politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Coli

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.

It is a bit more than cut and paste job, as this little article on the EU Korea trade deal explains:

https://uktradeforum.net/2018/02/21/rolling-over-eu-free-trade-deals-a-look-at-an-actual-text/

Maybe it is, he's had almost two years and a government and not a single deal has been agreed in principle. It might not be a simple job, but he's had enough time.

I am happy to agree that my colleague and near namesake is a waste of space.

On the positive side at least he is no longer in clinical practice.

He is indeed completely useless. My friend who was there has moved to another department and hasn't looked back. Still very Brexit focussed, but actually making some kind of difference.

The friend was the one who confirmed to me that the civil service have been pushing the customs union option to the government because they have no faith in Fox to roll over the current EU trade deals in time. His department hasn't even set a target of how many deals they want signed or set any kind of priority among the existing deals that should be rolled over first.

I voted to remain, but respect the vote. However if as you say (And obviously you're no remainer) it seems Fox's department isn't trusted completely by the Gov't it might be best to simply remain in the CU.

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

West minister also invite band H householders to make a voluntary donation equivalent to their council tax to their community fund

another_richard said:

Re betting on London borough elections.

There is sometimes a 'local variation' to national or regional results depending on how well the individual council is perceived to be doing - closing car parks or ending bin collections rarely being a vote winner for example.

Does anyone know how the London councils are perceive to be run ?

I've read a few times that Wandsworth is now held in far lower regard than it was in its 1990s glory days.

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Re betting on London borough elections.

There is sometimes a 'local variation' to national or regional results depending on how well the individual council is perceived to be doing - closing car parks or ending bin collections rarely being a vote winner for example.

Does anyone know how the London councils are perceive to be run ?

I've read a few times that Wandsworth is now held in far lower regard than it was in its 1990s glory days.

So far as I can tell, Wandsworth is still well-regarded. Putney and Battersea will probably vote more heavily for the Conservatives next week than they did last June.

The 1990's were glory days, because the Conservatives held the Council, while Labour were dominant almost everywhere else.

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

West minister also invite band H householders to make a voluntary donation equivalent to their council tax to their community fund

I would expect Westminster council to get a bit of a hammering following their part surrounding the Grenfell fire.

I gues we will find out in 8 days.

Grenfell was in K&C not Westminster.

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

nielh said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

It isn't a model that is going to necessarily work for you if you are poor, and live in central London. If labour can get out their vote, and the conservative vote is supressed due to Brexit or whatever, then it might cause an upset.

On the other hand, for most people emptying the bins is the only work that the Council do that affect our everyday lives.

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

TGOHF said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

West minister also invite band H householders to make a voluntary donation equivalent to their council tax to their community fund

I would expect Westminster council to get a bit of a hammering following their part surrounding the Grenfell fire.

I gues we will find out in 8 days.

Grenfell was in K&C not Westminster.

My mistake, but surely not enhancing Tory reputations in those parts.

It was a Tory that started the fire, designed the building and refused to buy mansions for the victims no doubt - on planet Foxy.

The equivalent of £70,000 per flat was spend on refurbishing the the block. Was the lack of money spent by the Council the ultimate cause or just poor quality work and corner cutting - £70k is no small sum.

None of which is going to save the Tory council in K&C.

another_richard said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

West minister also invite band H householders to make a voluntary donation equivalent to their council tax to their community fund

How many do ?

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

Sean_F said:

nielh said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

It isn't a model that is going to necessarily work for you if you are poor, and live in central London. If labour can get out their vote, and the conservative vote is supressed due to Brexit or whatever, then it might cause an upset.

On the other hand, for most people emptying the bins is the only work that the Council do that affect our everyday lives.

Inner London has become very segregated between rich and poor. That makes it very hard for Labour to win the three Conservative boroughs. They can pile up votes in North Westminster, North Kensington, Tooting, and Roehampton, without winning many more seats.

OTOH, Lambeth, Southwark, Islington, Hackney, Camden have loads of rich left wing voters to add to the poor left wing voters, so Labour can win massively.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

brendan16 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

Hampshire county actually runs the services that actually matter and cost lots like social care and children's services. Most districts do very little bar collecting rubbish and running leisure centres - it's easy to charge so little when you deliver so little.

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

It’s a pleasant retirement with a nice bit of local status for some people.

That’s the problem.

I have always assumed that the opportunities for corruption were unparalleled.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

It’s a pleasant retirement with a nice bit of local status for some people.

That’s the problem.

I have always assumed that the opportunities for corruption were unparalleled.

Not if you're a councillor.

Such corruption as exists will be among planning officers.

Pulpstar said:

Decided to do something a bit daring tonight, and TSB banking seems to be working fine for me.

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

It’s a pleasant retirement with a nice bit of local status for some people.

That’s the problem.

I have always assumed that the opportunities for corruption were unparalleled.

Not if you're a councillor.

Such corruption as exists will be among planning officers.

Pulpstar said:

marke09 said:

Mansfield Chad‏Verified account @ChadNews

Labour loses overall control of Ashfield District Council

Get in

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

It’s a pleasant retirement with a nice bit of local status for some people.

That’s the problem.

I have always assumed that the opportunities for corruption were unparalleled.

Not if you're a councillor.

Such corruption as exists will be among planning officers.

And you have to think they are going to be under close scrutiny for any unexplained jumps in income.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Pulpstar said:

Decided to do something a bit daring tonight, and TSB banking seems to be working fine for me.

It's just taken one week to trash the TSB brand... I bet when the full story emerges it will be down to senior management not wanting to hear IT concerns ahead of a major migration.

Probably and a 50 million or so fine heading their way with millions more in compensation.

If it was me I would be an ex TSB customer by now

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Pulpstar said:

Decided to do something a bit daring tonight, and TSB banking seems to be working fine for me.

It's just taken one week to trash the TSB brand... I bet when the full story emerges it will be down to senior management not wanting to hear IT concerns ahead of a major migration.

Probably and a 50 million or so fine heading their way with millions more in compensation.

If it was me I would be an ex TSB customer by now

I don't suppose the new TSB owners Banco Sabadell are very impressed. Then again maybe they put the pressure on to migrate when the systems were clearly not ready.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Pulpstar said:

Decided to do something a bit daring tonight, and TSB banking seems to be working fine for me.

It's just taken one week to trash the TSB brand... I bet when the full story emerges it will be down to senior management not wanting to hear IT concerns ahead of a major migration.

Probably and a 50 million or so fine heading their way with millions more in compensation.

If it was me I would be an ex TSB customer by now

I don't suppose the new TSB owners Banco Sabadell are very impressed. Then again maybe they put the pressure on to migrate when the systems were clearly not ready.

I am sure you are right but why risk your business without being certain of the outcome.

A TSB Ratner style trashing of your reputation

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

It's not the ends, it's the means to the end that are at fault here. The Windrush issue arose from the 'hostile environment' policy launched by May. Creating a 'hostile environment' means making life difficult for anyone who might be suspected of not having the right to live here. Tbh it smacks of the sort of policies more at home in the 3rd Reich than Britain!

AndyJS said:

How much porridge is Bill Cosby facing?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

It's not the ends, it's the means to the end that are at fault here. The Windrush issue arose from the 'hostile environment' policy launched by May. Creating a 'hostile environment' means making life difficult for anyone who might be suspected of not having the right to live here. Tbh it smacks of the sort of policies more at home in the 3rd Reich than Britain!

Ben - in the nicest way possible - it was not May who coined the hostile environment it was Alan Johnson and was supported by both parties through to now. And your last sentence is not worthy of you

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

It's not the ends, it's the means to the end that are at fault here. The Windrush issue arose from the 'hostile environment' policy launched by May. Creating a 'hostile environment' means making life difficult for anyone who might be suspected of not having the right to live here. Tbh it smacks of the sort of policies more at home in the 3rd Reich than Britain!

JonnyJimmy said:

Being a xenophobic Brexit supporter, a man fought to hit me violently (7,2,3,5)

Pulpstar said:

marke09 said:

Mansfield Chad‏Verified account @ChadNews

Labour loses overall control of Ashfield District Council

Get in

MaxPB said:

Councils are weird to me, they are little fiefdoms with very little oversight. However, they get little credit for anything good they do and all the blame when nothing works properly. I really couldn't imagine wanting to be a councillor, being an MP seems terrible but local government is so much worse.

Elliot said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

After all the full on attacks over illegal immigrant targets 53% support the targets, 39% dont

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

It's not the ends, it's the means to the end that are at fault here. The Windrush issue arose from the 'hostile environment' policy launched by May. Creating a 'hostile environment' means making life difficult for anyone who might be suspected of not having the right to live here. Tbh it smacks of the sort of policies more at home in the 3rd Reich than Britain!

Ben - in the nicest way possible - it was not May who coined the hostile environment it was Alan Johnson and was supported by both parties through to now. And your last sentence is not worthy of you

Sorry Big_G, Theresa introduced the Hostile Environment policy in 2012.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9291483/Theresa-May-interview-Were-going-to-give-illegal-migrants-a-really-hostile-reception.html

Now, that was aimed at illegal immigrants and we might all say they shouldn't be here, so they are fair game. But the problem is the policy has had unintended consequences in unfairly discriminating against people who have every right to live here.

In referring to the 3rd Reich, I merely make the point that the sort of hoops some of the Windrush generation have been put through to prove their right to live here would not have been out of place in that regime. "Ihre Papiere bitte..."

A poorly designed policy having unintended consequences means the policy should be better designed, not abandoned. My parents were some of the many immigrants that played by the rules. I don't think it's right that those that don't get to stay.

Elliot said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

So on illegal immigrant targets the media and labour lose the argument.

On Rudd resigning 41%/41% which is surprising despite every attempt to get Rudd to resign.

I still think she has been poor and Windrush is dreadful but not sure how much electoral damage it has done

Laboir voters don't like Amber Rudd and many Brexit supporting Tories aren't too keen either which explains her numbers. She made another ill timed intervention on the customs union today.

The Windrush cases were legal immigrants - why shouldn't the government set targets to tackle illegal immigration. It's not fair on those who followed the rules and came here legally to confuse the two. And yet again it exposes our poor immigration systems snd record keeping.

It's not the ends, it's the means to the end that are at fault here. The Windrush issue arose from the 'hostile environment' policy launched by May. Creating a 'hostile environment' means making life difficult for anyone who might be suspected of not having the right to live here. Tbh it smacks of the sort of policies more at home in the 3rd Reich than Britain!

Ben - in the nicest way possible - it was not May who coined the hostile environment it was Alan Johnson and was supported by both parties through to now. And your last sentence is not worthy of you

Sorry Big_G, Theresa introduced the Hostile Environment policy in 2012.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9291483/Theresa-May-interview-Were-going-to-give-illegal-migrants-a-really-hostile-reception.html

Now, that was aimed at illegal immigrants and we might all say they shouldn't be here, so they are fair game. But the problem is the policy has had unintended consequences in unfairly discriminating against people who have every right to live here.

In referring to the 3rd Reich, I merely make the point that the sort of hoops some of the Windrush generation have been put through to prove their right to live here would not have been out of place in that regime. "Ihre Papiere bitte..."

A poorly designed policy having unintended consequences means the policy should be better designed, not abandoned. My parents were some of the many immigrants that played by the rules. I don't think it's right that those that don't get to stay.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

nielh said:

The Wandsworth/Westminster model of very low council tax whilst emptying the bins efficiently

I'd say this is what 90% of the country wants to be perfectly honest. That and the roads to be kept in good nick.

East Hampshire District Council is also very, very good, and looking to eliminate council tax entirely.

Unfortunately, Hampshire County Council makes up the bulk of the bill, and those that run it are soaking wet and in the hands of the officials.

I set up my council tax DD today and told the lady on the phone that I thought all councils should switch to unitary. It's truly eye watering up here, the same band in the village up the road in Doncaster MBC (Tickhill) is 1903 rather than 2347.

It’s a pleasant retirement with a nice bit of local status for some people.

That’s the problem.

I have always assumed that the opportunities for corruption were unparalleled.

Not if you're a councillor.

Such corruption as exists will be among planning officers.

And you have to think they are going to be under close scrutiny for any unexplained jumps in income.

If I were corrupt, I'd want to be paid in gemstones, which leave no paper trail.

Uhuh. And what would yo do with them?

Place them in a safe depositry, and then gradually sell them over a period of years.

Good luck in not getting spotted flaunting the proceeds!

Correction - as they are proceeds of corruption, I hope you get caught!

The point is not to flaunt the proceeds. A gradual increase in your standard of living won't attract attention.

So, a new Lamborghini is out then?