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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    How many people will die as a result
    Ask Gordon Brown. I'm sure he must have the numbers on additional particuate deaths. He was the biggest proponent of ramping up diesel ownership by cutting the price as against unleaded.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RoyalBlue said:

    WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN
    Brilliant how you trivialise an important issue. Diesel pollution is literally killing people. Yet you find the whole topic amusing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Anazina said:

    Brilliant how you trivialise an important issue. Diesel pollution is literally killing people. Yet you find the whole topic amusing.
    I hope Sussex' bus fleet is all electric...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Who is that **** on Sky news - Peter something?

    Just turned on and find myself screaming at tv
  • Anazina said:

    Brilliant how you trivialise an important issue. Diesel pollution is literally killing people. Yet you find the whole topic amusing.
    Labour- literally killing people since 1997
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/01/uk-government-wrong-to-subsidise-diesel-says-former-minister
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Well of course! That is Tory foreign policy for you.

    Under different management we need not be a force for bad. It is why we need change.
    Someone has a bad ... or very selective memory
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RoyalBlue said:

    WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN
    Just bought a new Diesel.........

    ducks and covers
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Labour- literally killing people since 1997
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/01/uk-government-wrong-to-subsidise-diesel-says-former-minister
    Yes, it was a major mistake. I wasn't making a partisan point (you were?) FWIW I am hardly an enthusiastic party wallah unlike many of the sycophantics on here.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Anazina said:

    Brilliant how you trivialise an important issue. Diesel pollution is literally killing people. Yet you find the whole topic amusing.
    Petrol pollution is also literally killing people, so can you confirm that you never travel by either method nor consume any form of good which has ever been transported by either method? Or are you just a callous MURDERER?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Russia has 'proof' UK behind chemical attack
    Russia's defence ministry has said it has 'proof that testifies to the direct participation of Britain in the organising of this provocation in Eastern Ghouta'.

    Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the UK had told the White Helmets, who act as first responders in rebel-held areas, to fake the suspected chemical attack in the town of Douma.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope Sussex' bus fleet is all electric...
    Indeed so, but I don't understand the relevance of Sussex particularly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Petrol pollution is also literally killing people, so can you confirm that you never travel by either method nor consume any form of good which has ever been transported by either method? Or are you just a callous MURDERER?
    As for lithium and nickel production pollution to fuel electric cars...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    Well of course! That is Tory foreign policy for you.

    Under different management we need not be a force for bad. It is why we need change.
    Clearly you don't subscribe to the "my country, right or wrong" worldview.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Anazina said:

    Clearly you don't subscribe to the "my country, right or wrong" worldview.
    Clearly he uses any stick to bash the tories
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Anazina said:

    Indeed so, but I don't understand the relevance of Sussex particularly.
    Check back about 4 pages Bob job :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Foxy said:

    Well of course! That is Tory foreign policy for you.

    Under different management we need not be a force for bad. It is why we need change.
    In what way do you think Britain is a force for bad in the world?

    And do you think that allying us with Russia will make us a force for good?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Floater said:

    Who is that **** on Sky news - Peter something?

    Just turned on and find myself screaming at tv

    Floater said:

    Who is that **** on Sky news - Peter something?

    Just turned on and find myself screaming at tv

    Head of British Armed forces on Sky said it was more than possible a set up.They cut him off quick
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570
    Cyclefree said:

    In what way do you think Britain is a force for bad in the world?

    And do you think that allying us with Russia will make us a force for good?
    I'm more surprised to learn that the Tories under Boris have a foreign policy.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    I’ve got a Fabia and there are pairing connectivity issues. In particular, sometimes the sound drops out on the satnav.
    I have a 2002 Fiesta and no problems with its bluetooth or satnav.

    The tape player works fine too.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Floater said:

    Russia has 'proof' UK behind chemical attack
    Russia's defence ministry has said it has 'proof that testifies to the direct participation of Britain in the organising of this provocation in Eastern Ghouta'.

    Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the UK had told the White Helmets, who act as first responders in rebel-held areas, to fake the suspected chemical attack in the town of Douma.

    I am sure we will have the same level of scepticism expressed about this proof by Corbyn and his helpers on here and elsewhere as they’ve shown to the Government’s proof about Russian responsibility for the attack on the Skripals.

    Or perhaps not......
  • Anazina said:

    Yes, it was a major mistake. I wasn't making a partisan point (you were?) FWIW I am hardly an enthusiastic party wallah unlike many of the sycophantics on here.
    I'd say I'm partisan in that I don't find any of our current Parties particularly appealing!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited April 2018
    Anazina said:

    "That does not change the fact the US, France and ***IRAQ*** are the 3 largest western military powers"
    I said US, France and UK originally, you then effectively ceased your argument
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ask Gordon Brown. I'm sure he must have the numbers on additional particuate deaths. He was the biggest proponent of ramping up diesel ownership by cutting the price as against unleaded.
    Don't worry - they had EU regulations covering emissions - not sure how we will cope after Brexit.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited April 2018
    HYUFD said:

    In terms of ability to deploy armed forces overseas, air and sea power, quality of special forces and possession of nuclear weapons and not being in the West Iraq is of course not one of the 3 largest western military powers
    An admission of an error? Has interface with the Epping electorate led to a more humble HYUFD??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018

    Head of British Armed forces on Sky said it was more than possible a set up.They cut him off quick
    Former Head....no guesses for what the latest tweet / article from the Skwawkbox is...and of course "Dr" Eoin is still pushing all the conspiracy theories.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I'd say I'm partisan in that I don't find any of our current Parties particularly appealing!
    Agreed!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Anazina said:

    An admission of an error?
    If you want to accept that almost all western military interventions involve the UK, France and the USA fine
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    Cyclefree said:

    I am sure we will have the same level of scepticism expressed about this proof by Corbyn and his helpers on here and elsewhere as they’ve shown to the Government’s proof about Russian responsibility for the attack on the Skripals.

    Or perhaps not......
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/984812315320217606
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,485
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: my pre-qualifying ramble, including a tip, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/china-pre-qualifying-2018.html

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    Cyclefree said:

    In what way do you think Britain is a force for bad in the world?

    And do you think that allying us with Russia will make us a force for good?
    In general, I'd say that most wealthy democracies are a force for good, if only because they set an example that others can follow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/984812315320217606
    This is the Fake News crap some people are reading and believing...

    https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/984808846559531008
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Former Head....no guesses for what the latest tweet / article from the Skwawkbox is...and of course "Dr" Eoin is still pushing all the conspiracy theories.
    You on there again. I think you have a problem.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Justified outrage from Iain Martin, although I think the target of his anger is wrong. It should be the government, not the Home Office. The issue is defined and historical. It requires legislation that I think should be simple. Government refusal to engage on this is stupid and callous.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/984785250885750784
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018

    You on there again. I think you have a problem.
    I am not the one drinking the KoolAid, believing all their Alex Jones inspired conspiracy theories they pump out every day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    Floater said:

    Russia has 'proof' UK behind chemical attack
    Russia's defence ministry has said it has 'proof that testifies to the direct participation of Britain in the organising of this provocation in Eastern Ghouta'.

    Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the UK had told the White Helmets, who act as first responders in rebel-held areas, to fake the suspected chemical attack in the town of Douma.

    Have the Russians mentioned Finchley Road?
  • I have been doing some experiments looking at seats over time. In the US, they assign states a partisan lean based on comparing the national vote to the vote in that state. So if the Reps win nationally by 2% but by 20% in Alaska then Alaska is R+18. I've done a similar exercise where I have picked Lab-Con seats, which have had minimal boundary changes and looked at them over time.

    First 3 seats in the big cities that have seen a massive swing to Lab:

    Year Edmonton Leeds NE B. Edgbaston
    1992 L+7 C+1 C+3
    1997 L+17 L+2 C+3
    2001 L+19 L+9 L+3
    2005 L+20 L+10 L+3
    2010 L+31 L+17 L+10
    2015 L+44 L+22 L+14
    2017 L+50 L+34 L+18

    Next 3 seats that have swung the other way

    Year Cannock Harlow Newcastle-U-Lyme
    1992 L+11 L+3 L+26
    1997 L+15 L+9 L+22
    2001 L+18 L+4 L+17
    2005 L+18 C+3 L+17
    2010 Even C+4 L+11
    2015 C+4 C+12 L+9
    2017 C+16 C+14 L+2

    There are also have a few, which have hardly changed. Calder Valley looks like a good national bellweather

    Year Bedford Calder Valley
    1992 Even
    1997 L+4 C+2
    2001 L+6 C+2
    2005 L+5 Even
    2010 L+4 C+5
    2015 L+5 C+1
    2017 L+4 L+1

    Another seat that looks interesting is Chingford, which was rock solid during the Blair years but has swung rapidly to the Labour in the last 7 (apparently Labour voters from Hackney and Islington are moving in as the houses are cheaper)

    Chingford
    1997 C+26
    2001 C+24
    2005 C+25
    2010 C+23
    2015 C+12
    2017 C+3

    If the demographic changes continue then seats like Newcastle-U-L and Chingford could flip in 2022 even if there is a similar overall result to 2017.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sean_F said:

    Have the Russians mentioned Finchley Road?
    LOL
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    From the BBC East of England website
    A commuter who sued a train firm over delays has received compensation after a court threatened to send in bailiffs to seize its assets.

    Guy sent a claim to Greater Anglia; they ignored him. He went to the Small Claims Court; they told GA there would be a hearning. they didn’t turn up so the Court found for him. They ignored it, so they sent in the bailiffs.

    Result. GA paid his claim plus, of course, costs. Someone who deals with complaints at GA deserves a kicking, or their manager does.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Head of British Armed forces on Sky said it was more than possible a set up.They cut him off quick
    Peter something was not a former head of the armed forces

    The other guy said it was without doubt the Syrians

    He mentioned lots of other occurrences which "Peter" really didn't want to engage on
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Bashar al-Assad must be met with a 'robust, united and steadfast response' following the suspected chemical weapons attack last week, France's ambassador to the UN has said.

    Francois Delattre told the Security Council the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons had 'reached a point of no return' and that France 'will shoulder its responsibility to end an intolerable threat to our collective security'.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,470
    So either bullshit from May and Trump or barefaced lying from the Russians. As the Russians have visited the site and are bound to be found out if they're lying-and as early as tomorrow-added to the painful truth that both the US and UK have form in dubious intelligence the odds are on egg on faces we'd rather not see it on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Big John

    Do you think we set up the Syria chemical attack as Russia now claims

    You know the one they claim never happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569

    I have been doing some experiments looking at seats over time. In the US, they assign states a partisan lean based on comparing the national vote to the vote in that state. So if the Reps win nationally by 2% but by 20% in Alaska then Alaska is R+18. I've done a similar exercise where I have picked Lab-Con seats, which have had minimal boundary changes and looked at them over time.

    First 3 seats in the big cities that have seen a massive swing to Lab:

    Year Edmonton Leeds NE B. Edgbaston
    1992 L+7 C+1 C+3
    1997 L+17 L+2 C+3
    2001 L+19 L+9 L+3
    2005 L+20 L+10 L+3
    2010 L+31 L+17 L+10
    2015 L+44 L+22 L+14
    2017 L+50 L+34 L+18

    Next 3 seats that have swung the other way

    Year Cannock Harlow Newcastle-U-Lyme
    1992 L+11 L+3 L+26
    1997 L+15 L+9 L+22
    2001 L+18 L+4 L+17
    2005 L+18 C+3 L+17
    2010 Even C+4 L+11
    2015 C+4 C+12 L+9
    2017 C+16 C+14 L+2

    There are also have a few, which have hardly changed. Calder Valley looks like a good national bellweather

    Year Bedford Calder Valley
    1992 Even
    1997 L+4 C+2
    2001 L+6 C+2
    2005 L+5 Even
    2010 L+4 C+5
    2015 L+5 C+1
    2017 L+4 L+1

    Another seat that looks interesting is Chingford, which was rock solid during the Blair years but has swung rapidly to the Labour in the last 7 (apparently Labour voters from Hackney and Islington are moving in as the houses are cheaper)

    Chingford
    1997 C+26
    2001 C+24
    2005 C+25
    2010 C+23
    2015 C+12
    2017 C+3

    If the demographic changes continue then seats like Newcastle-U-L and Chingford could flip in 2022 even if there is a similar overall result to 2017.

    Interesting. Thanks.

    Can you explain the win nationally bit though? e.g. Labour were -2% off winning in 2017 (give or take), so is the Edmonton +50 actually showing -2 + 52 = +50?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Roger said:

    So either bullshit from May and Trump or barefaced lying from the Russians. As the Russians have visited the site and are bound to be found out if they're lying-and as early as tomorrow-added to the painful truth that both the US and UK have form in dubious intelligence the odds are on egg on faces we'd rather not see it on.

    Really Roger

    Russia has no form?

    Please engage brain before typing
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    From the BBC East of England website
    A commuter who sued a train firm over delays has received compensation after a court threatened to send in bailiffs to seize its assets.

    Guy sent a claim to Greater Anglia; they ignored him. He went to the Small Claims Court; they told GA there would be a hearning. they didn’t turn up so the Court found for him. They ignored it, so they sent in the bailiffs.

    Result. GA paid his claim plus, of course, costs. Someone who deals with complaints at GA deserves a kicking, or their manager does.

    write to Abelio's owners,address,Tweede Kamer,Netherlands.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Roger said:

    So either bullshit from May and Trump or barefaced lying from the Russians. As the Russians have visited the site and are bound to be found out if they're lying-and as early as tomorrow-added to the painful truth that both the US and UK have form in dubious intelligence the odds are on egg on faces we'd rather not see it on.

    How odd that you didn't mention Macron.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,485
    Mr. Roger, the Russians have had control of the site for some time. Be interesting to see if they've left anything there.

    Got to say, I'm liking the BBC's coverage of Russia far more than Sky or ITV. Sky, around lunchtime, was leading with 'Corbyn laying into the Government over Syria [waiting for Donald Trump's instructions or suchlike]'. The BBC led with the situation and how it might develop rather than trotting out the useful idiot's spin lines.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018
    Will they actually give Jezza the real stuff? And if they do will they have to explain it REALLLLLY REALLLLLY SLOOOOOOWWWWLLYYY to him?

    Wouldn't surprise me if a few pages accidentally got missed out when they were doing the photocopying.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Floater said:

    Big John

    Do you think we set up the Syria chemical attack as Russia now claims

    You know the one they claim never happened.

    I do think it's possible.

    Why do you think this fmr head of British Armed Forces is wrong to raise the possibility
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    Jeremy Corbyn demands US and Russia 'stop blocking each other' at UN to end Syria deadlock

    https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-demands-us-and-russia-stop-blocking-each-other-at-un-to-end-syria-deadlock-11329083
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018

    I do think it's possible.

    Why do you think this fmr head of British Armed Forces is wrong to raise the possibility
    I believe you are on the wrong site, PrisonPlanet might be more for your tastes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Sean_F said:

    Have the Russians mentioned Finchley Road?
    Has Jeremy Hunt
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,284

    I have been doing some experiments looking at seats over time. In the US, they assign states a partisan lean based on comparing the national vote to the vote in that state. So if the Reps win nationally by 2% but by 20% in Alaska then Alaska is R+18. I've done a similar exercise where I have picked Lab-Con seats, which have had minimal boundary changes and looked at them over time.

    First 3 seats in the big cities that have seen a massive swing to Lab:

    Year Edmonton Leeds NE B. Edgbaston
    1992 L+7 C+1 C+3
    1997 L+17 L+2 C+3
    2001 L+19 L+9 L+3
    2005 L+20 L+10 L+3
    2010 L+31 L+17 L+10
    2015 L+44 L+22 L+14
    2017 L+50 L+34 L+18

    Next 3 seats that have swung the other way

    Year Cannock Harlow Newcastle-U-Lyme
    1992 L+11 L+3 L+26
    1997 L+15 L+9 L+22
    2001 L+18 L+4 L+17
    2005 L+18 C+3 L+17
    2010 Even C+4 L+11
    2015 C+4 C+12 L+9
    2017 C+16 C+14 L+2

    There are also have a few, which have hardly changed. Calder Valley looks like a good national bellweather

    Year Bedford Calder Valley
    1992 Even
    1997 L+4 C+2
    2001 L+6 C+2
    2005 L+5 Even
    2010 L+4 C+5
    2015 L+5 C+1
    2017 L+4 L+1

    Another seat that looks interesting is Chingford, which was rock solid during the Blair years but has swung rapidly to the Labour in the last 7 (apparently Labour voters from Hackney and Islington are moving in as the houses are cheaper)

    Chingford
    1997 C+26
    2001 C+24
    2005 C+25
    2010 C+23
    2015 C+12
    2017 C+3

    If the demographic changes continue then seats like Newcastle-U-L and Chingford could flip in 2022 even if there is a similar overall result to 2017.

    Great analysis! It would be great to see in spreadsheet form, thouhh as next election is on different boundaries possibly shortly obselete.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Corbyn will still agree with Moscow that MI6 did it, and that the British are just briefing him the “official version” to cover their own tracks.
  • How odd that you didn't mention Macron.
    Our Rog only hates the English-unless they live in London or the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018
    This is extremely worrying,

    Google loses 'right to be forgotten' case

    A businessman fighting for the "right to be forgotten" has won a UK High Court action against Google.

    The man, who has not been named due to reporting restrictions surrounding the case, wanted search results about a past crime he had committed removed from the search engine. The judge, Mr Justice Mark Warby, ruled in his favour on Friday.

    But he rejected a separate claim made by another businessman who had committed a more serious crime.

    The businessman who won his case was convicted 10 years ago of conspiring to intercept communications. He spent six months in jail.

    The other businessman, who lost his case, was convicted more than 10 years ago of conspiring to account falsely. He spent four years in jail.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43752344
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Foxy said:

    Great analysis! It would be great to see in spreadsheet form, thouhh as next election is on different boundaries possibly shortly obselete.
    Gareth it sounds as if you did this fairly manually.

    I will have a look if it could be done for all seats (boundary changes will be a problem though).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn will still agree with Moscow that MI6 did it, and that the British are just briefing him the “official version” to cover their own tracks.
    They could show him a video of Putin briefing the agent in his office, then the same agent appearing on cctv laying the nerve agent and Jezza would claim it was a mis-translation and the agent wasn't actually delivering the nerve agent, he was checking to see what the British secret agents had planted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,284
    FF43 said:

    Justified outrage from Iain Martin, although I think the target of his anger is wrong. It should be the government, not the Home Office. The issue is defined and historical. It requires legislation that I think should be simple. Government refusal to engage on this is stupid and callous.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/984785250885750784

    Outrageous.

    Enoch would have loved the "If they're Black, send them back" approach, but I would have thought that even this Tory government would be ashamed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,470
    edited April 2018
    Floater said:

    Really Roger

    Russia has no form?

    Please engage brain before typing
    Having engaged brain I ask myself in whose interest would it be to enrage the most powerful nations on earth for no gain whatsoever? And the uncomfortable truth is that the only gainers are the rebels who get the Western powers to bomb Assad.

    It's just as simple as that.

    Oh yes and they've also got form.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,284
    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn will still agree with Moscow that MI6 did it, and that the British are just briefing him the “official version” to cover their own tracks.
    Hang on!

    Jezza has merely been unconvinced who did it, not attributed it to Mi6!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018
    Corbyn STILL won't say he believes Assad is behind chemical atrocity and refuses to rule out Russian claims that the attack was STAGED

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5612915/Corbyn-wont-say-believes-Assad-chemical-atrocity.html

    It really is like something out of InfoWars. And just like the Trump / Russian bots, twitter is flooded with Corbyn outriders acting as useful idiots spreading all the conspiracy theories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This is extremely worrying,

    Google loses 'right to be forgotten' case

    A businessman fighting for the "right to be forgotten" has won a UK High Court action against Google.

    The man, who has not been named due to reporting restrictions surrounding the case, wanted search results about a past crime he had committed removed from the search engine. The judge, Mr Justice Mark Warby, ruled in his favour on Friday.

    But he rejected a separate claim made by another businessman who had committed a more serious crime.

    The businessman who won his case was convicted 10 years ago of conspiring to intercept communications. He spent six months in jail.

    The other businessman, who lost his case, was convicted more than 10 years ago of conspiring to account falsely. He spent four years in jail.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43752344

    Just been reading about this one, there’s older reports on the case around from before the reporting restrictions. The key to the successful appeal is that his conviction is legally spent under the rehabilitation of offenders act, whereas that doesn’t apply to the more serious conviction. Quite difficult to work out where to draw the line in an age of ubiquitous availability of information, don’t envy those judges and policy makers charged with making sense of it all.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Foxy said:

    Outrageous.

    Enoch would have loved the "If they're Black, send them back" approach, but I would have thought that even this Tory government would be ashamed.
    This is a complete f*** up.

    Like Mr Corbyn on Syria, we are effectively holding people to an evidential - not a legal - status they can't hope to attain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    Corbyn STILL won't say he believes Assad is behind chemical atrocity and refuses to rule out Russian claims that the attack was STAGED

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5612915/Corbyn-wont-say-believes-Assad-chemical-atrocity.html

    It really is like something out of InfoWars.

    No doubt he thinks Mossad did it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Foxy said:

    Hang on!

    Jezza has merely been unconvinced who did it, not attributed it to Mi6!

    I didn’t say Jeremy had said it was the British, I said that Moscow said it was the British - and that Jeremy has a habit of agreeing with Moscow...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited April 2018
    Sean_F said:

    No doubt he thinks Mossad did it.
    Its the deep state, global elite, bilderberg, Illuminati....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Its the deep state, global elite, bilderberg, Illuminati....

    Now that's just silly.

    Everyone knows it was the lizards.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    This is a complete f*** up.

    Like Mr Corbyn on Syria, we are effectively holding people to an evidential - not a legal - status they can't hope to attain.
    If you've been in the country a decade and there's no evidence you came illegally, you should automatically be given a UK passport.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited April 2018
    Foxy said:

    Hang on!

    Jezza has merely been unconvinced who did it, not attributed it to Mi6!

    Corbyn will never be convinced of any crimes of Russia and her allies as long as the Kremlin does not admit to it.

    On the other hand, he will declare UK politiicans war criminals based on thin evidence.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    RoyalBlue said:

    WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN
    It's the thinking that's the hard bit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    A day full of ironies. Labour adamant we shouldn't be going in to Syria to protest the chemical weapons attack, when their policy on promoting diesel vehicles released such a tonnage of chemicals into our ow atmosphere that it makes the death toll in Syria look puny.

    And the same Jew-hating Party getting all excited about the fiftieth anniversary of Powell's "Rivers of Blood" speech....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    A day full of ironies. Labour adamant we shouldn't be going in to Syria to protest the chemical weapons attack, when their policy on promoting diesel vehicles released such a tonnage of chemicals into our ow atmosphere that it makes the death toll in Syria look puny.

    And the same Jew-hating Party getting all excited about the fiftieth anniversary of Powell's "Rivers of Blood" speech....
    Windrush/recent immigrants = weak/need saving
    Jews = strong/oppressors of the people.
  • Interesting. Thanks.

    Can you explain the win nationally bit though? e.g. Labour were -2% off winning in 2017 (give or take), so is the Edmonton +50 actually showing -2 + 52 = +50?
    Labour were 48% ahead of Con in Edmonton and 2% behind nationally so Edmonton is 50 percentage points more Labour than the nation
  • Foxy said:

    Great analysis! It would be great to see in spreadsheet form, thouhh as next election is on different boundaries possibly shortly obselete.
    I'm still experimenting at the moment. It might be possible to take the boundary changes into account. For example, Newcastle-U-L is currently L+2. The boundary changes are expected to flip it to Con and make it C+3. If demographic change continues at the same rate then that would make it C+8 by 2022. So In that case the Cons could win the seat even if they were 7 points behind nationally.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Roger said:

    So either bullshit from May and Trump or barefaced lying from the Russians. As the Russians have visited the site and are bound to be found out if they're lying-and as early as tomorrow-added to the painful truth that both the US and UK have form in dubious intelligence the odds are on egg on faces we'd rather not see it on.

    I hope for your sake that you are making a very poor joke.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Elliot said:

    Corbyn will never be convinced of any crimes of Russia and her allies as long as the Kremlin does not admit to it.

    On the other hand, he will declare UK politiicans war criminals based on thin evidence.
    Make the attendance at the 2018 World Cup of the following [x] signatories conditional upon Russia admitting unambiguous responsibility for

    a) the Novichok poisoning in Salisbury and

    b) complicity with the Assad regime in chemical weapons attacks in Syria....

    See which way Corbyn goes then.
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