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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by ele
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election
Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote in the Lewisham Easy by election where Heidi Alexander polled 67.9% last year.
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The open border proposed for NI/IRE has no physical constraints. Such a border is not physically capable of preventing a person entering.
The former constitutes "control". The latter does not.
The 'holiday' argument is pretty facile, to be honest. Control does not have to be exercised at borders.
As for the facility (wrong word?) of the holiday argument, I wasn't the one who was making it.
You are correct that "control" does not have to be exercised at borders. However if one wants to control borders (and I believe that is what May is trying to say) then one will, at some point, have to control a border. And the proposals thus far do not constitute control.
How easy is it to motivate people for these certain result by-elections? I imagine it being in London is helpful, both in finding sufficient enthusiasm, and because its easy for others to get to.
Will they calculate they average weight of a ballot paper in advance and let us know how many there were in the 240kg of Labour votes?
Edit - ah, no I see it's by proportion. So they just weigh the others too and do the maths.
More seriously, I would have said that price for 70%+ looks a bargain under the circumstances - even if 60-70 is more likely it's not five times more likely, surely? Allen wasn't far away last year.
Looks like good calls, Mr. Eagles.
F1: started the post-race nonsense. Must say I'm getting tired of near misses. Almost every bet this year has fallen into that category. This weekend my qualifying tip failed by 0.04s, and the DNF bet failed after Verstappen hit Stroll but was fine to keep going.
The first weekend was only red because of a double pit stop failure (what're the odds?), and in the second I backed Ricciardo, who was the only driver in the whole race to suffer a reliability failure.
Anyway. To work.
I question whether any senior figure at the PCS Union (@MsLadyPhyll is "Head of 'Equality'") can be unifying figure for Labour at present outside the Corbynite faction, given that Union's past and current campaigns, particularly one who very recently specifically placed Israel alongside Nazi Germany as countries which have committed Holocausts.
I'm inclined to think that the unexpected family situation involved at least in part opinions being discovered unexpectedly.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/09/britain-to-push-post-brexit-uk-immigration-controls-back-to-irish-border
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/995695011747520512?s=21
There may be a delay, perhaps in the form of a interim transition with a break after six months if no agreement is made.
I don't see anyone coming close to Labour in winning the seat - Labour now hold every council seat on the borough which shows how much they dominate locally.
I keep banging on about this: we understand Ireland poorly, not just its society but its government and civil service. We have British people who deliberately ignore it and Irish people living in Britain who assume that their ancestry grants wisdom. But that's really not enough.
Parts of the seat, Blackheath in particular, are very similar in make-up to Richmond and Kingston. There are, I guess, a lot of soft LAB Remainers.
Postal votes will go out in a week or two, though. In my view these should be discouraged, as we should allow voters the benefit of a full campaign.
It works equally well in business and in government. Most of the control exercised over the population in a modern democracy is passive. Indeed in that case it can be very effective to the extent of being pernicious.
Yet both Blair and Thatcher would have been far better Prime Ministers for a competent opposition keeping them on their toes (although at least both had powerful enemies in their own government).
(I wonder if anyone will spot this one?)
We can even do Europop quite well. This annoyingly catchy ‘90s throwback tune is currently topping the charts all over Europe - by two British artists.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkeiKbqa02g
And this British collaboration is one of the biggest selling singles of the past decade, so we have the talent in songwriting and performing to have a good go at it if we wanted to take the competition seriously.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m-M1AtrxztU
Do you think the Lib Dems are going to surge ?
However it could be argued both Howard and Kinnock provided much tougher challenges for both as leaders of the opposition and indeed both Blair in 2005 and Thatcher in 1987 saw their majorities fall.
Although the electorate were unwilling to make Howard or Kinnock PM both arguably reformed their parties and got them back in the game and set up the future general election victories of their successors David Cameron and Tony Blair
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/995277104030928896
1. That the EU has clear rules that the default for a border between an EU country and a non-EU country outside the customs union needs to look like a fortification, with physical barriers and customs checks.
2. That the primary objective of the EU in the negotiations is to prevent Brexit being seen as a success by any other recalcitrant member states.
The combination of these issues is why they are trying to use the NI / RoI border as a wedge issue, to maintain the influence of the EU in the UK after Brexit by restricting our ability to negotiate our own trade deals or by alter our product standards.
That one?
Yep, its the realisation that leading Remainers are just *so* popular that the one who lost to Ed is back....
Good evening, everybody.
1) EU/Ireland is insisting on a totally open, uncontrolled border between IRE&NI, and will not grant a withdrawal agreement without it.
2) DUP is insisting on a totally open, uncontrolled border between NI&GB
3) HMG is dealing with this by insisting that we're controlling it *really* using some kind of magic forcefield.
This may explain why May is insisting on her customs partnership thingy, even though her cabinet thinks its bollocks and the EU has already rejected it.
(not that one...)
The issue for the EU (and exasperated though I am with them at the moment, it is a real issue) is that they cannot have no border in Ireland and a hard border with Russia and Belorussia to the East, unless we have a WTO ratified agreement. And while I think they would be stark mad to unilaterally impose a hard border in Ireland, they would be considerably madder to have no border with a brace of hostile Fascist dictatorships infamous for their criminality and aggression.
An electronic border already works between the USA and Canada, the world’s longest land border. It would be easy to make it work in NI if there was the political will to do so, but Varakdar and Barnier want to make sure it doesn’t happen.
All this is making a no-deal Brexit more likely by the day.