politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

Sean_F said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

I get adverts relating to baldness.

I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.

AIUI they are not just predicated on browsing history; the page(s) the ads are on also has some relevance. So if this thread is kept going long enough for the ad company to scan it, and enough of us all say 'cougars seeking young men', then we can all share in that glory.

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

Mr. kle4, definitely agree on The Witcher 3. Inquisition was too heavy on fetch quests and busy-work.

Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

Edited extra bit: Kingdom Come Deliverance also had a very good approach to quests and consequences, although was rather bug-ridden.

NickPalmer said:

not_on_fire said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.

2027 GE?

Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?

It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.

Oh come on, the Momentum folk actively campaign against her. The stuff on social media is nasty.

JosiasJessop said:

Way off-topic:

My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

My daughters love LittleBabyBum.

Maybe the beard advert was for you and not your son?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, definitely agree on The Witcher 3. Inquisition was too heavy on fetch quests and busy-work.

Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

Edited extra bit: Kingdom Come Deliverance also had a very good approach to quests and consequences, although was rather bug-ridden.

Character and lore are why I love dragon age so much. I even like 2.

JosiasJessop said:

Way off-topic:

My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

Well, it worked. You noticed and now are reporting it here. Everyone is now off to get waxed.

Mr. kle4, the world of Dragon Age is really interesting, although they did a full 180 on the Qunari. In Origins, Sten asks Morrigan if she thinks she's a man just because she's a woman who fights. In Inquisition, Iron Bull is all about transgender rights and giving lectures even if you ask perfectly innocuous questions.

Also not a fan of the Bioware approach to DLC. I'll probably not buy the next game right away. See if there's a GOTY.

Mr. Eagles, ha. That doesn't seem very fair.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

And there in a nutshell is a summary of the major taxation question facing the country.

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

Way off-topic:

My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

My daughters love LittleBabyBum.

Maybe the beard advert was for you and not your son?

LBB is like crack cocaine for toddlers.

I'm not bearded, and I never grow a beard long enough to get beyond the exceptionally-scruffy look I'm going for.

Jonathan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Way off-topic:

My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

Well, it worked. You noticed and now are reporting it here. Everyone is now off to get waxed.

Mrs J was watching it with him. I can assure you she doesn't need her beard waxing ...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, ha. That doesn't seem very fair.

It’s like the bloody mafia and their protection money.

My mother points out I’m a very bad Muslim and this is a way of making things even.

Plus she says if I’ve got money to gamble then I’ve got enough money to pay the zakat.

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

Germany (I think Schroeder) insisted.

Do you remember we used to have the G7+1 before it became the G8?

Morning all

Vaguely on topic - the "supporters" are always there. There are people who think Jeremy Corbyn is fantastic and those who believe Theresa May is a great Prime Minister.

Had this site existed in April 1997, you can be sure there would have been contributions from those praising John Major to the skies, telling us the polls were wrong and "the people I speak to think John is great, has done really well for the country and deserves another five years as Prime Minister while no one trusts or likes Blair"

Roger said:

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.

errr

no Roger.

RoI doesn't have the NHS, it has health insurance or pay the doctor.

Last estimate I saw was an abortion would cost about 900 Euros. You can get a return flight to any UK city for about £60. Economics rule.

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?

Ever since the demise of the 89p Shop in East Ham High Street, I've become convinced it's a cut-throat world in discount retailing and it appears Pound World may be on the brink.

East Ham High Street may be atypical but you can be sure if Pound World Plus vacates its double front site (formerly occupied by Peacocks) something else will take its place. We have a German Doner Kebab restaurant which has opened recently and the British Heart Foundation are opening a charity shop in ten days.

The Hills betting shop swiftly became a Savers so wither the High Street ? I suspect not, at least round here.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?

They can but there are registrations and regulations about charities.

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?

They can but there are registrations and regulations about charities.

Well indeed registered charities.

Giving money to your mate won't get the tax back.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Gross.

There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.

Thanks.

Is it a female dominated tradition ?

Mr. F, indeed. That's why John formally ordered everyone with over £40 (or £40 a year income, I forget) to turn up at such-and-such a place to be knighted. So he could extort scutage out of them.

He really was a bloody awful king.

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

not_on_fire said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.

2027 GE?

Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?

It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.

Oh come on, the Momentum folk actively campaign against her. The stuff on social media is nasty.

A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Gross.

There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.

Are you doing the whole fasting thing, or giving it a miss on health grounds ?

I observe Ramadan from afar due to the catalogue of meds I have to take.

£15 / hour (off-peak) for darts...these hipsters have more money than sense.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jun/11/throws-of-despair-are-hipster-bars-ruining-darts-flight-club-shoreditch-stoke

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

That is what is bemusing me!

It might be my fault.

My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

Bunch of bloody layabouts.

Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.

How is your wealth defined?

2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.

Is that net or gross ?

And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?

Gross.

There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.

Thanks.

Is it a female dominated tradition ?

In wider Islam it isn’t it, but with Pakistani heritage families it is.

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

Pulpstar said:

On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.

How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?

The economy is one of those things where doing it well takes time and doing it badly can be done rapidly. Trump didn't do anything in his first year to screw it up, but let's see what happens with his trade wars.

The “Jewish Voice for Labour” group that has rubbished claims of anti-Semitism in the party was formed by a number of "totally secular" individuals who "identified as Jewish" in order to defend Jeremy Corbyn, its co-chairman has suggested.

Do they only identify as Jewish on wednesdays?

The_Apocalypse said:

Looking at that poll of Labour members from a few months ago, it’s hard to believe they would back Creasy.

I think we are talking at some future date. Way in the future, relatively. Once one of Gordon Brown's "phases" has passed.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, indeed. That's why John formally ordered everyone with over £40 (or £40 a year income, I forget) to turn up at such-and-such a place to be knighted. So he could extort scutage out of them.

He really was a bloody awful king.

It was well that he died when he did, otherwise we'd have had King Louis. He didn't just lose most of his French lands, he also lost most of England.

Roger said:

A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105

Ms. Apocalypse, any contender does need a certain number of MPs to back them, though. I'd guess a Continuity Corbyn candidate would get that, but a better informed Labour person might be able to give us a firmer answer.

Mr. F, indeed. Dying was the greatest service John ever did for England.

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

I was out all day yesterday but wanted to thank you for your interesting thread header. I think a Labour government would find it a bit harder than you suppose to come to a deal with the EU but nonetheless an interesting header. And I agree that the tone would be likely very different and may make things easier.

@rottenborough It’ll be interesting to see if the membership do change their thinking, so that a more moderate candidate could win. IIRC Labour members notably had a negative opinion on American influence in the world, and with Trump in power right now and what he’s doing it’s hard to see how that view goes away. His presidency has the potential to simply harden their views of American influence. I say this because more moderate candidates tend to be much more pro America than Corbyn is.

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105

Given this is the case, it’s even more startling that Corbyn appears more liked/less disliked with under 40s than other political figures who are much more pro-Remain. For example, I can’t see Chuka Umunna et al exciting these voters that Corbyn’s got, even though he’s much more in step with them on this issue than Corbyn ever has been.

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

And nobody had Trump down as a student of history.

(Well, he can't be a worse student of history than TSE....)

He's old enough to remember Nixon and Spiro T.

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

Pulpstar said:

On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.

How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?

That's surely irrelevant - it's what the electorate think about it.

The_Apocalypse said:

@rottenborough It’ll be interesting to see if the membership do change their thinking, so that a more moderate candidate could win. IIRC Labour members notably had a negative opinion on American influence in the world, and with Trump in power right now and what he’s doing it’s hard to see how that view goes away. His presidency has the potential to simply harden their views of American influence. I say this because more moderate candidates tend to be much more pro America than Corbyn is.

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105

Given this is the case, it’s even more startling that Corbyn appears more liked/less disliked with under 40s than other political figures who are much more pro-Remain. For example, I can’t see Chuka Umunna et al exciting these voters that Corbyn’s got, even though he’s much more in step with them on this issue than Corbyn ever has been.

The great irony of our times.

The spring that produces Vittel is drying up.

Now Nestle want to tell the locals they must use a lot less water

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/aws-zertifizierung-nestle-will-sich-um-seine-quellen-kuemmern-15632922.html

For those interested in F1, an explanation for Hamilton's strangely early stop, and why he ran faster in the second half of the race;
https://www.racefans.net/2018/06/10/hamilton-thought-engine-was-going-to-blow-start-f1/

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

(b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

(b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.

If Malaysia can elect a 92 yr old, maybe Bernie Sanders isn't too old after all.

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

(b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.

I'm not convinced, although hope you are correct. It feels more to me that as the economics gets worse, certainly for the left behind, then the importance of 'values', 'strong community', cohesion etc etc will come more to the fore.

It's the Trump+ candidate we need to start worrying about.

(Assuming Trump himself doesn't start WW3, which is not a given by a long shot).

Nigelb said:

Don't neglect the possibility of 3) He decides not to run again.

Obama did two, it's hard to see Trump voluntarily settling for one.

It's also almost impossible to imagine him passing up the opportunity for four more years of consequence-free stealing.

rural_voter said:

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

(b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.

If Malaysia can elect a 92 yr old, maybe Bernie Sanders isn't too old after all.

A 92 year old who'd done it before....for 22 years.....

Here's a man with a challenge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44414668

Elliot said:

HYUFD said:

Elliot said:

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.

Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First

Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.

Yes, social democrats are being squeezed by anti austerity populists on their left and anti migration populists on the right.

Mind you christian democrats and the establishment centre right are not doing much better and are also being hit by anti migration and nationalist populists

Elliot said:

HYUFD said:

Elliot said:

rottenborough said:

asjohnstone said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.

Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.

Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First

Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.

"my fellow social democrats"

Guffaw. Your posts suggest you are one of the most rightwing Tories on this forum. There must be a massive difference between what you write and what you think.