politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man
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F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.0
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As a denizen of academia, I can promise you you are right about that. Giving credit for what you borrow is basic good manners, though.alex. said:
I don’t think academia views Wikipedia as a legitimate “source”. And facts are facts, they don’t require accreditation.Ishmael_Z said:
A proper scientist would give the credit (needn't be a full reference); and it does raise the question how much else of his material is lifted off the internet.williamglenn said:
You’ve “had enough of experts” who don’t attach a list of references to every tweet?Ishmael_Z said:
It's the "without credit" bit which is the killer.CarlottaVance said:
Why? Did he have to 'draw his own' to be 'an expert'?Ishmael_Z said:The diagrams in 3 are lifted straight from wikipedia, (page on Novichok agent) without credit which pretty much puts to bed any claim of genuine expertise.
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you mean like the seven point lead last week from the pollster that got closest at the last election?BannedInParis said:
This is my complete lack of surprise.williamglenn said:First like the Tories.
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/974406839931686913?s=21
Corbyn is terrible at 'day to day' politics and he will continue to make these sorts of mistakes and foul-ups. Maybe he doesn't care for it. Maybe he is just as talentless as he sometimes appears.
But, in the absence of an election, it will be a slow, but steady, drift downwards.
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Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
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That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
Those with titles are rarely dull ....Morris_Dancer said:F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.
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I said "without credit."logical_song said:
Are you ruling out use of anything that is "lifted off the Internet"?Ishmael_Z said:
A proper scientist would give the credit (needn't be a full reference); and it does raise the question how much else of his material is lifted off the internet.williamglenn said:
You’ve “had enough of experts” who don’t attach a list of references to every tweet?Ishmael_Z said:
It's the "without credit" bit which is the killer.CarlottaVance said:
Why? Did he have to 'draw his own' to be 'an expert'?Ishmael_Z said:The diagrams in 3 are lifted straight from wikipedia, (page on Novichok agent) without credit which pretty much puts to bed any claim of genuine expertise.
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Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too0 -
Quite right . Also worth noting that Corbyn got over 40 last time despite polling significantly lower. Shy Corbynites.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
I am not senile and you do not win arguments by being offensive. Disagree by all means but your whole tone is one of abject panic that Corbyn has been found out.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).
And it was not me giving TM flowers in Salisbury, applauding her, and World leaders joining her in condemning Putin.
You think this is going to pass soon but this is not going away anytime soon0 -
It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).0 -
An incident like this is actually more difficult for a LotO to get right, than for a PM. They have to get out of the mindset of opposing the government, and instead support it.alex. said:
Key point - if he has (genuine) doubts, get friendly backbenchers to raise them. That is what backbenchers are for. There are times when it is necessary for the Opposition to back the Govt publicly (and raise doubts in private)Jonathan said:
Corbyn has to look prime ministerial at these moments to stand a chance of winning. He has not inspired confidence this week . He made two mistakes. Firstly making party political points at a moment of national crisis. Secondly taking a position helpful to the Kremlin at a time when the government's diplomatic position was fragile.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
We need him to hold the government to account, but timing and tone is important . He could have done it without the two big errors above.
Of course it’s more difficult for Corbyn than most other LotO, because deep down he’s at best ambivalent to Russia deploying chemical weapons on English soil.0 -
I don't think that's corbyn's problem. I believe a lot of people would like to vote for him. His instincts are attractive to lefties. He just looks so old fashined. No one who was alive then really wants to go back to the 70's but that's all he seems to be offering.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).0 -
Mr. W, those who have five titles and gain them (mostly) easily are 0
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Great news for your Bottas e/w bet thoughMorris_Dancer said:F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.
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As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.HYUFD said:
Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too0 -
Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.0
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Corbyn actually slightly underperformed the final Survation rating for Labour thoughJonathan said:
Quite right . Also worth noting that Corbyn got over 40 last time despite polling significantly lower. Shy Corbynites.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
The Sky data polls yesterday were poor for Corbyn with only 18% trusting him to deal with the crisisHYUFD said:
Nonetheless it is a small but significant shift.JWisemann said:Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.
We await other polls to confirm agreed0 -
Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucialAlastairMeeks said:
As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.HYUFD said:
Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too0 -
Kudos on use of 'tergiversations'. An under used word.Ishmael_Z said:
A strikingly bad point, when you look at the tergiversations the Labour government went through to avoid an Iraq inquiry: when you suppress evidence there is a legitimate presumption that it's against you. And anyway, Chilcot looks like evidence to me.CarlottaVance said:0 -
A leaver and historically very loyal, for what that is worth.SouthamObserver said:This looks like a pretty big deal. Andrew Murrison is a Leave backer and the NIAC has three DUP MPs sitting on it:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/northern-ireland-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2017/ni-land-border-report-publication-17-19/0 -
Were they British citizens?Sean_F said:
It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).0 -
Yes, the vast majority of 2017 Labour voters ie over 90% are still backing Labour but that is not enough for Corbyn to become PM and if just 1% of 2017 Labour voters have switched to the Tories that could be enough for a small Tory majority given the Tories only need to gain 8 seats to obtain that majorityBig_G_NorthWales said:
The Sky data polls yesterday were poor for Corbyn with only 18% trusting him to deal with the crisisHYUFD said:
Nonetheless it is a small but significant shift.JWisemann said:Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.
We await other polls to confirm agreed0 -
That depends on where the tories end up.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
Mothers of the multi-titled nobility might disagree that childbirth is easy ....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, those who have five titles and gain them (mostly) easily are
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Well the Rozzer certainly is.Roger said:
Were they British citizens?Sean_F said:
It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).0 -
Which given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes will almost certainly be at least around 40% as things stand (today's Yougov has the Tories on 42%), hence Corbyn has to get over that 40% mark and start to win over 2017 Tory voters to get to Downing Streetkle4 said:
That depends on where the tories end up.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM0 -
I do agree with Alastair on this. There is no certainty about the future and predictions are not flexible enough to account for an ever changing political climate.HYUFD said:
Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucialAlastairMeeks said:
As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.HYUFD said:
Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
Who would have predicted two weeks ago that Corbyn would fail so spectacularly on his first foreign affairs crisis0 -
Two of the theee in still hospital are British. The daughter is Russian.Roger said:
Were they British citizens?Sean_F said:
It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.JWisemann said:His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.
The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.
I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).
The other 30 ish people treated for exposure to the chemical weapon we don’t know about, but appear to mainly be emergency services and hospital workers.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, though I should've put (relatively) more on that and less on Alonso. Still, hindsight, etc.0
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NEW THREAD
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There is certainty around the fact that Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM in the current climate unless there is a third party revival.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do agree with Alastair on this. There is no certainty about the future and predictions are not flexible enough to account for an ever changing political climate.HYUFD said:
Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucialAlastairMeeks said:
As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.HYUFD said:
Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.AlastairMeeks said:
That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.HYUFD said:
Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.JWisemann said:This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.
Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
Who would have predicted two weeks ago that Corbyn would fail so spectacularly on his first foreign affairs crisis
No party leader has become PM on under 40% since WW2 without either the LDs or UKIP getting well over 10% of the vote0 -
"I brought your favourite treat/a present from Moscow with me - let's share it/open it now"tlg86 said:
Doesn't make sense, does it?JackW said:
If the nerve gas was borne in the daughters suitcase what are the logistics of both daughter and father being taken ill at the same time on the park bench?Foxy said:
Perhaps the target was really the daughter, and for her to die in Russia like the son. No investigation then.CarlottaVance said:0
