politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

In 2003 there were 204 homicides in London, which is about the same rate as this year, but I don't remember it being a big news issue at the time for whatever reasons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London

I don't think its a big news issue at the moment except maybe to those in London or those trying to use it as a political football.

It was the norm then, as well. We've had several years of unusually few murders in London, so reverting to the mean seems shocking.

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Theuniondivvie said:

Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

At least the PP haven't fallen below 20% yet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Of course we're not going back to anything like we have now. We're going to join the Euro.

By the way, it's interesting that you say "on the other side of the Channel" when we will obviously be much closer to the EU than that given the 300-mile land border.

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

I thought he had not used any government funds though

I think that's the case and embarassingly I believe there's footage of Rajoy saying as much. Hopefully the German courts will agree.

MarqueeMark said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"

Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Of course we're not going back to anything like we have now. We're going to join the Euro.

r.

Not a chance.

brendan16 said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/981950073197166593

Will Arlene use her Irish citizenship - as someone born in the 32 counties - to emigrate to the EU?

If you look at the Irish passport you wouldn't even think Northern Ireland existed.

When the Euro coins first came out, Norway was left off the map of Europe as it was outside the EU.

Shame it made Sweden and Finland look like a cock and balls, but you can't win 'em all.

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

MarqueeMark said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"

Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?

Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...

How does extending the scope of your own internal market limit external trade? You wouldn't argue that Scottish independence was about trading with the world rather than just part of the British Isles, would you?

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

MarqueeMark said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"

Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?

Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...

And if we get some quick trade deals in the next few years, rejoining the EU would necessitate ripping them up. Would we want to upset the likes of Aus, NZ, Singapore or even the US?

Betting post if you're punting on the local elections - analysis (by a centrist member who is not a Corbyn fan, but this is a factual piece) of where Labour's share in by-elections does best and worst:

https://labourlist.org/2018/04/luke-akehurst-ahead-of-the-local-elections-labour-is-in-a-strong-position/

brendan16 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Hungary; Fidesz 45 (-4) MSZP 19 (+1) Jobbik 20 (+3) LMP 7 (-1)

That's approximately UKIP, Labour, the BNP, and the Greens respectively.

Changes on three weeks ago.

Looks like a landslide for Orban then with Jobbik as the official opposition.

In seats:

Fidesz 153 (+20)
MSZP 21 (-17 - old Unity party)
Jobbi 21 (-2)
LMP 6 (+1)
DK 5 (+5)

Orban's supermajority restored.


(This does assume the same list as consistency votes.)

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

You think being in favour of the EU is left wing?

Yes, ultimately the EU is collectivism. That's a very left wing idea.

Nonsense. The EU is a check on the inherent collectivism of nationalism.

The EU is a check on nothing. It is a collectivist organisation which wants to pool the power of independent nations into something they hope will be more than the sum of the individuals.

Nations are not individuals but collectives.

Nation states hold power on an individual basis. For example, the US can go to war, California can't.

Depends if Nevada continues to steal our water or not

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

MarqueeMark said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"

Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?

Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...

And if we get some quick trade deals in the next few years, rejoining the EU would necessitate ripping them up. Would we want to upset the likes of Aus, NZ, Singapore or even the US?

* Looks at current order book*

Rip up those deals. There's more trade to be had in EU.

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Brilliant goal by Ramsey. Ronaldoesque.

RoyalBlue said:

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Let me be honest - I'm no friend of the Conservative Party but traditionally Conservative leaders have been prepared to act in the national interest rather than out of some ideological conception.

I voted to LEAVE and I think and believe we will be fine beyond the confines of EU membership. However, I'm prepared to recognise I might be wrong and for whatever reason be it circumstance or incompetence the current or a future Government might find itself looking at a real crisis the only solution to which might be to seek to re-establish the economic and political relationship with the EU.

IF that happens I would expect the Prime Minister of the day to do whatever it takes to protect the economic interests of the UK and if that means returning us to the EU so be it.

I also accept that IF at a future election a Party seeking to re-negotiate our return to the EU wins a majority the Prime Minister will have to be given a fair opportunity to seek favourable terms for our re-accession and put those to the electorate in a referendum.

The door isn't shut and locked for all time.

Gardenwalker said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Yeh, but they’re not telling you because you’re a known Brexit bore.

Most people are simply not very political; this is something that too many here often forget.

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

A big part of the reason so much of the 'establishment' was pro-Remain is because EU membership was the status quo. Lobbyists, like most people, are typically more worried about losing what they have than gaining what they could have. Come 2025 or 2030, there will be plenty of people benefitting from arrangements outside the EU and the Outers will benefit from the status quo bias.

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.

Polling? We're believing that again are we?

And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.

You have the decency to lie about it now.

I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.

You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.

Polling? We're believing that again are we?

And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.

You have the decency to lie about it now.

I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.

No need to lie; it didn't happen.

Boris Johnson certainly did.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/boris-johnson-the-eu-wants-a-superstate-just-as-hitler-did/

If I recall correctly you drew an analogy between Dunkirk and Brexit.

AlastairMeeks said:

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.

If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.

If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.

Fidesz does, however, perform worse than polling.

2014: polled 48%, received 45% (party list)
2010: polled 59%, received 53% (party list).

The Hungarian system is not particularly susceptible to tactical voting, much less where Fidesz enters almost every constituency with 40% of the vote (so you would need to unite almost everyone else). Also voting for a smaller party might help Fidesz; if you fail to win the constituency, and the smaller party gets less than 5%, then its party list vote is ignored.

The only "safe" way to vote tactically is to vote Jobbik or MSZP - and I am quite sure Alastair's circle are not the Jobbik type...

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.

Polling? We're believing that again are we?

And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.

You have the decency to lie about it now.

I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.

You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.

Still preferring anecdote over polling, I see. Not surprising from a man who likens the EU to Nazi Germany and now lies about it.

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.

If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.

He could, or he could just repeat ‘Xenophobic lies!’ to himself 100 times.

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.

Do you really think that a marginal reduction in sales of Ferrero Rocher is the unmitigated triumph for British diplomacy that is being presented?

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.

This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.

Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.

Polling? We're believing that again are we?

And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.

You have the decency to lie about it now.

I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.

You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.

I think it's the more idealistic British Europeans in their 40s, 50s and 60s who are most heartbroken over the EU referendum result; the ones who were pursuing that dream from the late 80s to the mid noughties when they came of age politically and Europe looked like the bright new future.

I think those aged 16-30 are more transactional and will largely forget it if the post-Brexit deal provides global opportunities for them, without throwing up obstacles.

stodge said:

RoyalBlue said:

Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

Let me be honest - I'm no friend of the Conservative Party but traditionally Conservative leaders have been prepared to act in the national interest rather than out of some ideological conception.

I voted to LEAVE and I think and believe we will be fine beyond the confines of EU membership. However, I'm prepared to recognise I might be wrong and for whatever reason be it circumstance or incompetence the current or a future Government might find itself looking at a real crisis the only solution to which might be to seek to re-establish the economic and political relationship with the EU.

IF that happens I would expect the Prime Minister of the day to do whatever it takes to protect the economic interests of the UK and if that means returning us to the EU so be it.

I also accept that IF at a future election a Party seeking to re-negotiate our return to the EU wins a majority the Prime Minister will have to be given a fair opportunity to seek favourable terms for our re-accession and put those to the electorate in a referendum.

The door isn't shut and locked for all time.

There are no final victories in politics.

ydoethur said:

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

Yeah, there's a few issues

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!

Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.

One of the most sensible things said all day.

None of us know.

Interesting thread:
https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676600117821440
https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676710608429056

Some random on twitter says things you like to read. What's new?

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.

We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.

We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.

Ishmael_Z said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!

Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.

I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.

Sick burn.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.

We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.

Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.

Post-Brexit we won't be in the European Council meetings...

Those are just summits of the Prime Ministers of the EU28, together with an EU chair, which we're already largely excluded from most of it as it is. They're not much different from the G8 or G20.

Post Brexit, we will continue to lobby each bilaterally, and a forum for us to come together in the same room to discuss security, defence and foreign affairs will be established. It just won't be called the European Council

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!

Because your comment here has the same truthfulness as some of Joseph Goebbels more imaginative efforts?

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

Yeah, there's a few issues

All day I've been unable to type in my username and password (they are stored but every few weeks it demands they are re-entered).

The box to type them into simply would not load.

It has now.

HEADLINE - Moggy Euthanized At Porton Down

Next Con Leader bettors in turmoil ....

https://twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/981988257482399744
https://twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/981988736786366464

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.

We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.

We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.

Well, unfortunately for you, a majority of people decided they didn't like it two years ago, and the policy of HMG is to disintegrate from the EU, and diverge, in a number of areas.

Farage and Banks are backing Putin and Russia.

I am shocked. SHOCKED.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.

We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.

We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.

Current draft EU legislation suggests restricting the import of cultural goods (including books) to stop terror funding. Because, from the best of my understanding, the EU doesn't have a clue how the market in cultural goods actually works.

You can dream about your ademocratic integration with fools like that. I'll stick with democracy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage and Banks are backing Putin and Russia.

I am shocked. SHOCKED.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

Ah, Boris Yeltsin.

Happy days...
https://youtu.be/v9YnDirqwT4