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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If only David Davis was as competent a minister as he is self aware
UK’s #Brexit Secretary nothing if not self aware: hot mic @Channel4 captures him telling colleague “really probably employed for my character more than my intellect” https://t.co/Tmgj1vqUnW
Comments
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first in the same way that Davis will be first out..0
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Second out the door0
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FPT
So what's new?Casino_Royale said:I see pb.com is in full panic mode this evening.
I've started thinking most of the people are living on their whits... Would be interesting to know how many PB'ers are popping Valium by the handful.
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On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.0 -
David Davis has flounced before.0
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But we were promised sunlit uplands.MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.0 -
Anyhoo.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is about to start.0 -
We were promised less immigration and more money for the NHS. Both can be delivered quite easily within the scope of any kind of Brexit.0
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With Dacre leaving, what are the odds on George Osborne getting the gig as editor of the Daily Mail?
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I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.0 -
We went to see Deadpool 2 today. Absolutely fricking hilarious - if you don't mind the odd dead body or two.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is about to start.0 -
Relatively better than Europe is definitely within the realms of possibility, even with Hard Brexit.eek said:
I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.0 -
The entire Eurozone suffers from deficient domestic demand, as a result of too high savings rates.eek said:
I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.
Essentially, low confidence leads to high savings rates, leads to reliance on external (i.e. export) demand. It's been the rut the Eurozone has been stuck in for some time, and which was identified as "Euroglut."
The interesting questions to me are:
1. Will the marginal utility of saving diminish over time? That is, will Germans decide they have saved enough at some point, and lower their propensity to save? If they do, it could kick off a virtuous circle there
2. What are the measures that Eurozone governments could implement to lower savings rates? I would suggest mortgage interest tax relief, particularly in places like Italy could have an extremely beneficial effect, especially in countries where personal debt is de minimis.0 -
Not a fan of Davis but it's a bit sleazy to take a recording of his private chats and use a self-deprecating joke against him. A bit like the traditional "Sorry, there's no money left" joke, but at least that was leaked by an unscrupulous opponent, not a journo.0
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Lets see shall we...0
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Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.0
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It is not in the German psyche to spend money. It's part of why the Swiss are getting so frustrated with them, they come to Switzerland for the high wages but live over the border in Germany. They contribute nothing to the local economies in which they work and leech from.rcs1000 said:
The entire Eurozone suffers from deficient domestic demand, as a result of too high savings rates.eek said:
I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.
Essentially, low confidence leads to high savings rates, leads to reliance on external (i.e. export) demand. It's been the rut the Eurozone has been stuck in for some time, and which was identified as "Euroglut."
The interesting questions to me are:
1. Will the marginal utility of saving diminish over time? That is, will Germans decide they have saved enough at some point, and lower their propensity to save? If they do, it could kick off a virtuous circle there
2. What are the measures that Eurozone governments could implement to lower savings rates? I would suggest mortgage interest tax relief, particularly in places like Italy could have an extremely beneficial effect, especially in countries where personal debt is de minimis.
We can already see the effects of a possible trade war on the German economy (it's rapidly slowing). Of external demand really does slow down there is almost no chance that domestic demand will replace it. As we always point out, not everyone can be Germany and outside of the Eurozone, Germany wouldn't be Germany, it would be much more like Scandi countries.0 -
I'm not talking about Germany going from a household savings ration of 12% to 4%, I'm talking about it going from 12% to 8% over five years. As German homeownership is increasing, that's not impossible.MaxPB said:Of external demand really does slow down there is almost no chance that domestic demand will replace it. As we always point out, not everyone can be Germany and outside of the Eurozone, Germany wouldn't be Germany, it would be much more like Scandi countries.
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Isn't the issue that Germans will save more during any kind of downturn. That's pretty much what happened last time.rcs1000 said:
I'm not talking about Germany going from a household savings ration of 12% to 4%, I'm talking about it going from 12% to 8% over five years. As German homeownership is increasing, that's not impossible.MaxPB said:Of external demand really does slow down there is almost no chance that domestic demand will replace it. As we always point out, not everyone can be Germany and outside of the Eurozone, Germany wouldn't be Germany, it would be much more like Scandi countries.
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Yes, and next time they'll have to save the whole Eurozone instead of just the PIIGS.MaxPB said:
Isn't the issue that Germans will save more during any kind of downturn. That's pretty much what happened last time.rcs1000 said:
I'm not talking about Germany going from a household savings ration of 12% to 4%, I'm talking about it going from 12% to 8% over five years. As German homeownership is increasing, that's not impossible.MaxPB said:Of external demand really does slow down there is almost no chance that domestic demand will replace it. As we always point out, not everyone can be Germany and outside of the Eurozone, Germany wouldn't be Germany, it would be much more like Scandi countries.
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Evening all
A curious if slightly febrile atmosphere about this evening as the pro-Government apologists claim there's nothing to see and others seemingly expecting the sky to fall in any moment.
Politics isn't like that of course.
As we've seen so before, it's all a play and we may simply be seeing some bites thrown to the audience to keep them interested or it may mask a more fundamental crisis at the heart of Government.
Most if not all parties are coalitions or factions and it's very often only mutual self-interest or fear that keeps them together. Fundamental disagreements can be masked and ignored for longer or shorter periods but eventually there comes a point when individuals have to decide which way to jump.
The Conservative Party held together remarkably well during the Referendum but that did not and could not solve the disagreements within the Party. Cameron might have hoped the air would have been cleared and has either side won 70-30 that's probably would have won with the losing side as dead as AV, pineapple on pizza or anyone thinking Solo is a decent film.
The A50 process has therefore been less about resolving the future economic relationships of Britain and the EU and more about resolving the tensions within the Conservative Party and a weak Prime Minister (who weakened herself in a fit of self-indulgence last year) trying to hold the various groups together.
The question now becomes less which faction prevails but what the losing faction will do.0 -
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
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Actually lack of self awareness is my biggest problem. I don't know what my second biggest problem is. Obviously.0
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'Oh for the days when a government (omni)shambles was when the Prime Minister of the day couldn’t remember if he had eaten a pasty in Leeds train station.'
Ah yes. Astonishing to think how all that was completely blown out of proportion. I suppose the press was determined to teach young Messrs Cameron and Osborne a lesson for their presumptions, and an obscure tax reform concerning heated foods came along. Most odd.0 -
Can't help feeling this is things coming to a head. Can-kicking doesn't work when you run out of road.stodge said:Evening all
A curious if slightly febrile atmosphere about this evening as the pro-Government apologists claim there's nothing to see and others seemingly expecting the sky to fall in any moment.
Politics isn't like that of course.
As we've seen so before, it's all a play and we may simply be seeing some bites thrown to the audience to keep them interested or it may mask a more fundamental crisis at the heart of Government.
Most if not all parties are coalitions or factions and it's very often only mutual self-interest or fear that keeps them together. Fundamental disagreements can be masked and ignored for longer or shorter periods but eventually there comes a point when individuals have to decide which way to jump.
The Conservative Party held together remarkably well during the Referendum but that did not and could not solve the disagreements within the Party. Cameron might have hoped the air would have been cleared and has either side won 70-30 that's probably would have won with the losing side as dead as AV, pineapple on pizza or anyone thinking Solo is a decent film.
The A50 process has therefore been less about resolving the future economic relationships of Britain and the EU and more about resolving the tensions within the Conservative Party and a weak Prime Minister (who weakened herself in a fit of self-indulgence last year) trying to hold the various groups together.
The question now becomes less which faction prevails but what the losing faction will do.
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The Minister for Winging It is running out of wriggle room. But he’ll carry on winging it for a while yet.0
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Not quite as incoherent as the government’s Brexit strategy....TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is about to start.
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hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK0 -
Indeed, the Nation, like the Cabinet, Parliament, Labour and the Tories are firmly united in not knowing what they want.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
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Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
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That implies that Merkel and may are providing leadership for there to be a crisis over.Alanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK0 -
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK0 -
Nothing as pressing as here though. That's going to rumble on for a while.Alanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK0 -
The timing of this is very interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/06/may-to-give-nhs-significant-cash-boost-jeremy-hunt-reveals
"“She is unbelievably committed. You should not underestimate how committed she is to the NHS. So she is absolutely 100% behind getting this right,” Hunt said.
"I’ve been making the NHS’s case that we need significant and sustainable funding increases to meet the demographic challenges we face, and the prime minister completely appreciates that."0 -
May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.0 -
williamglenn said:
DD needs to resign if he can't agree with the government's decision.0 -
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?0 -
no, Merkel has a much wider range and much deeper problems than MayMaxPB said:
Nothing as pressing as here though. That's going to rumble on for a while.Alanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
her remit is Europe, not one sixth of it
currently she is a woman pushing yesterdays agenda on tomorrows world
today her ploy was to boast of increasing Europes military power by decreasing defence spending
how will that work ? She still ultimately wants the \us to do all the work for her but
Obama has gone
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We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.0 -
yupPhilip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.0 -
But those compromises first have to be made in the government and in the Conservative party. Right now that is looking pretty problematic.Philip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.0 -
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again0 -
The same was being said about 10 months ago.DavidL said:
But those compromises first have to be made in the government and in the Conservative party. Right now that is looking pretty problematic.Philip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.0 -
The problem Davis, Fox, Johnson et al have is they said it would be easy and it is anything but easy.GIN1138 said:
What is the point in going ahead with Brexit, when it is a worse deal than we have at the moment? Johnson before the 2016 referendum said that we could vote Leave, try to get a better deal and then stay if things were no better.
Brexiteers have to get out of the mind set that because the gun is loaded we should blow our brains out. There is always a choice not to do it!
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The same PM and government emerged after both the 2 1910 and 2 1974 elections which rather proves the point.stodge said:
Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Just 3 seats changed between the Liberals and Tories in October 19100 -
Trust a Sun journalist? I always check my watch is still there.0
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I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?0 -
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
Interesting article about Merkel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/angela-merkel-clouds-cast-shadow-on-chancellor-s-worldview-a-1211091.htmlAlanbrooke said:
no, Merkel has a much wider range and much deeper problems than MayMaxPB said:
Nothing as pressing as here though. That's going to rumble on for a while.Alanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
her remit is Europe, not one sixth of it
currently she is a woman pushing yesterdays agenda on tomorrows world
today her ploy was to boast of increasing Europes military power by decreasing defence spending
how will that work ? She still ultimately wants the \us to do all the work for her but
Obama has gone
She sounds almost defeated.0 -
yesTim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
like lots of clubs non members can pay a rate and use certain facilities0 -
Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.0
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Yes, while a member may get unlimited use of the golf course in exchange for their membership fee you can be a non-member of the club and still access the restaurants and golf course etc as a paying customer simply paying each time you want to use the facilities instead of an annual fee. Others already do.Tim_B said:I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?0 -
she's alone as one of Obamas advisors put it.DavidL said:
Interesting article about Merkel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/angela-merkel-clouds-cast-shadow-on-chancellor-s-worldview-a-1211091.htmlAlanbrooke said:
no, Merkel has a much wider range and much deeper problems than MayMaxPB said:
Nothing as pressing as here though. That's going to rumble on for a while.Alanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
her remit is Europe, not one sixth of it
currently she is a woman pushing yesterdays agenda on tomorrows world
today her ploy was to boast of increasing Europes military power by decreasing defence spending
how will that work ? She still ultimately wants the \us to do all the work for her but
Obama has gone
She sounds almost defeated.
really she should have stood down and gone out on a high
currently I think she'll end up like Cameron with the way she departed overshadowing any achievements
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No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?0 -
Better to save more rather than to be up to your eyebrows in debt from the age of 18 like most Brits. The high propensity to borrow, which is a product of successful propaganda over the decades by moneylenders, is the reason house prices are so high here. It's also related to how in some parts of Britain doorknocking double glazing salesmen etc. are trained not to linger working on Polish people because on average Poles are far more sussed than Brits about what doorknockers might really be after and they are less likely to sign a credit "deal" because a salesman tells them it's good or that he has managed to win it "for" them. On the continent I've hardly come across any company which has had the gall to offer to "give" me something "for free", but that's standard retail marketing in Britain.rcs1000 said:
The entire Eurozone suffers from deficient domestic demand, as a result of too high savings rateseek said:
I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.0 -
HYUFD said:
The same PM and government emerged after both the 2 1910 and 2 1974 elections which rather proves the point.stodge said:
Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Just 3 seats changed between the Liberals and Tories in October 1910
The net change between the January and December 2010 elections was very small - but quite a few seats did change hands. The changes simply cancelled one another out!HYUFD said:
The same PM and government emerged after both the 2 1910 and 2 1974 elections which rather proves the point.stodge said:
Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Just 3 seats changed between the Liberals and Tories in October 19100 -
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue0 -
I expect a deal to be reached. We don't have any real choice.Philip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.0 -
At the next election AfD and Die Linke will get between 35 and 40 points between them governing without one of them will be almost impossible.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris0 -
They tried that in Weimar under Article 48. Turned out to be a bit of a fiasco.MaxPB said:
At the next election AfD and Die Linke will get between 35 and 40 points between them governing without one of them will be almost impossible.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
Yes, quite a lot of things. Even after we leave we will be the club's biggest single customer and they will be ours. How do we regulate that trade when we are no longer a member? What are the rules?Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
Millions of EU citizens will be here after we leave. What rights do they have? What rights do Brits in EU countries have?
Some of the things we did whilst in the club involved people who were not. We want, in some cases, to be one of those who are not. But what are the terms?
When you leave a club you don't normally go back. We will continue to interact with the EU in multiple ways after we have left.
So in a or the customs union or out of it?
FTA or WTO tariffs?
If FTA how much alignment with and oversight by EU law?
EAW or not?
ESA and Galileo or not?....
This is really nothing like leaving a club.
0 -
I'm assuming that's a typo.justin124 said:HYUFD said:
The same PM and government emerged after both the 2 1910 and 2 1974 elections which rather proves the point.stodge said:
Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Just 3 seats changed between the Liberals and Tories in October 1910
The net change between the January and December 2010 elections was very small - but quite a few seats did change hands. The changes simply cancelled one another out!HYUFD said:
The same PM and government emerged after both the 2 1910 and 2 1974 elections which rather proves the point.stodge said:
Same thing happened in the two elections of 1910 and I think the swing between the elections of 1974 was around 2% from Conservative to Labour.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Just 3 seats changed between the Liberals and Tories in October 19100 -
Controlling - in fact reducing - immigration at no cost.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue0 -
Boris is undoubtedly a figure of fun across Europe. No-one’s heard of Davis.Alanbrooke said:
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris
0 -
it's where Germany is headed while merkel is still thereydoethur said:
They tried that in Weimar under Article 48. Turned out to be a bit of a fiasco.MaxPB said:
At the next election AfD and Die Linke will get between 35 and 40 points between them governing without one of them will be almost impossible.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
Cost-free control, with no restrictions on British rights. That’s what was promised.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
0 -
Don't think 1932 counts as "modern Germany" nor is it a positive omen.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
really ?SouthamObserver said:
Cost-free control, with no restrictions on British rights. That’s what was promised.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
I thought it was all economic activity would stop on a yes vote
that's why me and Jezza voted leave
0 -
I'm willing to offer a £10 bet at evens that between them they get below 35 points. Do you agree?MaxPB said:
At the next election AfD and Die Linke will get between 35 and 40 points between them governing without one of them will be almost impossible.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU0 -
currently eu immigration is going down, the economy is growing and wages are risingFF43 said:
Controlling - in fact reducing - immigration at no cost.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
or do you just ignore data ?0 -
Not sure why you thought that. You should have listened to me. Jezza wants to leave because he sees opportunity in stagnant living standards and lower public spending presided over by a Tory government. But he’s just too toxic to benefit.Alanbrooke said:
really ?SouthamObserver said:
Cost-free control, with no restrictions on British rights. That’s what was promised.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Brexit was sold with the implied promise that nothing we like would change - the infamous £350 million a week for the NHS implies that. Leave was won narrowly on that promise of no cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise herve issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
I thought it was all economic activity would stop on a yes vote
that's why me and Jezza voted leave
0 -
'Modern Germany' in historical terms dates from unification in 1871.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't think 1932 counts as "modern Germany" nor is it a positive omen.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU
Agree with the second part. Could have been worse though, I could have gone for March 1933.0 -
Boris could still revise his opinion on Leave. He can even use his own words prior to the Referendum in June 2016 in which he made the case for a Leave vote as a conduit to get a better deal and if we did not get a better deal revert back to the status quo.SouthamObserver said:
Boris is undoubtedly a figure of fun across Europe. No-one’s heard of Davis.Alanbrooke said:
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris
Article 50 should be withdrawn, no dishonour would be admonished on the proponents of Leave. Simply, the argument for Leaving and the benefits cited by the advocates of Leave were unobtainable. There would be no gloating and Boris might actually have a longer political career and a chance to revive his substantial diminished reputation.
A precedent would be Churchill who made the mistake of taking sterling off the gold standard as C of E in the 1920s, only to rejuvenate his own political fortunes and that of a nation in the Second World War.0 -
nah jezza wants to punish the enemy within, the tories are just a side showSouthamObserver said:
Not sure why you thought that. You should have listened to me. Jezza wants to leave because he sees opportunity in stagnant living standards and lower public spending presided over by a Tory government. But he’s just too toxic to benefit.Alanbrooke said:
really ?SouthamObserver said:
Cost-free control, with no restrictions on British rights. That’s what was promised.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Breo cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has larg, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
I thought it was all economic activity would stop on a yes vote
that's why me and Jezza voted leave
he knows where you live you know
0 -
He does!!!Alanbrooke said:
nah jezza wants to punish the enemy within, the tories are just a side showSouthamObserver said:
Not sure why you thought that. You should have listened to me. Jezza wants to leave because he sees opportunity in stagnant living standards and lower public spending presided over by a Tory government. But he’s just too toxic to benefit.Alanbrooke said:
really ?SouthamObserver said:
Cost-free control, with no restrictions on British rights. That’s what was promised.Alanbrooke said:
that just shows you don't understand the dynamic of the vote.FF43 said:
No you are not missing something. Breo cost.Tim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country clus and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has larg, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
controlling immigration was the biggest issue
I thought it was all economic activity would stop on a yes vote
that's why me and Jezza voted leave
he knows where you live you know
0 -
Disagreed "modern Germany" in historical terms dates from 1945. The current Federal Republic of Germany dates back to 1990.ydoethur said:
'Modern Germany' in historical terms dates from unification in 1871.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't think 1932 counts as "modern Germany" nor is it a positive omen.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU
Agree with the second part. Could have been worse though, I could have gone for March 1933.0 -
That's comparing the 2017 result with the 2018 polls. A comparison of polls with polls is even worse for the Tories, suggesting they'd get hammered.HYUFD said:
Which on current polls would be completely pointless, virtually replicating exactly the result last Junerottenborough said:Been out all day, but just a cursory look at pol news on twitter and all I can say is I am glad I am on with a few quid on a 2018 GE.
Tory lead in last six polls before 2017 GE: 10, 7, 12, 1, 13, 8, mean 8.5%. Actual lead, 2.5%. Most recent polls in 2018: 3, 3, 0, 4, 0, 4, mean 2.3%. And the government looks even shiter now than it did last year. So a Lab lead of 3.7%?
I doubt it. I think if there were a GE now the Tory lead could be 5%. Labour won't have students and dementia tax. They'd be like a defence team trying to win at a retrial once the prosecution have heard all the defence evidence. That's a tough job. Everyone knows the Tories are utter crap on Brexit, but can Labour sell themselves as much better on the issue? The Tories are in with a chance of ridding themselves of the DUP by the end of the year if they boot May out and let a new leader call a GE. I don't think Gove has got enough friends. Johnson would be far too risky. It could just about be Javid who would leave the Labour leadership dizzy, but I'm still mostly on Rees-Mogg.0 -
I'll take that.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm willing to offer a £10 bet at evens that between them they get below 35 points. Do you agree?MaxPB said:
At the next election AfD and Die Linke will get between 35 and 40 points between them governing without one of them will be almost impossible.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU
@TheScreamingEagles can you record this bet please?0 -
We didn't do a deal in December. We capitulated. Which was followed by May and her cabal lying through their teeth to everyone that the backstop didn't matter, it was just a 'form of language' to move on to the trade deal. Every crisis has been kicked down the road - nothing has been resolved.Philip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.
And now that there is no road left, May is trying to put the best face on the civil service instruction that she totally capitulate on every item.
There is not going to be a 'deal'. There will be no deal, or surrender.
If the Brexiteers in the cabinet have a shred of integrity left, they need to resign. But they won't - they are Tories. They have sold the British out to the EU for decades and they are determined to do it again.0 -
By all means disagree with every historian. It won't make you right but it isn't particularly important and who am I to quibble if it makes you happy?Philip_Thompson said:
Disagreed "modern Germany" in historical terms dates from 1945. The current Federal Republic of Germany dates back to 1990.ydoethur said:
'Modern Germany' in historical terms dates from unification in 1871.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't think 1932 counts as "modern Germany" nor is it a positive omen.ydoethur said:
In November 1932 they got over 50% between them.Alanbrooke said:
currently in GermanyFreggles said:
I don't claim to be an expertAlanbrooke said:
I read the german pressFreggles said:
Strange how it always seems to be British right-wingers pushing this lineAlanbrooke said:hmmm
I'm still not convinced Merkel wont go before May
Germany has a bigger leadership crisis than the UK
do you ?
But I can see that Merkel is still Chancellor despite doomsday predictions to the contrary over and over again
16% vote radical right
11 % vote radical left
that's 27%. this has never happened in the history of modern Germany and the trend is upwards.
Merkel is bit by bit destroying the fabric of the Bundesrepublik and by extension the EU
Agree with the second part. Could have been worse though, I could have gone for March 1933.
Also - on a really geeky point now - the current German Republic dates back to 23rd May 1949. The government in Bonn claimed de jure authority over all Germany, although it had de facto power only over the West of it. The DDR was wound up and the BRD claimed de facto authority over the whole country on 3rd October 1990. But that did not create a new republic.0 -
Err, Churchill put us back on the gold standard in 1925. That was a serious mistake. We came off again in 1931 and the subsequent devaluation of sterling helped the economy recover.The_Taxman said:
Boris could still revise his opinion on Leave. He can even use his own words prior to the Referendum in June 2016 in which he made the case for a Leave vote as a conduit to get a better deal and if we did not get a better deal revert back to the status quo.SouthamObserver said:
Boris is undoubtedly a figure of fun across Europe. No-one’s heard of Davis.Alanbrooke said:
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris
Article 50 should be withdrawn, no dishonour would be admonished on the proponents of Leave. Simply, the argument for Leaving and the benefits cited by the advocates of Leave were unobtainable. There would be no gloating and Boris might actually have a longer political career and a chance to revive his substantial diminished reputation.
A precedent would be Churchill who made the mistake of taking sterling off the gold standard as C of E in the 1920s, only to rejuvenate his own political fortunes and that of a nation in the Second World War.0 -
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why are you getting so excited ?archer101au said:
We didn't do a deal in December. We capitulated. Which was followed by May and her cabal lying through their teeth to everyone that the backstop didn't matter, it was just a 'form of language' to move on to the trade deal. Every crisis has been kicked down the road - nothing has been resolved.Philip_Thompson said:We're coming up to a crunch deadline where compromises have to be made and a deal reached, so people are acting hysterically. Either claiming a deal can't/won't be reached or that it is the End of Times if their version of the deal isn't agreed.
The same happened a few weeks before the Phase 1 agreement and then suddenly a deal was reached and besides some last minute posturing it all got signed smoothly.
It's deja vu all over again.
And now that there is no road left, May is trying to put the best face on the civil service instruction that she totally capitulate on every item.
There is not going to be a 'deal'. There will be no deal, or surrender.
If the Brexiteers in the cabinet have a shred of integrity left, they need to resign. But they won't - they are Tories. They have sold the British out to the EU for decades and they are determined to do it again.
Brexit is a process not an event
todays bit players will disappear, reality will set in and new players will sort out the crap
once out we will drift away to a place of our own choosing
0 -
At the price, and on the conditions, set by the Club.Alanbrooke said:
yesTim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party together she has largely done so by avoiding or deferring hard decisions. I don't really criticise her for this. There are too many on both sides of the argument who seem desperate to have a fight in an empty room and would have been more than happy to go to the mattresses over something that wasn't even a possibility so far as the EU are concerned. The EU have also not helped by refusing to engage on substantive issues until very late in the process but that is the nature of the beast and one of the many reasons we are leaving in the first place.
What we are facing now, however, are some hard "decisions". I put that word in inverted commas because if we want a deal (and we do) they are not decisions at all but a negotiating position. This is where the White Paper is important. We need to be clear about what we want before we can decide whether we can get it or not. The party, the country and the cabinet are not unified in what we want.
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
like lots of clubs non members can pay a rate and use certain facilities0 -
While the arguments for Remaining and the benefits cited by the advocates of Remain have been shown to be false.The_Taxman said:
Boris could still revise his opinion on Leave. He can even use his own words prior to the Referendum in June 2016 in which he made the case for a Leave vote as a conduit to get a better deal and if we did not get a better deal revert back to the status quo.SouthamObserver said:
Boris is undoubtedly a figure of fun across Europe. No-one’s heard of Davis.Alanbrooke said:
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris
Article 50 should be withdrawn, no dishonour would be admonished on the proponents of Leave. Simply, the argument for Leaving and the benefits cited by the advocates of Leave were unobtainable. There would be no gloating and Boris might actually have a longer political career and a chance to revive his substantial diminished reputation.
A precedent would be Churchill who made the mistake of taking sterling off the gold standard as C of E in the 1920s, only to rejuvenate his own political fortunes and that of a nation in the Second World War.
Get the idea that politicians talk big and then struggle with the details ?
And BTW Churchill's mistake was in putting sterling ON the gold standard, the ERM of its day.
Though to be fair he was persuaded by the 'Sir Humphreys' in the BoE, Treasury etc.0 -
lolFoxy said:
At the price, and on the conditions, set by the Club.Alanbrooke said:
yesTim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party tog
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
like lots of clubs non members can pay a rate and use certain facilities
well of course, but generally it works out cheaper since you only pay for what you want whenever and leaves you the option to use other clubs too0 -
No, you don't get the members' discount, or the good tee timesAlanbrooke said:well of course, but generally it works out cheaper since you only pay for what you want whenever and leaves you the option to use other clubs too
0 -
I don't play golfScott_P said:
No, you don't get the members' discount, or the good tee timesAlanbrooke said:well of course, but generally it works out cheaper since you only pay for what you want whenever and leaves you the option to use other clubs too
0 -
Isn't personal debt pretty high in the Netherlands ?rcs1000 said:
The entire Eurozone suffers from deficient domestic demand, as a result of too high savings rates.eek said:
I have a feeling that it won't appear to beneficial but actually will be. mind you that's because the Macro Economic model I'm currently reading really isn't pleasant reading and it's especially bad for the eurozone unless Germany starts spending...MaxPB said:On the Brexit/economy argument - I definitely fall on the side of Brexit not being economically beneficial, certainly not in the short term given the way the government has proceeded over the last two years.
I think there is some benefit to be had with Brexit, but the main gains will be democratic and social. Brexit wasn't won on the back of an economic argument, it was won in spite of a strong economic argument against it.
Essentially, low confidence leads to high savings rates, leads to reliance on external (i.e. export) demand. It's been the rut the Eurozone has been stuck in for some time, and which was identified as "Euroglut."
The interesting questions to me are:
1. Will the marginal utility of saving diminish over time? That is, will Germans decide they have saved enough at some point, and lower their propensity to save? If they do, it could kick off a virtuous circle there
2. What are the measures that Eurozone governments could implement to lower savings rates? I would suggest mortgage interest tax relief, particularly in places like Italy could have an extremely beneficial effect, especially in countries where personal debt is de minimis.
And if so why ? An attempt to match the spending of their 'friends' to the east ?0 -
Yes, Sorry I some how described it the wrong way around! The later revival in Churchills political stock is a template for Boris to recant IMO.DavidL said:
Err, Churchill put us back on the gold standard in 1925. That was a serious mistake. We came off again in 1931 and the subsequent devaluation of sterling helped the economy recover.The_Taxman said:
Boris could still revise his opinion on Leave. He can even use his own words prior to the Referendum in June 2016 in which he made the case for a Leave vote as a conduit to get a better deal and if we did not get a better deal revert back to the status quo.SouthamObserver said:
Boris is undoubtedly a figure of fun across Europe. No-one’s heard of Davis.Alanbrooke said:
just bollocksAnazina said:Davis is the least worst of the monkeys behind this shambles. He is a towering statesman compared to the clown Boris, the hapless May and the deeply sinister Rees.
get out of your brexit prism and look at what is happening in the wider world
nobody gives a shit about DD or Boris
Article 50 should be withdrawn, no dishonour would be admonished on the proponents of Leave. Simply, the argument for Leaving and the benefits cited by the advocates of Leave were unobtainable. There would be no gloating and Boris might actually have a longer political career and a chance to revive his substantial diminished reputation.
A precedent would be Churchill who made the mistake of taking sterling off the gold standard as C of E in the 1920s, only to rejuvenate his own political fortunes and that of a nation in the Second World War.
I left a link to where John Major made his Heart of Europe speech on the previous thread. It was indeed in 1991!
0 -
But nor do you pay a joining fee or annual membership.Scott_P said:
No, you don't get the members' discount, or the good tee timesAlanbrooke said:well of course, but generally it works out cheaper since you only pay for what you want whenever and leaves you the option to use other clubs too
Though half of the EU countries don't do that either, rather they get paid to be a member of the club.0 -
While there is all this talk of clubs et al. Why do you remainers/pro EU people not just write in plain English what is the main benefit of being in the single market. I would think it is so compelling that the Leave opinion would crumble in it's full frontal onslaught.0
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I wonder whether Theresa's promised Dacre a Peerage and he thinks he'd better get out of the Mail now while TM's still around to give him one....0
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they've had years to do so but cantralphmalph said:While there is all this talk of clubs et al. Why do you remainers/pro EU people not just write in plain English what is the main benefit of being in the single market. I would think it is so compelling that the Leave opinion would crumble in it's full frontal onslaught.
personally I think a minority of people do quite well out of it and don't want to see it go, but most brits don't hence the result.0 -
Being a member of the Club, has never prevented using another, and is often at a lower rate or even free on a reciprocal basis.Alanbrooke said:
lolFoxy said:
At the price, and on the conditions, set by the Club.Alanbrooke said:
yesTim_B said:
I don't get this. It's very simple: the EU is like a country club. If you are a member you get all the benefits of membership - you can play golf on the club course, use the restaurants and bars, swim in the club pool, play tennis on the club courts and use the club spa and child care facilities.DavidL said:May's government has tottered forward. Some progress has been made as shown by the initial agreement with the EU and then the agreement that allowed us to move on to the second stage. But the number of things in the too difficult pile has grown.
Whilst she has managed to hold the party tog
A different leader would have spent these months setting out a clear vision of what they wanted and invited others to follow. In fairness May tried that In January and then September 2017 in 2 speeches and in the second one in particular she gave the impression of having an objective in mind but there has not been a comprehensive effort to build a consensus around that objecive. May gives the impression of preferring room for manoeuvre to clarity.
The clear impression is that next week is crunch time. Either May leads and persuades a majority of those in the Commons to follow or she is really finished. At the moment it looks pretty 50:50 to me. It will be somewhat less if she cannot bring Davis with her.
If you leave the club you can no longer use their facilities. You can't say you want to leave but would still like to play golf every other monday. You either have the facilities or you don't.
There seems a marked reluctance to admit you can't have the benefits of membership without membership.
Am I missing something?
like lots of clubs non members can pay a rate and use certain facilities
well of course, but generally it works out cheaper since you only pay for what you want whenever and leaves you the option to use other clubs too
As a non member, you have to be a rule taker rather than a rule maker. We are off the committee...0 -
Well, I’m off to San Francisco tomorrow, where we’re hosting our biggest conference of the year at the Palace Hotel. We’ve sold out delegate places and made close to £1 million in sponsorship. Not bad for an event I devised on a sick bag on a flight from Vancouver to Chicago 12 years ago! Meanwhile, our Hong Kong office has doubled in size over the last year. Good, eh?0
