Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came with 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
switched allegiance? or blogging from a phone...
UKIP 4/5
Lab 6/4
Con 4/1
Grn 100/1
LD 100/1
The fact that UKIP are FAV in itself tells a story.
By the way, both Grn and LD are far too short at 100/1. 500/1 would be more like it.
Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?
FOREST HEATH - Market RESULT (CON HOLD)
Con 266
UKIP 263
Best prices - UKIP To Win A By-Election Before The Next General Election
No 2/5 (PP)
Yes 7/2 (Hills)
If you could get decent stakes on then you could back both and still make a profit.
"Apparently"
It'd be good to see the reality behind this. If he was investigated for the wording on the decoration, then that is bang out of order.
But the text itself is really rather pathetic. Can you imagine how someone who is a perfectly law-abiding and worthy immigrant might feel when faced with such sentiment?
I too remember the fervour for the SDP in the early 80s. It was 50 times greater than the fervour for UKIP now (which is not so much a fervour, but more a constant background hum).
My elder sister was one of the voters swept up in that, and I think she voted SDP/LD for several years thereafter.
Funnily enough, that was just the period when my own political views were also forming, but I was never very attracted by the SDP. I slowly came round to the SNP way of thinking, and that was at a very low point for the party: they only got 11.8% at the 1983 UK GE. I joined during that parliament.
If UKIP don't win some Westminster seats, and soon, then their goose is cooked.
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 19th December - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -25
However, their impact on the Tories remains the X Factor. Too many people seem to forget that FPTP means the national percentage of vote is essentially irrelevant, its how many votes you get per seat. And this is where PB Tories seem to get confused. In a 4 party system the winning margin will be smaller as votes fragment. And its the performance of the insurgent party in key seats that will define the election. And from all the marginal polls and from various parliamentary and local by elections its clear that UKIP threaten Tory seats locally.
Yes they appear badly organised with poor discipline, yet their supporters don't seem to care. Why? Because they are sick of identikit politicians who could all fit in the same party (BlairCleggCameron) and want something different.
What you mean is that the SDP were very similar to *** today's *** LD and Labour parties. But back in the early 80s the Libs were still pot-smoking, sandal-wearing hippies and Labour were slightly to the left of Erich Honecker.
*innocent face*
The ward ought to be an easy Ind Hold, but historically, and in relatively recent times, the Black Isle has been a Lib Dem stronghold, so will be interesting to watch their vote.
2012 - Ind 1130/677/240/212, LD 646, SNP 610, Grn 292, Lab 216, Con 141, SCP 57
2007 - Ind 1233/985/433, LD 973, SNP 558, Con 408, Grn 267, Lab 192
The local MP is Charlie Kennedy.
Labour have drifted downwards in terms of support with only Miliband's conference speech to point to as a success. Even that was perhaps more of a short term triumph than a long term achievement and has fed a perception that economics really is not his strong suit. Ed Miliband has in general got much better at PMQs but is still capable of having a very off week.
The tories have recovered somewhat from the 2012 budget shambles but have been a long way from setting the heather on fire. Given the incoherence of the opposition they really should be doing better at getting their message across but in the health service, education, benefit reform and immigration they seem to be constantly on the back foot and struggling to be heard. Only Osborne, surely the come back politician of the year, has really got his message over clearly and won public support for it. A majority saying that cuts are good for the economy was a good way to sign off the year.
The Lib Dems are showing, despite their success in Eastleigh, no movement at all from what threatens to be close to an extinction event in 2015. Personally I think they are making a mistake with their differentiation policy and would be better off pushing their positive contribution to the Coalition.
Even the SNP government has really struggled this year after a very good 2012 with the "white paper" being a very damp squib and virtually no movement on independence. Been a difficult year for Eck on expenses too.
Lib Dems only ones to topple a Con last night?
Doesn't really fit with the narrative on UKIP or LDs......last night anyway.
I'm currently reading the fourth volume of Henry Mayhew's "London labour and the London poor; a cyclopaedia of the condition and earnings of those that will work, those that cannot work, and those that will not work"
He and his collaborators wrote four volumes detailing the state of London's population in sometimes fascinating detail. There is even many pages on "Of prostitution amongst the Afghans", which is followed by the same about Kasmir.
Another section is "A ramble among the thieves' dens in the Borough".
All four books are a fascinating examination of life in the Victorian metropolis, including statistics. They are free to download.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Labour_and_the_London_Poor
"I too remember the fervour for the SDP in the early 80s. It was 50 times greater than the fervour for UKIP now (which is not so much a fervour, but more a constant background hum)."
----------------
Yes the Hum; which will gain strength, and will be the noise that people hear, all the way to the GE in 2015. However, even I must concede that UKIP have to do VERY WELL in May 2014 for that to happen.
Very quiet on the roads and in the office this morning... is there something happening I should know about ?
Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in
#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%
Channel4 went looking and found an engaging Romany. His captioned comment @2.35 is interesting. And Romany behaviour is very visible.
Journalists are tee'd up to look next year, and they're going to have an easy job, if they want, with pictures (and interviews with Joe Public) portraying a problem.
LibLabCon are going to be on the defensive.
Welcome to the site, Mr. James. Hope Sussex is a bit warmer than Yorkshire this morning.
Who was the chap honoured by the Russians on the previous thread?
http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction
UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148
Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Morley and Outwood West Yorkshire CON gain from LAB : Ed Balls
Only 2 UKIP gains from CON...
The new arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania - and I'm sure there will be lots - will be disproportionately made up of respectable immigrants who want to get on in life (in other words, exactly the people we want as immigrants).
UKIP seem to think that the reality of a new influx is a one way street for them. It's not. If new arrivals settle in well, they might find themselves looking like the reactionary fools that they are.
climate change bill = economic suicide bill
Always interesting to extrapolate though ;p
That doesn't imply a high regard for your voter base
David Blunkett doesn't like 'em either (For a Labour view)
Fwiw I know some Bulgarians and they are all v nice people.
Eggborough Power Station (a coal plant) will probably end up closing. It provides circa 4% of the UK's energy and, incredibly, can even do so on days that aren't very windy. Taxes on coal are going up very sharply in the next few years, so they sought to shift to biomass (burning wood pellets, apparently) as Drax, a neighbouring station, has already done. Unlike Drax, there will be no government funding to help this, despite the station having 90% of its fuel (presumably for a year's burning) already in place and being 'shovel ready'.
This isn't a party political issue. I suspect Miliband is the worst of the lot, followed by the simpleton Davey, but Cameron deserves a lot of the blame for this too. Going for off-shore wind instead of coal is mental. Climate change (global warming for those that didn't catch the rebranding memo) has never been proven, let alone beyond doubt, and temperatures have plateaued for bloody ages.
Yet we're still pandering to it. It's as if some of those who believe see the lack of evidence as a test of faith rather than a strong suggestion the theory's plain wrong. The only remotely credible pro-warming information I've seen in recent years has been a few clever chaps I know (some here) who either believe it or think it's possible.
"about the chances of a further influx of Roma. For what it's worth, I think he's probably right. "
Reading a little more widely..
http://www.channel4.com/news/immigration-roma-migrants-bulgaria-romania-slovakia-uk
"In 2011, the government said it believed "relatively few Roma citizens" lived in the UK, but it is now thought Britain has one of the biggest Roma populations in western Europe.
It didn't happen suddenly, it was a trickling process. It kept going and going and more and more people arrived."
AND
"The figures come from a major new study by researchers at the University of Salford, which concluded the migrant Roma population in Britain was "significant", "increasing", and that 200,000 was almost certainly a "conservative estimate.""
LD/Lab have let it go through the Commons by abstaining to try and defuse the potential political benefit to the Tories of this becoming law. They did this in the belief that they could run it out of time through filibusters or could kill it in the Lords (where there is no government majority).
Using the Parliament Act (and I wonder if it is groundbreaking that it is used for a non-government Bill) shoots that particular fox. If Lab/LD let it go through the HoC again then they can't block it in the Lords. But to stop it in the HoC they need to stand up and vote against giving the people a say on Europe.*
The only weasel way out I can spot is - IIRC (again I can't be arsed to check) - is that the new Bill needs to pass through the Commons in *exactly* the same form as the old Bill for the parliament. Hence perhaps the opponents of the Bill could support an amendment that changes the date of the Referendum by, say, 1 month to prevent the PA being used.
* (From recollection, but would need to check, it is entirely up to the sponsor of the Bill - or may be the government - whether it is introduced under the aegis of the Parliament Act. So there is no "process" vote on whether it is a PA bill or not)
It makes wind power look positively sane (which it is, in some cases).
And what would happen to Red Ed's price freeze in that scenario?
Even without his Marxist madness this is utterly crazy. We're on the verge of closing a power station on the basis of ideology, hiking prices and reducing both available energy and energy security.
Cameron would do better to do an about turn on his own 'green' views and to appoint a horse as Energy Secretary instead of the imbecile presently occupying the office.
Lab types who would never dream of voting for the blues being attracted by he populist anti immigration and "screw them all" rhetoric, as well as the disaffected Tories wanting to get a vote on the EU etc.
Quite how much of this will last once the GE proper comes around i'm not sure, but my guess is not enough for any GE gains by UKIP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.
* Please no smartarse comments from engineers telling me why that wouldn't work
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23334466
Shipping biomass material (some of it of dubious heritage) around the world, when it is only green if the suppliers plant replacements - and then only decades after the plants reach maturity - is madness.
But as always, care needs taking. Some biomass is brilliant - for instance the Thames Water "poo-power" plants, or the one that burns pig slurry and farm waste (from memory). Although these are all relatively small scale, in the order of 1-30 MW.
There are great problems with just removing green levies, and the anti-green people should acknowledge this. It is the reason the biomass subsidies will only be removed in 2027, rather than immediately.
The whole thing is a mess, and Miliband's Madness has just made it a whole lot worse.
I'm sure a UKIP MP will calm Tory MPs.
My expected top 4 are City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10529624/Business-news-and-markets-live.html
Now remind me what Ed Balls has been saying for two or three years....
Mr. Eagles, you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Edit and Putin comparing Stalin to that great Englishman, Olly Cromwell.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scipio-Africanus-Greater-Than-Napoleon/dp/0306813637/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1387530341&sr=8-1&keywords=scipio+napoleon
I still haven't made much progress with the first part of Dodge's biography of Napoleon. From the comments the author has made it sounds like Napoleon did incredibly well, then got cocky and buggered it all up.
Napoleon cannot possibly match the likes of Alexander, Hannibal or Scipio.
Come GE2015 there will be 650 seats. By elections ? 7 maybe on average ?
And they could be in very safe Labour/Tory seats. OK So if one pops up in Boston then UKIP may well be favourites, but one could just as easily pop up in hmm Portsmouth South? which should be a Lib Dem hold. Or Redcar which Labour will win. Or.. or indeed.
Ind 529 Con 219 Lib Dem 148 UKIP 138
A couple of minor results
Frome TC College ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative
Winsford TC Lib Dem gain from Labour
Camborne TC Treswithian ward 2 seats 1 Con hold 1 Lab hold Lab 168 Con 154 MK 127 Ind 120 MK 109
My lovely wife gave me a new car DAB stereo for my birthday. And as a result my journeys to work are significantly improved. I'm not generally a fan of commercial radio at all, but Planet Rock is just amazing. And their iPhone app is good too.
\m/^_^\m/
Does Alice Cooper still have his show in the evenings?
Never march on Moscow. As Herr Hitler also found out.
French Military history in a nutshell
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/text/france.html
Amusing link, though.
Disappointing!
I have just noted that strong UKIP target Louth and Horncastle has an MP who is 83 years old. If there was a by-election here then UKIP would be extremely strong.
Luckily William Hill has the other side of the UKIP value equation. They are 7/2 for UKIP to win a by-election.
Advice is to take the 2/5 at Paddy Power for 5 units and Hills at 7/2 for 1.35 units creating a risk free return on the No side at 9%.
Lab 1/6
Con 7/2
UKIP 16/1
LD 100/1
"Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without an accordion. All you do is leave behind a lot of noisy baggage."
:-)
It's also been suggested somewhere that the British won the American War of Independence, since it was British (indeed largely English) colonists fighting Hanoverian mercenaries
I won't be retiring to Rio on the proceeds though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnHKv2G0wCw