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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the

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Not that I'm procrastinating.
After NATIVE RIVER yesterday, I'm enjoying one of those brief periods of "not doing too badly" at this punting business.
As should the Data Protection commissioner over here.
If you have an open cycle gas turbine generator, which is cheap to buy (low capex), has low maintenance expense, but which uses a lot of gas (high marginal cost), then you want it part of the system for when there are problems, but you don't want it generating very often. Capacity payments encourage operators to keep this kind of back up power.
Over time, the UK grid will contain nuclear baseload, lots of renewables, and lots of peaking power. (A mixture of CCGTs that will be used every evening and in winter, and OCGTs that are used infrequently.)
I would probably get rid of the nuclear, as it has a habit of not being particularly reliable.
Number Cruncher Politics
@NCPoliticsUK
31m31 minutes ago
Opinium/Observer:
CON 42 (=)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 6 (-1)
UKIP 4 (-1)
SNP 4 (=)
Fieldwork to 15th March (Changes from 8th Feb)
N~2,000
More than two-fifths of voters (43%) say May has the best interests of the country at heart compared with 39% who say Corbyn has. Thirty-two percent say the prime minister is able to stand up for Britain’s interests against 28% who believe Corbyn is.
Right wing, Beeb-bashing loons are now learning how they sound to normal people.
3....2....1.... De-Activate.......
Building the Dogger wind farm and a North Sea interconnect at that same time also makes sense.
Similarly a pan European grid, and very large scale solar in Southern Europe / North Africa.
The capital cost of building a new, renewables dominated grid is very big, and it's going to create a lot of problems along the way. Once it's there, the running costs will be much lower.
Mike Smithson is the coolest cat in town ....
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000162-3136-d513-a767-ffbf3e740000
So, suing to enforce a non disclosure agreement, he makes the disclosure himself.
I guess that might free up Ms Daniels to say more ?
The marginal additional cost would be insignificant on the cost of the house for the new purchaser and the economies of scale would make it a hell of a lot cheaper for the developers.
I know there would be an argument about what sort of panelling to use but that could either be left to the developer or decided by the local councils and/or central goverment after advice.
Con 320 (+2)
Lab 260 (-2)
LD 8 (-4)
SNP 39 (+4)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=42&LAB=40&LIB=6&UKIP=4&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
I have big issues (I could just leave that sentence there) with many of the blown insulation and solar panel retrofitting onto existing housing. In many cases I fear many owners will face consequences in coming years.
I have less issues with solar panels being added to new housing stock, where the house can be designed appropriately for them. However I would point out that the building companies are not exactly 'good' at building to regs as things stand ...
"Miami bridge: Meeting over crack held hours before collapse"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43440501
with hindsight, it may have made sense to close the road below ...
The only issue I can see would be the speed of development and the fact whatever we put on houses now might be horribly redundant in a few years. But that would be an excuse for not doing anything ever so I think it would be a risk worth taking.
Good evening, everybody.
It's like saying the Conservatives aren't going to win any more seats in Surrey on these numbers.
Demand for the grid would still spike in the winter and all those houses will be needing their energy which has to come from somewhere and it won't be the solar.
Wind on the other hand we have plenty of.
It's poor value for money currently otherwise the market would be doing it more already. Plus the technology isn't there yet. The solar industry is improving at compound rates currently thanks primarily to research in states which rely more on air conditioning: In a few years time if and when Tesla roof and battery technology is streamlined and affordable then it would make more sense.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Rashid_Al_Maktoum_Solar_Park
All of those again are things that you do when you are at home. Which is more likely to be in the evening or in the dark when again grid demand is at its lowest and solar is less productive or unproductive. Without battery storage when the sun shines on your home in the daytime if you're out and not using much electricity then you either waste the electricity generated or need to get it into the grid which isn't especially economical either.
Edit: in the interest of balance, I have to say that I am not comfortable with leaving machines to wash and/or dry stuff when the house is empty, because fire.
A cold climate like the UK should look more towards hydro electric and tidal renewables which are reliable on peak demand days. Oh, and Northern Europe needs to get fracking, unless they like relying on the bear who’s currently staggering around holding an empty vodka bottle.
Or possibly all MOE and no real change in 9 months
Furthermore, what will also be interesting to see how the voting patterns change with the changing ethnicity of the borough. It seems to be conventional wisdom that the more immigrants there are in a borough, the better Labour performs.
But what about the Far-Right? Do they tend to perform better as well (relatively speaking)? That is an interesting question indeed.
P. S., I am a new blogger and I blog about Politics, Economics and Society. I would greatly appreciate if you checked out my blog: http://www.kyleknox.co.uk
I have seen similar in other places locally.
My friends used to own a house with a solar system in the US, but it was passive water, not electrical at all.
I also saw something recently that said a lot of the offshore wind mechanics need replaced already. Very short lifespan.
Tidal is great - not least because it's predictable - but it is far from sufficient.
These tidal lagoons could produce just as merrily in the windless Doldrums, so long as the range between high and low tides is sufficenty large.
And we trust them to elect governments...
A decade from now, all new homes will be made with solar roofs.
My coat? So soon in the evening?