wine where you in theory have people sipping their 8% abv pinot whatever and saying Ooh this isn't as aggressive as the Chilean 14% stuff but I really like its citrusy afternotes. Good cannabis drives out bad, and people will continue to buy the real thing, illegally, rather than accept the tradeoff that what you get in Boots is about as psychoactive as Woodpecker cider but hey, it's legal.OldKingCole said:
One of the main issues at the moment is that because the use, sale, growing, keeping etc etc is illegal the only ‘control’ is the capitalist one of ‘what the market says’. And the market says that making stronger and stronger...... ie plants with more active ingredient ....... is more profitable, so that’s what’s available.Casino_Royale said:Colour me sceptical on legalising recreational use of cannabis.
Yes, I know the war on it has been lost. Yes, I know it can have some medicinal applications. But it also has some serious mental health side effects for a minority of younger users, I’ve seen it turn friends of mine into absolute paranoid maniacs and I don’t want all our parks, and public areas stinking of ganja, which is a more sickly sweet and pervasive smell even compared to tobacco.
So, I remain to be convinced. Personally, I can’t stand the stuff and think both banning and legalising it has negative social effects, just a different mix on each side.
Secondly, there’s an analogy with driving a motor vehicle. The assumption is that if a policeman stops one, then it’s almost a certainly that an offence has been, wittingly or unwittingly, committed. So the police are not, in that context, seen as ‘friends’. Making cannabis products, even weak ones, legal would mean that people with the remnants of a legal packet of cannabis products would not regard the police as ‘enemies.
(I agree with you)
The problem is if you make only the 'safe' 'vanilla' weed or whatever the legal ones, then people will still go illegal for the stronger stuff.
Part of the 'attractiveness' of the stronger skunk and other drugs it is the oblivion it gives people, and that stuff should never be available.
It might be a 'better' situation, but it's not a solution overall I feel.0 -
Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.0
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In the Ashcroft poll, 35% of people think Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely and only 6% think it is less likely.0
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Thanks. Appreciate that you have practical experience, against my theoretical, although I’m pretty sure one at least of my children have tried it (not sure about adult grandchildren!). I suspect there’s also an issue about the negative connotations nowadays of smoking anything, so there’s a perception that smoking cannabis is ‘nasty’ vs orally ingested psychotropcs. However, as I understand it where cannabis is legal, the illegal use appears to have significantly declined. I wonder if that’s a fact, or whether the local police just don’t bother any more?Ishmael_Z said:
But cannabis only has value in proportion to its strength; it's not like wine where you in theory have people sipping their 8% abv pinot whatever and saying Ooh this isn't as aggressive as the Chilean 14% stuff but I really like its citrusy afternotes. Good cannabis drives out bad, and people will continue to buy the real thing, illegally, rather than accept the tradeoff that what you get in Boots is about as psychoactive as Woodpecker cider but hey, it's legal.OldKingCole said:
One of the main issues at the moment is that because the use, sale, growing, keeping etc etc is illegal the only ‘control’ is the capitalist one of ‘what the market says’. And the market says that making stronger and stronger...... ie plants with more active ingredient ....... is more profitable, so that’s what’s available.Casino_Royale said:Colour me sceptical on legalising recreational use of cannabis.
Yes, I know the war on it has been lost. Yes, I know it can have some medicinal applications. But it also has some serious mental health side effects for a minority of younger users, I’ve seen it turn friends of mine into absolute paranoid maniacs and I don’t want all our parks, and public areas stinking of ganja, which is a more sickly sweet and pervasive smell even compared to tobacco.
So, I remain to be convinced. Personally, I can’t stand the stuff and think both banning and legalising it has negative social effects, just a different mix on each side.
Secondly, there’s an analogy with driving a motor vehicle. The assumption is that if a policeman stops one, then it’s almost a certainly that an offence has been, wittingly or unwittingly, committed. So the police are not, in that context, seen as ‘friends’. Making cannabis products, even weak ones, legal would mean that people with the remnants of a legal packet of cannabis products would not regard the police as ‘enemies.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=200 -
I struggle to see what much of that has to do with a new security partnership, so, given that document was rushed and has several typos in it, I presume there’s some anchoring going on.TheScreamingEagles said:I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=210 -
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
What has the ECHR got to do with security? And, what would the EU gain from ending security co-operation with the UK?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=200 -
He was on about the possibility on ITN last night. Seemed to think that while it was a possibility it was unlikely; gave me the impression that he thought the electorate collectively would say ‘we elected you lot last year. Just effing well get on with it!'david_herdson said:
No he's not. He's noting the possibility of one - which some of us have been noting for some time.williamglenn said:Peston predicting an election in 2018.
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2077746485883419
In any case, I wouldn't take any analysis (as opposed to reporting) from Peston seriously: he doesn't understand politics beyond personalities.0 -
And yet they want to apply standards to what we do afterwards? Yeah time to tell him to do one. Unfortunately the traitors like Grieve are enabling his stance.rottenborough said:Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.
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david_herdson said:
The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Very sound point, but MPs will be very wary of putting themselves up for a vote again, I cannot see how it will benefit either Labour or Conservative in the current climate but it may assist SNP, Lib Dems, UKIP. Turkeys will not vote for Christmasdavid_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.0
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Fine. Then let’s treat them like a third country too. Including immigration.rottenborough said:Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.
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I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
traitor is a very strong word, I cannot see how an ex-Attorney General could be described as traitorous....more than most he is perhaps the most law abiding of anyoneMaxPB said:
And yet they want to apply standards to what we do afterwards? Yeah time to tell him to do one. Unfortunately the traitors like Grieve are enabling his stance.rottenborough said:Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.
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It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
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The paradox of Brexit, how can we be a third country, yet solve the Irish Border issue.CarlottaVance said:
Fine. Then let’s treat them like a third country too. Including immigration.rottenborough said:Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.
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https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1009005481879318529
I can see a campaign emerging here based around baseball caps and headstones with appropriate slogans.0 -
Reading the german press it's rather amusing to watch the Germans fret about their football team0
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It's really very simple, pledge to keep an open border for people and goods in Ireland unilaterally. It's then up to the EU to stop Irish people living in the North from travelling South unimpeded.Slackbladder said:
The paradox of Brexit, how can we be a third country, yet solve the Irish Border issue.CarlottaVance said:
Fine. Then let’s treat them like a third country too. Including immigration.rottenborough said:Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.
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Probably. However it works both ways - they are doing an excellent job in convincing Remainers like me that they are stark raving bonkers. How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
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Why would anyone vote UKIP when they have the current Tory party?swing_voter said:david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Very sound point, but MPs will be very wary of putting themselves up for a vote again, I cannot see how it will benefit either Labour or Conservative in the current climate but it may assist SNP, Lib Dems, UKIP. Turkeys will not vote for Christmasdavid_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
It's really weird, because close cooperation on security is just about the only important area where the EU unambiguously needs us more than we need them.MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
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The crazy part is that the government will walk away from a security partnership and call it a day, that really hurts them a lot more than it hurts us. Unless they are angling for us to walk out it doesn't make much sense.Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably. However it works both ways - they are doing an excellent job in convincing Remainers like me that they are stark raving bonkers. How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.0 -
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?0 -
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
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If the single market declines to 25-30% of UK trade over that timescale, compared to RoW being 70-75% in 20 years, that’s something of a moot point.rkrkrk said:FPT about predicting UK's largest trading partner in 20 years (not that that's a particularly important criteria):
UK trade with EU is currently roughly 6.5x that of China. If we assume the Chinese economy grows at 7%, it will be almost 4 times larger in 20 years time.
So, I think it's very possible/likely that the EU remains the UK's largest trading partner for the next 20 years.
The point is the degree of economic and political integration necessary with the EU for the UK to be economically successful. I think that’s almost inevitable to become less and less important over time.0 -
Vince and a Government of All the Talents?tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?0 -
Is that actually true? It might be, but I doubt MI5 knows much about Islamist plotters in Rouen and most of what MI6 knows about Moscow is probably in the newspapers anyway. Arms moving across EU land borders is not a problem we face here (aside from NI/Ireland). We've already declined to join the EU army.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's really weird, because close cooperation on security is just about the only important area where the EU unambiguously needs us more than we need them.MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
0 -
Anyone care to explain why?Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Additionally trade in services is going to form a much larger part of the overall picture in 20 years time, geography makes no difference there and we already export far more services to non-EU than we do to the EU.Casino_Royale said:
If the single market declines to 25-30% of UK trade over that timescale, compared to RoW being 70-75% in 20 years, that’s something of a moot point.rkrkrk said:FPT about predicting UK's largest trading partner in 20 years (not that that's a particularly important criteria):
UK trade with EU is currently roughly 6.5x that of China. If we assume the Chinese economy grows at 7%, it will be almost 4 times larger in 20 years time.
So, I think it's very possible/likely that the EU remains the UK's largest trading partner for the next 20 years.
The point is the degree of economic and political integration necessary with the EU for the UK to be economically successful. I think that’s almost inevitable to become less and less important over time.0 -
Cheers.Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.0 -
That’s great news. I want no part of the EAW.Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.Casino_Royale said:
And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.
Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
We’re better off without Northern Ireland.
We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.0 -
Because they say so. Best case is that it gives the EU a bunch of more-or-less trivial things to concede in return for the British Government letting Angela Merkel wear the crown jewels three days a week and £40 billion. Worst case is we have to lump it.CarlottaVance said:
Anyone care to explain why?Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Funny thing is, the Lib Dems had 3 priorities (or at least distinct policies that got noticed) last June:OldKingCole said:
Vince and a Government of All the Talents?tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
1) Tax rises for the NHS
2) Decriminalise cannabis
3) referendum on Brexit settlement
Fat lot of good they did in terms of winning seats back, but the Tories seem to have jumped on 1) and 2) this week. Reckon they'll claim the full house by Friday?
not the first time the Lib Dems have acted as outriders for policies that need to happen, but the others aren't brave enough to say in advance....
0 -
Not being part of the EAW is one of the benefits of not being in the EU.CarlottaVance said:
Anyone care to explain why?Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Forcing the UK out of the EU? Isn't that what you want?MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
0 -
I'm pretty sure that MI5 has the SigInt to help the French security services follow the links that would lead to Islamist plotters in Rouen. That's probably even more important for countries other than France, since most European countries are way behind in their capabilities.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is that actually true? It might be, but I doubt MI5 knows much about Islamist plotters in Rouen and most of what MI6 knows about Moscow is probably in the newspapers anyway. Arms moving across EU land borders is not a problem we face here (aside from NI/Ireland). We've already declined to join the EU army.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's really weird, because close cooperation on security is just about the only important area where the EU unambiguously needs us more than we need them.MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
0 -
If May does go it will be to be replaced by a Brexiteer probably Boris or Gove, maybe even Mogg because she has conceded to much on regulatory alignment etc to get a deal with the EU
At the moment though she has enough Tory MPs still behind her and wary of the alternative to survive a no confidence vote0 -
In fact, the Lib Dems supported a referendum on EU membership as far back as 2005 (not that they were expecting the outcome).tpfkar said:
Funny thing is, the Lib Dems had 3 priorities (or at least distinct policies that got noticed) last June:OldKingCole said:
Vince and a Government of All the Talents?tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
1) Tax rises for the NHS
2) Decriminalise cannabis
3) referendum on Brexit settlement
Fat lot of good they did in terms of winning seats back, but the Tories seem to have jumped on 1) and 2) this week. Reckon they'll claim the full house by Friday?
not the first time the Lib Dems have acted as outriders for policies that need to happen, but the others aren't brave enough to say in advance....0 -
It won’t change the parliamentary maths but all Tories want to win the next election.tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
An inspiring leader who can map out a path to that which broadly satisfies everyone, achieves compromise and knocks other contentious bits into the long grass, will achieve more unity and fewer rebellions than one who does not.0 -
'Linked' as in a result of.Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Really doesn't mean that you can't have one without the other.
The EU negotiators stand on 'principles' has been defined in such a way as to be as awkward as possible.
Our handling of the negotiations has been contemptible; theirs fairly despicable.0 -
The rise of the AfD, Lega Nord, Wilders and Le Pen shows it is not just the UK wanting more control over immigrationRichard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Bit like the old MRLP then!tpfkar said:
Funny thing is, the Lib Dems had 3 priorities (or at least distinct policies that got noticed) last June:OldKingCole said:
Vince and a Government of All the Talents?tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
1) Tax rises for the NHS
2) Decriminalise cannabis
3) referendum on Brexit settlement
Fat lot of good they did in terms of winning seats back, but the Tories seem to have jumped on 1) and 2) this week. Reckon they'll claim the full house by Friday?
not the first time the Lib Dems have acted as outriders for policies that need to happen, but the others aren't brave enough to say in advance....0 -
I wasn't aware there were any unicorns in the ministerial ranks.Casino_Royale said:
It won’t change the parliamentary maths but all Tories want to win the next election.tpfkar said:
But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.david_herdson said:The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
An inspiring leader who can map out a path to that which broadly satisfies everyone, achieves compromise and knocks other contentious bits into the long grass....0 -
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.0 -
Maybe something to do with the only reason the person wouldn't have been picked up in the first place at the border is because there is free movement?CarlottaVance said:
Anyone care to explain why?Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
No idea, that said as IANAEUL.0 -
Absolutely, it has become clear that the federalists see the UK as an intolerable hindrance on their plans and want to get rid of us.williamglenn said:
Forcing the UK out of the EU? Isn't that what you want?MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
0 -
CS Lewis and Paul Kearney.El_Capitano said:
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.0 -
It also shows that had we remained, we might have achieved much of what we wanted prior to the Cameron renegotiation - and been seen as moderates into the bargain.HYUFD said:
The rise of the AfD, Lega Nord, Wildets and Me Pen shows it is not just the UK wanting more control over immigrationRichard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Over 90% of Tories voted No in indyref2014 in Scotland on a forced choice between Brexit and the Union some may choose the former but they want Brexit and the Union which the SNP losing a third of their MPs post the Leave vote and the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland despite the Leave votes suggests they will still getTheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.0 -
When it comes to security services and the military, the UK very much has the stronger hand. The EU have more to lose.Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
This is like going into Dragons Den and demanding the Dragon’s pay for your car, mortgage and agree for the whole deal to be adjudicated by your solicitor in exchange for accepting a big investment of their money into your enterprise.0 -
I doubt it, remember the Latvian homophobes rubbish? Do you really think Dave would deal with the devil?Nigelb said:
It also shows that had we remained, we might have achieved much of what we wanted prior to the Cameron renegotiation - and been seen as moderates into the bargain.HYUFD said:
The rise of the AfD, Lega Nord, Wildets and Me Pen shows it is not just the UK wanting more control over immigrationRichard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Personally I would be very glad to be out of the EAW. Its placing of bureaucratic convenience above principles of English criminal law (such as proving a prima facie case etc) are quite offensive. It is typical of May’s authoritarianism that this is one EU law she does want rather than using Brexit as an opportunity to recast our extradition law in line with well-worn and, to my mind, better English legal principles.Richard_Nabavi said:
Michel Barnier's speech:JonathanD said:Richard_Nabavi said:
How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Where are they arguing that?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
The EU gives x millions a week to Northern Ireland...TheScreamingEagles said:
I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.Casino_Royale said:
And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.
Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
We’re better off without Northern Ireland.
We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.0 -
AP McCoy. Alex Higgins, George Best and Mary Peters for older readers.El_Capitano said:
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.0 -
It does make sense if they want to discourage others to leave.MaxPB said:
The crazy part is that the government will walk away from a security partnership and call it a day, that really hurts them a lot more than it hurts us. Unless they are angling for us to walk out it doesn't make much sense.Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably. However it works both ways - they are doing an excellent job in convincing Remainers like me that they are stark raving bonkers. How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?OldKingCole said:
I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
The longer the negotiations go on, the more political upheaval in EU (Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary etc) the more strident the EU will become with us to protect the project by preventing others from following us.
0 -
George Best.El_Capitano said:
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.0 -
Perhaps an imminent landmark change in the law regarding medicinal cannabis usage?DecrepitJohnL said:
AP McCoy. Alex Higgins, George Best and Mary Peters for older readers.El_Capitano said:
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.0 -
To make decisive progress, the Tories need to change the parliamentary arithmetic with a GE soon.
I can't see the Tories voting for a 2018 GE with Mrs May as PM. The latest polls in GB and Scotland leave the situation virtually unchanged. The Tories lose one seat net (gain two from labour, lose two to the LibDems and lose one to the SNP). Mrs May's personal reputation is on the slide. The nasty side of her personality is showing (e.g. Windrush, cannabis) and she's been shown to be untrustworthy (e'g, Grieve amendment, Brexit dividend). In any case, she wouldn't take the chance.
So for there to be a GE in 2018 there first has to be a new PM who can change the game and really cut through with a very good chance of winning a Tory majority. A Trumpian figure. That can only be Boris. But Boris as PM in 2018 is very unlikely. So a GE in 2018 is very unlikely.0 -
I very much doubt that many people vote DUP primarily because of their position on Brexit. Apart from the fact that the originating document was the Treaty of Rome.HYUFD said:
Over 90% of Tories voted No in indyref2014 in Scotland on a forced choice between Brexit and the Union some may choose the former but they want Brexit and the Union which the SNP losing a third of their MPs post the Leave vote and the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland despite the Leave votes suggests they will still getTheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.0 -
It senses Theresa May is weak, so is having a good, thorough probe.Sean_F said:
What has the ECHR got to do with security? And, what would the EU gain from ending security co-operation with the UK?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=20
If it looks like security risks being left out of the deal as a consequence then I expect the European Council will step in to rein in the ideologues in the Commission.0 -
George Best.TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?Casino_Royale said:
And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
CS Lewis.
Nadine Coyle.
0 -
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
See the graph at the top of page 29 (can't work out how to post it, sorry).
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf0 -
We thought that with Galileo, I don't think we can rely on any of our "allies" in the EU. It is time to treat them like an enemy and negotiate with them on that basis.Casino_Royale said:
It senses Theresa May is weak, so is having a good, thorough probe.Sean_F said:
What has the ECHR got to do with security? And, what would the EU gain from ending security co-operation with the UK?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=20
If it looks like security risks being left out of the deal as a consequence then I expect the European Council will step in to rein in the ideologues in the Commission.0 -
DecrepitJohnL said:
Is that actually true? It might be, but I doubt MI5 knows much about Islamist plotters in Rouen and most of what MI6 knows about Moscow is probably in the newspapers anyway. Arms moving across EU land borders is not a problem we face here (aside from NI/Ireland). We've already declined to join the EU army.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's really weird, because close cooperation on security is just about the only important area where the EU unambiguously needs us more than we need them.MaxPB said:
It's a genuinely ridiculous position, coupled with their stance on Galileo one does wonder whether Barnier and Selmayer are trying to force the UK out of EU security so they can push for am EU solution to it and EU intelligence agencies etc...Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably the EU will be happy for the UK Supreme Court to have jurisdiction in the EU, in exchange for access to information from our security services.
From what we were told at the time of the Bataclan and other French atrocities and some other ones in Belgium there were links between the perpetrators and some of our own extremists here. So regrettably our intelligence services do have useful information.
It seems to me appalling that politicians on both sides of the Channel would prefer to play political games that would put peoples’ lives at risk.0 -
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.0 -
That's Leave voters for you!TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.0 -
Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.Benpointer said:
That's Leave voters for you!TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.0 -
Just had a short Twitter conversation re the next Con leader market, which I thought I'd relate a couple of things which occurred to me from it here.
The field is currently being viewed in Leave/Remain / hard/soft Brexit terms, which is fair enough on one level as clearly that's going to be important. However, on broader social and economic policy, the potential field is cluttered to the various strains on the right of the Party. In what he's done so far at the Home Office, Javid is the only one currently playing to the left. Given the number of MPs on the centre/left of the party, if there was an election this summer, that could well give him a substantial lead in a first round vote and, hence, significant momentum - and also make him the default Stop-X candidate for those with strong negatives.0 -
Ah yes, you're right. I was looking at the table which was just of those without a view.Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
See the graph at the top of page 29 (can't work out how to post it, sorry).
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf0 -
You've been doing Barnier's work for 25 years, how is it any different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.Benpointer said:
That's Leave voters for you!TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.0 -
F*cking unbelievable!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.Benpointer said:
That's Leave voters for you!TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.0 -
John Stewart Bell. A genius and very underrated. Is it because he's from NI so no-one there champions him? EDIT: ... or understands him?Sean_F said:
CS Lewis and Paul Kearney.El_Capitano said:
Seamus Heaney.TheScreamingEagles said:Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stewart_Bell0 -
It's not suitable for a Yes/No answer.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
My answer is the same at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, when it was widely argued that Scotland would vote to secede because Scots would not tolerate a Conservative government.
I would prefer Scotland/Northern Ireland to remain in the UK, but I would still prefer a Conservative government to Labour /vote Leave, even if Scotland/Northern Ireland chose to secede as a result.
0 -
-
The Union was secure until you decided Brexit was more important than the UK.MaxPB said:
You've been doing Barnier's work for 25 years, how is it any different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.Benpointer said:
That's Leave voters for you!TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21Benpointer said:
@williamglenn has read this wrong...TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
You can recant now or be dragged into the streets when people realise they were duped by the Brexiteers.0 -
We have a strong bilateral with France, and we also engage with them all via NATO.MaxPB said:
We thought that with Galileo, I don't think we can rely on any of our "allies" in the EU. It is time to treat them like an enemy and negotiate with them on that basis.Casino_Royale said:
It senses Theresa May is weak, so is having a good, thorough probe.Sean_F said:
What has the ECHR got to do with security? And, what would the EU gain from ending security co-operation with the UK?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:I think she’ll go as she’s pissed off the One Nation lot and the £20 NHS dividend cum
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=20
If it looks like security risks being left out of the deal as a consequence then I expect the European Council will step in to rein in the ideologues in the Commission.
I wouldn’t lose any sleep at night if that’s as far as it went.0 -
Barry McGuigan.tpfkar said:
George Best.TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?Casino_Royale said:
And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:
But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.williamglenn said:The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
CS Lewis.
Nadine Coyle.
Frank Carson.0 -
While I agree with a fair bit of that, I do think that a new leader, with a new mandate and established authority within the Party would stand a better chance of imposing themselves on rebels. Apart from anything else, he or she (probably he) would be seen as being the leader to take the Party to the next election and beyond, in a way that May isn't. That affects thinking.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.david_herdson said:...
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
May has also shown clearly enough that she's not prepared to walk out and countenance No Deal. An election this summer would almost certainly ensure that any successful candidate is on record as committing to that option (though whether they'd carry it through is another matter).
I agree there's no small risk in a summer election but there's also substantial risk in there not being an election.0
