politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 100/1 tip to be Theresa May’s successor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 100/1 tip to be Theresa May’s successor
Matt Hancock living his best life during #PMQs pic.twitter.com/hefCqW8Fua
Comments
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First. And thanks for the header, TSE.0
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Damn, I thought I'd be first.
Oh, well. Second, then.0 -
Apparently there are not any comments, but I bet there are.
Oh Vanilla, you naughty little Minx. Teasing me with the promise of a first, only to sneakily reveal posts later. Wait until I get my hands on you!
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Yawn0
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Ah, smug mode.JosiasJessop said:Apparently there are not any comments, but I bet there are.
Oh Vanilla, you naughty little Minx. Teasing me with the promise of a first, only to sneakily reveal posts later. Wait until I get my hands on you!0 -
More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns0
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Cyclefree said:
More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers0 -
Wasn't there some table recently showing that immigration and terrorism were the two most important concerns in pretty much every country in the EU?CarlottaVance said:Cyclefree said:More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers0 -
On topic, Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport to PM would be quite a jump - but agree, as it stands a trading option it's sound.....Thats nobbled his chances of promotion...
Just spotted the PS - much more likely PS – Another Matt Hancock tip is the 20/1 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Especially if May does not go voluntarily.....her immediate replacement may not fare too well....0 -
John Rentoul:
The prime minister is boiling the Brexiteer frogs: the water is getting hotter and none of them has jumped out of the pan
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-boris-johnson-soft-brexit-customs-a8359371.html0 -
"Before becoming an MP Hancock served as George Osborne’s Chief of Staff so he knows how to work the party and its MPs."
You say that likes it a good thing...
Shame then this electorate will see Brexit as being down to a hand played badly by the Cameron/Osborne Axis. Especially those with a post-Remain Govt. job offer in their wallet from Osborne....
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How abt Brandon Lewis as a live outside chance..0
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Of those surveyed:Cyclefree said:
Wasn't there some table recently showing that immigration and terrorism were the two most important concerns in pretty much every country in the EU?CarlottaVance said:Cyclefree said:More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers
Immigration is the number one concern for people across Europe, with terrorism following closely behind, according to a wide-ranging poll released Friday.
In nine European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Greece and Italy — people believe the biggest problem facing the European Union (EU) is immigration, a YouGov poll found. The only two countries where immigration was not the top EU concern were Poland and Spain, where terrorism and unemployment took the top spots, respectively.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/12/immigration-top-concern-europe/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/11/yougov-data-reveals-what-europeans-think-are-most-/0 -
I can't stand Hancock, but he and Crouch have a chance to go up in my estimation: bring in safe standing.
I think Hunt is much more likely to get PM, but I've had a couple of quid on Hancock just in case.0 -
Why don't you like him? Just curious. I know very little about him so wondered what he has done that has bothered you so.tlg86 said:I can't stand Hancock, but he and Crouch have a chance to go up in my estimation: bring in safe standing.
I think Hunt is much more likely to get PM, but I've had a couple of quid on Hancock just in case.0 -
If I say "he just irritates me", would that be acceptable?Cyclefree said:
Why don't you like him? Just curious. I know very little about him so wondered what he has done that has bothered you so.tlg86 said:I can't stand Hancock, but he and Crouch have a chance to go up in my estimation: bring in safe standing.
I think Hunt is much more likely to get PM, but I've had a couple of quid on Hancock just in case.
As TSE says, he very much on the Cameron wing of the party and I seem to remember him saying some stuff about Ukip on Question Time that I thought was a bit out of order (can't remember what exactly).
Sorry for being so vague!
Just found this on youtube from 2011. Hancock does a very good job of making the case for Brexit!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB6t7QNbRIc0 -
Thank you.tlg86 said:
If I say "he just irritates me", would that be acceptable?Cyclefree said:
Why don't you like him? Just curious. I know very little about him so wondered what he has done that has bothered you so.tlg86 said:I can't stand Hancock, but he and Crouch have a chance to go up in my estimation: bring in safe standing.
I think Hunt is much more likely to get PM, but I've had a couple of quid on Hancock just in case.
As TSE says, he very much on the Cameron wing of the party and I seem to remember him saying some stuff about Ukip on Question Time that I thought was a bit out of order (can't remember what exactly).
Sorry for being so vague!
Just found this on youtube from 2011. Hancock does a very good job of making the case for Brexit!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB6t7QNbRIc0 -
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
Lithuania!CarlottaVance said:
Of those surveyed:Cyclefree said:
Wasn't there some table recently showing that immigration and terrorism were the two most important concerns in pretty much every country in the EU?CarlottaVance said:Cyclefree said:More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers
Immigration is the number one concern for people across Europe, with terrorism following closely behind, according to a wide-ranging poll released Friday.
In nine European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Greece and Italy — people believe the biggest problem facing the European Union (EU) is immigration, a YouGov poll found. The only two countries where immigration was not the top EU concern were Poland and Spain, where terrorism and unemployment took the top spots, respectively.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/12/immigration-top-concern-europe/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/11/yougov-data-reveals-what-europeans-think-are-most-/
How many migrants trek to a middle income country with an indecipherable language?0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Sharapova won the first set and lost the match. Boo hiss.
On-topic: hmm. Interesting idea, Mr. Eagles. I've backed an awful lot of contenders, but might put on a smidgen at long odds.0 -
I thought QE was simply introducing more money into the overall money supply? Where does debt come into it?rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
It's introduced through the purchase (by the Central Bank) of government bonds. The result is that (for example) the BOE owns £435bn of Gilts.RobD said:
I thought QE was simply introducing more money into the overall money supply? Where does debt come into it?rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
Yeah, but can't those simply be paid for by printing £435bn?rcs1000 said:
It's introduced through the purchase (by the Central Bank) of government bonds. The result is that (for example) the BOE owns £435bn of Gilts.RobD said:
I thought QE was simply introducing more money into the overall money supply? Where does debt come into it?rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
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Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.rcs1000 said:
Lithuania!CarlottaVance said:
Of those surveyed:Cyclefree said:
Wasn't there some table recently showing that immigration and terrorism were the two most important concerns in pretty much every country in the EU?CarlottaVance said:Cyclefree said:More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers
Immigration is the number one concern for people across Europe, with terrorism following closely behind, according to a wide-ranging poll released Friday.
In nine European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Greece and Italy — people believe the biggest problem facing the European Union (EU) is immigration, a YouGov poll found. The only two countries where immigration was not the top EU concern were Poland and Spain, where terrorism and unemployment took the top spots, respectively.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/12/immigration-top-concern-europe/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/11/yougov-data-reveals-what-europeans-think-are-most-/
How many migrants trek to a middle income country with an indecipherable language?
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.0 -
That's how it works: to inject money into the economy, the Central Bank prints £435bn (not all in one go), and uses it buy government bonds.RobD said:
Yeah, but can't those simply be paid for by printing £435bn?rcs1000 said:
It's introduced through the purchase (by the Central Bank) of government bonds. The result is that (for example) the BOE owns £435bn of Gilts.RobD said:
I thought QE was simply introducing more money into the overall money supply? Where does debt come into it?rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.
This has three first order effects: Firstly, it directly injects £435bn into the economy; Secondly, it lowers the cost of government funding by introducing a purchase who buys irrespective of price; and Thirdly, it allows the government to save on interest (and principle) repayments.
However, it's *real* goal is a second order effect: by making returns on government bonds less attractive (by lowering their returns via primary purpose two), it encourages spending over saving.0 -
I like Matt Hancock. I wouldn't bet on him as next PM, but worth keeping an eye on.0
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Ditto about the birdsong,. as for the Royal Wedding, I am a monarchist, but I am sick of hearing about it. The hype has been ludicrous.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.0 -
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)0 -
I am not sure whether arrivals are deemed to be EU citizens upon arrival in their destination country, or only after they have been issued with passports. Either way, I imagine that free movement then entitles them to go and live wherever they want.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)0 -
I suspect when the history of Brexit is written Mrs Merkel will not emerge well - and she may have more on her plate than Brexit.Cyclefree said:
I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.rcs1000 said:
Lithuania!CarlottaVance said:
Of those surveyed:Cyclefree said:
Wasn't there some table recently showing that immigration and terrorism were the two most important concerns in pretty much every country in the EU?CarlottaVance said:Cyclefree said:More on that hostile environment for immigrants - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/danes-iron-inger-stojberg-denies-migrants-a-slice-of-hygge-jl55fpfns
Nasty xenophobic hostile Brits Italians and Danes...Cyclefree said:
Shall we add France to the list?
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/France-New-Bill-Will-Jail-Undocumented-Immigrants-for-1-Year-20180423-0002.html
Edit, or Sweden?
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers
Immigration is the number one concern for people across Europe, with terrorism following closely behind, according to a wide-ranging poll released Friday.
In nine European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Greece and Italy — people believe the biggest problem facing the European Union (EU) is immigration, a YouGov poll found. The only two countries where immigration was not the top EU concern were Poland and Spain, where terrorism and unemployment took the top spots, respectively.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/12/immigration-top-concern-europe/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/11/yougov-data-reveals-what-europeans-think-are-most-/
How many migrants trek to a middle income country with an indecipherable language?0 -
I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.0 -
On topic, the bet is fine at 100/1. There is value all over the place because Jacob Rees-Mogg is far too short-priced.0
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Only after they've been issued with EU passports are they EU citizens.Gadfly said:
I am not sure whether arrivals are deemed to be EU citizens upon arrival in their destination country, or only after they have been issued with passports. Either way, I imagine that free movement then entitles them to go and live wherever they want.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
If you are (say) a Somali migrant in the Netherlands, then until you get a Dutch passport, you're stuck there.
(In the case of the Somalis, albeit no other groups as far as I can tell, then the moment they got Dutch passports they headed for the UK.)0 -
For once I'm in agreement. I don't know what it's like for other people but my entire Facebook feed on the wedding has been unpleasant and unnecessary. Snide remarks about Harry's parentage etc complaints about the fawning BBC coverage.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.
Matt Hancock seems to have suffered from being attached to Osborne and denoted a 'rising star' making little impression. If he's doing a competent job as a minister fair play but from his public appearances he doesn't strike me as convincing.0 -
The concern in Lituania may well be of migration from Belarus and Ukraine, inducing cultural change.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
It does show that we need to address migration issues as a Continent though, and consider how best to ameliorate it. This little graphic from one of my favourite tweeters gives a clue why:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/997432109647179781?s=19
Africa has the worlds youngest population, and its fastest growing. Just as you cannot buck the market economically, you cannot buck it demographically.0 -
That's what I thought, but I never appreciated the Somali specificness. I had imagined that the English language would have attracted most groups.rcs1000 said:
(In the case of the Somalis, albeit no other groups as far as I can tell, then the moment they got Dutch passports they headed for the UK.)Gadfly said:
I am not sure whether arrivals are deemed to be EU citizens upon arrival in their destination country, or only after they have been issued with passports. Either way, I imagine that free movement then entitles them to go and live wherever they want.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
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Mr. Meeks, I broadly agree, though it was the sole concern of the ITV News at Ten (ish), so anyone wanting to actually hear any other news would be less than informed by said programme.0
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Well you are wrong. There is polling. Only 46% (including me) share your indifference, not 95%. A substantial minority clearly care enough to be concerned over Corbyn's conduct and with 30 million UK general election voters that is a lot of people to unnecessarily piss off. And that conduct is being widely reported today. Not quite silence on the matter it turns out, instead he found time to also advise a constituent to "Try Russia Today" as an alternative news source.justin124 said:
I would say that a good 95% share my indifference. Very few people tend to be really ardent Monarchists nowadays....Wulfrun_Phil said:
Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.justin124 said:
Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?0 -
Apols for posting again - but BBC Three won Twitter:
https://twitter.com/bbcthree/status/997791204724084736
Meanwhile from Australia to the US, the lead story in many outlets is the wedding, Singapore even picking up that their national flower had been embroidered on the veil, along with the other Commonwealth countries. Nice to have one part of the establishment which can still rise to the occasion...0 -
Wulfrun_Phil said:
Kev doubling down:justin124 said:
And that conduct is being widely reported today. Not quite silence on the matter it turns out, instead he found time to also advise a constituent to "Try Russia Today" as an alternative news source.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.justin124 said:
Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/9980926860779724800 -
It's a complicated issue: under EU rules, you are required to claim asylum in the first country you arrive in. You then need to get EU citizenship in that country. And then - in pre-Brexit days - you could head to the UK.Gadfly said:
That's what I thought, but I never appreciated the Somali specificness. I had imagined that the English language would have attracted most groups.rcs1000 said:
(In the case of the Somalis, albeit no other groups as far as I can tell, then the moment they got Dutch passports they headed for the UK.)Gadfly said:
I am not sure whether arrivals are deemed to be EU citizens upon arrival in their destination country, or only after they have been issued with passports. Either way, I imagine that free movement then entitles them to go and live wherever they want.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
So, the Netherlands is a relatively unusual starting place, with its distinguishing feature being that it gets long haul migrants on freighters arriving into Rotterdam.
Most poor migrants arrive in Greece or Italy, due to there being close geographically to Africa. (Interestingly, Spain - despite being closest of the lot to Africa - does a much better job of discouraging them.)0 -
Somalis do seem to be an exception, but Somalialand was a British Colony, before being incorporated with Italian Somalia into one country.rcs1000 said:
Only after they've been issued with EU passports are they EU citizens.Gadfly said:
I am not sure whether arrivals are deemed to be EU citizens upon arrival in their destination country, or only after they have been issued with passports. Either way, I imagine that free movement then entitles them to go and live wherever they want.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
If you are (say) a Somali migrant in the Netherlands, then until you get a Dutch passport, you're stuck there.
(In the case of the Somalis, albeit no other groups as far as I can tell, then the moment they got Dutch passports they headed for the UK.)
In Leicester we also have a small Lusophone Indian population, who seem to be mostly Mozambican, and a Francophone Maghreb population too, but they are very much the exceptions. Most migration is more direct.0 -
Opinium:
Currently 33% trust the Conservatives most to handle the Brexit negotiations compared to 20% for Labour. The Conservative lead of 13 points on this issue is the largest since the general election.
Interestingly, Remainers have appear to be losing trust in Labour on Brexit. In December 2017 a third (34%) of Remainers trusted Labour most on Brexit while 22% trusted the Tories most. This month only 27% (-7%) trust Labour the most compared to 24% (+2%).for the Conservatives.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-15th-may-2018/
A 12 point Labour lead among Remainers cut to 3 points.....maybe one factor in the overall poll performance....0 -
At a party this evening in Brentwood - a reasonably well off suburb of Los Angeles, but no Bel Air, Beverly Hills or Hancock Park - and all talk was of the royal wedding. Let no one say the UK doesn't export anything.0
-
Re Hancock, it could be fun if only to see PMQs rebranded as “Hancock’s Half Hour”.0
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Morning folks. My FB page seems to be about 30-35% fawning, the same teasing the fawners and the rest about something else entirely!FrankBooth said:
For once I'm in agreement. I don't know what it's like for other people but my entire Facebook feed on the wedding has been unpleasant and unnecessary. Snide remarks about Harry's parentage etc complaints about the fawning BBC coverage.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.
Matt Hancock seems to have suffered from being attached to Osborne and denoted a 'rising star' making little impression. If he's doing a competent job as a minister fair play but from his public appearances he doesn't strike me as convincing.
One at least test for Hancock will be the rollout of faster broadband. There are, I understand, areas of his own constituency where people talk about having what are, effectively, dial-up speeds. And I understand the same applies in parts of Norfiolk. Mine in N Essex gets to about 17mps, which isn’t, in this day and age that good, although since I don’t watch much TV on oit, it’’s OK for me.0 -
rcs - It is strange to me that Italy and Greece seem to have a much bigger problem than Spain.0
-
gingerwanderer said:
Re Hancock, it could be fun if only to see PMQs rebranded as “Hancock’s Half Hour”.
And welcome!0 -
FPT, the Observer (implied) hypothesis that 'Cable is level pegging with May' on approval is horsefeathers - Cable has twice the level of 'Don't Knows' (neither approve nor disapprove):
Approve / Disapprove / Neither
May: 35 / 43 / 23
Corbyn: 29 / 47 / 24
Cable: 19 / 27 / 54
In the 'Among own party' approval ratings (ie Tory voters on May, Labour on Corbyn etd.(net):
May: +66
Corbyn: +57
Cable: +71 (small base)
Sturgeon: +72 (very small base)
Neither Tory nor Labour voters particularly thrilled with their leaders - nor particularly cheesed off either...0 -
Spain also has the most dynamic economy of the three countries.FrankBooth said:rcs - It is strange to me that Italy and Greece seem to have a much bigger problem than Spain.
But here's the thing: there are policies that work to discourage people from turning up, and there are policies that don't.
The ones that work best are often low key (giving visas to those who "rat" on employers who employee illegal immigrants) and are opposed by vested interests, or - for that matter - immigration hardliners ("Give visas! We're practically encouraging them to come here").
0 -
Not while Bercow's in the chair...more like Hancock's 45 minutes.....and welcome too!gingerwanderer said:Re Hancock, it could be fun if only to see PMQs rebranded as “Hancock’s Half Hour”.
0 -
Ah hem; I made that point (as a joke) in the third comment on the last thread.CarlottaVance said:FPT, the Observer (implied) hypothesis that 'Cable is level pegging with May' on approval is horsefeathers - Cable has twice the level of 'Don't Knows' (neither approve nor disapprove):
Approve / Disapprove / Neither
May: 35 / 43 / 23
Corbyn: 29 / 47 / 24
Cable: 19 / 27 / 54
In the 'Among own party' approval ratings (ie Tory voters on May, Labour on Corbyn etd.(net):
May: +66
Corbyn: +57
Cable: +71 (small base)
Sturgeon: +72 (very small base)
Neither Tory nor Labour voters particularly thrilled with their leaders - nor particularly cheesed off either...0 -
Welcome to PB, Mr. Wanderer.0
-
TBQH the surprising thing is that Labour, with its manifest if necessarily convoluted preference for a Brexit quite similar to the government's own programme (one pitched to said government's base as 'Brexit means Brexit,' however dubious that may be) hasn't lost the trust of Remainers a long time ago. Presumably they have been banking on a change of leadership followed by a change of policy, but it's becoming increasingly clear that ain't gonna happen in time to make any meaningful difference.CarlottaVance said:Opinium:
Currently 33% trust the Conservatives most to handle the Brexit negotiations compared to 20% for Labour. The Conservative lead of 13 points on this issue is the largest since the general election.
Interestingly, Remainers have appear to be losing trust in Labour on Brexit. In December 2017 a third (34%) of Remainers trusted Labour most on Brexit while 22% trusted the Tories most. This month only 27% (-7%) trust Labour the most compared to 24% (+2%).for the Conservatives.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-15th-may-2018/
A 12 point Labour lead among Remainers cut to 3 points.....maybe one factor in the overall poll performance....
I also have to say I don't like or rate David Davis, but I'll take him over a dodgy idiot like Starmer any day of the week.0 -
Dr ydoethur,
" ,,, also have to say I don't like or rate David Davis, but I'll take him over a dodgy idiot like Starmer any day of the week."
Starmer comes over to me as 'oily' and reminds me of Kenneth Baker from the spitting image days. Probably totally unfair, but he exudes the same aura.
Reactions about the wedding as expected. Republicans irritated, but from the bits I saw it was less boring than usual. And the Rev Curry definitely the star. The BBC fawning as usual, but a good boost for tourism.
0 -
Hang on a minute - when you refer to QE 'debt' what exactly are you referring to? QE doesn't create a debt. It involves the central bank providing liquidity in return for collateral.rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
I'm only interested in what works.rcs1000 said:
Spain also has the most dynamic economy of the three countries.FrankBooth said:rcs - It is strange to me that Italy and Greece seem to have a much bigger problem than Spain.
But here's the thing: there are policies that work to discourage people from turning up, and there are policies that don't.
The ones that work best are often low key (giving visas to those who "rat" on employers who employee illegal immigrants) and are opposed by vested interests, or - for that matter - immigration hardliners ("Give visas! We're practically encouraging them to come here").0 -
They do. But, have you ever tried sunbathing on a beach in Spain?rcs1000 said:
It's a complicated issue: under EU rules, you are required to claim asylum in the first country you arrive in. You then need to get EU citizenship in that country. And then - in pre-Brexit days - you could head to the UK.Gadfly said:
That's what I thought, but I never appreciated the Somali specificness. I had imagined that the English language would have attracted most groups.rcs1000 said:
(In the case of the Somalis, albeit no other groups as far as I can tell, then the moment they got Dutch passports they headed for the UK.)Gadfly said:
I .rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
So, the Netherlands is a relatively unusual starting place, with its distinguishing feature being that it gets long haul migrants on freighters arriving into Rotterdam.
Most poor migrants arrive in Greece or Italy, due to there being close geographically to Africa. (Interestingly, Spain - despite being closest of the lot to Africa - does a much better job of discouraging them.)
Within about 2 minutes you'll have Africans trying to hawk you sunglasses and cheap watches. And they will repeat this all day long, at regular intervals, even if they know you've said "no" before.
If the Guardia Civil turn up, they scatter to the seven winds.0 -
These people would have been glued to the set from start to finish.FrankBooth said:
For once I'm in agreement. I don't know what it's like for other people but my entire Facebook feed on the wedding has been unpleasant and unnecessary. Snide remarks about Harry's parentage etc complaints about the fawning BBC coverage.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.0 -
A program on TV tonight about a time when the Libs were interesting. Stephen Freers directs the Jeremy Thorpe story. "A Very English Scandal"0
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They are and she is. I would also say Meghan is role perfect. At this level (ie no real danger of ending up head of state) royalty is an act. Harry seems self-aware enough to let his wife do the heavy lifting.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.
I was interested in the comments yesterday about Bishop Michael Curry so dug out his sermon on Youtube. I think he's great and an inspired choice (presumably also Meghan) for the event.0 -
He's pinched my line!CarlottaVance said:John Rentoul:
The prime minister is boiling the Brexiteer frogs: the water is getting hotter and none of them has jumped out of the pan
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-boris-johnson-soft-brexit-customs-a8359371.html0 -
Hancock Is moderate, forward looking and quietly competent. In today’s politics he should 500/1 not 100/1.0
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It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.0 -
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Boy, what a bitter way to talk about it all. I feel like there must be more effective means of making the point.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Kev doubling down:justin124 said:
And that conduct is being widely reported today. Not quite silence on the matter it turns out, instead he found time to also advise a constituent to "Try Russia Today" as an alternative news source.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.justin124 said:
Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/9980926860779724800 -
For which I have little sympathy. I had no intention of watching it and ended up sleeping all afternoon.Casino_Royale said:
These people would have been glued to the set from start to finish.FrankBooth said:
For once I'm in agreement. I don't know what it's like for other people but my entire Facebook feed on the wedding has been unpleasant and unnecessary. Snide remarks about Harry's parentage etc complaints about the fawning BBC coverage.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.0 -
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.0 -
Maybe. Given the Gov shambles it is odd so many trust the tories, but perhaps it is sinking in that Labour and the tories are not a million miles apart in this.CarlottaVance said:Opinium:
Currently 33% trust the Conservatives most to handle the Brexit negotiations compared to 20% for Labour. The Conservative lead of 13 points on this issue is the largest since the general election.
Interestingly, Remainers have appear to be losing trust in Labour on Brexit. In December 2017 a third (34%) of Remainers trusted Labour most on Brexit while 22% trusted the Tories most. This month only 27% (-7%) trust Labour the most compared to 24% (+2%).for the Conservatives.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-15th-may-2018/
A 12 point Labour lead among Remainers cut to 3 points.....maybe one factor in the overall poll performance....0 -
Pass the Duchie on the left hand side.0
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Yes, Bishop Curry was a star. Nice to see a bit of unashamed Christian passion rather than the usual dull Anglican liturgy.FF43 said:
They are and she is. I would also say Meghan is role perfect. At this level (ie no real danger of ending up head of state) royalty is an act. Harry seems self-aware enough to let his wife do the heavy lifting.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.
I was interested in the comments yesterday about Bishop Michael Curry so dug out his sermon on Youtube. I think he's great and an inspired choice (presumably also Meghan) for the event.
Minor Royals are their destiny in terms of line to the throne, but Harry and Meghan will be major celebrities, not least because of the obvious affection and common interests between William and Harry. The continuing transformation of Royalty to Celebrity has reached a new level. Fame and good works now count for more than bloodline, which does fundamentally alter what Royalty is about.
0 -
Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and intelligent too.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning
0 -
Great first post!gingerwanderer said:Re Hancock, it could be fun if only to see PMQs rebranded as “Hancock’s Half Hour”.
Welcome to PB.
0 -
Unfortunately most of the £435bn has now leaked out of the country through spending on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.rcs1000 said:
That's how it works: to inject money into the economy, the Central Bank prints £435bn (not all in one go), and uses it buy government bonds.RobD said:
Yeah, but can't those simply be paid for by printing £435bn?rcs1000 said:
It's introduced through the purchase (by the Central Bank) of government bonds. The result is that (for example) the BOE owns £435bn of Gilts.RobD said:
I thought QE was simply introducing more money into the overall money supply? Where does debt come into it?rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.
This has three first order effects: Firstly, it directly injects £435bn into the economy; Secondly, it lowers the cost of government funding by introducing a purchase who buys irrespective of price; and Thirdly, it allows the government to save on interest (and principle) repayments.
However, it's *real* goal is a second order effect: by making returns on government bonds less attractive (by lowering their returns via primary purpose two), it encourages spending over saving.0 -
Matt Hancock backed Remain.HYUFD said:Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and a former Leaver unlike Hunt and Javid who both backed Remain which will help him with the Tory membership.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning0 -
You win the internet today.gingerwanderer said:Re Hancock, it could be fun if only to see PMQs rebranded as “Hancock’s Half Hour”.
0 -
Y'all need to watch the video in the tweet atop the thread header.0
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It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=190 -
I find him a bit too smooth and a bit insincere. I just find him hard to warm to - but I am sure he is a nice chap. And do we really need another Oxford PPE graduate running the show.....HYUFD said:Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and intelligent too.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning0 -
I think that is more evidence of how leftwing your Facebook followers areFrankBooth said:
For once I'm in agreement. I don't know what it's like for other people but my entire Facebook feed on the wedding has been unpleasant and unnecessary. Snide remarks about Harry's parentage etc complaints about the fawning BBC coverage.AlastairMeeks said:I was busy yesterday and saw none of the Royal wedding. I’ve glanced at the newspaper front pages today and they look a happy couple. Meghan looks lovely in the pictures.
If you don’t like fawning and endless coverage, you can always opt out.
Matt Hancock seems to have suffered from being attached to Osborne and denoted a 'rising star' making little impression. If he's doing a competent job as a minister fair play but from his public appearances he doesn't strike me as convincing.0 -
Katie Hopkins is correct. You can't buy class and she has none.Foxy said:
It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=190 -
I think he maybe a bit too smooth and Cameroon and voters may want something a bit more authentic by 2022 to beat Corbyn but out of Hunt and Javid and Hancock I would say Hancock comes across best and is the best media performerbrendan16 said:
I find him a bit too smooth and a bit insincere. I just find him hard to warm to - but I am sure he is a nice chap. And do we really need another Oxford PPE graduate running the show.....HYUFD said:Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and intelligent too.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning0 -
I don't even know what she's on about. She's put up pictures of 2 very pretty women side by side, am I supposed to notice something about it?Foxy said:
It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=190 -
Africa has the world's fastest growing population and also the fastest growth in religious followers, Nigeria for instance now has more Christians than the UK does.Foxy said:
The concern in Lituania may well be of migration from Belarus and Ukraine, inducing cultural change.rcs1000 said:
I don't disagree with you wrt to Germany's actions in 2015.Cyclefree said:Well, quite a lot of migrants have trecked to Sweden, another country on the edge of Europe and also with an indecipherable language. And this has caused some well reported and serious problems which no sane country would want to have within its own borders.
Perhaps the concern is stimulated by seeing what goes on - or is perceived as going on - in other countries and wanting to avoid it. Germany's actions in 2015 have a lot to answer for. I can provide no proof but I do wonder whether the referendum would have been won by Remain had it not been for Germany's unilateral actions over the migrant crisis.
But Sweden is a rich country, with a generous welfare system, universal English and low unemployment.
Lithuania is a much less well off country, with a limited welfare system, patchy English and medium unemployment.
Unlike in Estonia, where there are now more people returning than leaving, Lithuania continues to suffer from significant emigration. (And emigration lowers demand for housing, which lowers house prices, which means that implicit savings falls, increasing the savings rate, and slowing domestic demand...)
It does show that we need to address migration issues as a Continent though, and consider how best to ameliorate it. This little graphic from one of my favourite tweeters gives a clue why:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/997432109647179781?s=19
Africa has the worlds youngest population, and its fastest growing. Just as you cannot buck the market economically, you cannot buck it demographically.
Expect in future the global Anglican church to look rather more like Michael Curry than Justin Welby
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I am sure it was equally big news in its namesake Brentwood Essex. I expect the local festivities will be covered in a future episode of TOWIE.rcs1000 said:At a party this evening in Brentwood - a reasonably well off suburb of Los Angeles, but no Bel Air, Beverly Hills or Hancock Park - and all talk was of the royal wedding. Let no one say the UK doesn't export anything.
Its fairytale, pomp, carriages and a beautiful castle with an American bride and lots of celebs includIng the Clooneys on display - a classic Hollywood movie. So not surprised the LA crowd lapped it up.0 -
I'm amused to discover you're a reader of the utterances of Katie Hopkins.Foxy said:
It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=190 -
It's the Government debt that the BoE buys using the magic money tree and returns the interest it receives back to the Treasury.archer101au said:
Hang on a minute - when you refer to QE 'debt' what exactly are you referring to? QE doesn't create a debt. It involves the central bank providing liquidity in return for collateral.rcs1000 said:
I find the demand - now rescinded - to write off QE debt to be amusing. Why? Because that debt will be rolled over into perpetuity. There will never be a time when it is in anyone's interest (boom boom) for it to be repaid, or indeed for the central bank to start demanding that interest should be paid. It's phantom debt, that exists on the balance sheet of the ECB.Cyclefree said:
(And for the record, the same is true of BOE QE - that will never be repaid. And BOJ or Federal Reserve debt. It will never be formally written off, but as no repayment will ever be demanded, and as all interest payments are returned, it is of no consequence whatsoever.)
Back to the article in hand, I suspect that the EU will allow a little bit of latitude to the government of Italy. But they - the powers that be in the EU - do have one advantage: people only buy Italian government bonds because they feel they are implicitly backed by the ECB and the EU. And if Italian government bond yields start rising, then the first order effect is that the money available to Five Star diminishes. The second order effect is that Italian banks find it harder to fund themselves, and credit dries up in Italy. Of course, this is a dangerous path for the ECB/EU to go down, but economic reality and Beppe Grillo are about to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens.
McDonnell has cottoned onto it. He'll use it to finance infrastructure spending. Sounds to me a more effective direct use than hoping for the second order effect of lowering the cost of government debt to discourage savers and encourage spenders.0 -
I saw it via retweets such as this:another_richard said:
I'm amused to discover you're a reader of the utterances of Katie Hopkins.Foxy said:
It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=19
https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/997935413351387136?s=190 -
Barry Gardiner tying himself in knots on Marr about his recorded statement that Britain could not secure 'the exact same benefits' as the single market0
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Morning all,HYUFD said:
I think he maybe a bit too smooth and Cameroon and voters may want something a bit more authentic by 2022 to beat Corbyn but out of Hunt and Javid and Hancock I would say Hancock comes across best and is the best media performerbrendan16 said:
I find him a bit too smooth and a bit insincere. I just find him hard to warm to - but I am sure he is a nice chap. And do we really need another Oxford PPE graduate running the show.....HYUFD said:Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and intelligent too.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning
A key competitor is surely Raab? However, I saw him on QT this week, and I thought he came across as very effective and professional, but lacked warmth. Felt a little robotic.
I'm already on Hancock, but might top up by a couple of quid. Thanks TSE.0 -
Emma Barnett much more persistent in her questioning than Andrew Marr ever is.HYUFD said:Barry Gardiner tying himself in knots on Marr about his recorded statement that Britain could not secure 'the exact same benefits' as the single market
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Barry Gardiner very clear on Brexit0
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Blimey, just noticed the Lewisham selection.
Dire result for the Left.
Wow.0 -
Raab is also an outside bet and a former Leaver but both he probably needs to get into the Cabinet and Hancock to get a bigger job in Cabinet before they become real contenders to succeed Mayrottenborough said:
Morning all,HYUFD said:
I think he maybe a bit too smooth and Cameroon and voters may want something a bit more authentic by 2022 to beat Corbyn but out of Hunt and Javid and Hancock I would say Hancock comes across best and is the best media performerbrendan16 said:
I find him a bit too smooth and a bit insincere. I just find him hard to warm to - but I am sure he is a nice chap. And do we really need another Oxford PPE graduate running the show.....HYUFD said:Matt Hancock is certainly a telegenic and smooth figure and intelligent too.
Coincidentally he is first interviewee up on Marr this morning
A key competitor is surely Raab? However, I saw him on QT this week, and I thought he came across as very effective and professional, but lacked warmth. Felt a little robotic.
I'm already on Hancock, but might top up by a couple of quid. Thanks TSE.0 -
Yes, she has been good so farEmptyNester said:
Emma Barnett much more persistent in her questioning than Andrew Marr ever is.HYUFD said:Barry Gardiner tying himself in knots on Marr about his recorded statement that Britain could not secure 'the exact same benefits' as the single market
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Maybe one of the dresses is from Primark?kle4 said:
I don't even know what she's on about. She's put up pictures of 2 very pretty women side by side, am I supposed to notice something about it?Foxy said:
It is the right wing that is giving Meghan the slagging at present:Sean_F said:
Maybe she'll call her a coconut.ydoethur said:
Has anyone opened a book on what the first racist remark Emma Dent Coad will make about the Duchess of Sussex (as I suppose we must now call her) will be?kle4 said:
It is pretty silly. I just cannot wait for the OTT opposite reaction where some one suggests meghan is not black enough or something as she is very light skinned.Cyclefree said:Listening to the radio now, reporting on the papers' analysis of a wedding, there is the most awful and OTT guff being written about its alleged significance. From some of the commentary you'd have thought no-one in the Royal family had ever spoken to a non-white person before.
I hope the couple don't fall into the trap of believing the hype, concentrate on their marriage, family (with luck) and what they can do with the privileges they enjoy.
Enough.
Some exquisite birdsong this morning in my garden. And more glorious weather on the way.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/997841195165454337?s=190
