politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this mor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this morning
Over the past few weeks there have been several posts here suggesting that the best bet of the local elections was on the key LAB target in London – Barnet. TSE started it all on March 25th when the Tories were 5/1 with Ladbrokes and he suggested that that we should bet that LAB wouldn’t do it.
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I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.0
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The Conservative leader of Barnet Council leader said voters were more concerned about "local issues" than with accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour.
Richard Cornelius told the Press Association: "They are all basic issues. It's things like potholes, the collection of their rubbish bins and keeping the council tax low.
"Of course there is a concern about anti-Semitism in the Jewish areas, and of course there is a wider concern about it more generally.
"People are horrified, and Labour have to address that."
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Oii - where did my post go - rigged I tell you !! :-)0
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Labour in a bubble. Is this enough to burst it? Probably not.0
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LDs take the third seat in Mortlake and Barnes Common from the Tories by one vote:
https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=93&RPID=504875057
Bill Newton Dunn gets in by 6 votes over the Tories in South Richmond:
https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=95&RPID=5048750570 -
ConHome take:
The Party can make progress in a new natural heartland – the mass of midlands, Yorkshire and northern marginals that plumped for Brexit… On this site, James Frayne has constantly emphasised the centrality of these voters to the Conservatives’ future – and is absolutely right.
…While also holding Labour at bay in London. Theresa May, or whoever succeeds her, won’t have the advantage of good local councils as a centrepiece in (we hope) 2022. But a lesson of these elections is that Corbyn and Labour are vulnerable to the charge of extremism. That be built on.
A big lesson of these elections is: keep the faith on Brexit – and the discontent with the status quo that it stands for. The Prime Minister will do otherwise if she uses the space these results are giving her to have another push at the customs partnership
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/these-local-brexit-elections.html0 -
Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.0
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Tories hold the last seat in High Barnet by one vote over Labour.
https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/9923123080376647680 -
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The two gains in Chipping Barnet probably reflect the disappearance of the Coleman Effect.TheScreamingEagles said:The Conservative leader of Barnet Council leader said voters were more concerned about "local issues" than with accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour.
Richard Cornelius told the Press Association: "They are all basic issues. It's things like potholes, the collection of their rubbish bins and keeping the council tax low.
"Of course there is a concern about anti-Semitism in the Jewish areas, and of course there is a wider concern about it more generally.
"People are horrified, and Labour have to address that."
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The conundrum for Labour is Corbyn is immensely popular - unassailable even - with the Momentum/membership arm of the party, but he isn't capable/isn't interested in winning over voters who live outside of his narrow world view.
He isn't popular in the valleys and neither are Momentum. People here will still vote Labour but even the local activists think his stint as leader is time-wasted.
Aside from the odd win in the Shires I just don't see it's possible that the Corbyn raison d'etre will ever win over enough middle-ground voters.
Blair won 1800 seats in 1995. Corbyn has won 40.
Facts don't lie.0 -
These results are dire for Labour, and moderately good for the Tories. The Lib Dems did quite well within their usual hot-spots, and the Kippers are almost dead.rottenborough said:Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.
I don't want to help Labour, but surely even they can see that a leader who hates Britain is not a vote winner.0 -
The System Doesn't Require Them To - If They Don't Like The Parties neW Ones Can Arise. Yes it's not easy, but not being easy doesn't mean people are denied a votenot_on_fire said:
A system that requires voters to “suck it up” is not fit for purpose.kle4 said:
And none of that has anything to do with disenfranchisement, which was the point. You're not being starved if you're offered 3 meals you don't like, and it might be hard and unrewarding but you can try making a meal yourself. Or more likely, suck it up and eat it.Jonathan said:
Forming a new party? You might as well give up on politics altogether under FPTP. Labour needs centrists to win. Always has, always will. Corbyn and co need to wake up to that.kle4 said:
They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that.Jonathan said:
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.kle4 said:
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.TheJezziah said:
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.kle4 said:
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it ction result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
I happen to think there are better electoral systems, but that isn't what was being complained about, it was stated then when one wing if a party was in the ascendency people were disenfranchised. That is utter tosh.0 -
Faisal: country in "silos" of around 40% for each main party. Peak May and Peak Corbyn have been passed at once.0
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Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.
As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.0 -
Sounds like they are too busy hurling abuse to worry how Britain sees Corbyn.glw said:
These results are dire for Labour, and moderately good for the Tories. The Lib Dems did quite well within their usual hot-spots, and the Kippers are almost dead.rottenborough said:Dear oh dear. Labour. To be honest I think these results look like a disaster, mid-term, especially given their wild enthusiasms and all the talk about Red London.
I don't want to help Labour, but surely even they can see that a leader who hates Britain is not a vote winner.0 -
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/992190522260361217
Does this mean tories finally have a Cllr in Manchester (city) again?0 -
The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.0
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oh no it's in bury, never mind.nunuone said:https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/992190522260361217
Does this mean tories finally have a Cllr in Manchester (city) again?0 -
There you go, mentioning Blair. You know he's not really Labour.Fenster said:The conundrum for Labour is Corbyn is immensely popular - unassailable even - with the Momentum/membership arm of the party, but he isn't capable/isn't interested in winning over voters who live outside of his narrow world view.
He isn't popular in the valleys and neither are Momentum. People here will still vote Labour but even the local activists think his stint as leader is time-wasted.
Aside from the odd win in the Shires I just don't see it's possible that the Corbyn raison d'etre will ever win over enough middle-ground voters.
Blair won 1800 seats in 1995. Corbyn has won 40.
Facts don't lie.0 -
Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?0
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If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.Cyclefree said:
Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.HYUFD said:Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.
As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.0 -
Epic fail.
https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/992310498136752130
He is not familiar with that account's views.0 -
Didn't Childs Hill come in at 8am, not 6am?
Also the results for the Tories (in order of declaration) were
Totteridge, Hendon, Garden Suburb,
Edgware, Hale (1 gain), West Hendon (3 gains),
Mill Hill, Oakleigh, Finchley Church End,
Golders Green, Brunswick Park (2/3 with 1 gain), East Barnet (1/3, 1 gain),
Childs Hill (2/3, hold), High Barnet.
So Brunswick Park, not Childs Hill, was the result that go them to 32, but realistically Labour's hopes were dim after they not only failed to win Hale but also lost their councillor, and then destroyed when they lost West Hendon.0 -
It's served them well in certain parts of London but London isn't the country.rottenborough said:Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?
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Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.0
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Soubry is enjoying herself this morning, at Owen Jones expense:
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/9923037386928824330 -
If tim is a Tory troll he certainly did a very good job of hiding it on here!!dr_spyn said:Epic fail.
https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/992310498136752130
He is not familiar with that account's views.0 -
I think Labour may find its sub-35 % without a significant effort.rottenborough said:Faisal: country in "silos" of around 40% for each main party. Peak May and Peak Corbyn have been passed at once.
and moon-on-a-stick promises.0 -
The Tories will lose more seats in London, but gain elsewhere.DavidL said:The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.
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Has been Nimbyism too in many parts of the Home Countiesrottenborough said:Being the only Remain party seems to have worked out reasonably well for LibDems. Or has it all been potholes and rubbish collections?
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The Tories came very close to gaining overall control in Dudley (which they run) and Walsall (not sure)... if they had flipped the picture would have been Lab council losses.0
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They don't hold many more seats in London (Kingston being the exception)Sean_F said:
The Tories will lose more seats in London, but gain elsewhere.DavidL said:The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.
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See endless Matthew Goodwin papers, tweets etc etc.MaxPB said:
If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.Cyclefree said:
Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.HYUFD said:Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.
As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ0 -
Harrow is somewhere we did better under Cameron, I don't think May has the same respect among the Indian community. Though I don't think Corbyn is particularly liked.GarethoftheVale2 said:Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.
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Owen Jones is the new Eddie Izzard; motivated, enthusiastic and invariably wrong.rottenborough said:Soubry is enjoying herself this morning, at Owen Jones expense:
ttps://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/992303738692882433
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deleted. snap.0
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That's nice.....remind me, who was in power in 2009?
Windrush victim finally home after being kept out of UK for nine years
Despite living in London since 1960, Gretel Gocan was not allowed back after she left the country to attend a funeral in her native Jamaica in 2009
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/windrush-victim-finally-home-after-124774170 -
Thanks for the Barnet tip - only £30 up but that's a win on what was billed to be a bad night!0
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Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.
Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.0 -
He is saying Labour messed up by letting the expectations be such that our best results in those places since 1986 is seen as a bad result.rottenborough said:
Not sure I follow. Who has misjudged the politics?CarlottaVance said:0 -
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/992318651499012098
400-odd is quite high for first time effort.0 -
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Not sure anyone was but Brown was in office.CarlottaVance said:That's nice.....remind me, who was in power in 2009?
Windrush victim finally home after being kept out of UK for nine years
Despite living in London since 1960, Gretel Gocan was not allowed back after she left the country to attend a funeral in her native Jamaica in 2009
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/windrush-victim-finally-home-after-124774170 -
Morning all - I'm just heading off to my count. Laters...0
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Remember the Croydon Survation poll putting Lab on 50% to Con 37%? According to JohnLoony the actual result was Lab 44.6%, Con 40.0%.0
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Good Luck!SandyRentool said:Morning all - I'm just heading off to my count. Laters...
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This is a pretty clear steer for Theresa May from John Curtice regarding the "customs arrangement" embroglio.0
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Absolutely fantastic night for Theresa. She's now politically immovable. If Boris, Rees-Mogg or whoever attempts to make a challenge now, Theresa can just say: if you were leading the governing party, do you think the voters would reward you with a local-election result as amazing as this? The answer is, of course, a resounding 'no'.0
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Bless em.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
They've already told them the message: "Why don't you f*** off and join the Tories?"CarlottaVance said:Over to Mr Corbyn:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/9923215851671920650 -
Yup, and little overall movement on council control. Something for everyone, Labour clearly coming away with less than they had hyped, Tories more than they had briefed for, so 'mixed' seems a fair summary, albeit Tories more reason to be satisfied with a mixed night, particularly given how bad it could have been.DavidL said:The Tories fall to a net loss (which will surely increase during the day) and Labour look set to overcome the Lib Dems as the biggest net winner of seats. But the numbers are tiny. For all practical purposes it is as you were.
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You'll have to move onto your toenails.TheScreamingEagles said:I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.
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I'd say they are at risk of losing it.GarethoftheVale2 said:Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.
Those 3 red wards on the south-eastern edge of the borough look a bit vulnerable in the light of recent results.
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/10/0 -
Whatever complacencies the Tories may have had or still have, I don't think mocking a polemicist like Owen Jones has much at all to do with it - he's high profile, and hypes Labour's performance massively, and it didn't match the hype.. And the idea when people attack one of your side that means the attackers must be shaken is one of the laziest of partisan defences out there. It doesn't have to be so complicated - they might just have fun mocking Owen Jones.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/992300425775792135
I'm also fairly sure that it will be easy to find examples, from all sides, of where a party claimed the results in local elections showed how the country was turning against their opponent, even where their opponent had an overall increase. Because people spin anything and everything after local elections.0 -
I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".Slackbladder said:
Bless em.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
Or use his winnings to have someone else buff the nails for him.Theuniondivvie said:
You'll have to move onto your toenails.TheScreamingEagles said:I seem to be buffing my nails a lot this past week.
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Without wishing to pry, what sort of ballpark of a lifetime are we talking? If you're 30 that's not quite as much of a cutting remark about their total ineptitude as if you are 90.JonCisBack said:Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. .
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The big picture seems to be:
- Little change overall
- Labour made gains in heartland metropolitan seats, but even there not as many as expected
- Very worrying results for Labour in the Midlands
- The Tories seem to have picked up most of the low-hanging UKIP fruit, and otherwise are stable
- I think it's likely that Brandon Lewis and Conservative head office team are improving the effectiveness of Tory campaigning and targeting
- Good results for the LibDems in a few areas especially Richmond, but overall I'm surprised they haven't done better
So a mixed bag overall, which on balance is pretty good for Theresa May.0 -
Has Cable been around at all?0
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they also have sizeable Jewish populations......AndyJS said:
I'd say they are at risk of losing it.GarethoftheVale2 said:Looking at the Barnet and Hillingdon results, I;m wondering if Lab could be at risk of losing Harrow, which starts counting shortly. They only have a majority of 1 and there are a number of split wards.
Those 3 red wards on the south-eastern edge of the borough look a bit vulnerable in the light of recent results.
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/10/0 -
A luxury gulag awaits the non believers.rottenborough said:
I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".Slackbladder said:
Bless em.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
slow hand clap.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
The best way to satisfy Leave voters’ aspirations for a strong economy and a country that’s respected in the world is to exit from Brexit.geoffw said:This is a pretty clear steer for Theresa May from John Curtice regarding the "customs arrangement" embroglio.
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Another Richard I was getting a bit stroppy in the last thread - sorry.
Richard Tyndall, last thread - thanks for that post.
Just to clarify my comment on Equity Release, unlike the bad old days where you gave up part of your property these days they are what are called 'Lifetime mortgages' and you retain 100% ownership. They are just mortgages. They have specific terms so for instance you can (up to a point of course) not even pay the interest and let it roll up.
But at the end of the day they are just mortgage loans.
So Another Richard, according to your logic you would ban these as well and deprive older people from releasing capital from their homes. After all it is an interest only loan repayable on death (unless you repay earlier) and you don't even have to pay the interest as you go along so worse than what you object to.
These are much better than the old days when in effect you sold part of your house.0 -
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My only objection to these is the hype - Just give me the damn interest only loan.kjh said:Another Richard I was getting a bit stroppy in the last thread - sorry.
Richard Tyndall, last thread - thanks for that post.
Just to clarify my comment on Equity Release, unlike the bad old days where you gave up part of your property these days they are what are called 'Lifetime mortgages' and you retain 100% ownership. They are just mortgages. They have specific terms so for instance you can (up to a point of course) not even pay the interest and let it roll up.
But at the end of the day they are just mortgage loans.
So Another Richard, according to your logic you would ban these as well and deprive older people from releasing capital from their homes. After all it is an interest only loan repayable on death (unless you repay earlier) and you don't even have to pay the interest as you go along so worse than what you object to.
These are much better than the old days when in effect you sold part of your house.0 -
The economy is not great???????JonCisBack said:Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.
Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.
We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.0 -
I could never get properly involved in politics. There's too much bitterness, people refusing to accept when they've done badly, etc.0
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Bubblerottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
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That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.williamglenn said:0 -
Right. My only reservation is the lack of balance as evidenced in the deficits (current a/c and budget) and in the housing market.currystar said:
The economy is not great???????JonCisBack said:Poor for Labour - the current government is the worst Tory government in my lifetime. Divided and ineffective, unpleasant in patches, ineffective across the board and weak and directionless. May is hapless, the economy is not great (although not dire) - bumping along the bottom at best and there is no strategy or vision, no clear idea of "why" they are in power.
Yet Labour still look less preferable to many swing voters and Corbyn is unassailable. Can only see a Tory win next GE.
We have record employment, record low unemployment, low interest rates, increasing wages. If you want a job you can have one.. The delusion on this site regarding the economy is off the scale.
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Good morning and greetings, been lurking for a while but dropping in today. Norwich will be a sea of red later but locally Yarmouth will be the interesting one.
Labour have, I think, lost permanent support amongst the Jewish community looking nationwide, the interview with the defeated Jewish Labour chap in Barnet was visceral and damning. They also need to start looking seriously at working class towns in the Midlands and North with trepidation see 2010 to 2015 Scotland, but I think can look to make gains in non posh areas of Essex, Kent and the SW. Weird night.0 -
Redbridge now Lab 51 Con 12. (was Lab 35, Con 25, LD 3)
Cons lose half their seats, LDs gone.0 -
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It is the thoughtless tribalism and the slavish devotion to the Party Line that baffles me. Original thoughts and constructive dialogue seem to be banned from the faithful.AndyJS said:I could never get properly involved in politics. There's too much bitterness, people refusing to accept when they've done badly, etc.
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Mr. Paris, one intriguing aspect of F1 is that things constantly change. Temperature affects tyres, wind affects different cars more or less, drivers have good and bad days, the cars are updated all season long.
Politics is a little similar. Things will have changed by the time of the next election. Not least because of the EU. How things will shift is unclear, but the changes could be dramatic and have equally significant electoral implications.0 -
The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.TheJezziah said:
That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.williamglenn said:0 -
It's called Middlesbrough.....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
A luxury gulag awaits the non believers.rottenborough said:
I'm looking forward to my "luxury communism".Slackbladder said:
Bless em.rottenborough said:Novara Media editor:
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/9923004257757921350 -
Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.0
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Anyhoo.
LIVERPOOL F.C.
I think I might need to sell the souls of family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket for the final, but I think I’ll do it.
Got to hand it the Ukrainians, the equivalent of their Premier Inns in Kyiv which are normally £50 a night are charging £3,000 per night on final night.0 -
Doesn't that depend on what identity white people feel they have? I am white, I am not sure I have the same sense of my identity as white, pro-Brexit Tories have of theirs.MaxPB said:
If white people start voting according to identity lines (as they did in the US in 2016) Labour will find themselves out of power for a long time.Cyclefree said:
Labour bred the identity politics monster. And it’s now bitten them on the arse. Good.HYUFD said:Looks like Labour have gained a fair number of Tory council seats in London but 0 Tory councils.
As I thought might be the case the Jewish vote did for Labour in Barnet.
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Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, and Johnny Mercer are the only Tory MPs who can lead the Tories to a majority next time.Slackbladder said:Surely the thing to take more than anything else, is that the next election is unlikely to produce a majority for either party.
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Tories missed one seat in Redbridge by 10 votes, can't remember which ward it was.Sunil_Prasannan said:Redbridge now Lab 51 Con 12. (was Lab 35, Con 25, LD 3)
Cons lose half their seats, LDs gone.0 -
Jezza will also be 73? at the next election, and have been leader for 7 years. A lot can happen between now and then.Cyclefree said:
The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.TheJezziah said:
That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.williamglenn said:0 -
I'm not taking anything for granted the Tories winning the next election is certainly a possibility, I really couldn't see a landslide (outside of some extreme events) but a decent majority if things work out in their favour is plausible. A repeat could happen as well leaving the Tories hanging on but it doesn't seem delusional to feel optimistic about Labour making gains from where we are in the next election, from not just the Tories but the SNP as well.Cyclefree said:
The last two may very well hurt the Tories at the next GE. And I don't underestimate Corbyn's campaigning ability. But it didn't help Labour all that much this time round so possibly you risk being over-optimistic in assuming that the next election will be a rerun of 2017 as far as Corbyn is concerned.TheJezziah said:
That was my take, as a Labour supporter I'd want progress on that over the next couple of years but given Corbyn's campaigning ability, potential Brexit compromises and governing fatigue every reason to feel optimistic about a future election as a Labour supporter.williamglenn said:0 -
The only thing I think you can get from the locals is an idea of the state of the opposition. Practically every single one in my admittedly short experience has seen a kicking to the party in power.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Paris, one intriguing aspect of F1 is that things constantly change. Temperature affects tyres, wind affects different cars more or less, drivers have good and bad days, the cars are updated all season long.
Politics is a little similar. Things will have changed by the time of the next election. Not least because of the EU. How things will shift is unclear, but the changes could be dramatic and have equally significant electoral implications.
Governments typically recover.0
