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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lea

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour could do a lot worse than Tom Willetts for Lewisham East. He’s local, a dedicated activist and his twitter feed is extraordinarily wholesome.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Scott_P said:
    Considering Black Wednesday was the direct result of the Eurofanatics trying to tie us closer to the EU it is ironic to see one of he current crop of Tory Eurofanatics (who probably loved the ERM) referencing that event.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Charles said:

    But surely "to be spoofed" is to be deceived, thus unspoofable can also mean unable to be deceived?

    (Although I also agree that it's usually used to mean "beyond parody".)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour could do a lot worse than Tom Willetts for Lewisham East. He’s local, a dedicated activist and his twitter feed is extraordinarily wholesome.

    Wrong gender
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    Wrong gender
    He could always self-identify as a woman to overcome that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How many people have put their names forward for Lewisham East?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
    Don't banned posters just come back reincarated as someone else?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,696

    He could always self-identify as a woman to overcome that.
    I fear he'll need to self-identify as a total loon to get through this selection process.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688
    Broken sleazy LibDems on the slide :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.

    He's...naïve. Perhaps childlike is a better way of putting it. He quotes from science-fiction novels ("...that hideous strength..."), holds childlike views ("wouldn't you prefer to trade with your friends"), has a simple, innocent faith in his view of the world and believes that those who disagree are bad and anything that goes wrong is due to bad people. Such simple faith is admirable but perhaps not best suited to positions of responsibility.

    Parenthetically, you could describe quite a few modern pols as man-children: Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, and of course Boris. May, for all her problems (list available upon request) is at least a grown-up.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,696

    Broken sleazy LibDems on the slide :)

    Other playground equipment is also available...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    viewcode said:

    He's...naïve. Perhaps childlike is a better way of putting it. He quotes from science-fiction novels ("...that hideous strength..."), holds childlike views ("wouldn't you prefer to trade with your friends"), has a simple, innocent faith in his view of the world and believes that those who disagree are bad and anything that goes wrong is due to bad people. Such simple faith is admirable but perhaps not best suited to positions of responsibility.

    Parenthetically, you could describe quite a few modern pols as man-children: Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, and of course Boris. May, for all her problems (list available upon request) is at least a grown-up.
    You missed Trump from your list.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Britain's policies on austerity, immigration and terrorism are racist, says UN inspector"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/11/uk-policies-austerity-immigration-fighting-terrorism-racist/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    He could always self-identify as a woman to overcome that.
    The prefix "self-" in the term "self-identify" is redundant.

    (apols, but I have this pedant gene ... :) )
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688

    Other playground equipment is also available...
    You calculated the Swing?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    I cannot see the LD doing very well, they only got 2,000 votes in 2017 and that is 30,000 votes behind Labour. This will be an overwhelming Labour hold unfortunately and will strengthen Corbyn's grip on the PLP. Some of the ramping about LD prospects are laughable.
    I agree. The Lib Dems have proven effective in some middle-class Tory Remain areas of pre-existing strength. Lewisham does not fit that description, by some distance.

    Against Labour, the Lib Dems have had some good local by-election results but a parliamentary by-election is a different kettle of fish and the fact that the postal votes will go out in about 3 weeks gives them next to no time to organise.

    If Labour pick some anti-EU Marxist then yes, the LDs might stand a Haringey-style chance, particularly if that leads to open internal warfare within Labour. But as long as they remain sellably mainstream, theycan canter in.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    You calculated the Swing?
    In a roundabout way.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    DavidL said:

    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    The EU needs the UK. The UK needs the EU more. We're talking orders of magnitude.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited May 2018
    viewcode said:

    The prefix "self-" in the term "self-identify" is redundant.

    (apols, but I have this pedant gene ... :) )
    'Identify' is a transitive verb and requires an object. :smile:

    ('Self-identify', on the other hand, is intransitive.)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Amazing to think that Lewisham East and West were Tory seats in the Thatcher landslides. Indeed many of those 'half way' into central London seats were Tory in 1983 and 1987. I'd like to see a real challenge to Labour but like others I don't see it materialising here. Lets see.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well done finding that, I find archive searches on PB virtually impossible.
    It's another 'feature' of Vanilla!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    'Identify' is a transitive verb and requires an object. :smile:

    ('Self-identify', on the other hand, is intransitive.)
    Goddamn it, you might be right!

    (grumble grumble grumble it's still shorter grumble grumble)

    :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    You missed Trump from your list.
    Indeed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350

    Don't banned posters just come back reincarated as someone else?
    It has been rumoured so..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited May 2018
    viewcode said:

    Goddamn it, you might be right!

    (grumble grumble grumble it's still shorter grumble grumble)

    :)
    'Self-identify' is pretty ugly tbf. But what's the alternative?...

    "He could always identify himself herself as a woman" ??
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:
    The UN would have more credibility on such matters if Saudi Arabia wasn't on their human rights council.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,696

    It has been rumoured so..
    I think we deserve to see a definitive list.

    Or perhaps posters could self-identify as their former selves?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    It has been rumoured so..
    We should have a 'rogues list' of recently banned posters at the top of the page so that we can all play spot the reincarnatee (if that's a word?).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,314

    'Self-identify' is pretty ugly tbf. But what's the alternative?...

    "He could always identify himself herself as a woman" ??
    You could always go with "identify" and leave the object dangling (oooo-er). But it's one of those things: precision versus ease. I am torn.

    My train stop is coming up: gotta go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    viewcode said:

    You could always go with "identify" and leave the object dangling (oooo-er). But it's one of those things: precision versus ease. I am torn.

    My train stop is coming up: gotta go.
    I think you're right, the object is implied and obvious. But 'self-identify' is not wrong.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The UN calls us waycist ? Lol.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    viewcode said:

    He's...naïve. Perhaps childlike is a better way of putting it. He quotes from science-fiction novels ("...that hideous strength..."), holds childlike views ("wouldn't you prefer to trade with your friends"), has a simple, innocent faith in his view of the world and believes that those who disagree are bad and anything that goes wrong is due to bad people. Such simple faith is admirable but perhaps not best suited to positions of responsibility.

    Parenthetically, you could describe quite a few modern pols as man-children: Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, and of course Boris. May, for all her problems (list available upon request) is at least a grown-up.
    Clearly you know very little about him. He certainly doesn't think that those who disagree with him are bad nor that failures are due to bad people. If you actually bothered to read any of his writings you would find his position is far closer to that of many Lib Dems than it is to classic Tories.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Elliot said:

    The UN would have more credibility on such matters if Saudi Arabia wasn't on their human rights council.
    It seems as though the UN envoy is a junior academic.

    Her publication list includes

    Migration as Decolonization; Governing Xenophobia; The Fact of Xenophobia and the Fiction of State Sovereignty: Syria and the Responsibility to Protect Refugees: Structural Xenophobic Discrimination

    Perusing these documents, it is clear she believes that migration is the legitimate dismantling of economic inequality originating in the European colonial project.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bad news for automated check outs in supermarkets - the luddites are coming.

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/995063500677484546?s=21
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    It seems as though the UN envoy is a junior academic.

    Her publication list includes

    Migration as Decolonization; Governing Xenophobia; The Fact of Xenophobia and the Fiction of State Sovereignty: Syria and the Responsibility to Protect Refugees: Structural Xenophobic Discrimination

    Perusing these documents, it is clear she believes that migration is the legitimate dismantling of economic inequality originating in the European colonial project.
    The Guardian has recent form for publicising junior academics as “experts”.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    The PB Tories.

    Unspoofable.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I think we deserve to see a definitive list.

    Or perhaps posters could self-identify as their former selves?
    This is the one post where +1 is justified.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TGOHF said:

    Bad news for automated check outs in supermarkets - the luddites are coming.

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/995063500677484546?s=21

    TGOHF said:

    Bad news for automated check outs in supermarkets - the luddites are coming.

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/995063500677484546?s=21

    Just throwing a philosophical question out there.

    If people are taxed on their work, why shouldn’t robots be?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    TGOHF said:

    Bad news for automated check outs in supermarkets - the luddites are coming.

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/995063500677484546?s=21

    "If there is no robot heaven then where do all the calculators go when they die?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    Anazina said:

    Just throwing a philosophical question out there.

    If people are taxed on their work, why shouldn’t robots be?
    What benefits do robots get?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    Anazina said:

    The PB Tories.

    Unspoofable.

    Of course. Only accept the real McCoy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688

    "If there is no robot heaven then where do all the calculators go when they die?"
    "Do Corbynites dream of steam-powered sheep?"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    RobD said:

    What benefits do robots get?
    Define a robot. Should a teasmaid pay tax? What about your smart phone? Is Siri going to be raided at dawn by Customs and Excise?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Anazina said:

    Just throwing a philosophical question out there.

    If people are taxed on their work, why shouldn’t robots be?
    Because as a practical solution to what might be a serious political problem in the relatively near future, it’s utterly impractical compared to the other means of taxation available ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anazina said:

    The PB Tories.

    Unspoofable.

    What have they done now?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419

    Define a robot. Should a teasmaid pay tax? What about your smart phone? Is Siri going to be raided at dawn by Customs and Excise?
    Taxes almost always target the moment when money changes hands: from person to corporation (VAT), from corporation to person (income tax), etc. This is because this is the point at which value can be assessed.

    What is the value that is being assessed in the case of a robot? Will it be based on notional output? How is that measured in the case that a robot is perhaps one tenth of a production line? If a man presses a button and a machine acts, is that a robot? What differentiates a robot from an automated production line?

    And most importantly: surely the output from a robot is already taxed through the profits of a firm? And if it is not, perhaps the problem is the way corporation tax is avoided, rather than the existence of robots.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    No googling.

    Late night quiz question: three men served as cabinet ministers continually from the beginning of Blair's Premiership in 1997, to the end of Brown's in 2010.

    Jack Straw goes without saying, but who are the other two?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    rcs1000 said:

    No googling.

    Late night quiz question: three men served as cabinet ministers continually from the beginning of Blair's Premiership in 1997, to the end of Brown's in 2010.

    Jack Straw goes without saying, but who are the other two?

    Is the PM technically a Cabinet minister? :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    RobD said:

    Is the PM technically a Cabinet minister? :p
    Yes, and very good, you just knocked off one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, and very good, you just knocked off one.
    I have no clue about the other one. I know Reid had a lot of positions, but not sure if he was in the Cabinet way back in '97.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    I totally cheated and looked it up. I should have remembered him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    RobD said:

    I totally cheated and looked it up. I should have remembered him.

    Move over...
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, and very good, you just knocked off one.
    Knocked off two?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    New thread...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    No googling.

    Late night quiz question: three men served as cabinet ministers continually from the beginning of Blair's Premiership in 1997, to the end of Brown's in 2010.

    Jack Straw goes without saying, but who are the other two?

    Did Charlie Faulkner ever resign?
This discussion has been closed.