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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the polls edged away from Corbyn’s LAB
The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion.
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That is in fact not far off what has actually happened.
How would you disentangle that from Skripal and May's diplomatic boost?
Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
Perhaps they're trolling us: they know darned well the sick loyalists will support Corbyn through thick and thin, and therefore he can do anything.
If the Tories now have a national poll lead again they could even make net gains in the local elections
If it wouldn;t get leaked I'd have thought most parties would be asking all their MPs to check exactly what groups they belong to, and see what their content is like!
The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.
Mr. Rabbit, quite.
I would rate net gains from Labour as extremely unlikely.
The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
That seems to have all of mine, but I'm not a group-hoarder.
Edit: ISTR that people could also add you to groups without asking you first; you just got a notification. I've no idea if my memory is correct, or if that's still the case. If it is, there's a ready-made excuse or Corbyn.
Orwell predicted all this decades ago.
The current EMA is Con 41.2% Lab 41.4% LD 7.3% UKIP 2.9%
Recently the Labour lead has narrowed a bit and it is currently a dead heat between the two main parties.
A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.
Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.
Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu
Or have I missed him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs
I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).
remainers want to take the word of a man they called a swivel eyed liar barely a month ago
#desperation
Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.
You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.
1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
Although I see this as a distraction now, and believe that the fight against Brexit is our first and last priority, then, the NHS, I was very sad to read these posts.
I'm sad about it, but can we not talk about this now please? (They have come back and clarified you cannot fight racism without democracy. So I guess there will be no democracy post brexit).
(As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)
This is what they’ve been working on.
Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.
It certainly feels like we're back to normal in terms of thinking about an electoral cycle - we're even talking about May v Corbyn in 2022. So I think it is worth considering what a government in waiting ought to be doing in the locals. And I think I saw you say something about Labour needing to win in Trafford if they were to look like forming the next government.
Trafford, Newc Under Lyme and London generally are all important come May.
I suspect his resignation might be do something to do with the Parole Board not being aware or prepared for the storm that would inevitably follow from the release of Worboys.
Of course, it is possible that a new board hearing, considering everything they should have and doing everything correctly, might also decide to release him I suppose. Presumably he is going to be released at some point.
Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.
And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
As an aside, the Nazis punished a man who taught his circus animals to do likewise.
The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
They look like the SJW version of Kevin and Perry.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-the-stormy-daniels-story-keeps-escalating-a-thirteen-step-guide
If Labour chooses to strip Jarvis of nomination for mayor because he won’t stand down as an MP, he will not fight the election against a Labour candidate as an independent. Party now in difficult position given Jarvis backing from MPs, councils and members.
https://twitter.com/JeSuisSabotEUr/status/978402721689632768
He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
UAS acquisitions are one part of defence policy that has been managed anomalously well. Possibly because we've bought the best available product on commercial terms and then not dicked around with it because we think we know better. Certifiable Predator B was a very wise acquisition and gives the RAF a genuinely leading edge UAS capability.
Taranis/FCAS/nEUROn is a just a Soviet style pay people to dig holes and fill them in work creation scheme. However, that now looks like it may fall apart over Brexit so every cloud and all that...
I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
I was allowed £7.50 at 60-1
In all seriousness, Mr Herdson is right about politicians having to sense-check advice, but it doesn't personally feel to me like a resignable instance. However, he might well do so to avoid a storm.
Some clarity on which side they were actually helping would be a start..
On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will disappoint victims in this case and members of this house given the crimes for which he has been convicted. I share those concerns.”.....
.....Gauke said he could not reveal the detailed reasons for the legal advice not to pursue a judicial review targeting two areas of the decision. The first was whether any parole board could reasonably have taken such a decision; the second was whether there were any significant failings in the procedure.
Gauke said: “The test for deciding if the [Parole Board] decision is unreasonable is not simply that the decision-maker could have made an alternative decision, but that no reasonable person would have come to the same conclusion.”
He said that to challenge the decision on procedural grounds it would be necessary to show that failure to follow process had a material impact on the decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/19/john-worboys-release-government-not-pursue-judicial-review
Funnily enough using that definition his decision not to proceed was probably reasonable (even if as it turns out the judges did think the original decision was flawed), but on a more casual definition fewer people are likely to think it was reasonable.
I confess, I haven't been following this closely, but this does feel underreported at the moment.
https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/dsd-nbv-v-parole-board-and-ors-summary.pdf
Thank you.