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Trend chart of Survation voting intention polls since GE17 pic.twitter.com/Eted64NFaQ
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords
It'll be fine, but both the EU and UK governing forces need actually to do some stuff. That is a rather nasty shock.
Government mostly does fuck all. Euro-Government perhaps less. Just about now they might for the first time earn their pay. Panic!!
I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.
Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
Gove and Davis are both MPs and in the cabinet. Hannan is not. Your criticism is irrational.
There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.
I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.
They need to convert 2017 Tory voters next time and there is little evidence of that so far
Anything.
It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
During the first 12 months after the vote, Britain confirmed with the various countries that have trade deals with the EU that the same deals would continue. It also used that time to agree much more liberal terms with those states which had run up against EU protectionism, including India, China and Australia. These new treaties came into effect shortly after independence. Britain, like the EFTA countries, now combines global free trade with full participation in EU markets.
I just expect Leavers who campaigned for it to put their shoulders to the wheel and get stuck in, not snipe from the sidelines.
North of the Black Pudding line is different!
It's like the distinction between what I would call political behaviours rather than partisan behaviours, that is the former will be used by all sides, the latter has to be something specific to one side. A meme capable of being used by all surely cannot be classed as an X meme. If Tories use emojis more does that make emojis a Tory thing? Will anyone who used a generic meme or emoji then be seen to be a Tory?
I know it is a tiny, petty thing, but it bugs me as it just doesn't make sense to me.
Johnson 11 / 14
Javid 15 / 17
Why? Just because a pollster got GE X right, does that mean it is more likely to get GE X+1 right? Or is the whole thing just a random walk?
If the LibDems get a poor second they can use that to create a neck-and-neck bar chart at the next GE.
Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.
This is a fundamentally different constituency from others in London where the LD message often lands well. Don't be fooled by that massive Remain vote - the muddled Labour position on Brexit won't be putting off their voters.
Did we not just have an opinion poll of several million? Admittedly, it wasn’t a particularly balanced poll ( far too many of these mad Londoners ) but still it showed 35% all. The trend does not seem to be favouring Labour but I think that will do me for now.
Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
I may well be wrong of course, but experience suggests......
The fragility of the Conservative vote in some areas has been amply demonstrated - apart from Richmond and Kingston where the Conservative performance was as bad as during the mid 90s, we had Tandridge where the Conservatives shipped nine seats.
There are enough warning signals for Conservatives not to make any assumptions about the 2019 locals or anything else nor to get too excited about a finger-tip lead (which they had in July 2017 before losing it).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5716987/London-bus-drivers-racist-road-rage-rant-van-driver-caught-camera.html
It is a major problem for us. And interrupting the flow of goods in any material way is a major issue for them, no matter what the politicians say.
Being a London bus driver isn't an easy job - having to deal with London's congested roads and often difficult passengers.
When it comes to labelling things hate crimes some perspective is also needed. Is saying white this or black that actually worse than saying I want to smash your face in without a racial reference. Sticks and stones and all that.
Still the bus driver was obviously a remain voter!!
https://youtu.be/PTgYSwlRrEU
But living there for years, you get used to a general set of hard-left cultural assumptions that just run quietly through most of the locals. Try as I might, I just can't picture most of them voting for anybody other than Labour and, moreover, this is an area where I'd imagine Corbyn increases rather than reduces the Labour vote (though not much use to them in a General Election, as this seat is safely in the bag anyway).
My prediction would be for the LDs to finish third. This may technically be a metropolitan seat, but it's not a constituency with a metropolitan mindset. Plus I don't think the Conservative vote, such as it is, will collapse. Their position is no worse now than it was at GE2017.
Even the UN are getting involved,maybe these people were not around before brexit when the BNP were gaining support or the number of racist attacks on me and my family.
UK has seen 'Brexit-related' growth in racism, says UN representative
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/uk-has-seen-brexit-related-growth-in-racism-says-un-representative
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/22/the-newspaper-front-pages-as-they-come-in/
Edit: see that @Ishmael_Z beat me to it
I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
Casino RoyaleI think the phenomenon of voters calling for the real facts are similar to those of calling for politicians to be honest.
If being honest got politicians votes, they would be honest; if telling the real facts got both Remain and Leave votes, then they would tell the real facts.
In reality, both groups will do what they feel they need to in order to maximise their chances of most votes.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/06/gove-pushes-boris-out-off-the-top-slot-in-conhoms-latest-next-con-leader-survey/
Hence “unspoofable” means “impossible to create a deception” not “can’t be deceived”
https://twitter.com/mrtomwilletts/status/995039653483999234?s=21