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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    Today's entry for 'irony is dead' award.

    Owen Jones, a full-time Corbyn cultist, has spent the whole morning complaining the media is a cult afflicted by group-think.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987229001151369216

    You couldn't write this stuff as comedy and get away with it frankly.

    Well this was the guy who a couple of days ago used the fact an MP employed a family member to defend Jezza from criticism. Anybody would think Jezza's sons have nothing to do with assisting in running the cult.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397

    One of today's WTF pieces of news.

    The Saakashvili of western politics.
    Raises an interesting question though: if we were to have a transfer market for European Politicians which politicians should the parties buy and why?

    The Lib Dems would presumably want Macron but are likely to find him too expensive. The remaining Blairites would love to have him too but would presumably be outvoted. Would Labour be tempted by Antonio Costa? He is doing a good job in Portugal and is at least coherent.

    The Tories might think Merkel was just more of the same and possibly past her best anyway. I'd suspect that they would think that Schauble for Hammond would improve team performance considerably. I'd like to think they would not be tempted by Rajoy but there is a bit of the party that is that authoritarian. Mark Rutte seems to have lost some of his early promise but might still be worth a look. Donald Tusk is a class act but would presumably not be acceptable to the Eurosceptic majority. Varadkar looks a bit flashy for UK tastes but can at least speak English.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    Sandpit said:

    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.

    There’s a few of them in the car world. A Vauxhall Nova was called the Opel Corsa when they sold it in Spain, as Nova means “doesn’t go” in Spanish.
    RR "Silver Mist" was mooted before the mistake (in German) was realised.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Today's entry for 'irony is dead' award.

    Owen Jones, a full-time Corbyn cultist, has spent the whole morning complaining the media is a cult afflicted by group-think.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987229001151369216

    You couldn't write this stuff as comedy and get away with it frankly.

    So the Oxford alumnus Jones is saying that people only get where they are in the media because of connections? Alright then.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    Scott_P said:
    I am not up on twitter. Would someone breaking his keyboard over his head achieve that?
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    Latest on Windrush: Alan Johnson says landing cards decision was made in 2009

    Alan Johnson: "It was an administrative decision taken by the UK Border Agency"
    The decision to destroy the landing cards for Windrush migrants was taken under Labour, former home secretary Alan Johnson has said.

    Asked if he knew about the 2009 decision, he told the BBC: "No, it was an administrative decision taken by the UK Border Agency."

    The cards were then destroyed in 2010, when Theresa May was home secretary.

    Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn and Mrs May clashed over the issue at prime minister's questions.

    On Wednesday, Mr Corbyn accused the government of being "callous and incompetent" and asked if Mrs May, then home secretary, had "signed off" on the decision to destroy the landing cards which was now "causing such pain and such stress to a whole generation" of Windrush migrants.

    She replied that the decision had been taken under the previous Labour government in 2009.

    Mr Johnson suggested that Mr Corbyn had been "misled" over the issue: "The previous evening, as I understand it... Number 10 were briefing that this happened in 2010.

    "What she had up her sleeve, whether it was deliberate or whatever - all's fair in love and Prime Minister's Questions - was that the decision was taken under us."


    Politics Hey
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,280
    DavidL said:

    One of today's WTF pieces of news.

    The Saakashvili of western politics.
    Raises an interesting question though: if we were to have a transfer market for European Politicians which politicians should the parties buy and why?

    The Lib Dems would presumably want Macron but are likely to find him too expensive. The remaining Blairites would love to have him too but would presumably be outvoted. Would Labour be tempted by Antonio Costa? He is doing a good job in Portugal and is at least coherent.

    The Tories might think Merkel was just more of the same and possibly past her best anyway. I'd suspect that they would think that Schauble for Hammond would improve team performance considerably. I'd like to think they would not be tempted by Rajoy but there is a bit of the party that is that authoritarian. Mark Rutte seems to have lost some of his early promise but might still be worth a look. Donald Tusk is a class act but would presumably not be acceptable to the Eurosceptic majority. Varadkar looks a bit flashy for UK tastes but can at least speak English.
    What about the much vaunted UK internal market? Well worn (if fallen into disrepute recently) managerial path for Jocks going down south..
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2018
    .
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    nunuone said:

    Anyone paying attention to American polling? According to Harry Enten the "gold" standard polls have shown a big fall of the Dems lead whilst non gold standard polls have shown actually shown a widening in Dem lead. The difference is important for Dems as one lead would likely end up at 6.4% on polling day which would mean GOP retain control of the House.

    Special elections however are showing no tightening in the Dem lead....

    Very interesting American politics leading up to the big Midterms in November. If you are sick of Brexit everyday I suggest you tune in to that, you can avoid the trump stuff.

    Agreed, it's an interesting picture. The table of all polls is here:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

    I'm not sure what Enten sees as gold standard (and why?) and don't have an opinion myself, though there is a general tendency to treat Rasmussen as biased to the Republicans. Overall it's hard to see much of a shift, though the lead might be fractionally down from 7-8ish to 5-6ish?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430
    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397

    DavidL said:

    One of today's WTF pieces of news.

    The Saakashvili of western politics.
    Raises an interesting question though: if we were to have a transfer market for European Politicians which politicians should the parties buy and why?

    The Lib Dems would presumably want Macron but are likely to find him too expensive. The remaining Blairites would love to have him too but would presumably be outvoted. Would Labour be tempted by Antonio Costa? He is doing a good job in Portugal and is at least coherent.

    The Tories might think Merkel was just more of the same and possibly past her best anyway. I'd suspect that they would think that Schauble for Hammond would improve team performance considerably. I'd like to think they would not be tempted by Rajoy but there is a bit of the party that is that authoritarian. Mark Rutte seems to have lost some of his early promise but might still be worth a look. Donald Tusk is a class act but would presumably not be acceptable to the Eurosceptic majority. Varadkar looks a bit flashy for UK tastes but can at least speak English.
    What about the much vaunted UK internal market? Well worn (if fallen into disrepute recently) managerial path for Jocks going down south..
    Labour could do a lot worse than Nicola. And Ruth is obviously needed as badly south of the border as she is by the Tories north of it. Scottish Labour used to produce a fair percentage of the cabinet but I really, genuinely, can't think of anyone there who would improve the worst front bench in living memory. Possibly Jenny Marra? If anything SLab need to import talent, ideally not from Yorkshire. Even Willie Rennie would be an improvement on Cable. At least he doesn't positively annoy people.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    nunuone said:

    Anyone paying attention to American polling? According to Harry Enten the "gold" standard polls have shown a big fall of the Dems lead whilst non gold standard polls have shown actually shown a widening in Dem lead. The difference is important for Dems as one lead would likely end up at 6.4% on polling day which would mean GOP retain control of the House.

    Special elections however are showing no tightening in the Dem lead....

    Very interesting American politics leading up to the big Midterms in November. If you are sick of Brexit everyday I suggest you tune in to that, you can avoid the trump stuff.

    Agreed, it's an interesting picture. The table of all polls is here:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

    I'm not sure what Enten sees as gold standard (and why?) and don't have an opinion myself, though there is a general tendency to treat Rasmussen as biased to the Republicans. Overall it's hard to see much of a shift, though the lead might be fractionally down from 7-8ish to 5-6ish?
    When we say generic, at this stage in the process, what do we mean?

    I have seen polling which uses name once decided, and only A Democrat and A Republican if not.

    Is the result then just the cumulative result?
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited April 2018
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.

    There’s a few of them in the car world. A Vauxhall Nova was called the Opel Corsa when they sold it in Spain, as Nova means “doesn’t go” in Spanish.
    RR "Silver Mist" was mooted before the mistake (in German) was realised.
    In one of William Gibson's early books - I think it's "Virtual Light" - he has a character whose job is to vet product names to ensure they don't mean Dickhead in Swedish. They should have employed him.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Sandpit said:

    Today's entry for 'irony is dead' award.

    Owen Jones, a full-time Corbyn cultist, has spent the whole morning complaining the media is a cult afflicted by group-think.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987229001151369216

    You couldn't write this stuff as comedy and get away with it frankly.

    So the Oxford alumnus Jones is saying that people only get where they are in the media because of connections? Alright then.
    He is an absolute bell.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    I see Carney has done a good job of talking Sterling back down to slightly more reasonable levels: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43831159
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    edited April 2018
    Hmm. Just got my new passport. Mildly surprised as I was expecting burgundy but without the European Union stuff on the front (I'm not fussed, I just thought Apr-Jun was burgundy with the EU stuff absent, and July onwards was blue).

    To be honest, feels a bit lower quality than the old one. Not that it affects me much. I rarely travel to foreign realms beyond the borders of Yorkshire.

    Edited extra bit: also, my old one wasn't enclosed. Does that normally happen?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    Clearly some of the more reactionary regard Theresa May's apology for the Windrush affair as showing a far too lily-livered approach to immigration.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Scott_P said:
    Are those dates right? Should it be 16th-18th April?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Clearly some of the more reactionary regard Theresa May's apology for the Windrush affair as showing a far too lily-livered approach to immigration.

    Obviously that's tongue-in-cheek but worth noting anyhow that this is quite old fieldwork.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397

    Hmm. Just got my new passport. Mildly surprised as I was expecting burgundy but without the European Union stuff on the front (I'm not fussed, I just thought Apr-Jun was burgundy with the EU stuff absent, and July onwards was blue).

    To be honest, feels a bit lower quality than the old one. Not that it affects me much. I rarely travel to foreign realms beyond the borders of Yorkshire.

    Edited extra bit: also, my old one wasn't enclosed. Does that normally happen?

    No, it is usually sent back with the corner snipped so it can't be used. I've got my passports back to the old blue one (which still looks black to me) with a very fresh faced, slightly long haired chap.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Are those dates right? Should it be 16th-18th April?

    Some readers have asked what happened to the last regular Guardian/ICM poll. We normally poll every fortnight, and the results normally appear here, but the last set of figures arrived last week on a day when there was no Politics Live and, when the blog did return, it was entirely Syria-focused for a while, and including voting intention figures did not really seem appropriate.

    But it would be a shame to forget about them completely and, with the Westminster news machine on a go-slow today, it is a good time to post them.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.
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    Hmm. Just got my new passport. Mildly surprised as I was expecting burgundy but without the European Union stuff on the front (I'm not fussed, I just thought Apr-Jun was burgundy with the EU stuff absent, and July onwards was blue).

    To be honest, feels a bit lower quality than the old one. Not that it affects me much. I rarely travel to foreign realms beyond the borders of Yorkshire.

    Edited extra bit: also, my old one wasn't enclosed. Does that normally happen?

    When my husband renewed his in February the old one did indeed come back,
    but in a separate delivery.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
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    Scott_P said:
    Are those dates right? Should it be 16th-18th April?
    No the dates are correct
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    It does look as if any swing to the Tories from national polling is going to be so small that it will be dwarfed by the Corbyn effect in the areas that are voting. I think we will see moderate Labour gains, say 200 councillors and even more modest Tory losses offset by some recoveries from UKIP.

    Its an interesting question how long the polling companies continue to include them in the polling when the party is clearly dead and unlikely to fight another campaign in a meaningful way. They risk distortions once that 4% find out there is no UKIP candidate to vote for.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. L, I got my first (adult) one back like that, but not the more recent (expired) one. Hmm.

    Mrs. Nester, thanks for that, I'll wait and see if it comes. Mildly surprised they wouldn't come together. Not a huge thing, it just surprised me.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430
    Scott_P said:

    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen

    Another privately educated, Oxbridge graduate, using family connections to get on in the world.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Are those dates right? Should it be 16th-18th April?

    Some readers have asked what happened to the last regular Guardian/ICM poll. We normally poll every fortnight, and the results normally appear here, but the last set of figures arrived last week on a day when there was no Politics Live and, when the blog did return, it was entirely Syria-focused for a while, and including voting intention figures did not really seem appropriate.

    But it would be a shame to forget about them completely and, with the Westminster news machine on a go-slow today, it is a good time to post them.
    Thanks. I should have read the article but was too lazy.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    Scott_P said:

    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen

    I don’t think this is a great decision.
    But, I haven’t heard another suggestion, either.
    The Queen will be pleased. Job done.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Walker, that's a fair point. If not HM (who is head of state of plenty of Commonwealth nations besides our own) isn't to lead the Commonwealth, who is?

    Make it political and you, necessarily, politicise it. HM can be a figurehead for the Commonwealth just as she is for the UK, whilst leaving the grubby practicalities of governance to elected (mostly) politicians.

    Not to say Charles might not bugger this up. We must wish Her Majesty many more years of good health.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,280
    edited April 2018

    Scott_P said:

    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen

    I don’t think this is a great decision.
    But, I haven’t heard another suggestion, either.
    The Queen will be pleased. Job done.
    I guess the dynastic urge is a very strong one to resist.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    DavidL said:

    It does look as if any swing to the Tories from national polling is going to be so small that it will be dwarfed by the Corbyn effect in the areas that are voting. I think we will see moderate Labour gains, say 200 councillors and even more modest Tory losses offset by some recoveries from UKIP.

    Its an interesting question how long the polling companies continue to include them in the polling when the party is clearly dead and unlikely to fight another campaign in a meaningful way. They risk distortions once that 4% find out there is no UKIP candidate to vote for.
    Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2%, they are now level pegging with the Tories in polls but their biggest gains since 2014 have been in London.

    That suggests Labour net gains from the Tories in London but small net Tory gains from Labour in the rest of the country.

    The LDs will do well in Remain areas like SW London but likely less well in areas which had a big UKIP vote in 2014 though nimbyism may help their vote in the Home Counties
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    Roughly like this, I think. The devil will be in the detail. We may need to trade financial services for some control over freedom of movement.
    Quite an improvement on Dave's deal...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    I have to go now, but Thiem losing 5-0 to Nadal in the first set is not necessarily conducive to his victory...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Scott_P said:

    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen

    It will annoy the Corbynistas...cos like what has Prince Charles ever done, he never campaigns on any issues....just ask government ministers over the past 25 years, they never get letters on a weekly basis about the plight of the Amazonian lesser spotted bull frog.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    To be completely fair to Jones, his interview videos are very good, especially the ones with those whom he disagrees politically. Not many leftist media types would be up for talking to Dan Hannan or Jacob R-M except to try and catch them out.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    I was thinking about working rights not tourism. The latter could easily be handled through a visa waiver programme.
    Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?
    Same as now.
    I.e. you don’t.
    Working on a tourist visa is illegal. The Border Patrol polices this through a combination of spot checks and intelligence led activity. They should continue to do so.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    The Morning Star delivered free to all households and RT beamed into all places of work.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Mr. L, I got my first (adult) one back like that, but not the more recent (expired) one. Hmm.

    Mrs. Nester, thanks for that, I'll wait and see if it comes. Mildly surprised they wouldn't come together. Not a huge thing, it just surprised me.

    The old one comes back under separate cover, usually a few days later. I guess the office where they handle the applications is in a different place from where they print the passports.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Scott_P said:

    Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Leaders at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Retreat at Windsor Castle have discussed the Commonwealth Succession and approved Prince Charles as the next Head of the Commonwealth after the Queen

    I don’t think this is a great decision.
    But, I haven’t heard another suggestion, either.
    The Queen will be pleased. Job done.
    It might have been better done 20 years ago. Given modern longevity we could very well have a succession of kings aged 70-90; the Commonwealth job with the attendant travel might be better suited to 50-70.

    I wonder whether a convention has been established today?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430
    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    Be interesting to see the proposals that Labour are cooking up on this.

    There has been at least one attempt iirc to set up a independent, leftish newspaper with union involvement.

    It bombed totally.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430
    Snap!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2018
    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    I think he must mean that he wants half of BBC employees to be Leavers, lots of journalists to be over 65, most commentators to favour capital punishment, that sort of thing
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The irony is that Owen is broadly correct about the media (though, putting the class issues to one side, I'd argue having a mainstream media located around the centre is probably a good thing for national harmony).

    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/987283631650623490
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/987296186372587520
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430

    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    I think he must mean that he wants half of BBC employees to be Leavers, lots of journalists to be over 65, most commentators to favour capital punishment, that sort of thing
    Sadly, I suspect Owens is simply helping along the growing narrative within the cult that if they fail to sweep to victory in 2022, it will be mostly down to the media.* The blame game has already started.


    * the rest of the blame will be on Blairites.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Hmm. Just got my new passport. Mildly surprised as I was expecting burgundy but without the European Union stuff on the front (I'm not fussed, I just thought Apr-Jun was burgundy with the EU stuff absent, and July onwards was blue).

    To be honest, feels a bit lower quality than the old one. Not that it affects me much. I rarely travel to foreign realms beyond the borders of Yorkshire.

    Edited extra bit: also, my old one wasn't enclosed. Does that normally happen?

    No, it is usually sent back with the corner snipped so it can't be used. I've got my passports back to the old blue one (which still looks black to me) with a very fresh faced, slightly long haired chap.
    I believe these days you have to tick a better x on the form to get it sent back
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2018
    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    It’s probably a bit of both. It can be both true that Jones can be a bit of an idiot at times, and also that journos might not react well to him because his political views are out of whack with liberal centrism.
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    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    He also doesn't get how the left view gay rights. Clue: look at Russia.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430

    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,788

    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    I think he must mean that he wants half of BBC employees to be Leavers
    Slightly over half, surely?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
    Yes, before the great betrayal...
    image
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2018

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    His output has been any different to what he’s writing now? I know there was a time when even he gave up on Corbyn, but I can’t say I’ve noticed much change in his output over the years.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    glw said:

    ...and he's doubling down on it all. Please can any PBers send in example of Owen's work for local papers where most journalists learn their trade, rather than parachuting into a columnists role via a book.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987284850766962688

    "The fight for a representative media won't be easy, but it can be won." Somehow I think Owen's definition of representative media would be wildly at odds with anything found in a dictionary.
    I think he must mean that he wants half of BBC employees to be Leavers, lots of journalists to be over 65, most commentators to favour capital punishment, that sort of thing
    Sadly, I suspect Owens is simply helping along the growing narrative within the cult that if they fail to sweep to victory in 2022, it will be mostly down to the media.* The blame game has already started.


    * the rest of the blame will be on Blairites.
    And shadowy wealthy Jews, of course.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,430

    Charles said:

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
    Yes, before the great betrayal...
    image
    Clearly the wrong kind of journalist. #changeiscoming
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    His output has been any different to what he’s writing now? I know there was a time when even he gave up on Corbyn, but I can’t say I’ve noticed much change in his output over the years.
    I'd say he's got more personal in his attacks and ever more prone to pander to his huge following. He's also become even more of a cheerleader (obviousness as a polemicist that's reasonable, up to a point).

    The spat between him and Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian) yesterday was illuminating (I think she's spot-on).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    The irony is that Owen is broadly correct about the media (though, putting the class issues to one side, I'd argue having a mainstream media located around the centre is probably a good thing for national harmony).

    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/987283631650623490
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/987296186372587520

    So I what we really need more of is very right wing journalists who went to comprehensive schools?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    edited April 2018

    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
    I'd settle for journalists reporting and discussing both sides fairly and letting readers use their own brains. Dan always used to be a good read, but he's turned into a boring one-track mind. And yes, I'd like Polly Toynbee to air alternative arguments too, if only to say why she disagreed with them. The Watergate experience has infected far too many writers with the idea that their job is to campaign rather than to (also) inform.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Welsh Tories win the Overmonnow by election

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WelshConserv/status/987278284496031744
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
    I'd settle for journalists reporting and discussing both sides fairly and letting readers use their own brains. Dan always used to be a good read, but he's turned into a boring one-track mind. And yes, I'd like Polly Toynbee to air alternative arguments too, if only to say why she disagreed with them. The Watergate experience has infected far too many writers with the idea that their job is to campaign rather than to (also) inform.
    Ironically Watergate was a classic example of old-fashioned investigative reporting rather than polemical campaigning. Too many journalists think we are - or ought to be - interested in their opinions. With most of them you can work out what they are going to say from the headline or the first paragraph and there is little point going further - the rest will be both trite and obvious, much like most political comedians these days. There seems little appetite for the thoughtful, surprising and well-argued.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    His output has been any different to what he’s writing now? I know there was a time when even he gave up on Corbyn, but I can’t say I’ve noticed much change in his output over the years.
    I'd say he's got more personal in his attacks and ever more prone to pander to his huge following. He's also become even more of a cheerleader (obviousness as a polemicist that's reasonable, up to a point).

    The spat between him and Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian) yesterday was illuminating (I think she's spot-on).
    I didn’t see that spat yesterday so just went to Marie Le Conte’s twitter to check it out - yes I agree, she’s absolutely right in what she says about pile ons and online discourse. I suppose I’ve not picked up on the more aggressive tone Jones’ has adopted on twitter because it seems to have become so normalised in political discourse online generally.

    Tbh I put him being a cheerleader being down to the fact that the Labour leadership now reflects his views. Whereas when he first came to prominence the Labour leadership didn’t reflect his worldview.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    HYUFD said:
    Town Council only. However that part of Monmouth has significant new housing, enabling the old Labour voters to be out counted.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    His output has been any different to what he’s writing now? I know there was a time when even he gave up on Corbyn, but I can’t say I’ve noticed much change in his output over the years.
    I found his early stuff a bit light on evidence... he now comes across as much better informed. His youtube channel is sometimes really good - when he lets his guests speak and expand on their views. And the diversity of viewpoints he has shown is really impressive. I like it when he finds common ground with Peter Hitchens or JRM.

    The recent interview with Jon Lansmann was very interesting on anti-semitism.
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    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
    I'd settle for journalists reporting and discussing both sides fairly and letting readers use their own brains. Dan always used to be a good read, but he's turned into a boring one-track mind. And yes, I'd like Polly Toynbee to air alternative arguments too, if only to say why she disagreed with them. The Watergate experience has infected far too many writers with the idea that their job is to campaign rather than to (also) inform.
    Could you not argue that an ex-labour man who sees his party now out of power for 8 years and counting, is right to keep banging on about the things or people who he thinks are stopping a credible Labour party getting back in to power... might that not explain a supposed 'one track mind'? I seem to recall he was also dismissed by some on the left for continually criticising EICIPM.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
    Yes, before the great betrayal...
    image
    I thought that before that he was a Blairite whipping dog who then ratted to join the proletariat heros. Surprised that a rat ever got inside the circle of trust... that he re-ratted* is just proof that it should never happen again.

    * and only Churchill gets to re-re-rat. And Owen ain’t Churchill...
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT it looks like HMQ has cleaned up on the "next head of the Commonwealth" betting. Well done to all pbers who followed her in. I suppose this rules Prince Charles out of the Arsenal job.
    Prince Charles to be next Commonwealth head
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43840710
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    HYUFD said:
    It was a ‘hold', wasn’t it. With a drop in the Conservative vote share?
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    Also aren't we conflating columnists with journalists - aren't the former supposed to be opinionated and the latter not so much?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Tbh I put him being a cheerleader being down to the fact that the Labour leadership now reflects his views. Whereas when he first came to prominence the Labour leadership didn’t reflect his worldview.

    But they reflected his views before, when he gave up on them as politically incompetent. Obviously we all have lessons to learn from June 2017 but I don't think "back Corbyn 100%" should be one of them.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    HYUFD said:
    Anyone got the Perth & Kinross result yet? Its actually quite key as the Council is currently 16 Tories, 15 SNP plus some also rans. If the SNP win they may well regain control of the Council.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
    Yes, before the great betrayal...
    image
    I thought that before that he was a Blairite whipping dog who then ratted to join the proletariat heros. Surprised that a rat ever got inside the circle of trust... that he re-ratted* is just proof that it should never happen again.

    * and only Churchill gets to re-re-rat. And Owen ain’t Churchill...
    You can join the heroes from whatever tradition cf. Emily Thornberry. But betrayal can't ever be forgiven.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    HYUFD said:
    It was a ‘hold', wasn’t it. With a drop in the Conservative vote share?
    A win is a win in a by election when you are the governing party
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited April 2018

    HYUFD said:
    Town Council only. However that part of Monmouth has significant new housing, enabling the old Labour voters to be out counted.
    Shows the importance of the Tories getting more new builds to buy
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
    I'd settle for journalists reporting and discussing both sides fairly and letting readers use their own brains. Dan always used to be a good read, but he's turned into a boring one-track mind. And yes, I'd like Polly Toynbee to air alternative arguments too, if only to say why she disagreed with them. The Watergate experience has infected far too many writers with the idea that their job is to campaign rather than to (also) inform.
    Which countries do you think have a better media than Britain?
    At least here we have the BBC.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Anyone got the Perth & Kinross result yet? Its actually quite key as the Council is currently 16 Tories, 15 SNP plus some also rans. If the SNP win they may well regain control of the Council.

    Kevin Alcock - @kevina364: Highland (Perth & Kinross) 1st pref Con 1907 SNP 1466 Ind 280 Lab 239 Green 104 LD 79 Ind 12 - Con Hold after round 6 on STV -1st Pref Swing (May 2017) SNP-Con 1.9%
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Charles said:

    * and only Churchill gets to re-re-rat. And Owen ain’t Churchill...

    There's only one British political figure who thinks he's Churchill. I wonder when he'll rat on Brexit?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @rkrkrk I haven’t see the Lansmann interview yet, I’ll try and watch it soon.

    @Tissue_Price Prior to giving up on Corbyn, Jones IIRC was a cheerleader in much of the same way he is now. I think he might look back the 2017 GE thinking that Corbyn’s day to day incompetence didn’t matter as much as he thought it would given the result.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It was a ‘hold', wasn’t it. With a drop in the Conservative vote share?
    A win is a win in a by election when you are the governing party
    Do I hear the sound of whistling? It’s a bit windy at the moment!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone got the Perth & Kinross result yet? Its actually quite key as the Council is currently 16 Tories, 15 SNP plus some also rans. If the SNP win they may well regain control of the Council.

    Kevin Alcock - @kevina364: Highland (Perth & Kinross) 1st pref Con 1907 SNP 1466 Ind 280 Lab 239 Green 104 LD 79 Ind 12 - Con Hold after round 6 on STV -1st Pref Swing (May 2017) SNP-Con 1.9%
    Thanks Scott. A good result.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Some people may not like Owen Jones (I don’t agree with all of what he says) but in period in which Corbyn’s Labour is polling 40%, it’s important to get an insight into how Corbynistas see the world. In that sense, he’s useful (his YouTube channel isn’t bad either - his interviews with various political figures including JRM, Hitchens and Soubry are pretty interesting). As it happens, I think the charge of ‘groupthink’ is something which could be applied to both the Labour Party leadership and the media.

    Yes, I follow Owen Jones on Twitter. But (imo) his desperation to be allowed back into the Corbynite circle of trust [which he'll never be] has increasingly affected the quality of his output.
    Back into?
    Yes, before the great betrayal...
    image
    I thought that before that he was a Blairite whipping dog who then ratted to join the proletariat heros. Surprised that a rat ever got inside the circle of trust... that he re-ratted* is just proof that it should never happen again.

    * and only Churchill gets to re-re-rat. And Owen ain’t Churchill...
    You can join the heroes from whatever tradition cf. Emily Thornberry. But betrayal can't ever be forgiven.
    Did someone mention Lady Nugee?

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/20/thornberry-dont-accept-russia-blocking-chemical-weapons-inspectors/

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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It was a ‘hold', wasn’t it. With a drop in the Conservative vote share?
    A win is a win in a by election when you are the governing party
    If the Conservatives were to have lost Overmonnow-a posh area of posh Monmouth- they would have something of an issue!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Doh! Jeremy Corbyn

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/20/corbyn-forgets-israel-independence-day/

    The militant fighter against Anti semitism who errrr does nothing.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone got the Perth & Kinross result yet? Its actually quite key as the Council is currently 16 Tories, 15 SNP plus some also rans. If the SNP win they may well regain control of the Council.

    Kevin Alcock - @kevina364: Highland (Perth & Kinross) 1st pref Con 1907 SNP 1466 Ind 280 Lab 239 Green 104 LD 79 Ind 12 - Con Hold after round 6 on STV -1st Pref Swing (May 2017) SNP-Con 1.9%
    Good results for the Tories in both Wales and Scotland today then
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,472

    Scott_P said:

    There does seem to be a consensus among journalists that Owen is a bit of a numpty.

    Is that cultish groupthink, or objective reporting?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987302548100059142
    And, so, the nail has been hit on the head.

    As I say, Owen is helping along the narrative that the British will reject hard socialism at the ballot box because of the media's reporting of Corbyn.
    I'd settle for journalists reporting and discussing both sides fairly and letting readers use their own brains. Dan always used to be a good read, but he's turned into a boring one-track mind. And yes, I'd like Polly Toynbee to air alternative arguments too, if only to say why she disagreed with them. The Watergate experience has infected far too many writers with the idea that their job is to campaign rather than to (also) inform.
    Toynbee is appalling.
This discussion has been closed.