I get to vote in the Lewisham East by-election next month - sadly may not be a reliable guide to the feeling on the ground living in SE Spain full-time However, we can offer at least 2 Tory votes by post.
Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.
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To be fair you should suggest 'Lets have a referendum on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit.'
If you want to propose such a thing then I think it's fair enough, but as I said earlier in the thread I think that Referendums are not the way to go.
'Let's just vote again because we didn't like the result' is just a catastrophe.
That’s not my argument. My argument is the the referendum last time was based on delusions. Both sides are now older and wider, and we actually have a substantive option to consider - not the nonsense conjured up by Osborne and Johnson respectively.
So let’s do it. Let’s have a referendum on the deal.
I do like 'older and wider' - even though it's a mistype
Perhaps you're right, and perhaps the bulk of the referendum votes were based on delusions. Why should the next referendum be otherwise?
There really is no place to go if you start re-running votes. Perhaps we should re-run GE2017. Labour then would win?! I think that it's probably true. But are you going to re-run it again when the Tories point out that GE2017mk2 - if our vote paid attention then we'd win, and sure enough they do.
We’ll we “re-run” elections every 5 years. But the point is that it’s not a re-run. We will have a concrete deal on the table.
Let the people have their say.
A second referendum would be ludicrously dangerous, a total insult to the voter. Because it would actively confirm why so many voted Leave - the EU doesn’t care about democracy, it just makes you vote again until you agree with what the EU wants; so it will just prove that the UK’s democracy is a charade, like Ireland’s or Holland’s or France’s.
Your vote only counts when the elite in Brussels agrees with you. The plebs are only counted when their social and intellectual superiors see fit.
Fuck that shit. England has been around 1500 years. We don’t bend the knee. We may get a shit deal, who cares. The long, traumatic, but glorious history of hard-won English and British democracy is worth more than a putative 3% fall in potential GDP over a generation. Get a grip.
The EU will not be calling the second referendum. Our SOVEREIGN Parliament will.
This time what will be written on the ballot paper will be:
"Having heard all the lies............. , do you wish to leave or remain in the EU"
As I have said repeatedly we wont end up leaving the EU at all.
If this is BINO then that doesn't count for my prediction. But BINO will probably bring May's government down and then who knows; 2nd ref etc etc.
I am still (very slimly) on course...
May's allowed Brexit to self-destruct pretty skillfully. Now we're at the stage where erstwhile Leavers will start saying there's no point and we'll end up having a second referendum which will settle the issue.
I would say though that a 2nd referendum takes us into very dangerous territory as far as division in the country is concerned.
I'm looking forward to it. I'm going on the march on June 23rd. I hope it equals the Iraq march.
Question: Which foreign leaders are in favour of Brexit? Answer: Trump to weaken us in trade negotiations. Putin to weaken us militarily.
While I have no doubt that Sam Coates has an inside track, his article doesn't explain what will be done about freedom of movement. The EU have consistently made it clear that the four freedoms are indivisible and that Britain can't be in the single market without freedom of movement. So how is that going to be reconciled?
We are not going to be in the single market, just have some regulatory alignment with it to avoid a hard Brexit in Ireland.
In any case we are owed some concessions on freedom of movement after Blair refused to take the transition controls most EU nations took from 2004 to 2011 on free movement from the new accession nations
It will indeed be exactly what I predicted about 3 days after the referendum. We will end up staying inside “versions” of the CU and SM but they will be called something else to save face. Classic eurofudge.
Where we go from there is the moot point.
That's what I predicted too.
In fact I took part in a debate before the referendum and made the point that even if Leave won, it would end up as BINO as the least worst solution. This would suck the air out of British politics for years to the detriment of more pressing problems such as housing and health.
To be fair this would reflect the referendum result pretty accurately.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
That's a rather odd attitude hold if I may say so. While it comes as no surprise to hear allegations that Bercow is a prat I don't think it's the sort of thing that would lead to him being forced to resign either, but for all we political anoraks like to mock and belittle MPs, and many deserve it, it is surely not really the job of the Speaker to lambast people on a personal level? Getting a bit theatrical at people chuntering from sedentary positions seems like a personal style some Speakers may want to go for, but being overtly hostile about MPs on a personal level doesn't feel right.
Even his accusers seem to be saying it was an off-the-cuff aside. Those who have long had Bercow in their sights are bigging this up imho.
I think the Leadsom incident is relatively minor in itself but it seems to confirm a long-standing pattern of behaviour.
The allegations against him from his staff and his refusal to be transparent with investigators is what will do for him in the end though, IMO.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
That's a rather odd attitude hold if I may say so. While it comes as no surprise to hear allegations that Bercow is a prat I don't think it's the sort of thing that would lead to him being forced to resign either, but for all we political anoraks like to mock and belittle MPs, and many deserve it, it is surely not really the job of the Speaker to lambast people on a personal level? Getting a bit theatrical at people chuntering from sedentary positions seems like a personal style some Speakers may want to go for, but being overtly hostile about MPs on a personal level doesn't feel right.
Even his accusers seem to be saying it was an off-the-cuff aside. Those who have long had Bercow in their sights are bigging this up imho.
I have no doubt that is the case, hence why I don't think it will lead to his resigning, but that has no bearing on whether it was ok to say because it was 'true'. The truth of his comment seems to me to be irrelevant. I'm not calling for his head for behaving like a cock, though after his pathetic actions around recruitment of a new clerk I will shed no tears for him when he goes, but that people are making a mountain out of this does not mean Leadsom deserved it.
The EU will not be calling the second referendum. Our SOVEREIGN Parliament will.
This time what will be written on the ballot paper will be:
"Having heard all the lies............. , do you wish to leave or remain in the EU"
Ah, the 'people were too stupid to get what we were saying last time, so let's have another go' gambit.
I would stress I have not opposed a second referendum of some stripe if there is a shift of opinion to justify it, but there often seems to be this unspoken assumption that a second referendum, whatever the outcome, will both go smoothly and solve our vicious divisions.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
Local government was an easy target as no one likes it, and it did indeed have plenty of fat to trim, but has been cut too far now. The government clearly recognise this given social care grants and temporary exemptions from needing to call referendums on more than 2% rises in council tax (allowing some places to raise it 6% without such a referendum). But in plenty of other areas of expenditure more could have been done.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
Why are Leavers so anti a referendum on the deal? They seem confident of winning.
Mortimer is offering to take 3 months off to campaign, to which I say - good! Democracy in action.
And I keep saying that I think Brexit would win. It would settle the argument for a generation.
I don’t want Brexit to be the only thing this country thinks and talks about for the next 10 years.
To be fair you should suggest 'Lets have a referendum on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit.'
If you want to propose such a thing then I think it's fair enough, but as I said earlier in the thread I think that Referendums are not the way to go.
'Let's just vote again because we didn't like the result' is just a catastrophe.
That’s not my argument. My argument is the the referendum last time was based on delusions. Both sides are now older and wider, and we actually have a substantive option to consider - not the nonsense conjured up by Osborne and Johnson respectively.
So let’s do it. Let’s have a referendum on the deal.
I do like 'older and wider' - even though it's a mistype
Perhaps you're right, and perhaps the bulk of the referendum votes were based on delusions. Why should the next referendum be otherwise?
There really is no place to go if you start re-running votes. Perhaps we should re-run GE2017. Labour then would win?! I think that it's probably true. But are you going to re-run it again when the Tories point out that GE2017mk2 - if our vote paid attention then we'd win, and sure enough they do.
We’ll we “re-run” elections every 5 years. But the point is that it’s not a re-run. We will have a concrete deal on the table.
Let the people have their say.
I didn’t get one over Lisbon, or Maastricht, or Nice, or Amsterdam. I had to wait till I was past 50 before anyone asked me about Europe. Then I’m asked, give my answer and then suddenly because I gave the “wrong” answer with17.4 million others I have to vote again because your lot suddenly have decided referendums are great having denied me any chance whatsoever to have a say for decades.
You can doubtless feel how impressed I am. It’s the epitome of the undemocratic nature of the EU: keep voting till you vote in favour of the EU then the music stops and that’s that. No, no, no.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
It doesn't matter that it's the truth. The role of speaker is supposed to be impartial.
No Speaker has backed backbenchers more than Bercow. What exactly is his crime ? He called Loathsome "stupid", right ? So you want him to lie instead ?
And you're happy for similar abuse to be levelled at Labour women are you?
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
Not bothered really.
I am astonished. You seriously would not be bothered for such a senior politician to just start throwing around personal public insults at others? I wouldn't think that reasonable even toward an opponent. Online supporters of various sides, sure. But the senior figures themselves?
If you are happy for Bercow to call Abbott that or Leadsom the other thing, then you are in effect saying Corbyn and May should do the same. And while senior figures do cross the line like that at times, they face criticism for it and should continue to do so.
The level of our political discourse is not great, but I'd think we'd all hope it doesn't get even worse by not caring about such things, even if we would not want to get carried away and start enforcing resignations for cockish utterances.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
Not bothered really.
I am astonished. You seriously would not be bothered for such a senior politician to just start throwing around personal public insults at others? I wouldn't think that reasonable even toward an opponent. Online supporters of various sides, sure. But the senior figures themselves?
If you are happy for Bercow to call Abbott that or Leadsom the other thing, then you are in effect saying Corbyn and May should do the same. And while senior figures do cross the line like that at times, they face criticism for it and should continue to do so.
The level of our political discourse is not great, but I'd think we'd all hope it doesn't get even worse by not caring about such things, even if we would not want to get carried away and start enforcing resignations for cockish utterances.
You misunderstand. I would not be bothered if Bercow made a similar off-the-cuff aside about any senior politician from any party. It seems to me no more reprehensible than any of the numerous Johnson gaffes and he's not resigned. Bercow's reported comment was pretty mild tbh, and there's no suggestion it was intended for wider broadcast.
Senior leaders of the Conservative party have long been upset that Bercow hasn't sided with them but rather has upheld the rights of the HoC; they will not be content until he is gone.
The tradition is that the Speaker is dragged to the chair. Bercow appears determined to reverse the procedure by refusing to go until he is dragged FROM the chair.
Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
Ok - how about Diane Abbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
Not bothered really.
If you are happy for Bercow to call Abbott that or Leadsom the other thing, then you are in effect saying Corbyn and May should do the same. And while senior figures do cross the line like that at times, they face criticism for it and should continue to do so.
The level of our political discourse is not great, but I'd think we'd all hope it doesn't get even worse by not caring about such things, even if we would not want to get carried away and start enforcing resignations for cockish utterances.
You misunderstand. I would not be bothered if Bercow made a similar off-the-cuff aside about any senior politician from any party. .
On the contrary, I understood perfectly, since it is that which I was astonished by - that you have no problem with senior politicians, of any side, throwing around personal insults in public.
As I think i made very clear I don't think his comment is resignation worthy, and I agreed that his opponents were using it because of their wider dislike of him. I don't see what that has to do with that making it ok to make those kind of comments, since as I said that means you are ok with May or Corbyn or whoever to start doing it.
Let's have May stand up at the next PMQs, then as she sits down have her say 'That Abbott is a right stupid twat', or have Corbyn sit down and comment to McDonnell 'That Javid is as thick as two short planks, isn't he, the useless git'.
By your logic because those are insulting but still mild comments, not intended for public consumption, that is totally ok. After all, it's only Corbynites/Tories who hate May/Corbyn who will be complaining because they don't like them, right?
For someone who generally comes across as reasonable and understanding, without disguising deep political disagreement with people, it shocked me that you defend personal insults on the basis of 'Well, the people complaining just don't like the man, and he didn't mean to be overheard'. Those are incredibly lame defences you see from spin doctors, and for all there is no need to overreact to Bercow's comments, and recognise his opponents do seek to force him out, that surprises me.
One thing I think remainers who want a second referendum haven't taken into account is a second leave victory.
I think another referendum would result in another narrow win for leave. That vote would destroy any chance of remaining or even rejoining.
To me the second ref is a case of be careful what you wish for, at least in terms of remainers. I would personally relish the opportunity to win again. And I'm certain we would.
As long as Leavers take the position of "It is flawed but vote Leave again as the first step for a real Brexit" it would win. The danger is people like Farage calling for Remain votes to get his relevance and MEP salary back.
I keep thinking of Michael Collins. Get out, it may be imperfect, but get out. Time is then on your side to wedge out step by step more completely.
I agree. 50% of what you want is better than none of it.
Indeed. I always thought a version of EEA/EFTA was the best route out. And that, I think, is where we are headed. It’s not ideal, for a while it will mean we arguably have LESS sovereignty (certainly in some areas) but the point is, for the first time in 50 years the ratchet willl have been reversed. As the EU Federalises, or collapses, we will be legally outside, and the trajectory from there can only be towards more independence. Just as voting IN or STAY in 1975 led to decades of integration.
We need to tip toe out the back door very slowly and carefully, rather than jumping out of the window. But the direction and intention is the same.
That's pretty much the way I see it. Out is out. No MEPs, no meetings of Ministers, no more time wasted playing stupid EU games. We walk away, the pace is secondary.
Comments
This time what will be written on the ballot paper will be:
"Having heard all the lies............. , do you wish to leave or remain in the EU"
The allegations against him from his staff and his refusal to be transparent with investigators is what will do for him in the end though, IMO.
I would stress I have not opposed a second referendum of some stripe if there is a shift of opinion to justify it, but there often seems to be this unspoken assumption that a second referendum, whatever the outcome, will both go smoothly and solve our vicious divisions.
That strikes me as very very optimisitc.
You can doubtless feel how impressed I am. It’s the epitome of the undemocratic nature of the EU: keep voting till you vote in favour of the EU then the music stops and that’s that. No, no, no.
If you are happy for Bercow to call Abbott that or Leadsom the other thing, then you are in effect saying Corbyn and May should do the same. And while senior figures do cross the line like that at times, they face criticism for it and should continue to do so.
The level of our political discourse is not great, but I'd think we'd all hope it doesn't get even worse by not caring about such things, even if we would not want to get carried away and start enforcing resignations for cockish utterances.
Senior leaders of the Conservative party have long been upset that Bercow hasn't sided with them but rather has upheld the rights of the HoC; they will not be content until he is gone.
As I think i made very clear I don't think his comment is resignation worthy, and I agreed that his opponents were using it because of their wider dislike of him. I don't see what that has to do with that making it ok to make those kind of comments, since as I said that means you are ok with May or Corbyn or whoever to start doing it.
Let's have May stand up at the next PMQs, then as she sits down have her say 'That Abbott is a right stupid twat', or have Corbyn sit down and comment to McDonnell 'That Javid is as thick as two short planks, isn't he, the useless git'.
By your logic because those are insulting but still mild comments, not intended for public consumption, that is totally ok. After all, it's only Corbynites/Tories who hate May/Corbyn who will be complaining because they don't like them, right?
For someone who generally comes across as reasonable and understanding, without disguising deep political disagreement with people, it shocked me that you defend personal insults on the basis of 'Well, the people complaining just don't like the man, and he didn't mean to be overheard'. Those are incredibly lame defences you see from spin doctors, and for all there is no need to overreact to Bercow's comments, and recognise his opponents do seek to force him out, that surprises me.