politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term
After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on weather Trump will serve a full first term.
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I just can't see Trump going willingly - and I think he'll stand for a second term.
Spell-check malfunction Boss!
I am not sure evidence of previous dodgy dealings in real estate (just like previous stories of bonking Porn Stars) will make much difference, as they are pretty much factored in to who TheDonald is.
They need to have him, and him personally, doing something very dodgy with the Russians in relation to the election.
There's an easy statement to make for once.
The question is whether the ems would force it through the house knowing it wouldn't be passed in the Senate.
Realistically, 52 would be an amazing achievement for them.
The House may well vote to impeach - as they did with Clinton - knowing that it will stop almost everything else in Washington for a year or more and cause ructions among the Republican Party.
On balance, given the numbers in the Senate and Trump's behaviour so far, my assessment would be that the market is overstating the likelihood of him going; I think I'd put it at around 10% to 15%, not 34%. However, it's not an assessment one can really make with any confidence.
https://www.easa.europa.eu/brexit-negotiations
"NOTICE TO STAKEHOLDERS - WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED KINGDOM AND EU AVIATION SAFETY RULES" on the European Commission website, which says:
Certificates issued before the withdrawal date by the competent authorities of the United Kingdom on the basis of the provisions of the Basic Regulation and its implementing rules will no longer be valid as of the withdrawal date in the EU. This concerns in particular:
Certificates of airworthiness, restricted certificates of airworthiness, permits to fly, approvals of organisations responsible for the maintenance of products, parts and appliances, approvals for organisations responsible for the manufacture of products, parts and appliances, approvals for maintenance training organisations, and certificates for personnel responsible for the release of a product, part or appliance after maintenance, issued pursuant to Article 5 of the Basic Regulation;
Pilot licences, pilot medical certificates, certificates for pilot training organisations, certificates for aero-medical centres, certificates for flight simulation training devices, certificates for persons responsible for providing flight training, flight simulation training or assessing pilots' skill, and certificates for aero medical examiners, issued pursuant to Article 7 of the Basic Regulation;
Certificates for air operators and attestations for the cabin crew, issued pursuant to Article 8 of the Basic Regulation;
Certificates for aerodromes, certificates for ATM/ANS providers, licences and medical certificates for air traffic controllers, certificates for air traffic controller training organisations, certificates for aero medical centres and aero medical examiners responsible for air traffic controllers, certificates for persons
etc
It's pretty much an in-depth timeline (nearly 10,000 words) of what's happened and does not provide much, if anything, we do not already know.
Wonder what jezza will be reading this weekend?
Where as you are waiting for Putin's?
"Certificates issued before the withdrawal date by the competent authorities of all EU countries on the basis of the provisions of the Basic Regulation and its implementing rules will no longer be valid as of the withdrawal date in the UK. This concerns in particular certificates of airworthiness ...."
Buy shares in car ferry companies!
I will do my best Jezbollah :-)
One would have thought that it would have been astute to incorporate this issue in the Transition deal.
Project Fear with knobs on, clearly not even attempting the good faith that was agreed only a couple of months ago.
While the decision seems unfair, I do wonder why a) he left it so late and b) who would think that there wouldn't be a problem (at very least not check) in leaving it so late that your visa will have expired by the time you are to be processed.
There seems to be a lot of people who think hey they don't really take visas seriously in the uk and will sort it whenever.
Yes, I’m expecting this all to be resolved before we leave the EU, but publishing such scaremongering documents is clearly not even attempting good faith in negotiations.
Libby had been convicted of perjury in 2007 in the investigation into who leaked the identity of CIA officer Valerie Plame.
AGAIN!!!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43751440
Shouldn’t you be reading the real true story of Salisbury via the Russian 10k word report?
I don't know whether to laugh at you or cry
https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/984674983376052225
You must be getting really frustrated no missiles have been launched yet.
When did you last oppose military action.
Libya? Iraq? Afghanistan?
Of course the Americans with Labours help fecked it up by going into Iraq on a lie
I mean how many times does military intervention have to make things worse before your knees jerk over and over again??
Is your irrevocable default position that military action is never to be contemplated.
If we are to have a pacifist as LotO then Jezza should be open about his position, as he is want to advise others to be so.
Not to mention people may have supported one but not the others.
Its just a total waste of money. He should just be given the opportunity of regularising his situation.
And I bet you believed the WMD row
Plus they were happy to send people to war without adequate stocks of pain relief (amongst other things)
You on the other hand have ignored anti semitism and appear to have learnt nothing from history
interventions have been ill advised in the past but that does not mean all future interventions are wrong otherwise the International rules based system on WMD becomes meaningless and any state has license to gas babies, women and ordinary people.
Russia even tried to blame the white helmets for the attack today and at the same time said there was no attack.
I am in favour of an attack to degrade Assad's ability to produce the chemicals involved and the means of delivery, nothing else.
If the allies and NATO decide to take action then we should support them. TM has a difficult responsibilty but if the attacks do not happen then she should put it before Parliament on monday where I would expect her to win support and at the same time fracture the labour party
In a situation like this a stand has to be made against WMD
You a troofer ?
Reading your crap I could believe it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-13/russia-has-irrefutable-evidence-uk-staged-syrian-chemical-attack
and the wonderful former UK ambassador to Syria, Peter Ford, says the same thing:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-11/former-uk-ambassador-syria-syrian-chemical-weapons-attack-was-staged-islamic-jihadi
The government lies to us all the time - they've lied to us over global warming, ahem man made climate change, they've lied to us about the future security of our food supplies, they've lied to us over the Panama Papers and Paradise Papers and covered up the fraud, theft and money laundering operations that many MP's and members of the House of Lords are linked to (documented fact via prima facie companies house evidence), they've lied to us the reason they got involved in Syria in the first place (in order to get gas and oil pipelines built through there from Qatar in order to reduce European dependence on Russian energy), they've lied to us about what they're doing to the NHS and they've lied to us about covering up historic child sexual abuse linked to Westminster (just have a look at the Exaro News directors apart from Mark Watts and where their fellow directorships and associated directors leads for starters).
With a record like that, the government is the last thing I would ever trust. And a lot of the general population over the coming years are going to come to the hard realisation that you cannot trust the government, just as Eastern Europe and Russia found out the hard way with the collapse of communism in the late 1980's and early 1990's.
In all seriousness though, the UN is not a perfect organisation, are there never situations in which they cannot be the avenue taken? UN members don't subcontract all foreign and military affairs to the UN.
Jezza has never supported any military action whether humanitarian or UN sanctioned. If it quacks etc ....
Second - why is it that we cannot trust our government about anything, but if another government says something it can be taken at face value?
You cannot have it both ways, hunchman. If the government is as amazingly controlling and nefarious as you claim - and successful at it - why are they so easily found out by you all the time?
Israel claims an unmanned Iranian drone was armed with explosives to attack Israel
Israel's military has said the aircraft it shot down in February was on its way to attack Israel.
Following an "operational and intelligence-based investigation" the military has concluded the "Iranian aircraft was armed with explosives and was tasked to attack Israeli territory", it said.
Yesterday: was no attack, our people on the ground have tested, total fake news
Today: There was a chemical attack, but the British did it.
It's almost as if they're making up any old BS day by day.
You have the Government going around deporting vulnerable people who have been here for 40 years, and who probably have every moral right to be here, yet they don't have the paperwork. It's only the guardian that report on it. Thats one of the reasons why I am a guardian 'supporter'.
Whenever it comes up on PB, the poor person involved is inevitably cast as a liar with something to hide, with the guardian only telling 'one side of the story', yet of course the PB commentariat show no actual inclination to look in to what is really going on or find out the truth.
As for this guys case, people in the 20's are often late in sorting paperwork out. It happens to us all. It shouldn't be a big deal. Its a life lesson, not a ground to haul someone through the courts to deport them. The Home office bureaucracy has gone rogue and needs to be set straight.
Your contention is that these people commit every type of corruption known to man, and cover it all up, but put out a breadcrumb of clues for people to dig through.
In reality Jezza would have been an active Antifascist, perhaps in Spain.
As for the general population not noticing, I would argue that they are beginning to notice, not as quickly as I would like, granted, but things are starting to move. People generally think that governments are a lot cleverer than they really are. In reality, this government has been incredibly incompetent over Skripal and Syria. On Skripal the story was initially that they weren't going to survive as it was alleged to be military grade Novichok, which it obviously wasn't. They were so incompetent that the poor guinea pigs and the black Persian died through famine and hunger, and obviously didn't search their house......or they did and then had to destroy the pets as they didn't fit in with the official narrative.
On your second point, Lavrov wouldn't be so stupid as to say there is irrefutable evidence, and then not able to produce the said evidence.
On your final point, the government are found out a lot of the time because they're thoroughly incompetent, and can't see that more and more people are now seeing past their outrageous and disgusting lies on so many matters, with horrible consequences for many people, not least the poor oppressed people in Syria.