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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic young backers of a year ago
Will students continue to back Corbyn if he continues with his equivocation?https://t.co/n7aXmyNxIO
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Labour probably appeals enough to students on other issues to retain their support, despite the differences over Brexit.
That moment will never come again.
Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.
Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.
On topic, I can see the Labour party changing direction. People said Corbyn had a fixed view on the EU but he at the least modulated his tone, to the point he says he voted Remain despite what many consider to be his personal preference, and it feels to me like many Labour figures are edging them, slowly but surely, to a remain position, by way of getting distance from the government shambles, then deciding it is all too difficult. He is now at the point, I suspect, that he is willing to ignore his personal inclinations on the EU in order to get into power, if he believes that is the path required. He has come closer than he ever thought, and the last thing he would want is to get to do none of what he wants. Would remaining help more than hinder? I'm not sure, and nor are they I suspect hence the vagueness, but the more the government flounders on the topic, and the harder it looks, the more the chance they will eventually switch, no matter the protestations now.
And as for now, well as you point out Labour was explicitly for Leave, but it didn't matter, and the question is will it matter at some point. I don't think it will. Where are the young going to go? Not often I totally agree with you, but I feel the same way. I can see sudden tactical switches coming later, and people don't mind a u-turn if they like it, so it will depend on how the public opinion progresses.
@NCPoliticsUK
13h13 hours ago
ICM/Guardian:
CON 43 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 3 (=)
Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
N=2,050"
I'll accept your apology for denigrating our political leaders gracefully now.
(Seriously though, does the problem occur on both the main site, and in the vanillaforums webpage?)
ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.
Agriculture +18
Mining -3
Manufacturing +152
Utilities +43
Construction +207
Retail +130
Transport +291
Hospitality +386
Communications +219
Finance +14
Property +89
Professional services +583
Support services +499
Public admin -104
Education +159
Health +408
Culture +137
Other services +101
Private households -9
Proportionally the sectors which have had the biggest increases are professional services followed by transport, support services, hospitality, property activities and communications.
Night all.
To answer your question, no. It only occurs on the main page - when you use the vanilla skin it is fine, and the act of doing so bumps the normal page into life too. It’s a very odd fault.
I don't know whether this was reported earlier, but there's also a BMG poll out:
"Number Cruncher Politics
@ncpoliticsuk
12h12 hours ago
BMG/Independent:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 39 (+1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 4 (+1)
GRN 3 (-1)
SNP 4 (=)
1st-4th May (Changes vs 10th-13th Apr)
N=1,441"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44131136
I can't work out from the link what they do with people who are both employed and self-employed. I have a day job and in the evenings and weekends I have a translation business (in between other stuff like real life, obviously). Do they double-count, or count whatever takes longest/earns nmost, or what?
===== (blockquote fail, apologies)
Good question. They don’t double-count in the headline employment total, but the Labour Force Survey does separately collect the number of people with second jobs (recently put at a little over 1.1 million). I would imagine that whichever of the two (employment or self-employment) is classed by the respondent as their ‘main’ job would then count that person in the employed or self-employed total respectively. It might conceivably be tricky to answer in some circumstances, I guess.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/reconciliationofestimatesofjobs/march2018#reconciliation
She may or may not be happy with it but Arlene Foster is regarded as an Irish citizen by the Republic under its constitution.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910
They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/just-how-fragile-is-trumps-north-korea-diplomacy
DUP secured just 36% of vote in Northern Ireland at GE17
Btw, is “shit to the Lib Dems” a typo ?
The issue of denuclearisation was also always going to be tricky because what some commentators miss is that, as NK and China use the word, it also means excluding the US Navy from the region -- because America will not confirm or deny which vessels carry nuclear weapons.
On strategic disasters, the new Iranian sanctions will surely attract Russia and China into the gap left by America and Europe.
https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/
If Trump is gettable, Mueller will get him.
Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.
David Davis has told the prime minister that her favoured plan for a customs partnership with the EU could be illegal under international trade law, The Times has learnt.
The Brexit secretary, who backed the Leave campaign, is understood to have raised the threat of a legal challenge in a letter to Theresa May setting out his opposition to the proposal.
He has the backing of other Brexit-supporting cabinet ministers, who warned that if the government backed the partnership plan now it would be too late to reverse the policy if significant legal obstacles emerged. “In that scenario you’d end up staying in the customs union because you’d have no other choice,” a senior source said.
The attorney-general’s office has been asked to provide an urgent legal opinion before the cabinet makes its final decision. The advice will be provided directly to Mrs May and not considered by the cabinet sub-committee set up last week to examine the proposal’s merits. This has alarmed opponents of the customs partnership plan.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-warned-her-brexit-customs-plan-might-not-be-legal-pwktqsvvj
I mean nothing bad ever happened when an Attorney-General felt pressurised to give a PM the legal opinion the PM wanted.
#PoundShopBlair
I thank you.
A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?
I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.
Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
The shame.
An interesting thought. If true, cui bono? I suspect the young voters might just stay at home. The obvious alternative would be the Lib Dems, although tuition fees might make them less than palatable.
That said, the willingness of much of the youth to embrace socialism is indicative of an incapacity to pay attention to recent history, so maybe they will go for the yellows.
Upon reading numerous posts below, I sought out Mr. Royale's post. It's a very interesting discussion point.
Admittedly even in her worst moments May is no Juncker.
I really see politicians now in a much worse light than I ever have done before.
But no idea how long this implementation period will last.
At some point the Tories will have a policy, and then I expect Labour to offer something closer to softer Brexit than that.
The Lib Dems have set their stall out early and it doesn't seem to have helped them much.
Gone to the oversee what appears to be the cesspit of racism that is Mrs May’s immigration policy.
I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.
Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.
Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.
Labour however will I think on current evidence have a groundswell of support for Returning.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44127955
Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/996382410509094912?s=21
The Conservatives too have a difficult cluster of horses to ride, including pro EU business types, Hannanite Antlantacist free traders and socially conservative backwoodsmen in the Shires as well as WWC voters in the old coalfields who are quite Socialist economically.
As it is, no one has the least idea of what we're going to be landed with - least of all the government, apparently. And the Leave message still seems to be 'we won, suck it up'.
Hardly surprising that those who voted to remain are a bit pissed off.
To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.
Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.
Seriously though, why is anyone surprised. Trump’s made it clear that as far as he’s concerned it’s America first, other people’s interests twenty-fifth. And that’s corporate America first, of course!
Looks like the N Korea situation is going well. They don't want to give up nukes. Who would have thought it?