politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as str

Richard_Tyndall said:

The correct number was £288 million a week. Such a large number that I always wondered why Leave chose to go with the £350 million. They could have gone with the real number and it would still have had the same impact without any of the consequences of being labelled dishonest

They did that because it left the Remain side with the dilemma of either accepting the nonsense figure, or disputing it with the weak counter-argument that 'it's only £288m a week' (and thus drawing attention to it even more), either of which would merely serve to support Vote Leave's case.

It was a deliberately dishonest and cynical, but effective, tactic. Dominic Cummings, take a bow.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dear oh dear. I called it yesterday.

But apparently I don’t understand how the world works.

Journalists don't seem to (want to!) understand how science works, and vice versa. Molecules don't have "MADE IN RUSSIA" stamped on their covalent bonds, and the Porton Down guy hasn't been given any training on how to communicate a slightly complicated message.

Yesterday on Twitter was profoundly depressing. As ever

Nah. It was Boris and the FCO saying Porton Down had confirmed it was Russia now they are deleting all evidence of them saying that.

This is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Blair and Campbell.

As effective as that? Quite a step up.

But it is still the case that Porton Down identified the poison as a) a novichok nerve agent that b) required a degree of manufacturing complexity that only a state player could devise. Over to you MI6 - any body else making novichoks?

Boris and the FCO have given succour to Russia, Putin, and the Corbynites, Lord Carrington resigned over less.

Breaking - Germany and the EU back the UK position

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

The Russians doing their usual thing of lying 100% of the time, and taking advantage of everyone else when they tell the truth, messy as it usually is.

And, that's enough. There are enough people out there willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, who like to think they're savvy because they distrust Western officialdom.

If Russia was in the dock, then the burden of proof is beyond all reasonable doubt. That there are Useful Idiots saying we have to prove beyond all unreasonable doubt is being exploited by the people who did this.

If Russia was in the dock, there would undoubtedly be a conviction - unless the CPS was unfortunate enough to have Corbyn and TSE on the jury. In which case, the judge would get a majority verdict.

(As an aside, had lunch on Monday with somebody who is, let us say, part of the Serrated Edge of the Establishment. He was in absolutely no doubt. None at all. It was Russia.)

Err I've said it was Russia, and I'd vote to convict.

I'm just saying Boris and the FCO have given Russia an opportunity to attack the UK and weaken the case.

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

Blue_rog said:

O/T

I really hope these charges are dropped and the guy in question gets a community award!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/04/suspected-burglar-dies-tussle-pensioner-78/

Couldn't agree more.

No jury is going to convict if the story is even half true. Nonetheless, I can see why the Police have to take a fatal stabbing so seriously, Albeit one rather different to the usual teenage gangsters.

It’s one of those occasionally crappy cases which come up. There’s a dead man who has a family, and whatever the circumstances the police are bound to investigate what appears to be a homicide.

If the facts are as described, he’ll be charged with manslaughter and the Crown in an ideal world will send a lawyer to the Magistrate and tell him they intend to offer no evidence, so he’ll be found not guilty the same day. There’s no way anyone would want to put the case in front of a jury.

"Reasonable force" in my opinion.

Of course, but is that a decision the CPS can make on their own?

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

Blue_rog said:

O/T

I really hope these charges are dropped and the guy in question gets a community award!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/04/suspected-burglar-dies-tussle-pensioner-78/

Couldn't agree more.

No jury is going to convict if the story is even half true. Nonetheless, I can see why the Police have to take a fatal stabbing so seriously, Albeit one rather different to the usual teenage gangsters.

It’s one of those occasionally crappy cases which come up. There’s a dead man who has a family, and whatever the circumstances the police are bound to investigate what appears to be a homicide.

If the facts are as described, he’ll be charged with manslaughter and the Crown in an ideal world will send a lawyer to the Magistrate and tell him they intend to offer no evidence, so he’ll be found not guilty the same day. There’s no way anyone would want to put the case in front of a jury.

"Reasonable force" in my opinion.

Of course, but is that a decision the CPS can make on their own?

Surely they have to take into account the likelihood of a prosecution succeeding? And of putting the elderly accused through the trauma of giving evidence.

DavidL said:

So we have a nerve agent which is a part of a family of nerve agents developed in Russia which, to our knowledge, no one else has, used in an English street on a Russian double agent when with his Russian daughter and it is a story that Porton Down could not identify the origin of the actual molecules?

I mean, really? That's a story? When Porton Down did its job and identified this as Novichok the finger was pointed squarely at Russia. It still is. Absolutely nothing has changed other than some fairly incriminating statements about how residing in the UK is not particularly good for Russian's health.

Pity they had to over egg the pudding and lie so much, instead of choosing their words carefully, but what do you expect when it isabsolute balloons like Boris mouthing off.

There's something really wrong at the heart of West Ham.

https://twitter.com/NPLH_ZINE/status/981478817150758912

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dear oh dear. I called it yesterday.

But apparently I don’t understand how the world works.

Journalists don't seem to (want to!) understand how science works, and vice versa. Molecules don't have "MADE IN RUSSIA" stamped on their covalent bonds, and the Porton Down guy hasn't been given any training on how to communicate a slightly complicated message.

Yesterday on Twitter was profoundly depressing. As ever

Nah. It was Boris and the FCO saying Porton Down had confirmed it was Russia now they are deleting all evidence of them saying that.

This is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Blair and Campbell.

As effective as that? Quite a step up.

But it is still the case that Porton Down identified the poison as a) a novichok nerve agent that b) required a degree of manufacturing complexity that only a state player could devise. Over to you MI6 - any body else making novichoks?

Boris and the FCO have given succour to Russia, Putin, and the Corbynites, Lord Carrington resigned over less.

Admittedly, rushing so quickly to condemn the Russians quite so openly, seems just risky politics and something out of May's character.... This really has the potential to spectacularly blow up in May's face.....

Corbyn was not ruling out Russia, or pro Putin...he was just being prudent. Again, his judgement on all things foreign seems to be one of his strengths....

Nobody has come up with any remotely plausible alternative. That is not prudence - that is giving Putin a get out of jail card.

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dear oh dear. I called it yesterday.

But apparently I don’t understand how the world works.

Journalists don't seem to (want to!) understand how science works, and vice versa. Molecules don't have "MADE IN RUSSIA" stamped on their covalent bonds, and the Porton Down guy hasn't been given any training on how to communicate a slightly complicated message.

Yesterday on Twitter was profoundly depressing. As ever

Nah. It was Boris and the FCO saying Porton Down had confirmed it was Russia now they are deleting all evidence of them saying that.

This is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Blair and Campbell.

As effective as that? Quite a step up.

But it is still the case that Porton Down identified the poison as a) a novichok nerve agent that b) required a degree of manufacturing complexity that only a state player could devise. Over to you MI6 - any body else making novichoks?

Boris and the FCO have given succour to Russia, Putin, and the Corbynites, Lord Carrington resigned over less.

Admittedly, rushing so quickly to condemn the Russians quite so openly, seems just risky politics and something out of May's character.... This really has the potential to spectacularly blow up in May's face.....

Corbyn was not ruling out Russia, or pro Putin...he was just being prudent. Again, his judgement on all things foreign seems to be one of his strengths....

Desperation

Nigelb said:

Quite - although no doubt there is additional evidence which is not yet public.

In terms of what is public, it goes way beyond balance of probability, but perhaps falls very slightly short of beyond a reasonable doubt ?

Given Russia's reaction after the incident, there can be no reasonable doubt even on the public information.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

The Russians doing their usual thing of lying 100% of the time, and taking advantage of everyone else when they tell the truth, messy as it usually is.

And, that's enough. There are enough people out there willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, who like to think they're savvy because they distrust Western officialdom.

If Russia was in the dock, then the burden of proof is beyond all reasonable doubt. That there are Useful Idiots saying we have to prove beyond all unreasonable doubt is being exploited by the people who did this.

If Russia was in the dock, there would undoubtedly be a conviction - unless the CPS was unfortunate enough to have Corbyn and TSE on the jury. In which case, the judge would get a majority verdict.

(As an aside, had lunch on Monday with somebody who is, let us say, part of the Serrated Edge of the Establishment. He was in absolutely no doubt. None at all. It was Russia.)

Err I've said it was Russia, and I'd vote to convict.

I'm just saying Boris and the FCO have given Russia an opportunity to attack the UK and weaken the case.

Quite - although no doubt there is additional evidence which is not yet public.

In terms of what is public, it goes way beyond balance of probability, but perhaps falls very slightly short of beyond a reasonable doubt ?

that's the problem.....if there is even a seed of doubt, the International coalition may fracture..a tweet from you know who, a comment here, a comment there...and May's left looking idiotic....

It just struck me as risky politics to go all gungho thumping that tub and rattling that sabre....at this moment she looks particularly exposed to some serious political damage that is out of her control...we are one misjudgement away from Rees Mogg, god help us....

NickPalmer said:

Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.

They don't hate everything about Britain, just the monarchy, the army, the navy, the RAF, the police, the court system, the City, big business, small traders, farmers, homeowners, the middle classes, successful schools, the best universities, the countryside, and most of our cultural heritage.

tyson said:

@Cyclefree...come on..you sound like a parody of seanT by saying Corbyn hates everything about Britain.....

The left has as much claim on patriotism as the right...it's just expressed in a different way...and granted, both at their extremes can be quite ugly.

Corbyn is obviously on the spectrum, and you are right about his lack of emotional intelligence.. His fascination in trains and drain covers kind of exposes that.

But if he ever got to Govt...there are checks and balances, and constraints and compromises that he would have to make. Since, even at his most extreme, he is only really advocating for a policy shift to the kind of centric, Christian/ Social Democratic consensus they have in Germany. we will not become Venuzuala...

Ah but there is no seats on those trains. He told us so and he is an honourable man.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

Blue_rog said:

O/T

I really hope these charges are dropped and the guy in question gets a community award!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/04/suspected-burglar-dies-tussle-pensioner-78/

Couldn't agree more.

No jury is going to convict if the story is even half true. Nonetheless, I can see why the Police have to take a fatal stabbing so seriously, Albeit one rather different to the usual teenage gangsters.

It’s one of those occasionally crappy cases which come up. There’s a dead man who has a family, and whatever the circumstances the police are bound to investigate what appears to be a homicide.

If the facts are as described, he’ll be charged with manslaughter and the Crown in an ideal world will send a lawyer to the Magistrate and tell him they intend to offer no evidence, so he’ll be found not guilty the same day. There’s no way anyone would want to put the case in front of a jury.

"Reasonable force" in my opinion.

Of course, but is that a decision the CPS can make on their own?

Yes - they can say 'not in the public interest to bring charges'.

How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Quite - although no doubt there is additional evidence which is not yet public.

In terms of what is public, it goes way beyond balance of probability, but perhaps falls very slightly short of beyond a reasonable doubt ?

Given Russia's reaction after the incident, there can be no reasonable doubt even on the public information.

If it wasn’t Russia, why are they not going completely mad that someone attempted to murder one of their citizens, an innocent young lady, on British soil?

Instead they’re saying how unfortunate it is that Russian traitors have a habit of getting into “accidents” in Britain. Nudge nudge, wink wink...

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

So we have a nerve agent which is a part of a family of nerve agents developed in Russia which, to our knowledge, no one else has, used in an English street on a Russian double agent when with his Russian daughter and it is a story that Porton Down could not identify the origin of the actual molecules?

I mean, really? That's a story? When Porton Down did its job and identified this as Novichok the finger was pointed squarely at Russia. It still is. Absolutely nothing has changed other than some fairly incriminating statements about how residing in the UK is not particularly good for Russian's health.

Pity they had to over egg the pudding and lie so much, instead of choosing their words carefully, but what do you expect when it isabsolute balloons like Boris mouthing off.

What they said was that it was highly probable that Russia was to blame. All of the NATO and EU countries seem to agree.

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...

No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.

still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.

Decorators will be in soon
PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.

She tried pushing another one before the general election and lost almost half her seats as a result

Recent events make it less rather than more likely that Jeremy Corbyn will step down this year. He will want to make sure that he passes on the baton to someone he approves of ideologically. The more he is under a cloud, the less certain that is.

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

So British is he that he seems to hate everything about Britain. Sure he makes jam and has an allotment and is probably fun to chat to in the pub. My son has met him and had a selfie with him and said he was pleasant and polite. But so what? What he gets inspiration from - the Far Left - has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried.

Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.

For that matter, if we want to be provocative, capitalism has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried, and continues to do so. Obviously it doesn't involve large-scale slaughter as Stalinism did, but it's perfectly reasonable for people to try to find alternatives to capitalism that don't involve mass murder, without thereby being suspected of disliking Britain. Indeed, if we continue on a path of laagering large sections of the population in a hopeless situation with stagnant wages, debt and no prospect of this capital that they hear about, we should not expect a happy outcome for Britain. Something which thoughtful Conservatives actually accept.

I agree with the second part of this. Capitalism needs to work for people. If it doesn't it is no surprise if people look for alternatives.

But the alternatives which Corbyn has praised for lifting people out of poverty (those that weren't murdered or starved) - including, most recently, on the Marr programme - Mao's China, have involved mass murder. Corbyn should know this and yet he smirked and put it forward as an example and people think that this is OK.

And he has praised Venezuela where people are starving and dying. And his criticisms of Soviet Russia do not centre on the millions slaughtered.

I mean, come off it! Those systems are not an alternative to capitalism, not in any sane world. They are a dystopia and the fact that we have people who like Corbyn and his mini-me Milne think that Soviet Russia and Cuba (because they had a health service - as if that was something unheard of in any other country) are something to be admired and emulated proves how historically and morally stupid they are.

I mean, come off it! The radical tradition Foxy describes is patriotic and British and much to be admired. Marxism / Leninism / Maoism / Stalinism aren't.

Re: DSTL analysis. The Novichok agent itself would be identical whatever source it came from. What would almost certainly vary from laboratory to laboratory is the profile of impurities. The main Novichok don't look to me to be too complex, probably around a 4 step manufacture from off the shelf compounds, with perhaps half a dozen mainstream chemical routes of manufacture available (and some exotic ones), and variables such as reaction conditions, solvent systems, purification methods all of which will affect the impurity profile. Batch to batch will vary, but samples created in the same labs using the same methods will, on average, be more alike than those made under different conditions.

So the questions of attribution at a scientific level would be, have they ever analysed verified Russian samples or have second hand analytical results, do they know anything of the reaction routes and conditions used in Russia and can test the sorts of side reactions that might occur, do they have research exemples or analysis results from other labs (US methods, UK methods) to rule out samples from elsewhere.

None of this will come to a hard and fast answer, and all interrelates with intelligence on the Russian programme, which as I understand it mainly comes from the memory of scientists that have left Russia, and not so much from original lab books or samples. So, we are more likely to be able to rule out other sources than rule in Russia from the science alone.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

Blue_rog said:

O/T

I really hope these charges are dropped and the guy in question gets a community award!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/04/suspected-burglar-dies-tussle-pensioner-78/

Couldn't agree more.

No jury is going to convict if the story is even half true. Nonetheless, I can see why the Police have to take a fatal stabbing so seriously, Albeit one rather different to the usual teenage gangsters.

It’s one of those occasionally crappy cases which come up. There’s a dead man who has a family, and whatever the circumstances the police are bound to investigate what appears to be a homicide.

If the facts are as described, he’ll be charged with manslaughter and the Crown in an ideal world will send a lawyer to the Magistrate and tell him they intend to offer no evidence, so he’ll be found not guilty the same day. There’s no way anyone would want to put the case in front of a jury.

"Reasonable force" in my opinion.

Of course, but is that a decision the CPS can make on their own?

Yes - they can say 'not in the public interest to bring charges'.

I do not think that is the right finding.

The test is twofold. First it asks: "is there sufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction against each suspect on each charge"?

The answer to that is, if this story is how we think, at best borderline.

It is only the second test which is about the public interest, and effectively assumes that a crime has indeed been committed because the CPS do not look at the likelihood of conviction again. It asks:

a. How serious is the offence committed?
b. What is the level of culpability of the suspect?
c. What are the circumstances of and the harm caused to the victim?
d. Was the suspect under the age of 18 at the time of the offence?
e. What is the impact on the community?
f. Is prosecution a proportionate response?
g. Do sources of information require protecting?

It is not clear to me, on those factors, that the case would fail to meet the public interest test. Rather, it seems much more likely to fall at the first of the two.

https://www.cps.gov.uk/publication/full-code-test

Sure, I was answering the question about the discretion of the CPS. You're right that the case might not meet the first set of criteria.

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

So British is he that he seems to hate everything about Britain. Sure he makes jam and has an allotment and is probably fun to chat to in the pub. My son has met him and had a selfie with him and said he was pleasant and polite. But so what? What he gets inspiration from - the Far Left - has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried.

Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.

For that matter, if we want to be provocative, capitalism has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried, and continues to do so. Obviously it doesn't involve large-scale slaughter as Stalinism did, but it's perfectly reasonable for people to try to find alternatives to capitalism that don't involve mass murder, without thereby being suspected of disliking Britain. Indeed, if we continue on a path of laagering large sections of the population in a hopeless situation with stagnant wages, debt and no prospect of this capital that they hear about, we should not expect a happy outcome for Britain. Something which thoughtful Conservatives actually accept.

I agree with the second part of this. Capitalism needs to work for people. If it doesn't it is no surprise if people look for alternatives.

But the alternatives which Corbyn has praised for lifting people out of poverty (those that weren't murdered or starved) - including, most recently, on the Marr programme - Mao's China, have involved mass murder. Corbyn should know this and yet he smirked and put it forward as an example and people think that this is OK.

And he has praised Venezuela where people are starving and dying. And his criticisms of Soviet Russia do not centre on the millions slaughtered.

I mean, come off it! Those systems are not an alternative to capitalism, not in any sane world. They are a dystopia and the fact that we have people who like Corbyn and his mini-me Milne think that Soviet Russia and Cuba (because they had a health service - as if that was something unheard of in any other country) are something to be admired and emulated proves how historically and morally stupid they are.

I mean, come off it! The radical tradition Foxy describes is patriotic and British and much to be admired. Marxism / Leninism / Maoism / Stalinism aren't.

Capitalism has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty over the last 25 years, and continues to do so.

The problem is the stagnation of the wages of the working classes in developed countries, as the consequences of globalisation plays out, but, overall, humans are happier and wealthier than ever before.

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.

They don't hate everything about Britain, just the monarchy, the army, the navy, the RAF, the police, the court system, the City, big business, small traders, farmers, homeowners, the middle classes, successful schools, the best universities, the countryside, and most of our cultural heritage.

And, many (most?) wish to abolish Britain as a nation state entirely in the longer-term.

That's a red flag to a bull to patriotic Britons.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Australian boxer Taylah Robertson is already guaranteed to win a Commonwealth Games medal - without throwing a punch.

With only seven boxers entered in the women's 51kg category, the 19-year-old received a bye into the semi-finals on Friday, 13 April.

As both losing semi-finalists will win bronze, the teenager will definitely come away with a medal.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/commonwealth-games/43638697

Its things like this that result in people not taking the Commonwealth Games even vaguely seriously. I am very keen on sports but I will not go out of my way to watch it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?

They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.

Thanks for that, was trying to think of the way that results in the least inconvenience to the ‘suspect’ in this case, formally clearing him without tying him up in costs.

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

So British is he that he seems to hate everything about Britain. Sure he makes jam and has an allotment and is probably fun to chat to in the pub. My son has met him and had a selfie with him and said he was pleasant and polite. But so what? What he gets inspiration from - the Far Left - has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried.

Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.

For that matter, if we want to be provocative, capitalism has caused misery to millions everywhere it has been tried, and continues to do so. Obviously it doesn't involve large-scale slaughter as Stalinism did, but it's perfectly reasonable for people to try to find alternatives nservatives actually accept.

I agree with the second part of this. Capitalism needs to work for people. If it doesn't it is no surprise if people look for alternatives.

But the alternatives which Corbyn has praised for lifting people out of poverty (those that weren't murdered or starved) - including, most recently, on the Marr programme - Mao's China, have involved mass murder. Corbyn should know this and yet he smirked and put it forward as an example and people think that this is OK.

And he has praised Venezuela where people are starving and dying. And his

Capitalism has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty over the last 25 years, and continues to do so.

The problem is the stagnation of the wages of the working classes in developed countries, as the consequences of globalisation plays out, but, overall, humans are happier and wealthier than ever before.

Yes hundreds of millions of Chinese have left the poverty of the Mao years and moved to the middle class thanks largely to a shift in China from communism to capitalism.

The fact the West now has more competition from a growing Chinese economy means capitalism is less profitable for western workers than it was 50 years ago but a capitalist West is still more profitable for them than a communist West would be

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

The Russians doing their usual thing of lying 100% of the time, and taking advantage of everyone else when they tell the truth, messy as it usually is.

And, that's enough. There are enough people out there willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, who like to think they're savvy because they distrust Western officialdom.

If Russia was in the dock, then the burden of proof is beyond all reasonable doubt. That there are Useful Idiots saying we have to prove beyond all unreasonable doubt is being exploited by the people who did this.

If Russia was in the dock, there would undoubtedly be a conviction - unless the CPS was unfortunate enough to have Corbyn and TSE on the jury. In which case, the judge would get a majority verdict.

(As an aside, had lunch on Monday with somebody who is, let us say, part of the Serrated Edge of the Establishment. He was in absolutely no doubt. None at all. It was Russia.)

I have no doubt it was Russia. But, a surprising number of my friends and colleagues (not the majority, just a surprising number) think I'm naive, and want to see the evidence.

Corbynistas have more ideologically in common with Putin's government than the current UK government so why would they not refuse to believe it is Russia?

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Quite - although no doubt there is additional evidence which is not yet public.

In terms of what is public, it goes way beyond balance of probability, but perhaps falls very slightly short of beyond a reasonable doubt ?

Given Russia's reaction after the incident, there can be no reasonable doubt even on the public information.

Arguably so (and like TSE, I'd vote to convict).

But Johnson's carelessness and/or dishonestly has, to extend the metaphor, introduced a scintilla of doubt which a talented defence brief would certainly exploit.

I don't think JC has been described as a "talented defence brief" before...

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/981509870791921664

Tissue_Price said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Quite - although no doubt there is additional evidence which is not yet public.

In terms of what is public, it goes way beyond balance of probability, but perhaps falls very slightly short of beyond a reasonable doubt ?

Given Russia's reaction after the incident, there can be no reasonable doubt even on the public information.

Arguably so (and like TSE, I'd vote to convict).

But Johnson's carelessness and/or dishonestly has, to extend the metaphor, introduced a scintilla of doubt which a talented defence brief would certainly exploit.

I don't think JC has been described as a "talented defence brief" before...

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/981509870791921664

And still hasn't.

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...

No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.

still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.

Decorators will be in soon
PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.

I agree that is a problem for her. I guess she will push it through Holyrood and then have May say no to create a further grievance. But her position of waiting to see what comes from Brexit is already looking a dangerous hostage to fortune for her.

I think she has to wait and see how good/bad Brexit is going to look. Then hope May blocks it.

The transition period ends in December 2020.

The next Holyrood elections are in May 2021 and on current polling will produce a Unionist majority anyway

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

.

.

I agree with the second part of this. Capitalism needs to work for people. If it doesn't it is no surprise if people look for alternatives.

But the alternatives which Corbyn has praised for lifting people out of poverty (those that weren't murdered or starved) - including, most recently, on the Marr programme - Mao's China, have involved mass murder. Corbyn should know this and yet he smirked and put it forward as an example and people think that this is OK.

And he has praised Venezuela where people are starving and dying. And his criticisms of Soviet Russia do not centre on the millions slaughtered.

I mean, come off it! Those systems are not an alternative to capitalism, not in any sane world. They are a dystopia and the fact that we have people who like Corbyn and his mini-me Milne think that Soviet Russia and Cuba (because they had a health service - as if that was something unheard of in any other country) are something to be admired and emulated proves how historically and morally stupid they are.

I mean, come off it! The radical tradition Foxy describes is patriotic and British and much to be admired. Marxism / Leninism / Maoism / Stalinism aren't.

Capitalism has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty over the last 25 years, and continues to do so.

The problem is the stagnation of the wages of the working classes in developed countries, as the consequences of globalisation plays out, but, overall, humans are happier and wealthier than ever before.

Absolutely, there’s never been fewer actually poor people in the world than there are right now. Capitalism in China is one of mankind’s greatest ever achievements.


Stagnation of wages in certain sectors of rich countries is a problem that needs careful consideration, but there’s no easy solution.

One proposed solution that clearly isn’t, is Corbyn’s Venezuela-style communism. That only ever ends up one way.
https://twitter.com/AEI/status/937380169375010816

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43628485?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_sport&ns_source=facebook&ns_linkname=sport

Harry Kane's agent will be on he blower shortly I presume..

Yup, especially in light of this

Tottenham Hotspur chief executive Daniel Levy received an astonishing jump in pay last year from £2.84 million to more than £6 million.

It is more than double the amount that was received by any other Premier League executive during the previous 2015-16 season and is expected to make him comfortably the highest remunerated director during the 2016-17 accounting year for which Tottenham today published their results.....

....Manager Mauricio Pochettino and star striker Harry Kane are currently understood to be on annual basic wages of between £5.5 million and £6 million, although Tottenham do structure their deals with heavy additional performance bonuses.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/04/03/tottenham-announce-record-revenue-306mdespite-reduced-gate-receipts/

The money in football is obscene but the money Levy has made his club in ramping up transfer fees will cover that several times over.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/981513711851659264

Succinct and hit the nail on the head

Stark_Dawning said:

Theresa must be livid. We all agreed that the Salisbury saga had the potential to be her Falklands moment, but Boris's loose lips have come along and possibly ruined it. The worst part, from her perspective, is that it's made Jezza look calm and scrupulous - the absolute last thing she needs to take hold in the public psyche.

Nah Corbyn still looks like a parrot spouting Russia BS.

Mr. Repington, welcome to PB.

Stark_Dawning said:

Theresa must be livid. We all agreed that the Salisbury saga had the potential to be her Falklands moment, but Boris's loose lips have come along and possibly ruined it. The worst part, from her perspective, is that it's made Jezza look calm and scrupulous - the absolute last thing she needs to take hold in the public psyche.

Nope. Still made Corbyn look like a Russian stooge.

Nobody has come up with a plausible Scenario B.

The problem is the stagnation of the wages of the working classes in developed countries,

@Casino

it's not just stagnation....it's extreme inequality that is plaguing western economies. Politicians talk austerity...yet people with assets, portfolios, property...have become much wealthier over these last years for doing very little.

The Tories are beginning to cotton on to the fact that the Govt needs to intervene in markets more. Unfettered capitalism brings on SportsDirect and Philip Green plundering pensions....as well as causing untold environmental destruction. Wealth rather than income needs to be taxed more and distributed. The next Tory manifesto is going to be the most leftward of any in recent memory...to the left of Ed Miliband....as the Tories fight Labour on populist left territory.

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...

No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.

still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.

Decorators will be in soon
PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.

I agree that is a problem for her. I guess she will push it through Holyrood and then have May say no to create a further grievance. But her position of waiting to see what comes from Brexit is already looking a dangerous hostage to fortune for her.

I think she has to wait and see how good/bad Brexit is going to look. Then hope May blocks it.

The transition period ends in December 2020.

The next Holyrood elections are in May 2021 and on current polling will produce a Unionist majority anyway

We will know how bad it is by end of this year, also whether Tories will keep the devolution powers they stole, etc , etc. plenty of time to get it done 2019-2020

tyson said:

The problem is the stagnation of the wages of the working classes in developed countries,

@Casino

it's not just stagnation....it's extreme inequality that is plaguing western economies. Politicians talk austerity...yet people with assets, portfolios, property...have become much wealthier over these last years for doing very little.

The Tories are beginning to cotton on to the fact that the Govt needs to intervene in markets more. Unfettered capitalism brings on SportsDirect and Philip Green plundering pensions....as well as causing untold environmental destruction. Wealth rather than income needs to be taxed more and distributed. The next Tory manifesto is going to be the most leftward of any in recent memory...to the left of Ed Miliband....as the Tories fight Labour on populist left territory.

The Tories are certainly not going to tax wealth more, half the reason they lost their majority last time was the disastrous dementia tax plan.

They are pushing more housebuilding and let us not forget it was Osborne who increased the minimum wage

MarqueeMark said:

Nobody has come up with a plausible Scenario B.

Indeed, even the Russians aren't trying to promote a plausible alternative explanation. Instead we have had a succession of BS from them to muddy the water, undisguised glee on social media and TV, and finally some belated pretence of concern for the attempted murder of one of their citizens.

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

The Russians doing their usual thing of lying 100% of the time, and taking advantage of everyone else when they tell the truth, messy as it usually is.

And, that's enough. There are enough people out there willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, who like to think they're savvy because they distrust Western officialdom.

If Russia was in the dock, then the burden of proof is beyond all reasonable doubt. That there are Useful Idiots saying we have to prove beyond all unreasonable doubt is being exploited by the people who did this.

If Russia was in the dock, there would undoubtedly be a conviction - unless the CPS was unfortunate enough to have Corbyn and TSE on the jury. In which case, the judge would get a majority verdict.

(As an aside, had lunch on Monday with somebody who is, let us say, part of the Serrated Edge of the Establishment. He was in absolutely no doubt. None at all. It was Russia.)

I have no doubt it was Russia. But, a surprising number of my friends and colleagues (not the majority, just a surprising number) think I'm naive, and want to see the evidence.

That's where blairism has taken us.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...

No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.

still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.

Decorators will be in soon
PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.

I agree that is a problem for her. I guess she will push it through Holyrood and then have May say no to create a further grievance. But her position of waiting to see what comes from Brexit is already looking a dangerous hostage to fortune for her.

I think she has to wait and see how good/bad Brexit is going to look. Then hope May blocks it.

The transition period ends in December 2020.

The next Holyrood elections are in May 2021 and on current polling will produce a Unionist majority anyway

We will know how bad it is by end of this year, also whether Tories will keep the devolution powers they stole, etc , etc. plenty of time to get it done 2019-2020

The transition period means we are effectively in the EU in all but name until 2021 and the next Holyrood elections

Pulpstar said:

Boris' claim was daft. Here's what he *should* have said.

"Porton Down has made clear the agent is indeed Novichok, and our intelligence sources confirm this can only have come from Russia".

Well quite, but those who want to have a go at Boris have really chosen the wrong subject here.

The government worked bloody hard to get the international reaction that they did to the Salisbury attack, and now certain idiots in the media are working with Corbyn to run Putin’s agenda.

Ray Wilkins dies - great fooballer and gentleman - RIP

glw said:

MarqueeMark said:

Nobody has come up with a plausible Scenario B.

Indeed, even the Russians aren't trying to promote a plausible alternative explanation. Instead we have had a succession of BS from them to muddy the water, undisguised glee on social media and TV, and finally some belated pretence of concern for the attempted murder of one of their citizens.

"Concern" - if you think Don Corleone bringing you a bunch of flowers after his goons missed you first time around is "Concern"!

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43628485?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_sport&ns_source=facebook&ns_linkname=sport

Harry Kane's agent will be on he blower shortly I presume..

Yup, especially in light of this

Tottenham Hotspur chief executive Daniel Levy received an astonishing jump in pay last year from £2.84 million to more than £6 million.

It is more than double the amount that was received by any other Premier League executive during the previous 2015-16 season and is expected to make him comfortably the highest remunerated director during the 2016-17 accounting year for which Tottenham today published their results.....

....Manager Mauricio Pochettino and star striker Harry Kane are currently understood to be on annual basic wages of between £5.5 million and £6 million, although Tottenham do structure their deals with heavy additional performance bonuses.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/04/03/tottenham-announce-record-revenue-306mdespite-reduced-gate-receipts/

The money in football is obscene but the money Levy has made his club in ramping up transfer fees will cover that several times over.

Fine with this - Levy has been a class act - it also should help he loosens the strings to keep our key players (and manager) I would hope too given this.... of course if he doesn't and they walk, then he's in for a LOT of grief from the fans. Would be madness to do so though as we move to such a large stadium and will need to fill it with their expensive season tickets.

HYUFD said:

Andrew said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/981513711851659264

Seems a fair summary.

Boris probably assumed that his spell as ForSec would be an audition for the big chair. Hasn't exactly worked out that way for him.

For most Tories or potential Tories Boris' claim that Russia was responsible is irrefutable.

Left of centre voters and hard-core Remainers are dissing Boris but they would never vote Tory at the next general election anyway nor for a Boris led Tory Party regardless of what he said

Boris is not on my list for next leader and never will be

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Andrew said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/981513711851659264

Seems a fair summary.

Boris probably assumed that his spell as ForSec would be an audition for the big chair. Hasn't exactly worked out that way for him.

For most Tories or potential Tories Boris' claim that Russia was responsible is irrefutable.

Left of centre voters and hard-core Remainers are dissing Boris but they would never vote Tory at the next general election anyway nor for a Boris led Tory Party regardless of what he said

Boris is not on my list for next leader and never will be

Maybe not but 8 out of 10 of the top 10 Tory target seats from Labour they need for a majority next time are Labour Leave seats and you were a Remainer

Considering football is an entertainment business and Levy has driven Spurs forward his £6m renumeration doesn't seem excessive to me.
Harry Kane is definitely underpaid on any meaningful metric mind.