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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this ye

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  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,042
    surby said:

    What are the odds on a general election this year ?

    <5% Sadly!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    surby said:

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Frictionless movement from "customs partnership" to "deep customs arrangement"

    May was correct all along. We need an ambitious, bespoke arrangement.

    Norway + Turkey
    Plus a few more pluses.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    May is going to blow all her slim remaining capital on getting past next March. I think she'll then stand down
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Brendan O'Neill's piece is ill-informed nonsense. Those who play FOBTs aren't interested in betting on horse racing or greyhound racing, real or virtual.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    murali_s said:

    surby said:

    What are the odds on a general election this year ?

    <5% Sadly!</p>
    It is increasing daily. The only sad part is that the Loonies do not have the numbers to depose her.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    GIN1138 said:
    Why ? He called Loathsome stupid - that is all.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    surby said:

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Frictionless movement from "customs partnership" to "deep customs arrangement"

    May was correct all along. We need an ambitious, bespoke arrangement.

    Norway + Turkey
    The EU might need UK+?

    The idea that our future arrangements might be beholden to those made by the EU with relatively minor trading partners has always seemed daft to me. It simply will be a tailor made deal that suits both sides. Our trousering may not necessarily have the turn-ups we'd like, and their lapels might be a little shallower cut than they'd like, but that's the way it will be.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/997220649792888832

    Gibraltarians are still tremendously loyal ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/997220649792888832

    Gibraltarians are still tremendously loyal ;)
    But Gibraltar has no oil, we need Scotland's oil.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    surby said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Why ? He called Loathsome stupid - that is all.
    A little more than that.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    RobD said:

    surby said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Why ? He called Loathsome stupid - that is all.
    A little more than that.
    Surby's reminding us all why Labour have never had a woman Prime Minister.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    stodge said:

    Brendan O'Neill's piece is ill-informed nonsense. Those who play FOBTs aren't interested in betting on horse racing or greyhound racing, real or virtual.
    "I know people who frequent betting shops, mainly to bet on horses, and they will occasionally spend 10 or 20 quid on an FOBT if they’re bored. I expect that’s how the majority of FOBT-users engage with these machines." Because there are no grounds for thinking that the subset of FOBT gamblers who know someone who writes for the Spectator differ in any material respect from the others. I have rarely read a more insultingly stupid article about anything, ever.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    The Telegraph’s circulation figures make sense now. They’re killing off their readers with headlines like that.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/997220649792888832

    Gibraltarians are still tremendously loyal ;)
    But Gibraltar has no oil, we need Scotland's oil.
    Let’s frack then.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited May 2018

    The Telegraph’s circulation figures make sense now. They’re killing off their readers with headlines like that.
    I know: Arteta for the Gunners’ job! Shocking.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,793
    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    GIN1138 said:
    Why? Whatever his merits as Speaker no one seems at all surprised that he can be an utter cock - as much as there is no need for him to act so, or bully people, since it is no surprise why would it spur people to action against him this time, even if it should?
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    cant you just buy the ticket on national rail enquiries, go to advanced options - travel via york.
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    NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    Try Loco2.com Excellent site for train journeys all over the UK and Europe. Use otger options to enter York as a 'via station
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/997220649792888832

    Gibraltarians are still tremendously loyal ;)
    But Gibraltar has no oil, we need Scotland's oil.
    They have to send us the oil anyway, if they want to keep getting our nuclear waste.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Of course he will involve himself in a second referendum - that's not really the same as returning to the frontline, is it?

    I do like this though:

    Mr Salmond also claimed the UK government’s refusal to give in to Ms Sturgeon’s demands on the EU powers dispute had made the case for independence “virtually unanswerable”

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond-pledges-return-to-frontline-politics-when-sturgeon-calls-indyref2-1-4741252

    People less certain one way or the other may or may not agree that the dispute has had that unintended outcome, but given he's been thinking the case for independence was virtually unanswerable for decade upon decade, I'm not sure what extra weight such a pronouncement carries.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    Newspapers made a huge mistake when they cleared out all the journalists and retained all the expensive op-ed writers. Reasonably good writers are plentiful. In order to provide a point of difference, newspapers need to supply something which the public can't get relatively easily elsewhere. In the case of newspapers, that something is news. That needs the fact-finders - the journalists.

    Actually it turns out you just need Matt.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    pp.com/thread/997196861248327680.html
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited May 2018

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    I've done Edinburgh to Llandudno junction before. 4-5 hours. Think there is a direct Crewe to Edinburgh every 2 hours?

    Edit to add: Sorry, I'm being an idiot - WCML down and the delay is lengthy...
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    nielh said:

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    cant you just buy the ticket on national rail enquiries, go to advanced options - travel via york.
    That's where I found the route, but when you try and buy the ticket it sends you to a train company website - which can't then find the journey. You can't buy tickets directly from national rail enquiries.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    Try Loco2.com Excellent site for train journeys all over the UK and Europe. Use otger options to enter York as a 'via station
    Yes, loco can find the route. They're unable to apply the young person's railcard discount though. You can add the railcard but it doesn't apply the discount.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    nielh said:

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    cant you just buy the ticket on national rail enquiries, go to advanced options - travel via york.
    That's where I found the route, but when you try and buy the ticket it sends you to a train company website - which can't then find the journey. You can't buy tickets directly from national rail enquiries.
    Suspect via York is not a valid route. Just tricked on split ticketing and it doesn't come up as a fare for via York...
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    My advice is to go to a manned station and explain what you are looking for. Generally staff are good at getting you what you want. It can sometimes be cheaper to buy two linked advance fares than a through ticket, although you run the risk of losing your ticket if the first train is delayed.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    FF43 said:

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    My advice is to go to a manned station and explain what you are looking for. Generally staff are good at getting you what you want. It can sometimes be cheaper to buy two linked advance fares than a through ticket, although you run the risk of losing your ticket if the first train is delayed.
    It does look like it's that or buy one ticket to York and another onward from York.

    Not impressed by the algorithms. Even Google wants to route the journey up the West Coast even though the engineering delays make the journey faster on the East Coast.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited May 2018
    Dominic Raab coming across extremely on top of his brief and calming some angry Grenfell residents.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    RobD said:
    The Kremlin not paying enough?
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    If May stays in the single market beyond the current extension she will be replaced.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411
    Elliot said:

    Dominic Raab coming across extremely on top of his brief and calming some angry Grenfell residents.

    Dominic Gyor, surely :)
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874
    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    If May stays in the single market beyond the current extension she will be replaced.
    Except she’ll have stood down before the extension expires. It’s genius.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    This just proved Gove and Johnson right - that any attempt to compromise on the backstop text (eg by extending the date of leaving the CU to allow for new technologies to be introduced) would just be taken by the EU as a further reason to insist on permanent CU and SM membership.

    May is a fool. No wonder the Remainers on this place suddenly support her...
  • Options
    NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    Try Loco2.com Excellent site for train journeys all over the UK and Europe. Use otger options to enter York as a 'via station
    Yes, loco can find the route. They're unable to apply the young person's railcard discount though. You can add the railcard but it doesn't apply the discount.
    I just managed to get it to apply a youth discount. I clicked on the age category on the first page, added the age, added in the via York option and got a price a third lower than the price without the out discount
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    If May stays in the single market beyond the current extension she will be replaced.
    Except she’ll have stood down before the extension expires. It’s genius.
    And if she extends the single market membership longer, the Tory membership will ensure a hard Brexiteer will replace her, and will abandon any such extension.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Yes, this is totally correct. But of course, this is the same as Cameron's plan at the 're-negotiation' - lie through your teeth so much that you start to believe it is true. Didn't work then. Won't work now. The assumption that 'the people' are stupid and will believe what you tell them was exactly what lost Remain the referendum.

    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.
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    NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    Try Loco2.com Excellent site for train journeys all over the UK and Europe. Use otger options to enter York as a 'via station
    Yes, loco can find the route. They're unable to apply the young person's railcard discount though. You can add the railcard but it doesn't apply the discount.
    Just realised you are booking from North Wales (not sure where) and I had picked up on Liverpòl in your original post and was trying from there. When I put Llandudno into a differnt enquiry it wouldn't pay the discount. I suggest booking the journey from Liverpool or Manchester via York with railcard and then booking a separate ticket from your daughters starting point to Liverpool or Mancheater
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894



    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.

    Sooner the better...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411
    Imagine if the UK said "Ireland must keep Commonwealth ties".
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Yes, this is totally correct. But of course, this is the same as Cameron's plan at the 're-negotiation' - lie through your teeth so much that you start to believe it is true. Didn't work then. Won't work now. The assumption that 'the people' are stupid and will believe what you tell them was exactly what lost Remain the referendum.

    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.
    How much of a wipeout do you reckon?

    Fewer than 200 seats?

    I'll offer you 10-1 on the double of a customs "partnership" and Tories sub 200 seats.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Yes, this is totally correct. But of course, this is the same as Cameron's plan at the 're-negotiation' - lie through your teeth so much that you start to believe it is true. Didn't work then. Won't work now. The assumption that 'the people' are stupid and will believe what you tell them was exactly what lost Remain the referendum.

    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.
    Worth noting the interplay between councillor number and 'wipeout'; for all sorts of reasons (psephological, logistical etc) it is rare to see a party with huge numbers of councillors wiped out at a national level.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,130
    edited May 2018

    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    This just proved Gove and Johnson right - that any attempt to compromise on the backstop text (eg by extending the date of leaving the CU to allow for new technologies to be introduced) would just be taken by the EU as a further reason to insist on permanent CU and SM membership.

    May is a fool. No wonder the Remainers on this place suddenly support her...
    The article does not actually say the Irish demand the UK stay in the single market if you read it, just that the UK follow 'many of its rules' which will largely be happening with regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border anyway.

    The UK can still technically leave the single market and end free movement even if it does do that, indeed according to the article the 'backstop' would still enable the UK to agree its own trade deals
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,130
    Not that surprising considering both voted Remain but one has sunshine and the other mainly rain and wind and one has almost everybody proud to be British the other has about 40% who do nothing but whinge about being British.

    Though of course such a choice will not be required anyway given latest Holyrood 2021 polls give unionist parties a majority even after the Brexit vote
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Ishmael_Z said:

    stodge said:

    Brendan O'Neill's piece is ill-informed nonsense. Those who play FOBTs aren't interested in betting on horse racing or greyhound racing, real or virtual.
    "I know people who frequent betting shops, mainly to bet on horses, and they will occasionally spend 10 or 20 quid on an FOBT if they’re bored. I expect that’s how the majority of FOBT-users engage with these machines." Because there are no grounds for thinking that the subset of FOBT gamblers who know someone who writes for the Spectator differ in any material respect from the others. I have rarely read a more insultingly stupid article about anything, ever.
    I regularly read O’Neill’s pieces on Spiked for pure entertainment - the contortions he is willing to execute towards his goal of perennial contrarianism are a sight to behold.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Yes, this is totally correct. But of course, this is the same as Cameron's plan at the 're-negotiation' - lie through your teeth so much that you start to believe it is true. Didn't work then. Won't work now. The assumption that 'the people' are stupid and will believe what you tell them was exactly what lost Remain the referendum.

    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.
    Worth noting the interplay between councillor number and 'wipeout'; for all sorts of reasons (psephological, logistical etc) it is rare to see a party with huge numbers of councillors wiped out at a national level.
    May appears to have come to the conclusion that CU and SM-lite is the least worst option, given the hand she was played. I trust we will all rejoice at that news.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    surby said:

    He [Varadkar] said: “Any move on customs with the UK would be welcome but I need to be very clear that avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is about more than customs. The single market and aspects related to regulation are important as well.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/theresa-may-tries-to-rally-support-for-customs-plan-from-eu-leaders

    That's what we have been saying on here. Single market here we come (dressed up in other words).

    "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”" That will please the Brexiteers.

    I think May will continue to repeat "We are leaving the Customs Union and we are leaving the Single Market" as we stay in the Customs Union and stay in the Single Market. She'll keep saying it until she retires.
    Yes, this is totally correct. But of course, this is the same as Cameron's plan at the 're-negotiation' - lie through your teeth so much that you start to believe it is true. Didn't work then. Won't work now. The assumption that 'the people' are stupid and will believe what you tell them was exactly what lost Remain the referendum.

    Will just result in a Tory wipeout at the next GE.
    Worth noting the interplay between councillor number and 'wipeout'; for all sorts of reasons (psephological, logistical etc) it is rare to see a party with huge numbers of councillors wiped out at a national level.
    Also, archer is simply wrong.

    What will determine the vast majority of votes in 2022 is how people answer the question: am I personally feeling better?

    If there is a recession - maybe caused by the UK savings rate normalising - then people will blame the government.

    If there is a meaningful reduction in immigration, while the economy booms, then people will thank the government.

    People care about results, not slogans. If Brexit is a success, they won't care about whether we're in a customs partnership or not, they will be happy and vote for those who espoused it. If Brexit is seen as a failure, those same people will be blamed.

    And yet what moves the economy more than anything in the next four years will be the economic cycle, the policies of the government, and the external environment. Brexit will probably be a distant fourth. Yet it will be blamed - or thanked - for everything.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411

    FF43 said:

    A puzzle for the train enthusiasts. Trying to book a ticket for my daughter from North Wales to Edinburgh on an upcoming Sunday when there are engineering works on the West Coast Mainline. Journey on the West Coast would take 9-10 hours with replacement buses, which is horrendous.

    Checked National Rail Enquiries and found that she can take a journey of 7 hours up the East Coast Mainline, via York and using the TransPennine Express to get across from Manchester or Liverpool. Much better. Except, none of the train companies are able to find the journey on their websites. CrossCountry even reckon that York (York!) is an invalid station.

    Has anyone come across this sort of thing before? Any advice?

    My advice is to go to a manned station and explain what you are looking for. Generally staff are good at getting you what you want. It can sometimes be cheaper to buy two linked advance fares than a through ticket, although you run the risk of losing your ticket if the first train is delayed.
    It does look like it's that or buy one ticket to York and another onward from York.

    Not impressed by the algorithms. Even Google wants to route the journey up the West Coast even though the engineering delays make the journey faster on the East Coast.
    Looks like two advance tickets are cheaper than the through fare of £129 one-way
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Clearly the Sun has paid for its falling circulation by reducing its subediting bill.

    Not sure a photograph of the Irish border sign riddled with bullet holes was a wise choice.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_Z said:

    stodge said:

    Brendan O'Neill's piece is ill-informed nonsense. Those who play FOBTs aren't interested in betting on horse racing or greyhound racing, real or virtual.
    "I know people who frequent betting shops, mainly to bet on horses, and they will occasionally spend 10 or 20 quid on an FOBT if they’re bored. I expect that’s how the majority of FOBT-users engage with these machines." Because there are no grounds for thinking that the subset of FOBT gamblers who know someone who writes for the Spectator differ in any material respect from the others. I have rarely read a more insultingly stupid article about anything, ever.
    Actually he's probably right.

    The majority of people probably don't gamble stupid amounts.

    That's not the problem though, the problem is those people (even if they're a minority of overall punters) who do gamble stupid amounts. Those may even make up a majority of profits for the FOBTs.

    As for gamblers putting in £10 or £20 if bored, that can still be done in very few spins if its £2 per spin.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour have won the 2 by-electionsin Lancaster (2 seats in University & Scotforth Rural and 1 in Skerton West) keepting the control of the countil
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    This just proved Gove and Johnson right - that any attempt to compromise on the backstop text (eg by extending the date of leaving the CU to allow for new technologies to be introduced) would just be taken by the EU as a further reason to insist on permanent CU and SM membership.

    May is a fool. No wonder the Remainers on this place suddenly support her...
    The article does not actually say the Irish demand the UK stay in the single market if you read it, just that the UK follow 'many of its rules' which will largely be happening with regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border anyway.

    The UK can still technically leave the single market and end free movement even if it does do that, indeed according to the article the 'backstop' would still enable the UK to agree its own trade deals
    Funny when I was saying exactly this - that staying in the CU was not going to be enough and we would be forced to stay in the SM - you were saying I was wrong. It was blindingly obvious that this would be the next move by the EU.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    Portillo looks very deflated about Brexit this week.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894

    Portillo looks very deflated about Brexit this week.


    Yep Theresa May's sold us all down the river.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2018
    Last time University ward in Lancaster had a by-election, it was outside term and the winner polled less than 100 votes. It was embarassing.

    This time it was more respectable. The Labour candidates polled 400-500 votes

    I am still not entirely sure all these activists are old enough to vote. The winning candidates are those with the rosette
    https://twitter.com/nathanneilburns/status/991367017721712642
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2018
    There must still be a final opportunity for the Tories to get her out in the next month or so...

    By letting her betray Brexit they are the one's about to go over the cliff (electorally) they must realize this?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2018
    Why on Earth does Theresa The Appeaser need new Tory Lords? She's caving in on every ******* thing anyway.

    I don't know what The Lords have been worried about we're NOT leaving the EU in any meaningful sense while Theresa May is squatting in Downing St.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    I have little time tonight (work is insane at the moment) so I'll keep this brief.

    1) I was saddened by the FOBT thing
    2) I set out my objections a few days ago.
    3) The only person who responded with data was @NickPalmer (thank you, btw) and the data he gave just state that the amount of money spent gambling has risen over the past X years and that FOBTs were the third-largest component of that rise.
    4) In order to be persuaded that this is a Good Thing instead of a Bad Thing, I need two numbers, namely: a) what is the present number of gambling addicts*1 and b) what is the predicted number of gambling addicts*1 after this ban?
    5) I don't believe *anybody* sat down and came up with a number for either a or b.
    6) Instead I assume this was a well-meaning-but-too-vague argument along the lines of "gambling ruins lives, these machines are used by gamblers, therefore we must slow them down because that will reduce the number of addicts". This is superficially plausible but dependent on too many unspoken assumptions.
    7) If my assumption is true and that this is legislation with unmodelled efficacy intended to cure a problem whose magnitude is similarly unstated, then this is ground for sadness as laws should not be passed in such a slapdash manner.

    I now return you to your banging on about whatever is today's objet de discussion

    Notes
    *1: defined as people whose habit inhibits their ability to function independently and lawfully
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2018
    780 has-beens, never were's, non-entities, losers and crooks... And still even more are on their way into The House Of Thieves....
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    edited May 2018
    Oh, and they've cancelled Lucifer and The Expanse. I am vexed.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    stodge said:

    Brendan O'Neill's piece is ill-informed nonsense. Those who play FOBTs aren't interested in betting on horse racing or greyhound racing, real or virtual.
    The imp in me needs to point out that of course it's ill-informed nonsense. It's a Spectator article. Duh... :)

    Ah, my coat.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    So The House of Lords is threatening to become even more of a Pickle(s)Lilley Circus.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    GIN1138 said:

    There must still be a final opportunity for the Tories to get her out in the next month or so...

    By letting her betray Brexit they are the one's about to go over the cliff (electorally) they must realize this?

    lets just wait and see what the government actually proposes and what the white paper has to say before we rush to judgment. If the customs extension is strictly time limited for a matter of months to allow new technology to be in place in time, and single market alignment is specifically excluded from the backstop agreement , then i think a sensible pragmatic solution that ultimately leads to Brexit in the true sense of the word can be brought about and her words in black and white can be hold her to account if she backslides from her promises to enable us strike our own trade deals, end free movement and regain control of our laws etc. i think wait and see before rushing to judgment
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411
    viewcode said:

    Oh, and they've cancelled Lucifer and The Expanse. I am vexed.

    Oh well, at least there's Discovery...
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    viewcode said:

    Oh, and they've cancelled Lucifer and The Expanse. I am vexed.

    Oh well, at least there's Discovery...
    NOT. HELPING.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    viewcode said:

    Oh, and they've cancelled Lucifer and The Expanse. I am vexed.

    Oh well, at least there's Discovery...
    Designated Survivor got the chop too - good start, but lost its way & couldn't make up its mind what it was....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    NEW THREAD
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,130
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Bit foolish to sign up to that Irish border backstop. Dilemma now is whether to break own agreement, rendering further promises useless, or to dance to an Irish jig.

    With May in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
    This just proved Gove and Johnson right - that any attempt to compromise on the backstop text (eg by extending the date of leaving the CU to allow for new technologies to be introduced) would just be taken by the EU as a further reason to insist on permanent CU and SM membership.

    May is a fool. No wonder the Remainers on this place suddenly support her...
    The article does not actually say the Irish demand the UK stay in the single market if you read it, just that the UK follow 'many of its rules' which will largely be happening with regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border anyway.

    The UK can still technically leave the single market and end free movement even if it does do that, indeed according to the article the 'backstop' would still enable the UK to agree its own trade deals
    Funny when I was saying exactly this - that staying in the CU was not going to be enough and we would be forced to stay in the SM - you were saying I was wrong. It was blindingly obvious that this would be the next move by the EU.
    You were wrong.

    As I said if you actually read the article it did not say we would be forced to stay in the SM or to keep free movement
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    HYUFD said:

    Not that surprising considering both voted Remain but one has sunshine and the other mainly rain and wind and one has almost everybody proud to be British the other has about 40% who do nothing but whinge about being British.

    Though of course such a choice will not be required anyway given latest Holyrood 2021 polls give unionist parties a majority even after the Brexit vote
    Cuckoo
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