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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came with 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle.

Read the full story here

dugarbandier

"third party in terms of votes but we’re miles behind in seats. "

switched allegiance? or blogging from a phone...

Stuart_Dickson

Paddy Power - Euro2014 - Most seats

UKIP 4/5
Lab 6/4
Con 4/1
Grn 100/1
LD 100/1

The fact that UKIP are FAV in itself tells a story.

By the way, both Grn and LD are far too short at 100/1. 500/1 would be more like it.

MikeSmithson

dugarbandier said:

"third party in terms of votes but we’re miles behind in seats. "

switched allegiance? or blogging from a phone...

THe latter. The curse of word completion

Scrapheap_as_was

Not checked the results yet, did the Blues lose any?

MikeSmithson

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Not checked the results yet, did the Blues lose any?

The Tories lost a County Council seat in Lincs to the LDs

MikeK

Apparently the guy who put up this Christmas poster was investigated by Eastleigh police. pic.twitter.com/QIDaqUs9Qs

— Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) December 20, 2013

Easterross

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

MikeK

The seats will come. If not for 5 spoiled ballot papers UKIP would have won here last night.

FOREST HEATH - Market RESULT (CON HOLD)
Con 266
UKIP 263

Stuart_Dickson

- "But what would really make 2014 for the purples is a Westminster by-election victory."

Best prices - UKIP To Win A By-Election Before The Next General Election

No 2/5 (PP)
Yes 7/2 (Hills)

If you could get decent stakes on then you could back both and still make a profit.

MikeK

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

Ah, but Easterross, the SDP were only another socialist party, for all their gains. Not very different from Labour or the Libs at the time. UKIP is a completely different kettle of fish.

JosiasJessop

MikeK said:

Apparently the guy who put up this Christmas poster was investigated by Eastleigh police. pic.twitter.com/QIDaqUs9Qs

— Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) December 20, 2013

"Apparently"

It'd be good to see the reality behind this. If he was investigated for the wording on the decoration, then that is bang out of order.

But the text itself is really rather pathetic. Can you imagine how someone who is a perfectly law-abiding and worthy immigrant might feel when faced with such sentiment?

Stuart_Dickson

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

Agreed.

I too remember the fervour for the SDP in the early 80s. It was 50 times greater than the fervour for UKIP now (which is not so much a fervour, but more a constant background hum).

My elder sister was one of the voters swept up in that, and I think she voted SDP/LD for several years thereafter.

Funnily enough, that was just the period when my own political views were also forming, but I was never very attracted by the SDP. I slowly came round to the SNP way of thinking, and that was at a very low point for the party: they only got 11.8% at the 1983 UK GE. I joined during that parliament.

If UKIP don't win some Westminster seats, and soon, then their goose is cooked.

Financier

FWIW

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 19th December - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -25

RobD

MikeK said:

The seats will come. If not for 5 spoiled ballot papers UKIP would have won here last night.

FOREST HEATH - Market RESULT (CON HOLD)
Con 266
UKIP 263

I might be tired, but I don't follow your logic there.

RochdalePioneers

Like them or not, you can't deny with any credibility that UKIP are here and aren't about to melt away. Their influence on Tory policy and strategy is palpable, and their ability win votes across the spectrum is clear.

However, their impact on the Tories remains the X Factor. Too many people seem to forget that FPTP means the national percentage of vote is essentially irrelevant, its how many votes you get per seat. And this is where PB Tories seem to get confused. In a 4 party system the winning margin will be smaller as votes fragment. And its the performance of the insurgent party in key seats that will define the election. And from all the marginal polls and from various parliamentary and local by elections its clear that UKIP threaten Tory seats locally.

Yes they appear badly organised with poor discipline, yet their supporters don't seem to care. Why? Because they are sick of identikit politicians who could all fit in the same party (BlairCleggCameron) and want something different.

Stuart_Dickson

MikeK said:

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

Ah, but Easterross, the SDP were only another socialist party, for all their gains. Not very different from Labour or the Libs at the time. UKIP is a completely different kettle of fish.

I disagree. The SDP were very different from both the Liberal Party and from that Labour Party.

What you mean is that the SDP were very similar to *** today's *** LD and Labour parties. But back in the early 80s the Libs were still pot-smoking, sandal-wearing hippies and Labour were slightly to the left of Erich Honecker.

Millsy

How many of yesterday's by-elections did Ukip win?

*innocent face*

SussexJames

Forest Heath is in Suffolk, not West Sussex. Gave me a shock when I saw that 'came within 3' comment before checking the Mid Sussex and West Sussex results directly.

Stuart_Dickson

For anyone interested in the Black Isle ward of Highland Council (IND defence), the counting is taking place in Fortrose this morning, so should be published soon.

The ward ought to be an easy Ind Hold, but historically, and in relatively recent times, the Black Isle has been a Lib Dem stronghold, so will be interesting to watch their vote.

2012 - Ind 1130/677/240/212, LD 646, SNP 610, Grn 292, Lab 216, Con 141, SCP 57
2007 - Ind 1233/985/433, LD 973, SNP 558, Con 408, Grn 267, Lab 192

The local MP is Charlie Kennedy.

DavidL

I would agree that despite a fairly disastrous conference UKIP have had the best year of the political parties. But it is not much of a field is it?

Labour have drifted downwards in terms of support with only Miliband's conference speech to point to as a success. Even that was perhaps more of a short term triumph than a long term achievement and has fed a perception that economics really is not his strong suit. Ed Miliband has in general got much better at PMQs but is still capable of having a very off week.

The tories have recovered somewhat from the 2012 budget shambles but have been a long way from setting the heather on fire. Given the incoherence of the opposition they really should be doing better at getting their message across but in the health service, education, benefit reform and immigration they seem to be constantly on the back foot and struggling to be heard. Only Osborne, surely the come back politician of the year, has really got his message over clearly and won public support for it. A majority saying that cuts are good for the economy was a good way to sign off the year.

The Lib Dems are showing, despite their success in Eastleigh, no movement at all from what threatens to be close to an extinction event in 2015. Personally I think they are making a mistake with their differentiation policy and would be better off pushing their positive contribution to the Coalition.

Even the SNP government has really struggled this year after a very good 2012 with the "white paper" being a very damp squib and virtually no movement on independence. Been a difficult year for Eck on expenses too.

Stuart_Dickson

By the way, the Scottish Elections website linked to in the previous post seems to be defunct.

Jonathan

UKIP have had a good year hoovering up the disaffected and protest votes that would have gone elsewhere. Look set to have a good Euros. But like protest vote vehicles, no sign that they are building up to make an impact in GE2015.

Scrapheap_as_was

MikeK said:

The seats will come. If not for 5 spoiled ballot papers UKIP would have won here last night.

FOREST HEATH - Market RESULT (CON HOLD)
Con 266
UKIP 263

So even when only 2 parties - the anti Tory/protest vote just not enough.
Lib Dems only ones to topple a Con last night?

Doesn't really fit with the narrative on UKIP or LDs......last night anyway.

[Deleted User]

I see a couple of articles highlighting Dave's plan to push the EU Referendum act through using the Parliament Act before the GE. Fine plan - but does he have the votes? Surely there is no majority for this in the Commons if the Yellow Peril don't want to play ball?

malcolmg

DavidL said:

I would agree that despite a fairly disastrous conference UKIP have had the best year of the political parties. But it is not much of a field is it?

Labour have drifted downwards in terms of support with only Miliband's conference speech to point to as a success. Even that was perhaps more of a short term triumph than a long term achievement and has fed a perception that economics really is not his strong suit. Ed Miliband has in general got much better at PMQs but is still capable of having a very off week.

The tories have recovered somewhat from the 2012 budget shambles but have been a long way from setting the heather on fire. Given the incoherence of the opposition they really should be doing better at getting their message across but in the health service, education, benefit reform and immigration they seem to be constantly on the back foot and struggling to be heard. Only Osborne, surely the come back politician of the year, has really got his message over clearly and won public support for it. A majority saying that cuts are good for the economy was a good way to sign off the year.

The Lib Dems are showing, despite their success in Eastleigh, no movement at all from what threatens to be close to an extinction event in 2015. Personally I think they are making a mistake with their differentiation policy and would be better off pushing their positive contribution to the Coalition.

Even the SNP government has really struggled this year after a very good 2012 with the "white paper" being a very damp squib and virtually no movement on independence. Been a difficult year for Eck on expenses too.

David , you seem to live in a parallel universe, if you live in Scotland you must be going about with your head stuck up your ****

JosiasJessop

Very off-topic:

I'm currently reading the fourth volume of Henry Mayhew's "London labour and the London poor; a cyclopaedia of the condition and earnings of those that will work, those that cannot work, and those that will not work"

He and his collaborators wrote four volumes detailing the state of London's population in sometimes fascinating detail. There is even many pages on "Of prostitution amongst the Afghans", which is followed by the same about Kasmir.

Another section is "A ramble among the thieves' dens in the Borough".

All four books are a fascinating examination of life in the Victorian metropolis, including statistics. They are free to download.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Labour_and_the_London_Poor

MikeK

@Stuart_Dickson
"I too remember the fervour for the SDP in the early 80s. It was 50 times greater than the fervour for UKIP now (which is not so much a fervour, but more a constant background hum)."
----------------

Yes the Hum; which will gain strength, and will be the noise that people hear, all the way to the GE in 2015. However, even I must concede that UKIP have to do VERY WELL in May 2014 for that to happen.

DaemonBarber

UKIP will be in the mix for most seats next year, but I doubt that even the best of results in the euros will result in a single Westminster seat. in 2015.

Very quiet on the roads and in the office this morning... is there something happening I should know about ?

MikeK

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

shiney2

http://www.channel4.com/news/romanian-roma-immigrants-london-streets-video

Channel4 went looking and found an engaging Romany. His captioned comment @2.35 is interesting. And Romany behaviour is very visible.

Journalists are tee'd up to look next year, and they're going to have an easy job, if they want, with pictures (and interviews with Joe Public) portraying a problem.

LibLabCon are going to be on the defensive.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Welcome to the site, Mr. James. Hope Sussex is a bit warmer than Yorkshire this morning.

Who was the chap honoured by the Russians on the previous thread?

Easterross

Stuart_Dickson said:

For anyone interested in the Black Isle ward of Highland Council (IND defence), the counting is taking place in Fortrose this morning, so should be published soon.

The ward ought to be an easy Ind Hold, but historically, and in relatively recent times, the Black Isle has been a Lib Dem stronghold, so will be interesting to watch their vote.

2012 - Ind 1130/677/240/212, LD 646, SNP 610, Grn 292, Lab 216, Con 141, SCP 57
2007 - Ind 1233/985/433, LD 973, SNP 558, Con 408, Grn 267, Lab 192

The local MP is Charlie Kennedy.

I would be surprised if Billy Barclay's widow doesn't easily win the seat. He was a very popular local farmer and councillor and she is well liked.

Scrapheap_as_was

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

Scrapheap_as_was

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

I would agree that despite a fairly disastrous conference UKIP have had the best year of the political parties. But it is not much of a field is it?

Labour have drifted downwards in terms of support with only Miliband's conference speech to point to as a success. Even that was perhaps more of a short term triumph than a long term achievement and has fed a perception that economics really is not his strong suit. Ed Miliband has in general got much better at PMQs but is still capable of having a very off week.

The tories have recovered somewhat from the 2012 budget shambles but have been a long way from setting the heather on fire. Given the incoherence of the opposition they really should be doing better at getting their message across but in the health service, education, benefit reform and immigration they seem to be constantly on the back foot and struggling to be heard. Only Osborne, surely the come back politician of the year, has really got his message over clearly and won public support for it. A majority saying that cuts are good for the economy was a good way to sign off the year.

The Lib Dems are showing, despite their success in Eastleigh, no movement at all from what threatens to be close to an extinction event in 2015. Personally I think they are making a mistake with their differentiation policy and would be better off pushing their positive contribution to the Coalition.

Even the SNP government has really struggled this year after a very good 2012 with the "white paper" being a very damp squib and virtually no movement on independence. Been a difficult year for Eck on expenses too.

David , you seem to live in a parallel universe, if you live in Scotland you must be going about with your head stuck up your ****

there's no arguing with fact-based rebuttals like that.

Pulpstar

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Morley and Outwood West Yorkshire CON gain from LAB : Ed Balls

Only 2 UKIP gains from CON...

DaemonBarber

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel

I know it's the festive season, but it's a bit early to be hitting the sauce isn't it?

AlastairMeeks

@shiney2 You should note what the interviewee said about the chances of a further influx of Roma. For what it's worth, I think he's probably right. Anyone who is coming here to operate in the black market isn't going to be too concerned about legalities and will already be here if they want to be, as the interviewee himself demonstrates.

The new arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania - and I'm sure there will be lots - will be disproportionately made up of respectable immigrants who want to get on in life (in other words, exactly the people we want as immigrants).

UKIP seem to think that the reality of a new influx is a one way street for them. It's not. If new arrivals settle in well, they might find themselves looking like the reactionary fools that they are.

Sean_F

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

As agains that, the Conservative and Labour constituency parties are empty shells, compared to 30 years ago.

MrJones

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

The SDP dropped because Labour changed their position.

Jonathan

Sean_F said:

Easterross said:

All this talk about a UKIP breakthrough reminds me of 1981-2 and the emergence of the SDP followed by the Alliance leading to the formation of the LibDems. They were led by politicians who were widely respected and household names. They won stunning by-election victories like Glasgow Hillhead and Crosby. What happened to them in 1983 and where are they now?

Yes a great deal of heat has centred round UKIP in 2013 which has otherwise been a pretty dull and event free political year. Let's see how they do when they face the full glare of the media spotlight and have to actually defend their Euro credentials and record in the EU parliament. Incidentally how many of their MEPs are still UKIP members?

As agains that, the Conservative and Labour constituency parties are empty shells, compared to 30 years ago.

That is an excellent point.

MrJones

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10528157/Hundreds-of-businesses-to-be-paid-to-switch-off-to-prevent-blackouts.html

climate change bill = economic suicide bill

Sean_F

MikeK said:

@Stuart_Dickson
"I too remember the fervour for the SDP in the early 80s. It was 50 times greater than the fervour for UKIP now (which is not so much a fervour, but more a constant background hum)."
----------------

Yes the Hum; which will gain strength, and will be the noise that people hear, all the way to the GE in 2015. However, even I must concede that UKIP have to do VERY WELL in May 2014 for that to happen.

I'd expect UKIP to win 25-30% in the Euros, and to grab quite a few council seats on the back of that.

malcolmg

Scrapheap_as_was said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

I would agree that despite a fairly disastrous conference UKIP have had the best year of the political parties. But it is not much of a field is it?

Labour have drifted downwards in terms of support with only Miliband's conference speech to point to as a success. Even that was perhaps more of a short term triumph than a long term achievement and has fed a perception that economics really is not his strong suit. Ed Miliband has in general got much better at PMQs but is still capable of having a very off week.

The tories have recovered somewhat from the 2012 budget shambles but have been a long way from setting the heather on fire. Given the incoherence of the opposition they really should be doing better at getting their message across but in the health service, education, benefit reform and immigration they seem to be constantly on the back foot and struggling to be heard. Only Osborne, surely the come back politician of the year, has really got his message over clearly and won public support for it. A majority saying that cuts are good for the economy was a good way to sign off the year.

The Lib Dems are showing, despite their success in Eastleigh, no movement at all from what threatens to be close to an extinction event in 2015. Personally I think they are making a mistake with their differentiation policy and would be better off pushing their positive contribution to the Coalition.

Even the SNP government has really struggled this year after a very good 2012 with the "white paper" being a very damp squib and virtually no movement on independence. Been a difficult year for Eck on expenses too.

David , you seem to live in a parallel universe, if you live in Scotland you must be going about with your head stuck up your ****

there's no arguing with fact-based rebuttals like that.

LOL, glad to be of service, hopefully it will make him think twice , extract his head and look around.

Pulpstar

DaemonBarber said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel

I know it's the festive season, but it's a bit early to be hitting the sauce isn't it?

^_____^

Always interesting to extrapolate though ;p

Charles

MikeK said:

The seats will come. If not for 5 spoiled ballot papers UKIP would have won here last night.

FOREST HEATH - Market RESULT (CON HOLD)
Con 266
UKIP 263

You're assuming that all 5 spoiled ballots were from UKIP voters?

That doesn't imply a high regard for your voter base

MrJones

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Morley and Outwood West Yorkshire CON gain from LAB : Ed Balls

Only 2 UKIP gains from CON...

ukip effect = tory first, labour worst - hence the spin on here

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

@shiney2 You should note what the interviewee said about the chances of a further influx of Roma. For what it's worth, I think he's probably right. Anyone who is coming here to operate in the black market isn't going to be too concerned about legalities and will already be here if they want to be, as the interviewee himself demonstrates.

The new arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania - and I'm sure there will be lots - will be disproportionately made up of respectable immigrants who want to get on in life (in other words, exactly the people we want as immigrants).

UKIP seem to think that the reality of a new influx is a one way street for them. It's not. If new arrivals settle in well, they might find themselves looking like the reactionary fools that they are.

The average man in the street thinks of gypsies and Roma when Romanians are mentioned. Also aren't they 7 times more likely to be criminals. It is a Daily Mail stat but I'm sure they'll find examples.

David Blunkett doesn't like 'em either (For a Labour view)

Fwiw I know some Bulgarians and they are all v nice people.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jones, quite. The climate change ideologues are wrecking energy in this country.

Eggborough Power Station (a coal plant) will probably end up closing. It provides circa 4% of the UK's energy and, incredibly, can even do so on days that aren't very windy. Taxes on coal are going up very sharply in the next few years, so they sought to shift to biomass (burning wood pellets, apparently) as Drax, a neighbouring station, has already done. Unlike Drax, there will be no government funding to help this, despite the station having 90% of its fuel (presumably for a year's burning) already in place and being 'shovel ready'.

This isn't a party political issue. I suspect Miliband is the worst of the lot, followed by the simpleton Davey, but Cameron deserves a lot of the blame for this too. Going for off-shore wind instead of coal is mental. Climate change (global warming for those that didn't catch the rebranding memo) has never been proven, let alone beyond doubt, and temperatures have plateaued for bloody ages.

Yet we're still pandering to it. It's as if some of those who believe see the lack of evidence as a test of faith rather than a strong suggestion the theory's plain wrong. The only remotely credible pro-warming information I've seen in recent years has been a few clever chaps I know (some here) who either believe it or think it's possible.

shiney2

@antif

"about the chances of a further influx of Roma. For what it's worth, I think he's probably right. "


Reading a little more widely..

http://www.channel4.com/news/immigration-roma-migrants-bulgaria-romania-slovakia-uk

"In 2011, the government said it believed "relatively few Roma citizens" lived in the UK, but it is now thought Britain has one of the biggest Roma populations in western Europe.

It didn't happen suddenly, it was a trickling process. It kept going and going and more and more people arrived."

AND

"The figures come from a major new study by researchers at the University of Salford, which concluded the migrant Roma population in Britain was "significant", "increasing", and that 200,000 was almost certainly a "conservative estimate.""

MrJones

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jones, quite. The climate change ideologues are wrecking energy in this country.

Eggborough Power Station (a coal plant) will probably end up closing. It provides circa 4% of the UK's energy and, incredibly, can even do so on days that aren't very windy. Taxes on coal are going up very sharply in the next few years, so they sought to shift to biomass (burning wood pellets, apparently) as Drax, a neighbouring station, has already done. Unlike Drax, there will be no government funding to help this, despite the station having 90% of its fuel (presumably for a year's burning) already in place and being 'shovel ready'.

This isn't a party political issue. I suspect Miliband is the worst of the lot, followed by the simpleton Davey, but Cameron deserves a lot of the blame for this too. Going for off-shore wind instead of coal is mental. Climate change (global warming for those that didn't catch the rebranding memo) has never been proven, let alone beyond doubt, and temperatures have plateaued for bloody ages.

Yet we're still pandering to it. It's as if some of those who believe see the lack of evidence as a test of faith rather than a strong suggestion the theory's plain wrong. The only remotely credible pro-warming information I've seen in recent years has been a few clever chaps I know (some here) who either believe it or think it's possible.

cultural hegemony ftw

Charles

Patrick said:

I see a couple of articles highlighting Dave's plan to push the EU Referendum act through using the Parliament Act before the GE. Fine plan - but does he have the votes? Surely there is no majority for this in the Commons if the Yellow Peril don't want to play ball?

Isn't that the point though?

LD/Lab have let it go through the Commons by abstaining to try and defuse the potential political benefit to the Tories of this becoming law. They did this in the belief that they could run it out of time through filibusters or could kill it in the Lords (where there is no government majority).

Using the Parliament Act (and I wonder if it is groundbreaking that it is used for a non-government Bill) shoots that particular fox. If Lab/LD let it go through the HoC again then they can't block it in the Lords. But to stop it in the HoC they need to stand up and vote against giving the people a say on Europe.*

The only weasel way out I can spot is - IIRC (again I can't be arsed to check) - is that the new Bill needs to pass through the Commons in *exactly* the same form as the old Bill for the parliament. Hence perhaps the opponents of the Bill could support an amendment that changes the date of the Referendum by, say, 1 month to prevent the PA being used.

* (From recollection, but would need to check, it is entirely up to the sponsor of the Bill - or may be the government - whether it is introduced under the aegis of the Parliament Act. So there is no "process" vote on whether it is a PA bill or not)

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jones, quite. The climate change ideologues are wrecking energy in this country.

Eggborough Power Station (a coal plant) will probably end up closing. It provides circa 4% of the UK's energy and, incredibly, can even do so on days that aren't very windy. Taxes on coal are going up very sharply in the next few years, so they sought to shift to biomass (burning wood pellets, apparently) as Drax, a neighbouring station, has already done. Unlike Drax, there will be no government funding to help this, despite the station having 90% of its fuel (presumably for a year's burning) already in place and being 'shovel ready'.

This isn't a party political issue. I suspect Miliband is the worst of the lot, followed by the simpleton Davey, but Cameron deserves a lot of the blame for this too. Going for off-shore wind instead of coal is mental. Climate change (global warming for those that didn't catch the rebranding memo) has never been proven, let alone beyond doubt, and temperatures have plateaued for bloody ages.

Yet we're still pandering to it. It's as if some of those who believe see the lack of evidence as a test of faith rather than a strong suggestion the theory's plain wrong. The only remotely credible pro-warming information I've seen in recent years has been a few clever chaps I know (some here) who either believe it or think it's possible.

Large-scale biomass is the biggest con out, and one that this government is rightly reining back on.

It makes wind power look positively sane (which it is, in some cases).

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, let's assume biomass is mad (I've heard that somewhere else, maybe another thread here), if that's so then Eggborough will close. One of the headlines on Google News on this is energy prices rising by 10% if that happens. Even allowing for newspaper hyperbole, that indicates a significant increase.

And what would happen to Red Ed's price freeze in that scenario?

Even without his Marxist madness this is utterly crazy. We're on the verge of closing a power station on the basis of ideology, hiking prices and reducing both available energy and energy security.

Cameron would do better to do an about turn on his own 'green' views and to appoint a horse as Energy Secretary instead of the imbecile presently occupying the office.

DaemonBarber

MrJones said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Morley and Outwood West Yorkshire CON gain from LAB : Ed Balls

Only 2 UKIP gains from CON...

ukip effect = tory first, labour worst - hence the spin on here

I think what we are seeing here is classic protest vote behavior.

Lab types who would never dream of voting for the blues being attracted by he populist anti immigration and "screw them all" rhetoric, as well as the disaffected Tories wanting to get a vote on the EU etc.

Quite how much of this will last once the GE proper comes around i'm not sure, but my guess is not enough for any GE gains by UKIP.

Charles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, let's assume biomass is mad (I've heard that somewhere else, maybe another thread here), if that's so then Eggborough will close. One of the headlines on Google News on this is energy prices rising by 10% if that happens. Even allowing for newspaper hyperbole, that indicates a significant increase.

And what would happen to Red Ed's price freeze in that scenario?

Even without his Marxist madness this is utterly crazy. We're on the verge of closing a power station on the basis of ideology, hiking prices and reducing both available energy and energy security.

Cameron would do better to do an about turn on his own 'green' views and to appoint a horse as Energy Secretary instead of the imbecile presently occupying the office.

You really think Cameron is as good and effective as Caligula?

anotherDave

Patrick said:

I see a couple of articles highlighting Dave's plan to push the EU Referendum act through using the Parliament Act before the GE. Fine plan - but does he have the votes? Surely there is no majority for this in the Commons if the Yellow Peril don't want to play ball?

The 2010 EU Referendum vote had enough non-Conservative Party supporters to get a Parliament Act vote thru. Assuming the parliamentary Conservative Party back it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

I made the same point here.

I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Charles, there's a question. What's madder: shutting a perfectly good power station for an ideology which is based on an unproven scientific theory, increasing energy prices by up to 10%; or having the Roman army make war on Neptune by collecting thousands of seashells from the coast of Gaul?

Charles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Charles, there's a question. What's madder: shutting a perfectly good power station for an ideology which is based on an unproven scientific theory, increasing energy prices by up to 10%; or having the Roman army make war on Neptune by collecting thousands of seashells from the coast of Gaul?

To be fair, at least you could crush the seashells and use them as the base layer for a highway or something*

* Please no smartarse comments from engineers telling me why that wouldn't work

TheScreamingEagles

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, let's assume biomass is mad (I've heard that somewhere else, maybe another thread here), if that's so then Eggborough will close. One of the headlines on Google News on this is energy prices rising by 10% if that happens. Even allowing for newspaper hyperbole, that indicates a significant increase.

And what would happen to Red Ed's price freeze in that scenario?

Even without his Marxist madness this is utterly crazy. We're on the verge of closing a power station on the basis of ideology, hiking prices and reducing both available energy and energy security.

Cameron would do better to do an about turn on his own 'green' views and to appoint a horse as Energy Secretary instead of the imbecile presently occupying the office.

You really think Cameron is as good and effective as Caligula?

Some fellow on the previous thread criticised Mr Dancer's grasp of history.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, let's assume biomass is mad (I've heard that somewhere else, maybe another thread here), if that's so then Eggborough will close. One of the headlines on Google News on this is energy prices rising by 10% if that happens. Even allowing for newspaper hyperbole, that indicates a significant increase.

And what would happen to Red Ed's price freeze in that scenario?

Even without his Marxist madness this is utterly crazy. We're on the verge of closing a power station on the basis of ideology, hiking prices and reducing both available energy and energy security.

Cameron would do better to do an about turn on his own 'green' views and to appoint a horse as Energy Secretary instead of the imbecile presently occupying the office.

More details on the biomass changes here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23334466

Shipping biomass material (some of it of dubious heritage) around the world, when it is only green if the suppliers plant replacements - and then only decades after the plants reach maturity - is madness.

But as always, care needs taking. Some biomass is brilliant - for instance the Thames Water "poo-power" plants, or the one that burns pig slurry and farm waste (from memory). Although these are all relatively small scale, in the order of 1-30 MW.

There are great problems with just removing green levies, and the anti-green people should acknowledge this. It is the reason the biomass subsidies will only be removed in 2027, rather than immediately.

The whole thing is a mess, and Miliband's Madness has just made it a whole lot worse.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, to be fair, I only know a little about a certain ancient period. Modern history isn't something with which I'm familiar.

JosiasJessop

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Charles, there's a question. What's madder: shutting a perfectly good power station for an ideology which is based on an unproven scientific theory, increasing energy prices by up to 10%; or having the Roman army make war on Neptune by collecting thousands of seashells from the coast of Gaul?

To be fair, at least you could crush the seashells and use them as the base layer for a highway or something*

* Please no smartarse comments from engineers telling me why that wouldn't work

That was actually done, and is still done to this day. I walked along a seashell track somewhere on the coast (Wales, I think). It was about half a mile inland. It would drain well, and would probably perform just as well as crushed limestone. Which essentially is what it is.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, UKIP desperately need a by-election in a favourable seat.

I'm sure a UKIP MP will calm Tory MPs.

DaemonBarber

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

I made the same point here.

I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.

Ahead of whom?

JackW

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

I made the same point here.

I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.

Ahead of whom?

Burnley ??

TheScreamingEagles

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

I made the same point here.

I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.

Ahead of whom?

Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle.

My expected top 4 are City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, to be fair, I only know a little about a certain ancient period. Modern history isn't something with which I'm familiar.

I don't mind educating you on Modern History like the way I have on earlier historical periods.

[Deleted User]

UK retains its AAA rating with S&P while the EU gets furhter downgraded:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10529624/Business-news-and-markets-live.html

Now remind me what Ed Balls has been saying for two or three years....

MrJones

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jones, quite. The climate change ideologues are wrecking energy in this country.

Eggborough Power Station (a coal plant) will probably end up closing. It provides circa 4% of the UK's energy and, incredibly, can even do so on days that aren't very windy. Taxes on coal are going up very sharply in the next few years, so they sought to shift to biomass (burning wood pellets, apparently) as Drax, a neighbouring station, has already done. Unlike Drax, there will be no government funding to help this, despite the station having 90% of its fuel (presumably for a year's burning) already in place and being 'shovel ready'.

This isn't a party political issue. I suspect Miliband is the worst of the lot, followed by the simpleton Davey, but Cameron deserves a lot of the blame for this too. Going for off-shore wind instead of coal is mental. Climate change (global warming for those that didn't catch the rebranding memo) has never been proven, let alone beyond doubt, and temperatures have plateaued for bloody ages.

Yet we're still pandering to it. It's as if some of those who believe see the lack of evidence as a test of faith rather than a strong suggestion the theory's plain wrong. The only remotely credible pro-warming information I've seen in recent years has been a few clever chaps I know (some here) who either believe it or think it's possible.

Large-scale biomass is the biggest con out, and one that this government is rightly reining back on.

It makes wind power look positively sane (which it is, in some cases).

If the government can't guarantee electricity to industry - not just cheap electricity or averagely priced electricity but any electricity at all - then that is economic suicide.

Morris_Dancer

Educating?

Mr. Eagles, you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jones, unless the major parties do an about face sooner or later this could be UKIP's golden opportunity. Ditch green ideology, frack away, burn coal, lower energy prices, create jobs and increase security of supply.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Educating?

Mr. Eagles, you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

I've been outraged by a friend who said to me last night that Napoleon was the greatest military tactician in history.

Edit and Putin comparing Stalin to that great Englishman, Olly Cromwell.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, although it's probably too late this year you might be interested in buying him this book for next Christmas:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scipio-Africanus-Greater-Than-Napoleon/dp/0306813637/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1387530341&sr=8-1&keywords=scipio+napoleon

I still haven't made much progress with the first part of Dodge's biography of Napoleon. From the comments the author has made it sounds like Napoleon did incredibly well, then got cocky and buggered it all up.

Napoleon cannot possibly match the likes of Alexander, Hannibal or Scipio.

MrJones

DaemonBarber said:

MrJones said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

Last Nights share of the vote
6 of 9 results in

#CONSERVATIVES 33.6%
#UKIP 27.1%
#LABOUR 18.1%
#LIBDEMS 16%
#INDY 3.1%
#GREENS 2.1%

National Prediction: CON majority 54

UKIP 73 seats
Labour 148

Derbyshire North East Derbyshire UKIP gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Morley and Outwood West Yorkshire CON gain from LAB : Ed Balls

Only 2 UKIP gains from CON...

ukip effect = tory first, labour worst - hence the spin on here

I think what we are seeing here is classic protest vote behavior.

Lab types who would never dream of voting for the blues being attracted by he populist anti immigration and "screw them all" rhetoric, as well as the disaffected Tories wanting to get a vote on the EU etc.

Quite how much of this will last once the GE proper comes around i'm not sure, but my guess is not enough for any GE gains by UKIP.

what we're seeing (imo) is a difference in the *speed* of switching disguising that the potential *scale* of switching is either similar or actually higher on the labour side.

OldKingCole

JackW said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Do not read this TSE...

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/premier-league/news/article/312/9080748/spurs-the-value-after-over-reaction

I made the same point here.

I've backed Spurs to qualify for a top 4 place.

Ahead of whom?

Burnley ??

That's next year!

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, although it's probably too late this year you might be interested in buying him this book for next Christmas:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scipio-Africanus-Greater-Than-Napoleon/dp/0306813637/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1387530341&sr=8-1&keywords=scipio+napoleon

I still haven't made much progress with the first part of Dodge's biography of Napoleon. From the comments the author has made it sounds like Napoleon did incredibly well, then got cocky and buggered it all up.

Napoleon cannot possibly match the likes of Alexander, Hannibal or Scipio.

Napoleon was French. That's all you need to know about his military prowess.

Pulpstar

The anti-UKIP value bet is surely the 2/5 that UKIP will not win a by-election before GE2015.

Come GE2015 there will be 650 seats. By elections ? 7 maybe on average ?

And they could be in very safe Labour/Tory seats. OK So if one pops up in Boston then UKIP may well be favourites, but one could just as easily pop up in hmm Portsmouth South? which should be a Lib Dem hold. Or Redcar which Labour will win. Or.. or indeed.

MarkSenior

The West Lindsey result was Ind/No Description ( Day ) gain from Conservative
Ind 529 Con 219 Lib Dem 148 UKIP 138
A couple of minor results
Frome TC College ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative
Winsford TC Lib Dem gain from Labour
Camborne TC Treswithian ward 2 seats 1 Con hold 1 Lab hold Lab 168 Con 154 MK 127 Ind 120 MK 109

MrJones

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jones, unless the major parties do an about face sooner or later this could be UKIP's golden opportunity. Ditch green ideology, frack away, burn coal, lower energy prices, create jobs and increase security of supply.

Yes, they have to take account of the majority still believing the BBC version but plans to switch leccy off to industry to prevent blackouts should help with changing that.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, he was no match for a British footwear designer.

DaemonBarber

Massively and bewilderingly OT....

My lovely wife gave me a new car DAB stereo for my birthday. And as a result my journeys to work are significantly improved. I'm not generally a fan of commercial radio at all, but Planet Rock is just amazing. And their iPhone app is good too.

\m/^_^\m/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Barber, I used to listen to Planet Rock quite a lot. Don't really listen to the radio much now.

Does Alice Cooper still have his show in the evenings?

DaemonBarber

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barber, I used to listen to Planet Rock quite a lot. Don't really listen to the radio much now.

Does Alice Cooper still have his show in the evenings?

Indeed he does...

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, although it's probably too late this year you might be interested in buying him this book for next Christmas:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scipio-Africanus-Greater-Than-Napoleon/dp/0306813637/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1387530341&sr=8-1&keywords=scipio+napoleon

I still haven't made much progress with the first part of Dodge's biography of Napoleon. From the comments the author has made it sounds like Napoleon did incredibly well, then got cocky and buggered it all up.

Napoleon cannot possibly match the likes of Alexander, Hannibal or Scipio.

Napoleon was French. That's all you need to know about his military prowess.

Well, he certainly did well at first, and indeed for a while. From my very limited knowledge ….. skimpy overview really ……. getting cocky and buggering it up seems about right. Did he ever really recover from the Russian disaster?

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, although it's probably too late this year you might be interested in buying him this book for next Christmas:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Scipio-Africanus-Greater-Than-Napoleon/dp/0306813637/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1387530341&sr=8-1&keywords=scipio+napoleon

I still haven't made much progress with the first part of Dodge's biography of Napoleon. From the comments the author has made it sounds like Napoleon did incredibly well, then got cocky and buggered it all up.

Napoleon cannot possibly match the likes of Alexander, Hannibal or Scipio.

Napoleon was French. That's all you need to know about his military prowess.

Well, he certainly did well at first, and indeed for a while. From my very limited knowledge ….. skimpy overview really ……. getting cocky and buggering it up seems about right. Did he ever really recover from the Russian disaster?

Nope.

Never march on Moscow. As Herr Hitler also found out.

Morris_Dancer

The Blitzkrieg wasn't really designed for a country several thousand miles long.

TheScreamingEagles

Time for me to educate the PB masses in my role as Chief Historian of PB.

French Military history in a nutshell

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/text/france.html

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, chief historian? Ha. You're the unruly magister equitum to my masterful Cunctator.

Amusing link, though.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, chief historian? Ha. You're the unruly magister equitum to my masterful Cunctator.

Amusing link, though.

My proudest moment this year was getting a reference about Crassus into a thread header I wrote about Syria.

Scrapheap_as_was

V poor PSBR numbers on first reading...

Disappointing!

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

The anti-UKIP value bet is surely the 2/5 that UKIP will not win a by-election before GE2015.

Come GE2015 there will be 650 seats. By elections ? 7 maybe on average ?

And they could be in very safe Labour/Tory seats. OK So if one pops up in Boston then UKIP may well be favourites, but one could just as easily pop up in hmm Portsmouth South? which should be a Lib Dem hold. Or Redcar which Labour will win. Or.. or indeed.

BETTING POST

I have just noted that strong UKIP target Louth and Horncastle has an MP who is 83 years old. If there was a by-election here then UKIP would be extremely strong.

Luckily William Hill has the other side of the UKIP value equation. They are 7/2 for UKIP to win a by-election.

Advice is to take the 2/5 at Paddy Power for 5 units and Hills at 7/2 for 1.35 units creating a risk free return on the No side at 9%.

Stuart_Dickson

Paddy Power - Thurrock

Lab 1/6
Con 7/2
UKIP 16/1
LD 100/1

[Deleted User]

That French military history site is very funny!

"Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without an accordion. All you do is leave behind a lot of noisy baggage."

:-)

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time for me to educate the PB masses in my role as Chief Historian of PB.

French Military history in a nutshell

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/text/france.html

It has been suggested to me that Britain won WWII, the Americans only having come on as a substitute when the French were injured.

It's also been suggested somewhere that the British won the American War of Independence, since it was British (indeed largely English) colonists fighting Hanoverian mercenaries

Scrapheap_as_was

No Malky at the Cardiff press con.... place taken by asst manager..

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

The anti-UKIP value bet is surely the 2/5 that UKIP will not win a by-election before GE2015.

Come GE2015 there will be 650 seats. By elections ? 7 maybe on average ?

And they could be in very safe Labour/Tory seats. OK So if one pops up in Boston then UKIP may well be favourites, but one could just as easily pop up in hmm Portsmouth South? which should be a Lib Dem hold. Or Redcar which Labour will win. Or.. or indeed.

BETTING POST

I have just noted that strong UKIP target Louth and Horncastle has an MP who is 83 years old. If there was a by-election here then UKIP would be extremely strong.

Luckily William Hill has the other side of the UKIP value equation. They are 7/2 for UKIP to win a by-election.

Advice is to take the 2/5 at Paddy Power for 5 units and Hills at 7/2 for 1.35 units creating a risk free return on the No side at 9%.

I'm all in favour of free money, but the life expectancy of individual 83 year olds is pretty good. Your analysis was right first time round in my view, and I've put the maximum I can on with Paddy Power.

I won't be retiring to Rio on the proceeds though.

[Deleted User]

Erm...I'd contend that the winner of WW2 was the Soviet Union and, much as it might hurt Anglo-Saxon pride, the entire western front and British / American involvement was pretty much a side-show to the main event in the East.

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

The anti-UKIP value bet is surely the 2/5 that UKIP will not win a by-election before GE2015.

Come GE2015 there will be 650 seats. By elections ? 7 maybe on average ?

And they could be in very safe Labour/Tory seats. OK So if one pops up in Boston then UKIP may well be favourites, but one could just as easily pop up in hmm Portsmouth South? which should be a Lib Dem hold. Or Redcar which Labour will win. Or.. or indeed.

BETTING POST

I have just noted that strong UKIP target Louth and Horncastle has an MP who is 83 years old. If there was a by-election here then UKIP would be extremely strong.

Luckily William Hill has the other side of the UKIP value equation. They are 7/2 for UKIP to win a by-election.

Advice is to take the 2/5 at Paddy Power for 5 units and Hills at 7/2 for 1.35 units creating a risk free return on the No side at 9%.

I'm all in favour of free money, but the life expectancy of individual 83 year olds is pretty good. Your analysis was right first time round in my view, and I've put the maximum I can on with Paddy Power.

I won't be retiring to Rio on the proceeds though.

I suppose I might have reduced my £20 to £7, but Hey Ho. Odds are in to 1/4 now.

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, as it's the festive season I thought I'd post a short video about an old but well-loved Christmas tale: Die Hard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnHKv2G0wCw