politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margi
Comments
-
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/9895034626134425610 -
To be honest. I classed the whole thing as a distraction.RobD said:
Whoever signed off on that decision needs to be sacked.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
The BBC had a helicopter hovering overhead during the raid didn't they?FrancisUrquhart said:The former head of South Yorkshire Police has said never in his "wildest dreams" did he imagine that the BBC would cover the force's inquiry into Sir Cliff Richard, in the way it did.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43904968
SYP to distract from Rotherham
BBC to distract from Savile0 -
Not sure about thrown to the wolves, but this looks like Rudd thtrowing a dead cat on the table, to get the agenda moved off Windrush.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
"Oooh look, shiny Brexit controversy thingy!!"
0 -
Mother can't wait for the BBC to be held to account for what they've done to her beloved Sir Cliff!FrancisUrquhart said:The former head of South Yorkshire Police has said never in his "wildest dreams" did he imagine that the BBC would cover the force's inquiry into Sir Cliff Richard, in the way it did.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-439049680 -
How many would actually vote for it though? (I assume definitely refers to consider not vote)Morris_Dancer said:0 -
My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped Barnet NOC at 16/1 last month.0
-
Untill election day and 70%+ vote Lab and Con again...Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Mr. D, tweeted in reply that the high stat is unsurprising given the current state of affairs, but that a party coming into force wouldn't be a blank canvas anymore. Having concrete positions on taxation, spending, borrowing, and the EU would whittle away its support.
There's still a big space for a new party, but Labour MPs still campaigning for the Party of Corbyn suggests they'll never split, and the Conservatives are (Soubrey and a few others aside) unlikely to do so because they don't want to let the far left in.
Edited extra bit: if Labour did split, that could also open the door for the left of the Conservatives to do likewise, though.0 -
Leaving THE Customs Union, joining A Customs Union?TGOHF said:0 -
Slightly more Conservative voters (45%) would "consider" it than Labour voters (43%).Morris_Dancer said:0 -
"94% of British public do not vote for existing centre-ground party"Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Mr. Rentool, parties that have been around get tarnished by the grubby realities of governance. A new party is fresh and clean and lovely. The newness is the (small) counterbalance to the problems it faces trying to win under FPTP.0
-
But, for this "new" centrist party to get any attention, it would surely be relying on high-profile MPs from existing parties to defect to it and lead it. High-profile MPs who themselves would be "tarnished by the grubby realities of governance"...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, parties that have been around get tarnished by the grubby realities of governance. A new party is fresh and clean and lovely. The newness is the (small) counterbalance to the problems it faces trying to win under FPTP.
0 -
Yes, she's let the cat out of the bag. Clearly the plan is to 'leave' the Customs Union but then immediately instigate an identical arrangement. If pressed Theresa can then state we've left the Customs Union although there'll be no logical difference. Clever.RobD said:0 -
Pinhead dancing - why would we join another similar protectionist racket which restricts our trade ?SandyRentool said:
Leaving THE Customs Union, joining A Customs Union?TGOHF said:0 -
F1: a few notes ahead of the weekend. First off, I ran a couple of polls on Twitter (not huge reply numbers but still interesting) which suggests a narrow majority thought Ferrari would beat Mercedes, Red Bull a distant third. The other poll had Haas/McLaren/Renault closely tied for best of the rest, with Toro Rosso singularly unloved.
Also, the FIA has banned exhaust gas blowing for aerodynamic purposes with immediate effect which, contrary to the Ferrari International Assistance jest, many people believe will harm Ferrari more than anyone else.
My own view is that picking a winning team is very difficult. Azerbaijan's weird, being very tight but also having a massive straight. I think credible arguments can be put forward for any of the top three winning (one advantage that Red Bull enjoys is that they can be more strategically daring because right now neither driver appears to be in the title fight, whereas Mercedes and Ferrari can't risk losing a chunk of points).
In the midfield, as I've said before, I think Haas will be top. Their car was great around Australia and they've got the Ferrari engine would should be best for the straight.
(How much) will the FIA ruling compromise Ferrari? Impossible to say. The cars undergo constant development so it's a moving target. It may also compromise Renault, who apparently have been doing something similar.0 -
Mr. Dawning, well, the public were certainly fooled when that happened with the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty...0
-
Exactly. I'd definitely consider it, and at the first sign of Blair or Mandelson I'd be thinking "hell f*cking no!"RobD said:
How many would actually vote for it though? (I assume definitely refers to consider not vote)Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:RobD said:
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989503462613442561
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.0 -
The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB. Either the UK side will sign up to a transition agreement on those terms, which Mrs May and the DUP who are propping up her government have both said is completely unacceptable; or it convinces the EU to allow the arrangements to apply to all UK (CU+CAP+SM for goods); or there will be no transition and we will crash out of the EU in utter chaos - this really would be the no flights and empty supermarket shelves scenario.
The government appears to be completely paralysed on the issue. It's not clear whether it's playing for time in the hope that the players will eventually be shocked into compromise or whether it really is incapable of making a move. If it doesn't go for SM+CU now the same standoff will kick in during the transition period.0 -
I can foresee the following. We'll remain the Custom's Union (albeit under a new title) but they'll agree some clause that states that we can technically have our own trade deals but only with a case-by-case agreement of the EU. Which, of course, will never happen. So all the terrible disruption will be avoided, but Liam still gets to say he has a purpose. Should work like a charm.TGOHF said:
Pinhead dancing - why would we join another similar protectionist racket which restricts our trade ?SandyRentool said:
Leaving THE Customs Union, joining A Customs Union?TGOHF said:0 -
She didn't say that - she said that the government hasn't yet arrived at a "final position"SandyRentool said:
Very arrogant to say that "the government is yet to decide". It is for Parliament to decide.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Mr. Dawning, under those circumstances, I'd suggest we'd see the I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party being founded rather promptly.0
-
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
0 -
Am I the only one thinking that a flat in Greenwich at £50 000 is a bargain? just no smokersanother_richard said:
Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:RobD said:
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989503462613442561
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.0 -
And what would their platform be, now that leaving the EU has been shown to be a dead end? It would just be an English National Front.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dawning, under those circumstances, I'd suggest we'd see the I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party being founded rather promptly.
0 -
More likely a "temporary arrangement" with a guillotine clause. We agree a customs and trading rules arrangement with a six month notice of cancellation period. We will work on a final looser arrangement that will substitute for the temporary arrangement. We expect to move to the new arrangement in - pick a date.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, she's let the cat out of the bag. Clearly the plan is to 'leave' the Customs Union but then immediately instigate an identical arrangement. If pressed Theresa can then state we've left the Customs Union although there'll be no logical difference. Clever.RobD said:
(Actually we never will move to the new arrangement, the belief that we might keeps the show on the road until eventually everyone accepts the by then very stale stalemate).0 -
I'm sure she'll take the first £50k offer.Foxy said:
Am I the only one thonking that a flat in Greenwich at £50 000 is a bargain? just no smokersanother_richard said:
Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:RobD said:
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989503462613442561
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.
Or perhaps not.
As rental prices are £1,250+ per month in Greenwich that would give a 30% yield.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/Greenwich.html0 -
Mr. Glenn, leaving the customs union, taking back control, a 'real' departure from the EU, boo hiss to the treacherous political class.0
-
4% tops.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, leaving the customs union, taking back control, a 'real' departure from the EU, boo hiss to the treacherous political class.
0 -
Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?another_richard said:
Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:RobD said:
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989503462613442561
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.0 -
Erm, perhaps to stop the 25 mile lorry park of rotting food at Dover?TGOHF said:
Pinhead dancing - why would we join another similar protectionist racket which restricts our trade ?SandyRentool said:
Leaving THE Customs Union, joining A Customs Union?TGOHF said:0 -
10% like the BNP got at their peak.williamglenn said:
4% tops.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, leaving the customs union, taking back control, a 'real' departure from the EU, boo hiss to the treacherous political class.
0 -
Doubt it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dawning, under those circumstances, I'd suggest we'd see the I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party being founded rather promptly.
The moment of madness has passed.
Even if May cancelled Brexit, I can’t see a revival of UKIP. Tory Party meltdown sure, UKIP no.0 -
What's the problem? Those are the terms according to the rules. In the vast majority of cases, taxpayers gain because they get a share of uprated value. In this extremely unusual case, it works the other way. That seems entirely fair.another_richard said:Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.
Your obsession with trying to find fault with George Osborne - by any standards, one of the most successful Chancellors since the war, and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis - is quite extraordinary.0 -
Mr. Glenn, perhaps we'll find out.
Mr. Walker, no. I didn't say UKIP. I said a new party that was very Kipperish (I'm sure Farage/Banks would write a rulebook to make it less prone to endless infighting).
As for 'moment', don't forget that more than half those who bothered to vote wanted to leave. UKIP and the sceptic side generally had been gaining strength for years. This wasn't a moment, it was the culmination of decades of frustration with the EU and UK political class (for what it's worth, I still think Lisbon was critical to changing public opinion).
It may comfort you to consider it a moment of madness, but that's to misunderstand why people voted the way they did.0 -
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
0 -
The rules say you can pay back at any time, the amount being proportional to the current valuation.Charles said:Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?
0 -
You can buy the government out under Help to Buy.Charles said:
Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?another_richard said:
Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:RobD said:
The Tories aren’t at 40 points in the polls because of their housing policies....Stark_Dawning said:
How does Hodges know 'she is well aware of that'? Is he one of her confidants? Has he suddenly become psychic?TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989501750326583296Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. Does Amber realize she's doomed but intends to take Theresa with her, by throwing her to Rees-Mogg and the wolves?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989503462613442561
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.
0 -
Hilarious to see how quickly Remainers jumped on Amber Rudd's comments.
It's going to be quite fun seeing them eat their words, or more likely just trying to reverse ferret and argue that's what they had said all along, once the shape of the final A50 and HoT for future FTA is clear.0 -
I think you're on thin ice accusing other people of being biased about George Osborne.Richard_Nabavi said:
What's the problem? Those are the terms according to the rules. In the vast majority of cases, taxpayers gain because they get a share of uprated value. In this extremely unusual case, it works the other way. That seems entirely fair.another_richard said:Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.
Your obsession with trying to find fault with George Osborne - by any standards, one of the most successful Chancellors since the war, and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis - is quite extraordinary.
I am at least willing to acknowledge that he did some good things - increasing VAT and reforming pensions as examples.0 -
Source?Richard_Nabavi said:and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis
0 -
Hehe.Casino_Royale said:Hilarious to see how quickly Remainers jumped on Amber Rudd's comments.
It's going to be quite fun seeing them eat their words, or more likely just trying to reverse ferret and argue that's what they had said all along, once the shape of the final A50 and HoT for future FTA is clear.
Everyone knows we are leaving THE customs union.0 -
You forgot 'rescuing the UK economy from being in the worst state of any European country other than Greece to being one of the two best, whilst amazingly managing to keep unemployment very low'. I've no idea why you don't seem to think that is rather the key point about his tenure as Chancellor.another_richard said:I think you're on thin ice accusing other people of being biased about George Osborne.
I am at least willing to acknowledge that he did some good things - increasing VAT and reforming pensions as examples.0 -
That's very much my view. I expect the Tories to make gains outside London.SandyRentool said:
Why should the Tories expect losses when they are better placed in the polls versus Labour than in 2014 and the Kipper collapse will free up seats for all other parties?DavidL said:These still look like very good figures for Labour in London. As I have said before Labour really should outperform in these elections in the same way that the Tories did in 2017 when the elections were on their turf. As the country becomes ever more divided each should do better than overall in their target areas and these elections are mainly in Corbyn central.
I still think if the Tories keep Labour down to under 200 net gains they will have done very well. Given the UKIP position they may hope to keep their losses to about 100 but that may prove optimistic.0 -
Nabavi Network News.Danny565 said:
Source?Richard_Nabavi said:and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis
(Incorporating Big G TV).
0 -
It's odd. I think the same as yourself..Charles said:
Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?
Looking at help to buy in the round, it seems a massive bung to housebuilders.
Which may not be a bad thing, though due to the affordability/LTV situation it creates a situation where new-builds can sell for an artificially higher price than the rest of the market (Than they otherwise might be) since those who can plan 6 years ahead (When the Gov't scheme starts to bite with the whole RPI + 2.75% business on the loans) will pay the loan off early, and those who can't plan 6 years ahead start to subsidise the rest of the scheme with their expensive payments from yr 7 onward.
Even if you have enough deposit for a 25% put down, it is worth taking the Gov't cash if you're determined to buy a new build - though noting the above arguments a house of existing stock may well be better value for money.
All in all it's not a bad scheme (Since we need more homes), but it's particularly good if you're the CEO of a big housebuilder
I wonder how the outflows and inflows are doing against the original projections mind.0 -
Still more impartial and accurate than RT....Gardenwalker said:
Nabavi Network News.Danny565 said:
Source?Richard_Nabavi said:and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis
(Incorporating Big G TV).
0 -
Now sure HoL do?Gardenwalker said:Casino_Royale said:Hilarious to see how quickly Remainers jumped on Amber Rudd's comments.
It's going to be quite fun seeing them eat their words, or more likely just trying to reverse ferret and argue that's what they had said all along, once the shape of the final A50 and HoT for future FTA is clear.
Everyone knows we are leaving THE customs union.0 -
I believe the HoL motion refers to A customs union.GIN1138 said:
Now sure HoL do?Gardenwalker said:Casino_Royale said:Hilarious to see how quickly Remainers jumped on Amber Rudd's comments.
It's going to be quite fun seeing them eat their words, or more likely just trying to reverse ferret and argue that's what they had said all along, once the shape of the final A50 and HoT for future FTA is clear.
Everyone knows we are leaving THE customs union.0 -
FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
Why do we believe every single word and pronouncement that comes out of the EU as though it's being handed down by God to Moses on a Tablet Of Stone?0 -
THat's not a bad clause, and makes the scheme actually a little more taxpayer friendly (And individual unfriendly) than my original paragraph proposes.Richard_Nabavi said:
The rules say you can pay back at any time, the amount being proportional to the current valuation.Charles said:Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?
But who values the property if you have the readies ready to pay it all back at say 3 years in ?
& Who pays for the valuation... Can you pay your friendly local surveyor, or does the Gov't pay the surveyor.
Or is it just done on a general market basis ?
0 -
Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.0
-
Perhaps charities could spend the money on good causes ? Controversial ?FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), the vast majority are more comfortable following than leading. That said, some do take it to extremes (as we've seen recently with the far left and Corbyn).
Congrats to Ms. Davidson.0 -
You do, you then submit it to (effectively) the government who checks it's legit.Pulpstar said:
THat's not a bad clause, and makes the scheme actually a little more taxpayer friendly (And individual unfriendly) than my original paragraph proposes.Richard_Nabavi said:
The rules say you can pay back at any time, the amount being proportional to the current valuation.Charles said:Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?
But who values the property if you have the readies ready to pay it all back at say 3 years in ?
& Who pays for the valuation... Can you pay your friendly local surveyor, or does the Gov't pay the surveyor.
Or is it just done on a general market basis ?
Ordinarily such a valuation is easy - I believe a couple of hundred quid is the going rate.
Of course cladded flats are much more difficult because of the liquidity trap.0 -
That's excellent news for her and her partner! Though it makes the notion of her coming to Westminster in a by-election to succeed Theresa much less likely, I think.TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
0 -
Probably rules her out a leadership contest for the time being, although since she isn't an MP that's probably a non starter anyway.TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
0 -
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
0 -
Ruth is the one having a baby. May slow her down a touch for a while. Good luck to her.0
-
Although perhaps it is all just a cynical pitch for Andrea Leadsom's voteTheWhiteRabbit said:
Probably rules her out a leadership contest for the time being, although since she isn't an MP that's probably a non starter anyway.TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
0 -
Sounds great. We can apply the same approach to nearly everything else. We'll effectively be in the EU but in name only. Then people who have specific objections to particular things the EU does can make their arguments on a case by case basis. Perfect.Stark_Dawning said:
I can foresee the following. We'll remain the Custom's Union (albeit under a new title) but they'll agree some clause that states that we can technically have our own trade deals but only with a case-by-case agreement of the EU. Which, of course, will never happen. So all the terrible disruption will be avoided, but Liam still gets to say he has a purpose. Should work like a charm.TGOHF said:
Pinhead dancing - why would we join another similar protectionist racket which restricts our trade ?SandyRentool said:
Leaving THE Customs Union, joining A Customs Union?TGOHF said:0 -
TheWhiteRabbit said:
Although perhaps it is all just a cynical pitch for Andrea Leadsom's voteTheWhiteRabbit said:
Probably rules her out a leadership contest for the time being, although since she isn't an MP that's probably a non starter anyway.TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
Many congratulations to her.0 -
Can't you do it? You're far better qualified than Liam. Look, I'll even provide a reference if you need one.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.0 -
Anonymous donor? The dad could be a Nat!TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
0 -
Will be proven for definite if the sprog has a single eyebrow.SandyRentool said:
Anonymous donor? The dad could be a Nat!TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.
0 -
Mrs Osbourne.Danny565 said:
Source?Richard_Nabavi said:and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis
0 -
I don't think you need to listen to the EU, I think you can listen to some of our partners outside the EU who are worried about lack of roll over, such as Switzerland.GIN1138 said:FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
Why do we believe every single word and pronouncement that comes out of the EU as though it's being handed down by God to Moses on a Tablet Of Stone?0 -
Donald Trump swinging by on July 13th.0
-
That'd be Sharon, Chris.rcs1000 said:
Mrs Osbourne.Danny565 said:
Source?Richard_Nabavi said:and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis
0 -
Friday the 13th0
-
Pretty damning then, isn’t it?rcs1000 said:
I don't think you need to listen to the EU, I think you can listen to some of our partners outside the EU who are worried about lack of roll over, such as Switzerland.GIN1138 said:FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
Why do we believe every single word and pronouncement that comes out of the EU as though it's being handed down by God to Moses on a Tablet Of Stone?
All this heat and light over the customs union and we’re making a hash of our trade policy anyway.
What has Liam Fox got on May? Can’t she boot him for another Brexiter, someone who is not paralysed from the neck up?0 -
I would suggest Kwasi Kwarteng. A finance background (worked at Odey), extremely bright (Fulbright scholar), and a Leaver (but not a doctrinaire one).Stark_Dawning said:
Can't you do it? You're far better qualified than Liam. Look, I'll even provide a reference if you need one.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
He was at Trinity with me...0 -
awww, i'm out of the country, what a shame.TGOHF said:Donald Trump swinging by on July 13th.
0 -
Exactly two years after TMay became PM.TGOHF said:Donald Trump swinging by on July 13th.
0 -
If May cancelled Brexit, she would be quickly deposed and a hardcore Brexiteer would be leader. The same is true of a Brexit-lite. That is what the moderates fail to recognise. The only way they can succeed May is by not sabotaging Brexit.Gardenwalker said:
Doubt it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dawning, under those circumstances, I'd suggest we'd see the I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party being founded rather promptly.
The moment of madness has passed.
Even if May cancelled Brexit, I can’t see a revival of UKIP. Tory Party meltdown sure, UKIP no.0 -
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.0 -
I think that you are wrong about DExEU turnover, staff turnover there is extremely high, at 3% per month.rcs1000 said:FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
https://www.ft.com/content/20435922-9f18-306f-b12c-792e68691481
Google "How DEXEU is shedding staff faster than the rest of Whitehall" to dodge the paywall.0 -
Im still laughingRichard_Nabavi said:
What's the problem? Those are the terms according to the rules. In the vast majority of cases, taxpayers gain because they get a share of uprated value. In this extremely unusual case, it works the other way. That seems entirely fair.another_richard said:Speaking of which am I the only one deeply unimpressed with this:
' The government has agreed to virtually wipe out a help-to-buy loan on an apartment in a London block with cladding similar to that used at Grenfell Tower, it has emerged.
It will make the write-down on the grounds that the value of the flat in Greenwich has been reduced from £500,000 to £50,000 because the developer has no plans to remove the cladding.
The concession raises the prospect of multimillion-pound losses for the government scheme on any flat that goes into negative equity. This is because, unlike high street mortgages, help-to-buy loans can be redeemed on the sale value of the property rather than the value of the original loan.
Homes England, the agency responsible for the loan, wrote to Cecile Langevin last week to say it had agreed she could pay back her loan at the knock-down valuation.
This means Langevin has to pay back 20% of the new valuation of £50,000, which is £10,000, leaving the government with a £85,000 shortfall on its original loan. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/apr/25/help-to-buy-agency-writes-down-loan-on-flat-over-grenfell-style-cladding
Another triumph of the Osborne legacy.
Your obsession with trying to find fault with George Osborne - by any standards, one of the most successful Chancellors since the war, and generally regarded internationally as one of the best finance ministers since the financial crisis - is quite extraordinary.0 -
That's a very misleading number as a lot of staff are on temporary secondment from other departments.Foxy said:I think that you are wrong about DExEU turnover, staff turnover there is extremely high, at 3% per month.
https://www.ft.com/content/20435922-9f18-306f-b12c-792e68691481
Google "How DEXEU is shedding staff faster than the rest of Whitehall" to dodge the paywall.
The top team has been pretty solid in the last 12 months at DfExEU.0 -
-
I am in Russia for the World Cup, so will miss that bit of fun too.Slackbladder said:
awww, i'm out of the country, what a shame.TGOHF said:Donald Trump swinging by on July 13th.
0 -
Do you think that is steady state?Foxy said:
I think that you are wrong about DExEU turnover, staff turnover there is extremely high, at 3% per month.rcs1000 said:FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Perhaps it's a transition over 16 months, by which time all the oikophobes will have left.
0 -
What I find staggering is that he was given a junket rich job after the whole Adam Werrity affair.DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.0 -
Well so did Harold Shipman and he had a 'poor command of punctuation and spelling':DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2002/jul/22/health.shipman
And he murdered lots of people.0 -
Fixed that for you.rcs1000 said:
What I find staggering is that he was given aDavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.junket richjob after the whole Adam Werrity affair.0 -
Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).rcs1000 said:
What I find staggering is that he was given a junket rich job after the whole Adam Werrity affair.DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.0 -
Yes, DexEU has had to send out the pressgang to other departments to get bums on seats, though these conscripts start looking for a way to escape out ASAP.rcs1000 said:
That's a very misleading number as a lot of staff are on temporary secondment from other departments.Foxy said:I think that you are wrong about DExEU turnover, staff turnover there is extremely high, at 3% per month.
https://www.ft.com/content/20435922-9f18-306f-b12c-792e68691481
Google "How DEXEU is shedding staff faster than the rest of Whitehall" to dodge the paywall.
The top team has been pretty solid in the last 12 months at DfExEU.
The fact is that there is v high turnover in the dept, particularly at the coalface detail level.0 -
On the other hand he never complained about doing housecallsStark_Dawning said:
Well so did Harold Shipman and he had a 'poor command of punctuation and spelling':DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2002/jul/22/health.shipman
And he murdered lots of people.0 -
This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?RobD said:Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).
There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.
And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?0 -
As for Fox and the Trade department. There isn't a single bigger driver of pushing MPs towards the customs union. If we had a competent minister who had got 30-40 countries to put pen to paper on rolling over the existing trade deals the EU has with a view to enhancing them once we leave, there would be far fewer Tories on the fence wrt to the customs union or a customs union. His incompetence is one of the major causes of a possible tight vote on the Lords amendment.0
-
Perhaps Theresa fell for his smooth Scottish accent and smouldering looks. She won't have been the first. So did Natalie Imbruglia!rcs1000 said:
What I find staggering is that he was given a junket rich job after the whole Adam Werrity affair.DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.0 -
Programme about him at 9pm tonight. Interesting trailer on Breakfast time this morning.Stark_Dawning said:
Well so did Harold Shipman and he had a 'poor command of punctuation and spelling':DavidL said:
I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.rcs1000 said:
I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.FF43 said:
The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:TGOHF said:
Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.FF43 said:The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312
It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).
Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left
Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.
The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.
Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2002/jul/22/health.shipman
And he murdered lots of people.0 -
Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.rcs1000 said:
This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?RobD said:Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).
There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.
And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?0 -
Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:
“ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."0