politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic

Will students continue to back Corbyn if he continues with his equivocation?https://t.co/n7aXmyNxIO
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First0
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Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
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FPT, for FrankBoothNeilVW said:
Yes it does.FrankBooth said:Can I just ask - does the total number of people in employment include everyone who is self-employed? I'm not sure the 'number of people in work' is a very useful measure. Be interesting to see how much change there is as a result of the £1000 trading allowance.
Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for January to March 2018 with those for a year earlier:
- employees increased by 480,000 to 27.43 million (84.8% of all people in work)
- self-employed people decreased by 38,000 to 4.75 million (14.7% of all people in work)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018#employment0 -
Can Corbyn really escape his past, or the huge contradictions in his policies for the next 4 year's? Doubt it.0
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I think Brexit is the kind of issue where almost nobody will care about the tactics. What will potentially shift votes is how politicians behave when it really comes to the crunch later on in the year. Until then anyone can project whatever they want onto the leaders.0
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The headline measure of pay, however, does not include the self-employed, for obvious reasons.NeilVW said:FPT, for FrankBooth
NeilVW said:
Yes it does.FrankBooth said:Can I just ask - does the total number of people in employment include everyone who is self-employed? I'm not sure the 'number of people in work' is a very useful measure. Be interesting to see how much change there is as a result of the £1000 trading allowance.
Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for January to March 2018 with those for a year earlier:
- employees increased by 480,000 to 27.43 million (84.8% of all people in work)
- self-employed people decreased by 38,000 to 4.75 million (14.7% of all people in work)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018#employment0 -
Indeed0
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Labour probably appeals enough to students on other issues to retain their support, despite the differences over Brexit.0 -
Years of practiceMikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
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I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.0 -
Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.
Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.
Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.0 -
You never heard of the Terran Empire?RoyalBlue said:I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
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Oh it will.RoyalBlue said:I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.
On topic, I can see the Labour party changing direction. People said Corbyn had a fixed view on the EU but he at the least modulated his tone, to the point he says he voted Remain despite what many consider to be his personal preference, and it feels to me like many Labour figures are edging them, slowly but surely, to a remain position, by way of getting distance from the government shambles, then deciding it is all too difficult. He is now at the point, I suspect, that he is willing to ignore his personal inclinations on the EU in order to get into power, if he believes that is the path required. He has come closer than he ever thought, and the last thing he would want is to get to do none of what he wants. Would remaining help more than hinder? I'm not sure, and nor are they I suspect hence the vagueness, but the more the government flounders on the topic, and the harder it looks, the more the chance they will eventually switch, no matter the protestations now.
And as for now, well as you point out Labour was explicitly for Leave, but it didn't matter, and the question is will it matter at some point. I don't think it will. Where are the young going to go?
Not often I totally agree with you, but I feel the same way. I can see sudden tactical switches coming later, and people don't mind a u-turn if they like it, so it will depend on how the public opinion progresses.williamglenn said:I think Brexit is the kind of issue where almost nobody will care about the tactics. What will potentially shift votes is how politicians behave when it really comes to the crunch later on in the year. Until then anyone can project whatever they want onto the leaders.
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A 50k debt write-off is a big incentive to keep voting Labour.MTimT said:Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.
Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.
Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.0 -
Indeed. And if they think Tory Brexit is the worst Brexit, then clearly even if they are disappointed in Labour they will go for them, since the leap to LDs doesn't seem to be on. Better a disappointing Labour government than a Tory one.MTimT said:Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.
Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.
Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.0 -
"Number Cruncher Politics
@NCPoliticsUK
13h13 hours ago
ICM/Guardian:
CON 43 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 3 (=)
Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
N=2,050"0 -
You make it sound so easy, but I'll have you know that the only reason the bath has not been run yet is due to constant interference from the backbenchers, demanding amendments on using specific sized tubs, and particular taps (British made, of course), and then the Lords slapped on a bunch of health and safety nonsense about temperature control, and all this after the Select Committee on baths produced a highly damming report suggesting a return to a metal tub in front of a fire place, as in the glorious times of empire, was somehow deficient in this modern age.Foxy said:
The current state of Westminster suggests that it is not capable of running a bath, certainly not a world government!Casino_Royale said:
Oh, if we're running it all bets are off.williamglenn said:Casino_Royale said:
We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.
That doesn’t make it a good idea.
So one world government is actually a good idea, as long as it’s in Westminster?Casino_Royale said:
The British Empire didn’t do a good enough job.
Should have colonised far more countries for longer.
I'll accept your apology for denigrating our political leaders gracefully now.0 -
You're welcomeAnazina said:MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
(Seriously though, does the problem occur on both the main site, and in the vanillaforums webpage?)0 -
That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.
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If you think Corbyn is capable of running the country (never mind well) and you think the EU is a "fundamental good" then I'm sure there are all sorts of things you can be confused by.0
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So am I. I will now diminish, and go into the West.RobD said:
It was correctly described as peak PB. I'm sorry you missed it.RoyalBlue said:I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.0 -
'We few, we happy few, we band of brothers'RobD said:
It was correctly described as peak PB. I'm sorry you missed it.RoyalBlue said:I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.0 -
Continuing the new jobs discussion FPT these are the changes, in thousands, from 2011q4 (the peak in unemployment) to 2017q4 as per the ONS for economic sectors:
Agriculture +18
Mining -3
Manufacturing +152
Utilities +43
Construction +207
Retail +130
Transport +291
Hospitality +386
Communications +219
Finance +14
Property +89
Professional services +583
Support services +499
Public admin -104
Education +159
Health +408
Culture +137
Other services +101
Private households -9
Proportionally the sectors which have had the biggest increases are professional services followed by transport, support services, hospitality, property activities and communications.0 -
Subsamples.NeilVW said:That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.0 -
Rising fuel prices not having an effect yet.AndyJS said:"Number Cruncher Politics
@NCPoliticsUK
13h13 hours ago
ICM/Guardian:
CON 43 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 3 (=)
Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
N=2,050"0 -
Random number generators. Only a fool affords any credence to midterm polls, I would have thought the past few years have taught us that.another_richard said:
Subsamples.NeilVW said:That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.0 -
I never learn anything, it makes things more exciting.Anazina said:
Random number generators. Only a fool affords any credence to midterm polls, I would have thought the past few years have taught us that.another_richard said:
Subsamples.NeilVW said:That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.
Night all.0 -
RobD said:
You're welcomeAnazina said:MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.MikeSmithson said:
Well done. I am really pleased for youRobD said:First
(Seriously though, does the problem occur on both the main site, and in the vanillaforums webpage?)
To answer your question, no. It only occurs on the main page - when you use the vanilla skin it is fine, and the act of doing so bumps the normal page into life too. It’s a very odd fault.0 -
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:0 -
Reasonably chunky ones though, at 600+ in the case of ICM for instance.another_richard said:
Subsamples.NeilVW said:That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.0 -
Yes, it is interesting that those haven't had an effect.another_richard said:
Rising fuel prices not having an effect yet.AndyJS said:"Number Cruncher Politics
@NCPoliticsUK
13h13 hours ago
ICM/Guardian:
CON 43 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 3 (=)
Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
N=2,050"
I don't know whether this was reported earlier, but there's also a BMG poll out:
"Number Cruncher Politics
@ncpoliticsuk
12h12 hours ago
BMG/Independent:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 39 (+1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 4 (+1)
GRN 3 (-1)
SNP 4 (=)
1st-4th May (Changes vs 10th-13th Apr)
N=1,441"
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Not only is it part of the UK, it’s what defines the UK. If it left we’d presumably revert to being the Kingdom of Great Britain.Anazina said:
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:0 -
Nah, let’s go for Kingdom of England. The Scottish ‘Parliament’ will make a great county council chamber.williamglenn said:
Not only is it part of the UK, it’s what defines the UK. If it left we’d presumably revert to being the Kingdom of Great Britain.Anazina said:
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:0 -
"Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-441311360 -
Corbyn's working class supporters who are key voters in a number of industrial seats voted for Brexit and are also more likely to live in Midlands marginals than younger graduate Remainers in safe inner city seats. Under FPTP therefore Corbyn will not abandon the former for the latter0
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They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI electionswilliamglenn said:0 -
and yet Amber Rudd couldn't find one?AndyJS said:"Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-441311360 -
NeilVW said:
I can't work out from the link what they do with people who are both employed and self-employed. I have a day job and in the evenings and weekends I have a translation business (in between other stuff like real life, obviously). Do they double-count, or count whatever takes longest/earns nmost, or what?0 -
Are the 63 wrongly deported Windrush migrants going to be given the option to return to the UK if they want to? I hope so.0
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I can't work out from the link what they do with people who are both employed and self-employed. I have a day job and in the evenings and weekends I have a translation business (in between other stuff like real life, obviously). Do they double-count, or count whatever takes longest/earns nmost, or what?NickPalmer said:
===== (blockquote fail, apologies)
Good question. They don’t double-count in the headline employment total, but the Labour Force Survey does separately collect the number of people with second jobs (recently put at a little over 1.1 million). I would imagine that whichever of the two (employment or self-employment) is classed by the respondent as their ‘main’ job would then count that person in the employed or self-employed total respectively. It might conceivably be tricky to answer in some circumstances, I guess.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/reconciliationofestimatesofjobs/march2018#reconciliation0 -
Rosie McKenna, poor lamb, how naive can you possibly get?0
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To be clear - they don't choose to be citizens of the Republic they are citizens of Ireland by being born on the island of Ireland or to parents who were.Anazina said:
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:
She may or may not be happy with it but Arlene Foster is regarded as an Irish citizen by the Republic under its constitution.0 -
Does it? It says they have the right, not that they are.brendan16 said:
To be clear - they don't choose to be citizens of the Republic they are citizens of Ireland by being born on the island of Ireland or to parents who were.Anazina said:
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:
She may or may not be happy with it but Arlene Foster is regarded as an Irish citizen by the Republic under its constitution.0 -
Surely the likeliest outcome would be they won't turnout. This won't matter much in London but elsewhere ... Canterbury for example.MTimT said:Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.
Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.
Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.0 -
North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910
They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?0 -
Sad to see Tom Wolfe has passed: I loved Bonfire of the Vanities and A Man in Full, as well his earlier non-fiction.0
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New Yorker article has some more detail on what the US demand on Kim might be... which is possibly behind NK’s cold feet:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/just-how-fragile-is-trumps-north-korea-diplomacy0 -
Maths? SNP won 56 seats at GE2015 - went down to 35 at GE2018.HYUFD said:
They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI electionswilliamglenn said:
DUP secured just 36% of vote in Northern Ireland at GE170 -
It's a real problem for Corbyn - not because such voters will defect en masse but because a drop off of enthusiasm among those voters would hand the Tories a majority because Brexit/Jez has pushed more culturally conservative voters into the Tory camp. In 2017, Labour benefited from an anti-Tory/Brexit backlash that counteracted that - however Corbyn may be repeating the New Labour/Ed M mistake in reverse. Then, it was assumed the activist protest-loving left would vote Labour however much they griped, so they were largely ignored in favour of the key centre-ground voters (Ed M did try and offer them some red meat, but always had to ping back with a pitch the other way). They did go elsewhere and voted Lib Dem in 2010, Green, SNP, Plaid etc or failed to turn up in 2015. Over those years I lost count of the amount of times I tried to convince people they had to vote Labour to turf out the Tories, but was told meh. The same could well happen with a portion of centre-left pro-EU voters, who are Corbyn-sceptic to start with and may get so fed up with him that they decide to ditch any tactical considerations and shit to the Lib Dems, stay at home or go for niche parties to register their anger.0
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Barring the unlikely event of May calling a snap election, such calculations are moot for now. It’s just too long until the next election.MJW said:It's a real problem for Corbyn - not because such voters will defect en masse but because a drop off of enthusiasm among those voters would hand the Tories a majority because Brexit/Jez has pushed more culturally conservative voters into the Tory camp. In 2017, Labour benefited from an anti-Tory/Brexit backlash that counteracted that - however Corbyn may be repeating the New Labour/Ed M mistake in reverse. Then, it was assumed the activist protest-loving left would vote Labour however much they griped, so they were largely ignored in favour of the key centre-ground voters (Ed M did try and offer them some red meat, but always had to ping back with a pitch the other way). They did go elsewhere and voted Lib Dem in 2010, Green, SNP, Plaid etc or failed to turn up in 2015. Over those years I lost count of the amount of times I tried to convince people they had to vote Labour to turf out the Tories, but was told meh. The same could well happen with a portion of centre-left pro-EU voters, who are Corbyn-sceptic to start with and may get so fed up with him that they decide to ditch any tactical considerations and shit to the Lib Dems, stay at home or go for niche parties to register their anger.
Btw, is “shit to the Lib Dems” a typo ?0 -
Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.Nigelb said:North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910
They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?0 -
Iran is the latest example of Trump tearing up a deal America made, this time with another country that had been developing nuclear weapons. Those applauding Trump's actions must realise he limits America's future influence. To take a foorball example, the reason clubs compensate sacked managers is not because they feel sorry for them but in order to recruit the next manager.edmundintokyo said:
Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.Nigelb said:North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910
They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?
The issue of denuclearisation was also always going to be tricky because what some commentators miss is that, as NK and China use the word, it also means excluding the US Navy from the region -- because America will not confirm or deny which vessels carry nuclear weapons.
On strategic disasters, the new Iranian sanctions will surely attract Russia and China into the gap left by America and Europe.0 -
Mueller is an interesting guy:
https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/
If Trump is gettable, Mueller will get him.0 -
If Iran gets nuclear weapons then that's certainly in the ballpark of the disaster in Libya, and arguably worse since more likely to lead to a regional war.edmundintokyo said:
Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.Nigelb said:North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910
They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?0 -
NI is effectively a larger version of Gibraltar with far worse weatherAnazina said:
Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.williamglenn said:0 -
Mueller is the real life Harry BoschNigelb said:Mueller is an interesting guy:
https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/
If Trump is gettable, Mueller will get him.0 -
On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.
Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.0 -
Still he's not as rubbish as Theresa May when it comes to Brexit.
David Davis has told the prime minister that her favoured plan for a customs partnership with the EU could be illegal under international trade law, The Times has learnt.
The Brexit secretary, who backed the Leave campaign, is understood to have raised the threat of a legal challenge in a letter to Theresa May setting out his opposition to the proposal.
He has the backing of other Brexit-supporting cabinet ministers, who warned that if the government backed the partnership plan now it would be too late to reverse the policy if significant legal obstacles emerged. “In that scenario you’d end up staying in the customs union because you’d have no other choice,” a senior source said.
The attorney-general’s office has been asked to provide an urgent legal opinion before the cabinet makes its final decision. The advice will be provided directly to Mrs May and not considered by the cabinet sub-committee set up last week to examine the proposal’s merits. This has alarmed opponents of the customs partnership plan.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-warned-her-brexit-customs-plan-might-not-be-legal-pwktqsvvj
I mean nothing bad ever happened when an Attorney-General felt pressurised to give a PM the legal opinion the PM wanted.
#PoundShopBlair0 -
RoyalBlue said:
I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.
That moment will never come again.
I thank you.
0 -
Amber Rudd was doing what she was told and still following Theresa May's Windrush policy.MarqueeMark said:
and yet Amber Rudd couldn't find one?AndyJS said:"Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-441311360 -
Or they’ll recognise that, no matter the importance of Brexit, there are shorter-term issues as well, and this Government is mishandling them. Housing, for example.Casino_Royale said:On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.
Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.0 -
Quite a promotion from your usual #PoundShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?TheScreamingEagles said:#PoundShopBlair
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What ever happened to the chap who was going to fix that?OldKingCole said:
Housing, for example.Casino_Royale said:On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.
Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.0 -
On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.0 -
3 GEs with 3 hung parliaments would be truly impressive.CarlottaVance said:
Quite a promotion from your usual #PoubdShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?TheScreamingEagles said:#PoundShopBlair
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No, she'll fight one and be remembered as the Tory leader that lost David Cameron's majority to a Russia defending, IRA condoning Trot.CarlottaVance said:
Quite a promotion from your usual #PoundShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?TheScreamingEagles said:#PoundShopBlair
The shame.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
An interesting thought. If true, cui bono? I suspect the young voters might just stay at home. The obvious alternative would be the Lib Dems, although tuition fees might make them less than palatable.
That said, the willingness of much of the youth to embrace socialism is indicative of an incapacity to pay attention to recent history, so maybe they will go for the yellows.
Upon reading numerous posts below, I sought out Mr. Royale's post. It's a very interesting discussion point.0 -
Juncker managed 4 in Luxembourg, although given the scandal that forced his resignation maybe control of the House wasn't as important to him as control of the security apparatus (which he claimed he wasn't controlling...)rkrkrk said:
3 GEs with 3 hung parliaments would be truly impressive.CarlottaVance said:
Quite a promotion from your usual #PoubdShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?TheScreamingEagles said:#PoundShopBlair
Admittedly even in her worst moments May is no Juncker.0 -
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.0 -
Most people just want the Govt to get on with Brexit and STFU with all the sniping.
I really see politicians now in a much worse light than I ever have done before.0 -
I think it's >90% next election is after March 2019.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
But no idea how long this implementation period will last.
At some point the Tories will have a policy, and then I expect Labour to offer something closer to softer Brexit than that.
The Lib Dems have set their stall out early and it doesn't seem to have helped them much.
0 -
LOLCarlottaVance said:
What ever happened to the chap who was going to fix that?OldKingCole said:
Housing, for example.Casino_Royale said:On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.
Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.
Gone to the oversee what appears to be the cesspit of racism that is Mrs May’s immigration policy.0 -
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
Most Conservative ministers, including the Prime Minister and her immediate predecessor, were Remainers, weren't they? The EU has long been a Conservative project and noisy Leavers on the backbenches, let alone "look squirrel" shouts at Labour, should not blind us to that fact. You say the Conservatives won't want to go back in but most of them don't want to come out, which is why various BINO options are being explored.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.0 -
Yes, I would agree they don't want to come out, but having come out I think they will be considerably more reluctant to even consider going back in. Politically I don't think they will even have that option given their voter base.DecrepitJohnL said:
Most Conservative ministers, including the Prime Minister and her immediate predecessor, were Remainers, weren't they? The EU has long been a Conservative project and noisy Leavers on the backbenches, let alone "look squirrel" shouts at Labour, should not blind us to that fact. You say the Conservatives won't want to go back in but most of them don't want to come out, which is why various BINO options are being explored.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
Labour however will I think on current evidence have a groundswell of support for Returning.0 -
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
Two years later, over a year since A50 was triggered. Pathetic.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44127955
Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.0 -
Must be why he posed by a Karl Marx workers of the world unite poster a couple of weeks ago then.SquareRoot said:
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
The main lesson punters learned at the last election, even if it passed CCHQ by, was that the reds under the beds scares don't work.SquareRoot said:
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, leading Conservatives revel in pandering to xenophobia. You’d think they might want to tone that down too.SquareRoot said:
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/996382410509094912?s=210 -
I think that there will be a powerful Rejoin movement in time, at least as politically divisive as the Eurosceptics have been these last decades.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
The Conservatives too have a difficult cluster of horses to ride, including pro EU business types, Hannanite Antlantacist free traders and socially conservative backwoodsmen in the Shires as well as WWC voters in the old coalfields who are quite Socialist economically.0 -
Though I share your Utilitarianish view of the EU, I think there's perhaps a bit more to it than that. If we had a more confident government negotiating from the outset and making the case for a positive post Brexit settlement, it's quite conceivable that there would have been far fewer irreconcilables.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe...
As it is, no one has the least idea of what we're going to be landed with - least of all the government, apparently. And the Leave message still seems to be 'we won, suck it up'.
Hardly surprising that those who voted to remain are a bit pissed off.0 -
not really, there were lots of xenophobes out there esp in the WWCAlastairMeeks said:
Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, leading Conservatives revel in pandering to xenophobia. You’d think they might want to tone that down too.SquareRoot said:
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
I think the rejoin threshold will be too much to stomach for many who voted Remain when it was the status quo option - Euro, EU Army etc...Foxy said:
I think that there will be a powerful Rejoin movement in time, at least as politically divisive as the Eurosceptics have been these last decades.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
The Conservatives too have a difficult cluster of horses to ride, including pro EU business types, Hannanite Antlantacist free traders and socially conservative backwoodsmen in the Shires as well as WWC voters in the old coalfields who are quite Socialist economically.0 -
Yes they need to be clear the reds are IN their beds , not underDecrepitJohnL said:
The main lesson punters learned at the last election, even if it passed CCHQ by, was that the reds under the beds scares don't work.SquareRoot said:
Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...AlastairMeeks said:Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.0 -
What is a serious opposition? It should like?SouthamObserver said:
Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.
To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.
Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.
0 -
White skin?SouthamObserver said:Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/996382410509094912?s=21
Seriously though, why is anyone surprised. Trump’s made it clear that as far as he’s concerned it’s America first, other people’s interests twenty-fifth. And that’s corporate America first, of course!0 -
Almost all of those issues you cite have been prevented by cooler heads in the Tory party...rkrkrk said:
What is a serious opposition? It should like?SouthamObserver said:
Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.
To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.
Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.0 -
I have the same issue with Westminster. Turns out I f don't think the United Kingdom should be dissolved simply because of that self serving institution and the shower that makes up the government and opposition. At least Brussels exercises a modicum of competence.ydoethur said:
Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.Foxy said:
It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.rkrkrk said:On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.0 -
LOLMortimer said:
Almost all of those issues you cite have been prevented by cooler heads in the Tory party...rkrkrk said:
What is a serious opposition? It should like?SouthamObserver said:
Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.
To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.
Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.0 -
So the SNP lost almost half their seats yes and under FPTP the DUP won a majority of seats at Westminster in 2017 and most seats in the NI AssemblyMikeSmithson said:
Maths? SNP won 56 seats at GE2015 - went down to 35 at GE2018.HYUFD said:
They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI electionswilliamglenn said:
DUP secured just 36% of vote in Northern Ireland at GE170 -
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Morning all,
Looks like the N Korea situation is going well. They don't want to give up nukes. Who would have thought it?0 -
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Have the Mexicans paid for the wall yet?SouthamObserver said:Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/996382410509094912?s=21
0