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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last the Pennsylvania Special election is resolved with the Republicans conceding defeat
Nine days after the Pennsylvania special election the Republicans conced defeat in Congressional District won by Trump with 20% margin AT WH2016https://t.co/1kdsQkmI3u
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https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-brexit-winston-churchill-of-our-time/
The initial quote is a quarter higher than the previous year.
I have a quick search on the internet for alternatives.
I ring up my current insurer and ask them if they can do better than their initial quote.
I get offered a new quote which is less than I currently pay.
Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.
Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.
We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.
https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4
' Lib Dems embarrassed as EU leaders deny Brexit statement '
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/second-brexit-referendum-eight-eu-pms-deny-backing-liberal-democrats
In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.
But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.
“I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…
https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html
https://twitter.com/drmarkaldridge/status/976182584844652544
I seem to recall that people in UK who usually vote usually do, even though they change the party they vote for, but is that the case in the US? And isn't the turnout in US elections normally low..... 50 or so percent in Presidential ones and so on.
A couple of generations ago school fees were paid to greatly improve the chance that children would be able to go to university, which was free.
Now a university education is much more easily achieved but its now extremely expensive.
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/977111245353570304
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/shares/5/113190/twelve_month.stm
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/976591148981526528
My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.
The kleptocracy dislike Putin's foreign adventurism because it gets in the way of them grabbing and keeping the country's resources, but at the same time they are beholden to the autocrat.
https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/976827756079144968
https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/976828493114871809
That does not mean women can't win the presidency but at moment the best bets are Republicans like Nikki Haley or Michelle Obama neither of whom are likely to run in 2020
Skipton Town Council, Skipton North:
Independent (Barrett) 333
Conservative (Broadhead) 244
Labour (Kettu) 195
Green (Nash) 156
Turnout 32%
https://youtu.be/ZTT1qUswYL0
Even at a tough inner city state school or comprehensive in a deprived seaside town if you are motivated you can still do OK
Plus the salary of an NHS Doctor wasn't quite as high in 1997 as it is today.
Probably one of the few things Blair and Brown got right, massively increasing NHS salaries between 1997 and 2010.
More interesting IMV is his attitude to apprentices, which AFAICR is at odds with those of his compatriots. He hated taking on apprentices, and would only do so when forced.
https://twitter.com/celtic_spring/status/976886982059134977
Of course nowadays those chaps in ersatz SA uniforms waving swastikas would consider it a vile slur to be called Nazis, and the dirty protestors ARE THE REAL NAZIS!
It was pointed out to them if we were using that logic then North Korea must be a Democratic People's Republic because that's what they call themselves.
Whilst someone made the mistake of mentioning Brunel, it's interesting to read the obituaries from the time. He wasn't necessarily held in the same regard then as he is now.
The Engineer's obituary was particularly harsh.
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/issues/sept-2012-online/september-1859-brunels-obituary/
Perhaps there were too many people who'd lost money on some of his more fanciful projects?
Betting PostPre-qualifying article is now up, containing literally three tips.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2018.html
Backed Red Bull for the Constructors' at 6.2 (Betfair Exchange), Raikkonen for fastest lap at 15 (Ladbrokes, with boost, it's 13 without) and no Safety Car (Ladbrokes, 3.75 or 3.9 depending on boost or not) as the chances of rain have diminished.
It's looking closer than expected at the sharp end, at this early stage. If that's the case, it's advantage Red Bull as they have the best driver pairing.
Raikkonen likes his fastest laps and got it in Oz last year. Plus, with engine modes, it's probably between Mercedes and Ferrari.
Checked the last eight or so races and about half seem to have had a safety car. So 3.9 on there not being one looks nice.
Anyway, more explanation etc as well as the exciting and not at all intensely stupid idea of the 'action lap' are on my blog. So give it a read and marvel at the wonders therein.
McMaster is a real loss and Bolton is just a little bit scary. The theory that, "its the economy, stupid" is being tested to its very limits in the US.
Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.
The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.
He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw
2 years after being elected POTUS their parties got walloped in the House, but didn't stop them from winning re-election.
Or what?
I doubt the EC will approve a question 'do you accept the terms negotiated by HMG' without being clear what 'No' would mean.....
https://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/977120664254590976
Edit: of course in those days tuition fees were paid regardless, at least to undergraduates.
We would have a much better rail system today if Brunel's broad gauge, generous loading gauge and dislike of gradients and curves had been adopted system wide.
Scotland Yard has admitted Special Branch officers passed information to a controversial network that blacklisted construction workers.
It follows a six-year battle to find out if the Metropolitan Police supplied the intelligence on trade unionists.
The force says its investigation had "proven" the allegation, which will be investigated by a public inquiry.
Workers who say they were unfairly barred from jobs have already received millions of pounds in compensation.
In 2016, the union Unite reached a settlement with construction firms that resulted in 256 workers sharing more than £10m in compensation.
At the heart of the claims, which were made by hundreds of workers, was evidence that firms accessed a "blacklist" that logged workers' trade union activities.
The list was used by dozens of construction firms to vet those applying for work on building sites.
When the files were found to contain details of individual's political activities, the workers demanded that Scotland Yard disclose whether undercover police had colluded in supplying intelligence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43507728
Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.
The problem with grammar schools is that parents can buy their kids into them through the use of tutors - that also favours the less bright kids of the well-off...
This is true only to an extent - the advantage of tutoring is somewhere around 20-30% increase in chances of admission, and some grammar schools are now changing their entrance exams to significantly reduce any benefit from tutoring.
The single most effective thing parents can do for their kids is to read to them for an hour every night when they are young...
In any event, I tend to believe that quality and choice of primary level education is more important for children's educational chances than secondary.
However, grammar schools, taking the ablest, do often have very little value left to add. An A* student gets an A*, value added 0. An E grade student gets a C, value added 2. That is perhaps another point to bear in mind....
But 'value added' is measured only in terms of grades, which leaves rather a lot out of the picture.
They'll go all Brigadier Block.
The extra costs of broad gauge (and it was much more expensive to construct) might have stopped many lines being built. This may also have prevented the railway mania, but left many places unattached to the railway network and hence stifled the industrial revolution. Or it could have led to lots of 'narrow' (i.e. standard) gauge lines different to the main line network, and lots of interchanges like Waterhouses on the Leek line.
It's an interesting counterfactual.
I'd alter your last line to:
"Brunel was ahead of his time, and such people are often not fully appreciated until decades after the people whose money they lost have died."
(Though that's unfair as he was often liked by his compatriots, as the completion of the Clifton suspension bridge shows)
How frightfully foreign.
https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-majority-want-get-brexit/
57% to 22% nationally. Only 10% of Tory voters disagree.
This is day-to-day Frenchness.
You applaud Frenchness?
If either of you missed it, I posted my pre-qualifying ramble and some betting thoughts above. And even if you both saw it, that still remains the case.
The government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”.
The other options aren't given by Guido but will obviously be very tendentious.
In his autobiography, John Major said: "The phrase is traditional and outdated - the Queen's hand is not kissed."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1555863/Meeting-with-Queen-shorn-of-formalities.html
She managed to bollocks up the primary race against Obama in the same way, and IIRC there were some reports that she was trying to run up the popular vote margin by spending money in non-swing states to avoid claims that her inevitable victory was illegitimate, so I'd be more inclined to look at it from that end.
It is just good diplomatic manners.
Con
78% 10% 12%
Lab
40% 36% 24%
LD
44% 34% 22%
A pluralitity in ALL parties just want to get on with Brexit..... Are you listening Keir, Tony, Chukka, Vince, Anna?