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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing
St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab)
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F1: having a look at potential qualifying bets but may be a little while due to markets warming up.
Edited extra bit: and the Vanilla icons are back. Huzzah!
Interesting context
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/984708166058377217?s=20
Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
I reckon you’d have more chance of winning this time than moi.
Though a vote for Labour in Bassetlaw is a vote for Brexit
I was surprised that Labour have so many more seats in this cycle than the Tories. I am used to the Tories being fairly dominant in local government in England. They really did very well in these seats in 2014. One wonders how much room there is for improvement. My gut feel is that 200 net is quite a tough ask for Labour.
Are we confident that UKIP will simply not be standing in these elections? Presumably some of their councillors will be standing as independents, as in Thurrock.
Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.
While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
Still doesn’t excuse Enoch Powell.
I might do a thread on Powell this weekend.
That'd get a very smart, able & young candidate.
Most of the seats up in council by elections, including the Chichester one the LDs won last night, were last up in 2015 when the Tories comfortably won most votes and seats.
So it is not impossible there could even be a small swing to the Tories outside of London in May but next May there is likely to be a significant swing to Labour and the LDs
One friend of mine who used to work for NCC actually gave it as his opinion that the only way to resolve the situation they're in is to abolish the council, make the entire workforce redundant and start again from scratch.
This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017
(Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)
Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.
The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.
Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.
The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.
Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.
A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.
"To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy
I see that the Lib Dems got a NEV of 11% last time. They will do well to match that. Labour was 1% ahead of the Tories. I find it a little surprising, given current polling suggests a Tory lead of approximately 3%, that almost all of the councils to watch (there is a button to press through to them, I was being stupid) are potential Labour gains off the Tories. But the dispersion of UKIP makes such small swings largely irrelevant.
Powell's ridiculous 'Tiber, foaming with much blood' hyperbole was proved conclusively wrong, and he deserves the contempt with which many remember him. Highly intelligent, but deeply stupid is probably a fair description.
But I do like your riposte
I'd be surprised if May resigns on the back of this "Bad night for the Toaariees".
The by election was caused by the MP resigning her council seat and as the general election proved voters do not like unnecessary elections
Tough to extrapolate from 3 small local elections though.
Can't find it now..... Good job I saved it as a Word document all those years ago.
And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
The irony is that yards from where Powell made his speech is the JLR factory owned by Indians, which is responsible for so many jobs in that area. So Powell was right, the black man does have the whip hand.
I'll also mention that Powell is sub human Mark Reckless scum, plus I'll also mention that Powell was responsible for ruining the lives of more children than an average paedophile.
As was stated in the podcast the other day, Labour could hoover up a lost of extra seats without it having a big impact on Council control. Conservative representation on Councils they either controlled or were close to control in the not-too-distant past (places like Enfield, Redbridge, Brent, Merton) could be sharply reduced with more Councils going 100% Labour.
That will be ignored by the pro-Conservative spinners who will concentrate on Councils retained (especially if Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster are held or Havering goes to majority Conservative control).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/if-a-new-party-is-to-fly-it-must-pass-six-tests-wrgk93t9j?CMP=Sprkr-_-Editorial-_-thetimes-_-Unspecified-_-TWITTER
You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198
Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.
Taking your point I agree. Its a policy that would benefit a minority considerably at the cost of the majority. Just as it does with pensioners.
Pretty much summed up my thinking on new parties at the moment.
Edit: source http://www.holiday-weather.com/canterbury_gb/averages/
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcqfkbwyz (picked for being the most central location in England I could see).
However, in the warmer months - May, June, July and August - because the air is warmer and the ground is harder the moisture tends to dry more quickly.
(Incidentally of course August is traditionally both the wettest month and the one with the greatest amount of sunshine.)
"(incidentally of course August is traditionally both the wettest month and the one with the greatest amount of sunshine.)"
I've had solar panels for the last decade, and it gives a good measure of the sunshine.in the NW of England. Although June should be the sunniest month, May often is, and April isn't far behind. August is usually disappointing. Obviously daylight length is more important than temperature.
People can be paradoxical. They are good friends with their immigrant neighbours but still think the country is overrun by them.
Several regular posters who are seeing what they want to see should know better.
The system by which violent criminals are being released is really not fit for purpose.
May, Boris, May, Boris, May, Boris, May, Boris...
That's a net loss of four for the Conservatives, a net gain of seven for the Lib Dems, a net loss of three for Others, and Labour unchanged.
The majority are seats last contested in 2015, and 2017, both very good years for the Conservatives, with a few from 2016, when Conservatives and Labour were level. None are from 2014, due to the six month rule.
Ms Osamor told The House magazine: 'I don't particularly think it should be him. Not because I have an issue with the royal family. I just don't think it should be him.
'I don't really know what he's been up to of late. He's not been that vocal on issues.
'But we just need someone who's level-headed, someone people respect but also someone who thinks outside the box.
It is at times like this that we particularly miss Mark Senior and his analysis.
On a pro-rata basis it looks like the cost might be double the figure suggested, but still not much for a measure likely to be very popular.
Russian foreign minister has claimed the suspected chemical attack in Douma last weekend was fabricated with the help of an unnamed foreign state actor.
Speaking to reporters in Moscow, he said that 'intelligence agencies of a state that is now striving to spearhead a Russo-phobic campaign were involved in that fabrication'.
He confirmed Russian experts had been to the city of Douma and found no proof that chemical weapons had been used.