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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit
Over the past year I’ve had a pretty good record with my political bets which have come to fruition. I was on the Democrats in the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections and, of course, backed the LDs to beat the Tories in last week’s by-election. I lost on the Arizona special election and my long-shot for the Tory leadership, Damian Green, fell by the wayside earlier in the year.
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https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2077746485883419
billion tax rises is a precursor to agreeing a lot of stuff that is unpalatable to Leavers.
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/1008708299716485120?s=21
I’ll drop you a message later on this morning.
First up is the replacement for Earl Baldwin of Bewdley following his retirement. This is a crossbencher election so the electorate is the remaining 31 crossbencher hereditary peers.
The candidates list with their short cvs:
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Arrangements-by-election-15-06-18.pdf
The press has already picked up that the Queen's nephew, Earl Snowdon, is on the list; but he is the only one with a blank cv.
My favourite is a 24 year old, Lord Glenconner just out of university; though I doubt he would win.
Election takes place 4 July.
The conservatives are next following the retirement of Lord Glentoran with the election on 14 July. A list of candidates should be available in a fortnight.
UK trade with EU is currently roughly 6.5x that of China. If we assume the Chinese economy grows at 7%, it will be almost 4 times larger in 20 years time.
So, I think it's very possible/likely that the EU remains the UK's largest trading partner for the next 20 years.
More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.
Agreed.
But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.
In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.
Turns out I know my party better than he does.
In any case, I wouldn't take any analysis (as opposed to reporting) from Peston seriously: he doesn't understand politics beyond personalities.
(I agree with you)
The problem is if you make only the 'safe' 'vanilla' weed or whatever the legal ones, then people will still go illegal for the stronger stuff.
Part of the 'attractiveness' of the stronger skunk and other drugs it is the oblivion it gives people, and that stuff should never be available.
It might be a 'better' situation, but it's not a solution overall I feel.
https://twitter.com/AlanBatesLaw/status/1008854550990741504?s=20
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1009002329650221056?s=20
I can see a campaign emerging here based around baseball caps and headstones with appropriate slogans.
Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
Where are they arguing that?
So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
The point is the degree of economic and political integration necessary with the EU for the UK to be economically successful. I think that’s almost inevitable to become less and less important over time.
Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.
Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.
Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
We’re better off without Northern Ireland.
We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
1) Tax rises for the NHS
2) Decriminalise cannabis
3) referendum on Brexit settlement
Fat lot of good they did in terms of winning seats back, but the Tories seem to have jumped on 1) and 2) this week. Reckon they'll claim the full house by Friday?
not the first time the Lib Dems have acted as outriders for policies that need to happen, but the others aren't brave enough to say in advance....
At the moment though she has enough Tory MPs still behind her and wary of the alternative to survive a no confidence vote
An inspiring leader who can map out a path to that which broadly satisfies everyone, achieves compromise and knocks other contentious bits into the long grass, will achieve more unity and fewer rebellions than one who does not.
Really doesn't mean that you can't have one without the other.
The EU negotiators stand on 'principles' has been defined in such a way as to be as awkward as possible.
Our handling of the negotiations has been contemptible; theirs fairly despicable.
Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.
No idea, that said as IANAEUL.
This is like going into Dragons Den and demanding the Dragon’s pay for your car, mortgage and agree for the whole deal to be adjudicated by your solicitor in exchange for accepting a big investment of their money into your enterprise.
The longer the negotiations go on, the more political upheaval in EU (Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary etc) the more strident the EU will become with us to protect the project by preventing others from following us.
I can't see the Tories voting for a 2018 GE with Mrs May as PM. The latest polls in GB and Scotland leave the situation virtually unchanged. The Tories lose one seat net (gain two from labour, lose two to the LibDems and lose one to the SNP). Mrs May's personal reputation is on the slide. The nasty side of her personality is showing (e.g. Windrush, cannabis) and she's been shown to be untrustworthy (e'g, Grieve amendment, Brexit dividend). In any case, she wouldn't take the chance.
So for there to be a GE in 2018 there first has to be a new PM who can change the game and really cut through with a very good chance of winning a Tory majority. A Trumpian figure. That can only be Boris. But Boris as PM in 2018 is very unlikely. So a GE in 2018 is very unlikely.
If it looks like security risks being left out of the deal as a consequence then I expect the European Council will step in to rein in the ideologues in the Commission.
CS Lewis.
Nadine Coyle.
56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
See the graph at the top of page 29 (can't work out how to post it, sorry).
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf
From what we were told at the time of the Bataclan and other French atrocities and some other ones in Belgium there were links between the perpetrators and some of our own extremists here. So regrettably our intelligence services do have useful information.
It seems to me appalling that politicians on both sides of the Channel would prefer to play political games that would put peoples’ lives at risk.
The field is currently being viewed in Leave/Remain / hard/soft Brexit terms, which is fair enough on one level as clearly that's going to be important. However, on broader social and economic policy, the potential field is cluttered to the various strains on the right of the Party. In what he's done so far at the Home Office, Javid is the only one currently playing to the left. Given the number of MPs on the centre/left of the party, if there was an election this summer, that could well give him a substantial lead in a first round vote and, hence, significant momentum - and also make him the default Stop-X candidate for those with strong negatives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stewart_Bell
My answer is the same at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, when it was widely argued that Scotland would vote to secede because Scots would not tolerate a Conservative government.
I would prefer Scotland/Northern Ireland to remain in the UK, but I would still prefer a Conservative government to Labour /vote Leave, even if Scotland/Northern Ireland chose to secede as a result.
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1008726533832429568?s=21
You can recant now or be dragged into the streets when people realise they were duped by the Brexiteers.
I wouldn’t lose any sleep at night if that’s as far as it went.
Frank Carson.
May has also shown clearly enough that she's not prepared to walk out and countenance No Deal. An election this summer would almost certainly ensure that any successful candidate is on record as committing to that option (though whether they'd carry it through is another matter).
I agree there's no small risk in a summer election but there's also substantial risk in there not being an election.