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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with ma

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Scott_P said:
    Another by-election? Surely sensible, rock-solid old labour Barnsley wont put some latte-drinking Corbynista up for MP will they?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Giuliani joining Trump's legal team was a master stroke.

    https://twitter.com/ReutersPolitics/status/992410528625713153
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    A Labour minority government on the basis of this highly satisfactory result for Labour has emerged as a real possibility but these elections will be remembered for the Tory shambles of Voter ID,which could well have swung it for the Tories in Swindon where it was so close.

    FFS stop spreading utter bollocks.

    All Swindon voters had to do was turn up with their polling cards. That is it. If people didn't, they only had themselves to blame. And they had the option of returning home, collecting their polling cards and returning to vote.

    That is not a shambles. That is not disenfranchising ANYONE.

    Just stop with the relentless bollocks you are spouting on this subject.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:
    Harrow is beginning to look interesting.
    Maybe I am not just used to twitter but have the Tories not won every seat so far? Obviously depends what wards these are.
    If Labour lose Kenton East, they probably lose the Council.
    It'll take a bit more than that with the Labour gains in Harrow on the Hill.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,998
    Surprised it took a recount for Jarvis to get the gig in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire. Who ran him close?
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    A Labour minority government on the basis of this highly satisfactory result for Labour has emerged as a real possibility but these elections will be remembered for the Tory shambles of Voter ID,which could well have swung it for the Tories in Swindon where it was so close.

    It'll be remembered as the time the Labour Party made Jewish voters so afraid that they kicked them in the ballots.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2018

    kle4 said:

    An unwisely vague choice of phrase perhaps - she's given up trying to convince them so is going to join the Tories?
    She'd be better off joining the Liberals in Yardley!
    Well I didn't seriously think she would ever contemplate going Tory, but I am seriously shocked her tweet is not filled with 'Well you should just join the Tories, you b*tch' type comments in reply. Twitter, I owe you an apology for once

    A Labour minority government on the basis of this highly satisfactory result for Labour has emerged as a real possibility but these elections will be remembered for the Tory shambles of Voter ID,which could well have swung it for the Tories in Swindon where it was so close.

    One, while they are hardly a disaster I don't know how the result could be called highly satisfactory for Labour given they did clearly fall short of some key targets (not all easy, but missing most of them has to have been less than satisfactory) even if Tory elation in relief should be tempered and two, I don't think the elections will be remembered for that - I spent the night doing updates and following twitter feeds commenting on the elections, and I barely saw any comments to that effect even during the dull period before results started coming in. I'm no gung ho supporter of the trialed measures, but I also don't think, at present, there has been such a failure as to outrage, particularly since so many complaints have been absurdly hyperbolic.

    Certainly if it were to be the thing these elections are remembered for I think we'd be seeing more of it right now. More may emerge, but we'd have seen more by now. The Labour group leader in Swindon is not even quoted as commenting on it in the BBC write up, and I think he would have given it was so close.

    Also, a Labour minority, at the least, was already a real possibility before these elections given the state of play.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    A Labour minority government on the basis of this highly satisfactory result for Labour has emerged as a real possibility but these elections will be remembered for the Tory shambles of Voter ID,which could well have swung it for the Tories in Swindon where it was so close.

    https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/nothing_to_see_here_naked_gun.gif
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    Early results from the good ol' RBK are looking good for the LDs: by my reckoning they've picked up 5 seats from the Tories and 2 from Labour in the first five wards to declare.
    Lib Dems up 54 now. Catching Labour again. They are going to miss out their credit due to this late reporting.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Scott_P said:
    Another by-election? Surely sensible, rock-solid old labour Barnsley wont put some latte-drinking Corbynista up for MP will they?
    They had an enormous argument, Jarvis is staying
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:
    Harrow is beginning to look interesting.
    Maybe I am not just used to twitter but have the Tories not won every seat so far? Obviously depends what wards these are.
    If Labour lose Kenton East, they probably lose the Council.
    It'll take a bit more than that with the Labour gains in Harrow on the Hill.
    Lab gain from LD in Rayner's Lane
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Scott_P said:
    Another by-election? Surely sensible, rock-solid old labour Barnsley wont put some latte-drinking Corbynista up for MP will they?
    I believe , he can do both jobs .http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-43629325 I hope they eventually get to a Yorkshire mayor.





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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    At what time is Tower Hamlets expected to finish the count?

    Sorry, rephrasing, which day TH is expected to finish?

    From 2014 ? ....

    :smile:
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Surprised it took a recount for Jarvis to get the gig in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire. Who ran him close?

    Nobody.

    Jarvis took 48% of the first count and his second count majority was close to 100,000.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Islington is 47 Labour and 1 Green I see. At least there's some opposition, I'm not a fan of one party councils, even though if that is what the locals want that's what you get.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories
    They gained Three Rivers from NOC according to the BBC
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,998
    Mr. W, yeah, just saw that and was about to correct myself.

    Still quite surprising, though. South Yorkshire is redder than a baboon's bottom (unlike North Yorkshire, which is bluer than a drowning smurf).
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Hopefully Tories won't get wiped out in Tower Hamlets council. Very hard for a party to come back once they are completely wiped out. Even if you hold one seat it is much easier to re-build. Look at the lib dems...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,286
    The Combined Authority Mayor is enough of a non-job that Jarvis can do both

    Though it would have been better to have elected Jarvis Cocker to the position
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2018

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories
    I thought Three Rivers was from NOC?

    But those results are the principle reason it is not an unqualified good night for the Tories.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Second round Sheffield Metro


    Dan Jarvis (Lab) 72%
    Ian Walker (Con) 28%

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,483
    DavidL said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    Early results from the good ol' RBK are looking good for the LDs: by my reckoning they've picked up 5 seats from the Tories and 2 from Labour in the first five wards to declare.
    Lib Dems up 54 now. Catching Labour again. They are going to miss out their credit due to this late reporting.
    Might change narrative in coming months though.

    If I were Labour I’d be worried they might start to peel off 3-4% of my 40%.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    JackW said:

    Surprised it took a recount for Jarvis to get the gig in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire. Who ran him close?

    Nobody.

    Jarvis took 48% of the first count and his second count majority was close to 100,000.
    Do the City Region Mayoral candidates have to put down a deposit? Sometimes recounts are given to candidates on the cusp of retaining their deposit.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, yeah, just saw that and was about to correct myself.

    Still quite surprising, though. South Yorkshire is redder than a baboon's bottom (unlike North Yorkshire, which is bluer than a drowning smurf).

    Your complete familiarity with a baboon's bottom will be noted on your file.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Given they do so well at the Watford mayoralty, I'm a little surprised the LDs are so out of contention there at parliamentary level.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    Given they do so well at the Watford mayoralty, I'm a little surprised the LDs are so out of contention there at parliamentary level.

    The Tories don't have any seats on the local council yet they have the MP. Unusual.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories
    I thought Three Rivers was from NOC?

    But those results are the principle reason it is not an unqualified good night for the Tories.
    A quick furtle around Wikipedia suggests it was only NOC because of a defection from the LD group.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    nunuone said:

    Hopefully Tories won't get wiped out in Tower Hamlets council. Very hard for a party to come back once they are completely wiped out. Even if you hold one seat it is much easier to re-build. Look at the lib dems...

    It's Blackwall and Cubbitt town - I expect them to be in trouble. Young, reasonably affluent, pro remain - plenty of LD switchers
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    The Combined Authority Mayor is enough of a non-job that Jarvis can do both

    Though it would have been better to have elected Jarvis Cocker to the position

    I think in fairness it doesn't even have a budget yet. Or an office. Or any clear responsibilities. Really weird it was thought worth electing anyone until these little details were in place.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories
    I thought Three Rivers was from NOC?

    But those results are the principle reason it is not an unqualified good night for the Tories.
    A quick furtle around Wikipedia suggests it was only NOC because of a defection from the LD group.
    I was surprised to see it as NOC, as there are very few LD controlled councils so the names tend to stick in the mind, so that makes sense.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    DavidL said:

    The Combined Authority Mayor is enough of a non-job that Jarvis can do both

    Though it would have been better to have elected Jarvis Cocker to the position

    I think in fairness it doesn't even have a budget yet. Or an office. Or any clear responsibilities. Really weird it was thought worth electing anyone until these little details were in place.
    A mockery of the franchise.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited May 2018

    Mr. W, yeah, just saw that and was about to correct myself.

    Still quite surprising, though. South Yorkshire is redder than a baboon's bottom (unlike North Yorkshire, which is bluer than a drowning smurf).

    Norh Yorkshire is true blue apart from the red bit in the middle York Central.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Yikes! Tories down to just 3 seats in Brent! That is really bad for the local party they could be doing much better among middle class Asians. Even Harrow still has a respectable number of Tories left in Asian wards.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Greens in Norwich are equal to or greater than lol now
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    DavidL said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    Early results from the good ol' RBK are looking good for the LDs: by my reckoning they've picked up 5 seats from the Tories and 2 from Labour in the first five wards to declare.
    Lib Dems up 54 now. Catching Labour again. They are going to miss out their credit due to this late reporting.
    Might change narrative in coming months though.

    If I were Labour I’d be worried they might start to peel off 3-4% of my 40%.
    Or they peel the remain Tories of 3-4 % of their 42% .
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Blimey, this has to sting given who is saying it:

    Dan Hodges: OK, I know he can be pretty robust himself. But can we dial down the @OwenJones84 abuse a bit. It was pretty unedifying to see everyone dancing on Amber Rudd's grave a few days ago. Same here.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    Early results from the good ol' RBK are looking good for the LDs: by my reckoning they've picked up 5 seats from the Tories and 2 from Labour in the first five wards to declare.
    Lib Dems up 54 now. Catching Labour again. They are going to miss out their credit due to this late reporting.
    Might change narrative in coming months though.

    If I were Labour I’d be worried they might start to peel off 3-4% of my 40%.
    Or they peel the remain Tories of 3-4 % of their 42% .
    It's plausible. They've no reason to get comfortable.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    The results of the South Yorkshire Mayer election look strange, it whet to second round but the final resort:

    Jarvis (Lab): 144,154
    Walker (Con) 50,615

    Total votes 260,260

    There, there must have been a lot of people voting in the first round, for small party that then did not vote in the second round, and virtually all those that did switched to Jarvis, but BBC not giving the results of round one. anybody know the full Results of round one?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    The S Cambs result looks like the oddity of the night.

    Has Heidi Allen with her constant sniping at her own party encouraged the dyed in the wool blue rinses in her constituency to think long and hard? (I'm not objecting, I like her very much and am aligned with her thinking - she could be leader...)

    Or is it NIMBYism about green belt? Can't all be down to Brexit can it?

    That said, having a look at the geography, it looks very much like a rural sprawling seat into which lefty Cambridge city is slowing spilling over - it seems to include now the growing suburbs of the city itself?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Labour went into these local elections in control of 78 councils.

    The current situation is they have 65 councils with 12 to declare, (138 out of 150 in). That means that even if Labour wins all 12 councils still to come, they'll end up with fewer councils than they started with.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    And they also gained three, maybe four, councils.
    It has got better and better for them I think. Slightly flattered by a catastrophe in 2014 but definitely more progress than they might have feared with Kingston to come.
    Early results from the good ol' RBK are looking good for the LDs: by my reckoning they've picked up 5 seats from the Tories and 2 from Labour in the first five wards to declare.
    Lib Dems up 54 now. Catching Labour again. They are going to miss out their credit due to this late reporting.
    Might change narrative in coming months though.

    If I were Labour I’d be worried they might start to peel off 3-4% of my 40%.
    Or they peel the remain Tories of 3-4 % of their 42% .
    Or they accept they are a couple of % off the low of coalition and below the 2017 NEV
    To hear them on the beeb you'd think they were turning the map yellow and gaining Newcastle central
    They won't break 15 seats with Cable
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Interesting tonal change on the same story in different places on the BBC. On the main news page the main headline is 'Leaders upbeat despite lack of big gains', but click on the politics tab and the main headline there is 'Labour fail to make significant inroads', though the summary underneath is the same,about the two leaders focusing on their successes on a mixed night.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2018
    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Yorkcity said:

    Mr. W, yeah, just saw that and was about to correct myself.

    Still quite surprising, though. South Yorkshire is redder than a baboon's bottom (unlike North Yorkshire, which is bluer than a drowning smurf).

    Norh Yorkshire is true blue apart from the red bit in the middle York Central.
    Even Smurfs have to have an arse.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Thornberry on the beeb. Run!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    edited May 2018
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947

    The S Cambs result looks like the oddity of the night.

    Has Heidi Allen with her constant sniping at her own party encouraged the dyed in the wool blue rinses in her constituency to think long and hard? (I'm not objecting, I like her very much and am aligned with her thinking - she could be leader...)

    Or is it NIMBYism about green belt? Can't all be down to Brexit can it?

    It was 60% remain I believe is the reported figure, so pro remain but not overwhelmingly so, so I'd assume without any local knowledge that a number factors contributed, with Brexit being a small part of it.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,942
    BigRich said:

    The results of the South Yorkshire Mayer election look strange, it whet to second round but the final resort:

    Jarvis (Lab): 144,154
    Walker (Con) 50,615

    Total votes 260,260

    There, there must have been a lot of people voting in the first round, for small party that then did not vote in the second round, and virtually all those that did switched to Jarvis, but BBC not giving the results of round one. anybody know the full Results of round one?

    Jarvis got 48% or so in Round One.

    He is the only Labour mayor who is an MP. That makes him worth watching, especially given where he represents. There is a reason why the NEC was so keen to ensure he could not do both jobs.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,942

    The Combined Authority Mayor is enough of a non-job that Jarvis can do both

    Though it would have been better to have elected Jarvis Cocker to the position

    It's Jarvis's to mould and he gets the chance to build himself a powerbase.

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    CosmicCosmic Posts: 26

    The S Cambs result looks like the oddity of the night.

    Has Heidi Allen with her constant sniping at her own party encouraged the dyed in the wool blue rinses in her constituency to think long and hard? (I'm not objecting, I like her very much and am aligned with her thinking - she could be leader...)

    Or is it NIMBYism about green belt? Can't all be down to Brexit can it?

    That said, having a look at the geography, it looks very much like a rural sprawling seat into which lefty Cambridge city is slowing spilling over - it seems to include now the growing suburbs of the city itself?

    When I lived there (until last year) it was very remain-y due to lots of young professional commuters, students and Europeans (addenbrookes hospital staff?).

    My village also had issues with gypsies and the Lib Dems capitalised on it to attack the Tories.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The S Cambs result looks like the oddity of the night.

    Has Heidi Allen with her constant sniping at her own party encouraged the dyed in the wool blue rinses in her constituency to think long and hard? (I'm not objecting, I like her very much and am aligned with her thinking - she could be leader...)

    Or is it NIMBYism about green belt? Can't all be down to Brexit can it?

    That said, having a look at the geography, it looks very much like a rural sprawling seat into which lefty Cambridge city is slowing spilling over - it seems to include now the growing suburbs of the city itself?

    It had one of the highest Remain votes in the country, even higher than some London boroughs.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    In the West Tyrone by-election it's interesting that both Sinn Fein and the DUP lost ground but there was an aggregate swing away from the unionists.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966

    There is a reason why the NEC was so keen to ensure he could not do both jobs.

    Jarvis staying on as an MP demonstrates utter contempt for the mayoral position. Obviously he can carry on as long as he likes seeing as Barnsley Central would elect a red doughnut if it stood and so would the Sheffield City region.
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    JackW said:

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
    BBC mentions boundary changes as part of it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,998
    Mr. Urquhart, nicer than what he said to McVey.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited May 2018
    nunuone said:

    Yikes! Tories down to just 3 seats in Brent! That is really bad for the local party they could be doing much better among middle class Asians. Even Harrow still has a respectable number of Tories left in Asian wards.

    There's a different type of "Asian" in Brent vs Harrow. The latter are more successful and tend to be business owners or work in very well paid jobs, in Brent there is more poverty and, unfortunately, they see themselves as victims. I don't know exactly why that is the case but speak to an Indian from Wembley and then speak to an Indian from Stanmore, the difference is absolutely massive. I think in Brent there tend to be more Indians who have come directly from India while in Harrow the Indians have arrived via East or South Africa as British citizens or commonwealth citizens.

    It's just a theory, but I think it fits. Indians and other south Asians who have benefited from being citizens of the empire tend to be much more open towards voting for the Conservatives. I think my family, TSE, Sajid Javid and others are a very good example of that, those who have come more recently or didn't benefit from that tend more towards traditional minority voting and go towards Labour.

    I think we need to find a way to helping later Asian migrants to be as successful as those who arrived in the 50s and 60s like my family and so many others from Kenya and Uganda.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    A Labour minority government on the basis of this highly satisfactory result for Labour has emerged as a real possibility but these elections will be remembered for the Tory shambles of Voter ID,which could well have swung it for the Tories in Swindon where it was so close.

    ho ho - spinning like a top

    Your parties expectation management was awful

    oh and your party's anti - semitism in the public eye - yet again
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    JackW said:

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
    Sorry to interrupt, but it voted 60% Remain, one of the highest outside the big cities. And it's next to Cambridge.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    JackW said:

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
    REMAINing
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    It was overblown as I recall, but in any case is putting a hand up really sexism? Men and women unconsciously do it when trying to cut across someone else all the time (I do recall Chi Onwurah doing it last night on QT while trying to get a word in edgeways at some shouty bloke, before giving up). I mean, the story has an image of McDonnell with his hand out toward Perry, immediately followed by one of her doing the same to him.

    I'm no fan of McDonnell, and frankly he shouldn't be able to live down his McVey comments however much he clearly would prefer people stop bringing it up, but the headline is also very misleading. "Get back in your box woman': Labour's John McDonnell embroiled in extraordinary on-air election night row" makes it look like he outright said that.


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    The only conclusion I'm drawing from these results is that Lib/Lab/Con all need new leaders. If any of them could crack the leadership issue, it would at least break the stalemate.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    There is a reason why the NEC was so keen to ensure he could not do both jobs.

    Jarvis staying on as an MP demonstrates utter contempt for the mayoral position. Obviously he can carry on as long as he likes seeing as Barnsley Central would elect a red doughnut if it stood and so would the Sheffield City region.
    The Sheffield Mayoralty is a blank canvas and Jarvis made it clear he would remain an MP. Seems the voters didn't take offence.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    He definitely didn't like it when she wouldn't do as she was told.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Re: Wandsworth - Curtice said that on yesterday's votes Battersea would revert to the Tories
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour hold the majority in Birmingham
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    William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,942
    Looks like Momentum's takeover has cost Labour seats in Haringey.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    It was overblown as I recall, but in any case is putting a hand up really sexism? Men and women unconsciously do it when trying to cut across someone else all the time (I do recall Chi Onwurah doing it last night on QT while trying to get a word in edgeways at some shouty bloke, before giving up). I mean, the story has an image of McDonnell with his hand out toward Perry, immediately followed by one of her doing the same to him.

    I'm no fan of McDonnell, and frankly he shouldn't be able to live down his McVey comments however much he clearly would prefer people stop bringing it up, but the headline is also very misleading. "Get back in your box woman': Labour's John McDonnell embroiled in extraordinary on-air election night row" makes it look like he outright said that.


    He just shouted over her and used very direct body language in her direction. She had been needling him for the entire show and he let his anger boil over. If it had been the other way round - Male Tory trying to shut up a Labour Woman - then Twitter would have gone into melt down.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
    Sorry to interrupt, but it voted 60% Remain, one of the highest outside the big cities. And it's next to Cambridge.
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    The LDs will end up gaining
    S Cambs
    Three Rivers
    Richmond
    Kingston

    All from the Tories

    Mike do you know why South Cambs has surged to the yellow peril ?
    Sorry to interrupt, but it voted 60% Remain, one of the highest outside the big cities. And it's next to Cambridge.
    Clearly but whilst that explains a useful platform it would mean that the LibDems would sweep all remain areas with ease or come close to doing so, and that hasn't happened.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jonathan said:


    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    It was popular with Conservatives. It wasn't popular with Lib Dem voters.

    The absolute conviction of Lib Dem MPs (and obvioulsy lots of former MPs) that the Coalition was popular with its voters and that its voters were demanding, nay champing at the bit for, a coalition with the Tories is the most insane collective delusion who's power over them I cannot explain.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,888
    According to the Guardian Cons have moved up to 24/48 in Elmbridge, effectively another gain.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,483

    Labour hold the majority in Birmingham

    Final/projected Brum score?
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    Looks like Momentum's takeover has cost Labour seats in Haringey.

    Crouch End has fallen.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
    The video doesn't show the 2 minutes leading up to this incident - it does help to view it in full context.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:


    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    It was popular with Conservatives. It wasn't popular with Lib Dem voters.

    The absolute conviction of Lib Dem MPs (and obvioulsy lots of former MPs) that the Coalition was popular with its voters and that its voters were demanding, nay champing at the bit for, a coalition with the Tories is the most insane collective delusion who's power over them I cannot explain.
    Did they think they were champing at the bit for a coalition with the Tories, or did they merely think that as they had said they would consider working with whoever came out on top, and because ostensibly they were centrist, not labour-lite, that they would be able to carry more of their voters along with the idea of coalition, assuming they could convince the doubters they had gotten a good deal for the arrangement?

    If they were never going to contemplate working with anyone but Labour in a coalition that was open to them, but they should have been upfront about that, since at least some of their voters would have supported them on the basis they thought the idea of a Con-Dem coalition was the best option, and should at least be considered. Me, for a start.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
    The video doesn't show the 2 minutes leading up to this incident - it does help to view it in full context.
    If the full context makes McDonnell look worse, then I do wonder why the Mail didn't include it - unable to?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2018
    In the light of the GE2017 shock in Maidstone, it's Interesting that the Conservatives made gains there this time: Con +3, LD -2, Lab +1, Ind -2

    Oops, my mistake!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Looks like Momentum's takeover has cost Labour seats in Haringey.

    Crouch End has fallen.
    All hope is lost ....
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    In the light of the GE2017 shock in Maidstone, it's Interesting that the Conservatives made gains there this time: Con +3, LD -2, Lab +1, Ind -2

    I thought the shock result in Kent at GE2017 was Canterbury, not Maidstone.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Chameleon said:

    According to the Guardian Cons have moved up to 24/48 in Elmbridge, effectively another gain.

    That'll be frustrating for them, it would have been handy for the total of councils lost/gained to be at least neutral for them, since you don't get points on the spreadsheet for in effect gains.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
    The video doesn't show the 2 minutes leading up to this incident - it does help to view it in full context.
    If the full context makes McDonnell look worse, then I do wonder why the Mail didn't include it - unable to?
    It just shows what Perry was trying to say and what prompted him to get shouty and pointy. It makes it far clearly what he was trying to prevent being said live on air.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:


    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    It was popular with Conservatives. It wasn't popular with Lib Dem voters.

    The absolute conviction of Lib Dem MPs (and obvioulsy lots of former MPs) that the Coalition was popular with its voters and that its voters were demanding, nay champing at the bit for, a coalition with the Tories is the most insane collective delusion who's power over them I cannot explain.
    If the Lib Dems aren't going to become junior partners in a coalition then what is the point of them?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:


    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    It was popular with Conservatives. It wasn't popular with Lib Dem voters.

    The absolute conviction of Lib Dem MPs (and obvioulsy lots of former MPs) that the Coalition was popular with its voters and that its voters were demanding, nay champing at the bit for, a coalition with the Tories is the most insane collective delusion who's power over them I cannot explain.
    But that was because the LibDems spent the entire five years whingeing about how awful it was being in coalition with these nasty Tories. rather than celebrating and promoting the fact that after half a century they'd finally got the kind of coalition politics they'd been arguing for. It's hardly surprising therefore that voters decided to relieve them of the necessity of repeating the experience next time round.
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    justin124 said:


    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    Even senior front-benchers are bemused by the lack of action, Thornberry just now :

    "I don't know why we've been dragging our feet but we have."

    She adds: "It's about actions - people are very pragmatic. This stuff hasn’t been dealt with and we’re going to do that as it takes many different forms.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    John Leech takes one of his running mates with him but the third seat stay Labour

    Everything else so far held by Labour in Manchester.

    Likely to finish 94 Lab, 2 LD
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rpjs said:

    In the light of the GE2017 shock in Maidstone, it's Interesting that the Conservatives made gains there this time: Con +3, LD -2, Lab +1, Ind -2

    I thought the shock result in Kent at GE2017 was Canterbury, not Maidstone.
    Oops, my mistake, you are right of course!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2018

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
    The video doesn't show the 2 minutes leading up to this incident - it does help to view it in full context.
    If the full context makes McDonnell look worse, then I do wonder why the Mail didn't include it - unable to?
    It just shows what Perry was trying to say and what prompted him to get shouty and pointy. It makes it far clearly what he was trying to prevent being said live on air.
    So nothing really to back up purported sexism, just the (entirely unsurprising) point that he's an arsehole, and would act to try to prevent people saying things he doesn't like?

    As I said, he might be a sexist, but even for a newspaper headline I think the Mail have stretched the presentation a bit too much there, giving the appearance of a direct, blatantly sexist quote.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    The only conclusion I'm drawing from these results is that Lib/Lab/Con all need new leaders. If any of them could crack the leadership issue, it would at least break the stalemate.

    Yes that is a fair assessment.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    In the light of the GE2017 shock in Maidstone, it's Interesting that the Conservatives made gains there this time: Con +3, LD -2, Lab +1, Ind -2

    I thought the shock result in Kent at GE2017 was Canterbury, not Maidstone.
    Oops, my mistake, you are right of course!
    No elections in Canterbury DC this year sadly.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,483

    Looks like Momentum's takeover has cost Labour seats in Haringey.

    Crouch End has fallen.
    Worst Gerard Butler sequel ever.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Revising numbers - now #Labour sources saying expected to get between 57-63 seats out of 101

    Boundary changes but approximately the status quo
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    William_H said:

    Does McIRA have a problem with women?

    'Get back in your box woman'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5690493/John-McDonnell-Claire-Perry-air-election-row.html

    I seemed to remember Dave saying "calm down dear" in PMQs and it being a national scandal....

    That's impressively misleading reporting. McDonnell didn't say that, Perry complained about him making gestures.
    and talking over her to be fair
    He may well be a sexist, but politicians of any gender talk over each other all the time, so that is hardly evidence of it even if he is.

    I truly don't like defending John McDonnell, and he has earned plenty of justifiable attacks for things he has said and done, but talking over Perry and holding out a hand is not really the same as him saying 'get back in your box, woman'. Do we seriously think if it had been a man saying the same things as Perry he would not have tried talking over them and holding out a hand?
    The video doesn't show the 2 minutes leading up to this incident - it does help to view it in full context.
    If the full context makes McDonnell look worse, then I do wonder why the Mail didn't include it - unable to?
    It just shows what Perry was trying to say and what prompted him to get shouty and pointy. It makes it far clearly what he was trying to prevent being said live on air.
    So nothing really to back up purported sexism, just the (entirely unsurprising) point that he's an arsehole, and would act to try to prevent people saying things he doesn't like?

    As I said, he might be a sexist, but even for a newspaper headline I think the Mail have stretched the presentation a bit too much there, giving the appearance of a direct, blatantly sexist quote.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0b16sfx/election-2018-part-one - watch from 2 hours 10 minutes - that shows all that happens.

    I didn't say it showed him as being sexist - but you see the sudden flash of anger and that is what is unacceptable.
This discussion has been closed.