politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

And another wicket goes...

That 11/1 from half an hour ago is now 7/2.

And back out to 11/1 again. Hope we’re all making money here...

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Yeah, but consider the reactions if the UK proposed ending the existing security relationship with the EU.

Theresa May has been forced to explain herself to top European politicians after her plan to link security cooperation to trade bargaining with the EU sparked anger on the continent.

Current holder of the EU rotating presidency Joseph Muscat and President of the European Council Donald Tusk said that following calls from London, they would take the British Government’s word that it had been a “misunderstanding”.

Ms May’s repeated connecting of security and trade issues in her letter triggering Article 50 led political leaders in both Brussels and London to claim that she was threatening to withdraw help in the fight against terrorism, in a bid to extract good trade terms. Downing Street later denied it.

Precisely. Now the EU are doing the same.... crickets....

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

twitter.com/guardiantech/status/1006930170446430209?s=21

Cue outrage that the EU are using security as a bargaining chip?

I see that talks are ongoing with the Australians. Perhaps a Five Eyes GPS is in order?

GPS is a US system and they are obviously part of Five Eyes. Do you expect them to give the UK some plum contracts??

Perhaps it should be a "Four Eyes" system without the US.... then again...!

Aus 20/1 now, that’s value with 100 runs still to get for England!

Only the SNP could give an unplanned walk-out all the spontaneity of a North Korean military parade......

.When they stomped out, Labour MPs took their seats instead. If nothing else, it was good preparation for 2022.....

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/the-snp-wants-attention-not-accountability-on-brexit/

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s plain as day that the EU thinks we’re just another Greece; an upstart peripheral state that needs to be brought to heel with a smack on the nose.

Perhaps we’re “unworthy of Brexit”.

https://capx.co/another-nail-in-the-coffin-for-a-meaningful-brexit/

Is the British system worthy of the trust and admiration Brexiteers have given it? If not, maybe the coalitions in the Brexit 2.0 fight might be very different and support for a fuller pro-EU engagement, euro, Schengen, elected President and all might come right back onto the agenda.

Some, even amongst formerly keen Brexiteers, may declare that if Britain is not worthy of Brexit, we should become fully part of Europe instead.

I do not think we should ever, under any circumstances join the Euro. All that would happen is we would enter at too higher rate (Political reasons in the UK) and screw ourselves in the long run. It would also deny us of flexibility when another financial crisis comes along at some point in the future.

In terms of the EU it would be better to be a member for Trade purposes and also to create political unity to stop non Europeans trying to dictate to us. There is a problem with migration due to the disparity in incomes between East and Western Europe. Free movement is alright in the Western European Union where the economies have similar levels of Income but it was always a daft idea treating everyone the same given the inequalities that exist. I actually back a bigger EU but feel that associate membership should have been given to the Eastern European states without Freedom of Movement until their economies were more on a par with Western Europe. It was done for political reasons and was a mistake, the problem with the EU is it does not have a very good accountability switch to deter obvious mistakes.

I still think we have a better deal as part of the EU and trying to bring up the standards across the whole EU in terms of GDP per head will in the long run create a very beneficial market for us to Trade within. I worry with Brexit the economy is going to take one hell of a hit and structurally impair it for decades should we leave without a deal.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.

Yep, I’ve seen that in action with my own family members. Many voters don’t really care about ideology and the political spectrum either. I’ve rarely heard anyone describe themselves as right wing or left wing outside of my time at uni.

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.

Yep, I’ve seen that in action with my own family members. Many voters don’t really care about ideology and the political spectrum either. I’ve rarely heard anyone describe themselves as right wing or left wing outside of my time at uni.

I have, but there's always something, usually something major, which is from the alternative wing that people back, without recognising it as an aberration.

Personally I think I feel like I am getting more right wing than I used to be, whatever that means but political compass insists I am left wing and and closest to Plaid Cymru.

Sandpit said:

Aus 20/1 now, that’s value with 100 runs still to get for England!

Now 40/1, that’s just silly. We still need to get 80 runs.

The_Apocalypse said:

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Very easily.

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

Pulpstar said:

The_Taxman said:

I do not think we should ever, under any circumstances join the Euro. All that would happen is we would enter at too higher rate (Political reasons in the UK) and screw ourselves in the long run. It would also deny us of flexibility when another financial crisis comes along at some point in the future.

As someone working for an exporter, on purely economic-trading grounds let me just say that if we were to join at the current rate then it would be a positive as we'd do away with a source of major currency risk.
The whole 'join too high' argument would be present back when we had 1.4 GBP/Eur which was only a couple of years back.

As an Exporter it might be better but I am thinking of the Monetary policy that can be deployed in a crisis or even as it is currently implemented.

We have not fully recovered from the Financial Crisis.

An interesting point would be the bailing out of the banks under a Euro Currency in the UK. I am not sure it would have happened and some of the major players may have gone under.

I can see the advantage of being in the Euro but the downsides are too great to warrant the risks as I see it.

Casino_Royale said:

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

Many Tory Brexiteers are Bennites under the skin so it's no surprise you're drawn to Labour.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.

Yep, I’ve seen that in action with my own family members. Many voters don’t really care about ideology and the political spectrum either. I’ve rarely heard anyone describe themselves as right wing or left wing outside of my time at uni.

I have, but there's always something, usually something major, which is from the alternative wing that people back, without recognising it as an aberration.

Personally I think I feel like I am getting more right wing than I used to be, whatever that means but political compass insists I am left wing and and closest to Plaid Cymru.

That’s interesting. How would you say you’re getting more right wing? I feel like my politics is moving back to where it was pre May/June 2017 when I was more centre left. I feel like I’m more anti austerity than I was last year, tbh I’m probably more anti austerity than I was in 2015.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I see Caroline Flint is attempting to challenge Kate Hoey for who is the most disliked by Labour Remainers, who make up a majority of Labour members and voters.

Besides being a Leaver (I presume) what has she done now?

No she voted Remain and campaigned for Remain IIRC.

I think Flint is just protecting herself as the Don Valley was identified as being heavily inclined behind Leave. The only job she is protecting is her own!

To be honest she is behaving rather cynically and does not do politicians any favors behaving like this.

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.

Presumably not what Momentum think, as she is Blairite scum etc etc...

Not surprised that Tories (who are mostly Brexiteers) prefer Flint to Soubry. Flint has also come across as very Blue Labour, who tend to be small c conservative on cultural issues as well. A Rod Liddle style Labour Party. I can imagine that going down well with Labour’s Remainers....

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I see Caroline Flint is attempting to challenge Kate Hoey for who is the most disliked by Labour Remainers, who make up a majority of Labour members and voters.

Besides being a Leaver (I presume) what has she done now?

There’s been a bit of an exchange between her and Soubry today.

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

CarlottaVance said:

“A nest of singing birds....”

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1006945003330068480?s=20

Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?

Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.

Yep, I’ve seen that in action with my own family members. Many voters don’t really care about ideology and the political spectrum either. I’ve rarely heard anyone describe themselves as right wing or left wing outside of my time at uni.

I have, but there's always something, usually something major, which is from the alternative wing that people back, without recognising it as an aberration.

Personally I think I feel like I am getting more right wing than I used to be, whatever that means but political compass insists I am left wing and and closest to Plaid Cymru.

That’s interesting. How would you say you’re getting more right wing? .

Hard to say really, bit of a gut feel. I'm not about to take on faith something coming from the right, nor dismiss out of hand something coming from the left, but my instincts seem to lean right more of the time. It might just be PB Tory osmosis. I cannot commit to any party though, there are too many bad ideas coming out all over.

But the Tories don't deserve my vote next time anyway, and I still cannot vote for Corbyn, so it is looking up again for the LDs at present.

The_Taxman said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I see Caroline Flint is attempting to challenge Kate Hoey for who is the most disliked by Labour Remainers, who make up a majority of Labour members and voters.

Besides being a Leaver (I presume) what has she done now?

No she voted Remain and campaigned for Remain IIRC.

I think Flint is just protecting herself as the Don Valley was identified as being heavily inclined behind Leave. The only job she is protecting is her own!

To be honest she is behaving rather cynically and does not do politicians any favors behaving like this.

That's one interpretation. Others are saying she is delivering what her constituents want. I'm in no position to judge her motives, but it isn't impossible that she might change tack for non-cynical reasons, even if there are cynical reasons it is a good idea!

Bitcoin's Price Was Artificially Inflated Last Year, Researchers Say

https://m.slashdot.org/story/342116

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bitcoin's Price Was Artificially Inflated Last Year, Researchers Say

https://m.slashdot.org/story/342116

Was it the pesky Russians again? They;re behind everything.

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.

Presumably not what Momentum think, as she is Blairite scum etc etc...

I don’t think a dislike of Caroline’s views would be limited to just Momentum. Labour’s moderates also don’t seem to align with her thinking very much (see Wes Streeting for example, praising Anna Soubry today). Apparently she’s also got into heated exchanges with Chris Leslie and Chuka Ummuna (today, according to twitter) recently. Then there’s Labour’s membership being mostly Remainers, and pretty left wing according to polling - backed up by Corbyn winning in 2015 and 2016. The Blue Labour POV is likely to have a larger presence among Labour voters, but it isn’t likely to have a large presence among MPs and members. Even among Labour voters, these kind of voters have become less and less apart of their coalition over the last decade or so.

That Guardian Galileo article isn’t quite as advertised (surprise surprise) as the EU wants to give the UK observer status and put cooperation onto a new basis.

Either way, it’s remarkably stupid. The UK and US collaborate far more closely on the F35, for example, as a “third country” including sharing software and security data. And even more so as part of five eyes, a collation of “third countries” that do more for mutual security than the EU’s common foreign and security policy ever has. The UK is already reaching out to Australia and it wouldn’t surprise me if a five eyes equivalent ended up being developed, entirely independent of the EU and a rival to it.

The EU are acting defensively, nervously and irrationally. That interesting, in and of itself, of course.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What are England’s doing...all they had to do was nudge it around to win.

Creating some awesome betting opportunities?

The Indians mafia been on blower?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What are England’s doing...all they had to do was nudge it around to win.

Creating some awesome betting opportunities?

The Indians mafia been on blower?

They might as well have been. I’m making good money today

Casino_Royale said:

That Guardian Galileo article isn’t quite as advertised (surprise surprise) as the EU wants to give the UK observer status and put cooperation onto a new basis.

Either way, it’s remarkably stupid. The UK and US collaborate far more closely on the F35, for example, as a “third country” including sharing software and security data. And even more so as part of five eyes, a collation of “third countries” that do more for mutual security than the EU’s common foreign and security policy ever has. The UK is already reaching out to Australia and it wouldn’t surprise me if a five eyes equivalent ended up being developed, entirely independent of the EU and a rival to it.

Why would the key member of five eyes create a rival to their own system?

England really miss stokes and woakes being able to come in now.

The_Taxman said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s plain as day that the EU thinks we’re just another Greece; an upstart peripheral state that needs to be brought to heel with a smack on the nose.

Perhaps we’re “unworthy of Brexit”.

https://capx.co/another-nail-in-the-coffin-for-a-meaningful-brexit/

Is the British system worthy of the trust and admiration Brexiteers have given it? If not, maybe the coalitions in the Brexit 2.0 fight might be very different and support for a fuller pro-EU engagement, euro, Schengen, elected President and all might come right back onto the agenda.

Some, even amongst formerly keen Brexiteers, may declare that if Britain is not worthy of Brexit, we should become fully part of Europe instead.

I do not think we should ever, under any circumstances join the Euro. All that would happen is we would enter at too higher rate (Political reasons in the UK) and screw ourselves in the long run. It would also deny us of flexibility when another financial crisis comes along at some point in the future.

In terms of the EU it would be better to be a member for Trade purposes and also to create political unity to stop non Europeans trying to dictate to us. There is a problem with migration due to the disparity in incomes between East and Western Europe. Free movement is alright in the Western European Union where the economies have similar levels of Income but it was always a daft idea treating everyone the same given the inequalities that exist. I actually back a bigger EU but feel that associate membership should have been given to the Eastern European states without Freedom of Movement until their economies were more on a par with Western Europe. It was done for political reasons and was a mistake, the problem with the EU is it does not have a very good accountability switch to deter obvious mistakes.

I still think we have a better deal as part of the EU and trying to bring up the standards across the whole EU in terms of GDP per head will in the long run create a very beneficial market for us to Trade within. I worry with Brexit the economy is going to take one hell of a hit and structurally impair it for decades should we leave without a deal.

It won’t. With every year that passes, the EU becomes less and less important for our trade. And the patterns of that trade away from the EU will be (slightly) accelerated just by leaving it.

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.

Aaron's work in the constituency forced Caroline to really get in touch with her constituents I think.

Agreed.

Sandpit said:

Nemtynakht said:

Good old England. Did anyone get on Aus at 40-1

I’ve a tenner at 50 and £100 laying at 7/2

I wonder how much mr Singh of Kolkata has on it?

Sandpit said:

Nemtynakht said:

Good old England. Did anyone get on Aus at 40-1

I’ve a tenner at 50 and £100 laying at 7/2

That 100/-350 or -100/+28.57 ?

Whatever, good work :>

YBarddCwsc said:

tlg86 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I see Caroline Flint is attempting to challenge Kate Hoey for who is the most disliked by Labour Remainers, who make up a majority of Labour members and voters.

I haven't had aa particularly high option of Caroline Flint thus far, but I think the question she raises is excellent:

"Why do we train fewer doctors than Ireland or the Netherlands and why are those jobs dominated by the upper and middle classes?"

Let's remember that we are one of the most advanced country in the world in terms of science and medicine.

Patrick Blackett (Nobel Prize Winner, Labour Minister under Harold Wilson) thought that the UK would be sending trained doctors and engineers to the rest of the world to help their development.

He would be shocked that now we are stealing doctors and engineers from poorer countries.

And even more shocked that this passes for progressive & enlightened thinking.

Given the number of kids we send to university and given the number of people immigrate to the country, it is a scandal that we have a shortage of doctors.

It is I agree quite remarkable that, courtesy of Blair, roughly fifty per cent go to University ... and we are short of doctors.

Not just doctors, we have a massive imbalance in certain subjects. Lots of unis don’t offer things like chemistry anymore...that degree which is required for jobs in an industry that is bloody valuable to the country.

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

That Guardian Galileo article isn’t quite as advertised (surprise surprise) as the EU wants to give the UK observer status and put cooperation onto a new basis.

Either way, it’s remarkably stupid. The UK and US collaborate far more closely on the F35, for example, as a “third country” including sharing software and security data. And even more so as part of five eyes, a collation of “third countries” that do more for mutual security than the EU’s common foreign and security policy ever has. The UK is already reaching out to Australia and it wouldn’t surprise me if a five eyes equivalent ended up being developed, entirely independent of the EU and a rival to it.

Why would the key member of five eyes create a rival to their own system?

Read the article: “Philip Hammond, warned that the UK would “have to go it alone, possibly with other partners outside Europe and the US, to build a third competing system”, if the EU maintained their position. It is understood that talks have opened with Australia on such a project.“

It may or may not involve the US at some level. I’d say it probably would.

The US has GPS, so my question stands. Why would they want to facilitate a rival to their own system?

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1006963342697746439

Have they started voting on amendments yet??

Alistair said:

Reviewing my "Con next leader" book what on earth drove me to back Hammond at absolutely abysmal odds.

He's still live, topping up at current odds (50+) wouldn't be a terrible move.

If only there was a way to get the ball to move around a bit more.

Moeen, Moeen, Moeen, Moeeeeeen, I’m begging of you please don’t botch your pull.

https://twitter.com/JDKaile/status/1006965128473006080

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.

Aaron's work in the constituency forced Caroline to really get in touch with her constituents I think.

Agreed.

+1

Caroline Flint's speech was impressive.

It shows that she gets it. And why EEA won't work. We need to leave the SM and CU.

Charles said:

Foxy said:

To me this seems epic mismanagement by the May team. If they had arranged for all repatriated EU functions such as Farming, Fisheries, Environment etc to Holyrood rather than Westminster, they would flip a large part of the SNP on the subject of Brexit.

A similar arrangement in Wales and NI would most likely be well recieved too, and in NI substantially resolve the Irish border issue. A devolved NI taking control of agriculture could make a policy of alignment with the RoI a local matter.

Stuff their mouths with gold! as Nye Bevan might suggest.

They’ve committed they will.

But they need to revert to Westminster as a matter of technicality and then be passed on

7 years later, if at all.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JDKaile/status/1006965128473006080

Seen this sort of thing before, have we not? Not sure why people get staggered.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1006971870363701249

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JDKaile/status/1006965128473006080

Lol. Can we get a letter from Robert Smithson as well please?

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JDKaile/status/1006965128473006080

Seen this sort of thing before, have we not? Not sure why people get staggered.

Am always amused by the people who think Mike is a pollster.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JDKaile/status/1006965128473006080

Seen this sort of thing before, have we not? Not sure why people get staggered.

Am always amused by the people who think Mike is a pollster.

I know Mike thinks he has a good bet with me for second place but I feel @almost certain to finish third@ overstates it a touch.
Labour winning is the real cert :>

Very poor by Australia, but another 30 runs or so and we'd have been in the shit with that chase.

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Reviewing my "Con next leader" book what on earth drove me to back Hammond at absolutely abysmal odds.

He's still live, topping up at current odds (50+) wouldn't be a terrible move.

That feels like good money after bad.