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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margi

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Brokenshire speaking on his lung cancer.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290

    More expectation management:

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/989523794393030656

    A few days on twitter is like a lifetime.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU aren't investing any effort into amending the Irish border backstop in the withdrawal agreement, where Northern Ireland has a different trade regime from mainland GB.

    Indeed the EU is frightfully complacent on this border issue - who pays ? EU or ROI ? Also the EU has no plans on how it will make up the huge shortfall in budget contributions when we exit with no deal.
    The EU can live with that. On the whole it wants an agreement, but it doesn't see protecting the UK government from its own folly as its responsibility. On a related matter, the UK, unlike the EU, is not deeply concerned about Liam Fox's incompetence in rolling over third party trade deals:
    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989406060300685312

    I have been warning about the Department for International Trade for some time.

    It should be a dream posting for a civil servant: lots of foreign travel, and plenty of achievements (i.e. deals).

    Staff turnover should have been low. (Turnover at DfExEU is extremely low, as everyone knows the seriousness of what's involved.) But it isn't. Dr Fox has clashed with senior civil servants, repeatedly, and doesn't like to be given information he disagrees with. And so the smarter members of his team have left

    Dr Fox is an Altlantacist (which is no bad thing in general), but there is an almost myopic focus on getting a deal with the US, over replicating existing arrangements. This leads to our partners (such as South Korea) being frustrated that they don't get time, and which led to a very undiplomatic statement by the South Korean government.

    The one area where he appears to have good relationships is with Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Hopefully that will result is positive outcomes sooner rather than later.

    I keep thinking this guy qualified for medical school and became a doctor so he can't be completely stupid. But the evidence to the contrary is really compelling.

    Its a highly competitive race but for me he is the single most useless member of the Cabinet.
    Well so did Harold Shipman and he had a 'poor command of punctuation and spelling':

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2002/jul/22/health.shipman

    And he murdered lots of people.
    I can't help thinking that if Fox tried to murder lots of people it would be (a) very, very messy and (b) result in self inflicted injuries, possibly involving the loss of fingers. He is a useless git.

    So far as Shipman is concerned I love a bit of pedantry as much as the next person but I still think that your criticisms show some indications of an obsession.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:



    Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?

    It's odd. I think the same as yourself..

    Looking at help to buy in the round, it seems a massive bung to housebuilders.
    Which may not be a bad thing, though due to the affordability/LTV situation it creates a situation where new-builds can sell for an artificially higher price than the rest of the market (Than they otherwise might be) since those who can plan 6 years ahead (When the Gov't scheme starts to bite with the whole RPI + 2.75% business on the loans) will pay the loan off early, and those who can't plan 6 years ahead start to subsidise the rest of the scheme with their expensive payments from yr 7 onward.
    Even if you have enough deposit for a 25% put down, it is worth taking the Gov't cash if you're determined to buy a new build - though noting the above arguments a house of existing stock may well be better value for money.

    All in all it's not a bad scheme (Since we need more homes), but it's particularly good if you're the CEO of a big housebuilder Persimmon ;)
    I wonder how the outflows and inflows are doing against the original projections mind.
    Fixed that for you

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/25/persimmon-investors-revolt-bonus-pay-vote
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Why are they actually writing it down rather than waiting for her to sell the flat and then writing it down?

    The rules say you can pay back at any time, the amount being proportional to the current valuation.
    THat's not a bad clause, and makes the scheme actually a little more taxpayer friendly (And individual unfriendly) than my original paragraph proposes.
    But who values the property if you have the readies ready to pay it all back at say 3 years in ?
    & Who pays for the valuation... Can you pay your friendly local surveyor, or does the Gov't pay the surveyor.
    Or is it just done on a general market basis ?
    Nah. You shop around until you get a dodgy surveyor who will write a report at a low value and then submit it...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    1/4 of people assume that anyone with lung problems is/was a smoker says Brokenshire.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Nicola Sturgeon has congratulated Ruth Davidson and her partner about the pregnancy and has told them the baby box is on the way.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:

    “ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."

    Throwing around printers?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2018
    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    I'd certainly want Lord Mandelson on my side in any negotiation, the problem would be figuring out whether he was.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do very much until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    He can get agreements in principle from existing EU trade partners to carry the deals forwards indefinitely and with a view to making them more tailored to the UK economy after we leave. Instead he's fannying about trying to get Trump to do something, which is not realistic.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Lots of kind comments from Mail and Express readers about Ruth Davidson's pregnancy.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    It's quite a pension entitlement though, and isn't it conditional on supporting the EU?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4996440/Lord-Mandelson-must-remain-loyal-to-EU-to-guarantee-pension.html
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
    I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283

    Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:

    “ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."

    Throwing around printers?
    :lol:
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    I'd certainly want Lord Mandelson on my side in any negotiation, the problem would be figuring out whether he was.
    That wins today's internet.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    I'd certainly want Lord Mandelson on my side in any negotiation, the problem would be figuring out whether he was.
    LOL, a fair point!
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,876
    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    In the words of The Blessed Margaret (almost) - We have become a family :D
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,876

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?

    That's a rather sour post Div?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    It's quite a pension entitlement though, and isn't it conditional on supporting the EU?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4996440/Lord-Mandelson-must-remain-loyal-to-EU-to-guarantee-pension.html
    As part of the deal, I think ew are taking responsibility for the pensions of Brits who were in receipt of EU pensions. So that will no longer apply.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. 1000, as an aside, that's interesting for those who think a second Scottish separation vote might be forthcoming, as it sets a pensions precedent.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Has Ruth turned her face to Rome also?!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Why would we care, exactly?

    Getting lessons in being gracious from Nicola is not a good look.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    That's not a very nice thing to say.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Borough, there is a hole in your mind...

    [+3 sci-fi points for those who get the reference].
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Has Ruth turned her face to Rome also?!
    I mean really - who cares ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    It's quite a pension entitlement though, and isn't it conditional on supporting the EU?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4996440/Lord-Mandelson-must-remain-loyal-to-EU-to-guarantee-pension.html
    As an aside, I'd love to see the actual contract.

    There was the lady from the EU's Court of Auditors, who went on to become a UKIP MEP, and she wasn't stripped of her pension. Indeed, has anyone ever been stripped of a pension? Without context it's hard to know exactly how outrageous the terms are.

    I don't think anyone here would object of the stripping of a British pension from someone who joined the French army and fought against us in a war. (At one extreme.) But someone in receipt of a British pension who called for Scottish independence would be another matter altogether.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    edited April 2018
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    That's not a very nice thing to say.
    I shall endeavour to set my standards to your level of civilised 'niceness' in future.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    Mr. Borough, there is a hole in your mind...

    [+3 sci-fi points for those who get the reference].

    Rabbit hole, matrix?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044
    Re Dr Fox: I think the ultimate problem is not incompetence or venality or laziness.

    The problem is that he believes the best way his name can be remembered for 100 years, or for him to get the top job, is for him to deliver an FTA with the US. He sees Brexit as a fundamental reorientation of Britain away from the continent of Europe, and towards the continent of North America. (I think he's largely indifferent to India, China and the rest of Asia.)

    The job of steering the Department for International Trade at this juncture, though, is about steady as she goes, and minimising disruption.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:

    “ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."

    What exactly is it he has never seen before?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    That's not a very nice thing to say.
    I shall endeavour to set my standards to your level of civilised 'niceness' in future.
    Or you could try and avoid blatant sectarianism.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Trump supporters in the UK want him to go to Scotland where they believe he will receive a better welcome than in London which is "far out of touch with ordinary Brits".
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    edited April 2018
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Has Ruth turned her face to Rome also?!
    I mean really - who cares ?
    Since I seem to recall you seeing the sinister hand of Papism everywhere in the past, I'm glad you've moved on from that somewhat regressive state of mind.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,876

    Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:

    “ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."

    What exactly is it he has never seen before?
    Dunno but I can't believe Theresa is throwing printers and mobile phones at her underlings and kicking over coffee tables so it must be a step up on El Gord...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    the telling part of that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283

    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
    They will.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Because the electorate gave that such a ringing endorsement.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,902

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. L, nope. I'll post the answer in a little while, just in case anyone else wants to guess.

    Mr. Meeks, how many references to striking free trade deals [which requires leaving the customs union] were there?

    Also, mentioning something once is still mentioning something. And that video I posted the other day, put up again below, has several major figures making just that point.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R16-ZvH5_ho
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    GIN1138 said:

    Ian Martin in Times, on state of No.10:

    “ 'In all my years I have never seen anything like it, not even under Brown,' says a regular visitor to No 10."

    What exactly is it he has never seen before?
    Dunno but I can't believe Theresa is throwing printers and mobile phones at her underlings and kicking over coffee tables so it must be a step up on El Gord...
    Lack of direction, energy, purpose etc etc seemed to be thrust of the article. And, indeed, people.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,876
    edited April 2018
    Brexiteers might not have done but I'm sure I remember Cameron (and Osborne) claiming that if we vote to leave we'll be "quitting" everything - Single market and customs union?

    Wasn't it also in Cameron's leaflet? I wish I'd kept it and not put it back in the box (without a stamp) to 10 Downing St. now...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
    It's the Leaver obsessives who keep insisting that Brexit without leaving the customs union is some form of betrayal. It's one of those crazy unwarranted assertions that Leavers specialise in.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115
    edited April 2018

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    It doesn't rule out creating a new customs union.

    "...but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement. There may be specific European programmes in which we might want to participate and if so, it will be reasonable that we make a contribution."
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Because the electorate gave that such a ringing endorsement.
    Don't get me wrong, I don't think the government is tied to go either way.

    But equally "no mandate" to leave the Customs Union is also misleading.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. L, nope. I'll post the answer in a little while, just in case anyone else wants to guess.

    Mr. Meeks, how many references to striking free trade deals [which requires leaving the customs union] were there?

    Also, mentioning something once is still mentioning something. And that video I posted the other day, put up again below, has several major figures making just that point.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R16-ZvH5_ho

    No one remembers it. Unsurprising, when all the Leave effort was put into frightening people with xenophobic lies. That's the mandate that Leave secured and that's what has to be honoured.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Political parties can't register as charities.

    So charities are non political - if they want to remain a registeed charity. OXFAM has had to tone down its more political statements.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Political parties can't register as charities.

    So charities are non political - if they want to remain a registeed charity. OXFAM has had to tone down its more political statements.
    They aren't party political. But if your definition is "campaigning for a case", a charity can say campaign for changes to government policy which is "political".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Are there any rules about foreigners in the Cabinet? If not, May should ennoble the Commonwealth's most successful trade negotiator and put them in charge of the dept (a la Carney and the Bank of England).

    This is going to sound stupid, but why not Baron Mandelson?

    There's no place for him in Labour. He's very able. Scandals are no barrier.

    And wouldn't he like something positive to come out of his career?
    Excellent idea. I really wanted him involved in the Brexit negotiations. He knows more about how the EU works than any active UK politician. But this would be a good second best.
    Wouldn't the former Commissioner be parti pris for the Remainer lobby?
    I don't think so. He has never struck me as particularly loyal to anything and he loves a deal, especially one that shows how clever he is. I mean, if we assume for the moment that the Brexit negotiations actually matter for the future success of this country, who would you want in your corner, David Davis or Peter Mandelson? For me, its a no brainer.
    If he'd been made Foreign Secretary instead of Boris Johnson, and given a free hand on foreign policy and Brexit negotiations then you could be right.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
    It's the Leaver obsessives who keep insisting that Brexit without leaving the customs union is some form of betrayal. It's one of those crazy unwarranted assertions that Leavers specialise in.
    so just ignore them, everybody else is.

    the site could almost become readable again
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,743
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Do they? surely Sadiq was noted to be a Muslim, and Tim Farrons Evangelicalism was also heavily featured?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
    It's the Leaver obsessives who keep insisting that Brexit without leaving the customs union is some form of betrayal. It's one of those crazy unwarranted assertions that Leavers specialise in.
    so just ignore them, everybody else is.

    the site could almost become readable again
    Everyone else is bored sick of Brexit and will consign the whole sorry project to the dustbin of history at the first chance they get to express their verdict on it.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Good news though after the devastating snub to the LGBT disabled Jewish community that Harry and Megan have chosen William to be their best man
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,038
    And it IS a Friday!!!!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, I posted a reasonably long and mildly interesting set of pre-weekend notes on F1, and nobody replied.

    Incidentally, the sci-fi quote was from the start of the fifth series of Babylon 5. The first quote is "And so it begins", almost exactly what someone else wrote. Another quote used is "There is a hole in your mind."
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is it triskaidekaphobia when you've got a legitimate reason?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Using some Trump words and his OK hand sign.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,743
    DavidL said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
    I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.
    It is a bit more than cut and paste job, as this little article on the EU Korea trade deal explains:

    https://uktradeforum.net/2018/02/21/rolling-over-eu-free-trade-deals-a-look-at-an-actual-text/

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762

    the telling part o that post is "26 people are talking about this"

    so basically nobody gives a shit
    So why is JRM making so much noise ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Dr Fox: I think the ultimate problem is not incompetence or venality or laziness.

    The problem is that he believes the best way his name can be remembered for 100 years, or for him to get the top job, is for him to deliver an FTA with the US...

    I think that speaks quite strongly to his incompetence.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2018
    Has there been worse Foreign Sec than Boris?? Miliband (banana) springs to mind...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
    I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.
    It is a bit more than cut and paste job, as this little article on the EU Korea trade deal explains:

    https://uktradeforum.net/2018/02/21/rolling-over-eu-free-trade-deals-a-look-at-an-actual-text/

    Maybe it is, he's had almost two years and a government and not a single deal has been agreed in principle. It might not be a simple job, but he's had enough time.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,743
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
    I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.
    It is a bit more than cut and paste job, as this little article on the EU Korea trade deal explains:

    https://uktradeforum.net/2018/02/21/rolling-over-eu-free-trade-deals-a-look-at-an-actual-text/

    Maybe it is, he's had almost two years and a government and not a single deal has been agreed in principle. It might not be a simple job, but he's had enough time.
    I am happy to agree that my colleague and near namesake is a waste of space.

    On the positive side at least he is no longer in clinical practice.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Do you know what the labour manifesto said on this ?

    Genuine Question .
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Is it triskaidekaphobia when you've got a legitimate reason?
    The only legitimate reason is because you are a Templar

    *tinfoil*
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Why on earth would we want to be in a customs union with the EU, to impose a set of common external tariffs on the rest of the world in order to protect EU industries?
    With no UK role in decision-making, the EU will hardly want to protect UK industries.
    And why should we want to featherbed UK industry at the expense of consumers anyway?
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Using some Trump words and his OK hand sign.
    It is a sign of something else
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    O/T In the unlikely event that anyone is in the south Devon area tomorrow evening, you might be interested in this:

    http://theflavel.org.uk/TheFlavel.dll/WhatsOn?Programme=4062454

    Dr. John Ellwood, talking about our reaching out to colonise Mars. I saw his talk last year on the Rosetta Mission (of which he was Project Manager), and it was just magnificent.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited April 2018

    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Do you know what the labour manifesto said on this ?

    Genuine Question .
    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain. Labour will always put jobs and the economy first."

    Strangely ambiguous - you can't really retrain the benefits of the CU if you actually retain the CU.

    EDIT: noted at the time

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-hard-brexit-stance-jeremy-corbyn-eu-withdrawal-keir-starmer-open-britain-campaign-group-a7739226.html

    "Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto made no mention of trying to keep Britain in the customs union, stating instead that Labour would focus on “retaining the benefits” of membership."
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,743
    geoffw said:

    Why on earth would we want to be in a customs union with the EU, to impose a set of common external tariffs on the rest of the world in order to protect EU industries?
    With no UK role in decision-making, the EU will hardly want to protect UK industries.
    And why should we want to featherbed UK industry at the expense of consumers anyway?

    I think that the EU has lower external tarrifs than most other trade blocs or countries.

    Staying in the CU for a decade or so would be quite sensible as a way of disentangling and forming our own deals.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Yes it did.

    Not only did it win a majority of seats in England but a majority of seats in Great Britain.

    Only the inclusion of Northern Ireland MPs prevents the Tories from having an overall UK majority. Except the DUP had the same policy and supports the government on this so still a majority.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Yes it did.

    Not only did it win a majority of seats in England but a majority of seats in Great Britain.

    Only the inclusion of Northern Ireland MPs prevents the Tories from having an overall UK majority. Except the DUP had the same policy and supports the government on this so still a majority.
    The DUP's policy, nay red line, is no divergence on customs between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. If Northern Ireland can't leave, neither can anywhere else.
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    Has there been worse Foreign Sec than Boris?? Miliband (banana) springs to mind...

    Lord Halifax.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    Wasn't Angus Deayton disgraced long ago for some reason I can't now remember? He is back on R4.
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    Friday July 13th will also be the second anniversary of Theresa May becoming the country’s first female PM without a mandate.

    Assuming she isn’t ousted when she keeps us in the customs union.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    No, one of the cops said there must be something in the air for people to behave like that. :tongue:
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    edited April 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Wasn't Angus Deayton disgraced long ago for some reason I can't now remember? He is back on R4.

    Coke & hoors I believe.

    Would probably pass without comment nowadays.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited April 2018
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with the general view of Liam Fox, isn't part of the problem with his department that they can't actually do anything very substantive until we know what the final trade deal with the EU is going to look like?

    It is a problem but the issue of how the plethora of EU deals are going to be rolled over (if they are) is something that should have had his urgent attention. The next priority is to start exploring how we make those deals more win win for us and the other country. Restrictions on products being made elsewhere in the EU that the third country sells would be an obvious example as would be seeking an offset for financial services access.
    I agree with @Max_PB that the failure to make progress on this is pushing us into continuing a Customs Union that looks incredibly like the current one for at least the transitional period.
    It is a bit more than cut and paste job, as this little article on the EU Korea trade deal explains:

    https://uktradeforum.net/2018/02/21/rolling-over-eu-free-trade-deals-a-look-at-an-actual-text/

    Maybe it is, he's had almost two years and a government and not a single deal has been agreed in principle. It might not be a simple job, but he's had enough time.
    I am happy to agree that my colleague and near namesake is a waste of space.

    On the positive side at least he is no longer in clinical practice.

    He is indeed completely useless. My friend who was there has moved to another department and hasn't looked back. Still very Brexit focussed, but actually making some kind of difference.

    The friend was the one who confirmed to me that the civil service have been pushing the customs union option to the government because they have no faith in Fox to roll over the current EU trade deals in time. His department hasn't even set a target of how many deals they want signed or set any kind of priority among the existing deals that should be rolled over first.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Do you know what the labour manifesto said on this ?

    Genuine Question .
    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain. Labour will always put jobs and the economy first."

    Strangely ambiguous - you can't really retrain the benefits of the CU if you actually retain the CU.

    EDIT: noted at the time

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-hard-brexit-stance-jeremy-corbyn-eu-withdrawal-keir-starmer-open-britain-campaign-group-a7739226.html

    "Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto made no mention of trying to keep Britain in the customs union, stating instead that Labour would focus on “retaining the benefits” of membership."
    As with their entire fucking Manifesto, Labour was keen on the merits of cake and of eating of cake.....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Do you really mean that , or is your memory fading ?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Jonathan said:

    It's page 36 of the Conservative manifesto 2017. "We will no longer be members of the single market or customs union."
    Didn't win a majority.
    Yes it did.

    Not only did it win a majority of seats in England but a majority of seats in Great Britain.

    Only the inclusion of Northern Ireland MPs prevents the Tories from having an overall UK majority. Except the DUP had the same policy and supports the government on this so still a majority.
    The DUP's policy, nay red line, is no divergence on customs between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. If Northern Ireland can't leave, neither can anywhere else.
    Northern Ireland can leave.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth Davidson and her partner having a baby.

    Jeezo, just after we'd had the supine media fawning over one royal baby.

    I wonder if they'll be bringing the child up in her partner's faith?
    Only Conservatives and Jewish Labour politicians ever get comments about their faith.

    Telling.
    Do they? surely Sadiq was noted to be a Muslim, and Tim Farrons Evangelicalism was also heavily featured?
    Yeah, but if it wasn't bollocks, just think how telling it would be.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited April 2018
    OT. I was walking along the street when an old man came up to me and asked if I could give him £1. He said he wasn't going to buy drugs he just wanted to have a shower and get clean. He said he'd fought with Frank Bruno and got brain damaged. He showed me this very worn photo which was of Frank Bruno and a black boxer who could have been him. I gave him a £2 coin that I had in my pocket and went on my way. If genuine very sad



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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,290
    edited April 2018

    IanB2 said:

    Wasn't Angus Deayton disgraced long ago for some reason I can't now remember? He is back on R4.

    Coke & hoors I believe.

    Would probably pass without comment nowadays.
    I bet he is well pissed that his career was ruined given how widespread it is within the mejda. HIGNFY has never been the same since he got the boot.
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Friday July 13th will also be the second anniversary of Theresa May becoming the country’s first female PM without a mandate.

    Assuming she isn’t ousted when she keeps us in the customs union.

    So who do you think has a mandate to be PM? Or do you think there should be an instant re-run if any GE does not result in an overall majority?
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    I think B
    Anazina said:

    Using some Trump words and his OK hand sign.
    The OK gesture has been used by the Alt Right....The SJW's (who include bulk of Tory MP's these days it seems) won't be happy at all....
This discussion has been closed.