Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as str
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party
Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/
Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.
They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
Casino....I'm posting it again for your benefit.
BTW....I never trust a bloke who doesn't like footie or beer, unless they are gay in which case I give an exemption.
“This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”
I agree. But what to do?
I think Corbyn will lead Labour for as long as he wishes.
We (almost) all ended up with eggs on our faces that night.
We could see a Tory result of 40-42% again, with Labour on that 35%, and a decent Tory majority for a 3rd+ term.
It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.
I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
The best thing leave can do is produce a good Brexit for the country. That's the way to 'win'; if you fail in that, then it doesn't matter how much you fight on the airwaves: you'll lose.
Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
@Cyclefree Vanilla message for you.
One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.
I struggled to process it.
Tories gonna take Gordon, Banff, Ochill, and Perth & North Perthshire.
I told my friend to book into rehab PDQ.
TV news media mike.
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
But, Shipley was not a London, nor university, seat, nor a marginal, so I disbelieved it.
Plus looking at the messages from that night, another explanation was just two words, ‘Philip Davies’
Pensioners who own a home - so have negligible housing costs - and a modest private and or state pension will mostly end up paying for the entire cost of their home care. It's residential care that costs the big bucks and where dementia patients eventually end up.
Of course how socialist is it to say someone worth £5 million (as they own a £3m house which a charge could be places) but savings of £20k should get free home care in reality - assuming they even get a package from their council which is a big if - but someone who is worth only £50k (in Savings) who rents has to pay 100 per cent of the costs.
What a shameful system whereby someone who is worth 100 times as much gets something for free whereas the other pays the entire cost - which May tried to suggest should be changed - but failed to explain why.
Social care is in a shocking state and many homes are frankly a disgrace with poor care staffed by minimum wage earning staff - but hey let's worry about the inheritance not the care of the person who we inherit from.
I would guess 2022 seems a long way away for Jezza...especially as it seems he cannot fart at the moment without it appearing in the press with some anti Semitic tag...
BTW....my opinion of the anti Semitic stuff is just further proof that Corbyn doesn't play politics out of the rulebook, and he's not going to compromise now. Similarly, Russia. The press and the Blairites can huff and puff for all they like, but he is not going to change course now.
bigjohnowls Posts: 9,489
June 2017
Amber Rudd is officially an ex MP
DavidL Posts: 19,121
June 2017
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky predicting 324 - 326 majority
Its going to be 330. I told you 4.5 hours ago now.
Paristonda said:
Hahaha Philip Davies gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Best result so far.
The care system for the elderly is a national disgrace...unless you are one of those who can pay the 5k a month or more, and even then you are warehoused and cared for by people paid a pittance.
I really do believe that housing old people together, cared by staff on minimum wage, at the end of their lives is utterly inhumane and future generations will not believe we ever went down that route.
The predictions on the correct side look better than the incorrect ones in hindsight (Hastings/Canterbury) but fundamentally they're both TCTC earlyish
I have retained all my teeth.
In less happy news, I agree with Mr. Smithson that the Cult will never desert Corbyn.
It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
They will still get trashed by the MSM .Corbyn has shown not to bother trying to get them onside.I bet Ed Milliband now wishes he had been more radical.
On topic.
Hard to see Corbyn getting pushed out, presumably the only thing his opponents can force on him is a leadership election which he would almost surely storm through. Either that of it many of the MPs close to him turned, which seems unlikely. As long as still wants to (or believes he needs to) lead Labour and his health is okay its probably his, well for 2018 anyway and I would imagine until the next election.
Corbyn will stay until the next election shows he is unelectable.
The “wildcard” is Theresa May. She is one of the few Tory leaders who could lose to Corbyn, as she so nearly did last year.
Side topic:
We’ve heard a lot about the dodgy harvesting of Facebook data by Leave. We haven’t heard much about the proliferation of pro-Brexit, fake news pushed by Russia online. How much was that worth to Leave?
And, it could have made the difference.
TV was pretty equal Leave v Remain. But newspapers were pro-Leave, as was social media.
At the end of the day, I don’t find the election particularly safe and it’s another good reason for a vote - this time on the Deal.
But the real reason Remain lost was because Remain were crap and complacent.
The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice
And other endorsements were overwhelmingly for Remain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
Face facts: Remain had a huge advantage across the board, and totally blew it.
Sooner we move to a post "taken at face value" social media world the better.
e.g. MSP James Dornan is finding out the hard way that retweeting any old rubbish can be supremely embarrassing.
Indeed I was expecting similar; my one big betting loss since 2006....
@Mortimer...my big betting loss was 2010 where I was somewhat taken in by the Cleggasm, and POTUS 2008 where I got drunk and lost sense of rationality......
When do I get my van?
For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
OPEC members are finding out the hard way that being part of a gang doesn't always work out for the best in the long run...
What are your predictions for tonight?
I don't think that it's a given that Corbyn will serve through to 2022 but it is likely, with all that means for the future of Labour.
I refer of course to Conservative gerrymandering -- and in particular the changes to voter registration designed to get rid of Labour supporters. The trouble is, as Cameron belatedly realised, these same groups tended to support Remain. That's why there was a last-minute registration drive with a controversially-extended deadline.
And it was a double whammy because the more Labour-friendly lists led to Theresa May losing her majority.
He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...
Labour dominating a clear majority of Scottish MPs for more than my entire lifetime led to voters being taken granted far more than the SNP taking nearly all MPs for 2 years.
Home Win Barca, Draw at Anfield ?
3-1, 2-2 maybe. Not betting on anything mind.
Man City are the better team but Liverpool have every chance in 90 minutes of a victory, especially at Anfield.
But not this year - if you're planning for a 2022 election then a new leader around 2020 would probably be about right. The competition amongst the left to be that leader will be intense.
I don't think that AV or 2-round run-offs would have worked that well for the SNP - it would have allowed unionist votes to consolidate - but that's down to the nature of the SNP. In other scenarios - where the dominant party is less divisive and fairly centralist, as in 1997, for example, AV translates a party's lead in votes into an even greater one in seats than FPTP does.
As for the broadcast media, I don't accept that there was any significant bias towards Remain. The BBC was always presenting a countervailing view from 'leave' whenever some 'expert' or 'grandee' was wheeled out by the remain side.
The way I see it, there were were two dubious memes that were deployed very effectively by the leave side. One was that 'people are tired of experts', and the second was 'turkey is about to join the EU and 70 million turks are coming to the UK'. On the other hand, the remain side were seeking to rely on general statements like 'stronger in Europe', 'safer in Europe' , and hoping that people would accept this on the authority of the people who were telling them it, which turned out to be insufficient to get them over the line.
I thought the campaign on both sides was very poor. But I think the idea that leave cheated or there is some underlying conspiracy is nonsense. They won, at least partly because people are tired of experts and don't want 70 million Turks arriving in the UK. As disturbing as that may be, that is democracy, and we have to live with it.
I won a good whack on John Isner at the weekend, so what the hell? Betting on sports on the whole is not to make money....
Jezza was not the horned demon that the papers made out, but actually a rather popular eccentric Englishman, with a deep and passionate feeling for the downtrodden. He fought on his own terms about domestic issues of fairness, intergenerational justice and a country fit to live in.
As @NickPalmer has pointed out, votes are not decided by their accountants going over the manifestos, it is an emotional choice about themes and values. Jezza does well with these, and despite his eccentricity has an Emotional Intelligence that connects, particularly outside the Westminster bubble.
I think the probability is that once he has control of the party apparatus (which he seems to at the moment), he will step down. He was very close to stepping down after Brexit. So a 2018 exit may not be that unrealistic, but 3/1 is not good value.
Good post Foxy....kind of explains why someone like Corbyn has grown on people like us...the Russia and anti semitic stuff is going to get as much traction as a coach stuck in a snowstorm....
Corbyn is quintessentially and eccentrically English. You'd trust him to look after your kids and you would always appreciate bumping into him in the street to have a quick natter...
If the Tories win the next general election with an overall majority then he might depart