Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this ye

With all the machination that are going on within the cabinet over the divisions on Brexit it is perhaps no wonder that here has been renewed interest on betting that she’ll be out this year.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Regarding her campaigning skills also do not forget she still got the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher in 1983 despite the dementia tax debacle and Merkel for example failed to win a majority for her Coalition on her first attempt but did do on her second
Michael Howard was confirmed as successor to IDS within a week of the VONC.
Not that this will necessarily affect the timing.
Dave's original plan was to stand down by Autumn 2019 to give his successor time to bed in for the 2020 general election.
So eight months minimum and 20 months max.
https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/997032514823770112?s=21
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/997153932232351744
But that would need an extensive bank of content daily, which newspapers by and large have chosen to eschew obtaining.
2019 is a different story but 2019 is a lifetime away yet.
It is bitterly ironic that in the age of the Equality Act, our public authorities are effectually abandoning the rule of law in certain parts of the country.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/949647021480214528
Though Hungarian voters may be more enthusiastic, Hungarian PM Orban has said 'Hungary will not join the Euro for many decades to come'
http://hungarianfreepress.com/2015/06/03/orban-hungary-will-not-adopt-the-euro-for-many-decades-to-come/
There will be similar happening in agriculture, construction and various low grade service sectors.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/skeptic-hungary-can-t-resist-euro-pull-forever-top-banker-says
Hungary may adopt the euro sooner than its government is willing to admit, as Europe’s renewed integration drive pulls even countries reluctant to join into the common currency, the nation’s top banker said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44148027
IIRC John Major didn't want the election to coincide with Euro 1992 remembering the government losing the 1970 election and the blame being put on England losing a few days before polling day.
Of course, as Hungary is more of a tourist destination than Poland that probably makes sense.
1. She decides she's had enough. She and Philip would prefer to go walking together in the hills than suffer the continual stress. I see no sign of this. Probability < 5%
2. There is a Conservative MP vote of no confidence in her leadership (probability < 33%) and she loses it (probability < 20%) so total probability <7%
3. There is a Labour led vote of no confidence in her Government (probability 50%) and she loses it (probability < 10% in spite of Brexit concessions) so total probability < 5%.
At 32% chance, it is a lay.
https://citizens4britain.org/its-too-late-theresa/
If Mrs May wants to try and unite the Party then the best way would be to let our MPs have a free vote or alternatively to let the people decide whether we should accept the deal with the EU or stay in. A free vote or a people’s vote could be the one chance May has to save her government, her job and our party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_1990
Mrs May just has to win one round by a simple majority. If she does, and she will by a large majority, she will carry on, strengthened sufficiently to sort out her cabinet. Her opponents know this, so they will not have the courage to actually trigger the vote. It's not like Mrs T at all.
You get a couple in the Sunday Times. I always read Tim Shipman and Christina Lamb, for example.
Utter nonsense. It would encourage the EU to offer the worst possible terms imaginable in order to make it more than likely that the UK would capitulate and stay in.
To describe it as otherwise is simply dishonest.
Incidentally I continue to be bewildered at the sheer number of Remainers who appear to actually want us to crash out with no deal but that's a separate issue.
So if a vote were held and she even won by one vote, her position would ironically be strengthened by it very considerably (as surely we all realise she's not going to last much beyond the end of next year).
They don't want a "Take the deal or crash out" vote, they want a take the deal or stay in vote. "Stay in" requires retraction of the Art. 50 notice, which I think would actually be a runner given that 1. the EU would probably acquiesce in the withdrawal and 2. if it didn't the ECJ is at least as likely as not to hold that the notice is withdrawable.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/italy-turns-on-the-european-union/
There are however a couple of points to note:
1) Italy is not the first country in Europe to 'fall' to populism. Even if we exclude Russia in 1991, Greece beat them to it under Tsipras.
2) It is a very interesting thought that the article fails to make explicit that populists on left and right are working together barring a difference of personality - confirming what I have said many times on here that populists whatever their ostensible label of left or right are two cheeks of the same arse. Essentially the 'it wasn't your fault, it wasn't all the immigrants/fat cats' arse.
Whoever takes over is then likely to attempt to have a general election, including on the customs union issue.
If it can't be done unilaterally then it requires us to ask and the other 27 to agree. That's not impossible. Indeed, I imagine the EU would be furious with any member that tried to block it, as think what a fillip a failed attempt to leave would be to full-fledged federalism. But equally it isn't something that can be taken casually for granted given the way things have fallen over the last two years.
I also must confess I do wonder what problems it would cause. One of the gripes about the EU has always been its, shall we say politely, patrician view of plebiscites. Ignoring a rejection of membership however would be a big, big deal. It would mark the moment the EU would be unable to pretend any more that its members were sovereign nation states working together, and instead were caught (in at least one case, against popular will) in a superstate in size and wealth equal to any power in the world. Moreover, a superstate currently run by people who even on the rare occasions they are sober would look out of their intellectual and moral depth running a village post office.
Many things would have to change dramatically and I wonder if they have all been considered in the context of this idea of revoking A50
It sounds like a damned sensible idea to me.
Soon we will know the proposed final destination of Brexit, and how we will get there. A lot of the gloss has worn off the Brexit manifesto.
By the same token, we know that Project Fear looks to have been overcooked.
We could actually have a debate on the facts, not the illusions. Should we choose to continue with Brexit - which I think on balance we would - it would be much less controversial.
I agree with others though that to avoid moral hazard, the referendum should be announced only once negotiations have concluded.
There is A50, and there is realpolitik.
Of course, a way could be found, if we wanted to stay, even if somebody decided to be awkward. The most obvious solution that occurs is that the transition end date could be left off the withdrawal agreement. Problem solved at the stroke of a pen. But that then raises big issues of governance and democracy the EU is simply completely unfitted to face.
Of course, if we are to be in a federal superstate a crisis that swept away the Commission, the Presidency and the Council and replaced them with proper democratic functions would be very beneficial. But would a man like Selmayr go quietly if the ground was cut from underneath him?
It offers May the chance to go down in history as the Great Repairer. I’d expect her to sit out any campaign, as Wilson did in the 70s.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lower-betting-cap-is-a-victory-for-morality-over-money-h9h5sf7m3
Are you saying you only looked at their twitter account and not at their website? Because if so it's intriguing you cited the latter.
May can legitimately rise above it all and leave it up to others to campaign, having taken Brexiteers on a journey that makes it almost impossible for them to back the deal with anything other than grim determination.
Rather like War Loan, which will be repaid as soon as circumstances allow.
I don't mind that you want us to stay in. I'd prefer it if we weren't leaving although I've resigned myself to it (and things are panning out much as I expected in the event of a leave vote).
I do mind that you don't seem to be able to deal with reality and are exceptionally unpleasant to people who point it out to you.
The text I quoted refers to "our party" so if you want to accuse anyone of misrepresentation, talk to the author.
With the start of 2018 we have launched our new campaign, Tories Against Brexit, via social media. This is because 2018 is the year in which the big decisions will be taken and with them comes our last chance to stop the disaster of Brexit. Now is the time for all who recognise that Brexit threatens our prosperity, our Union and our place in the world to come together to oppose it.
We set up Citizens 4 Britain last year because we wanted to create a place where anyone who had voted Tory, or who belonged (or had recently belonged) to the Conservative Party, could link to other like-minded, anti-Brexit Tories.
If you like the sound of Merlin engines at full chat...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/17/john-bercow-accused-calling-andrea-leadsom-stupid-woman-foul/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders
I think I agree with Mr. Meeks generally. And too often the media seem to feed on each other.
But some writers do stand out---for instance the article by Janan Ganesh in the FT's May 5th issue about our society's run away pustular swelling of CP Snow's two cultures.
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/997082156533977088
"Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.
I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
May was correct all along. We need an ambitious, bespoke arrangement.
Norway + Turkey