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The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.Pulpstar said:I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.0 -
Looking at the feed Labour seem to be pulling away in Brum0
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I've not looked at the 2014 results, just comparing 2018 to electoral calculus.AndyJS said:
The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.Pulpstar said:I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.
The Tory councillor in Abbey sticks out like a sore (For Labour) thumb.0 -
In cricket news Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow, Tom Westley, and Alastair Cook have fallen for seven runs between them this morning. Yorkshire skittled for 50.0
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I would be interesting to get reports of how the mass canvas actually went as far as the individual one-to-one doorstep conversations went. Owen's army of momentum look to be in the main very young, student-types. Very sincere and enthusiastic no doubt, but how did they deal with the average voters usual 'they're all the same', 'what's the point', 'i don't follow it mate', 'when you gonna stop dogs shitting on my path' etc etc. Must have been quite a come down.Sean_F said:
You're quite right. Half a dozen competent locals achieve far more than 100 outsiders.RochdalePioneers said:Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.
My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.
What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...0 -
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If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.0
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Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.
The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?0 -
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Press Association figures against last week rather than 2014:
Conservatives: 31 councils; 892 seats (-26)
Labour: 52 councils (-1); 1,444 seats (+59)
LibDems: 4 councils (+1); 327 seats (+40)
Green: 22 seats (+7)
UKIP: 3 seats (-47)
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I know this might be a bit pointless but that doesn't make any sense. Labour are losing out to the Tories because they are being seen as backsliding on Brexit, offering a second referendum would be suicide. You might want that, but reality is not the same as what you want. In fact, this might make Corbyn feel as though he was right to pursue a harder Brexit before he got ambushed into supporting the CU by Starmer and the other Labour remainers.williamglenn said:If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.
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Canada in fact appears to allow two other alternatives to photo ID, includingBigRich said:
is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?Ishmael_Z said:
If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?rural_voter said:
Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.DecrepitJohnL said:
You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.Richard_Nabavi said:It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?
Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
producing documents with your address on
or
swearing an oath that you are John Smith of 3 Acacia Avenue.
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e
I might compromise on either having to produce a polling card or affirm. This could be introduced voluntarily in districts where the returning officer thinks fraud is a risk.0 -
I don't think this analysis is correct. There is very little evidence of LAB > CON switching going on. If anything Corbyn's Brexit policy is turning off Remainers.MaxPB said:
I know this might be a bit pointless but that doesn't make any sense. Labour are losing out to the Tories because they are being seen as backsliding on Brexit, offering a second referendum would be suicide. You might want that, but reality is not the same as what you want. In fact, this might make Corbyn feel as though he was right to pursue a harder Brexit before he got ambushed into supporting the CU by Starmer and the other Labour remainers.williamglenn said:If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.
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Until he changes his mind ... againrottenborough said:
Dunno, but sounds like Chukka just appeared on Sky News with virtually a sign above his head reading 'I am available.'Scott_P said:As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.
Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?0 -
05/04/2018 12:54dyedwoolie said:Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem
Tories could lose out
South Cambridgeshire MP Heidi Allen has said it's possible that the Conservative Party could lose control of South Cambridgeshire District Council today.
Brexit was top of most people's concerns on the doorstep according to the MP and could be the reason for the shift.0 -
Looking at the results from West Midlands - not great for Labour would be charitable0
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Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.
First time I've attended a count, it was an interesting experience.
Respect to those who make the whole process smooth and efficient.0 -
This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC onesAndyJS said:
They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.Pulpstar said:Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.
The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?0 -
Heidi Allen is pro-Remain, I wonder if that colours her view. We will know soon enoughlogical_song said:
05/04/2018 12:54dyedwoolie said:Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem
Tories could lose out
South Cambridgeshire MP Heidi Allen has said it's possible that the Conservative Party could lose control of South Cambridgeshire District Council today.
Brexit was top of most people's concerns on the doorstep according to the MP and could be the reason for the shift.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC onesAndyJS said:
They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.Pulpstar said:Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.
The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?
BBC not providing live updates to their table though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cpr6g35nne1t/birmingham-city-council
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Not to be confused with left winger Heidi AllenScott_P said:
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That East Lewisham ultramarginalScott_P said:0 -
I dunno, "We discipline people for racism" is potentially quite a sellable proposition at the moment.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Commiserations / congratulations...SandyRentool said:Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.
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And the slew of good riddance messages from lefties is already underway on Twitter.Scott_P said:
Lewisham E by-election probably not a big betting event tbh.0 -
I'm very pleased with the Lincoln results. We Lib Dems achieved huge increases in our vote share in both of the Labour held wards that we targeted - coming from 4th place to 2nd place in one of them and moving into a close 3rd in the other. We ran paper campaigns in the other 9 wards so nothing happened for us in those. The results in Carholme and in Abbey certainly show the difference a good campaign makes. It'll be all to play for when the same wards come up again next year.0
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Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a timeTheScreamingEagles said:
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Backbencher Jess Phillips slammed the leader's acolytes for portraying 'failure as victory', while another senior MP told MailOnline Labour was now seen as the 'nasty party
Yep - Labour the nasty party0 -
So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???0
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a real lol moment - thanks SunilSunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Thanks, I'll use those.MikeSmithson said:
This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC onesAndyJS said:
They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.Pulpstar said:Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.
The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?0 -
Say what you like about Hitler, but he was a great interior decorator.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
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With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
Yes, she has an alibi.AndyJS said:0 -
You're dragged away by work for only a couple of hours and UKIP win another seat! Is there going to be no end to the excitement?
I am surprised to see the Tories still in positive territory too. I would have expected London boroughs to have dragged them down by now.0 -
"You lost today, kid. But it doesn't mean you have to like it!"SandyRentool said:Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.
First time I've attended a count, it was an interesting experience.
Respect to those who make the whole process smooth and efficient.0 -
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And the PA habit of describing every seat for any party as a "gain" after re-warding is confusing. Birmingham is not suddenly going Tory. Or LibDem.Sean_F said:
There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.Pulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
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The only local election poll was in London and we haven't got all the results in yet from the capital.SquareRoot said:So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???
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Outside chance of it going rainbow, at best a Labour slim majorityNickPalmer said:
And the PA habit of describing every seat for any party as a "gain" after re-warding is confusing. Birmingham is not suddenly going Tory. Or LibDem.Sean_F said:
There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.Pulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
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Given that local government uses the FPTP system, it would be useful to know the percentage vote.AndyJS said:With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
It's theoretically possible for a party to win all wards by 55/45% and produce a one party state.
Anyone know if the sole Green councillor survived here?
https://islington.greenparty.org.uk/news/2018/04/20/caroline-lucas-visits-highbury/0 -
"Hitler. There was a painter. He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon. Two coats!"Sean_F said:
Say what you like about Hitler, but he was a great interior decorator.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
How is the poll looking given what we already know???AndyJS said:
The only local election poll was in London and we haven't got all the results in yet from the capital.SquareRoot said:So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???
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Just looking at NEV, it's a bit closer than the GE but would still put Tories as the biggest party, which is roughly what the national polls are telling us.SquareRoot said:How is the poll looking given what we already know???
Given that it's a local election in the early stages of a Parliament, you'd expect the Opposition to drop 3-4 points and the governing party to gain 6 points in the subsequent GE.
At this stage of the electoral cycle Labour really need to be doing better if they're to win in 2022.
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These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?0 -
The Tories still have a net gain of councillors? Not bad....0
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Spot on. When I am in a canvassing group bigger than 6 I feel seriously tempted to go home because I am going to do a lot more walking than talking. It just feels incredibly inefficient.RochdalePioneers said:Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.
My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.
What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...0 -
Good chance that Dan Jarvis will be forced into a second round in the S Yorks mayoral vote. Currently running at 45% from Doncaster and Rotherham.0
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In answer to that last question "let's keep quiet about this and not make waves until after the local elections" doesn't have a great ring to it does it?justin124 said:These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?0 -
The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.AndyJS said:
The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
Was anyone expecting that ?
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The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
or bothEl_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
Not any more. Tories gain Redditch.AndyJS said:With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
Either way, the likelihood is that the issue won't go away.El_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
But it is how politicians normally operate! To make highly critical comments like that just a few weeks ahead of important elections seems a bit odd - some would say suspicious. Such statements could have been uttered next week - and the failure to await a less sensitive moment is bound to raise some questions as to what motivated the people concerned.Carolus_Rex said:
In answer to that last question "let's keep quiet about this and not make waves until after the local elections" doesn't have a great ring to it does it?justin124 said:These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?0 -
I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.El_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
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They were on the VoteUK forum.stodge said:
The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.AndyJS said:
The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
Was anyone expecting that ?0 -
Ooooooooh Jeeeeeerrrreeeeemmmy Coooooooooooorbyn!bigjohnowls said:
You suuuuuuuck at loooooooocal eleeeeeeections!
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.justin124 said:
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
Criticism of Corbyn's toleration of anti-Semitism have been made before now but have been ignored by Corbyn.
The only way to get him engaged with the issue appears to have been to make an issue of the matter during an election.
He only has himself to blame for them being raised now as he could have dealt with the issue quietly at any point over the last few years,
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Redbridge loses its three LibDems.stodge said:
The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.AndyJS said:
The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
Was anyone expecting that ?
As recently as 2010, Redbridge Council was Con 30, Lab 26, LD 7.
Now Lab 51 (+16), Con 12 (-13)0 -
They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...justin124 said:
I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.El_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
"Good riddance to a Blairite scab" is one of the nicer parting shots.....Scott_P said:0 -
Jacqui Smith's old seatDavidL said:
Not any more. Tories gain Redditch.AndyJS said:With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
Thanks for that . What I am angling for is the poll accuracy in relation to the real votes in. LondonEl_Sid said:
Just looking at NEV, it's a bit closer than the GE but would still put Tories as the biggest party, which is roughly what the national polls are telling us.SquareRoot said:How is the poll looking given what we already know???
Given that it's a local election in the early stages of a Parliament, you'd expect the Opposition to drop 3-4 points and the governing party to gain 6 points in the subsequent GE.
At this stage of the electoral cycle Labour really need to be doing better if they're to win in 2022.0 -
Yeah, that's politics - but if ever a clear statement was needed on an issue, this was it. Instead we get Corbyn supping with Jewdas and half-hearted apologies for the offence caused.david_herdson said:
Either way, the likelihood is that the issue won't go away.El_Sid said:
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
Important clarification:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/world/europe/opcw-skripal-attack.html#click=https://t.co/qiVTI8JX3K
RT has been having fun over “how could they possibly have been exposed to 100g?” 100mg much less problematic...0 -
Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.0
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You're welcomeFloater said:
a real lol moment - thanks SunilSunil_Prasannan said: 0 -
That would imply a swing to Labour from the Tories of 1.25% since last year's General Election - and of 5.5% when compared with the 2017 Local Elections.williamglenn said:0 -
If the May / Corbyn deadlock theory holds, then LE 2019 round will look and feel much more like a traditional mid term kicking for Con, as 2015 is being defended. Especially if LD get traction in the southern shire districts.0
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The issue is converting bin collections into national vote share. In 2017 they got 18% NEV in May for the locals and then back down to just 7.5% in June for the GE.DavidL said:Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.
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Southwark loses its last two Conservatives.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Redbridge loses its three LibDems.stodge said:
The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.AndyJS said:
The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
Was anyone expecting that ?
As recently as 2010, Redbridge Council was Con 30, Lab 26, LD 7.
Now Lab 51 (+16), Con 12 (-13)
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Justin - would you EVER tell the victim of racism to "move along, come back in three months"??El_Sid said:
They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...justin124 said:
I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.El_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0 -
Lib Dems up 2 councils, Labour and NOC down one each.MaxPB said:
The issue is converting bin collections into national vote share. In 2017 they got 18% NEV in May for the locals and then back down to just 7.5% in June for the GE.DavidL said:Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.
0 -
Tower Hamlets:
• John Biggs (Lab) 37,619 (48.43%, +15.61%)
• Rabina Khan (PATH) 13,113 (16.88%)
• Ohid Ahmed (Aspire) 11,109 (14.30%)
PATH and Aspire are both off-shoots of Latfur Rahman's bunch - clearly the split the vote0 -
Con: 35% (+6)
Lab: 35% (+4)
LDem: 16% (+3)
Oth [incl. UKIP]: 14% (-13)
Chgs. w/ 20140 -
Corbyn getting more votes but doing worse than Ed.bigjohnowls said:Con: 35% (+6)
Lab: 35% (+4)
LDem: 16% (+3)
Oth [incl. UKIP]: 14% (-13)
Chgs. w/ 20140 -
No I would never do that - but this is not a new issue which has suddenly burst on to the political scene. There will be suspicions from some - and I say that as a non-Corbynite myself - that it was an issue seized upon at that particular time with a view to denying Corbyn a greater triumph in these elections.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Justin - would you EVER tell the victim of racism to "move along, come back in three months"??El_Sid said:
They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...justin124 said:
I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.El_Sid said:
The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."justin124 said:1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....
Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/
The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.0
