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edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd resigns

Amber Rudd has resigned

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Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,331
    One more vote in the HoC against the government's Brexit policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,731
    Nice tip TSE, as the actress said to the bishop.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,900
    Not before time. Either she lied, or was utterly ignorant of what was going on in her Department.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    williamglenn said:

    One more vote in the HoC against the government's Brexit policy.

    It just gets better
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,303
    Fsake
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    sorry to see her go BUT

    I did place my £50 on her going on friday pm with Shadsy... albeit not quite 33-1....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Next leader, Javid. Was 60 a few days ago, now 20 on BF.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,276
    May left very exposed. And on such a quiet week with no major divisive votes...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Roger said:

    williamglenn said:

    One more vote in the HoC against the government's Brexit policy.

    It just gets better
    Unless May puts a definite Remain vote in as Home Sec.

    Greening? :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    RochdalePioneers said:

    May left very exposed. And on such a quiet week with no major divisive votes...

    Local elections are on Thursday, if the Tories do a better than expected that will quickly shore her up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    I wrote earlier that Rudd would survive. Obviously what I meant to say was that she would not survive, and it is fake news and social media spin that I had indicated otherwise.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No surprise I have to say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    edited April 2018
    rottenborough said:

    Next leader, Javid. Was 60 a few days ago, now 20 on BF.

    Javid has a Yougov approval rating of -36%, not great but miles better than Hunt or Gove's approval rating of -63% and -67% respectively and slightly better than that for Mogg and Boris
    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Sajid_Javid
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,872
    williamglenn said:

    One more vote in the HoC against the government's Brexit policy.

    That depends who replaces her.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    HYUFD said:

    Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view

    But I doubt the public are happy about deporting legal ones. Even xenophobic Brexiteers
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2018
    checking my ladbrokes account, I now find not only have I backed Tracey Crouch as next Tory leader but also Messrs Davis, Stewart and Mercer too.... the latter 2 at some serious odds.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Oh, for a touch of Trumpian steel in our jelly-spined, so-called Conservative Government!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Who's most likely to replace her?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view

    But I doubt the public are happy about deporting legal ones. Even xenophobic Brexiteers
    I doubt even 10% of the public are aware of the news about deportation targets. This is a classic Westminster Bubble story - which isn't to say I don't think Rudd should have gone. She mislead Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view

    But I doubt the public are happy about deporting legal ones. Even xenophobic Brexiteers
    The target was for illegal immigrants
  • NorthernUprisingNorthernUprising Posts: 39
    blueblue said:

    Oh, for a touch of Trumpian steel in our jelly-spined, so-called Conservative Government!

    You want to put tariffs on Tories?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,517
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    May left very exposed. And on such a quiet week with no major divisive votes...

    Local elections are on Thursday, if the Tories do a better than expected that will quickly shore her up
    You were one of those telling us yesterday morning Rudd was safe.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    You'd have thought the one lesson TMay might have learned in politics is 'Never fire your home secretary under any circumstances, no matter how many mistakes she makes'.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Hip Hip Hooray. Now time for her disgraceful business career to be fully exposed too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Was this in fact a sacking rather than resignation in all but name?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    May left very exposed. And on such a quiet week with no major divisive votes...

    Local elections are on Thursday, if the Tories do a better than expected that will quickly shore her up
    You were one of those telling us yesterday morning Rudd was safe.
    In public opinion terms she was, neither Tory nor Labour voters blamed her for the Windrush affair, if she has gone it is purely on the impression of misleading Parliament, her approval ratings were actually still above most of her fellow Cabinet Ministers
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,303
    AndyJS said:

    Was this in fact a sacking rather than resignation in all but name?

    May's response to her letter should tell us that
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Who thought Amber would be out the Cabinet before Boris (I wouldn't trust him to drive me home) Johnson? :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,170
    Elliot said:

    Sounds like you are now moving the goalposts from your original "low skilled workers would be mainly locked out" claim.

    I'm talking more about the views of the general public. They are far more sceptical of immigration than you are. I would also imagine that retail workers, with their much greater exposure to the broader public, add to a feel of "there are a lot of immigrants here" more than other sectors.

    I would also add that most shops in the US have American accents serving you. Even in New York you regularly hear them. Certainly in Chicago or DC. That's not true in London.

    As another Leave voter, I've been fairly consistent throughout as what I want: that is I want us out of "political" Europe, but I want the closest possible relationship absent that.

    I believe that any bureaucracy associated with work permits will act as a tariff. Paperwork is like that: it may not be explicit, but there is a cost with filling in forms and the like. And so as any future relationship we have with the EU will include a degree of paperwork, it will increase the costs of coming here. That will predominantly affect low skill, low wage workers. Now, we can disagree about the amount it will affect flows (I suspect it will have a surprisingly large affect.)

    But if this did not have the desired affect, it's very easy to adjust it. We could start with a £50 fee to register a worker. And if that still led to excessive levels of immigration, you could change it: perhaps to £500 or £1,000.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,546
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Anazina said:

    This government is an absolute fucking shambles.

    Yes, but Labour are even worse! Corbyn finds it hard to even get a front bench together.
    It is a pretty remarkable set of options. The government has had a torrid time of it for months, barring one good month for them, but it is still relevant Corbyn's time as LOTO has been so dramatic mostly because of internal party ructions. What are people to do?

    It might be my imagination, but it feels like when the options are objectively pretty bad, for either side of the political spectrum at the same time, the political debate becomes that much nastier, since it has to come down to partisan emotion, since it is harder for Tories/Labour to defend/promote their sides on the basis of their actual qualities, so it becomes a slanging match about how awful the other lot are. To a higher degree than usual.
    Agreed - very perceptive.
    Well, I think that's a pretty good sign I should call it a night, I won't manage two perceptive thoughts in one session.

    Good night all.

    The initial take - the resignation of a Cabinet Minister, holding one of the Great Offices of State no less, cannot be interpreted as anything but a moment of intense weakness for the government. May is even more deeply exposed than a regular PM would be, given she was the holder before Rudd. The story that prompted this was still in the news and causing trouble. And there is the constant difficulty of Brexit in the background. So this is a potentially significant moment for the government's image, direction and popularity.

    However, I am unclear on how outraged people are by the intentions of the policy in question. Certainly many of the most outraged are outraged by its intention. There does seem to be a conflation between the incompetence of the political leadership and operation of the policy, and the policy itself. But if the general public are more concerned about the incompetence, then the government can mitigate the damage it takes if it is lucky and/or effective.

    But it won't be easy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,062
    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    edited April 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    TM has been replacing "like with like" - So look for a female Remainer.

    Justine Greening might not be out of the question...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    AndyJS said:

    Was this in fact a sacking rather than resignation in all but name?

    No, May only reluctantly accepted the resignation.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    Javid would be the right appointment for a number of reasons. But will it happen? May has made some 'unusual' choices thus far. So it might be Boris for all we can tell!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/MurphyRichie/status/990701045323128837
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,331
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    Sounds like you are now moving the goalposts from your original "low skilled workers would be mainly locked out" claim.

    I'm talking more about the views of the general public. They are far more sceptical of immigration than you are. I would also imagine that retail workers, with their much greater exposure to the broader public, add to a feel of "there are a lot of immigrants here" more than other sectors.

    I would also add that most shops in the US have American accents serving you. Even in New York you regularly hear them. Certainly in Chicago or DC. That's not true in London.

    As another Leave voter, I've been fairly consistent throughout as what I want: that is I want us out of "political" Europe, but I want the closest possible relationship absent that.
    The 'closest possible relationship' implies that a 'political' Europe is in our interests, in which case the logic for being outside it collapses, particularly given that the UK is not an island but has a 300 mile land border with the EU27.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    AndyJS said:

    Was this in fact a sacking rather than resignation in all but name?

    I think it might be.

    Tomorrow's session in the Commons would have been brutal for the government.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Lord Falconer has resigned.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    Sounds like you are now moving the goalposts from your original "low skilled workers would be mainly locked out" claim.

    I'm talking more about the views of the general public. They are far more sceptical of immigration than you are. I would also imagine that retail workers, with their much greater exposure to the broader public, add to a feel of "there are a lot of immigrants here" more than other sectors.

    I would also add that most shops in the US have American accents serving you. Even in New York you regularly hear them. Certainly in Chicago or DC. That's not true in London.

    As another Leave voter, I've been fairly consistent throughout as what I want: that is I want us out of "political" Europe, but I want the closest possible relationship absent that.

    I believe that any bureaucracy associated with work permits will act as a tariff. Paperwork is like that: it may not be explicit, but there is a cost with filling in forms and the like. And so as any future relationship we have with the EU will include a degree of paperwork, it will increase the costs of coming here. That will predominantly affect low skill, low wage workers. Now, we can disagree about the amount it will affect flows (I suspect it will have a surprisingly large affect.)

    But if this did not have the desired affect, it's very easy to adjust it. We could start with a £50 fee to register a worker. And if that still led to excessive levels of immigration, you could change it: perhaps to £500 or £1,000.
    I wonder what has the larger wage cost discrepancy between British workers and Poles/Romanians: high skill workers or low skill ones.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anna Soubry welcomes her friemd Amber to the back benches

    Brexit in BINO beckons

    No it doesn't, there is no way we are leaving free movement in place, there is a chance we stay in the Customs Unions but the Single Market is definitely out
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nice tip TSE, as the actress said to the bishop.

    Did you see it?

    I've hardly mentioned it.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/MurphyRichie/status/990701045323128837

    His tweet on Friday was a joke. Rightly got flack for that.

    Javid should be the next Home Secretary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    I'm feeling even more confident about my 100/1 tip on Diane Abbott being Corbyn's successor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,546
    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    Yes, because when a Cabinet Minister resigns it is always solely because of their opposite number. Come on, even as a joke it lacks plausibility to label Abbott so.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    Javid would be the right appointment for a number of reasons. But will it happen? May has made some 'unusual' choices thus far. So it might be Boris for all we can tell!
    How about James Cleverly. He ran the fire brigade in London - a Home Office function - and has lots of police related experience from his time on the GLA. A black veteran representing an Essex seat?

    Maybe a big promotion but he actually has some knowledge of the issues that the HO deals with.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    May left very exposed. And on such a quiet week with no major divisive votes...

    Local elections are on Thursday, if the Tories do a better than expected that will quickly shore her up
    You were one of those telling us yesterday morning Rudd was safe.
    Not his fault. The algorithm is simply programmed that way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    Wasn't it under cross-examination by Yvette at that select committee meeting that it all started to unravel for Amber?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    Er, no, it was Yvette who exploded the bomb by asking, in committee, about the regional targets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,303
    edited April 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nice tip TSE, as the actress said to the bishop.

    Did you see it?

    I've hardly mentioned it.
    I was in a meeting when it was posted I think >.>

    Obviously I dropped a ton on her staying till Tuesday too

    And a reheated 11 day old news story finally does for her ffsake
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    I think Lidington is a strong bet, too. And Bradley.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Well hopefully Monticello, Siberian Pacific Resources and Kensington Resources to name but a few will mean a bit more to the average person in time.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    This has aged well:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/990639396117413888
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,331
    Hammond to the Home Office, Lord Osborne to the Treasury?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    Sajid Javid is now the 2/1 favourite to be Home Secretary.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Anazina said:

    Lord Falconer has resigned.

    Fake news. He went yesterday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,818
    edited April 2018
    For all Verstappen fans, this clip of his being overtaken by Maldonado back in 2015 is rather funny...
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4VcjE3F6oN8
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/MurphyRichie/status/990701045323128837

    Or, he may be proved right. His message was: be careful what you wish for...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    rottenborough said:

    This has aged well:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/990639396117413888

    In the last few weeks he’s another one who has been ridiculous. Even in his years at the Telegraph, I may not have agreed with all of what he said but I still thought he was worth a read.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    The days of political predictions meaning anything are long, long gone.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nice tip TSE, as the actress said to the bishop.

    Did you see it?

    I've hardly mentioned it.
    I was in a meeting when it was posted I think >.>

    Obviously I dropped a ton on her staying till Tuesday too

    And a reheated 11 day old news story finally does for her ffsake
    I feel your pain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    Javid would be the right appointment for a number of reasons. But will it happen? May has made some 'unusual' choices thus far. So it might be Boris for all we can tell!
    Mourdount?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Surely, a reshuffle means Rory finally makes Cabinet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,546
    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    That was Saturday. That memo may not have been new (apparently) but it rose in attention and changed the dynamics. Rudd's remaining in place as a shield made sense, but things were clearly going to get so hot the shield was going to evaporate, so it was time for it to be discarded. The fire may well now hit May, so watch out for the political equivalent of diving into a lake to put out the flames (eg a big u-turn, or deliberate raising of another huge issue to distract)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,362
    edited April 2018
    Note to No 10: can we get Kwasi Kwarteng in the cabinet, please?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    Yes, because when a Cabinet Minister resigns it is always solely because of their opposite number. Come on, even as a joke it lacks plausibility to label Abbott so.
    Whoever was leaking to the guardian , must be the main reason she resigned.

    Hard to understand what she stated to parliament , makes no sense to me.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    I'm feeling even more confident about my 100/1 tip on Diane Abbott being Corbyn's successor.
    I'm not even (completely) joking.

    She said in December 2016 that Labour would catch up with the Tories in the polls within 12 months. Commentators scoffed, but she turned out to be right, showing her great political predictive skills.

    Then her car-crash interview on police cuts got a lot of negative publicity in the short run, but it also made the public aware that Labour wanted to increase police numbers - which paid dividends later on in the campaign after the terrorist attacks. Brilliant Machiavellian strategic skills from Diane there.

    Now she's shown her skills at the day-to-day opposition work, by harrying the government into the most senior scandal-related resignation in years.

    People can mock her all they want, but Di always has the last laugh!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,737
    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,170
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    Sounds like you are now moving the goalposts from your original "low skilled workers would be mainly locked out" claim.

    I'm talking more about the views of the general public. They are far more sceptical of immigration than you are. I would also imagine that retail workers, with their much greater exposure to the broader public, add to a feel of "there are a lot of immigrants here" more than other sectors.

    I would also add that most shops in the US have American accents serving you. Even in New York you regularly hear them. Certainly in Chicago or DC. That's not true in London.

    As another Leave voter, I've been fairly consistent throughout as what I want: that is I want us out of "political" Europe, but I want the closest possible relationship absent that.

    I believe that any bureaucracy associated with work permits will act as a tariff. Paperwork is like that: it may not be explicit, but there is a cost with filling in forms and the like. And so as any future relationship we have with the EU will include a degree of paperwork, it will increase the costs of coming here. That will predominantly affect low skill, low wage workers. Now, we can disagree about the amount it will affect flows (I suspect it will have a surprisingly large affect.)

    But if this did not have the desired affect, it's very easy to adjust it. We could start with a £50 fee to register a worker. And if that still led to excessive levels of immigration, you could change it: perhaps to £500 or £1,000.
    I wonder what has the larger wage cost discrepancy between British workers and Poles/Romanians: high skill workers or low skill ones.
    Well, don't forget that a fixed fee for an employer is a much higher % of cost for a low skilled worker than a high skilled one.

    I'm the CFO of a mid sized tech company - c. 1,200 workers worldwide, with the biggest concentration being London and Estonia (both about 25% of the workforce each).

    The thing I'm most worried about is secondment visas: we regularly have people from Estonian teams come to the UK for six to nine months, and vice-versa. These aren't people looking to emigrate, but to learn from working on another team. We need to make sure there is an easy process for enabling this kind of thing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,693
    I’m surprised that Rudd’s gone.
    I think she’s a bungler, but she seemed one of the better talents in Cabinet. I didn’t detect any antipathy toward her from the public - pity if anything. It feels like May has hung her out to dry.

    Yet May must realise she is now very exposed. Apart from anything else, Rudd was a loyal counterweight to Johnson et al.

    Bring back Damian Green?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,546
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    Yes, because when a Cabinet Minister resigns it is always solely because of their opposite number. Come on, even as a joke it lacks plausibility to label Abbott so.
    Whoever was leaking to the guardian , must be the main reason she resigned.

    Hard to understand what she stated to parliament , makes no sense to me.
    That this memo was apparently not new, and yet she still made statements which contradicted it...mind boggling. She's not been good at damage control.

    But now good night for real.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    That was Saturday. That memo may not have been new (apparently) but it rose in attention and changed the dynamics. Rudd's remaining in place as a shield made sense, but things were clearly going to get so hot the shield was going to evaporate, so it was time for it to be discarded. The fire may well now hit May, so watch out for the political equivalent of diving into a lake to put out the flames (eg a big u-turn, or deliberate raising of another huge issue to distract)
    Might they send the police in , to find the leaker at the Home Office ?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    I think Lidington is a strong bet, too. And Bradley.
    The sickening sound of a barrel being scraped.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    Naughty...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,238
    williamglenn said:

    Hammond to the Home Office, Lord Osborne to the Treasury?

    I should think Lord Osborne to the Tower is more likely while May remains PM
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    Can't win them all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,362
    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Does this prove that May, despite appearances, is a genius to have survived six years at Home.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,737
    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
    I don't think that will cut it somehow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!

    I'm feeling even more confident about my 100/1 tip on Diane Abbott being Corbyn's successor.
    I'm not even (completely) joking.

    She said in December 2016 that Labour would catch up with the Tories in the polls within 12 months. Commentators scoffed, but she turned out to be right, showing her great political predictive skills.

    Then her car-crash interview on police cuts got a lot of negative publicity in the short run, but it also made the public aware that Labour wanted to increase police numbers - which paid dividends later on in the campaign after the terrorist attacks. Brilliant Machiavellian strategic skills from Diane there.

    Now she's shown her skills at the day-to-day opposition work, by harrying the government into the most senior scandal-related resignation in years.

    People can mock her all they want, but Di always has the last laugh!
    Yvette did the work.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    Richard Nabavi said it'd be all forgotten in a few days...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,362
    Benpointer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
    I don't think that will cut it somehow.
    When there is a vacancy, it would usually be the relevant minister of state who steps in.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    David Herdson said on Saturdays thread Amber Rudd was safe for now.

    Richard Nabavi said it'd be all forgotten in a few days...
    And Charlie Falconer said he was going nowhere.

    Ignore all these third-rate Mystic Megs, would be my advice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,546
    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who's most likely to replace her?

    Sajid Javid.

    I reckon Alastair made a good case for McVey and Lidington.

    I think Karen Bradley might be a contender.
    I think Lidington is a strong bet, too. And Bradley.
    The sickening sound of a barrel being scraped.
    You can find some great stuff at the bottom of a barrel.

    If you're lucky.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,596
    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
    Except Nokes is in trouble herself at the moment.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/94759/tories-probe-minister-caroline-nokes-over
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
    Chortle.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    rottenborough said:

    Surely, a reshuffle means Rory finally makes Cabinet?

    I agree . 66-1 on him
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,737
    edited April 2018
    Gardenwalker said:

    I’m surprised that Rudd’s gone.
    I think she’s a bungler, but she seemed one of the better talents in Cabinet. I didn’t detect any antipathy toward her from the public - pity if anything. It feels like May has hung her out to dry.

    Yet May must realise she is now very exposed. Apart from anything else, Rudd was a loyal counterweight to Johnson et al.

    Bring back Damian Green?

    I don't think May has hung her out to dry so much as stood back while she too the blame for May's policy decisions. But the hammer blow seems to have been self-inflicted by Rudd in the end.

    Will Rudd's loyalty to May survive intact?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    rottenborough said:

    Surely, a reshuffle means Rory finally makes Cabinet?

    I agree . 66-1 on him
    As?

    Home?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Who's going to make the HoC statement tomorrow? Will they ask Rudd's predecessor maybe?

    About Immigration? The immigration minister, I'd suspect. Caroline Nokes.
    Except Nokes is in trouble herself at the moment.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/94759/tories-probe-minister-caroline-nokes-over
    Saw this in the paper earlier. Sounds like there is little to investigate. Check with the council; job done....
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Danny565 said:

    Diane Abbott managing what Yvette Cooper never did in 4 years as Shadow Home Sec.

    Abbott is truly one of the political titans of her generation!


    It was Cooper's questioning during the Select Committee which led to all this.

    My guess at new Home Secretary would be Greg Clark. May has run out of allies so is left with promoting the safest pair of hands available. I don't think she'd want one of Osborne's allies like Javid in such a high position.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Am I right in saying this is going to be the 5th reshuffle since the election...

    One in June 2017 immediately after the election
    One after Priti Patel quit
    One a week later after Michael Fallon quit
    Then the botched one in January when people refused to move jobs.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    As we are making off-the-wall predictions, how about David Davis to the Home Office: he was Shadow HS until he resigned, and no, I can't see it either. Javid for the reasons TSE gave and his Telegraph article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/28/sajid-javids-windrush-fury-could-have-mum-dad/

    Javid also led on antisemitism and is preparing the Windrush anniversary celebrations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,669
    A top night for the EU?

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/990701876546035712
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    Hammond to the Home Office, Lord Osborne to the Treasury?

    Sharon or Ozzy ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    rottenborough said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    rottenborough said:

    Surely, a reshuffle means Rory finally makes Cabinet?

    I agree . 66-1 on him
    As?

    Home?
    Nah.. Tory leader... Along with crouch. Dd or mercer.. Heck of a portfolio that.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    You have to feel sorry for all those sent out to defend her on this mornings political shows.

    Jo Johnson is the most boring politician I have seen in a long while.

    When he was on Preston , they could not wait to get him off air.
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