politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow needs to take inspiration from Arsene Wenger’s exit fro

It is worth bearing in mind that Theresa May is not yet committed public to BINO. Leavers should thus make absolutely clear that control of our laws and control of who gets to permanently migrate here are absolute red lines.

If Leavers are unhappy at compromises beyond that, the smart thing to do is not to throw their hands up and storm off, but to bank the victories they do get (out of political union, freedom of movement, fisheries, agriculture) and keep pushing. Demand the next Tory leader goes further. If they don't, vote against them until they get a leader that does.

welshowl said:

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.

That’s the only route. But it’s a stretch even for the Tory revels because it would rip the party apart, and the country, and they know it. PM Corbyn would result very likely and that ironically may be just the right amount of glue needed for them.

The Tory party would be gutted of its activist and councillor base if it reneged on Brexit.

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.
As to why: in order to rectify the mess Cameron wrought.

She won't when arguably Corbyn is even more committed to Brexit than she is

Mortimer said:

welshowl said:

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.

That’s the only route. But it’s a stretch even for the Tory revels because it would rip the party apart, and the country, and they know it. PM Corbyn would result very likely and that ironically may be just the right amount of glue needed for them.

The Tory party would be gutted of its activist and councillor base if it reneged on Brexit.

The Tory party wouldn't be reneging on Brexit - it would have delivered a workable Brexit deal to the people, and it would be up to the people to decide.

The Tory party is more than just the governing wing of UKIP.

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.
As to why: in order to rectify the mess Cameron wrought.

I still tend to regard it as Heath’s mess that successive PM’s from Major through Brown and Blair did nothing to rectify by seeking our explicit consent for an ever more integrationist path. Cameron was at least trying to diffuse the time bomb ( if cack handedly ) when it went off.

SeanT said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

I'm looking forward to it. I'm going on the march on June 23rd. I hope it equals the Iraq march.

Question: Which foreign leaders are in favour of Brexit?
Answer: Trump to weaken us in trade negotiations. Putin to weaken us militarily.

Stronger Together.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-44129525/trump-helped-europe-lose-its-illusions-says-tusk

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

While I have no doubt that Sam Coates has an inside track, his article doesn't explain what will be done about freedom of movement. The EU have consistently made it clear that the four freedoms are indivisible and that Britain can't be in the single market without freedom of movement. So how is that going to be reconciled?

We are not going to be in the single market, just have some regulatory alignment with it to avoid a hard Brexit in Ireland.

In any case we are owed some concessions on freedom of movement after Blair refused to take the transition controls most EU nations took from 2004 to 2011 on free movement from the new accession nations

It will indeed be exactly what I predicted about 3 days after the referendum. We will end up staying inside “versions” of the CU and SM but they will be called something else to save face. Classic eurofudge.

Where we go from there is the moot point.

If we still can't control the influx of low skill workers or stop the ECJ from deciding our law, it will be a betrayal of the vote. The conservatives should rightly lose to Corbyn at the next election.

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

welshowl said:

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.

That’s the only route. But it’s a stretch even for the Tory revels because it would rip the party apart, and the country, and they know it. PM Corbyn would result very likely and that ironically may be just the right amount of glue needed for them.

The Tory party would be gutted of its activist and councillor base if it reneged on Brexit.

The Tory party wouldn't be reneging on Brexit - it would have delivered a workable Brexit deal to the people, and it would be up to the people to decide.

The Tory party is more than just the governing wing of UKIP.

I salute your indefatigablity.

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

welshowl said:

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.

That’s the only route. But it’s a stretch even for the Tory revels because it would rip the party apart, and the country, and they know it. PM Corbyn would result very likely and that ironically may be just the right amount of glue needed for them.

The Tory party would be gutted of its activist and councillor base if it reneged on Brexit.

The Tory party wouldn't be reneging on Brexit - it would have delivered a workable Brexit deal to the people, and it would be up to the people to decide.

The Tory party is more than just the governing wing of UKIP.

All the electoral logic and all the civil service momentum is with leaving. Yet tonight it seems like RemainersUtd,com on here.

I do worry sometimes that not only are some people unable to come to terms with their view of the country losing, but that they're unable to understand the county AT ALL.

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

welshowl said:

Gardenwalker said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

Why on earth is she going to hold a second referendum? Why?

She’ll be frog marched out of No 10 pronto by the Tory party. They don’t want another round, neither do their voters by and large I’d assume, and really as long as they can muster votes of confidence in the HoC that’s that.

She may be forced to by parliament.

That’s the only route. But it’s a stretch even for the Tory revels because it would rip the party apart, and the country, and they know it. PM Corbyn would result very likely and that ironically may be just the right amount of glue needed for them.

The Tory party would be gutted of its activist and councillor base if it reneged on Brexit.

The Tory party wouldn't be reneging on Brexit - it would have delivered a workable Brexit deal to the people, and it would be up to the people to decide.

The Tory party is more than just the governing wing of UKIP.

Funny we didn’t get referendums on say Maastricht or Lisbon isn’t it? Wonder why Remainers are zealous converts to the cause now? Not one peep of a referendum on the subject in 41 long years and suddenly they want two to come along like busses all at once. Amazing isn’t it?

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.

Mortimer said:

I do worry sometimes that not only are some people unable to come to terms with their view of the country losing, but that they're unable to understand the county AT ALL.

Almost a fair comment. Except I would add that neither side of the debate understands the thinking behind the values of the other side.

welshowl said:

Elliot said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.

I keep thinking of Michael Collins. Get out, it may be imperfect, but get out. Time is then on your side to wedge out step by step more completely.

I agree. 50% of what you want is better than none of it.

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT has replied to the articles in The Times I've been linking to.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/997524710886903808

As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.

If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.

I am still (very slimly) on course...

May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.

I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.

Other countries manage to hold second referendums without too many problems. We've all been on a learning curve over the past 2 years and it's only Conservative voters holding up the "right to Leave" side at the moment. If figures like Boris and Gove switch sides and adopt a more sober tone it will allow people space to reconsider.

If we have a second referendum then Leave will get a bigger win. People really dislike being told they got it wrong and have to try again.

I'd prefer that Megan Markle somehow decided for us that we shouldn't leave the EU rather than a second referendum did. I'm not a fan of royalty particularly, I'm very much not a fan of referendums, but I'm more than anything not a fan of having the same referendum twice. (Whilst the first hasn't been acted upon)

https://twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/997525489328820224

Sean_F said:

welshowl said:

Elliot said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.

I keep thinking of Michael Collins. Get out, it may be imperfect, but get out. Time is then on your side to wedge out step by step more completely.

I agree. 50% of what you want is better than none of it.

Have you by chance ever operated under the pseudonym of Nicholas William Peter Clegg, of Robinson College, Cambridge?

Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.

Mortimer is offering to take 3 months off to campaign, to which I say - good! Democracy in action.

And I keep saying that I think Brexit would win. It would settle the argument for a generation.

I don’t want Brexit to be the only thing this country thinks and talks about for the next 10 years.

Barnesian said:

Mortimer said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As an example of that relishing the opportunity.

I didn't campaign last time. If we were forced into a second referendum, such would be my ire that I'd take 3 months off work, I'd offer my business address as a local HQ, and donate 10x my annual Tory party donation to the Yes Actually Leave Now campaign.

I think a lot of Leavers who voted last time but don't usually vote will think "They ignore us anyway so what's the f'ing point!" and stay at home.

I think there's a real danger that you may be right. It will mean that democracy is dead, for those people at least. If they want anything to change, ever, it will be no good trying the ballot box route. That has failed them, proven beyond all doubt.

What other routes does that open up? I find that frightening.

My hope would be that such people realise that their vote has the power to change things and that being asked to vote again proves the power of their vote.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

Gardenwalker said:

Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.

Mortimer is offering to take 3 months off to campaign, to which I say - good! Democracy in action.

And I keep saying that I think Brexit would win. It would settle the argument for a generation.

I don’t want Brexit to be the only thing this country thinks and talks about for the next 10 years.

1) Democracy: We've already had a referendum where the Govt. told the people that they would follow their wishes. They've yet to follow their wishes and leave the EU.

2) Practicality: What does a good result look like? If it is Yes Actually Leave, the Remainers won't be happy. If it is Actually don't Leave, the Brexiteers won't be happy.

3, for about the thousandth time on here, and perhaps most importantly) Politics: It encourages the EU to give us a bad deal, and Remainers to conspire with the EU on this.

Gardenwalker said:

Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.

Mortimer is offering to take 3 months off to campaign, to which I say - good! Democracy in action.

And I keep saying that I think Brexit would win. It would settle the argument for a generation.

I don’t want Brexit to be the only thing this country thinks and talks about for the next 10 years.

To be fair you should suggest 'Lets have a referendum on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit.'

If you want to propose such a thing then I think it's fair enough, but as I said earlier in the thread I think that Referendums are not the way to go.

'Let's just vote again because we didn't like the result' is just a catastrophe.

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.

Mortimer is offering to take 3 months off to campaign, to which I say - good! Democracy in action.

And I keep saying that I think Brexit would win. It would settle the argument for a generation.

I don’t want Brexit to be the only thing this country thinks and talks about for the next 10 years.

To be fair you should suggest 'Lets have a referendum on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit.'

If you want to propose such a thing then I think it's fair enough, but as I said earlier in the thread I think that Referendums are not the way to go.

'Let's just vote again because we didn't like the result' is just a catastrophe.

That’s not my argument.
My argument is the the referendum last time was based on delusions. Both sides are now older and wider, and we actually have a substantive option to consider - not the nonsense conjured up by Osborne and Johnson respectively.

So let’s do it. Let’s have a referendum on the deal.

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Probably because they've realised the reality of Brexit is a million miles away from their fantasy vision.

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Because David Davis is as useful as a marzipan dildo.

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Because they had to choose between fact and fantasy? As per the tweet upthread, NOTHING predicted or claimed by the Brexit gang has come true.

Because Theresa May and Remain have been calling the shots and have made sure those predictions didn't or couldn't come true...

The establishment have sabotaged Brexit from within... But we'll have our revenge on the establishment when we vote en-masse for Corbyn who will then take a wrecking ball to the whole rotten edifice.

What - Theresa “couldn’t manage her way out of a paper bag” May?

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Because they had to choose between fact and fantasy? As per the tweet upthread, NOTHING predicted or claimed by the Brexit gang has come true.

Because Theresa May and Remain have been calling the shots and have made sure those predictions didn't or couldn't come true...

The establishment have sabotaged Brexit from within... But we'll have our revenge on the establishment when we vote en-masse for Corbyn who will then take a wrecking ball to the whole rotten edifice.

Didn't you used to be a Conservative, GIN?

My voting record:

1997 - Labour (Who didn't? )

2001 - (Didn't vote - Could see Blair was going power mad and Con had William Hague... Enough said))

2005 - Lib-Dem (Iraq)

2010 - Con (Get Brown Out)

2015 - Con (Keep Lab out)

2017 - Con (I believed Theresa...)

2022 - Lab ???? (Revenge on Con for ignoring my instructions in the referendum)

Omnium said:

Sean_F said:

welshowl said:

Elliot said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.

I keep thinking of Michael Collins. Get out, it may be imperfect, but get out. Time is then on your side to wedge out step by step more completely.

I agree. 50% of what you want is better than none of it.

Have you by chance ever operated under the pseudonym of Nicholas William Peter Clegg, of Robinson College, Cambridge?

Never heard of him.

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

"Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects
5h5 hours ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 38% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
[Oth]: 4% (-2)

via @YouGov, 13 - 14 May"

twitter.com/britainelects/status/997458152139509760

This is the 5th YouGov poll in a row with almost identical figures. Four of them were 43/38 and one 42/38.

On UNS that would see a Tory majority of about 14, gaining 17 seats from Labour but losing 2 to the LDs

We've now had 20 polls and only one Labour lead over the last two months.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

GIN1138 said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Because they had to choose between fact and fantasy? As per the tweet upthread, NOTHING predicted or claimed by the Brexit gang has come true.

Because Theresa May and Remain have been calling the shots and have made sure those predictions didn't or couldn't come true...

The establishment have sabotaged Brexit from within... But we'll have our revenge on the establishment when we vote en-masse for Corbyn who will then take a wrecking ball to the whole rotten edifice.

Didn't you used to be a Conservative, GIN?

My voting record:

1997 - Labour (Who didn't? )

2001 - (Didn't vote - Could see Blair was going power mad and Con had William Hague... Enough said))

2005 - Lib-Dem (Iraq)

2010 - Con (Get Brown Out)

2015 - Con (Keep Lab out)

2017 - Con (I believed Theresa...)

2022 - Lab ???? (Revenge on Con for ignoring my instructions in the referendum)

Fair enough - a proper swinger! I'll update my PB Poster database accordingly

Barnesian said:

AnneJGP said:

Barnesian said:

Mortimer said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As an example of that relishing the opportunity.

I didn't campaign last time. If we were forced into a second referendum, such would be my ire that I'd take 3 months off work, I'd offer my business address as a local HQ, and donate 10x my annual Tory party donation to the Yes Actually Leave Now campaign.

I think a lot of Leavers who voted last time but don't usually vote will think "They ignore us anyway so what's the f'ing point!" and stay at home.

I think there's a real danger that you may be right. It will mean that democracy is dead, for those people at least. If they want anything to change, ever, it will be no good trying the ballot box route. That has failed them, proven beyond all doubt.

What other routes does that open up? I find that frightening.

My hope would be that such people realise that their vote has the power to change things and that being asked to vote again proves the power of their vote.

I think they'll just revert to not voting. What's the point. No other consequence. They'll get on with lives.

A way of disenfranchising by stealth? De-motivate the potential voters who've shown themselves not of your opinion?

I gather some firms indulge in de-training unwanted staff so that they get fed up & resign, without the firm having to pay redundancy or get involved in tribunals.

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Sean_F said:

welshowl said:

Elliot said:

MaxPB said:

One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.

I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.

To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.

As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.

I keep thinking of Michael Collins. Get out, it may be imperfect, but get out. Time is then on your side to wedge out step by step more completely.

I agree. 50% of what you want is better than none of it.

Have you by chance ever operated under the pseudonym of Nicholas William Peter Clegg, of Robinson College, Cambridge?

Never heard of him.

I congratulate you on having made precisely the right response.

Barnesian said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally I am in Sardinia as I write this (and rather pleasant it is). Worth noting that Italy has just elected a properly eurosceptic Coalition.

And I mean proper. Not some milksop whingey fake sceptic Berlusconi bullshit. These guys are actively anti-Brussels. They hate the austerity imposed by Berlin and the euro.

Italy is not happy with the EU.

The idea we face some united European monolith is nonsense.

I'd like to see them create a parallel currency to the Euro. That's what the Greeks should have done.

The trouble is that their debt is denominated in Euros. But yes, they ought to somehow untangle themselves from the Eurozone.

AndyJS said:

NickPalmer said:

Actually I see my polite lack of interest is generally shared - two thirds of the public aren't interested in the wedding (with little difference between the parties) and dislike it getting public funding, though they like the Queen and would not favour abolishing the monarchy (though only 30% feel strongly).

https://www.republic.org.uk/sites/default/files/Republic_MonarchyResults_180511.pdf

IMO it's annoying that broadcasters like Channel 4 News and the BBC, who are usually relatively sceptical about traditional institutions like the monarchy, seem to suddenly adopt a obsessive interest in the royal family whenever a wedding is about to take place. You would expect the Daily Mail and Express to be like that but not the BBC.

Oh for God’s sake! Chill. It’s once in a blue moon. The last one was 7 years ago. Why not? It’s fun to watch and the pageantry is something we’re actually good at.

We have to put up with endless bloody football on the tele or snooker or other dull, incomprehensible sports we’re crap at. More people enjoy gardening than almost any other activity and yet we have to have the only TV programme dedicated to it taken off the schedules to accommodate some bloody minority sport.

If you’re not interested, go for a walk. The TV schedules will be full of dreary garbage suitable for misanthropes again soon enough........

Gardenwalker said:

Barnesian said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally I am in Sardinia as I write this (and rather pleasant it is). Worth noting that Italy has just elected a properly eurosceptic Coalition.

And I mean proper. Not some milksop whingey fake sceptic Berlusconi bullshit. These guys are actively anti-Brussels. They hate the austerity imposed by Berlin and the euro.

Italy is not happy with the EU.

The idea we face some united European monolith is nonsense.

I'd like to see them create a parallel currency to the Euro. That's what the Greeks should have done.

The trouble is that their debt is denominated in Euros. But yes, they ought to somehow untangle themselves from the Eurozone.

The strong countries should create the parallel currency, and the debt would be domimated in the weak one.

But they won't do it because it would be a backwards step for European integration and that comes before all else.

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Gardenwalker said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

David Davis had his chance. They all did.
And the inevitable happened.

Theresa May (remain) teamed up with Ollie Robbins (remain ultra) and Hammond (remain ultra) to force Davis out of the scene...

I don't know why David Davis didn't walk. In fact I don't know why all the Brexiteers don't walk and bring down the government.

Because they had to choose between fact and fantasy? As per the tweet upthread, NOTHING predicted or claimed by the Brexit gang has come true.

Because Theresa May and Remain have been calling the shots and have made sure those predictions didn't or couldn't come true...

The establishment have sabotaged Brexit from within... But we'll have our revenge on the establishment when we vote en-masse for Corbyn who will then take a wrecking ball to the whole rotten edifice.

Didn't you used to be a Conservative, GIN?

My voting record:

1997 - Labour (Who didn't? )

2001 - (Didn't vote - Could see Blair was going power mad and Con had William Hague... Enough said))

2005 - Lib-Dem (Iraq)

2010 - Con (Get Brown Out)

2015 - Con (Keep Lab out)

2017 - Con (I believed Theresa...)

2022 - Lab ???? (Revenge on Con for ignoring my instructions in the referendum)

Fair enough - a proper swinger! I'll update my PB Poster database accordingly

surby said:

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

In response to @Morris_Dancer (fpt), who said this:

“Mr. Max, one has the sneaking suspicion it's mostly women who are into the wedding, because they're more into weddings generally. Be interesting to get some polling on that.”

You don’t need polling. Women are sensible people (someone has to be!) and we understand that it is love, marriage and families which are the important things in life. Not silly nonsense like Brexit.

Although 54% of women say they aren't interested in the wedding (though I grant you that 79% of men say the same):

https://www.republic.org.uk/sites/default/files/Republic_MonarchyResults_180511.pdf

The findings are consistent across all age groups, polical preferences and regions. Some people like this sort of thing, most don't really care. Probably true of most things...

The percentage "uninterested" seems to be larger this time despite wall to wall coverage across all channels.

Relative to other such weddings, this one appears to me to be more "interesting".

Last time around, though, the wedding was at least of some constitutional importance. The chances of Harry or any of his offspring becoming monarch seem so remote as to allow us to treat this wedding with the good-natured polite indifference that we treat most weddings of strangers with.

Granted, maybe people aren't necessarily decide on their interest in something base don their constitutional importance.

My very minor beef with this whole palaver is that ardent royalists assume we're all interested. I'm interested in rugby. I love the 6 nations, it's the highlight of my televisual year. But I don't assume everyone else shares my interest, nor express incredulity when other's don't know which weekend England are playing Wales. I don't mind the wedding, I wish them well, I don't even mind the coverage, but I bristle very slightly when it is assumed that I will be watching and will have an opinion, apart from the vaguely that's-nice-for-them opinion that any reasonable person would have about any pair of strangers getting married.

All that said, this is a very minor grumble. If people like watching royal weddings, I really don't mind.

AnneJGP said:

A way of disenfranchising by stealth? De-motivate the potential voters who've shown themselves not of your opinion?

I gather some firms indulge in de-training unwanted staff so that they get fed up & resign, without the firm having to pay redundancy or get involved in tribunals.

Horrid. It's apparently a recognised though clearly unpleasant political strategy in the US - "voter suppression" by encouraging disillusion among people who won't vote for you. I've heard that there has been some interest in it at Tory Central Office, though that's an unconfirmed rumour.

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/997521975999418370

No but... When they made those predictions nobody in their right mind could have foreseen Theresa May would finish up leading the negotiations...

We thought we couldn't find a worse negotiator than Cameron... And then we did...

True she does not play poker but prefers snap.

O/T

Sad news: https://news.sky.com/story/live-plane-crashes-at-havana-airport-in-cuba-11377818

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

It's unseemly for the Speaker to say so though.

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!

Benpointer said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!

It doesn't matter that it's the truth. The role of speaker is supposed to be impartial.

GIN1138 said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Would you be so relaxed if he called Emily Thornberry a "stupid woman" ?

Presumably you have no problem with the Speaker throwing out personal abuse from the Speakers chair to any MP whenever he feels like it?

Could there be any possibility of sponsorship in this?

A clear statement of fact by a clear voice, for example 'Ms Thornberry, you're a stupid woman', perhaps conducted once every 24hrs, and twice on sundays, would I feel go some way to me making peace with the universe.

Mr G, your'e on to something!

AndyJS said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

It's unseemly for the Speaker to say so though.

He's alleged to have calld Leadsom a stupid woman under his breath; hardly a sackable offence. Smacks of another doomed attempt by the Tories to eject him following the 2015 fiasco.

Benpointer said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!

That's a rather odd attitude hold if I may say so. While it comes as no surprise to hear allegations that Bercow is a prat I don't think it's the sort of thing that would lead to him being forced to resign either, but for all we political anoraks like to mock and belittle MPs, and many deserve it, it is surely not really the job of the Speaker to lambast people on a personal level? Getting a bit theatrical at people chuntering from sedentary positions seems like a personal style some Speakers may want to go for, but being overtly hostile about MPs on a personal level doesn't feel right.

GIN1138 said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Would you be so relaxed if he called Emily Thornberry a "stupid woman" ?

Presumably you have no problem with the Speaker throwing out personal abuse from the Speakers chair to any MP whenever he feels like it?

No. I would not want him to call T May a stupid woman either. Certainly not Heidi Allen.

But Loathsome is different. She said she would make a better PM compared to May because she was a mother!

SeanT said:

ps

Here In Italy, looking at CNN’s coverage of the wedding I’d say that, incidentally, the images of a beautiful, sunlit Windsor and regal London are probably worth about a billion to the British tourist industry.

I think that's a fair point Sean. I'm no monarchist but I suspect they are a net contributor to the UK economy given the tourism they generate.

surby said:

Nemtynakht said:

Benpointer said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!

It doesn't matter that it's the truth. The role of speaker is supposed to be impartial.

No Speaker has backed backbenchers more than Bercow. What exactly is his crime ? He called Loathsome "stupid", right ? So you want him to lie instead ?

His support of backbenchers is a positive, to be sure. But it's not about lying - there's no need for him to personally insult MPs in that way. It's not like it's resignation worthy on its own, but I am flabbergasted at the idea 'it's the truth' is a defence. Lots of MPs are stupid and useless no doubt, should the Speaker start naming and shaming them at the end of each parliamentary day? It's unnecessary, and belittles his position more than the object of his ire.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Fenman said:

Cynosarges said:

The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.

Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.

Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!

That's a rather odd attitude hold if I may say so. While it comes as no surprise to hear allegations that Bercow is a prat I don't think it's the sort of thing that would lead to him being forced to resign either, but for all we political anoraks like to mock and belittle MPs, and many deserve it, it is surely not really the job of the Speaker to lambast people on a personal level? Getting a bit theatrical at people chuntering from sedentary positions seems like a personal style some Speakers may want to go for, but being overtly hostile about MPs on a personal level doesn't feel right.

Even his accusers seem to be saying it was an off-the-cuff aside. Those who have long had Bercow in their sights are bigging this up imho.