politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job
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Esther to Justice, in order to bring back the cat-o-nine-tails, and then Priti into DWP with a view to closing the whole department down.GIN1138 said:
#BringBackPriti?Verulamius said:
My thoughts entirely.rottenborough said:Gove to Home Sec?
Should finish off any lingering prospects of being elected leader.
Would need a women to be promoted to cabinet to keep the balance....
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There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
Yeah, sacking Amber Rudd might give the Tories a last minute boost I suppose.rottenborough said:
I dunno, a lot more could happen by then, the way events are moving.AndyJS said:I wish the elections were taking place this week instead of next, it feels like an enormous waste of time having to wait until next Thursday for the electorate's verdict.
Reshuffle on Monday for starters.0 -
If it didn't work both ways we would end up with hundreds of surplus planes!FF43 said:
Yes, but it doesn't change anything.CarlottaVance said:
That works both ways, doesn't it?FF43 said:
And planes not flying is a real thing.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
I thought the decent Gross Capital Formation figures were entirely to do with property and not trade, which is the potential issue here, so perhaps the takeaway is that all these figures need drilling down into, as you point out. The big drop in automotive investment certainly was Brexit related. This period was an upcycle and investment went strongly into mainland Europe, but the not the UK.rcs1000 said:
I would treat all these numbers with an absolutely massive pinch of salt.Gardenwalker said:
Some "inward investment" is the foreign takeover of British firms; some is portfolio turnover by international investors; some is investment in real estate; and some is building new factories.
Now, we know that car industry investment dropped in 2017 - but while some of this is probably Brexit uncertainty related, there's also going to be some that is the result of Dieselgate, and some that we're probably past the peak of this auto cycle, at least from an investment perspective.
And some of the drop is simply that the ARM takeover happened in 2016, and there was nothing similar in 2017.
Gross Capital Formation (aka investment) has actually been very strong in the UK in 2017 - much better than I expected, so it's not clear that there has been any meaningful dropoff in the kind of inward investment we should most want to promote.
The problem, and this is entirely anecdotal, is the old "No IT manager was ever sacked for buying IBM" syndrome. Faced with a Brexit that has lots of uncertainties and lots of downsides and no apparent upsides, even if it's not necessarily a deal breaker to doing business, the perceived derisked option is to invest away from the UK. The easiest way to avoid uncertainties and downsides is not to be based here in the first place.0 -
Must be above zero surely??Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
Those laws of physics are damnably rigid.Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
I think she will resign rather than be sacked (if it happens)AndyJS said:
Yeah, sacking Amber Rudd might give the Tories a last minute boost I suppose.rottenborough said:
I dunno, a lot more could happen by then, the way events are moving.AndyJS said:I wish the elections were taking place this week instead of next, it feels like an enormous waste of time having to wait until next Thursday for the electorate's verdict.
Reshuffle on Monday for starters.0 -
It would be nice if the former BBC Economics Editor actually understood economics in the same way you do rather than just making superficial assessments driven by his own personal bias.rcs1000 said:
I would treat all these numbers with an absolutely massive pinch of salt.Gardenwalker said:
Some "inward investment" is the foreign takeover of British firms; some is portfolio turnover by international investors; some is investment in real estate; and some is building new factories.
Now, we know that car industry investment dropped in 2017 - but while some of this is probably Brexit uncertainty related, there's also going to be some that is the result of Dieselgate, and some that we're probably past the peak of this auto cycle, at least from an investment perspective.
And some of the drop is simply that the ARM takeover happened in 2016, and there was nothing similar in 2017.
Gross Capital Formation (aka investment) has actually been very strong in the UK in 2017 - much better than I expected, so it's not clear that there has been any meaningful dropoff in the kind of inward investment we should most want to promote.0 -
Cant see the human shield going as we all know who was really responsibleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I think she will rrsign rather than be sacked (if it happens)AndyJS said:
Yeah, sacking Amber Rudd might give the Tories a last minute boost I suppose.rottenborough said:
I dunno, a lot more could happen by then, the way events are moving.AndyJS said:I wish the elections were taking place this week instead of next, it feels like an enormous waste of time having to wait until next Thursday for the electorate's verdict.
Reshuffle on Monday for starters.0 -
On Windrush I think there is a danger of Labour overplaying their hand.
I think despite the stories we have seen. Being tough on immigration is still a vote winner and being soft on it a loser0 -
Agreed. Someone needs to blink. I don't expect it to be the EU in this case.Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
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NEW THREAD
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You never expect it to be the EUFF43 said:
Agreed. Someone needs to blink. I don't expect it to be the EU in this case.Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on
Nevertheless - planes will be flying
Unless you put us on a par with Indonesian safety standards?0 -
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nope - not reallybigjohnowls said:
Must be above zero surely??Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0 -
Amazing. Where has the pen been since 1989?williamglenn said:0 -
Maybe so, but a very visible statement that lack of an open skies agreement might affect the booking, followed up in Ryanair's case with an offer of £20 premium to insure against this possibility will create a media/online storm achieving the same effect.Floater said:
There is ZERO chance planes will not be able to flyFF43 said:
I think empty supermarket shelves will focus minds on that one. And planes not flying is a real thing. We have all said it so ridiculous it couldn't possibly happen, but the default is that it will happen unless there is agreement. Someone will have to blink and I wouldn't assume the EU will take the Irish border backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK government will either have to sign the Withdrawal Agreement as is (does this need ratifying in HoC?), in which case the government may fall, or it will have to agree an alternative UK wide solution with the EU. There isn't currently a fudge here.David_Evershed said:
Since he PM has already said we will not join a customs union, either the EU accepts the technology solution for the Irish border or the UK adopts WTO rules with no UK/EU agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In an impossible position TM can only count down the clock to the ultimate deadlock in the Autumn that will see the HOC defeat the hard Brexit leaving her to go to Brussels and accept a CU.FF43 said:
According to the linked BBC article, Theresa May genuinely thinks the unicorns just need to be set free and the UK will get all the benefits of EU arrangements with none of the obligations. It's not tactics on her part and stalling for time (which would be understandable).Stark_Dawning said:
I'm beginning to think Theresa is a very clever arch-Remainer. She appointed Liam on purpose, knowing he'd mess it up. So without any hint of trade deals, the Brexit Ultras are neutered, having to either suck up the EU Customs Union and vassal statehood or endorse economic collapse. They're screwed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We’re leaving the customs union.TOPPING said:
Could be a blinder by the Cons. In all the Windrush furore no one really noticed Rudd's customs union comments.Danny565 said:Brexit: Customs union plan brewing in Whitehall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282
But we’ll rejoin a customs union.
Classic British fudge.
Liam Fox’s incompetence saves us all.
That is my logic. I think if this is the outcome a lot will be very angry but most will be so weary they will accept the position and move on0
This discussion has been closed.