politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the polls edged away from Corbyn’s LAB
The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion.
Comments
-
But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.0
-
But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much0
-
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
The stat above should not be misinterpreted; if Labour showed a consistent 1 point lead in February and the Tories a consistent 1 point lead in March, then the above chart would appear to show a big "swing".TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
That is in fact not far off what has actually happened.
0 -
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
Eh, it's still close0
-
-
"What we haven’t had yet have been any surveys taken after this week’s antisemitism row so we can’t really determine how Corbyn and Labour have been affected by that."
How would you disentangle that from Skripal and May's diplomatic boost?0 -
-
I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!0 -
Undermines his case if anythingScott_P said:0 -
Conclusive proof that shit floats to the top...rottenborough said:0 -
It's getting ridiculous.kle4 said:I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
Perhaps they're trolling us: they know darned well the sick loyalists will support Corbyn through thick and thin, and therefore he can do anything.
0 -
A government eight years in would normally expect the most bloody of beatings at local council elections.Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.kle4 said:I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!0 -
Also worth remembering in the 2014 local elections, the last time the wards with elections in May were up for election, Labour had a 2% lead.
If the Tories now have a national poll lead again they could even make net gains in the local elections0 -
Is that right? I'm not a Facebook user, but how odd it doesn't allow you to easily see all the (presumably a great many in Corbyn's case) groups you belong to. I suppose that gets his office somewhat off the hook as to why they haven't scrubbed him from these things.Ishmael_Z said:
There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.kle4 said:I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
If it wouldn;t get leaked I'd have thought most parties would be asking all their MPs to check exactly what groups they belong to, and see what their content is like!0 -
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead0 -
0
-
That does look like a pattern. Hard to say whether the most recent polls should be attributed to the GE result effect petering out, or the impact of Corbyn snuggling up to Russia.
Mr. Rabbit, quite.0 -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
If they make net gains, it will be because they have lost 150 councillors to Labour and gained 151 from UKIP.HYUFD said:Also worth remembering in the 2014 local elections, the last time the wards with elections in May were up for election, Labour had a 2% lead.
If the Tories now have a national poll lead again they could even make net gains in the local elections
I would rate net gains from Labour as extremely unlikely.0 -
Copy that.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dura_Ace
Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.0 -
What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?HYUFD said:
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.0 -
Not happening.Scott_P said:
0 -
The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.stodge said:Morning all
On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.
Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.
No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother
As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..
A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.rottenborough said:More news from the cesspits:
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/9787678596806737940 -
Try the arrow at top-right (next to quick help), choose 'your groups', and then click on the groups tab?Ishmael_Z said:
There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.kle4 said:I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
That seems to have all of mine, but I'm not a group-hoarder.
Edit: ISTR that people could also add you to groups without asking you first; you just got a notification. I've no idea if my memory is correct, or if that's still the case. If it is, there's a ready-made excuse or Corbyn.0 -
It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.tlg86 said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
Yep, those are the sort of intellectual contortions the cult are now having to perform to keep up with the present situation.kle4 said:
The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.stodge said:Morning all
On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.
Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.
No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother
As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..
A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.rottenborough said:More news from the cesspits:
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/978767859680673794
Orwell predicted all this decades ago.0 -
I use an exponentially smoothed moving average (EMA) with a 10% decay rate to smooth out the noise and give greater weight to more recent polls.
The current EMA is Con 41.2% Lab 41.4% LD 7.3% UKIP 2.9%
Recently the Labour lead has narrowed a bit and it is currently a dead heat between the two main parties.0 -
Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?Pulpstar said:
It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.tlg86 said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
0 -
I think that was stated to be the case with some,but not all, of these groups that have comeup for him.JosiasJessop said:
Try the arrow at top-right (next to quick help), choose 'your groups', and then click on the groups tab?Ishmael_Z said:
There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.kle4 said:I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
That seems to have all of mine, but I'm not a group-hoarder.
Edit: ISTR that people could also add you to groups without asking you first; you just got a notification. I've no idea if my memory is correct, or if that's still the case. If it is, there's a ready-made excuse or Corbyn.0 -
The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu0 -
John McDonnell's been very quiet over the last few days hasn't he?
Or have I missed him.0 -
Extraordinary. So appears that Jewish Voice of Lab is a Momentum front organisation.kle4 said:
The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.stodge said:Morning all
On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.
Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.
No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother
As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..
A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.rottenborough said:More news from the cesspits:
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/9787678596806737940 -
The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...TheScreamingEagles said:
What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?HYUFD said:
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs0 -
Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.
I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).0 -
chortleScott_P said:
remainers want to take the word of a man they called a swivel eyed liar barely a month ago
#desperation0 -
But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.Pulpstar said:
The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...TheScreamingEagles said:
What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?HYUFD said:
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs
Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.
You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.0 -
"The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."tlg86 said:
Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?Pulpstar said:
It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.tlg86 said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......0 -
I fear my humour is too subtleTheScreamingEagles said:
But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.Pulpstar said:
The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...TheScreamingEagles said:
What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?HYUFD said:
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs
Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.
You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic. 0 -
Oops, my apologies.Pulpstar said:
I fear my humour is too subtleTheScreamingEagles said:
But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.Pulpstar said:
The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...TheScreamingEagles said:
What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?HYUFD said:
In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.TheScreamingEagles said:But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs
Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.
You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.0 -
And in response to the thread this is a good onekle4 said:
The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.stodge said:Morning all
On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.
Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.
No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother
As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..
A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.rottenborough said:More news from the cesspits:
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/978767859680673794
Although I see this as a distraction now, and believe that the fight against Brexit is our first and last priority, then, the NHS, I was very sad to read these posts.
I'm sad about it, but can we not talk about this now please? (They have come back and clarified you cannot fight racism without democracy. So I guess there will be no democracy post brexit).0 -
Look forward to it.Dura_Ace said:
Copy that.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dura_Ace
Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.
(As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)0 -
-
Lets wait and see if Hardwick brings a constructive dismissal case about.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.
I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).0 -
You know all those meetings of the great & the good over recent weeks who’ve been looking to stop Brexit?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Undermines his case if anythingScott_P said:
This is what they’ve been working on.0 -
"The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."TheScreamingEagles said:The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu
Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.0 -
Okay, you're right - but I think 2017 was an exception.Pulpstar said:
"The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."tlg86 said:
Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?Pulpstar said:
It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.tlg86 said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
It certainly feels like we're back to normal in terms of thinking about an electoral cycle - we're even talking about May v Corbyn in 2022. So I think it is worth considering what a government in waiting ought to be doing in the locals. And I think I saw you say something about Labour needing to win in Trafford if they were to look like forming the next government.0 -
The self-importance is something else.Scott_P said:0 -
Whilst I'm unsure about the guy who said 'gas the Jews?' 23 times (although I haven't watched the video) I do agree that the decision regarding Worboys shouldn't be political. One of the concepts behind justice (or at least to my mind) is the idea that everyone is held to the same set of standards (laws) regardless of who they are and how they are viewed. If the by the current standards he should be paroled then either the standards are wrong or it is the right decision. The popularity of individual decisions shouldn't be a factor.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.
I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).0 -
I'd agree the Tories are in the box seat right now - but it'd be unwise to rule Corbs and co out the race just yettlg86 said:
Okay, you're right - but I think 2017 was an exception.Pulpstar said:
"The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."tlg86 said:
Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?Pulpstar said:
It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.tlg86 said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/Anazina said:
I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.Pulpstar said:
We have some very important polls in just over a month's timeAnazina said:
Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.TheScreamingEagles said:But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
It certainly feels like we're back to normal in terms of thinking about an electoral cycle - we're even talking about May v Corbyn in 2022. So I think it is worth considering what a government in waiting ought to be doing in the locals. And I think I saw you say something about Labour needing to win in Trafford if they were to look like forming the next government.
Trafford, Newc Under Lyme and London generally are all important come May.0 -
-
I think today's Ministerial Statement will be illuminating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
"The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."TheScreamingEagles said:The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu
Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.
I suspect his resignation might be do something to do with the Parole Board not being aware or prepared for the storm that would inevitably follow from the release of Worboys.0 -
-
Looks like the judgment is going through be so blistering, best if everybody can say “but that was then, under the old regime...”TheScreamingEagles said:The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu0 -
No-one is forced to resign. They can choose to resign. They might feel they have no option but to resign (though they'd be wrong: they can always wait to be sacked). They might be told that their best interests would be served if they resigned (which could be inappropriate). They might even be told by their employer that they should resign (which would certainly be inappropriate). But they cannot be forced to resign.TheWhiteRabbit said:
"The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."TheScreamingEagles said:The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu
Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.0 -
He took advice, apparently that advice was not to do it, and he will now look silly. But the important thing is there were legal/procedural issues with the release, and that's good.Scott_P said:
Of course, it is possible that a new board hearing, considering everything they should have and doing everything correctly, might also decide to release him I suppose. Presumably he is going to be released at some point.0 -
As another aside, we should have pulled out of the F35 project - or at least threatened to - when the US DoD stopped funding the alternative GE/RR F136 engine.Nigelb said:
Look forward to it.Dura_Ace said:
Copy that.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dura_Ace
Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.
(As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)0 -
David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, cheers for that video. Interesting stuff. Quantum mechanics is just plain weird.0
-
Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.Pulpstar said:David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.0 -
Not sure he is, or at least, if you are imagining he might lose his job, not.Pulpstar said:David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.0 -
Yes it apparently violates causality, but I doubt Survation asking an austerity question after VI does so in the same way.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, cheers for that video. Interesting stuff. Quantum mechanics is just plain weird.
0 -
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/7464883165104824330 -
Mr. Jezziah, to annoy his girlfriend he trained her pug to raise its paw in a 'Nazi salute' when he said that phrase (gas the Jews).
As an aside, the Nazis punished a man who taught his circus animals to do likewise.0 -
They can't.MarqueeMark said:
The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.0 -
-
I assume process drags out the next bit of the Worboys saga out past the local elections ?0
-
Scrub him from the leadership stakes....Scott_P said:0 -
Lol - these are the two guys that will stop Brexit ?Scott_P said:
They look like the SJW version of Kevin and Perry.
0 -
There's an amusing New Yorker article on the stupidity of Trump and his lawyers in dealing with this case..Scott_P said:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-the-stormy-daniels-story-keeps-escalating-a-thirteen-step-guide0 -
@singharj: EXC Dan Jarvis will attempt to defy Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ruling NEC to become Sheffield City Region mayor while remaining an MP. He has the backing of S. Yorks council leaders and Yorkshire and Humber Labour MPs, and they have all written to high command, I understand.
If Labour chooses to strip Jarvis of nomination for mayor because he won’t stand down as an MP, he will not fight the election against a Labour candidate as an independent. Party now in difficult position given Jarvis backing from MPs, councils and members.0 -
I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...Scott_P said:
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/7464883165104824330 -
Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.Pulpstar said:David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.
He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.0 -
There is no near or medium term UAS that can do all of the F35 missions so probably not. F35 is not an expensive platform when you consider the breadth of its capabilities. The Typhoon is the really money pit. The entire program cost is north of 40bn quid and the RAF is going to end up with 160 airframes. Do the maths; it's the second most expensive combat aircraft ever produced after B2 and the MoD takes brand new ones off the production line and reduces them to spares...Nigelb said:
Look forward to it.Dura_Ace said:
Copy that.TheScreamingEagles said:@Dura_Ace
Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.
(As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)
UAS acquisitions are one part of defence policy that has been managed anomalously well. Possibly because we've bought the best available product on commercial terms and then not dicked around with it because we think we know better. Certifiable Predator B was a very wise acquisition and gives the RAF a genuinely leading edge UAS capability.
Taranis/FCAS/nEUROn is a just a Soviet style pay people to dig holes and fill them in work creation scheme. However, that now looks like it may fall apart over Brexit so every cloud and all that...0 -
I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.Casino_Royale said:
They can't.MarqueeMark said:
The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.0 -
Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.MarqueeMark said:
Scrub him from the leadership stakes....Scott_P said:
I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.0 -
Shadsy is offering 50-1 (Boosted to 60-1 for me) on him being next out the cabinetTheScreamingEagles said:
Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.MarqueeMark said:
Scrub him from the leadership stakes....Scott_P said:
I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
I was allowed £7.50 at 60-10 -
He could say he saved money by letting someone else JR the decision.Scott_P said:
In all seriousness, Mr Herdson is right about politicians having to sense-check advice, but it doesn't personally feel to me like a resignable instance. However, he might well do so to avoid a storm.0 -
So now the focus is only on the unofficial group "leave.eu" ?
Some clarity on which side they were actually helping would be a start..0 -
The secretary of state commissioned legal advice last week on the plausibility and prospect of success of a judicial review.david_herdson said:
Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.Pulpstar said:David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.
He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will disappoint victims in this case and members of this house given the crimes for which he has been convicted. I share those concerns.”.....
.....Gauke said he could not reveal the detailed reasons for the legal advice not to pursue a judicial review targeting two areas of the decision. The first was whether any parole board could reasonably have taken such a decision; the second was whether there were any significant failings in the procedure.
Gauke said: “The test for deciding if the [Parole Board] decision is unreasonable is not simply that the decision-maker could have made an alternative decision, but that no reasonable person would have come to the same conclusion.”
He said that to challenge the decision on procedural grounds it would be necessary to show that failure to follow process had a material impact on the decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/19/john-worboys-release-government-not-pursue-judicial-review0 -
Must be a value bet at 60-1 next out cabinet..kle4 said:
He could say he saved money by letting someone else JR the decision.Scott_P said:
In all seriousness, Mr Herdson is right about politicians having to sense-check advice, but it doesn't personally feel to me like a resignable instance. However, he might well do so to avoid a storm.0 -
Bargain.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy is offering 50-1 (Boosted to 60-1 for me) on him being next out the cabinetTheScreamingEagles said:
Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.MarqueeMark said:
Scrub him from the leadership stakes....Scott_P said:
I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
I was allowed £7.50 at 60-10 -
Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...Scott_P said:
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/7464883165104824330 -
So about that good few weeks Mrs May had0
-
Sounds like a pretty standard test of legal reasonableness.TheScreamingEagles said:
The secretary of state commissioned legal advice last week on the plausibility and prospect of success of a judicial review.david_herdson said:
Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.Pulpstar said:David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.
He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will disappoint victims in this case and members of this house given the crimes for which he has been convicted. I share those concerns.”.....
.....Gauke said he could not reveal the detailed reasons for the legal advice not to pursue a judicial review targeting two areas of the decision. The first was whether any parole board could reasonably have taken such a decision; the second was whether there were any significant failings in the procedure.
Gauke said: “The test for deciding if the [Parole Board] decision is unreasonable is not simply that the decision-maker could have made an alternative decision, but that no reasonable person would have come to the same conclusion.”
He said that to challenge the decision on procedural grounds it would be necessary to show that failure to follow process had a material impact on the decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/19/john-worboys-release-government-not-pursue-judicial-review
Funnily enough using that definition his decision not to proceed was probably reasonable (even if as it turns out the judges did think the original decision was flawed), but on a more casual definition fewer people are likely to think it was reasonable.0 -
The Lords will certainly vote through a series of inconvenient amendments which will go through a ping-pong process.RoyalBlue said:
I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.Casino_Royale said:
They can't.MarqueeMark said:
The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
I confess, I haven't been following this closely, but this does feel underreported at the moment.0 -
I have a little more time for that one, as it actually contains an arguable point. But yes, even that meme is a little tiresome.Casino_Royale said:
Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...Scott_P said:
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/7464883165104824330 -
This one?Casino_Royale said:Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.
0 -
Interestingly, the court has ruled that the Mayor of London did not have standing to bring a claim:
https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/dsd-nbv-v-parole-board-and-ors-summary.pdf
0 -
Please refer to it by its correct title as the "Bus of Xenophobic Lies".Casino_Royale said:
Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...Scott_P said:
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
Thank you.
0 -
I think everyone even the media got a bit bored by Brexit, at least in terms of the UK processes. We've had a break with the stuff on the transition, and of course Salisbury has taken centre ground, and the Tories have had a decent month, but we'll get back to formula soon.Casino_Royale said:
The Lords will certainly vote through a series of inconvenient amendments which will go through a ping-pong process.RoyalBlue said:
I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.Casino_Royale said:
They can't.MarqueeMark said:
The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
I confess, I haven't been following this closely, but this does feel underreported at the moment.0 -
I can see why you'd rather it was forgotten.Casino_Royale said:
Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...Scott_P said:
I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.MarqueeMark said:If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/7464883165104824330 -
Yes. Has some bad news hit her today?TheScreamingEagles said:So about that good few weeks Mrs May had
0
